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NASA's Morphing Project Research Summaries in Fiscal Year 2002

The Morphing Project at the National Aeronautics and Space Agency s (NASA) Langley Research Center (LaRC) is part of the Breakthrough Vehicle Technologies Project, Vehicle Systems Program that conducts fundamental research on advanced technologies for future flight vehicles. The objectives of the Morphing Project are to develop and assess the advanced technologies and integrated component concepts to enable efficient, multi-point adaptability of flight vehicles; primarily through the application of adaptive structures and adaptive flow control to substantially alter vehicle performance characteristics. This document is a compilation of research summaries and other information on the project for fiscal year 2002. The focus is to provide a brief overview of the project content, technical results and lessons learned. At the time of publication, the Vehicle Systems Program (which includes the Morphing Project) is undergoing a program re-planning and reorganization. Accordingly, the programmatic descriptions of this document pertain only to the program as of fiscal year 2002.

McGowan, Anna-Maria R.↗

Harnessing Artificial Intelligence for Medical Diagnosis and Treatment During Space Exploration Missions

From May 8th to June 9th, 2023, I had the opportunity to participate in an experiential learning experience at Johnson Space Center in Houston, TX with Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC), an element of the NASA Human Research Program. During this research experience, I was not only able to work on the above titled research project, but also gain an immense exposure to the field of aerospace medicine, make numerous connections within the field, tour NASA facilities, as well as travel to the Aerospace Medical Association Annual Conference (AsMA) in New Orleans. To briefly introduce my project, it is well understood that the medical capabilities available to crew medical officers (CMOs) on the International Space Station will be different than the capabilities available and needed during deep space exploration missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. Ground support is particularly limited due to distance, communication delays (or lack of communication), and lack of resupply. Therefore, to support medical care by CMOs on these missions, robust clinical decision support systems (CDSSs) must be designed. The recent publication and public launch of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools based upon large language models (LLM) such as ChatGPT provides the opportunity to create a smart assistant for onboard triage, diagnosis, and treatment of medical conditions. Ultimately, the overall purpose of the project was to research what AI tools currently exist or are in development, and to see how they might be implemented onboard during exploration class spaceflights of the future. The ExMC element is actively developing several tools to be used in preparation for and during deep space exploration missions. One of those tools, known as IMPACT, is a probabilistic risk assessment model which can be used to propose a desired medical system (based on mass and volume) and suggest the clinical outcomes likely to occur for a design reference mission (DRM). The group recently presented the IMPACT model and a DRM of interest titled “Modified Long Duration Lunar Orbital and Lunar Surface” (mLDLOLS) at the recent AsMA conference. The mLDLOLS mock mission is a 9 month and 6-day deep space exploration mission consisting of time in Moon’s orbit (3 months on the Gateway space station), on the lunar surface (3 months within habitat), and another 3 months on Gateway before return to Earth. For this DRM, IMPACT ultimately outlined a preferred medical system that was then associated with medical conditions considered to be most likely based on frequency, most likely to cause astronaut task time loss (TTL), most likely to cause return to definitive care (RTDC), and most likely cause loss of crew life (LOCL). IMPACT also highlighted the medical capabilities/skills that would be required to care for those medical conditions, such as performing a history of present illness or musculoskeletal exam with ultrasound. The primary objective of the project was to perform a survey of the AI tools and systems applicable to the conditions outlined for the proposed mLDLOLS mission. Using PubMed (including most relevant MeSH terms) and Google Scholar, we then created a robust annotated bibliography organized by condition. The 56-page and over 500 reference annotated bibliography was subsequently used to create a review outline that would become the basis for drafting of a future publication. For the review outline, we took those medical conditions researched within the annotated bibliography (condition-based approach) and deployed a systems-based approach, combining those medical conditions and related tools into ten categories. These categories included general/all-purpose CDSSs, tools to diagnose or manage respiratory, dermatologic, neurologic, auditory and vestibular, ophthalmic, musculoskeletal, infection-associated, and gynecologic conditions, as well as tools that could be deployed in the setting of trauma/emergency. With the completion of the 30-page outline, we then began drafting the review paper. To conclude the research experience, I presented the findings from our survey to the ExMC Clinical and Science team. With these objectives, I ultimately learned about the number of AI tools that exist today to assist medical professionals with the triage, diagnosis, and management of several medical conditions. These tools can span from chatbot assistants to help triage knee pain to vision transformer models that can identify ophthalmic conditions based on ocular surface images captured with a cell phone. We also highlighted the current gaps that exist in the literature alongside the advancements that are needed to make the desired CDSS for deep space exploration missions. With this experience, I certainly confirmed an existing career goal and identified several additional skills needed to become an aerospace medical doctor including knowledge of critical care in an extreme medicine setting, aerospace engineering and human integration systems, artificial intelligence, machine learning, and risk models. I also identified numerous transferable skills for this career goal including the basic knowledge of medicine (MD), deployment of the scientific method for critical thought about new scientific questions (PhD), review of published literature, including creating an annotated bibliography (PhD), as well as detailed scientific writing (PhD). The results of my research will likely guide the design of an all-encompassing onboard medical assistant for use during deep space exploration missions of the future. I plan on sharing the outcomes from this experience with my peers at a student seminar in the Fall semester on August 30th. During the seminar, I will detail the project, my experience at NASA and AsMA, as well as offer best practice guidelines for students entertaining similar experiences or careers. In conclusion, I would like to thank the WVU School of Medicine, Research and Graduate Education office, as well as NASA ExMC for the unwavering support of this life-changing experience.

