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NASA NTRS2017

Variability and Quasi-Decadal Changes in the Methane Budget over the Period 2000-2012

Following the recent Global Carbon Project (GCP) synthesis of the decadal methane (CH4) budget over 2000- 2012, we analyse here the same dataset with a focus on quasi-decadal and inter-annual variability in CH4 emissions. The GCP dataset integrates results from top-down studies (exploiting atmospheric observations within an atmospheric inverse-modelling framework) and bottom-up models (including process-based models for estimating land surface emissions and atmospheric chemistry), inventories of anthropogenic emissions, and data-driven approaches. The annual global methane emissions from top-down studies, which by construction match the observed methane growth rate within their uncertainties, all show an increase in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2012, but this increase is not linear over the 13 years. Despite differences between individual studies, the mean emission anomaly of the top-down ensemble shows no significant trend in total methane emissions over the period 2000-2006, during the plateau of atmospheric methane mole fractions, and also over the period 2008-2012, during the renewed atmospheric methane increase. However, the top-down ensemble mean produces an emission shift between 2006 and 2008, leading to 22 [16-32] Tg CH4 yr(exp -1) higher methane emissions over the period 2008-2012 compared to 2002-2006. This emission increase mostly originated from the tropics, with a smaller contribution from mid-latitudes and no significant change from boreal regions. The regional contributions remain uncertain in top-down studies. Tropical South America and South and East Asia seem to contribute the most to the emission increase in the tropics. However, these two regions have only limited atmospheric measurements and remain therefore poorly constrained. The sectorial partitioning of this emission increase between the periods 2002-2006 and 2008-2012 differs from one atmospheric inversion study to another. However, all top-down studies suggest smaller changes in fossil fuel emissions (from oil, gas, and coal industries) compared to the mean of the bottom-up inventories included in this study. This difference is partly driven by a smaller emission change in China from the top-down studies compared to the estimate in the Emission Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGARv4.2) inventory, which should be revised to smaller values in a near future. We apply isotopic signatures to the emission changes estimated for individual studies based on five emission sectors and find that for six individual top-down studies (out of eight) the average isotopic signature of the emission changes is not consistent with the observed change in atmospheric 13CH4. However, the partitioning in emission change derived from the ensemble mean is consistent with this isotopic constraint. At the global scale, the top-down ensemble mean suggests that the dominant contribution to the resumed atmospheric CH4 growth after 2006 comes from microbial sources (more from agriculture and waste sectors than from natural wetlands), with an uncertain but smaller contribution from fossil CH4 emissions. In addition, a decrease in biomass burning emissions (in agreement with the biomass burning emission databases) makes the balance of sources consistent with atmospheric 13CH4 observations. In most of the top-down studies included here, OH concentrations are considered constant over the years (seasonal variations but without any inter-annual variability). As a result, the methane loss (in particular through OH oxidation) varies mainly through the change in methane concentrations and not its oxidants. For these reasons, changes in the methane loss could not be properly investigated in this study, although it may play a significant role in the recent atmospheric methane changes as briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

Saunois, Marielle↗

NASA NTRS1989

Manipulation strategies for massive space payloads

Control for the bracing strategy is being examined. It was concluded earlier that trajectory planning must be improved to best achieve the bracing motion. Very interesting results were achieved which enable the inverse dynamics of flexible arms to be calculated for linearized motion in a more efficient manner than previously published. The desired motion of the end point beginning at t=0 and ending at t=t sub f is used to calculate the required torque at the joint. The solution is separated into a causal function that is zero for t is less than 0 and an accusal function which is zero for t is greater than t sub f. A number of alternative end point trajectories were explored in terms of the peak torque required, the amount of anticipatory action, and other issues. The single link case is the immediate subject and an experimental verification of that case is being performed. Modeling with experimental verification of closed chain dynamics continues. Modeling effort has pointed out inaccuracies that result from the choice of numerical techniques used to incorporate the closed chain constraints when modeling our experimental prototype RALF (Robotic Arm Large and Flexible). Results were compared to TREETOPS, a multi body code. The experimental verification work is suggesting new ways to make comparisons with systems having structural linearity and joint and geometric nonlinearity. The generation of inertial forces was studied with a small arm that will damp the large arm's vibration.

