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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Modeling Needs to Support the Reconstruction Strategy of Ukraine

Ukraine has been facing difficult times. Russia started a full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, and has caused huge human and infrastructure losses. As a result of the invasion, more than 8 million people left their homes. The Russian army has targeted Ukrainian energy sources, destroying or damaging over 50% of thermal power generation capacity (coal and gas), 30% of solar generation, and 90% of wind generation. The Russians are also threatening Ukrainian energy security, as they currently control the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – Europe’s largest. In addition, Russia has destroyed 121,000 buildings, including 5,300 multistory buildings - more buildings than Ukraine built during the past five years. The occupiers destroyed or damaged 343 district heat boiler stations (destroyed 12 / damaged 331) and 8 CHPs (destroyed 4/ damaged 4). There is no doubt that Ukraine will be able to protect its sovereignty and restore its territorial integrity; however, this will be a long process. The Government of Ukraine needs to simultaneously focus on many issues, from waging war to the restoration of electricity, water, and heat supply in the territories close to the front line. In addition to these time-sensitive issues, the government also needs to plan a long term multi-sector strategy for the reconstruction of Ukraine’s economy. Ukraine initiated a broad-based political process for recovery at the International Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC 2022) in Lugano, Switzerland. Prior to URC 2022, Ukraine applied for EU membership on February 28 and was granted the status of candidate country by the European Council on June 23, 2022. More than 40 nations are fully committed to supporting Ukraine throughout its path from early to long-term recovery. In addition, these countries link a successful recovery to Ukraine’s European future (URC, 2022a). The reconstruction process will be long. The government also recognizes that it is not enough to build energy infrastructure back – it should be built back better. The government is committed to building a more sustainable and cleaner energy sector. Energy modeling can provide important insights into paths to decarbonize Ukraine’s economy while rebuilding it after the war. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) and the Institute for Economics and Forecasting of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine (IEF) work on modeling decarbonization scenarios in the energy sector of Ukraine. The teams focus on the heat sector, which includes district heat, autonomous and individual heating, and energy consumption by final energy consumption sectors, including buildings. Since the teams use world-class integrated assessment models, other sectors will be analyzed as well. The purpose of the document is to describe the needs of key Ukrainian ministries in modeling the reconstruction process. The scope of this document is limited to modeling energy consumption by the power and heat sectors, final energy consumption by buildings, and GHG emissions from these two sectors. The rest of this policy memo is organized as follows. After this introduction, Chapter 2 discusses key provisions of the reconstruction strategy with a focus on energy, buildings, heat supply, environment, and European integration aspirations. Section 3 provides an overview of recent developments and key decisions of the Government of Ukraine in the area of energy efficiency and decarbonization. Finally, Section 4 provides key suggestions on how PNNL and IEF can help the Government of Ukraine in developing strategic documents.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2004

Integrated Risk Management Within NASA Programs/Projects

As NASA Project Risk Management activities continue to evolve, the need to successfully integrate risk management processes across the life cycle, between functional disciplines, stakeholders, various management policies, and within cost, schedule and performance requirements/constraints become more evident and important. Today's programs and projects are complex undertakings that include a myriad of processes, tools, techniques, management arrangements and other variables all of which must function together in order to achieve mission success. The perception and impact of risk may vary significantly among stakeholders and may influence decisions that may have unintended consequences on the project during a future phase of the life cycle. In these cases, risks may be unintentionally and/or arbitrarily transferred to others without the benefit of a comprehensive systemic risk assessment. Integrating risk across people, processes, and project requirements/constraints serves to enhance decisions, strengthen communication pathways, and reinforce the ability of the project team to identify and manage risks across the broad spectrum of project management responsibilities. The ability to identify risks in all areas of project management increases the likelihood a project will identify significant issues before they become problems and allows projects to make effective and efficient use of shrinking resources. By getting a total team integrated risk effort, applying a disciplined and rigorous process, along with understanding project requirements/constraints provides the opportunity for more effective risk management. Applying an integrated approach to risk management makes it possible to do a better job at balancing safety, cost, schedule, operational performance and other elements of risk. This paper will examine how people, processes, and project requirements/constraints can be integrated across the project lifecycle for better risk management and ultimately improve the chances for mission success.

