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At least 271 records · Page 15

Improving the MJO Forecast of S2S Operation Models by Correcting Their Biases in Linear Dynamics

The operational dynamic subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) models for Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasting mostly still suffer from systematic errors in capturing the MJO's key dynamic features, such as its growth rate and propagation speed. By deriving the linear dynamic operators using the linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach, we propose a method to partly correct the errors in MJO linear dynamic operators to improve the MJO predictions of three operational dynamic S2S models. Correcting the deficiencies of the too-fast decay rates and the unrealistic propagating phase speeds lead to MJO prediction skills being extended by approximately 2–4 days. The improvements are more significant for the models with larger biases in MJO amplitude and propagation. This approach in principle may be extendable to predictions of other types of climate variability such as ENSO on one hand, and possible inclusions of nonlinear dynamics effects on the other hand.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Simulations of ENSO Phase-locking in CMIP5 and CMIP6

The characteristics of El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase-locking in observations and CMIP5 and CMIP6 models are examined in this study. Two metrics based on the peaking month histogram for all El Niño and La Niña events are adopted to delineate the basic features of ENSO phase-locking in terms of the preferred calendar month and strength of this preference. It turns out that most models are poor at simulating the ENSO phase-locking, either showing little peak strengths or peaking at the wrong seasons. By deriving ENSO’s linear dynamics based on the conceptual recharge oscillator (RO) framework through the seasonal linear inverse model (sLIM) approach, various simulated phase-locking behaviors of CMIP models are systematically investigated in comparison with observations. In observations, phase-locking is mainly attributed to the seasonal modulation of ENSO’s SST growth rate. In contrast, in a significant portion of CMIP models, phase-locking is co-determined by the seasonal modulations of both SST growth and phase-transition rates. Further study of the joint effects of SST growth and phase-transition rates suggests that for simulating realistic winter peak ENSO phase-locking with the right dynamics, climate models need to have four key factors in the right combination: (1) correct phase of SST growth rate modulation peaking at the fall; (2) large enough amplitude for the annual cycle in growth rate; (3) amplitude of semi-annual cycle in growth rate needs to be small; and (4) amplitude of seasonal modulation in SST phase-transition rate needs to be small.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A New Snow Module Improves Predictions of the Isotope-Enabled MAIDENiso Forest Growth Model

The representation of snow processes in forest growth models is necessary to accurately predict the hydrological cycle in boreal ecosystems and the isotopic signature of soil water extracted by trees, photosynthates and tree-ring cellulose. Yet, most process-based models do not include a snow module; consequently, their simulations may be biased in cold environments. Here, we modified the MAIDENiso model to incorporate a new snow module that simulates snow accumulation, melting and sublimation, as well as thermal exchanges driving freezing and thawing of the snow and the soil. We tested these implementations in two sites in eastern and western Canada for black spruce (Picea mariana (Mill.) B.S.P.) and white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) forests, respectively. The new snow module improves the skills of the model to predict components of the hydrological cycle. The MAIDENiso model is now able to reproduce the spring discharge peak and to simulate stable oxygen isotopes in tree-ring cellulose more realistically than in the original snow-free version of the model. The new implementation also results in simulations with a higher contribution from the source water on the oxygen isotopic composition of the simulated cellulose, leading to more accurate estimates of cellulose isotopic composition. Future work may include the development of inverse modelling with this new version of MAIDENiso to produce robust reconstructions of the hydrological cycle and isotope processes in cold environments.

