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DOE OSTI2024

Estimating soil N 2 O emissions induced by organic and inorganic fertilizer inputs using a Tier-2, regression-based meta-analytic approach for U.S. agricultural lands

Consistent methods are essential for generating country and region-specific estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions used for reporting and policymaking. The estimates of direct N 2 O emissions from U.S. agricultural soils have primarily relied on the use of emission factors (EFs, Tier-1) and process-based models (Tier-3). However, Tier-1 estimates are relatively crude while Tier-3 calculations can be costly. This work addressed this gap by developing a Tier-2, regression-based approach by leveraging a meta-database containing 1883 field N 2 O observations together with environmental and management covariates from 139 studies. Our results estimated higher monthly soil N 2 O emissions (N 2 O m , kg N/ha) during the growing season (0.38) than the fallow period (0.15), highlighting the importance of considering measurement periods when utilizing meta-databases for analyzing N 2 O drivers. Significantly different N 2 O m were found for tillage practices (conventional > no-till: 0.42 > 0.27), fertilizer type (liquid > solid manure: 0.55 > 0.32), and soil texture (fine > coarse: 0.36 > 0.22). The comparisons of the influence of crop type and rotation, water management, and soil order on N 2 O emissions are complicated by regional data availability and interactions among different factors. Additionally, the finding that N 2 O emissions reported based on area (N 2 O m ), N input rate (EF), or yield can alter treatment rankings underscores the need to establish transparent criteria for rewarding or discouraging regionally-based management practices using N 2 O metrics. Finally, we show how General Linear Models (GLMs) can be used to estimate country and regional Tier-2 N 2 O m using a suite of covariates. Our GLMs identified tillage, water management, N input type and rate, soil properties, and elevation as the most influential covariates for the conterminous U.S. The limited accuracy of regional-scale GLMs, however, suggests the need to further improve the quality and availability of GHG and covariate data through concerted efforts in data collection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1975

Time-controlled descent guidance in uncertain winds

A procedure has been developed for constructing a statistical model of the altitude-dependent mean wind profile from the historical record of wind measurements at particular locations. The model is constructed by fitting a Markov process, with altitude as the stage variable, to the historical wind data. The wind model, together with the aircraft dynamics and the error characteristics of the navigation system, are incorporated in the design of a state estimator, which gives the minimum variance estimate of the aircraft state and the wind vector. The state and wind estimates are used as inputs to a linear feedback law for guiding the aircraft along the nominal trajectory. An example design of a time-constrained (4D RNAV) descent guidance system is presented, showing tracking accuracy, control activity, and probability of arrival time with and without the wind estimator.

Menga, G.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Deep-learning-driven simulations of boundary layer clouds over the Southern Great Plains

Abstract. Based on long-term observations at the Southern Great Plains site by the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program for training and validation, a deep-learning model is developed to simulate the daytime evolution of boundary layer clouds (BLCs) from the perspective of land–atmosphere coupling. The model takes ARM measurements (including early-morning soundings and diurnally varying surface meteorological conditions and heat fluxes) as inputs and predicts hourly estimates (including cloud occurrence, the positions of cloud boundaries, and the vertical profile of the cloud fraction) as outputs. The deep-learning model offers good agreement with the observed cloud fields, especially in the accuracy with which cloud occurrence and base height are reproduced. When the inputs are substituted by reanalysis data from ERA5 and MERRA-2, the outputs of the deep-learning model provide a better agreement with observation than the cloud fields extracted from ERA5 and MERRA-2 themselves. Thus, the deep-learning model shows great potential to serve as a diagnostic tool for the performance of physics-based models in simulating stratiform and cumulus clouds. By quantifying biases in clouds and attributing them to the simulated atmospheric state variables versus the model-parameterized cloud processes, this observation-based deep-learning model may offer insights into the directions needed to improve the simulation of BLCs in physics-based models for weather forecasting and climate prediction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Hot, cold, or just right? An infrared biometric sensor to improve occupant comfort and reduce overcooling in buildings via closed-loop control

