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At least 271 records · Page 15

Modelling climate change impacts on maize yields under low nitrogen input conditions in sub‐Saharan Africa

Smallholder farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA) currently grow rainfed maize with limited inputs including fertilizer. Climate change may exacerbate current production constraints. Crop models can help quantify the potential impact of climate change on maize yields, but a comprehensive multimodel assessment of simulation accuracy and uncertainty in these low‐input systems is currently lacking. We evaluated the impact of varying [CO2], temperature and rainfall conditions on maize yield, for different nitrogen (N) inputs (0, 80, 160 kg N/ha) for five environments in SSA, including cool subhumid Ethiopia, cool semi‐arid Rwanda, hot subhumid Ghana and hot semi‐arid Mali and Benin using an ensemble of 25 maize models. Models were calibrated with measured grain yield, plant biomass, plant N, leaf area index, harvest index and in‐season soil water content from 2‐year experiments in each country to assess their ability to simulate observed yield. Simulated responses to climate change factors were explored and compared between models. Calibrated models reproduced measured grain yield variations well with average relative root mean square error of 26%, although uncertainty in model prediction was substantial (CV = 28%). Model ensembles gave greater accuracy than any model taken at random. Nitrogen fertilization controlled the response to variations in [CO2], temperature and rainfall. Without N fertilizer input, maize (i) benefited less from an increase in atmospheric [CO2], (ii) was less affected by higher temperature or decreasing rainfall and (iii) was more affected by increased rainfall because N leaching was more critical. The model inter-comparison revealed that simulation of daily soil N supply and N leaching plays a crucial role in simulating climate change impacts for low-input systems. Climate change and N input interactions have strong implications for the design of robust adaptation practices across SSA, because the impact of climate change will be modified if farmers intensify maize production with more mineral fertilizer.

Crop simulation model↗

Transient Finite Element Analyses Developed to Model Fan Containment Impact Events

Research is underway to establish an increased level of confidence in existing numerical techniques for predicting transient behavior when the fan of a jet engine is released and impacts the fan containment system. To evaluate the predictive accuracy that can currently be obtained, researchers at the NASA Lewis Research Center used the DYNA 3D computer code to simulate large-scale subcomponent impact tests that were conducted at the University of Dayton Research Institute (UDRI) Impact Physics Lab. In these tests, 20- by 40-in. flat metal panels, contoured to the shape of a typical fan case, were impacted by the root section of a fan blade. The panels were oriented at an angle to the path of the projectile that would simulate the conditions in an actual blade-out event. The metal panels were modeled in DYNA 3D using a kinematic hardening model with the strain rate dependence of the yield stress governed by the Cowper-Simons rule. Failure was governed by the effective plastic strain criterion. The model of the fan blade and case just after impact is shown. By varying the maximum effective plastic strain, we obtained good qualitative agreement between the model and the experiments. Both the velocity required to penetrate the case and the deflection during impact compared well. This indicates that the failure criterion and constitutive model may be appropriate, but for DYNA 3D to be useful as a predictive tool, methods to determine accurate model parameters must be established. Simple methods for measuring model parameters are currently being developed. In addition, alternative constitutive models and failure criteria are being investigated.

Pereira, J. Michael↗

Global blackout following the K/T Chicxulub impact: Results of impact and atmospheric modeling

Several recent studies have suggested that shock decomposition of anhydrite (CaSO4) target rocks during the K/T Chicxulub impact would have ejected tremendous amounts of sulfur gas into the stratosphere. One of the many potential biospheric effects of this sulfur gas is the generation of a sulfuric acid (H2SO4) aerosol layer capable of causing darkness and severe disruption of photosynthesis for periods of years. In this paper we report the preliminary results of our modeling of shock pressures within the anhydrites and of light attenuation by the H2SO4 aerosol cloud. These models indicate that earlier studies over-estimated the amount of sulfur gas produced, but that more than enough was produced to extend global blackout conditions 4-6 times longer than the approximately 3 month predictions for silicate dust alone.

Pope, K. O.↗

LS-DYNA Implementation of Polymer Matrix Composite Model Under High Strain Rate Impact

A recently developed constitutive model is implemented into LS-DYNA as a user defined material model (UMAT) to characterize the nonlinear strain rate dependent behavior of polymers. By utilizing this model within a micromechanics technique based on a laminate analogy, an algorithm to analyze the strain rate dependent, nonlinear deformation of a fiber reinforced polymer matrix composite is then developed as a UMAT to simulate the response of these composites under high strain rate impact. The models are designed for shell elements in order to ensure computational efficiency. Experimental and numerical stress-strain curves are compared for two representative polymers and a representative polymer matrix composite, with the analytical model predicting the experimental response reasonably well.

Zheng, Xia-Hua↗

The Ability of NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model to Replicate in Situ Impact Data

Meteoroid environment models must describe the mass, directionality, velocity, and density distributions of meteoroids in order to correctly predict the rate at which meteoroids impact spacecraft. We present an updated version of NASA's Meteoroid Engineering Model (MEM) that better captures the correlation between directionality and velocity and incorporates a bulk density distribution. We compare the resulting model with the rate of large particle impacts seen on the Long Duration Exposure Facility (LDEF) and the Pegasus I and II satellites. The updated model shows closer agreement with these in situ data than previous versions of MEM.

