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At least 271 records · Page 15

PCAST: Report to the President on Improving Groundwater Security in the United States

The President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) is the sole body of advisors from outside the federal government charged with making science, technology, and innovation policy recommendations to the President and the White House. Established by Executive Order, it is an independent Federal Advisory Committee comprised of distinguished individuals from industry, academia, and non-profit organizations with a range of perspectives and expertise. On December 14, 2024, PCAST sent a report to the President with recommendations to enhance groundwater stewardship and resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PCAST: Report to the President Review of the Networking and Information Technology Research and Development Program

The President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) is the sole body of advisors from outside the federal government charged with making science, technology, and innovation policy recommendations to the President and the White House. Established by Executive Order, it is an independent Federal Advisory Committee comprised of distinguished individuals from industry, academia, and non-profit organizations with a range of perspectives and expertise. On December 5, 2024, PCAST sent a report to the President with recommendations to strengthen and improve the NITRD program and its activities to provide an even greater positive impact for the Nation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Creep-Resistant Ferritic-Martensitic Steels for Power Plant Applications

Creep-resistant ferritic-martensitic steels are essential materials used in power plants for electricity generation. The efficiency and emissions of the plant are closely related to the operating temperature. Materials used in the hottest sections are one of the main limiting factor for plant operation at 650 °C. This review describes the recent development of creep-resistant ferritic-martensitic steels from a large dataset of in-house research. The findings are tied to available literature for discussion. A first steel, CPJ-7, was developed with an operating temperature approaching 650 °C, and a refined design, JMP, showed the potential to operate at 650 °C. Approximately fifty different ingots, each weighing ~ 7 kg, were vacuum induction melted and processed. Overall, wrought and cast versions of CPJ-7 present superior creep properties when compared to wrought and cast versions of COST alloys for steam turbine and P91/92 for boiler applications. The prolonged creep life was attributed to slowing down the process of the destabilization of the MX and M 23 C 6 precipitates at 650 °C. The cast version of CPJ-7 also revealed superior mechanical performance, above commercially available cast 9% Cr martensitic steel or derivatives. Following the work on CPJ-7, the JMP steels were designed with higher Co for increased solid solution strengthening, Si for oxidation resistance and increased W for matrix strength and stability. The JMP steels showed increases in creep life compared to CPJ-7 between 118 and 150% at 650 °C for testing at various stresses between 138 and 207 MPa. On a Larson–Miller plot, the performance of the JMP steels surpasses that of state-of-the-art MARBN steel. The influence of various elements within the composition of the alloys on the microstructure and mechanical properties is discussed. This review presents approximately 420,000 h of in-house creep testing, the equivalent of almost 50 years of cumulative creep tests.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Investigation of pre-cooling as a recommended measure to improve residential buildings’ thermal resilience during heat waves

More intense heat waves are expected to occur more frequently in the twenty-first century. During severe heat waves, cooling capacity shortfall and overheating are likely to occur in residential buildings, and this will adversely affect occupant's thermal comfort and productivity. We propose a strategy of pre-cooling the house during off-peak hours to mitigate overheating during heat waves. Additionally, simulation results of a prototype single-family house show that adopting the rule-based control (RBC) of pre-cooling thermostat setpoint schedule is effective in reducing thermal discomfort, and that the efficacy of pre-cooling depends upon several building characteristics. An optimized control (OC) of the thermostat setpoint schedule was developed based on the simulation of a prototype building. A simplified yet improved RBC (IRBC) pre-cooling schedule was then extracted from the OC schedule for practical implementation at a larger scale. The effects of the RBC schedule and IRBC schedule were evaluated in the King District of Fresno, which contains 814 residential buildings. Results show that both thermostat setpoint schedules can reduce overheating effectively and that IRBC is slightly better than RBC for most buildings. The findings support the California government's recommendation on pre-cooling to mitigate overheating, which can be further improved with an optimized thermostat setpoint schedule broadcast to residents through early alert messages before a heat wave.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

High-performance windows improve thermal survivability of occupants during cold snaps