Connley, Warren↗
DOE OSTI2022

Farmers’ Perception of Climate Change and Its Impacts on Agriculture

Climate change and climate variability drive rapid glacier melt and snowpack loss, extreme precipitation and temperature events, and alteration of water availability in the Himalayas. There is increasing observational evidence of climate change impacts on water resource availability and agricultural productivity in the central Himalayan region. Here, we assess the farmers’ perception of climate change and its impacts on agriculture in western Nepal. We interviewed 554 households and conducted eight focus group discussions to collect farmers’ perceptions of temperature and rainfall characteristics, water availability, onset and duration of different seasons, and the impacts of such changes on their lives and livelihoods. Our results indicate that the farmers’ perceptions of rising annual and summer temperatures are consistent with observations. Perception, however, contradicts observed trends in winter temperature, as well as annual, monsoon, and winter precipitation. In addition, farmers are increasingly facing incidences of extreme events, including rainfall, floods, landslides, and droughts. These hazards often impact agricultural production, reducing household income and exacerbating the economic impacts on subsistence farmers. Integrated assessment of farmers’ perceptions and hydrometeorological observations is crucial to improving climate change impact assessment and informing the design of mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

High-Resolution 3D Acoustic Borehole Integrity Monitoring (Research Performance Progress Report Q2 2021)

Real-time, in-situ, high spatial resolution (sub-cm) imaging of the near-borehole environment would revolutionize wellbore diagnostics and integrity assessment by direct observation of defects. It is becoming increasingly apparent, that better understanding of the near-wellbore environment is required to meet the safety and operational needs in challenging environments such as those present in subsurface energy extraction (geothermal) and storage (CO2 sequestration) applications. Therefore, it is important to have a more robust ability to image the near-borehole and reliably detect defects. It was proposed to further develop and improve our advanced 3D imaging system to evaluate casing defects (e.g. corrosion) and cement quality in either open- or cased-borehole with the ultimate goal to develop a commercially deployable technology. The system consists of a unique acoustic source (LANL) and advanced inversion techniques for image processing (LANL, ORNL). This system will provide comprehensive borehole integrity monitoring with improved resolution over existing techniques. As an application of this imaging system, we will characterize the effectiveness of next-generation wellbore completion technology (NETL, SNL), and will demonstrate that, unlike current technology, the proposed approach can successfully characterize foamed cements.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Resolution 3D Acoustic Borehole Integrity Monitoring (Final Report)

Real-time, in-situ, high spatial resolution (sub-cm) imaging of the near-borehole environment would revolutionize wellbore diagnostics and integrity assessment by direct observation of defects. It is becoming increasingly apparent, that better understanding of the near-wellbore environment is required to meet the safety and operational needs in challenging environments such as those present in subsurface energy extraction (geothermal) and storage (CO2 sequestration) applications. Therefore, it is important to have a more robust ability to image the near-borehole and reliably detect defects. It was proposed to further develop and improve our advanced 3D imaging system to evaluate casing defects (e.g. corrosion) and cement quality in either open- or cased-borehole with the ultimate goal to develop a commercially deployable technology. The system consists of a unique acoustic source (LANL) and advanced inversion techniques for image processing (LANL, ORNL). This system will provide comprehensive borehole integrity monitoring with improved resolution over existing techniques. As an application of this imaging system, we will characterize the effectiveness of next-generation wellbore completion technology (NETL, SNL), and will demonstrate that, unlike current technology, the proposed approach can successfully characterize foamed cements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Report Q3FY21 - High-Resolution 3D Acoustic Borehole Integrity Monitoring