To improve occupant comfort and save energy in buildings, we have developed a closed-loop air conditioning (AC) sensor-controller that predicts occupant thermal sensation from the thermographic measurement of skin temperature distribution, then uses this information to reduce overcooling (cooling-energy overuse that discomforts occupants) by regulating AC output. Taking measures to protect privacy, it combines thermal-infrared (TIR) and color (visible spectrum) cameras with machine vision to measure the skin-surface temperature profile. Since the human thermoregulation system uses skin blood flow to maintain thermoneutrality, the distribution of skin temperature can be used to predict warm, neutral, and cool thermal states. We conducted a series of human-subject thermal-sensation trials in cold-to-hot environments, measuring skin temperatures and recording thermal sensation votes. We then trained random-forest classification machine-learning models (classifiers) to estimate thermal sensation from skin temperatures or skin-temperature differences. The estimated thermal sensation was input to a proportional integral (PI) control algorithm for the AC, targeting a sensation level between neutral and warm. Our sensor-controller includes a sensor assembly, server software, and client software. The server software orients the cameras and transmits images to the client software, which in turn assesses occupant skin temperature distribution, estimates occupant thermal sensation, and controls AC operation. A demonstration conducted in a conference room in an office building near Houston, TX showed that our system reduced overcooling, decreasing AC load by 42% when the room was occupied while improving occupant comfort (fraction of “comfortable” votes) by 15 percentage points.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1977

Remote sensing-aided systems for snow qualification, evapotranspiration estimation, and their application in hydrologic models

The design of general remote sensing-aided methodologies was studied to provide the estimates of several important inputs to water yield forecast models. These input parameters are snow area extent, snow water content, and evapotranspiration. The study area is Feather River Watershed (780,000 hectares), Northern California. The general approach involved a stepwise sequence of identification of the required information, sample design, measurement/estimation, and evaluation of results. All the relevent and available information types needed in the estimation process are being defined. These include Landsat, meteorological satellite, and aircraft imagery, topographic and geologic data, ground truth data, and climatic data from ground stations. A cost-effective multistage sampling approach was employed in quantification of all the required parameters. The physical and statistical models for both snow quantification and evapotranspiration estimation was developed. These models use the information obtained by aerial and ground data through appropriate statistical sampling design.

Korram, S.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Version 4.1 Technical Reference Manual

The HyRAM+ software toolkit provides a basis for conducting quantitative risk assessment and consequence modeling for hydrogen, methane, and propane systems. HyRAM+ is designed to facilitate the use of state-of-the-art models to conduct robust, repeatable assessments of safety, hazards, and risk. HyRAM+ integrates deterministic and probabilistic models for quantifying accident scenarios, predicting physical effects, characterizing hazards (thermal effects from jet fires, overpressure effects from delayed ignition), and assessing impacts on people. HyRAM+ is developed at Sandia National Laboratories to support the development and revision of national and international codes and standards, and to provide developed models in a publicly-accessible toolkit usable by all stakeholders. This document provides a description of the methodology and models contained in HyRAM+ version 4.1. The two most significant changes for HyRAM+ version 4.1 from HyRAM+ version 4.0 are direct incorporation of unconfined overpressure into the QRA calculations and modification of the models for cryogenic liquid flow through an orifice. In QRA mode, the user no longer needs to input peak overpressure and impulse values that were calculated separately; rather, the unconfined overpressure is estimated for the given system inputs, leak size, and occupant location. The orifice flow model now solves for the maximum mass flux through the orifice at constant entropy while conserving energy, which does not require a direct speed of sound calculation. This does not affect the mass flow for all-gaseous releases; the method results in the same speed of sound for choked flow. However, this method does result in a higher (and more realistic) mass flow rate for a given leak size for liquid releases than was previously calculated.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS1995

