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DOE OSTI2022

Exceedance Probabilities and Recurrence Intervals for Extended Power Outages in the United States

Power outages cause significant economic and societal impacts. An increasing likelihood of extreme weather coupled with aging grid infrastructure is leading to a higher prevalence of extended power outages, which can leave customers without power for multiple days or even weeks. Planners at the facility, local, state, and federal levels are interested in resilience solutions to reduce the impacts of extended power outages. Resilience solutions—such as installing backup systems, integrating microgrid solutions, weatherizing buildings, and hardening distribution and transmission components—can reduce the consequences of extended power outages, but these solutions come with increased capital costs. Conducting cost-benefit analyses is important for determining which steps to take to mitigate the impact of power outages without investing in ineffective and cost-prohibitive resilience solutions. The expected benefits of resilience investments depend on the frequency of power outages of various durations, particularly extended outages lasting several hours, days, or weeks. A significant barrier to resilience planning is the lack of publicly available data on the frequency and duration of extended power outages. The absence of outage duration information severely limits the ability to conduct quantitative cost-benefit analyses of resilience investments. This report provides estimates of recurrence intervals and conditional exceedance probabilities for major power outages by U.S. region between 2015 and 2021. Additionally, we provide estimates for grid management, particularly outages caused by California’s public safety power shutoffs (PSPS), and for natural outages caused by major hurricanes. Outage recurrence intervals are the average number of years between outage events, and conditional exceedance probabilities are the likelihoods that a customer who experiences a major power outage will experience an outage exceeding a given duration. Major outage events are those that affect 10,000 or more customers, as defined by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Electric Emergency Incident and Disturbance Report, called OE-417 (DOE 2020). These results can be applied to determine the likelihood of experiencing long-duration outages, which can be integrated into cost-benefit analyses of resilience solutions and broader energy resilience studies. We developed a methodology to estimate customer outage durations for extended outage events using publicly available data on customer outages. Shorter-duration power outages are relatively common, with customers experiencing on average more than one power outage each year lasting fewer than 12 hours. An outage event lasting between 1 day and 1 week is expected to occur between once every 16 years and once every 42 years, depending on the region, with an average recurrence rate of once every 32 years across the contiguous United States.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

The role of international collaboration in the United States geologic disposal research program

Abstract. More than a decade ago, the United States disposal program discontinued all research activities focused on the unsaturated fractured tuff formation at Yucca Mountain as the geologic disposal site for spent fuel and high-level radioactive waste. A new research and development (R&D) program was initiated to provide a sound technical basis for alternative disposal options across clay, crystalline, and salt rocks. The goals of this broad program were (and still are) to (1) increase confidence in the robustness of generic disposal concepts, (2) develop the science and engineering tools needed to support disposal concept implementation, and (3) conduct R&D on the direct disposal of existing dual-purpose (storage and transportation) canisters. Recognizing the benefits of international collaboration toward the common goal of safely and efficiently managing the back end of the nuclear fuel cycle, the program emphasized international cooperation as an effective strategy for sharing information and knowledge. In a multi-laboratory effort coordinated by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, the United States Department of Energy (DOE) program established formal and informal cooperation partnerships with several international initiatives and institutions and developed a number of collaborative R&D activities in important research areas, such as engineered barrier integrity, near-field perturbations, radionuclide transport, performance assessment, and methods for characterization and monitoring of engineered and natural barriers. This presentation gives an overview of these R&D activities, with a specific focus on activities that improve our current understanding of the coupled thermal–hydrological–mechanical–chemical (THMC) processes occurring in engineered and natural barriers. We start with a brief review of selected international collaboration initiatives and then describe a few specific collaboration projects. We focus specifically on such studies that use experimental data sets provided by international research cooperation for joint modeling work to increase confidence in performance-relevant predictions of coupled processes. Overall, the focus on international collaboration has allowed deep engagement of US researchers with the international waste management R&D community in terms of best practices, new scientific advances, state-of-the-art simulation tools, new monitoring and performance confirmation approaches, and lessons learned. The joint R&D with international researchers, worldwide sharing of knowledge and experience, and access to relevant data and experiments from a variety of host rocks have helped our researchers to significantly improve their understanding of the current technical basis for disposal in a range of potential host rock environments. International collaboration also provides ample opportunity for training and educating junior staff that are well suited to move the United States disposal research program forward into the next decades, a promising avenue for developing a next-generation workforce of disposal scientists.