Real-time, in-situ, high spatial resolution (sub-cm) imaging of the near-borehole environment would revolutionize wellbore diagnostics and integrity assessment by direct observation of defects. It is becoming increasingly apparent, that better understanding of the near-wellbore environment is required to meet the safety and operational needs in challenging environments such as those present in subsurface energy extraction (geothermal) and storage (CO 2 sequestration) applications. Therefore, it is important to have a more robust ability to image the near-borehole and reliably detect defects. It was proposed to further develop and improve our advanced 3D imaging system to evaluate casing defects (e.g. corrosion) and cement quality in either open- or cased-borehole with the ultimate goal to develop a commercially deployable technology. The system consists of a unique acoustic source (LANL) and advanced inversion techniques for image processing (LANL, ORNL). This system will provide comprehensive borehole integrity monitoring with improved resolution over existing techniques. As an application of this imaging system, we will characterize the effectiveness of next-generation wellbore completion technology (NETL, SNL), and will demonstrate that, unlike current technology, the proposed approach can successfully characterize foamed cements.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Simulation and Analysis on Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) subjected to Pressurized Thermal Shock (PTS) under SBLOCA scenario by using Cardinal to support the fracture mechanics analyses

The structural components that comprise nuclear reactors and their supporting structures are subjected to harsh operating environments that can challenge their integrity, especially after exposure for extended durations or under accident condition. As one of the most significant components of a Reactor, the Reactor Pressure Vessel (RPV) is exposed to an aggressive environment during the operation time (e.g. more than 40 years). Ageing degradation mechanisms (e.g. thermos-fatigue) could grow initial defects up to a critical size, increasing the susceptibility to failure in the RPV. The conventional methods are mostly based on simple crack and structure geometries. Very limited studies consider the real conditions of the RPV subjected to a thermal shock due to a Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA). During a LOCA event, the most severe conditions take place when the emergency core cooling (ECC) water is injected inside the cold legs filled initially with hotter water and/or steam. The rapid cooling of the down-comer and the internal RPV surface followed probably by re-pressurization of the RPV causes large temperature gradients and variation of pressure which induces thermal-mechanical stresses. In order to develop the model for integrity assessment of a reactor pressure vessel (RPV) subjected to pressurized thermal shock (PTS), a multi-physics simulation, which includes the thermo-hydraulic, thermo-mechanical and fracture mechanics analyses is necessary. The multi-physics simulations are performed using Cardinal, a wrapping of the GPU-oriented spectral element Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) code NekRS and other multi-physics sub-modules within the MOOSE framework. Cardinal now fully supports MOOSE stochastic perturbations of NekRS models with varying boundary conditions, initial conditions, material properties, and any other quantity which is defined by a kernel (such as coefficients in a momentum source model). The implementation is designed in a flexible manner so that scalar values are sent from MOOSE into a user scratch space in NekRS, which can then be applied for any purpose within the NekRS case files (both on the host and device). When modeling PTS, several factors can impact the results significantly. In this report, the impacts of the geometry of the model, Reynolds number and buoyancy effect are investigated. Two geometry, i.e., a simplified model and a realistic RPV model, with both laminar and turbulent flow condition are adopted for the PTS simulation with and without buoyancy effect. The purpose of the investigation is to understand the impact of these factors on the prediction of temperature history of RPV. The accurate prediction on the temperature evolution, which will be exported to Grizzly code for further analyses on the progression of aging mechanisms and their effects on the integrity of RPV structures, is very crucial. Based on the understanding of these factors, a more sophisticated model is built to analysis the PTS under SBLOCA scenario. A literature survey is conducted to pick the SBLOCA scenario for the multi-physics simulation. The analysis helps to explain the form and the transformation of the cold plum when the ECC is activated under SBLOCA. This model can be can be applied to study the PTS effect for different RPV configurations. The results can help to assess structural component degradation for advanced reactors.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrated Modeling Driven Evaluation of Opportunities for Climate‐Resilient Perennial Biomass Crop Plantings in Flood‐Prone Agricultural Landscapes

Adapting to future climate change in flood-prone landscapes will require climate-resilient agricultural systems. Planting perennial crops, like switchgrass and willow, along river corridors can mitigate future flooding while supporting bioenergy markets. We developed an integrated assessment linking climate, hydrologic, and inundation model results to assess future flood risk to river-adjacent agricultural lands in the Mid-Atlantic Region (MAR) and explore this opportunity. We produced ensemble streamflow projections for every MAR stream using a hydrologic model driven by a suite of downscaled and bias-corrected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate projections. We then conducted high-resolution inundation mapping based on projected flood frequencies for baseline and future periods. Results show that in the near-term future, at least two-thirds of the streams will experience 100-year floods more severe than the baseline 200-year floods. Riparian zones are projected to face a median rise of inundation by 9.5%–24.1%. Results show that there is an opportunity to mitigate flooding in over half of MAR's counties with the quantities of switchgrass and willow plantings anticipated for mature bioenergy markets, even under the most extreme (200-year) flood events. Our integrated modeling framework can guide similar regions to evaluate opportunities for flood-resilient agricultural systems under climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deep Direct-Use Geothermal Feasibility Study for Hawthorne NV