Adaptive noise reduction circuit for a sound reproduction system

A noise reduction circuit for a hearing aid having an adaptive filter for producing a signal which estimates the noise components present in an input signal. The circuit includes a second filter for receiving the noise-estimating signal and modifying it as a function of a user's preference or as a function of an expected noise environment. The circuit also includes a gain control for adjusting the magnitude of the modified noise-estimating signal, thereby allowing for the adjustment of the magnitude of the circuit response. The circuit also includes a signal combiner for combining the input signal with the adjusted noise-estimating signal to produce a noise reduced output signal.

Engebretson, A. Maynard↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of neutron dosimetry capabilities with the MC-15 portable multiplicity counter

This work proposes a preliminary neutron dose rate estimation method for a neutron multiplicity detector through measurement- and simulation-based analyses. Uncharacterized neutron-emitting sources may be encountered in situations such as nuclear emergency response, safeguards, and treaty verification. These circumstances may present irradiation risk to personnel conducting field assay, search, and characterization measurements. It is therefore of interest to provide a field neutron dosimetry capability with the existing neutron multiplicity counting (NMC) capabilities. To date, no commercially-available neutron detection systems are capable of both accurate NMC and real-time neutron dosimetry. This work will focus on estimating dose rate using input from a single fielded NMC called the MC-15. The energy-dependent neutron detection efficiency response of the MC-15 was quantified in monoenergetic neutron simulations and evaluated in response to two neutron-emitting sources and to a polyethylene-moderated source. The results were compared to existing neutron dosimeters and established the proof of concept for further investigation of the MC-15 for dose estimation. Measurement results were also replicated in simulations; additional simulations were then conducted to expand upon the limited empirical data. The initial empirical results provided a conversion factor appropriate for use when measuring 252 Cf neutrons that is independent of polyethylene shielding presence and thickness. The simulated data sets were then used to evaluate a fit equation allowing estimation of the neutron dose rate for less restricted geometric configurations and dependent only on the distance between the source and the detector. Additionally, the energy dependence of the efficiency response indicates that further empirical evaluations could provide energy-dependent conversion factors for broader neutron dosimetry capabilities with a wider range of neutron-emitting sources.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

NASA NTRS2010

Global Precipitation at Your Fingertips, Part I: Data

The most accurate satellite estimates come from the first precipitation radar (PR) to fly in space, aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. Although important for research, the PR's coverage is too limited to give routine monitoring of global precipitation. Rather, we depend on observations of the Earth system's natural emission of microwave energy. Even these data are not available at all times since the satellites on which the microwave sensors fly are in "low Earth orbit", or LEO, some 400-800 km above the surface. Such LEO satellites pass over any given spot on Earth twice a day. In contrast, "geosynchronous Earth orbit", or GEO, satellites at an altitude of about 35,000 km orbit at the same speed that the Earth revolves and therefore always view the same part of the surface. The trade-off is that GEO sensors provide less-precise estimates computed from the Earth system's natural emissions of infrared (IR) energy. Other satellite datasets are used to provide estimates in regions where both microwave and IR have difficulty, such as polar regions or times before mid-1987 when microwave data became available. Finally, rain gauge data where available, have proved to be valuable for helping to reduce biases in the satellite data, which are persistent differences between the satellite estimate and the precipitation that actually occurred. The datasets discussed below take slightly different approaches to mixing and matching the various kinds of input data to create global estimates of precipitation that answer different needs and/or take advantage of different input data. Each is produced at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, in Greenbelt, Maryland, USA. [Other combination datasets are produced at other data centers.]