Book, Wayne J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiobjective Multidisciplinary Optimization of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports Using Multifidelity Models

A multidisciplinary optimization (MDO) method has been developed to design a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based low-boom configuration that can be obtained from a Pareto solution of a low-fidelity multiobjective MDO problem with mission constraints. This paper refines the developed MDO method using multifidelity models for CFD-based multiobjective MDO. The refined MDO method can generate a low-boom configuration that satisfies the mission requirements, has the lowest takeoff gross weight and the longest range for the low-boom mission, trims the low-boom cruise flight with fuel redistributions, and has a reversed equivalent area distribution closely matching a low-boom target with ground noise level below 70 PLdB. The validity of the refined MDO method is demonstrated by a design study of a low-boom supersonic transport that carries 40 passengers, flies a low-boom mission with cruise Mach of 1.7 and range of 3500 nm, and cruises overwater at Mach 1.8 with range of 3882 nm. Moreover, the refined MDO method eliminates the difference between the assumed cruise weight for CFD-based low-boom inverse design optimization and the estimated cruise weight of the optimal inverse design solution with respect to the mission requirements.

multidisciplinary optimization↗

NASA NTRS1998

A Framework for a Supervisory Expert System for Robotic Manipulators with Joint-Position Limits and Joint-Rate Limits

This report addresses the problem of path planning and control of robotic manipulators which have joint-position limits and joint-rate limits. The manipulators move autonomously and carry out variable tasks in a dynamic, unstructured and cluttered environment. The issue considered is whether the robotic manipulator can achieve all its tasks, and if it cannot, the objective is to identify the closest achievable goal. This problem is formalized and systematically solved for generic manipulators by using inverse kinematics and forward kinematics. Inverse kinematics are employed to define the subspace, workspace and constrained workspace, which are then used to identify when a task is not achievable. The closest achievable goal is obtained by determining weights for an optimal control redistribution scheme. These weights are quantified by using forward kinematics. Conditions leading to joint rate limits are identified, in particular it is established that all generic manipulators have singularities at the boundary of their workspace, while some have loci of singularities inside their workspace. Once the manipulator singularity is identified the command redistribution scheme is used to compute the closest achievable Cartesian velocities. Two examples are used to illustrate the use of the algorithm: A three link planar manipulator and the Unimation Puma 560. Implementation of the derived algorithm is effected by using a supervisory expert system to check whether the desired goal lies in the constrained workspace and if not, to evoke the redistribution scheme which determines the constraint relaxation between end effector position and orientation, and then computes optimal gains.

Mutambara, Arthur G. O.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Multiobjective Multidisciplinary Optimization of Low-Boom Supersonic Transports Using Multifidelity Models

A multidisciplinary optimization (MDO) method has been developed to design a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based low-boom configuration that can be obtained from a Pareto solution of a low-fidelity multiobjective MDO problem with mission constraints. This paper refines the developed MDO method by using multifidelity models for CFD-based multiobjective MDO and a better method for the system-level trade between the target low boom ground noise level and the overland range. The refined MDO method can generate a low-boom configuration that satisfies the mission requirements, has the lowest takeoff gross weight and the longest range for the low-boom mission, trims the low-boom cruise flight with fuel redistributions, and has a reversed equivalent area distribution closely matching a low-boom target with ground noise level below 70 PLdB. The validity of the refined MDO method is demonstrated by a design study of a low-boom supersonic transport that carries 40 passengers, flies a low-boom mission with cruise Mach of 1.7 and range of 3500 nm, and cruises overwater at Mach 1.8 with range of 3882 nm. Moreover, the refined MDO method eliminates the difference between the assumed cruise weight for CFD-based low-boom inverse design optimization and the estimated cruise weight of the optimal inverse design solution with respect to the mission requirements.

MDO↗

NASA NTRS2012

Spatial and Temporal Variations in Titan's Surface Temperatures from Cassini CIRS Observations