Ryan A. Lacinski↗

Real-Time Science Decisioning During High Tempo-High Intensity Mission Operations and the Role of Analogs

Introduction: NASA’s VIPER mission presents a unique operational paradigm within the history of robotic spaceflight. The proximity of the Moon to the Earth and the terrain elements (surface characteristics, light/shadow dynamics, communication links) of the lunar South Polar landing site create unprecedented operational conditions between these two planetary bodies. Apollo era lunar science and exploration included humans in situ to operate instruments and assimilate observational inputs in real-time. Previous lunar orbital missions have worked to operational timescales, e.g., decisional timelines and communication exchanges, that were weeks in length. Mars rover missions have worked to operational timescales, e.g., decisional timelines and communication exchanges between Mars and Earth, that were hours, days, and weeks in length. In the case of the VIPER mission, our operational decisioning for rover driving and instrument commanding will be compressed to minute-scale timeframes. These operational conditions directly impact the manner and speed with which the VIPER Science Team (VST) is required to synthesize and analyze data and produce timely science-driven decisions throughout surface mission operations. The VST shall provide mission enhancing scientific input to guide rover traverse planning and drill site confirmation and selection throughout surface operations. Further, the VST input will be of vital importance to the mission’s ability to maximize science return and to meet broader NASA objectives for future lunar in-situ resource utilization (ISRU)and exploration activities. The VST co-located in the Mission Science Center (MSC) will be responsive to the tactical operational cadence of the Mission Operations Center (MOC) and will provide further strategic and Long-Term Planning (LTP) guidance to the mission. The VIPER Science Operations & Integration(SO&I)team has developed an architecture that is focused on the infusion of science-decisioning into the operational framework and execution cadence of VIPER. NASA analog research has played a significant role in the construction of the VIPER science operations systems. As an example, the SO&I team has led analog missions that have focused on bringing together expertise in the sciences (natural, applied and social) and in operations in service of learning how to build and hold together interdisciplinary work environments and what tools are needed to support high tempo, high intensity integrated decisioning. These experiences have provided an essential foundation of knowledge to the VIPER team. Those analogs that specifically influenced the VIPER science operations construct were identified through a process of comparative analysis to prioritize those that offered relevance in whole or in part, and those that did not. The analog research output that provided extensibility to the VIPER science operations architecture included remote teams of humans and robots in cooperation (synchronous and asynchronous) with simulated earthbound systems, engineering and science teams, and the integrated assembly of tools that supported scientific analysis and data synthesis and provided infrastructure for the remote testing framework. Analogs which included real-time data monitoring, synthesis, visualization and access in a democratized and operationalized manner were of particular interest to the development of the VIPER MSC toolset both in terms of the technology and the processes used to develop the supporting infrastructure. We anticipate that each subsequent mission to the lunar south pole, whether with robots or humans, will be able to optimize science and exploration return by evolving strategies to infuse real-time collaborative science-decisioning. Furthermore, these efforts will result in a foundation for science operations development in support of human-robotic exploration of deep space and Mars. NASA analogs can continue to provide the opportunity to prepare, test and iterate on the operational concepts and tools that will support these ever-expanding space exploration efforts. Our presentation will include an overview of the VIPER Science Operations & Integration development process and specifics on what aspects of analog research have had a significant impact on our work systems.