Snow processes↗

A forward model-based validation of cardiovascular system identification

We present a theoretical evaluation of a cardiovascular system identification method that we previously developed for the analysis of beat-to-beat fluctuations in noninvasively measured heart rate, arterial blood pressure, and instantaneous lung volume. The method provides a dynamical characterization of the important autonomic and mechanical mechanisms responsible for coupling the fluctuations (inverse modeling). To carry out the evaluation, we developed a computational model of the cardiovascular system capable of generating realistic beat-to-beat variability (forward modeling). We applied the method to data generated from the forward model and compared the resulting estimated dynamics with the actual dynamics of the forward model, which were either precisely known or easily determined. We found that the estimated dynamics corresponded to the actual dynamics and that this correspondence was robust to forward model uncertainty. We also demonstrated the sensitivity of the method in detecting small changes in parameters characterizing autonomic function in the forward model. These results provide confidence in the performance of the cardiovascular system identification method when applied to experimental data.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments

There is an increasing aspiration to utilize machine learning (ML) for various tasks of relevance to national security. ML models have thus far been mostly applied to tasks and domains that, while impactful, have sufficient volume of data. For predictive tasks of national security relevance, ML models of great capacity (ability to approximate nonlinear trends in input-output maps) are often needed to capture the complex underlying physics. However, scientific problems of relevance to national security are often accompanied by various sources of sparse and/or incomplete data, including experiments and simulations, across different regimes of operation, of varying degrees of fidelity, and include noise with different characteristics and/or intensity. State-of-the-art ML models, despite exhibiting superior performance on the task and domain they were trained on, may suffer detrimental loss in performance in such sparse data environments. This report summarizes the results of the Laboratory Directed Research and Development project entitled Trust-Enhancing Probabilistic Transfer Learning for Sparse and Noisy Data Environments. The objective of the project was to develop a new transfer learning (TL) framework that aims to adaptively blend the data across different sources in tackling one task of interest, resulting in enhanced trustworthiness of ML models for mission- and safety-critical systems. The proposed framework determines when it is worth applying TL and how much knowledge is to be transferred, despite uncontrollable uncertainties. The framework accomplishes this by leveraging concepts and techniques from the fields of Bayesian inverse modeling and uncertainty quantification, relying on strong mathematical foundations of probability and measure theories to devise new uncertainty-aware TL workflows.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Bayesian State-Space Modeling Framework for Understanding and Predicting Golden Eagle Movements Using Telemetry Data

Predicting raptor movements through a wind power plant under given atmospheric and topographical conditions is a crucial first step in the overall goal of quantifying the risk of turbine-related collisions and mortalities. Extracting behavioral traits of golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) from telemetry data requires the fusion of noisy and sparse movement data (location, heading, velocity) with a stochastic mathematical representation of the eagles' decision-making processes. In this study, we framed this problem in a Bayesian state-space framework where both observations and decision-making are assumed to be stochastic processes connected through hidden states (mode of flight, intent), and the unknown model parameters are assumed to be random variables that are calibrated using the available telemetry data. This framework allowed for rigorous consideration of underlying uncertainties while allowing for both data and prior biological knowledge to contribute to a probabilistic and predictive agent-based movement model. We implemented and applied the Bayesian framework to understand movement behavior of 23 GPS-tagged golden eagles travelling in the western US for years 2019 and 2020. Our preliminary findings show that the Bayesian state-space framework provides a robust inverse modeling apparatus to decode eagle behavioral characteristics from telemetry data. This study was primarily aimed at verifying and validating the framework with selected golden eagle tracks (both long- and short-ranged), with future research aimed at extending the framework to include multi-mode flight, consideration of atmospheric data and uplift mechanisms, eagle-to-eagle interaction, and eagle-to-turbine interaction.

Bayesian modeling↗

Crustal Magnetization Model of Maud Rise in the Southwest Indian Ocean

We modeled the crustal magnetization for the Maud Rise in the south-west Indian Ocean off the coast of East Antarctica using magnetic observations from the Oersted satellite and near-surface surveys complied by the Antarctic Digital Magnetic Anomaly Project (ADMAP). A new inversion modeling scheme of the multi-altitude anomaly fields suggests that the magnetic effects due to crustal thickness variations and remanence involving the normal polarity Cretaceous Quiet Zone (KQZ) become increasingly dominant with altitude. The magnetic crustal thickness effects were modeled in the Oersted data using crustal thickness variations derived from satellite altitude gravity data. Remanent magnetization modeling of the residual Oersted and near-surface magnetic anomalies supports extending the KQZ eastwards to the Astrid Ridge. The remaining near-surface anomalies involve crustal features with relatively high frequency effects that are strongly attenuated at satellite altitudes. The crustal modeling can be extended by the satellite magnetic anomalies across the Indian Ocean Ridge for insight on the crustal properties of the conjugate Agulhas Plateau. The modeling supports the Jurassic reconstruction of Gondwana when the African Limpopo-Zambezi and East Antarctic Princess Astrid coasts were connected as part of a relatively demagnetized crustal block.

