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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of fragmentation on post-inflationary reheating

We consider the effects of fragmentation on the post-inflationary epoch of reheating. In simple single field models of inflation, an inflaton condensate undergoes an oscillatory phase once inflationary expansion ends. The equation of state of the condensate depends on the shape of the scalar potential, V(Φ), about its minimum. Assuming V(Φ) ~ Φ k , the equation of state parameter is given by w = P Φ /ρ Φ = (k - 2)/(k + 2). The evolution of condensate and the reheating process depend on k. For k ≥ 4, inflaton self-interactions may lead to the fragmentation of the condensate and alter the reheating process. Indeed, these self-interactions lead to the production of a massless gas of inflaton particles as w relaxes to 1/3. If reheating occurs before fragmentation, the effects of fragmentation are harmless. We find, however, that the effects of fragmentation depend sensitively to the specific reheating process. Reheating through the decays to fermions is largely excluded since perturbative couplings would imply that fragmentation occurs before reheating and in fact could prevent reheating from completion. Reheating through the decays to boson is relatively unaffected by fragmentation and reheating through scatterings results in a lower reheating temperature.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Probing dark matter isocurvature with primordial non-Gaussianity

Multiple fields can become dynamical during the inflationary epoch. We consider an example where a light field acquires isocurvature fluctuations during inflation and contributes to the dark matter abundance at late times. Interactions between the light field and the adiabatic sector contribute to mixed adiabatic-isocurvature non-Gaussianity (NG). We show the resulting form of NG has a different kinematic dependence than the `local shape' commonly considered, and highlight the parameter space where a dedicated search is expected to significantly improve the current Planck sensitivity. Here, we interpret our results in the context of the QCD axion and illustrate how the proposed NG searches can improve upon the existing searches for isocurvature power spectrum and bispectrum.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Peeking into the next decade in large-scale structure cosmology with its Effective Field Theory

After the successful full-shape analyses of BOSS data using the Effective Field Theory of Large-Scale Structure, we investigate what upcoming galaxy surveys might achieve. We introduce a “perturbativity prior” that ensures that loop terms are as large as theoretically expected, which is effective in the case of a large number of EFT parameters. After validating our technique by comparison with already-performed analyses of BOSS data, we provide Fisher forecasts using the one-loop prediction for power spectrum and bispectrum for two benchmark surveys: DESI and MegaMapper. We find overall great improvements on the cosmological parameters. In particular, we find that MegaMapper (DESI) should obtain at least a 12σ (2σ) evidence for non-vanishing neutrino masses, bound the curvature Ω k to 0.0012 (0.012), and primordial inflationary non-Gaussianities as follows: f NL loc. to ± 0.26 (3.3), f NL eq. to ±16 (92), f NL orth. to ± 4.2 (27). Such measurements would provide much insight on the theory of Inflation. We investigate the limiting factor of shot noise and ignorance of the EFT parameters.

cosmological parameters from LSS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Primordial non-Gaussianity with angular correlation function: integral constraint and validation for DES

ABSTRACT Local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) is a promising observable of the underlying physics of inflation, characterized by $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$. We present the methodology to measure $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data using the two-point angular correlation function (ACF) with scale-dependent bias. One of the focuses of the work is the integral constraint (IC). This condition appears when estimating the mean number density of galaxies from the data and is key in obtaining unbiased $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ constraints. The methods are analysed for two types of simulations: ∼246 goliat-png N-body small area simulations with fNL equal to −100 and 100, and 1952 Gaussian ice-cola mocks with fNL = 0 that follow the DES angular and redshift distribution. We use the ensemble of goliat-png mocks to show the importance of the IC when measuring PNG, where we recover the fiducial values of fNL within the 1σ when including the IC. In contrast, we found a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 100 when not including it. For a DES-like scenario, we forecast a bias of ΔfNL ∼ 23, equivalent to 1.8σ, when not using the IC for a fiducial value of fNL = 100. We use the ice-cola mocks to validate our analysis in a realistic DES-like set-up finding it robust to different analysis choices: best-fitting estimator, the effect of IC, BAO damping, covariance, and scale choices. We forecast a measurement of fNL within σ(fNL) = 31 when using the DES-Y3 BAO sample, with the ACF in the 1 deg < θ < 20 deg range.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Constraining primordial non-Gaussianity from the large scale structure two-point and three-point correlation functions