We report a wide-ranging study of Titan's surface temperatures by analysis of the Moon's outgoing radiance through a spectral window in the thermal infrared at 19 mm (530/cm) characterized by lower atmospheric opacity. We begin by modeling Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) far infrared spectra collected in the period 2004-2010, using a radiative transfer forward model combined with a non-linear optimal estimation inversion method. At low-latitudes, we agree with the HASI near-surface temperature of about 94 K at 101S (Fulchignoni et al., 2005). We find a systematic decrease from the equator toward the poles, hemispherically asymmetric, of approx. 1 K at 60 deg. south and approx. 3 K at 60 deg. north, in general agreement with a previous analysis of CIRS data and with Voyager results from the previous northern winter. Subdividing the available database, corresponding to about one Titan season, into 3 consecutive periods, small seasonal changes of up to 2 K at 60 deg N became noticeable in the results. In addition, clear evidence of diurnal variations of the surface temperatures near the equator are observed for the first time: we find a trend of slowly increasing temperature from the morning to the early afternoon and a faster decrease during the night. The diurnal change is approx. 1.5 K, in agreement with model predictions for a surface with a thermal inertia between 300 and 600 J/ sq. m s (exp -1/2) / K. These results provide important constraints on coupled surface-atmosphere models of Titan's meteorology and atmospheric dynamic.

titan↗

NASA NTRS2021

Bias-Correcting Carbon Fluxes Derived From Land-Surface Satellite Data for Retrospective and Near Real-Time Assimilation Systems

The ability to monitor and understand natural and anthropogenic variability in atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO2) is a growing need of many stakeholders across the world. Systems that assimilate satellite observations, given their short latency and dense spatial coverage, into high resolution global models are valuable, if not essential, tools for addressing this need. A notable drawback of modern assimilation systems is the long latency of many vital in-put datasets, e.g., inventories, in situ measurements, and re-processed remote-sensing data can trail the current date by months to years. This paper describes techniques for bias-correcting surface fluxes derived from satellite observations of the Earth’s surface to be consistent with constraints from inventories and in situ CO2 datasets. The techniques are applicable in both short-term forecasts and retrospective simulations, thus taking advantage of the coverage and short latency of satellite data while reproducing the major features of long-term inventory and in situ records. Our approach begins with a standard collection of diagnostic fluxes which incorporate a variety of remote-sensing driver data, viz. vegetation indices, fire radiative power, and nighttime lights. We then apply an empirical sink so that global budgets of the diagnostic fluxes match given atmospheric and oceanic growth rates for each year. This step removes coherent, systematic flux errors that produce biases inCO2which mask the signals an assimilation system hopes to capture. Depending on the simulation mode, the empirical sink uses different choices of atmospheric growth rates: estimates based on observations in retrospective mode and projections based on seasonal fore-casts of sea surface temperature in forecasting mode. The retrospective fluxes, when used in simulations with NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS), reproduce marine boundary layer measurements with comparable skill to those using fluxes from a modern inversion system. The forecasted fluxes show promising accuracy in their application to the analysis of changes in the carbon cycle as they occur.

CO2↗

NASA NTRS2004

Intelligent Control for the BEES Flyer

This paper describes the effort to provide a preliminary capability analysis and a neural network based adaptive flight control system for the JPL-led BEES aircraft project. The BEES flyer was envisioned to be a small, autonomous platform with sensing and control systems mimicking those of biological systems for the purpose of scientific exploration on the surface of Mars. The platform is physically tightly constrained by the necessity of efficient packing within rockets for the trip to Mars. Given the physical constraints, the system is not an ideal configuration for aerodynamics or stability and control. The objectives of this effort are to evaluate the aerodynamics characteristics of the existing design, to make recommendaaons as to potential improvements and to provide a control system that stabilizes the existing aircraft for nominal flight and damaged conditions. Towards this several questions are raised and analyses are presented to arrive at answers to some of the questions raised. CART3D, a high-fidelity inviscid analysis package for conceptual and preliminary aerodynamic design, was used to compute a parametric set of solutions over the expected flight domain. Stability and control derivatives were extracted from the database and integrated with the neural flight control system. The Integrated Vehicle Modeling Environment (IVME) was also used for estimating aircraft geometric, inertial, and aerodynamic characteristics. A generic neural flight control system is used to provide adaptive control without the requirement for extensive gain scheduling or explicit system identification. The neural flight control system uses reference models to specify desired handling qualities in the roll, pitch, and yaw axes, and incorporates both pre-trained and on-line learning neural networks in the inverse model portion of the controller. Results are presented for the BEES aircraft in the subsonic regime for terrestrial and Martian environments.