D S S Lim↗

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems: Preprint

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different sets of preprocess data for the prediction of the frequency nadir in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. The training and testing data sets are collected by extensive generation scheduling simulations on the Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MIDAS) toolbox. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods can achieve high performance accuracy for power system nadir frequency estimation. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners by providing the best prediction accuracy.

data driven↗

Planned Relocation: A Pluralistic and Integrated Approach to Science and Governance

Planned relocation is an ambitious objective that occurs in complex governance settings rife with inequalities of power, discrimination, distrust, deep uncertainty, misalignment of incentives and authorities, and other challenges. Taking planned relocation from ambition to an equitable and effective portfolio of measures will require changes in science, governance and how they work together. Research will need to understand perverse incentives, conflicts, limits to risk perception, and other factors across individuals, communities, governance levels, and sectors. Knowledge to enable planned relocation will emerge not just from technical studies but from entwined processes of action, learning and capacity building. Science and governance must advance their collaboration to better support and learn from these tangled processes to identify adaptive pathways, build agency and implement strategies under deep uncertainty.

global environmental change, adapatation, decision↗

Late-Stage Research Development and Demonstration Sub-activities Updates – FY24 Q3

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), in collaboration with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and the Hummingbird Firm (a specialized consulting firm focused on promoting diversity, equity, and inclusion considerations), has initiated a national initiative known as the Heat Pump (HP) and Heat Pump Water Heater (HPWH) Field Validation Partnership. This effort involves active participation from numerous critical entities involved in research and market transformation within the field. The ORNL team is responsible for leading Late-Stage Research Development and Demonstration (LSRDD) among the four different topics. The overall outcomes of this project will be: (1) A structured Field Validation Partnership between DOE, the national labs, research, implementation, and market transformation organizations. This will result in unique way to coordinate field validation plans and collect relevant data from around the country into the HP and HPWH Field Validation Database. (2) The Field Validation Partnership will result in a continuous stream of information between DOE and the major industry players in the space of HPs and HPWHs. If desired, DOE could use this information to inform roadmaps related to HP and HPWH market adoption and research going forward. (3) The structure of this Partnership provides a mechanism for sharing lessons learned directly between Late-Stage RD&D, Building Integration Barriers, Regional Market and Policy and Workforce Development efforts. The result will be training content that is well-reviewed by the Partnership which will lead to a workforce that meets the industry’s quality and workforce supply demands. (4) The structure of this Partnership also provides an opportunity for regions to share lessons learned on policy and market transformation with each other through the Market and Policy core Committee. This report includes an update in Late-Stage Research Development and Demonstration.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

NASA/JSC ISSLive!