Birkholzer, Jens T.↗

NASA NTRS1968

Silicon surface barrier detectors used for liquid hydrogen density measurement

Multichannel system employing a radioisotope radiation source, strontium-90, radiation detector, and a silicon surface barrier detector, measures the local density of liquid hydrogen at various levels in a storage tank. The instrument contains electronic equipment for collecting the density information, and a data handling system for processing this information.

James, D. T.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Primer to SWIFt 2.0 Technical Information Sheets

More than 16,000 publicly owned municipal wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in the U.S. treat a wide range of wastewater (WW) flows ranging from <0.5 to >200 MGD. Municipal WWTPs act as the last barrier before exposure to water-borne diseases and contaminants, thus serving as a critical infrastructure protecting human health and the environment. A recent survey by the American Society of Civil Engineers assigned the U.S.’s WW infrastructure a grade of D+ because of the number of improvements needed for end-of-life infrastructure with operating conditions being over or under design capacities. With increasing population growth and urbanization, the municipal WW sector needs to grow resiliently and sustainably to accommodate increasing sewer flows in the wake of new infrastructure needs and global priorities. In addition, this growth will be affected by rising concerns over constrained resources (e.g., electricity, energy, and water) and regulations. This necessitates molding the WW sector toward sustainability- and resiliency-related planning and innovations to address current and future needs while simultaneously producing profitable by-products.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1980

Uncertainties in predicting turbine blade metal temperatures

An analysis is presented of the effects of the hot-gas and coolant temperatures, the gas-to-blade and blade-to-coolant heat transfer coefficients, and the thermal conductances of a metal wall and a ceramic thermal-barrier coating on the prediction of local turbine-blade surface temperatures. The analysis was applied to the conditions of an advanced turbofan engine and a 1700 K, 40 atm turbine test rig, and to conditions that simulated the engine at 756 K and 15.6 atm. The results showed that with current information on boundary conditions, geometry, heat-transfer coefficients, and material thermal properties, the uncertainty in predicting and verifying local turbine-blade surface temperatures in an average engine is 98 kelvins or 7.6% of the reference metal absolute temperature for uncoated blades, and 62 kelvins or 5.7% for ceramic-thermal-barrier-coated blades.

Stepka, F. S.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Technical Specification Surveillance Interval Extension Using Self-Diagnostics