Kim, Hyung Rae↗

Retrieval of Surface Directional Reflectance Properties Using Ground Level Multiangle Measurements

Knowledge of the directional reflectance properties of natural surfaces such as soils and vegetation canopies is essential for classification studies and canopy model inversion. Atmospheric correction schemes, using various levels of approximation, are described to retrieve surface bidirectional reflectance factors (BRFs) and directional-hemispherical reftectances (albedos)from multiangle radiance measurements taken at ground level. The retrieval schemes are tested on simulated data incorporating realistic surface BRFs and atmospheric models containing aerosols. Sensitivity of the atmospherically corrected BRFs and associated directional-hemispherical reflectances to various aerosol properties and the sun-view geometry is illustrated. A measurement strategy for obtaining highly accurate surface reflectance properties also is examined in the context of instrument radiametric calibration, knowledge of the atmospheric properties, and sun-view angular coverage.

Martonchik, John V.↗

Thermal remote sensing of surface soil water content with partial vegetation cover for incorporation into climate models

This study outlines a method for the estimation of regional patterns of surface moisture availability (M(sub 0)) and fractional vegetation (Fr) in the presence of spatially variable vegetation cover. The method requires relating variations in satellite-derived (NOAA, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)) surface radiant temperature to a vegetation index (computed from satellite visible and near-infrared data) while coupling this association to an inverse modeling scheme. More than merely furnishing surface soil moisture values, the method constitues a new conceptual and practical approach for combining thermal infrared and vegetation index measurements for incorporating the derived values of M(sub 0) into hydrologic and atmospheric prediction models. Application of the technique is demonstrated for a region in and around the city of Newcastle upon Tyne situated in the northeast of England. A regional estimate of M(sub 0) is derived and is probabbly good for fractional vegetation cover up to 80% before errors in the estimated soil water content become unacceptably large. Moreover, a normalization scheme is suggested from which a nomogram, `universal triangle,' is constructed and is seen to fit the observed data well. The universal triangle also simplifies the inclusion of remotely derived M(sub 0) in hydrology and meteorological models and is perhaps a practicable step toward integrating derived data from satellite measurements in weather forecasting.

Gillies, Robert R.↗

Separate the Role of Southern and Northern Extra‐Tropical Pacific in Tropical Pacific Climate Variability

Abstract Observational and modeling studies have elucidated the influential role played by the southern and northern extratropical Pacific (SEP and NEP) forcing in shaping dynamics of tropical Pacific climate variability. However, the relative importance of the NEP and SEP and the timescale on which they impact the tropics remain unclear. Using a linear inverse model (LIM) that selectively incorporates or excludes tropical‐extratropical coupling, we find a reduction in tropical interannual variability (∼40%) and low‐frequency (sub‐decadal to decadal) variability in the southeastern tropical Pacific region (∼70%) in the absence of SEP. Conversely, the absence of NEP yields no significant impact on tropical interannual variability but markedly diminishes low‐frequency variability in the central tropical Pacific region (∼70%). LIM and statistic diagnostics on CMIP6 models show the low‐frequency to total variability ratio in the tropical Pacific depending on their NEP and SEP representation. Models with more (less) low‐frequency power tend to show stronger NEP (SEP) dynamics.