Just 150 miles above us, the International Space Station (ISS) is orbiting. Each day, the astronauts on board perform a variety of activities from exercise, science experiments, and maintenance. Yet, many on the ground do not know about these daily activities. National Aeronautics Space Agency/ Johnson Space Center (NASA/JSC) innovation creation ISSLive! - an education project - is working to bridge this knowledge gap with traditional education channels such as schools, but also non-traditional channels with the non-technical everyday public. ISSLive! provides a website that seamlessly integrates planning and telemetry data, video feeds, 3D models, and iOS and android applications. Through the site, users are able to view astronauts daily schedules, in plain English alongside the original data. As an example, when an astronaut is working with a science experiment, a user will be able to read about the activity and for more detailed activities follow provided links to view more information all integrated into the same site. Live telemetry data from a predefined set can also be provided alongside the activities. For users to learn more, 3D models of the external and internal parts of the ISS are available, allowing users to explore the station and even select sensors, such as temperature, and view a real-time chart of the data. Even ground operations are modeled with a 3D mission control center, providing users information on the various flight control disciplines and showing live data that they would be monitoring. Some unique activities are also highlighted and have dedicated spaces to explore in more detail. Education is the focus of ISSLive!, even from the beginning when university students participated in the development process as part of their master s projects. Focus groups at a Houston school showed interest in the project and excitement towards including ISSLive! in their classroom. Through this inclusion, students' knowledge can be assessed with projects, oral presentations, and other assignments. For the public citizens outside of the traditional education system, ISSLive! provides a single, interactive, and engaging experience to learn about the ISS and its role in space exploration, international collaboration, and science. While traditional students are using ISSLive! in the classroom, their parents, grandparents, and friends are using it at home. ISSLive! truly brings the daily operations of the ISS into the daily lives of the public from every generation.

Harris, Philip D.↗

ISSLIVE! Bringing the Space Station to Every Generation

Just 200 miles above us, the International Space Station (ISS) is orbiting. Each day, the astronauts on board perform a variety of activities from exercise, science experiments, and maintenance. Yet, many on the ground don?t know about these daily activities. ISSLive! - an education project - is working to bridge this knowledge gap with traditional education channels such as schools, but also non-traditional channels with the non-technical everyday public. ISSLive! provides a website that seamlessly integrates planning and telemetry data, video feeds, 3D models, and iOS and android applications. Through the site, users are able to view astronauts? daily schedules, in plain English alongside the original data. As an example, when an astronaut is working with a science experiment, a user will be able to read about the activity and for more detailed activities follow provided links to view more information -- all integrated into the same site. Live telemetry data from a predefined set can also be provided alongside the activities. For users to learn more, 3D models of the external and internal parts of the ISS are available, allowing users to explore the station and even select sensors, such as temperature, and view a real-time chart of the data. Even ground operations are modelled with a 3D mission control center, providing users information on the various flight control disciplines and showing live data that they would be monitoring. Some unique activities are also highlighted, and have dedicated spaces to explore in more detail. Education is the focus of ISSLive!, even from the beginning when university students participated in the development process as part of their master?s projects. Focus groups at a Houston school showed interest in the project, and excitement towards including ISSLive! in their classroom. Through this inclusion, student?s knowledge can be assessed with projects, oral presentations, and other assignments. For the public citizens outside of the traditional education system, ISSLive! provides a single, interactive, and engaging experience to learn about the ISS and its role in space exploration, international collaboration, and science. While traditional students are using ISSLive! in the classroom, their parents, grandparents, and friends are using it at home. ISSLive! truly brings the daily operations of the ISS into the daily lives of the public from every generation.