Surveys of cosmological large-scale structure (LSS) are sensitive to the presence of local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG), and may be used to constrain models of inflation. Local PNG, characterized by f NL ⁠, the amplitude of the quadratic correction to the potential of a Gaussian random field, is traditionally measured from LSS two-point and three-point clustering via the power spectrum and bi-spectrum. We propose a framework to measure f NL using the configuration space two-point correlation function (2pcf) monopole and three-point correlation function (3pcf) monopole of survey tracers. Our model estimates the effect of the scale-dependent bias induced by the presence of PNG on the 2pcf and 3pcf from the clustering of simulated dark matter haloes. We describe how this effect may be scaled to an arbitrary tracer of the cosmological matter density. The 2pcf and 3pcf of this tracer are measured to constrain the value of f NL ⁠. In LSS surveys, the effect of imaging systematics on two-point statistics is often degenerate with the PNG signal. Our proposed model employs three-point statistics primarily to break this degeneracy. Using simulations of luminous red galaxies observed by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI), we demonstrate the accuracy and constraining power of our method. Our forecast indicates the ability to constrain f NL to a precision of σf NL ≈ 22 with one year of DESI survey data, as well as the ability to constrain the imaging systematic weights in situ.

early Universe↗
DOE OSTI2022

Gravitational waves from fully general relativistic oscillon preheating

As long-lived quasisolitons from the fragmentation of a scalar condensate, oscillons may dominate the preheating era after inflation. During this period, stochastic gravitational waves can also be generated. Here we quantify the gravitational-wave production in this period with simulations accounting for full general relativity to capture all possible nonperturbative effects. We compute the gravitational-wave spectra across a range of choices of the oscillon preheating models and compare our results to a conventional perturbative approach on a Friedmann-Lemaître-Robertson-Walker (FLRW) background. We clarify the gauge ambiguities in computing induced gravitational waves from scenarios where dense nonperturbative objects such as oscillons are being formed. In particular, we find that the synchronous gauge tends to contain large artificial enhancements in the gravitational-wave spectrum due to gauge modes if gravity plays an important role in the formation of the oscillons, while other gauge choices, such as the radiation gauge or a suitably chosen “1+log” gauge, can efficiently reduce the contributions of gauge modes. The full general-relativistic simulations indicate that gravitational-wave spectra obtained from the perturbative approach on the FLRW background are fairly accurate, except when oscillon formation induces strong gravitational effects, for which case there can be an order unity enhancement.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Past-completeness of inflationary spacetimes

Here, we discuss the question of whether or not inflationary spacetimes can be geodesically complete in the infinite past. Geodesic completeness is a necessary condition for averting an initial singularity during eternal inflation. It is frequently argued that cosmological models which are expanding sufficiently fast (having average Hubble expansion rate H avg > 0) must be incomplete in null and timelike past directions. This well-known conjecture relies on specific bounds on the integral of the Hubble parameter over a past- directed timelike or null geodesic. As stated, we show this claim is an open issue. We show that the calculation of H avg yields a continuum of results for a given spacetime predicated upon the underlying topological assumptions. We present an improved definition for H avg and introduce an uncountably infinite cohort of cosmological solutions which are geodesically complete despite having H avg > 0. We discuss a standardized definition for inflationary spacetimes as well as quantum (semiclassical) cosmological concerns over physically reasonable scale factors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Minimal production of prompt gravitational waves during reheating

The inflationary reheating phase begins when accelerated expansion ends. As all Standard Model particles are coupled to gravity, gravitational interactions will lead to particle production. This includes the thermal bath, dark matter, and gravitational radiation. Here, we compute the spectrum of gravitational waves from the inflaton condensate during the initial phase of reheating. As particular examples of inflation, we consider the Starobinsky model and T models, all of which are in good phenomenological agreement with cosmic microwave background anisotropy measurements. The T models are distinguished by the shape of the potential about its minimum and can be approximated by V ∼ ϕ k , where ϕ is the inflaton. Interestingly, the shape of the gravitational wave spectrum (when observed) can be used to distinguish among the models considered. As we show, the Starobinsky model and T models with k = 2 , provide very different spectra when compared to models with k = 4 or k > 4 . Observation of multiple harmonics in the spectrum can be interpreted as a direct measurement of the inflaton mass. Furthermore, the cutoff in frequency can be used to determine the reheating temperature. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Plausible constraints and inflationary production for dark photons

Generic constraints on dark photons are generally presented assuming they have Stueckelberg masses. These constraints are strengthened if instead the mass is due to the Higgs mechanism and the dark Higgs is light. First, we show that under reasonable assumptions on the origin of kinetic mixing 𝜀 and perturbativity, the strengthened constraints on 𝜀 cannot be arbitrarily relaxed by making the Higgs heavy. Second, we demonstrate a simple mechanism for generating dark photon dark matter after inflation, where fluctuations of a dark Higgs by stochastic misalignment can produce stable dark photons through ℎ →𝐴′⁢𝐴′ decay. Third, we point out new lower bounds on 𝜀 in the case where the dark photon mediates thermal freeze-out of light dark matter by 𝑠-channel exchange, taking account of generic expectations for the size of 𝜀, and astrophysical upper bounds on the self-interaction cross section.