Geology↗

Multiple dataset water-quality analyses in the vicinity of an ocean wastewater plume

The White's Point ocean outfall is the method of disposal for approximately 374 million gallons of treated wastewater per day from Los Angeles County. The photosynthetic characteristics and particle distributions have well-defined properties that can be exploited to yield information on transport of the plume, mixing dynamics, and resuspension of bottom sediments during periods of bottom current velocity in excess of ca. 0.1 m/s. This plume of particles serves as a conservative tracer, which was studied using a number of sampling platforms and strategies, including underway sawtooth, or 'tow-yo' sampling, moored arrays of instruments, stationary profiling, and now for the first time with remotely-sensed multispectral color imagery. Research in this area previously focused on examination of the plume as it relates to the local current field and transport of particles, and on the resuspension of bottom sediments during periods of increased currents. In addition, Wu et al elucidated techniques for separating the particle signal into photosynthetic and nonphotosynthetic components, based on the beam attenuation to chlorophyll fluorescence ratio. High-frequency time series measurements of the current field and bio-optical characteristics at a site close to the waste diffusers were also collected. These are being analyzed for the spectral characteristics of the longer-timescale variability, in order to predict particle transport through simple meteorological measurements. With the advent of high spectral and spatial resolution imaging spectrometers such as AVIRIS, it is now possible to construct causal relationships between particle distributions and signature of the upwelled radiance from the surface. The availability of a constant and well-characterized source of material lends itself well to models which predict upwelled radiance from the surface. The availability of a constant and well-characterized source of material lends itself well to models which predict upwelled light as a function of particle distributions, photosynthetic pigments, colored dissolved organic material, and detrital and degradation products of photosynthesis. In addition, the spatial coverage provided by the tow-yo sampling device, combined with the profile measurements of the light field, should facilitate the best inverse modeling attempts possible thus far.

Hamilton, Michael↗

Variability in Surface BRDF at Different Spatial Scales (30m-500m) Over a Mixed Agricultural Landscape as Retrieved from Airborne and Satellite Spectral Measurements

Over the past decade, the role of multiangle 1 remote sensing has been central to the development of algorithms for the retrieval of global land surface properties including models of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), albedo, land cover/dynamics, burned area extent, as well as other key surface biophysical quantities represented by the anisotropic reflectance characteristics of vegetation. In this study, a new retrieval strategy for fine-to-moderate resolution multiangle observations was developed, based on the operational sequence used to retrieve the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 reflectance and BRDF/albedo products. The algorithm makes use of a semiempirical kernel-driven bidirectional reflectance model to provide estimates of intrinsic albedo (i.e., directional-hemispherical reflectance and bihemispherical reflectance), model parameters describing the BRDF, and extensive quality assurance information. The new retrieval strategy was applied to NASA's Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR) data acquired during the 2007 Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC) over the well-instrumented Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site in Oklahoma, USA. For the case analyzed, we obtained approx.1.6 million individual surface bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) retrievals, from nadir to 75deg off-nadir, and at spatial resolutions ranging from 3 m - 500 m. This unique dataset was used to examine the interaction of the spatial and angular 18 characteristics of a mixed agricultural landscape; and provided the basis for detailed assessments of: (1) the use of a priori knowledge in kernel-driven BRDF model inversions; (2) the interaction between surface reflectance anisotropy and instrument spatial resolution; and (3) the uncertainties that arise when sub-pixel differences in the BRDF are aggregated to a moderate resolution satellite pixel. Results offer empirical evidence concerning the influence of scale and spatial heterogeneity in kernel-driven BRDF models; providing potential new insights into the behavior and characteristics of different surface radiative properties related to land/use cover change and vegetation structure.

Roman, Miguel O.↗

Variability in Surface BRDF at Different Spatial Scales (30 m-500 m) Over a Mixed Agricultural Landscape as Retrieved from Airborne and Satellite Spectral Measurements