Moorhead, Althea V.↗

Overview of Coupon Testing of an IM7/8552 Composite Required to Characterize High-Energy Impact Dynamic Material Models

As part of NASA’s Advanced Composites Project (ACP), a significant research effort was established to develop and mature analysis methods for composite materials particularly applicable to high-energy dynamic impact applications. An overall goal was to develop and advance analysis methods that can be characterized using fundamental coupon level tests. Based on this fundamental characterization, simulations at the higher levels of a building block approach can be purely predictive. The tests described in this report were performed on a unidirectional carbon fiber polymer matrix composite, IM7/8552 tape, as this material system is representative of a modern aerospace grade carbon fiber tape system. These tests were chosen to provide fundamental material characterization data for three representative progressive damage and failure analysis material models available within the LS-DYNA commercial transient dynamic finite element code for use in the simulation of the dynamic and impact response of composite materials. Two of the material models, MAT162 and MAT261, are well established material models within LS-DYNA. The third material model, MAT213, is under active development. Testing consisted primarily of ASTM-type standard tests, and the tests that were performed were consistent with the needs of all three models. Additionally, coupon level tests were performed that can be used to characterize a delamination model (e.g., cohesive zone or tie-break contact). While, the tests described in this report provide fundamental material characterization data for all three of the material models mentioned above, the data is applicable to additional material models not discussed.

Justusson, Brian P.↗

A Chemical Model of Micrometeorite Impact into Olivine

Laboratory simulations of space weathering using laser irradiation have been successful in reproducing space weathering characteristics such as the reduction of olivine to form nanophase iron particles. However, the chemistry of the reduction of Fe2+ in olivine to Fe metal has not been fully explored. We present a thermodynamic model of olivine undergoing post-impact cooling and decompression.

Sheffer, A. A.↗

Delaminations in composite plates under transverse static or impact loads - A model

A method is presented for calculating the locations, shapes, and sizes of delaminations which occur in a fiber reinforced composite plate subjected to transverse static or dynamic (impact) loads. The plate may be simply supported, clamped, or free along its edges. A model of the delamination formation was developed. This model was then coupled with a finite element analysis. The model and the finite element analysis were implemented by a computer code which can be used to estimate the load at which damage is initiated as well as the locations, shapes, and sizes of the delaminations.

Finn, Scott R.↗

Incorporation of Damage and Failure into an Orthotropic Elasto-Plastic Three-Dimensional Model with Tabulated Input Suitable for Use in Composite Impact Problems

A material model which incorporates several key capabilities which have been identified by the aerospace community as lacking in the composite impact models currently available in LS-DYNA(Registered Trademark) is under development. In particular, the material model, which is being implemented as MAT 213 into a tailored version of LS-DYNA being jointly developed by the FAA and NASA, incorporates both plasticity and damage within the material model, utilizes experimentally based tabulated input to define the evolution of plasticity and damage as opposed to specifying discrete input parameters (such as modulus and strength), and is able to analyze the response of composites composed with a variety of fiber architectures. The plasticity portion of the orthotropic, three-dimensional, macroscopic composite constitutive model is based on an extension of the Tsai-Wu composite failure model into a generalized yield function with a non-associative flow rule. The capability to account for the rate and temperature dependent deformation response of composites has also been incorporated into the material model. For the damage model, a strain equivalent formulation is utilized to allow for the uncoupling of the deformation and damage analyses. In the damage model, a diagonal damage tensor is defined to account for the directionally dependent variation of damage. However, in composites it has been found that loading in one direction can lead to damage in multiple coordinate directions. To account for this phenomena, the terms in the damage matrix are semi-coupled such that the damage in a particular coordinate direction is a function of the stresses and plastic strains in all of the coordinate directions. The onset of material failure, and thus element deletion, is being developed to be a function of the stresses and plastic strains in the various coordinate directions. Systematic procedures are being developed to generate the required input parameters based on the results of experimental tests.

Finite Element Method↗

Impact of Land Model Calibration on Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) interactions play a critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry and wet land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through calibration of the Noah land surface model using the new optimization and uncertainty estimation subsystem in NASA's Land Information System (LIS-OPT/UE). The impact of the calibration on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) the simulated heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF simulations is then assessed. Changes in ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling are evaluated along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Results indicate that the offline calibration leads to systematic improvements in land-PBL fluxes and near-surface temperature and humidity, and in the process provide guidance on the questions of what, how, and when to calibrate land surface models for coupled model prediction.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

The Use of Indirect Estimates of Soil Moisture to Initialize Coupled Models and its Impact on Short-Term and Seasonal Simulations

It is well known that soil moisture is a characteristic of the land surface that strongly affects the partitioning of outgoing radiation into sensible and latent heat which significantly impacts both weather and climate. Detailed land surface schemes are now being coupled to mesoscale atmospheric models in order to represent the effect of soil moisture upon atmospheric simulations. However, there is little direct soil moisture data available to initialize these models on regional to continental scales. As a result, a Soil Hydrology Model (SHM) is currently being used to generate an indirect estimate of the soil moisture conditions over the continental United States at a grid resolution of 36 Km on a daily basis since 8 May 1995. The SHM is forced by analyses of atmospheric observations including precipitation and contains detailed information on slope soil and landcover characteristics.The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the utility of initializing a detailed coupled model with the soil moisture data produced by SHM.