As part of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability program, an ongoing research effort is being conducted on technical specifications surveillance interval extension of digital equipment in nuclear power plants. The research team is led by Idaho National Laboratory and includes Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Technology Resources, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. This research focuses on developing methods for applying the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC)–approved guidance to implement a licensee-controlled, risk-informed surveillance frequency change program in digital instrumentation and control (I&C) systems that include self-diagnostics and online monitoring (OLM) capabilities. Although approved methods exist for extending technical specifications (TS) surveillance test intervals (STIs) for general equipment, including analog I&C equipment, gaps remain in technology and guidance on crediting newer digital equipment’s internal self-diagnostics and OLM characteristics. Previous research described a general methodology for crediting internal self-diagnostics for extending surveillance test intervals. The methodology used self-diagnostics to detect—and credited recovery from—failure. Self-diagnostics were also applied for performance monitoring during the extended surveillance interval. This report discusses the status of recent activities to evaluate the previously developed methodology using a pilot study. Although both a utility partner for a pilot study and a specific digital asset were identified in FY2020, delays in obtaining proprietary information resulted in a limited ability to fully evaluate the methodology, and further interactions were complicated by the COVID pandemic. Therefore, at that time, the use of public-domain information—along with current processes for surveillance interval extension through a surveillance frequency control program—identified the need to fully assess diagnostic coverage as part of the pilot study. Furthermore, self-diagnostics were also identified as a potential option to replace the drift analyses conducted as part of current STI extension procedures. In FY2022, the project was reconstituted with the industry partner, and information and data were made available by the industry partner to the research team for review. The shared information included failure event descriptions and data for a digital I&C system since its implementation, as well as recent STI extension interval reports developed by the utility partner on that digital I&C system. This report presents an evaluation of this information and data and describes an application of the proposed methodology cited above. The methodology seeks to take advantage of the self-diagnostics and OLM capabilities to reduce risk or reduce the level of qualitative monitoring assessment needed to perform a risk-informed STI extension using existing NRC approved guidance or both. Addressing these issues of STI extension by crediting self-diagnostics is likely to result in benefits for current and future nuclear power plant (NPP) operations, including lowering the barriers to adoption of digital I&C systems and increasing cost savings by deferring or eliminating unneeded preventive maintenance (tasks or checks or activities). Specifically, self-diagnostic and OLM capabilities of newer digital equipment being installed in non-safety and safety applications are designed to detect failures, provide early warning of potential failures, and notify plant operators to take appropriate action to reduce out of service (OOS) time thus protecting safety margins. Moreover, the equipment is expected to provide information that time-related operational degradation is identified early to ensure timely and planned corrective actions instead of a reactive and unplanned approach ahead of an extended-surveillance interval.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2001

Launcher Systems Development Cost: Behavior, Uncertainty, Influences, Barriers and Strategies for Reduction

This paper will report on the activities of the IAA Launcher Systems Economics Working Group in preparations for its Launcher Systems Development Cost Behavior Study. The Study goals include: improve launcher system and other space system parametric cost analysis accuracy; improve launcher system and other space system cost analysis credibility; and provide launcher system and technology development program managers and other decisionmakers with useful information on development cost impacts of their decisions. The Working Group plans to explore at least the following five areas in the Study: define and explain development cost behavior terms and concepts for use in the Study; identify and quantify sources of development cost and cost estimating uncertainty; identify and quantify significant influences on development cost behavior; identify common barriers to development cost understanding and reduction; and recommend practical, realistic strategies to accomplish reductions in launcher system development cost.

Shaw, Eric J.↗

DOE OSTI2021

High-Resolution Imaging of Unstained Polymer Materials

Electron microscopy has played an important role in polymer characterization. Traditionally, electron diffraction is used to study crystalline polymers while transmission electron microscopy is used to study microphase separation in stained block copolymers and other multiphase systems. We describe developments that eliminate the barrier between these two approaches - it is now possible to image polymer crystals with atomic resolution. The focus of this Review is on high-resolution imaging (30 Å and smaller) of unstained polymers. Recent advances in hardware allow for capturing numerous (as many as 105) low-dose images from an unperturbed specimen; beam damage is a significant barrier to high-resolution electron microscopy of polymers. Machine-learning-based software is then used to sort and average the images to retrieve pristine structural information from a collection of noisy images. Acknowledging the heterogeneity in polymer samples prior to averaging is essential. Molecular conformations in a wide range of amphiphilic block copolymers, polymerized ionic liquids, and conjugated polymers can be gleaned from two-dimensional projections (2D), three-dimensional (3D) tomograms, and four-dimensional (4D) scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) data sets where 2D diffraction patterns are taken as a function of position. Some methods such as phase contrast STEM have been used to image closely related materials such as metal-organic frameworks but not polymers. With improvements in hardware and software, such methods may soon be applied to polymers. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive understanding of the strategies toward the high-resolution imaging of radiation sensitive polymer materials at different length scales.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