Over the past decade, the role of multiangle remote sensing has been central to the development of algorithms for the retrieval of global land surface properties including models of the bidirectional reflectance distribution function (BRDF), albedo, land cover/dynamics, burned area extent, as well as other key surface biophysical quantities represented by the anisotropic reflectance characteristics of vegetation. In this study, a new retrieval strategy for fine-to-moderate resolution multiangle observations was developed, based on the operational sequence used to retrieve the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 reflectance and BRDF/albedo products. The algorithm makes use of a semiempirical kernel-driven bidirectional reflectance model to provide estimates of intrinsic albedo (i.e., directional-hemispherical reflectance and bihemispherical reflectance), model parameters describing the BRDF, and extensive quality assurance information. The new retrieval strategy was applied to NASA's Cloud Absorption Radiometer (CAR) data acquired during the 2007 Cloud and Land Surface Interaction Campaign (CLASIC) over the well-instrumented Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Cloud and Radiation Testbed (CART) site in Oklahoma, USA. For the case analyzed, we obtained approx.1.6 million individual surface bidirectional reflectance factor (BRF) retrievals, from nadir to 75 off-nadir, and at spatial resolutions ranging from 3 m - 500 m. This unique dataset was used to examine the interaction of the spatial and angular characteristics of a mixed agricultural landscape; and provided the basis for detailed assessments of: (1) the use of a priori knowledge in kernel-driven BRDF model inversions; (2) the interaction between surface reflectance anisotropy and instrument spatial resolution; and (3) the uncertain ties that arise when sub-pixel differences in the BRDF are aggregated to a moderate resolution satellite pixel. Results offer empirical evidence concerning the influence of scale and spatial heterogeneity in kernel-driven BRDF models; providing potential new insights into the behavior and characteristics of different surface radiative properties related to land/use cover change and vegetation structure.

Roman, Miguel O.↗

UQpy: A general purpose Python package and development environment for uncertainty quantification

In this paper, we present the UQpy software toolbox, an open-source Python package for general uncertainty quantification (UQ) in mathematical and physical systems. The software serves as both a user-ready toolbox that includes many of the latest methods for UQ in computational modeling and a convenient development environment for Python programmers advancing the field of UQ. The paper presents an introduction to the software's architecture and existing capabilities, divided in the code in a set of modules centered around different UQ tasks such as sampling methods, generation of random processes and random fields, probabilistic inverse modeling, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling, and active learning. The paper also highlights the importance of the RunModel module, which is used to drive simulations in the uncertainty analyses performed in UQpy. This module conveniently allows the user to define computational models directly in Python, or to run simulations from a third-party software in serial or in parallel. To illustrate the various capabilities, two examples are tracked throughout the paper and analyzed repeatedly for various UQ tasks. The first is a Python model solving a nonlinear structural dynamics problem, used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in sampling and forward propagation of high dimensional random vectors (stochastic processes), and probabilistic inference. The second model is a third-party Abaqus finite element model solving the thermomechanical response of a beam structure. This example is used to illustrate UQpy's capabilities in variance reduction sampling techniques, reliability analysis, surrogate modeling and active learning techniques.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

On the Reliability of Parameter Inferences in a Multiscale Model for Transport in Stream Corridors

Nonreacting tracer tests capture information about physical processes in transient storage zones including the hyporheic zone (HZ). However, reliably extracting this information from breakthrough curves (BTCs) and distinguishing the effects of in-channel dispersion and transient storage are well-known challenges. Using BTCs from a nonreacting tracer test monitored at multiple locations, we explore ways for reliable parameter estimations. The identifiability of parameters is greatly influenced by the choice of forward and inverse modeling frameworks in addition to the quality of the data. Our forward model is a recently proposed multiscale model that uses subgrid transport models written in the Lagrangian form to represent transport along a diverse set of HZ pathways with a shape-free distribution of travel times. Joint distributions of HZ and channel parameters are estimated using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Numerical experiments show ambiguity between channel dispersion and HZ transport when the reach length is too short to allow significant solute-HZ interaction, the observation period is too brief to observe the tailing behavior, or the solute source is spread in time. In contrast, we obtained reliable parameter estimates by simultaneously fitting BTCs observed at different locations in the test reach using a single set of HZ parameters and section-specific channel areas and dispersion coefficients. Furthermore, this study demonstrates the estimation of travel time distributions, HZ exchange rates, and channel parameters in a new multiscale approach and offers guidance for extracting reliable parameter estimates from multiple BTCs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Aircraft automatic digital flight control system with inversion of the model in the feed-forward path