Huffman, George J.↗

NASA NTRS1980

Identification of flexible aircraft from flight data

This paper describes a frequency-domain method for the estimation of the aeroelastic equations of motion of an aircraft using discrete sinusoidal inputs to the control surface actuators. The theory of estimation of the signal inputs and outputs is described as well as the method of obtaining accurate transfer functions from the resulting Bode plots. Methods of quantifying the accuracy of the results from more than one control input are discussed along with ways to obtain state-space and reduced-order models from the transfer function estimates. Presented is a summary of the results obtained in using the technique to develop a model of the USAF Total In-Flight Simulator (TIFS) aircraft which includes five symmetrical elastic modes of motion of the aircraft.

Eulrich, B. J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

AFLEET: ASSESS THE IMPACTS OF CONVENTIONAL AND ALTERNATIVE FUEL VEHICLES

The Alternative Fuel Life-Cycle Environmental and Economic Transportation (AFLEET) tool, developed by researchers at Argonne National Laboratory for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Clean Cities coalition network, estimates the environmental and economic costs and benefits of alternative fuel and advanced vehicles. Using simple inputs, AFLEET lets fleet managers estimate and compare petroleum use, greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), air pollutant emissions, and cost of ownership for conventional and alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs).

Burnham, Andrew↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Summary of NASA Related Contributions for the Remote Sensing of Evapotranspiration in Support of Water Management and Agriculture

The amount of evapotranspiration (ET) to the atmosphere can account for 60% or more of the water loss in many semi-arid locations, and can critically affect local economies tied to agriculture, recreation, hydroelectric power, ecosystems, and numerous other water-related areas. NASA supports many activities using satellite and Earth science data to more accurately and cost effectively estimate ET. NASA ET related work includes the research, development and application of techniques. The free and open access of NASA satellite data and products now permits a much wider application of ET mapping. Typically the NASA supported approaches ranges from large regional and continental ET mapping using MODIS (also with AIRS and CERES), GRACE (gravimetric water balance), geostationary (e.g., GOES and Meteosat for near continental sca|e), land surface modeling (i.e, Land Data Assimilation Systems) to fine scale mapping such as provided bvLandsatdata(<100 m). Usually satellite or airborne thermal imagery are used as input to an ET estimated surface energy balance based approach. There are currently several of these ET approaches under development and implementation including 'METRIC', 'SEBS', 'ALEXI/DisALEXI', etc.. One exception is an approach using GRACE satellite data that estimates the terrestrial water storage using gravimetric data over large areas and estimates ET indirectly. Also land surface modeling within the context of data assimilation and integration schemes provides the capability to integrate in situ, ancillary and satellite together to provide a spatially and synoptic estimates of ET also for use to provide for short-term ET predictions. We will summarize NASA related activities contributing to the improved estimation of ET for water management and agriculture with an emphasis on the Western U3.. This summary includes a description of ET projects in the Middle Rio Grande, Yakima, North Platte and other selected basins in the western US. We will also discuss plans to further address ET applications through working with the USDA and the Group on Earth Observations (GEO) to extend and evaluate western U.S. ET mapping to other parts of the U.S. and internationally.

Toll, David↗

NASA NTRS1993

A comparative robustness evaluation of feedforward neurofilters

A comparative performance and robustness analysis is provided for feedforward neurofilters trained with back propagation to filter additive white noise. The signals used in this analysis are simulated pitch rate responses to typical pilot command inputs for a modern fighter aircraft model. Various configurations of nonlinear and linear neurofilters are trained to estimate exact signal values from input sequences of noisy sampled signal values. In this application, nonlinear neurofiltering is found to be more efficient than linear neurofiltering in removing the noise from responses of the nominal vehicle model, whereas linear neurofiltering is found to be more robust in the presence of changes in the vehicle dynamics. The possibility of enhancing neurofiltering through hybrid architectures based on linear and nonlinear neuroprocessing is therefore suggested as a way of taking advantage of the robustness of linear neurofiltering, while maintaining the nominal performance advantage of nonlinear neurofiltering.