Krishnakumar, K.↗

NASA NTRS1997

Rendering Three-Dimensional Solar Coronal Structures

An X-ray or EUV image of the corona or chromosphere is a 2D representation of an extended 3D complex for which a general inversion process is impossible. A specific model must be incorporated in order to understand the full 3D structure. We approach this problem by modeling a set of optically-thin 3D plasma flux tubes which we render these as synthetic images. The resulting images allow the interpretation of the X-ray/EUV observations to obtain information on (1) the 3D structure of X-ray images, i.e., the geometric structure of the flux tubes, and on (2) the internal structure using specific plasma characteristics, i.e., the physical structure of the flux tubes. The data-analysis technique uses magnetograms to characterize photospheric magnetic fields and extrapolation techniques to form the field lines. Using a new set of software tools, we have generated 3D flux tube structures around these field lines and integrated the plasma emission along the line of sight to obtain a rendered image. A set of individual flux-tube images is selected by a non-negative least-squares technique to Provide a match with an observed X-ray image. The scheme minimizes the squares of the differences between the synthesized image and the observed image with a non-negative constraint on the coefficients of the brightness of the individual flux-tube loops. The derived images are used to determine the specific photospheric foot points and physical data, i.e., scaling laws for densities and loop lengths. The development has led to Computer efficient integration and display software that is compatible for comparison with observations (e.g., Yohkoh SXT data, NIXT, or EIT). This analysis is important in determining directly the magnetic field configuration, which provides the structure of coronal loops, and indirectly the electric currents or waves, which provide the energy for the heating of the plasma. We have used very simple assumptions (i.e., potential magnetic fields and isothermal corona) to provide an initial test of the techniques before complex models are introduced. We have separated the physical and geometric contributions of the emission for a set of flux tubes and concentrated, in this initial study, on the geometric contributions by making approximations to the physical contributions. The initial results are consistent with the scaling laws derived from Yohkoh SXT data.

Gary, G. Allen↗

NASA NTRS2011

Deep Moonquake Focal Mechanisms: Recovery and Implications

A defining characteristic of deep moonquakes is their tendency to occur with tidal periodicity, prompting previous studies to infer that they are related to the buildup and release of tidal stress within the Moon. In studies of tidal forcing, a key constraint is the focal mechanism: the fault parameters describing the type of failure moonquakes represent. The quality of the lunar seismic data and the limited source/receiver geometries of the Apollo seismic network prohibit the determination of deep moonquake fault parameters using first-motion polarities, as is typically done in terrestrial seismology. Without being able to resolve tidal stress onto a known failure plane, we can examine only gross qualities of the tidal stress tensor with respect to moonquake occurrence, so we cannot fully address the role of tidal stress in moonquake generation. We will examine the extent to which shear (S) and compression (P) wave amplitude ratios can constrain moonquake fault geometry by determining whether, for a given cluster, there exists a focal mechanism that can produce a radiation pattern consistent with the amplitudes measured by the Apollo instruments. Amplitudes are read in the ray coordinate frame, directly from seismograms for which the P and S arrivals are clearly identifiable on all long-period channels of the four Apollo stations. We apply an empirical station correction to account for site effects and the differences between P- and S-wave attenuation. Instead of focusing on the best fitting solution only, we formulate the inverse problem using a falsification criterion: all source orientations that do not reproduce the observed SV/P ratios within an error margin derived from the uncertainty of amplitude readings are rejected. All others are accepted as possible solutions. The inversion is carried out using an exhaustive grid search on a regular grid with predefined step size, encompassing all possible combinations of strike, dip and slip. To assess the sensitivity of the inversion for the uncertainty of the lunar interior structure, we carry out repeated inversions with different velocity structures. Our data set consist of a total of 106 events from 25 deep moonquake clusters. The largest contribution of 37 events originates from the most active cluster, A001, while other clusters are represented by 1 to 9 events. Since the definition of a cluster implies that all events share the same source orientation, a comparison of the inversion results of all events from one cluster will reduce ambiguities of the inversion. Once we obtain a suite of fault parameters for a given source, we can attempt to further constrain the focal mechanism with refined analyses of tidal stresses and predictions based on synthetic seismograms.