The Hawthorne Nevada, deep direct-use geothermal study is a two-year effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy to determine the techno-economic feasibility of implementing a large-scale, direct-use facility for the Hawthorne Army Depot (HAD) and the public facilities of the city of Hawthorne and Mineral County. The approach links a production side analysis (PSA) and a demand side analysis (DSA) into a whole-system analysis (WSA) to provide an integrated assessment of the resource and the probability of delivering economically viable direct-use energy to Hawthorne. Hawthorne, Nevada is in the western part of the Basin and Range province and has been the focus of geothermal investigations for over 40 years. Over the last 15 years, several studies completed by the U.S. Navy Geothermal Program Office (GPO) in conjunction with industry professionals quantified the existence of several low temperature geothermal prospects, the most promising of which is called Prospect A. The promise of Prospect A is based on drilling and flow testing that produced ~100 °C water at flow rates of up to 31 l/s (500 gallons per minute). Measured productivity indexes range from 40-85 l/s/MPa, suggesting a warm and productive heat source. Despite the promise of the resource, uncertainties in its spatial extent and long-term sustainability mean that techno-economic analyses must include probabilities of the sustainability of the resource under different operating scenarios. Here, the PSA is conducted by integrating a wide range of disparate data to estimate lognormal P90, P50, and P10 resource capacities. These capacities are used as input to a thermal-hydrologic (T-H) model to estimate thermal drawdown for each capacity estimate for several different DSA scenarios. Using a systems-based approach, the WSA links the dynamic T-H simulations of the PSA/DSA combinations with the techno-economic model GEOPHIRES to account for both the temporal dynamics and uncertainties in the system to produce probabilistic distributions of several performance metrics including the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) and the return on investment (ROI). This report is the final delivery for the project and documents the study's activities and results.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Storage in Long-Term System Models: A Review of Considerations, Best Practices, and Research Needs

Technological change and policy support have heightened expectations for the role of energy storage in power systems, creating a need to enhance representations of energy storage in long-term models to inform decision-making. Energy storage technologies have complex and diverse cost, value, and performance characteristics that make them challenging to model, but there is limited guidance about best practices and research gaps for energy storage analysis. This paper reviews the literature and draws upon our collective experience to provide recommendations to analysts on approaches for representing energy storage in long-term electric sector models, navigating tradeoffs in model development, and identifying research gaps for existing tools and data. The review focuses on national-scale models with technological, temporal, and regional detail given their prevalence in planning and policy, though many insights are transferable to other modeling contexts. It also offers guidance to consumers of model outputs on proper use and interpretation based on model strengths and limitations. In particular, this review demonstrates the importance of capturing how the values of energy storage and other resources change as the system composition changes (e.g. with different levels of storage, renewables deployment, and emissions outcomes). These considerations require model detail like high spatiotemporal resolutions and endogenous investments that global integrated assessment models and price-taker frameworks do not typically resolve. Research gaps include linking tools of different resolutions, developing reduced-form representations of value streams, incorporating hybrid energy storage and renewable systems, and representing longer-duration energy storage technologies.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2023

User’s Manual for Seal_Flux: A Seal Barrier Reduced-Order Model (Update)