Harris, Philip D.↗

SRMS History, Evolution and Lessons Learned

Early in the development of the Space Shuttle, it became clear that NASA needed a method of deploying and retrieving payloads from the payload bay. The Shuttle Remote Manipulator System (SRMS) was developed to fill this need. The 50 foot long robotic arm is an anthropomorphic design consisting of three electromechanical joints, six degrees of freedom, and two boom segments. Its composite boom construction provided a light weight solution needed for space operations. Additionally, a method of capturing payloads with the arm was required and a unique End Effector was developed using an electromechanical snare mechanism. The SRMS is operated using a Displays and Controls Panel and hand controllers located within the aft crew compartment of the shuttle. Although the SRMS was originally conceived to deploy and retrieve payloads, its generic capabilities allowed it to perform many other functions not originally conceived of. Over the years it has been used for deploying and retrieving constrained and free flying payloads, maneuvering and supporting EVA astronauts, satellite repair, International Space Station construction, and as a viewing aid for on-orbit International Space Station operations. After the Columbia accident, a robotically compatible Orbiter Boom Sensor System (OBSS) was developed and used in conjunction with the SRMS to scan the Thermal Protection System (TPS) of the shuttle. These scans ensure there is not a breach of the TPS prior to shuttle re-entry. Ground operations and pre mission simulation, analysis and planning played a major role in the success of the SRMS program. A Systems Engineering Simulator (SES) was developed to provide a utility complimentary to open loop engineering simulations. This system provided a closed-loop real-time pilot-driven simulation giving visual feedback, display and control panel interaction, and integration with other vehicle systems, such as GN&C. It has been useful for many more applications than traditional training. Evolution of the simulations, guided by the Math Model Working Group, showed the utility of input from multiple modeling groups with a structured forum for discussion.There were many unique development challenges in the areas of hardware, software, certification, modeling and simulation. Over the years, upgrades and enhancements were implemented to increase the capability, performance and safety of the SRMS. The history and evolution of the SRMS program provided many lessons learned that can be used for future space robotic systems.

Jorgensen, Glenn↗

Clean Grid Vision: A U.S. Perspective - Executive Summary

Clean Grid Vision: A U.S. Perspective aims to present a range of possible pathways for future grid development and call attention to some common trends. It focuses on the lessons learned through NREL’s studies of the U.S. power sector that have measured the impacts of high-penetration VRE and have tested strategies for enhancing grid flexibility and reliability. As such, this report is limited in its scope and does not attempt to review or summarize all grid integration literature. While it refers to relevant external literature to provide context when needed, this report is primarily a summary of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) research in the past 5 years on five key topics: grid planning and operation, grid reliability at the distribution level, grid reliability at the transmission level, demand-side resources, and power markets—each corresponds to a chapter in this report. The main insights of the report are presented in this executive summary.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Understanding the International Space Station Crew Perspective following Long-Duration Missions through Data Analytics & Visualization of Crew Feedback

The International Space Station (ISS) first became a home and research laboratory for NASA and International Partner crewmembers over 16 years ago. Each ISS mission lasts approximately 6 months and consists of three to six crewmembers. After returning to Earth, most crewmembers participate in an extensive series of 30+ debriefs intended to further understand life onboard ISS and allow crews to reflect on their experiences. Examples of debrief data collected include ISS crew feedback about sleep, dining, payload science, scheduling and time planning, health & safety, and maintenance. The Flight Crew Integration (FCI) Operational Habitability (OpsHab) team, based at Johnson Space Center (JSC), is a small group of Human Factors engineers and one stenographer that has worked collaboratively with the NASA Astronaut office and ISS Program to collect, maintain, disseminate and analyze this data. The database provides an exceptional and unique resource for understanding the "crew perspective" on long duration space missions. Data is formatted and categorized to allow for ease of search, reporting, and ultimately trending, in order to understand lessons learned, recurring issues and efficiencies gained over time. Recently, the FCI OpsHab team began collaborating with the NASA JSC Knowledge Management team to provide analytical analysis and visualization of these over 75,000 crew comments in order to better ascertain the crew's perspective on long duration spaceflight and gain insight on changes over time. In this initial phase of study, a text mining framework was used to cluster similar comments and develop measures of similarity useful for identifying relevant topics affecting crew health or performance, locating similar comments when a particular issue or item of operational interest is identified, and providing search capabilities to identify information pertinent to future spaceflight systems and processes for things like procedure development and training. In addition, the comments were scored for sentiment using a polarity scoring algorithm to identify both positive and negative comments for particular groups and clusters, allowing the team to make analytically informed decisions regarding future hardware and operating procedures. The use of polarity scoring with time series analysis was used to provide insight into how crew health and habitability is changing throughout various spaceflight increments or the station lifecycle as a whole. Finally, a visualization framework was developed to address the needs of the end users to search for and analyze comments by user, category or mission. This paper will discuss how the use of an analytical framework in conjunction with the current human interface, improved the understanding of crew perspective and shortened the time for analysis allowing for more informed decisions and rapid development of improvements. These methods are significantly optimizing the way that this valuable data can be assessed and applied to current and future spaceflight design and development. This collaboration allows the FCI OpsHab team to effectively analyze and share data in a more automated and timely fashion. Trends are no longer derived manually and can be illustrated effectively and accurately with these evolving techniques to an ever growing group of human spaceflight end users.