Knapmeyer, Martin↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Inferred Sea Level Prediction in the NASA GMAO Seasonal Forecasting System

Reliable predictions of sea level anomalies on seasonal timescales with lead times of 1 to 9 months may have relevance to stakeholders – for example, in the advance deployment of resources for coastal flood mitigation. Routine prediction and analysis may also highlight physical processes associated with sea level change and modeling capabilities on seasonal and other timescales. These forecasts may represent interannual changes in the seasonal slope of the ocean surface, teleconnection effects such as the El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and variations in seasonal hydrology including precipitation and coastal runoff. Coupled atmosphere/ocean models are routinely used in the seasonal prediction of temperature anomalies, precipitation anomalies, sea ice cover, and climate indices such as the Niño3.4 predictions under the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) protocol. Within the limits of their configuration, these complex Earth-system models have a potential for depicting regional changes in oceanic column properties, including the sea surface height. Seasonal prediction models generally have no representation of long-term mass contributions from melting land ice, or changes in vertical land motion; their output may be more specifically characterized as predictions of the ocean dynamic sea level. In practice however, the sea surface height prognostic variable is substantially compromised by the forecast model response to initial conditions. Imbalances between the initial, observed hydrologic cycle and the forecast model state produce abrupt adjustments in the model sea surface height. As a result, most seasonal prediction systems employ a constraint on the globally-averaged sea surface height that is applied at each time step. This essentially renders the prognostic sea surface height variable as unserviceable. Several approaches have previously been used to retrieve sea level information from seasonal forecasts beyond the use of the sea surface height variable. Here, we extend a method of relating other prognostic values, including ocean circulation and climate indices, to observed sea level variations. We use the merged altimetry record of the NASA MEaSUREs Gridded Sea Surface Height Anomalies data set and monthly revised local reference gauge observations from the National Oceanography Centre Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level (PSMSL) to evaluate derived prognostic variables from the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office subseasonal-to-seasonal system version 2.1 (GMAO S2S v2.1). We focus on results for the midlatitudes with particular emphasis on US gauge locations. As shown in previous studies, prognostic ENSO-related indices in boreal winter are well correlated with gauge observations for the US west coast, but also for other locations in the southeastern US. Other forecast climate indices such as the North Atlantic Oscillation have relations to sea level that are limited both seasonally and spatially. As expected, surface atmospheric pressure (e.g., inverse barometer effect) is found to be particularly well correlated with observed sea level. We provide a characterization of forecast skill for seasonal sea level with this method.

Richard I Cullather↗

NASA NTRS2012

Recovery of Deep Moonquake Focal Mechanisms

Deep moonquakes are clustered not only in space but also in time: their recurrence times correspond to the durations of the anomalistic and draconic months, with some clusters preferring one of the two periods, while others are active with both periods. A key constraint for the understanding of the connection between the orbital motion of the Moon and its seismic activity is the focal mechanism: the orientation of the fault surface on which failure occurs during the quake. Due to the small aperture of the Apollo seismic network and the strong scattering of seismic waves within the lunar crust, the evaluation of P wave first motions to constrain the strike and dip of the fault planes is not feasible. Instead we evaluate the amplitude ratios of P and S waves. Seismograms are rotated into the P-SV-SH coordinate frame and amplitudes are determined as averages over short time windows after the arrival to reduce the impact of the scattering coda, which is independent of the source orientation. We allow for reversals of the fault motion, as observed for some clusters in previous studies, by taking into account the absolute amplitude only, without sign. An empirical site correction factor is applied to correct for amplitude distortions in the crust. We construct ensembles of fault plane solutions using an exhaustive grid search by accepting all orientations that reproduce the measured amplitude ratios within the observed standard deviations. Since all events of a given cluster are supposed to share the same fault plane, the combination of the individual inversion results further constrains the orientation. We evaluate 106 events from 25 different moonquake clusters. The most active cluster A001 contributes 37 events, while others contribute 1 to 9 events per cluster. Comparison of fault orientations with the variation of the tidal stress results in preferred orientations.

Weber, Renee C.↗

NASA NTRS1995

An Analysis of Neptune's Stratospheric Haze Using High-Phase-Angle Voyager Images