This report provides a brief description on the use of the Seal_Flux computer program developed as part of the effort to quantify the risk of geologic storage of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP). The Seal_Flux code simulates the flow of CO 2 through a low permeability rock horizon or seal formation overlying the storage reservoir into which CO 2 is injected. A two-phase, relative permeability approach with Darcy’s law is used for one-dimensional (1D) flow computations of CO 2 through the horizon in the vertical direction. The code also allows the simulation of time-dependent processes that can influence such flow. However, as part of its design, Seal_Flux is what can be termed a “reduced-order model” (ROM) and is not intended as a full-functioning flow code. The theory and simulation in the code is streamlined and directed towards the implementation of Monte Carlo risk analyses of CO 2 transport or as termed in this context as “leakage.” While presented in this report as a stand-alone tool, the Seal_Flux code is intended to function in the future as one of several models as part of an integrated, systems-level model of CO 2 storage performance. Finally, the code is written in Python 3.10 to provide an open framework for further development by others and to assist in linking the code with other modules in an integrated assessment model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2005

Analysis of In-Space Assembly of Modular Systems

Early system-level life cycle assessments facilitate cost effective optimization of system architectures to enable implementation of both modularity and in-space assembly, two key Exploration Systems Research & Technology (ESR&T) Strategic Challenges. Experiences with the International Space Station (ISS) demonstrate that the absence of this rigorous analysis can result in increased cost and operational risk. An effort is underway, called Analysis of In-Space Assembly of Modular Systems, to produce an innovative analytical methodology, including an evolved analysis toolset and proven processes in a collaborative engineering environment, to support the design and evaluation of proposed concepts. The unique aspect of this work is that it will produce the toolset, techniques and initial products to analyze and compare the detailed, life cycle costs and performance of different implementations of modularity for in-space assembly. A multi-Center team consisting of experienced personnel from the Langley Research Center, Johnson Space Center, Kennedy Space Center, and the Goddard Space Flight Center has been formed to bring their resources and experience to this development. At the end of this 30-month effort, the toolset will be ready to support the Exploration Program with an integrated assessment strategy that embodies all life-cycle aspects of the mission from design and manufacturing through operations to enable early and timely selection of an optimum solution among many competing alternatives. Already there are many different designs for crewed missions to the Moon that present competing views of modularity requiring some in-space assembly. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the approach for scoring competing designs.

Moses, Robert W.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Enhancing integrated analysis of national and global goal pursuit by endogenizing economic productivity

Analysis with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and multisector dynamics models (MSDs) of global and national challenges and opportunities, including pursuit of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), requires projections of economic growth. In turn, the pursuit of multiple interacting goals affects economic productivity and growth, generating complex feedback loops among actions and objectives. Yet, most analysis uses either exogenous projections of productivity and growth or specifications endogenously enriched with a very small set of drivers. Extending endogenous treatment of productivity to represent two-way interactions with a significant set of goal-related variables can considerably enhance analysis. Among such variables incorporated in this project are aspects of human development (e.g., education, health, poverty reduction), socio-political change (e.g., governance capacity and quality), and infrastructure (e.g. water and sanitation and modern energy access), all in conditional interaction with underlying technological advance and economic convergence among countries. Using extensive datasets across countries and time, this project broadly endogenizes total factor productivity (TFP) within a large-scale, multi-issue IAM, the International Futures (IFs) model system. We demonstrate the utility of the resultant open system via comparison of new TFP projections with those produced for Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios, via integrated analysis of economic growth potential, and via multi-scenario analysis of progress toward the SDGs. We find that the integrated system can reproduce existing SSP projections, help anticipate differential economic progress across countries, and facilitate extended, integrated analysis of trade-offs and synergies in pursuit of the SDGs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2015

Risk of Impaired Control of Spacecraft/Associated Systems and Decreased Mobility Due to Vestibular/Sensorimotor Alterations Associated with Space flight