DOE Deep Energy Retrofit Cost Survey

A survey was conducted by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory on deep energy retrofit (DER) market drivers, opportunities, and challenges. The survey was part a research study sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy to gather information on the costs of DER from home performance contractors and stakeholders. Cost data was gathered from DER projects that use a comprehensive, whole-home approach to drastically reduce energy use and improve performance. DER projects often aim at reducing energy use by 50% or more. In addition, these projects can improve home comfort and potentially benefiting occupant health. Yet, market adoption of DER has been limited. Major limiting factors include complex projects, high costs, perceived risks, extensive disruption, and unfamiliar work scopes to some contractors. In order to better understand what motivates and deters DER projects in today’s market, a survey was conducted to gather this information, and to learn about promising approaches and technologies from the industry perspective. Past surveys on homeowners and home energy performance professionals have studied the motivations and barriers of energy efficiency retrofits. Two surveys of home energy performance professionals were conducted in recent years. The Resources for the Future (RFF) Home Energy Audit and Retrofit Survey was conducted in 2011 by recruiting energy auditors and retrofit installers through members of Efficiency First and Building Performance Institute (BPI) accredited contractors. The survey asked about the business and services that respondents provide, how often homeowners follow their recommendations to retrofit their homes, and the respondents’ opinion on barriers faced by the industry. The survey found that not enough homeowners know about energy audits, but more importantly, it is the high cost of retrofits compared to low energy prices that is responsible for few energy audits and retrofits being completed. The RESNET Deep Retrofit Industry Stakeholder Survey was conducted shortly after launching of the EnergySmart Home Performance Team program. The EnergySmart Team program involves a formal agreement among allied contractors who are engaged in high performance retrofits. Using this allied team approach, teams can pool their expertise and provide each other with customer referrals. The survey asked EnergySmart Team members and outside stakeholders on questions about market and technical barriers in performing home energy retrofits. Survey respondents identified lack of consumer awareness and lack of affordable financing for consumers as the leading market barriers to home energy retrofits. In their written comments, many survey respondents also echoed that the high costs of retrofit compared to low energy prices is a market barrier. Respondents found “certain housing characteristics that prevent effective retrofit” and “energy analysis software inaccuracy or limitations” are the two leading technical barriers. Their choices for technical barriers were reflective of the energy rater/auditor role played by the majority (78%) of the survey respondents. In comparison to past surveys, this work aimed to gather inputs from a broader segment of the home performance industry to identify the opportunities and barriers faced by DERs from all perspectives. The survey asks for project costs to help breakdown the high costs of DERs. This survey is also motivated by a need to better understand the role of DERs in reducing energy use by the residential sectors and meeting climate goals. The survey is designed towards obtaining more substantive inputs from survey respondents by encouraging written comments, rather than setting the goal to reach a large number of respondents. We took this approach because DER is currently still a niche market, so it is more valuable to gather in-depth inputs from individuals who are performing this work rather than getting to the masses.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Use of Smart Meter Data to Estimate the Voltage Magnitude on the Primary Side of Distribution Service Transformers: Preprint

This paper develops a novel method to estimate the voltage magnitude on the primary side of distribution service transformers. The proposed method relies exclusively on smart meters, and therefore it is fully data-driven. This is an important feature because electric utilities have detailed models of only the primary network--that is, the network between the distribution substation and the primary side of service transformers that are installed closer to end-customer sites. The network that connects the secondary side of service transformers to end-customer sites, referred to as the secondary network, is simply represented by a lumped load. For each secondary network, the proposed method uses data acquired from only 2 smart meters: the closest and the farthest--in the sense of electrical distance--from the service transformer. As a reference to this feature, the proposed method is named SM2Vp. To our knowledge, this is the first time a method is shown to provide actionable information for real-time operation and control of power distribution grids using only two smart meters per secondary network. This is important because utilities have experienced barriers in managing and using large data sets for real-time operation and control. SM2Vp is primarily intended to provide pseudo-measurements for distribution system state estimation, but it can also be used directly for voltage control schemes. The performance of SM2Vp is demonstrated by numerical simulations carried out on three secondary network synthetic models and by using field data provided by a utility partner serving customers in southwestern California. A maximum relative error of approximately 3.9% or less is observed for the primary voltage magnitude estimates in all numerical experiments.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Use of Flooding Probabilistic Risk Assessment