Bryant, Cody↗

BETO 2021 Peer Review - Biomethanation to Upgrade Biogas to Pipeline Grade Methane WBS 5.1.3.102

We are developing, innovating and de-risking a biomethanation process capable of megawatt-scale deployment that upgrades biogas waste streams to produce pipeline quality renewable natural gas (RNG). Biomethanation is a two-step process using a methanogenic microorganism to convert renewable hydrogen (H2) and waste carbon dioxide (CO2) to renewable methane (CH4) - the primary component in natural gas. Using biogenic CO2 from biogas sources like dairies, wastewater treatment plants, and landfills allows production of this drop-in direct replacement fuel to participate in the growing number of carbon markets; like California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard and the Federal Renewable Fuel Standard. The end-of-project goal is to demonstrate pipeline quality RNG production (> 95% CH4, < 4% H2, <1% CO2, < 0.2% O2 and < 4 parts per million hydrogen sulfide) using real biogas feedstocks. We will accomplish this goal by designing and building a pressurized (18 bar) mobile lab-scale (20L) bioreactor research platform, including integrated electrolyzer system, based on lessons learned from operating the 700L pilot system from Southern California Gas Company. In collaboration with Electrochaea, natural gas utilities and Argonne National lab, will provide the data to establish a preliminary range of carbon intensity to help accelerate the deployment of utility-scale H2 production and qualify the biomethanation pathway process for RNG production.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Next-Generation Marine Energy Software Needs Assessment

Over the past decade the marine energy industry has continued to grow and evolve, with new concepts and technologies constantly being pursued. Additionally, the field of computing is vastly different today than it was five or ten years ago. By utilizing advanced software and hardware architectures, like graphics processing units as well as parallelization and high-performance computing resources, software can produce higher quality outputs and a higher volume of outputs. These software and hardware resources can enable the marine energy community to exploit computational advancements from other research fields, which can include machine learning, differentiable programming, and controls co-design. Better integration of existing software and development of potential new software is necessary to take advantage of trends in modern computing and respond to the current and future needs of the marine energy community. In order to better understand the existing marine energy software landscape and industry needs, DOE's Water Power Technologies Office (WPTO) tasked Sandia National Laboratories and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory to update the needs assessment by identifying existing software gaps and software needs, and assisting WPTO in planning the next wave of marine energy software development. The proposed effort involved cataloguing and analyzing the available data on existing software related to marine energy. The marine energy software landscape has vastly changed in the last ten years. There are now nearly 230 different software packages utilized by the marine energy sector, compared to a decade ago when the Cardinal Engineering survey identified approximately 40 software packages. In 2012, the marine energy software landscape was captured in two tables, whereas the current marine energy software landscape required development of a software database to collect and categorize software.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Mars2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) Do No Harm Test Series