Troudet, Terry↗

NASA NTRS2009

Advances in Land Data Assimilation at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Research in land surface data assimilation has grown rapidly over the last decade. In this presentation we provide a brief overview of key research contributions by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC). The GSFC contributions to land assimilation primarily include the continued development and application of the Land Information System (US) and the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF). In particular, we have developed a method to generate perturbation fields that are correlated in space, time, and across variables and that permit the flexible modeling of errors in land surface models and observations, along with an adaptive filtering approach that estimates observation and model error input parameters. A percentile-based scaling method that addresses soil moisture biases in model and observational estimates opened the path to the successful application of land data assimilation to satellite retrievals of surface soil moisture. Assimilation of AMSR-E surface soil moisture retrievals into the NASA Catchment model provided superior surface and root zone assimilation products (when validated against in situ measurements and compared to the model estimates or satellite observations alone). The multi-model capabilities of US were used to investigate the role of subsurface physics in the assimilation of surface soil moisture observations. Results indicate that the potential of surface soil moisture assimilation to improve root zone information is higher when the surface to root zone coupling is stronger. Building on this experience, GSFC leads the development of the Level 4 Surface and Root-Zone Soil Moisture (L4_SM) product for the planned NASA Soil-Moisture-Active-Passive (SMAP) mission. A key milestone was the design and execution of an Observing System Simulation Experiment that quantified the contribution of soil moisture retrievals to land data assimilation products as a function of retrieval and land model skill and yielded an estimate of the error budget for the SMAP L4_SM product. Terrestrial water storage observations from GRACE satellite system were also successfully assimilated into the NASA Catchment model and provided improved estimates of groundwater variability when compared to the model estimates alone. Moreover, satellite-based land surface temperature (LST) observations from the ISCCP archive were assimilated using a bias estimation module that was specifically designed for LST assimilation. As with soil moisture, LST assimilation provides modest yet statistically significant improvements when compared to the model or satellite observations alone. To achieve the improvement, however, the LST assimilation algorithm must be adapted to the specific formulation of LST in the land model. An improved method for the assimilation of snow cover observations was also developed. Finally, the coupling of LIS to the mesoscale Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model enabled investigations into how the sensitivity of land-atmosphere interactions to the specific choice of planetary boundary layer scheme and land surface model varies across surface moisture regimes, and how it can be quantified and evaluated against observations. The on-going development and integration of land assimilation modules into the Land Information System will enable the use of GSFC software with a variety of land models and make it accessible to the research community.

Reichle, Rolf↗

DOE OSTI2021

Confronting Domain Shift in Trained Neural Networks

Neural networks (NNs) are known as universal function approximators and can interpolate nonlinear functions between observed data points. However, when the target domain for deployment shifts from the training domain and NNs must extrapolate, the results are notoriously poor. Prior work Martinez et al. (2019) has shown that NN uncertainty estimates can be used to correct binary predictions in shifted domains without retraining the model. We hypothesize that this approach can be extended to correct real-valued time series predictions. As an exemplar, we consider two mechanical systems with nonlinear dynamics. The first system consists of a spring-mass system where the stiffness changes abruptly, and the second is a real experimental system with a frictional joint that is an open challenge for structural dynamicists to model efficiently. Our experiments will test whether 1) NN uncertainty estimates can identify when the input domain has shifted from the training domain and 2) whether the information used to calculate uncertainty estimates can be used to correct the NN’s time series predictions. While the method as proposed did not significantly improve predictions, our results did show potential for modifications that could improve models’ predictions and play a role in structural health monitoring systems that directly impact public safety.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integrating NDVI-Based Within-Wetland Vegetation Classification in a Land Surface Model Improves Methane Emission Estimations