General slide information on using flooding Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) taken from published INL reports or public Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) information. Topics covered are: SDP related to flooding in US Door integrity tests at Idaho State University Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics for external flooding NRC-INL Flood Barrier project

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

DOE OSTI2023

Estimated capital costs of fish exclusion technologies for hydropower facilities

Hydropower is a reliable source of renewable energy, and its future expansion is likely to be in the form of either smaller new stream development (NSD) projects or powering existing non-powered dams. Thresholds for entrainment risk to fish and the requirements for fish exclusion at hydropower facilities often differ depending on the species involved, the characteristics of the facility, and the goals of stakeholders, but little quantitative information is present within the literature regarding the specific costs of fish exclusion measures. Cost data associated with protection, mitigation, and enhancement (PM&E) measures related to positive barrier screening were identified using keyword searches of an existing environmental mitigation cost data set and manual extraction from regulatory licensing documents available in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) eLibrary. This approach yielded a total of 50 p.m.&E mitigation measures with estimated capital construction costs pertaining to positive barrier screens and represented <10% of the 171 total FERC project dockets available in the data set. These data were highly skewed toward conventional relicensing projects, as <7% were associated with NSD projects. Results indicate highly variable costs are associated with fish screening, with flow-normalized costs one to two orders of magnitude higher for screening with the highest exclusion capability (≤0.09 in. spacing) compared with coarser screening (1–2 in.). These data provide an initial baseline for estimating exclusion costs for hydropower development and may help developers consider options for more fish-friendly generation technologies, though gaps remain relating to a lack of data, particularly for NSD projects.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Natural boundaries for scattering amplitudes

Singularities, such as poles and branch points, play a crucial role in investigating the analytic properties of scattering amplitudes that inform new computational techniques. In this note, we point out that scattering amplitudes can also have another class of singularities called natural boundaries of analyticity. They create a barrier beyond which analytic continuation cannot be performed. More concretely, we use unitarity to show that 2 \to 2 2 → 2 scattering amplitudes in theories with a mass gap can have a natural boundary on the second sheet of the lightest threshold cut. There, an infinite number of ladder-type Landau singularities densely accumulates on the real axis in the center-of-mass energy plane. We argue that natural boundaries are generic features of higher-multiplicity scattering amplitudes in gapped theories.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1981

Operational alternatives for LANDSAT in California

Data integration is defined and examined as the means of promoting data sharing among the various governmental and private geobased information systems in California. Elements of vertical integration considered included technical factors (such as resolution and classification) and institutional factors (such as organizational control, and legal and political barriers). Attempts are made to fit the theoretical elements of vertical integration into a meaningful structure for looking at the problem from a statewide focus. Both manual (mapped) and machine readable data systems are included. Special attention is given to LANDSAT imagery because of its strong potential for integrated use and its primary in the California Integrated Remote Sensing System program.

Wilson, P.↗

NASA NTRS1995

WISE: Automated support for software project management and measurement

One important aspect of software development and IV&V is measurement. Unless a software development effort is measured in some way, it is difficult to judge the effectiveness of current efforts and predict future performances. Collection of metrics and adherence to a process are difficult tasks in a software project. Change activity is a powerful indicator of project status. Automated systems that can handle change requests, issues, and other process documents provide an excellent platform for tracking the status of the project. A World Wide Web based architecture is developed for (a) making metrics collection an implicit part of the software process, (b) providing metric analysis dynamically, (c) supporting automated tools that can complement current practices of in-process improvement, and (d) overcoming geographical barrier. An operational system (WISE) instantiates this architecture allowing for the improvement of software process in a realistic environment. The tool tracks issues in software development process, provides informal communication between the users with different roles, supports to-do lists (TDL), and helps in software process improvement. WISE minimizes the time devoted to metrics collection, analysis, and captures software change data. Automated tools like WISE focus on understanding and managing the software process. The goal is improvement through measurement.