We have inverted high-phase-angle Voyager images of Neptune to determine the atmospheric extinction coefficient as a function of altitude and the scattering phase function at a reference altitude. Comparisons between theoretical model and observations help separate the contributions from molecular Rayleigh and aerosol scattering and help determine the variation of the aerosol size, concentration, and scattering properties with altitude. Further comparisons between models and data allow us to place constraints on the location and composition of the hazes, the concentration and downward flux of certain condensible hydrocarbon gases, the eddy diffusion coefficient in the lower stratosphere, and the thermal profile in parts of Neptune's stratosphere. We find that a distinct stratospheric haze layer exists near 12(sub -1, sup +1) mbar in Neptune's lower stratosphere, most probably due to condensed ethane. The derived stratospheric haze production rate of 1.0(sub -0.3, sup +0.2) x 10(exp -15) g cm(exp -2) sec(exp -1) is substantially lower than photochemical model predictions. Evidence for hazes at higher altitudes also exists. Unlike the situation on Uranus, large particles (0.08-0.11 microns) may be present at high altitudes on Neptune (e.g., near 0.5 mbar), well above the region in which we expect the major hydrocarbon species to condense. Near 28 mbar, the mean particle size is about 0.13(sub -0.02, sup +0.02) microns with a concentration of 5(sub -3, sup +3) particles cm(exp -3). The cumulative haze extinction optical depth above 15 mbar in the clear filter is approx. 3 x 10(exp -3), and much of this extinction is due to scattering rather than absorption; thus, if our limb-scan sites are typical, the hazes cannot account for the stratospheric temperature inversion on Neptune and may not contribute significantly to atmospheric heating. We compare the imaging results with the results from other observations, including those of the Voyager Photopolarimeter Subsystem, and discuss differences between Neptune and Uranus.

Moses, Julianne I.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advancing Satellite-Constrained Modeled Air-Sea CO 2 Fluxes With a Focus on the Strength of the Southern Ocean Carbon Sink

Challenge and Motivation: The ocean plays a critical role in mitigating climate change by removing approximately a quarter of annual anthropogenic CO 2 emissions from the atmosphere. Model-based estimates point to the Southern Ocean as a key marine region, responsible for approximately 40 % of the anthropogenic carbon uptake by the global ocean. However, the contemporary strength of the Southern Ocean carbon sink has recently come into question. On the one hand, airborne-based observations of atmospheric CO 2 gradients indicate that the Southern Ocean represents a strong net sink of atmospheric CO 2 , consistent in magnitude with atmospheric inversion estimates and surface-ocean partial pressure of CO 2 (pCO 2 )-based products. On the other hand, estimates of pCO 2 based on in situ pH measurements taken by biogeochemical profiling floats yield strong wintertime outgassing fluxes that greatly reduce the Southern Ocean’s annually integrated CO 2 uptake. This uncertainty in the strength of the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux and its role in the global carbon cycle hinders our ability to constrain global carbon fluxes, one of the major goals of NASA’s Carbon Monitoring System (CMS). Opportunity: The NASA Ocean Biogeochemical Model (NOBM) produces near-global pCO 2 and air-sea CO 2 flux estimates that are currently included into the NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) models in support of the CMS effort to monitor global carbon fluxes. The NOBM assimilates ocean color data to improve the representation of biogeochemical fluxes and overcome spatial and temporal gaps in the space-based retrievals. Here, we propose to advance the satellite-constrained flux estimates by investigating the uncertainties in the Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux produced by the NOBM, and assess the value that remote sensing ocean color data can have in providing improved estimates of carbon fluxes in the ocean. Our proposed work includes the delivery of refined in situ float-based carbon fluxes to serve as a constraint on the model-based estimates. Taking advantage of the model’s integration of satellite ocean color data to represent multiple phytoplankton groups, we propose to deliver maps of biogenic carbon export specific to each modeled phytoplankton type and investigate the role of ecological plankton complexity in regulating marine carbon uptake and export. Goals: (a) Delivery of seasonally-adjusted float-based Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 fluxes: We will produce updated and improved float-based air-sea CO 2 fluxes that will serve as a bias-reduced float-based constraint to evaluate our model-based estimates of the NOBM. (b) Investigation of uncertainties in Southern Ocean air-sea CO 2 flux from the NOBM: Modeled air-sea carbon fluxes will be evaluated against the updated float product as well as ship- and airborne-based data to identify uncertainties and potential model deficiencies. (c) Delivery of model-based carbon export partitioning by phytoplankton functional types (PFTs): We will produce depth-resolved maps of particulate organic export production integrated for all phytoplankton groups and allocated to each individual PFT in the model. The expected significance of this goal is to quantify the role that the functional-oriented diversity in phytoplankton groups represented in the NOBM plays in regulating air-sea CO 2 fluxes in the Southern Ocean.