Exposure to low indoor air temperature is a major contributor to temperature-related mortality during extreme cold events, especially when power outages disrupt operation of space heating systems. This study explores the impact of high-performance windows on the thermal resilience of residential buildings during extreme cold weather and grid power outages, as well as their long-term benefits through energy efficiency and reduced risk of property damage. Building performance simulations were conducted for reference residential buildings in three construction vintages and two major U.S. cities located in cold climate zones, considering two types of extreme cold events: short and severe, and long and milder. Our research found that even houses compliant with current energy codes struggle to maintain safe indoor temperatures for more than a few hours during power outages, necessitating rapid evacuations. High-performance windows can extend the thermal survivability time by up to 3.8 days within a 7-day cold snap and significantly reduce risk of bursting frozen water pipes, depending on the building’s insulation and infiltration level, cold event severity, and occupant vulnerability. This extended thermal safety time is crucial in scenarios where reduced mobility complicates emergency responses in senior housing. In addition to boosting thermal resilience, upgrading older homes with high-performance windows can reduce heating energy consumption by over 18% and cooling energy by 15%. Our findings highlight the need to incorporate thermal resilience assessments into new designs or major retrofits, including the use of typical and extreme weather scenarios and advanced technologies like high-performance windows.

Krelling, Amanda F↗

The impact of behavioral and geographic heterogeneity on residential-sector carbon abatement costs

Analyses of monetary and emissions savings from residential efficiency upgrades usually neglect behavioral differences between consumers. Variations in behavior are frequently large: 13% of the U.S. population sets thermostats for cooling at 20 °C (68 °F) or lower and 15% at 25.5 °C (78 °F) or higher. Efficiency analyses should account for behavioral heterogeneity as well as variations in climate and housing characteristics. We model energy and economic savings of efficiency upgrades for U.S. single-family detached houses, accounting for differences in thermostat settings, climate zone, fuel prices, and home characteristics. We consider five efficiency interventions: wall insulation, attic insulation, air sealing, high-efficiency furnaces, and high-efficiency air conditioners. Energy and economic savings vary widely by consumer; the average net present value for wall insulation is $3,020 United States Dollar (USD), but considering heterogeneity, it has a 10th percentile value of -$231 and 90th percentile value of $5,000. Neglecting heterogeneity, technology upgrades can be prioritized from lower to higher carbon abatement costs: air conditioners, wall insulation, furnace, air sealing, and attic insulation. Accounting for heterogeneity reorders this prioritization, and consumer-specific conditions affect mitigation costs such that technologies are mixed in with one another and are no longer arranged one after another. These results indicate that interventions to improve efficiency should consider differences between consumers.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Component-Level Analysis of Heating and Cooling Loads in the U.S. Residential Building Stock

The residential building sector accounts for a substantial portion of total energy consumption in the United States and offers a significant opportunity for energy reduction and decarbonization through improvements in energy efficiency. Heating and air conditioning are the primary contributors to residential energy usage and electricity system peak demand. However, due to the diversity of the housing stock and the complexity of factors affecting heating and cooling demand, identifying the relative contributions to heating and cooling loads poses challenges. To address this, we applied the ResStock analysis tool to simulate 550,000 building energy models, providing statistical representation of residential buildings in the contiguous United States. We introduced outputs that quantified the heating and cooling influence of different components of a home, such as air leakage, envelope components (ceilings, walls, windows, foundations), internal heat gains from people, lighting, plug loads, and duct losses and gains. Leveraging the granularity of ResStock, we present a dataset to enable deeper understanding of the contributors to heating and cooling loads as a function of housing characteristics such as location, envelope efficiency, and building type. This work aims to support prioritization of research and development and informed decision-making for residential building decarbonization.