inflation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Runaway Gravitational Production of Dark Photons

We demonstrate that gravitational particle production of a massive, Abelian, vector (Proca) field during inflation in the presence of nonminimal coupling to gravity may suffer from an instability which leads to runaway production of high-momentum modes. This is untenable unless there is some mechanism to regulate the runaway. We discuss the parameter space of the particle mass and nonminimal couplings where such a runaway occurs and possible ways to tame the runaway. We find that there is no obvious way to resolve the runaway in a UV completion or with kinetic mixing to the standard model.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Differential credibility assessment for statistical downscaling

Climate science is increasingly using (i) ensembles of climate projections from multiple models derived using different assumptions and/or scenarios and (ii) process-oriented diagnostics of model fidelity. Efforts to assign differential credibility to projections and/or models are also rapidly advancing. A framework to quantify and depict the credibility of statistically downscaled model output is presented and demonstrated. Here, the approach employs transfer functions in the form of robust and resilient generalized linear models applied to downscale daily minimum and maximum temperature anomalies at 10 locations using predictors drawn from ERA-Interim reanalysis and two global climate models (GCM; GFDL-ESM2M and MPI-ESM-LR). The downscaled time series are used to derive several impact relevant CLIMDEX temperature indices that are assigned credibility based on (1) the reproduction of relevant large-scale predictors by the GCMs (i.e. fraction of regression beta-weights derived from predictors that are well-reproduced) and (2) the degree of variance in the observations reproduced in the downscaled series following application of a new variance inflation technique. Credibility of the downscaled predictands varies across locations, between the two GCM and is generally higher for minimum temperature than maximum temperature. The differential credibility assessment framework demonstrated here is easy to use and flexible. It can be applied as is to inform decision makers regarding projection confidence, and/or extended to include other components of the transfer functions, and/or used to weight members of a statistically downscaled ensemble.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Zero-Truncated Poisson Tensor Decomposition for Sparse Count Data

We propose a novel statistical inference paradigm for zero-inflated multiway count data that dispenses with the need to distinguish between true and false zero counts. Our approach ignores all zero entries and applies zero-truncated Poisson regression on the positive counts. Inference is accomplished via tensor completion that imposes low-rank structure on the Poisson parameter space. Our main result shows that an $\textit{N}$-way rank-R parametric tensor 𝓜 ϵ (0, ∞) $I$Χ∙∙∙Χ$I$ generating Poisson observations can be accurately estimated from approximately $IR^2 \text{log}^2_2(I)$ non-zero counts for a nonnegative canonical polyadic decomposition. Several numerical experiments are presented demonstrating that our zero-truncated paradigm is comparable to the ideal scenario where the locations of false zero counts are known $\textit{a priori}$.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Analytics-at-scale of Sensor Data for Digital Monitoring in Nuclear Plants (3 rd Annual Report)

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This report primarily focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 ± 0.014, 0.0026 ± 0, and 0.063 ± 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure. This report summarizes the Fiscal Year 2021 research progress encompassing the (1) data cleaning and feature selection necessary for ML applications; (2) development of short-term forecasting models to predict future plant process parameters for both single and multiple time steps ahead; and (3) validation of the feature selection methods and short-term forecasting models given new data from different systems.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook

This report documents the eighth edition of the annual Standard Scenarios. It summarizes 70 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures. In August 2022, the United States Congress passed the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a law aimed at accelerating U.S. decarbonization, clean energy manufacturing, and deployment of new power and end-use technologies. This year’s scenarios include representations of the main electricity-sector provisions from IRA and the potential impact on electricity demand. The Standard Scenarios are simulated using the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) model, which projects utility-scale electricity sector evolution for the contiguous United States using a system-wide, least-cost approach subject to policy and operational constraints. A subset of the scenarios are simulated in the PLEXOS production cost model to obtain a broader suite of metrics at the hourly resolution, which are made available through the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) annual Cambium data sets. The scenarios can be viewed and downloaded from NREL’s Scenario Viewer. Annual results are available for the full suite of scenarios in the Standard Scenarios projects in the viewer, whereas the Cambium projects contain hourly data for a subset of scenarios. The Standard Scenarios includes a scenario called the Mid-case, which has central or median values for core inputs such as technology costs and fuel prices, moderately paced demand growth averaging 1.3% per year, and electricity sector policies as they existed in September 2022 (including IRA). The remaining 69 scenarios are created by varying inputs such as technology and fuel prices, resource availability, demand growth, whether nascent generation technologies are allowed, and by introducing national decarbonization constraints.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncovering hidden market opportunities for advanced nuclear reactors