Lionel A. Arteaga↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Developments of Thermal Protection Materials to Enable Lower Cost Space Missions

Introduction: Starting with the Commercial Crew Program, a new paradigm has emerged at NASA. Rather than designing rockets and spacecrafts for every mission optimized to achieve science, NASA has begun to use a service-based model and utilizing public-private partnership in developing the vehicles that can bring broader benefits as well as lower the cost for NASA missions. Commercial companies own and operate those vehicles. This allows NASA to not design missions from the bottom up, and has cost, risk, and schedule savings implications. On the other side, the constraints require meeting the requirements in terms of mass, volume, power, etc. By leveraging NASA developed technologies, commercial companies can quickly demonstrate the commercial mission concept, and, through technology transfer, adopt needed technology to address supply chain problems. A downside is that the technology has to be sufficiently mature to be transferred by NASA, which means that it requires significant investment, expertise, and time to develop. Space entities are focused on rapid development with an emphasis on manufacturing and integration innovation with reduced cost and schedule and quick entrance into the market. Thermal Protection Systems (TPS) are mission critical, but their development takes years, and involve access to arc jets or unique test facilities. Therefore, their development is both risky and investment heavy. NASA ARC developed several new TPS materials over the last decade (C-PICA, HEEET, 3MDCP, 3DMAT, ADEPT woven TPS) and brought them to high TPS maturity, making them enablers for commercials space missions from LEO, Lunar Sample Return, Mars, and Venus missions. LEO missions are relevant to future Mars missions due to the comparable entry conditions. External Partners' Missions: C-PICA is a recent improvement on NASA’s heritage PICA lightweight TPS ablator. C-PICA is now considered an enabling technology for New Frontiers and other NASA missions. C-PICA was infused into several missions from external partners. Varda Space Industries’ Winnebago-1 spacecraft successfully returned to Earth from LEO on Feb. 21st, 2024, using a C-PICA heatshield. Inversion Space’s Ray vehicle will test both ARC’s C-PICA and SIRCA TPS materials on a LEO return mission later in 2024. The Kentucky Re-Entry Probe Experiment (KREPE) is another example of a low-cost flight experiment to demonstrate the use of small entry capsules to gather data with three instrumented Kentucky Re-entry and Universal Payload System (KRUPS) capsules. NASA Arc provided C-PICA and Soft-PICA for two of the next KRUPS capsules scheduled to re-enter Earth from the ISS later in 2024. Finally, Rocket Lab’s low-cost mission to Venus, scheduled to launch in December 2024, will search for habitable conditions in Venus’ cloud layer, making use of NASA ARC provided HEEET insulation layer heat shield, and SIRCA backshell TPS materials. Future NASA Missions: NASA’s ability to help commercial missions can lead to future low-cost missions for several reasons: Competition encourages lower cost; technology maturation is now done at an integrated system level; and a common design architecture between commercial and scientific applications requires no specialized engineering design. From an engineering perspective, both of these commercial LEO capsules aforementioned are capable of a Mars entry; the commercial payload mut be replaced with as science payload. Finally, several NASA mission concepts, that could be candidates for future SIMPLEx program calls, such as VATMOS-SR and Nephele, both proposing to target the Venusian atmosphere, would make use of the HEEET insulation layer TPS for part of their heat shield.

TPS materials↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Recent Developments of Thermal Protection Materials to Enable Lower Cost Space Missions

TPS materials↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Radiative Flux Measurements from ARISE: A Comparison with CERES Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Fluxes

