Results for “inverse prediction methods” — Page 15

DOE OSTI2023

Investigation of the Role of the Role of Nuclear Physics in Heavy Element Nucleosynthesis, through the Study of Key Reactions, and the Improvement of Theoretical Reaction Rates (Final Report)

Neutrino-driven winds in core-collapse supernovae have been identified as a possible site for the production of elements heavier than iron. Traditionally, these neutrino-driven winds have been proposed as the site of the main r-process. Recent simulations fail to reproduce the conditions required for the main r-process. while they remain a promising site for producing the lightest elements beyond iron, e.g., Sr, Y, and Zr through the νp process. The efficiency of the νp process depends on the hydrodynamical conditions, the electron fraction (which is related to the neutrino properties), and the nuclear reactions on many short-lived nuclei with limited (if at all) experimental information. The reaction rates on these nuclei are based on theoretical predictions using the Hauser-Feshbach model. Recent sensitivity studies have highlighted the importance of neutron-induced reactions on these nuclei along the νp process path. This work aimed to experimentally constrain reaction rates that are known to play a key role in the neutrino-p process nucleosynthesis. A secondary subsequently-added objective was to start the implementation of techniques that improve the description of nuclear properties in the Hauser-Feshbach model by extending the microscopic nuclear level density description offered via the shell model to high excitation energies without using experiment-based renormalizations. The main objective of this work was the experimental constraint of the 56 Ni(n,p) 56 Co reaction rate via a measurement of the inverse reaction 56 Co(p,n) 56 Ni at the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory (NSCL) and later the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB). This reaction is considered the key one for determining the yields possible by the neutrino-p process. A technique for this type of measurement in inverse kinematics at low energies did not exist before this work. The work also had two secondary objectives. First, to contribute to efforts to measure the same reaction in direct kinematics using a radioactive target at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), and second, to advance work to implement shell-model-deduced microscopic level densities in Hauser-Feshbach calculations. The project has resulted in the development of the first technique to perform (p,n) cross-section measurements in relevant-for-astrophysics low energies in inverse kinematics using a magnetic spectrometer or separator, and neutron detectors for neutron tagging. It has also resulted in the precise measurement of the cross-section of the 40 Ar(p,n) 40 K reaction in a proof-of-principle experiment realized by using a beam-line quadrupole of the ReA3 accelerator of NSCL/FRIB. As part of this project the technique was successfully adapted to make use of the superior acceptance of the Separator for Capture Reactions (SECAR) at FRIB. In this project, the required experimental setup simulations and beam optics were developed and tested with the measurement of the 58 Fe(p,n) 58 Cu reaction cross-section. Additionally, this project contributed with simulation work to the development of a technique to measure (n,p) reactions with radioactive targets at LANL, and which resulted in the measurement of the key 56 Ni(n,p) 56 Co reaction cross-section at neutron energies above ≈1 MeV. Last, the project initiated work in the development of shell model based level densities using the moments method.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

GeoThermalCloud: Cloud Fusion of Big Data and Multi-Physics Models using Machine Learning for Discovery, Exploration, and Development of Hidden Geothermal Resources