Control of vehicles and other complex systems is a high-level integrative function of the central nervous system (CNS). It requires well-functioning subsystem performance, including good visual acuity, eye-hand coordination, spatial and geographic orientation perception, and cognitive function. Evidence from space flight research demonstrates that the function of each of these subsystems is altered by removing gravity, a fundamental orientation reference, which is sensed by vestibular, proprioceptive, and haptic receptors and used by the CNS for spatial orientation, posture, navigation, and coordination of movements. The available evidence also shows that the degree of alteration of each subsystem depends on a number of crew- and mission-related factors. There is only limited operational evidence that these alterations cause functional impacts on mission-critical vehicle (or complex system) control capabilities. Furthermore, while much of the operational performance data collected during space flight has not been available for independent analysis, those that have been reviewed are somewhat equivocal owing to uncontrolled (and/or unmeasured) environmental and/or engineering factors. Whether this can be improved by further analysis of previously inaccessible operational data or by development of new operational research protocols remains to be seen. The true operational risks will be estimable only after we have filled the knowledge gaps and when we can accurately assess integrated performance in off-nominal operational settings (Paloski et al. 2008). Thus, our current understanding of the Risk of Impaired Control of Spacecraft/Associated Systems and Decreased Mobility Due to Vestibular/Sensorimotor Alterations Associated with Space flight is limited primarily to extrapolation of scientific research findings, and, since there are limited ground-based analogs of the sensorimotor and vestibular changes associated with space flight, observation of their functional impacts is limited to studies performed in the space flight environment. Fortunately, many sensorimotor and vestibular experiments have been performed during and/or after space flight missions since 1959 (Reschke et al. 2007). While not all of these experiments were directly relevant to the question of vehicle/complex system control, most provide insight into changes in aspects of sensorimotor control that might bear on the physiological subsystems underlying this high-level integrated function.

Bloomberg, Jacob J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Comparing Transformation Pathways Across Major Economies

This paper aims at providing an overview of the transformation pathways for the seven largest greenhouse-gas (GHG) emitting regions and countries in the world, in line with their contributions to limiting global average temperature increase to well below 2oC as compared to pre-industrial levels. We introduce the methodology for developing these pathways by initially discussing the iterative process by which global integrated assessment models (IAMs) initiated discussions by suggesting boundary conditions in the form of carbon budgets for different regions and countries. The carbon budgets subsequently agreed upon were then used in eleven different regional and national energy-economy models and IAMs for deriving low-carbon pathways in line with a well-below-2oC world. We present a comparative assessment of the resulting regional and national pathways, and of the challenges and opportunities associated with them.

Schaeffer, Roberto↗
DOE OSTI2020

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 Study on Short-Lived Climate Forcers: Introduction and Overview

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF)-30 inter-comparison study on short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) focuses on black carbon (BC) and methane, two of the most important warming SLCFs. The potential impact on climate change of methane and BC-focused emission reductions in the transport and residential sectors were quantified using nine integrated assessment models and a simple climate model. These SLCF reductions reduced global temperatures by 0.18–0.26 °C in 2050 across the models for central climate parameters, with methane being the dominant contributor. The incremental impact of SLCF-focused reductions is much smaller when combined with a broader climate policy. Individual modeling groups examined the health benefits of air pollutant reductions, climate policy co-benefits, and quantified market impacts from air pollutant damages. Model structure and set-up impact on results are discussed along with areas for future work.

Smith, Steven J.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying Value and Representing Competitiveness of Electricity System Technologies in Economic Models

Evaluating competition between electricity technologies is challenging because it depends on both their costs and their values. While technology costs can typically be estimated from projections of the cost components - capital, fuel, and O&M - estimating a technology's value is more complex due to its dependence on its contributions to multiple different grid services, each with prices that can vary substantially over space and time. In this work, using an electricity model of the contiguous United States, we develop relationships between relative value and share of total generation for major electricity generation technologies which, when paired with projections of technology costs, can be used to estimate technology competitiveness. We identify significant differences in the relationship between relative value and generation share for variable renewable energy (VRE) and non-VRE sources, but we demonstrate that all technologies require consideration of their dynamic values (in addition to cost) when evaluating competitiveness. In addition, we demonstrate that relative value of a technology is substantially impacted by not only its own generation share but also other aspects of the system state, in particular the mix of other technologies present in the system. Finally, we use the developed relative value relationships in combination with projections of future technology costs in a coarse resolution model that competes technologies based on a comprehensive competitiveness metric: profitability-adjusted LCOE (PLCOE). We show that this simple representation of technology competition approximately recovers the generation mix from a detailed model, which is not possible using LCOE alone. Such an approach can be used to improve the representation of technology competition in coarse-resolution models such as integrated assessment models, for which simplified metrics are often needed.

electricity model↗