A full-flight-envelope automatic trajectory control system concept is being investigated at Ames Research Center. This concept was developed for advanced aircraft configurations with severe nonlinear characteristics. A feature of the system is an inverse of the complete nonlinear aircraft model as part of the feed-forward control path. Simulation and flight tests have been reported at previous Digital Avionics Systems conferences. A new method for the continuous real-time inversion of the aircraft model using a Newton-Raphson trim algorithm instead of the original inverse table look-up procedure has been developed. The results of a simulation study of a vertical attitude takeoff and landing aircraft using the new inversion technique are presented. Maneuvers were successfully carried out in all directions in the vertical-attitude hover mode. Transition runs from conventional flight through the region of lift-curve-slope reversal at an angle of attack of about 32 deg and to hover at zero speed in the vertical attitude showed satisfactory transient response. Simulations were also conducted in conventional flight at high subsonic speed in steep climb and with turns up to 4 g. Successful flight tests of the system with the new model-inversion technique in a UH-1H helicopter have recently been carried out.

Smith, G. A.↗

A Medium‐Sized Paleo‐Tsunami Reconstruction by a Deep Neural Network Processing Sedimentary Deposits

Abstract Reconstructing the magnitude and recurrence time of tsunamis, one of the most destructive and unpredictable natural hazards impacting coastal communities, is essential. While major tsunamis are the most studied due to their disastrous impact, small/medium tsunamis (SMTs) are much more frequent and can still significantly impact the coast. Therefore, SMTs potentially provide an extensive archive of information preserved in the geological record. Analyzing the deposits of small/medium paleo‐tsunamis (SMPTs) opens a window into when their direct observation was unavailable. However, deposits of SMPTs are often degraded, traditional sediment deposition inversion models might fail. Recent research has shown that Deep Neural Networks (DNN) can effectively reconstruct the flow conditions of major tsunamis from their deposits. We evaluate the effectiveness of this approach in reconstructing the characteristics of a recent medium size tsunami (2006 Java) and of a medium paleo‐tsunami (1929 Grand Banks). We successfully reconstruct the flow characteristics of the 2006 Java event and show that an inversion of comparable quality is possible for the 1929 Grand Banks tsunami, despite greater uncertainties due to the deposit degradation. Our research shows that Machine Learning has the potential to unseal the meaning of data of thousands SMPTs.

Batubo, P.↗

The Use of Gridded Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (FFCO2) Inventory for Climate Mitigation Applications: Errors, Uncertainties, and Current and Future Challenges

Emission Inventory (EI) is a fundamental tool to monitor global compliance of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions reduction actions. Inventory guidelines provide a best practice to help EI compilers to make comparable national emission estimates, in spite of the differences in data availability across countries and regions. There are a variety of sources of errors and uncertainties, however, that originate beyond what the inventory guidelines define. For example, spatially-explicit EIs, which are a key product for atmospheric modeling applications, are often developed for research purposes, and there are no specific guidelines to disaggregate emission estimates from country scale. On top of that, EIs are fundamentally prone to systematic biases due to the simple calculation methodology and thus an objective evaluation (e.g. atmospheric top-down estimates) is needed to assure the accuracy of the estimates. ODIAC is a global high-resolution (1x1 km) fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) gridded EI that is now often used in atmospheric CO2 modeling. ODIAC is based on disaggregation of national emission estimates made by CDIAC, which is the well accepted standard in the community. The ODIAC emission data product is updated on an annual basis using best available statistical data. Subnational spatial emission patterns are estimated using power plant profiles and satellite-observations of nighttime lights. In addition to the conventional CDIAC gridded data product, ODIAC carries international bunker emissions (shipping and aviation), which allows flux inversion modelers to accurately impose the global total fossil fuel emissions and their horizontal and vertical distribution. We have extensively evaluated ODIAC emissions using fine-grained EIs as well as a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation across different scales (national, subnational/regional, and urban policy relevant) with a focus on the uncertainties associated with the emission disaggregation. We have examined the use of NASA's Black Marble Suomi-NPP/VIIRS nightlight data.

Oda, Tomohiro↗