Earth system models (ESMs) are a common tool for estimating local and global greenhouse gas emissions under current and projected future conditions. Efforts are underway to expand the representation of wetlands in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) by resolving the simultaneous contributions to greenhouse gas fluxes from multiple, different, sub-grid-scale patch-types, representing different eco-hydrological patches within a wetland. However, for this effort to be effective, it should be coupled with the detection and mapping of within-wetland eco-hydrological patches in real-world wetlands, providing models with corresponding information about vegetation cover. In this short communication, we describe the application of a recently developed NDVI-based method for within-wetland vegetation classification on a coastal wetland in Louisiana and the use of the resulting yearly vegetation cover as input for ELM simulations. Processed Harmonized Landsat and Sentinel-2 (HLS) datasets were used to drive the sub-grid composition of simulated wetland vegetation each year, thus tracking the spatial heterogeneity of wetlands at sufficient spatial and temporal resolutions and providing necessary input for improving the estimation of methane emissions from wetlands. Our results show that including NDVI-based classification in an ELM reduced the uncertainty in predicted methane flux by decreasing the model’s RMSE when compared to Eddy Covariance measurements, while a minimal bias was introduced due to the resampling technique involved in processing HLS data. Our study shows promising results in integrating the remote sensing-based classification of within-wetland vegetation cover into earth system models, while improving their performances toward more accurate predictions of important greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1997

Thermal and Hydrologic Signatures of Soil Controls on Evaporation: A Combined Energy and Water Balance Approach with Implications for Remote Sensing of Evaporation

The overall goal of this research is to examine the feasibility of applying a newly developed diagnostic model of soil water evaporation to large land areas using remotely sensed input parameters. The model estimates the rate of soil evaporation during periods when it is limited by the net transport resulting from competing effects of capillary rise and drainage. The critical soil hydraulic properties are implicitly estimated via the intensity and duration of the first stage (energy limited) evaporation, removing a major obstacle in the remote estimation of evaporation over large areas. This duration, or "time to drying" (t(sub d)), is revealed through three signatures detectable in time series of remote sensing variables. The first is a break in soil albedo that occurs as a small vapor transmission zone develops near the surface. The second is a break in either surface to air temperature differences or in the diurnal surface temperature range, both of which indicate increased sensible heat flux (and/or storage) required to balance the decrease in latent heat flux. The third is a break in the temporal pattern of near surface soil moisture. Soil moisture tends to decrease rapidly during stage 1 drying (as water is removed from storage), and then become more or less constant during soil limited, or "stage 2" drying (as water is merely transmitted from deeper soil storage). The research tasks address: (1) improvements in model structure, including extensions to transpiration and aggregation over spatially variable soil and topographic landscape attributes; and (2) applications of the model using remotely sensed input parameters.

Salvucci, Guido D.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Thermal and Hydrologic Signatures of Soil Controls on Evaporation: A Combined Energy and Water Balance Approach with Implications for Remote Sensing of Evaporation

The overall goal of this research is to examine the feasibility of applying a newly developed diagnostic model of soil water evaporation to large land areas using remotely sensed input parameters. The model estimates the rate of soil evaporation during periods when it is limited by the net transport resulting from competing effects of capillary rise and drainage. The critical soil hydraulic properties are implicitly estimated via the intensity and duration of the first stage (energy limited) evaporation, removing a major obstacle in the remote estimation of evaporation over large areas. This duration, or 'time to drying' (t(sub d)) is revealed through three signatures detectable in time series of remote sensing variables. The first is a break in soil albedo that occurs as a small vapor transmission zone develops near the surface. The second is a break in either surface to air temperature differences or in the diurnal surface temperature range, both of which indicate increased sensible heat flux (and/or storage) required to balance the decrease in latent heat flux. The third is a break in the temporal pattern of near surface soil moisture. Soil moisture tends to decrease rapidly during stage I drying (as water is removed from storage), and then become more or less constant during soil limited, or 'stage II' drying (as water is merely transmitted from deeper soil storage). The research tasks address: (1) improvements in model structure, including extensions to transpiration and aggregation over spatially variable soil and topographic landscape attributes; and (2) applications of the model using remotely sensed input parameters.

Salvucci, Guido D.↗