building simulation↗

Framework to select robust energy retrofit measures for residential communities

Residential building energy retrofits are essential for enhancing environmental sustainability and reducing energy costs. The selection of retrofit measures is influenced by factors such as building systems, occupant behavior, government policy, weather variability, and climate change, all of which can significantly impact energy performance. Compared to retrofitting individual homes, evaluating and selecting optimal retrofit solutions for an entire community is challenging due to diverse residential compositions and variability present. Therefore, engineering robustness is crucial for ensuring consistent energy performance and resilience across different conditions. In this context, robustness refers to the ability of a retrofit measure to maintain its functionality and remain an optimal choice despite external disturbances or changes in inputs and conditions. This study presents a framework for evaluating the robustness of multiple retrofit measures across various building systems, occupant behaviors, and environmental scenarios at the community level. The framework comprises five key steps: scenario model development, integration of the National Residential Efficiency Measures database, energy performance simulation, cost-benefit aggregation, and retrofit solution selection. Each step enhances the framework’s robustness by incorporating the diversity of building characteristics, occupant behaviors, environmental conditions, retrofit options, and evaluation criteria. The framework’s effectiveness is demonstrated through a case study in southern Michigan in the United States, which includes 63 one-story single-family houses, 121 two-story single-family houses, and 8 townhouses. The study identifies furnace retrofits as the most robust solution for the entire community, consistently achieving source energy reductions of 4.7 %–8.0 % and payback period of 10–20 years across various scenarios. These findings are consistent with previous research, indicating the framework’s potential for broader applications in optimizing community-scale residential energy retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗

Envelope-driven comfort risk in residential demand response

Residential demand response (DR) is a valuable resource for grid reliability, but remains challenging because the highly heterogeneous residential building stock leads to widely varying and hard-to-predict load and comfort responses during DR events. Although prior research has estimated the technical potential of DR-capable technologies for achieving energy demand savings, little is known about how they affect thermal comfort. In particular, it remains unclear how indoor thermal conditions due to DR depend on the thermal envelope characteristics of the housing stock. To address this gap, this study provides a systematic, location-specific assessment of indoor thermal performance during DR-events across the US housing stock using both typical DR weather data and detailed building metadata. We evaluate how envelope characteristics influence indoor temperatures during realistic simulated summer and winter DR events across 37 US locations, applying both temperature threshold and rate of temperature change criteria to estimate region-level probabilities of discomfort. Additionally, we show the impact of distinct weather patterns that intensify or abate thermal stress on comfort outcomes. Results show a near-universal overheating risk in summer DR events, where comfort outcomes are strongly influenced by rapid risk of comfort violations. In contrast, overall winter DR discomfort risk is lower, risk escalation is more gradual and shows greater sensitivity to event duration. These findings offer a data-driven quantification of comfort risk across diverse climates and building envelopes, demonstrating the need for region-specific DR scheduling and discomfort mitigation strategies tailored to local weather patterns and the performance of existing residential buildings.

Demand response↗

Techno-economic feasibility of geothermal energy production using inactive oil and gas wells for district heating and cooling systems in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Oil and gas wells have been drilled in the United States and often encounter hot co-produced water possibly suitable for geothermal direct-use applications. Here this study evaluated geothermal resources, heating and cooling demand, and techno-economic potential of four oil and gas wells repurposed for geothermal energy production to serve two public schools and 250 nearby houses in Tuttle, Oklahoma, USA. Subsurface geology in the study area primarily consists of Permian to Mississippian sandstone and limestone formations approximately from 2 km to 3.5 km depth. With a geothermal gradient of 25.3 °C/km, the temperature of geothermal energy production was estimated as 68.2 °C at 2.1 km. The potential of calcite scaling within boreholes and pipes was minimal. Using the characterized reservoir properties, techno-economic analyses were conducted for evaluating levelized costs of geothermal energy production for direct-use heating and cooling and district heating systems with five different production scenarios. Heating and cooling demand in two schools and 250 houses and additional 0.3 MW and 0.6 MW base heating loads for potential geothermal direct-use applications in the study area were also incorporated in the modeling. Results indicated that the levelized cost of heating of geothermal district heating systems utilizing existing wells were significantly lower than those of conventional geothermal energy systems that include well drillings. The geothermal energy production with doublet and quartet configurations was generally sufficient to supply total annual heating demand in the district, while a peaking boiler was used to supply peak loads. Doublet configurations showed higher production temperature with a lower thermal drawdown than the quartet configurations. The doublet system at 2.1 km production depth with 9.3 kg/s flow rate represented the optimal levelized cost of $71/MWh and 91.2% utilization factor. These results imply that the Tuttle geothermal district heating system is techno-economically feasible and comparable to geothermal district heating systems in the United States and the regional natural gas rate for residentials by recycling inactive oil and gas wells with no drillings.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Personal and environmental predictors of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon exposure identified through repeated silicone wristband sampling