A total of seventeen instrumented thermal sensor plugs, eight pressure transducers, two heat flux sensors, and one radiometer are planned to be utilized on the Mars 2020 missions thermal protection system (TPS) as part of the Mars Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation II (MEDLI2) project. Of the MEDLI2 instrumentation, eleven instrumented thermal plugs and seven pressure transducers will be installed on the heatshield of the Mars 2020 vehicle while the rest will be installed on the backshell. The goal of the MEDLI2 instrumentation is to directly inform the large performance uncertainties that contribute to the design and validation of a Mars entry system. A better understanding of the entry environment and TPS performance could lead to reduced design margins enabling a greater payload mass-fraction and smaller landing ellipses. To prove that the MEDLI2 system will not degrade the performance of the Mars 2020 TPS, an Aerothermal Do No Harm (DNH) test series was designed and conducted. Like Mars 2020s predecessor, Mars Science Laboratory (MSL), the heatshield material will be Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA); the Mars 2020 entry conditions are enveloped by the MSL design environments, therefore the development and qualification testing performed during MEDLI is sufficient to show that the similar MEDLI2 heatshield instrumentation will not degrade PICA performance. However, given that MEDLI did not include any backshell instrumentation, the MEDLI2 team was required to design and execute a DNH test series utilizing the backshell TPS material (SLA-561V) with the intended flight sensor suite. To meet the requirements handed down from Mars 2020, the MEDLI2 DNH test series emphasized the interaction between the MEDLI2 sensors and sensing locations with the surrounding backshell TPS and substrucutre. These interactions were characterized by performing environmental testing of four 12 by 12 test panels, which mimicked the construction of the backshell TPS and the integration of the MEDLI2 sensors as seen in Figure 1. The testing included thermal vacuumcycling, random vibration, shock, and arc jet testing. The test panels were fabricated by Lockheed Martin, establishing techniques that will be utilized during the Mars 2020 vehicle installation. Each test panel included one thermal sensor plug (two embedded thermocouples), one heat flux sensor, and multiple pressure port holes for evaluation.This presentation will discuss the planning and execution of the MEDLI2 DNH test series. Selected highlights and results of each environmental test will be presented, and lessons learned will be addressed that will feed forward into the planning for the MEDLI2 flight system certification testing.

backshell↗

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

Risk-informed Graded Approach for Reliability and Performance Assessment of Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence for Advanced Condition Monitoring Techniques

With the shift away from time-based maintenance and toward condition-based maintenance, and to reduce overall maintenance costs, there has been an upsurge in the usage and development of advanced condition monitoring (ACM) techniques for real-time monitoring of nuclear power plant (NPP) components. ACM is particularly useful in the development of digital twins, which are designed to predict the failure or degradation of plant components. Successful implementation of ACM requires an assessment to inform the development of a risk-informed approach to evaluate the use of ACM to meet Nuclear Regulatory Committee (NRC) regulations for in-service testing (IST) programs. This includes the monitoring and diagnostics of reactor components and systems in current, new, and advanced reactors. A key component in ACM is the usage of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that can employ real-time data from instrumentation and sensors to detect and predict reactor component degradations. Such predictive capabilities enable early detection of component degradation so as to help plant personnel plan and execute necessary maintenance. For successful implementation of ML/AI in ACM such that regulatory requirements are met, a risk-informed graded approach is needed to assess the reliability and performance of ML/AI for ACM. The American Society for Mechanical Engineers (ASME) developed their Operations and Maintenance (O&M) Code to provide guidance on safe, reliable O&M of NPPs. The IST section of the O&M Code specifically establishes requirements for IST and examination to gauge operational readiness of components in water-cooled NPPs. This paper presents a state-of-the-art review of how reliability and risk assessment can be integrated with ACM to assess component performance by non-nuclear industries. This is followed by different methodologies and approaches for conducting performance and reliability assessments so as to meet IST requirements for NPP components.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