Ramakrishnan, Sudhakar↗

DOE OSTI2020

Linkages between Policy and Business Innovation in the Development of China’s Energy Performance Contracting Market

China has a large and growing energy performance contracting (EPC) market, which has played a significant role in driving energy efficiency retrofits and improvements This paper evaluates how policies and business innovations have worked synergistically to expand China’s EPC market. We analyze the interconnected roles of four key factors: incentive policies, China’s Five-Year Plans, and business innovations in diversifying contract models and strengthening measurement and verification. We use multiple data sources for the analysis, including detailed information on business choices in 21 pilot projects, industry-wide surveys, and policy information. Our study indicates that supportive policies were important for the initial market development. As the market was established and continued to grow, the private sector started to take initiatives to address the issues that are left out of the policies, which helped overcome certain market barriers and enabled the sustainable growth of the market. Future policies could incorporate the successful innovations from the businesses to ensure long-term development of China’s EPC market. Understanding these policy and business drivers in a holistic way is critical to understanding how China was able to leverage its relatively small policy investments into much larger transformation of its existing buildings and industrial facilities through energy efficiency retrofits. This in turn can be informative for other countries seeking to achieve large-scale energy efficiency improvements.

Zhou, Yuanrong↗

NASA NTRS2007

Cutting Edge Technologies Presentation: An Overview of Developing Sensor Technology Directions and Possible Barriers to New Technology Implementation

The aerospace industry requires the development of a range of chemical sensor technologies for such applications as leak detection, emission monitoring, fuel leak detection, environmental monitoring, and fire detection. A range of chemical sensors are being developed based on micromachining and microfabrication technology to fabricate microsensors with minimal size, weight, and power consumption; and the use of nanomaterials and structures to develop sensors with improved stability combined with higher sensitivity, However, individual sensors are limited in the amount of information that they can provide in environments that contain multiple chemical species. Thus, sensor arrays are being developed to address detection needs in such multi-species environments. These technologies and technical approaches have direct relevance to breath monitoring for clinical applications. This presentation gives an overview of developing cutting-edge sensor technology and possible barriers to new technology implementation. This includes lessons learned from previous microsensor development, recent work in development of a breath monitoring system, and future directions in the implementation of cutting edge sensor technology.

Hunter, Gary W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Recent developments in catalyst-related PEM fuel cell durability

Cost and durability remain the two major barriers to the widespread commercialization of polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cell (PEMFC)-based power systems, especially for the most impactful but challenging fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) application. Commercial FCEVs are now on the road; however, their PEMFC systems do not meet the cost targets established by the U.S. Department of Energy, primarily due to the high platinum loading needed on the cathode to achieve the requisite performance and lifetime. Furthermore, while the activities of a number of commercial Pt-based alloy cathode catalysts exceed the beginning-of-life (BOL) targets, these activities, and the overall cathode performance, degrade via a variety of mechanisms described herein. Degradation is mitigated in current FCEVs by utilizing a cathode catalyst with a lower BOL activity (e.g., much lower transition metal alloy content and larger BOL nanoparticle size), necessitating higher catalyst loadings, and through the utilization of system controls that avoid conditions known to exacerbate degradation processes, such as limiting the fuel cell stack voltage range. The design and development of active and robust materials and eliminating the need for vehicle mitigation strategies would greatly simplify the operating system, allowing for greater transient operation, avoiding large hybridization, and curtailing of fuel cell power. Although system mitigation strategies have provided the near-term pathway for FCEV commercialization, material-specific solutions are required to further reduce costs and improve operability and efficiency. Future material developments should focus on stabilization of the electrode structure and minimization of the catalyst particle susceptibility to dissolution caused by oxide formation and reduction over PEMFC cathode-relevant operating potentials plus minimization of support corrosion. Ex situ accelerated stress tests have provided insight into the processes responsible for material and performance degradation and will continue to provide useful information on the relative stability of materials and benchmarks for robust and stable materials-based solutions not requiring system mitigation strategies to achieve adequate lifetime.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