This study integrates quantitative data on personal exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in 162 silicone wristbands with demographics, behavioral information, and housing characteristics to explore contributions to residential exposure in a superfund-adjacent community over the course of a year. Forty-six residents completed questionnaires and wore silicone wristbands as personal passive samplers for seven consecutive days on up to four separate occasions in alternating months between November 2022 and June 2023. It was hypothesized that individual behaviors and housing characteristics are sources of dependence and correlation between personal PAH exposures. 50 PAHs were detected at least once, 17 of which were alkylated PAHs. Exposure to PAHs of similar molecular weight was often correlated, notably between naphthalenes (2-rings) and higher molecular weight PAHs (3 or more rings). Generalized linear mixed models identified flooring type, participant age, and sampling month as important predictors of increased PAH exposure, and flooring type, and use of wood stoves or heavy machinery as predictors of increased naphthalene exposure relative to higher molecular weight PAHs. Individual chemical models based on concentration data and detection frequencies corroborated these findings across multiple PAHs. We demonstrate that personal exposure is not static and the degree of variability in personal exposure is individual. Hence, identification of influential exposure factors through repeated measures of chemical exposure and characterization of variability in personal exposure as performed in this study, is important in the development of exposure mitigation strategies.

Bonner, Emily↗

Uplifting winds: The surprisingly positive community-wide impact of wind energy installations on property values

A primary concern of stakeholders when considering a new wind project is the potential negative effects wind turbines may have on home values. Yet, what has been surprisingly overlooked in the literature and general discourse around wind energy is that the well-researched positive economic development and fiscal and amenity benefits of wind energy (e.g., increased tax base, tax revenue, better public services and employment gains) might positively affect jurisdiction-wide housing values. With a focus on school districts in the United States, we compare home values in school districts with wind energy installations, before and after a wind energy installation becomes operational, to home values in other school districts located in the same county but without a wind energy installation to provide some of the first causal evidence on the relationship between wind energy projects and district-wide property values. We find that wind projects lead to economically meaningful increases in district-wide housing values of approximately 3 %, when those values are compared to similar homes located in school districts in same-county without wind energy. The effect is strongly correlated with wind project size. The mechanisms, our research suggests, are likely related to relatively large increases in school district per-pupil revenues and expenditures, which are also correlated with wind project size. We suggest other possible mechanisms for the increased values as well.

Attitudes↗

Deep learning uncertainty quantification for clinical text classification

Machine learning algorithms are expected to work side-by-side with humans in decision-making pipelines. Thus, the ability of classifiers to make reliable decisions is of paramount importance. Deep neural networks (DNNs) represent the state-of-the-art models to address real-world classification. Although the strength of activation in DNNs is often correlated with the network’s confidence, in-depth analyses are needed to establish whether they are well calibrated. In this paper, we demonstrate the use of DNN-based classification tools to benefit cancer registries by automating information extraction of disease at diagnosis and at surgery from electronic text pathology reports from the US National Cancer Institute (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) population-based cancer registries. In particular, we introduce multiple methods for selective classification to achieve a target level of accuracy on multiple classification tasks while minimizing the rejection amount—that is, the number of electronic pathology reports for which the model’s predictions are unreliable. We evaluate the proposed methods by comparing our approach with the current in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier. Overall, all the proposed selective classification methods effectively allow for achieving the targeted level of accuracy or higher in a trade-off analysis aimed to minimize the rejection rate. On in-distribution validation and holdout test data, with all the proposed methods, we achieve on all tasks the required target level of accuracy with a lower rejection rate than the deep abstaining classifier (DAC). Interpreting the results for the out-of-distribution test data is more complex; nevertheless, in this case as well, the rejection rate from the best among the proposed methods achieving 97% accuracy or higher is lower than the rejection rate based on the DAC. We show that although both approaches can flag those samples that should be manually reviewed and labeled by human annotators, the newly proposed methods retain a larger fraction and do so without retraining—thus offering a reduced computational cost compared with the in-house deep learning-based abstaining classifier.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Geospatial characterization of low-temperature heating and cooling demand in residential, commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors for potential geothermal applications in the United States