Decarbonizing to meet aggressive climate change mitigation targets requires energy transition within all sectors. In the industrial sector, global emissions will need to decrease by 65–90% by 2050 to avert warming greater than 1.5°C (Pörtner et al., 2022). Recent U.S. laws, including the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (BIL), Defense Production Act, Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors (or CHIPS), state programs, and other recent laws, have clean energy requirements and provide financial incentives to accelerate the use of clean energy technologies in the industrial sector. These new laws include supporting mechanisms with direct financial support for nuclear power (e.g., advanced reactor development and hydrogen production). However, advanced nuclear could also gain these financial benefits by coupling with low-carbon industrial projects. For example, microreactors could supply low-carbon energy to producers of critical metals that (1) are eligible to receive investment and production tax credits and favorable loans, and (2) the low-carbon product could gain preference in emerging markets for green products.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Investigating the impact of environmental factors on West Nile virus human case prediction in Ontario, Canada

West Nile virus is the most common mosquito borne disease in North America and the leading cause of viral encephalitis. West Nile virus is primarily transmitted between birds and mosquitoes while humans are incidental, dead-end hosts. Climate change may increase the risk of human infections as climatic variables have been shown to affect the mosquito life cycle, biting rate, incubation period of the disease in mosquitoes, and bird migration patterns. We develop a zero-inflated Poisson model to investigate how human West Nile virus case counts vary with respect to mosquito abundance and infection rates, bird abundance, and other environmental covariates. We use a Bayesian paradigm to fit our model to data from 2010–2019 in Ontario, Canada. Our results show mosquito infection rate, temperature, precipitation, and crow abundance are positively correlated with human cases while NDVI and robin abundance are negatively correlated with human cases. We find the inclusion of spatial random effects allows for more accurate predictions, particularly in years where cases are higher. Our model is able to accurately predict the magnitude and timing of yearly West Nile virus outbreaks and could be a valuable tool for public health officials to implement prevention strategies to mitigate these outbreaks.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of Short-Term Forecasting Models Using Plant Asset Data and Feature Selection

Nuclear power plants collect and store large volumes of heterogeneous data from various components and systems. With recent advances in machine learning (ML) techniques, these data can be leveraged to develop diagnostic and short-term forecasting models to better predict future equipment condition. Maintenance operations can then be planned in advance whenever degraded performance is predicted, thus resulting in fewer unplanned outages and the optimization of maintenance activities. This enables lower maintenance costs and improves the overall economics of nuclear power. This paper focuses on developing a short-term forecasting process that leverages a feature selection process to distill large volumes of heterogeneous data and predict specific equipment parameters. A variety of feature selection methods, including Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) and variance inflation factor (VIF), were used to select the optimal features as inputs for three ML methods: long short-term memory (LSTM) networks, support vector regression (SVR), and random forest (RF). Each combination of model and input features was used to predict a pump bearing temperature both 1 and 24 hours in advance, based on actual plant system data. The optimal inputs for the LSTM and SVR were selected using the SHAP values, while the optimal input for the RF consisted solely of the response variable itself. Each model produced similar 1-hour-ahead predictions, with root mean square errors (RMSEs) of roughly 0.006. For the 24-hour-ahead predictions, differences could be seen between LSTM, SVR, and RF, as reflected by model performances of 0.036 +- 0.014, 0.0026 +- 0, and 0.063 +- 0.004 RMSE, respectively. As big data and continuous online monitoring become more widely available, the proposed feature selection process can be used for many applications beyond the prediction of process parameters within nuclear infrastructure.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Screening Tool for Equitable Adoption and Deployment of Solar (STEADy Solar)

The Screening Tool for Equitable Adoption and DeploYment of Solar (STEADy Solar) is a database and mapping tool designed to promoting clean energy investments for low-income communities across the United States. The tool indicates locations that may be eligible for the Investment Tax Credit bonus adders defined in the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and combines this information with demographics, social vulnerability, solar technical potential, solar economics (modeled net present value), and building counts by use-type. It can be used by states, municipalities, community-based organizations, developers, and researchers to identify sites where solar projects may be economical and where federal incentives may be available to support equitable adoption of solar. Specific values include: Areas eligible for the Energy Communities Tax Credit Bonus Program (including brownfield site counts) Areas eligible for the Low Income Communities Bonus Credit Program (including Tribal Lands, and covered affordable housing project counts) Areas categorized as disadvantaged by Justice40 Commercial and Residential Solar economics characterized by the Net Present Value and Simple Payback Period Total Population, Race, and Ethnicity Median Household Income, Poverty rate, Household Tenure Social Vulnerability Count of buildings, developable rooftop solar capacity (in kWdc) and estimated annual generation potential (in kWh) on four building types: Government General Services, Government Emergency Response, Grade Schools, and Colleges/Universities. The linked report describes the STEADy dataset metadata and presents high level insights from the data. The downloadable and formatted excel dataset makes it easy for users to gain insights for their locations. Supporting .csv and shapefiles provide users with the full data to run their own analyses on equitable solar siting.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