Lapenta, William M.↗

A Numerical Study of the Urban Heat Island in the Coastal Tropical City of San Juan, Puerto Rico: Model Validation and Impacts of LCLU Changes

Urban sprawls in tropical locations are rapidly accelerating and it is more evident in islands where a large percentage of the population resides along the coasts. This paper focuses on the analysis of the impacts of land use and land cover for urbanization in the tropical coastal city of San Juan, in the tropical island of Puerto Rico. A mesoscale numerical model, the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS), is used to study specific characteristics and patterns of the urban heat island in the San Juan Metropolitan Area (SJMA), the most noticeable urban core of the Caribbean. The research present in this paper makes use of the observations obtained during the airborne San Juan Atlas Mission in two ways. First, surface and rawinsonde data are used to validate the atmospheric model yielding satisfactory results. Second, airborne remote sensing information is used to update the model's surface characteristics to obtain a detailed configuration of the SJMA in order to perform the LCLU changes impact analysis. This analysis showed that the presence of San Juan has an impact reflected in higher air temperatures over the area occupied by the city, with positive values of up to 2.5 C, for the simulations that have specified urban LCLU indexes in the bottom boundary. One interesting result of the impact analysis was the finding of a precipitation disturbance shown as a difference in total accumulated rainfall between simulation with the city and with a potential natural vegetation induced by the presence of the urban area. Model results indicate that the urban-induced cloud formation and precipitation development occur mainly downwind of the city, including the accumulated precipitation. This spatial pattern can be explained by the presence of a-larger urbanized area in the southwest sector of the city, and of the approaching northeasterly trade winds.

Comarazamy, Daniel E.↗

Models for Liquid Impact Onboard Sloshsat FLEVO

Orbital experiments on the behavior of liquid in spacecraft are planned. The Sloshsat free-flyer is described. Preparation of the experiments, and later evaluation, are supported by models of varying complexity. The characteristics of the models are discussed. Particular attention is given to the momentum transfer between the liquid and the spacecraft, in connection with the liquid impact that may occur at the end of a reorientation maneuver of the spacecraft.

Vreeburg, Jan P. B.↗

An Investigation of the Impact of Aerodynamic Model Fidelity on Close-In Combat Effectiveness Prediction in Piloted Simulation

Several aircraft airframe modeling approaches are currently being used in the DoD community for acquisition, threat evaluation, training, and other purposes. To date there has been no clear empirical study of the impact of airframe simulation fidelity on piloted real-time aircraft simulation study results, or when use of a particular level of fidelity is indicated. This paper documents a series of piloted simulation studies using three different levels of airframe model fidelity. This study was conducted using the NASA Langley Differential Maneuvering Simulator. Evaluations were conducted with three pilots for scenarios requiring extensive maneuvering of the airplanes during air combat. In many cases, a low-fidelity modified point-mass model may be sufficient to evaluate the combat effectiveness of the aircraft. However, in cases where high angle-of-attack flying qualities and aerodynamic performance are a factor or when precision tracking ability of the aircraft must be represented, use of high-fidelity models is indicated.

Persing, T. Ray↗

A Minimax Network Flow Model for Characterizing the Impact of Slot Restrictions

This paper proposes a model for evaluating long-term measures to reduce congestion at airports in the National Airspace System (NAS). This model is constructed with the goal of assessing the global impacts of congestion management strategies, specifically slot restrictions. We develop the Minimax Node Throughput Problem (MINNTHRU), a multicommodity network flow model that provides insight into air traffic patterns when one minimizes the worst-case operation across all airports in a given network. MINNTHRU is thus formulated as a model where congestion arises from network topology. It reflects not market-driven airline objectives, but those of a regulatory authority seeking a distribution of air traffic beneficial to all airports, in response to congestion management measures. After discussing an algorithm for solving MINNTHRU for moderate-sized (30 nodes) and larger networks, we use this model to study the impacts of slot restrictions on the operation of an entire hub-spoke airport network. For both a small example network and a medium-sized network based on 30 airports in the NAS, we use MINNTHRU to demonstrate that increasing the severity of slot restrictions increases the traffic around unconstrained hub airports as well as the worst-case level of operation over all airports.

Lee, Douglas W.↗

Error detection process - Model, design, and its impact on computer performance

An analytical model is developed for computer error detection processes and applied to estimate their influence on system performance. Faults in the hardware, not in the design, are assumed to be the potential cause of transition to erroneous states during normal operations. The classification properties and associated recovery methods of error detection are discussed. The probability of obtaining an unreliable result is evaluated, along with the resulting computational loss. Error detection during design is considered and a feasible design space is outlined. Extension of the methods to account for the effects of extant multiple faults is indicated.

Shin, K. G.↗