Thermal demand for heating and cooling has been predominantly supplied by fossil fuel combustion in the United States, although low-carbon alternatives are extensively available including geothermal, solar thermal, and waste heat. Here, this study analyzed end-use energy consumption, fuel expenditure, and data center commissioned power data to geospatially characterize the U.S. low-temperature heating and cooling demand at the county level in residential, commercial, manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors and understand potential opportunities for geothermal applications. In the analysis, the regional-scale energy consumption data was incorporated with system efficiencies to address actual demand and was then disaggregated with weighting factors to the county level. The results indicated that total low-temperature heating and cooling demand is 16.7 EJ, combining heating demand of 10.8 EJ and cooling demand of 5.9 EJ. Overall, 59.9 % (10 EJ) of the low-temperature heating and cooling demand occurred in the residential sector. The heating and cooling demand visualized in maps represented that the geospatial distribution of heating and cooling demand in the residential and commercial sectors is governed by the number of housing units and climate zone designations, while heating and cooling demand in the manufacturing, agricultural, and data center sectors is dependent on the number and location of facilities. The results also demonstrated that geothermal heat pumps are broadly used in the residential and commercial sectors for heating and cooling in the U.S. Midwest, South, and Northeast regions but are limited in the West, implying great decarbonization potential in the future.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Community Solar Reaches Adopters Underserved by Rooftop Solar

Community solar, a business model where multiple customers buy output from shared solar systems, has expanded solar access among multifamily housing occupants, renters, and low-income households. Policies to enable community solar could be expanded and benefits of access augmented through targeted measures to support community solar adoption in underserved communities.

community solar↗

Hot springs viruses at Yellowstone National Park have ancient origins and are adapted to thermophilic hosts

Geothermal springs house unicellular red algae in the class Cyanidiophyceae that dominate the microbial biomass at these sites. Little is known about host-virus interactions in these environments. We analyzed the virus community associated with red algal mats in three neighboring habitats (creek, endolithic, soil) at Lemonade Creek, Yellowstone National Park (YNP), USA. We find that despite proximity, each habitat houses a unique collection of viruses, with the giant viruses, Megaviricetes, dominant in all three. The early branching phylogenetic position of genes encoded on metagenome assembled virus genomes (vMAGs) suggests that the YNP lineages are of ancient origin and not due to multiple invasions from mesophilic habitats. The existence of genomic footprints of adaptation to thermophily in the vMAGs is consistent with this idea. The Cyanidiophyceae at geothermal sites originated ca. 1.5 Bya and are therefore relevant to understanding biotic interactions on the early Earth.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Scanning SQUID microscopy in a cryogen-free dilution refrigerator

We report a scanning superconducting quantum interference device (SQUID) microscope in a cryogen-free dilution refrigerator with a base temperature at the sample stage of at least 30 mK. The microscope is rigidly mounted to the mixing chamber plate to optimize thermal anchoring of the sample. The microscope housing fits into the bore of a superconducting vector magnet, and our design accommodates a large number of wires connecting the sample and sensor. Through a combination of vibration isolation in the cryostat and a rigid microscope housing, we achieve relative vibrations between the SQUID and the sample that allow us to image with micrometer resolution over a 150 μm range while the sample stage temperature remains at base temperature. To demonstrate the capabilities of our system, we show images acquired simultaneously of the static magnetic field, magnetic susceptibility, and magnetic fields produced by a current above a superconducting micrometer-scale device.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Experimental studies of 1.5 – 1.6 μm high-power single-frequency semiconductor lasers

High-power semiconductor laser systems based on 1.5 – 1.6 μm single-frequency distributed feedback (DFB) lasers with a sidewall Bragg diffraction grating are developed and their current – voltage, light – current, and spectral characteristics are experimentally studied. The characteristics of conventional lasers with a Fabry – Perot cavity and DFB lasers fabricated from one and the same heterostructure are compared. At a pump current not exceeding 700 mA, a conventional laser with a cavity length of 1.6 mm and a mesa-stripe width of 3 μm emits a power no lower than 200 mW versus 150 mW of the DFB laser; both lasers are mounted in a housing 11 mm in diameter. The DFB laser mounted in a butterfly housing emits a power no lower than 100 mW at the exit of the single-mode cable at a pump current not exceeding 500 mA, which, at a 60 % coupling efficiency, corresponds to a power no lower than 165 mW; the side-mode suppression ratio in this case is no lower than 53 dB. It is shown that the wavelength deviation with changing pump current and temperature is almost an order of magnitude lower for the DFB laser than for the conventional laser. (paper)

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