The primary goals of this project are exploring hidden geothermal resources in the U.S.A. and designing profitable enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Many processes and parameters control geothermal exploration and energy production from geothermal fields. Diverse datasets (e.g., geology, geochemistry, geophysics, satellite, airborne geophysics) are available to help characterize subsurface geothermal conditions. Sparse and multi-scale characteristics of these datasets prohibit properly leveraging these datasets for geothermal exploration and profitable EGS design. Recent advancements in machine learning (ML) promise to resolve these issues. The tremendous challenges and risks of geothermal exploration and production bring the demand for novel ML methods and tools that can (1) analyze large field datasets, (2) assimilate model simulations (large inputs and outputs), (3) process sparse datasets, (4) perform transfer learning (between sites with different exploratory levels), (5) extract hidden geothermal signatures in the field and simulation data, (6) label geothermal resources and processes, (7) identify high-value data acquisition targets, and (8) guide geothermal exploration and production by selecting optimal exploration, production, and drilling strategies. To address these necessities, ML-based geothermal resources exploration and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) design tools have been developed. The exploration tool is called GeoThermalCloud and EGS design tool is called GeoDT-ML. GeoThermalCloud (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl) utilizes a LANL unsupervised ML platform called SmartTensors (https://tensors.lanl.gov/) to automate data analyses and interpretations by extracting hidden signatures to identify geothermal prospects. Also, it enables the identification of critical measurements needed to identify geothermal resource signatures. Alternatively, GeoDT-ML (https://github.com/SmartTensors/GeoThermalCloud.jl/tree/master/EGS) is an ML-based alternative to GeoDT (https://github.com/GeoDesignTool/GeoDT.git), a fast, simplified multi-physics solver to evaluate EGS project designs in uncertain geologic systems. GeoDT-ML leverages recent advances in deep learning and high-performance computing. It is a faster and simpler version of GeoDT. To make this project a success, we used capabilities of LANL, PNNL, Google, Stanford, and Julia Computing. We analyzed eight datasets of the U.S.A. using GeothermalCloud and demonstrated potential highly prospective geothermal resources and identified key factors defining highly prospective sites. The first data set includes 44 locations in southwest New Mexico and 18 geological, hydrogeological, geophysical, geothermal, geochemical attributes. We defined low- and medium-temperature hydrothermal systems and discovered a new highly prospective site. The second data set analyzed 18 shallow water chemistry attributes at 14,342 locations in the Great Basin. It demarcated modestly, moderately, and highly prospective sites including key attributes for each type of prospectivity. The third data set analyzed Utah FORGE data including satellite (InSAR), geophysical (gravity, seismic), geochemical, and geothermal attributes. Here, we performed prospectivity analysis to identify future drilling locations using geological, geochemical, and geophysical attributes. Maps of temperature at depth and heat flow are constructed based on the available data. Prospectivity maps were generated, and drilling locations were proposed for future geothermal field exploration. The fourth data set analyzed 21 attributes at 120 locations in Tularosa Basin, New Mexico; data comes from past play fairway analyses in this region. ML analyses identified geothermal signatures associated with modestly, moderately, and highly hydrothermal systems. We also defined dominant attributes and spatial distribution of the geothermal signatures. The fifth, sixth, seventh, and eighth datasets include Tohatchi Springs, New Mexico, Hawaii, Brady site, Nevada, and EGS Collab, respectively. Moreover, we coupled GeothermalCloud and magnetotellurics data to pinpoint drilling locations for developing geothermal projects in the Tularosa Basin, New Mexico. GeothermalCloud found potential prospective locations for geothermal resources near White Sands Missile Range and McGregor Range at Fort Bliss. Magnetotellurics data determined the potential depth (~1800m) of geothermal prospects at McGregor Range based on apparent resistivity structures/layers in the subsurface. The McGregor Range consists of three resistivity layers and two resistivity structures. Magnetotellurics data also helps identify that the western portion of the McGregor Range has thick and low-resistivity earth materials. The low resistivity to the west is most likely for a fault system. Assuming temperature is consistent with a geothermal reservoir, the west-central part of the McGregor Range has the highest geothermal potential because of the increase in porosity and associated permeability attributed to the interpreted fault system. Also, we devised a coupling strategy between a process model and GeothermalCloud to characterize hydrogeological conditions and geothermal conditions, respectively. The process model characterizes hydrogeological and geothermal conditions on highly prospective geothermal sites provided by GeothermalCloud. We developed a physics-informed neural network (PINN) version of the Burns equation that can be easily coupled with GeothermalCloud. Furthermore, we performed an optimal design decision maximizing the economic value of an EGS power plant. This study optimized the range of well spacing between injection and production wells maximizing net present value in dollars (NPV). For this task, we used the GeoDT to simulate the Utah FORGE EGS development cycle from the initial well design to the end of production. Next, we accomplished another crucial task, which is predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs. Predicting permeability of geothermal reservoirs is a non-trivial task because of huge computational runtime of simulation and lack of measurements. To avoid these limitations, we used easy-to-measure chemical concentrations in the subsurface as measurement data and convolutional neural network based ML model of a high-fidelity model. Next, we predicted permeability using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. We found that Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation predicts permeability with a high certainty if the prediction zone in the simulation area has chemical concentration data. Finally, we analyzed the DOE funded INGENIOUS and GeoDAWN projects data. For discovering hidden geothermal systems in the Great Basin, the INGENIOUS project accumulated old data, collected new data, and released them in 2022. The dataset includes a total of 24 geological, geophysical, and geochemical attributes. Data resolution and scale significantly vary prohibiting an appropriate usage. To avoid such limitations, we brought all data in the same resolution and scale by applying the inverse distance weighting interpolation technique for predicting data in unsampled locations. Subsequently, we analyzed LiDAR data of the GeoDAWN project. We received data in tiles format. The DOE’s overarching goal is to use ML on LiDAR data for finding favorable geological structures (e.g., step up faults in Brady, Nevada). To serve the purpose, we need to label favorable geologic structures that correspond to LiDAR data. We wrote an algorithm to label the LiDAR data with the favorable geologic structures.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