MARGInS: Model-Based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems

Under NASAs Constellation effort, the Exploration Technology Development Program funded research toward a system validation capability that applied machine learning and test-case generation techniques to the analysis of black-box system behavior. The behavior analysis capability scaled to spaces of hundreds of input parameters and tens of thousands of test cases. Aerospace systems at the vehicle level, especially those systems which contain some level of autonomy, are best described by hybrid and non-linear mathematics. Even simplified models of such systems need parameter dimensionalities in the hundreds or thousands of parameters in order to capture sufficient fidelity. The System Safety Assessments (such as those described in the SAE ARP 4761A Safety Assessment Process guidelines) for these systems are prone to errorinteractions between the vehicles subsystems are complex, and can display emergent behaviors. NASA captured this new analysis in the Model-based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems (MARGInS) tool and applied it to the Pad Abort 1 (PA-1) simulation as part of the independent validation and verification cycle before the PA-1 flight test in May of 2010. MARGInS evaluated the adherence of the high-fidelity simulation to its requirements, and deter- mined the margins to failure from the expected nominal input conditions. Following the PA-1 test, the capabilities within the MARGInS framework have been extended with sophisticated statistical and white-box test case generation techniques and applied to other NASA missions. The frame- work now includes a critical factors analysis that was applied to NASAs Orion simulation and design. NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) leveraged the existing MARGInS framework for work on aviation safety for civil transport vehicles and for research on autonomy issues. The NASA ARMD effort created a time series output prediction capability that has been used to characterize trajectories for a plane with an adaptive control system, and a safety boundary detection capability that has been applied to an air traffic control concept of operation for the Federal Aviation Administration. The statistical and machine- learning based techniques within MARGInS have been successfully combined with concolic execution to improve the coverage of a critical unit by driving system-level inputs. The use case driving the concolic execution and MARGInS integration was inspired by the Air France 447 disaster in which the loss of a critical functionality (the airspeed calculation from the pitot tubes) led to loss of the entire plane with the people aboard. To illustrate capabilities and limitations, we will highlight the analyses for the applications listed above. We will then discuss the future plans for MARGInS and its interfaces with other tools.

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The Essential Role of Integrated Nuclear-Renewable Energy Systems in Achieving Economy-wide Net Zero Solutions

Background/Objectives. The Biden administration has committed to full decarbonization of the U.S. electricity grid by 2035 and economy-wide net zero emissions by 2050. These aggressive goals demand immediate action if we are to be successful, and they require us to think more holistically about our clean energy options. Focused laboratory initiatives, such as the INL Integrated Energy Systems (IES) Initiative, and multiple programs within the Department of Energy are working together to address these holistic solutions. Approach/Activities. Traditionally, electricity generation and management and meeting energy demands for industry and transportation are considered independently. As we seek to achieve net zero, we need to reassess our energy demands. When we consider overall energy use, only one-third is in the form of electricity. Additional energy demands are in the form of heat or steam for industrial processes, as well as transportation. Emissions across these sectors are much harder to abate, and electrification may not be the best option. Reducing environmental emissions at an affordable cost, while maintaining grid reliability and resilience, will require us to use all of the clean energy resources that we have available. That means coordinating the use of nuclear, renewables, and fossil fuels with carbon capture to meet growing demands for electricity, industrial applications, and mobility. The primary focus of IES research is to assess the technical and economic potential of various IES solutions to enhance the flexibility and utilization of nuclear energy generators working alongside renewable generators to meet an array of energy demands—thereby maximizing the utilization of clean energy resources across all energy sectors. Various energy applications and product streams beyond electricity are being evaluated, ranging from generation of potable water to production of hydrogen, fertilizers, synthetic fuels, and various chemicals. Results/Lessons Learned. This presentation will highlight the wide array of RD&D being conducted to develop and deploy nuclear-based IES that will be key to achieving our net zero goals. By working with key collaborators in the nuclear industry, analytical studies are now becoming a reality in multiple demonstration projects.

08 HYDROGEN↗