Uncertainty in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation fluxes observations are larger in the Arctic than in other regions. These uncertainties are due to the low sun angles and the highly reflective, anisotropic, and heterogeneous surface conditions. Quantifying, attributing, and reducing Arctic TOA radiative flux uncertainty enables a better understanding of the rapidly changing Arctic. To advance this goal, we compare the Cloud and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) TOA radiative fluxes with Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) campaign measurements collected in September 2014. We compare CERES TOA and aircraft radiative flux measurements using two complementary approaches: grid box average fluxes and instantaneously matched footprints. The grid box mean flux comparison indicates an agreement between CERES and aircraft measurements within 2 uncertainty (calibration and inversion) in the longwave for all five grid boxes and for four-of-five grid boxes in the shortwave; shortwave and longwave mean differences are -7.9 and +2.3 Wm‑2, respectively. The comparison of 36 instantaneously matched footprints with aircraft measurements reveals mean differences of -10.5 and 0.4 Wm‑2 in the shortwave and longwave, respectively. To further explore the persistent negative difference in the shortwave, we further quantify the effects of temporal and spatial sampling differences, angular distribution models, and scene identification to CERES-aircraft differences. Our analysis indicates that sampling differences (including scene evolution) account for an additional 1.8 and 1.7% uncertainty in the shortwave and longwave, respectively and indicates no bias. After accounting for this sampling uncertainty, all CERES-aircraft grid box mean fluxes agree within 2 uncertainty. Scene identification errors due to sea ice concentration data set differences exhibit no bias in the shortwave flux difference and indicate the possibility of substantial differences in the CERES fluxes in specific cases with large spatial heterogeneity. Considering the instantaneously matched footprints, we find that the angular distribution models account may account for up to ‑7.3 Wm-2 of the persistent CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference due to systematic differences in the anisotropy for sea ice partly cloudy scenes. Additional analysis using a special scan model with the CERES FM2 instrument suggests a significant view zenith angle dependence of the CERES fluxes for sea ice partly cloudy scenes where shortwave fluxes systematically decrease with increasing view zenith angle; no dependence is found for other scene types. We conclude that (1) spatial heterogeneity and scene temporal evolution substantially limit our ability to use aircraft measurements to place strong constraints on CERES TOA fluxes and (2) that the representation of anisotropy in sea ice partly cloudy scenes is a significant factor contributing to the persistent negative CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference in this comparison and require additional data to analysis fully quantify the potential bias.

Patrick C Taylor↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A comparison between CERES TOA Radiative Fluxes and Airborne Radiative Flux Measurements from ARISE

Uncertainty in top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation fluxes observations are larger in the Arctic than in other regions. These uncertainties are due to the low sun angles and the highly reflective, anisotropic, and heterogeneous surface conditions. Quantifying, attributing, and reducing Arctic TOA radiative flux uncertainty enables a better understanding of the rapidly changing Arctic. To advance this goal, we compare the Cloud and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) TOA radiative fluxes with Arctic Radiation-IceBridge Sea and Ice Experiment (ARISE) campaign measurements collected in September 2014. We compare CERES TOA and aircraft radiative flux measurements using two complementary approaches: grid box average fluxes and instantaneously matched footprints. The grid box mean flux comparison indicates an agreement between CERES and aircraft measurements within 2σ uncertainty (calibration and inversion) in the longwave for all five grid boxes and for four-of-five grid boxes in the shortwave; shortwave and longwave mean differences are -7.9 and +2.3 Wm 2, respectively. The comparison of 36 40 instantaneously matched footprints with aircraft measurements reveals mean differences of -120.25 and -1.00.4 Wm 2 in the shortwave and longwave, respectively. To further explore the persistent negative difference in the shortwave, Wwe further quantify the effects of temporal and spatial sampling differences, angular distribution models, and scene identification to CERES-aircraft differences. Our analysis indicates that sampling differences (including scene evolution) account for an additional 1.8 and 1.7% uncertainty in the shortwave and longwave, respectively and , but indicates no bias. After accounting for this sampling uncertainty, all CERES-aircraft grid box mean fluxes agree within 2σ uncertainty. Scene identification errors due to sea ice concentration data set differences exhibit no bias in the shortwave flux difference and indicate the possibility of substantial differences in the CERES fluxes in specific cases with large spatial heterogeneity. Considering the instantaneously matched footprints, we find that the angular distribution models account may account for up to 7.3 Wm-2 of the persistent CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference due to systematic differences in the anisotropy for sea ice partly cloudy scenes. Additional analysis using a special programmable scan model with the CERES FM2 instrument suggests a significant view zenith angle dependence of the CERES fluxes for sea ice partly cloudy scenes where shortwave fluxes systematically decrease with increasing view zenith angle; no dependence is found for other scene types. We conclude that (1) spatial heterogeneity and scene temporal evolution substantially limit our ability to use aircraft measurements to place strong constraints on CERES TOA fluxes and (2) that the representation of anisotropy in sea ice partly cloudy scenes is likely a significant factor contributing to the persistent negative CERES-aircraft shortwave flux difference in this comparison and require additional data to analysis fully quantify the potential bias.

Patrick C. Taylor↗