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Multidimensional perspectives of geo-epidemiology: from interdisciplinary learning and research to cost–benefit oriented decision-making

Research typically promotes two types of outcomes (inventions and discoveries), which induce a virtuous cycle: something suspected or desired (not previously demonstrated) may become known or feasible once a new tool or procedure is invented and, later, the use of this invention may discover new knowledge. Research also promotes the opposite sequence—from new knowledge to new inventions. This bidirectional process is observed in geo-referenced epidemiology—a field that relates to but may also differ from spatial epidemiology. Geo-epidemiology encompasses several theories and technologies that promote inter/transdisciplinary knowledge integration, education, and research in population health. Based on visual examples derived from geo-referenced studies on epidemics and epizootics, this report demonstrates that this field may extract more (geographically related) information than simple spatial analyses, which then supports more effective and/or less costly interventions. Actual (not simulated) bio-geo-temporal interactions (never captured before the emergence of technologies that analyze geo-referenced data, such as geographical information systems) can now address research questions that relate to several fields, such as Network Theory. Thus, a new opportunity arises before us, which exceeds research: it also demands knowledge integration across disciplines as well as novel educational programs which, to be biomedically and socially justified, should demonstrate cost-effectiveness. Grounded on many bio-temporal-georeferenced examples, this report reviews the literature that supports this hypothesis: novel educational programs that focus on geo-referenced epidemic data may help generate cost-effective policies that prevent or control disease dissemination.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

CERES ERBE-like Monthly Geographical Averages (ES-4) in HDF (CER_ES4_FM1+FM2_Edition2)

The ERBE-like Monthly Geographical Averages (ES-4) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The ES-4 is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. For each observed 2.5-degree spatial region, the daily average, the hourly average over the month, and the overall monthly average of shortwave and longwave fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) from the CERES ES-9 product are spatially nested up from 2.5-degree regions to 5- and 10-degree regions, to 2.5-, 5-, and 10-degree zonal averages, and to global monthly averages. For each nested area, the albedo and net flux are given. For each region, the daily average flux is estimated from an algorithm that uses the available hourly data, scene identification data, and diurnal models. This algorithm is 'like' the algorithm used for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The following CERES ES4 data sets are currently available: CER_ES4_FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1_Edition1 CER_ES4_PFM+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_ES4_TRMM-PFM_Edition2 CER_ES4_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_ES4_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_ES4_FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_ES4_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_ES4_FM1+FM2+FM3+FM4_Edition1 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_ES4_FM1+FM3_Edition2 CER_ES4_FM1+FM4_Edition2 CER_ES4_PFM+FM1_Edition2 CER_ES4_PFM+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES4_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_ES4_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_ES4_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_ES4_Terra-FM2_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2002-12-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Longitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=250 km - < 500 km or approximately 2.5 degrees - < 5.0 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=1 month; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Monthly - < Annual].

NET FLUX↗

Overview of TRMM Data Products and Services

November 27, 2007 marks the l0th anniversary of the launch of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. In anticipation of this anniversary, this paper will present an overview of the various TRMM data products currently available including the standard products, near real-time products, special products, and prototype products. It also will present an easy way to obtain these data. TRMM standard products have been publicly available since a few months after launch in November 1997. TRMM is currently on version 6 of the data product. Version 3 was the "at launch" version. The approval for each of these versions came through the Joint TRMM Science Team. Standard products are divided into 3 categories: single TRMM instrument, Visible Infrared Scanner (VIRS), TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI), and Precipitation Radar (PR); combined TRMM products (PR and TMI); finally TRMM and other satellites (combined, TMI, SSMI, AMSRE, AMSU). The single TRMM instrument products are processed through 4 levels: Level lA, science data packets processed into orbital files; Level 1B and lC, geolocated data at the instrument field of view; Level 2, geolocated, geophysical parameters at the instrument field of view; Level 3, time aggregated, gridded geophysical parameters. These products are available with 24 hours of production through an anonymous ftp account on trmmopen.gsfc.nasa.gov. The TRMM data system started to produce near real-time products at the end of 1999. They are currently available only through a controlled user account. However, approval to get access to this account can be obtained by sending a note to Erich.F.Stoclter@nasa.gov providing the reason for access and contact information including a valid email. TRMM is not restricting access but needs the information to determine the usefulness of near-real time data to the general science community including applications agencies. TRMM near real-time products are swath products up to Level 2 of processing. The oldest data in the swath is generally no older than 120 minutes when it becomes available to the community. The real-time products including a VIRS level lB, a TMI parameter reduced 1B, a TMI level 2 parameter reduced rain product, a PR level 2 surface rain product, and a PR level 2 rain product with 25 vertical levels. Currently, TRMM also produces a gridded 3 hour global merged product from several radiometers including AMSU and from radiometercalibrated IR data. The paper also describes several simple-format gridded text products available fiom the trmmopen.gsfc.nasa.gov anonymous fip server denoted as 3668 products. These products were produced to provide rain estimates from the three TRMM instruments in a universal format (ASCII) that requires very little data format knowledge. The paper goes on to describe prototype L1 radiometer products that apply an early intercalibration approach that provides a starting point to be used for Global Precipitation Measurement mission radiometer products. The paper also provides a brief overview of a precipitation features data product being produced using TRMM products including the Lighting Imaging Sensor (LIS) using an algorithm developed at the University of Utah and distributed by that organization. The paper concludes with some possible changes to products that are planned for the next reprocessing cycle and special services such as geographical subsetting available to the science community.

Stocker, Erich Franz↗

Long-term, large-scale experiment reveals the effects of seed limitation, climate, and anthropogenic disturbance on restoration of plant communities in a biodiversity hotspot

Ecological restoration is essential for maintaining biodiversity in the face of dynamic, global changes in climate, human land use, and disturbance regimes. Effective restoration requires understanding bottlenecks in plant community recovery that exist today, while recognizing that these bottlenecks may relate to complex histories of environmental change. Such understanding has been a challenge because few long-term, well-replicated experiments exist to decipher the demographic processes influencing recovery for numerous species against the backdrop of multiyear variation in climate and management. Here we address this challenge through a long-term and geographically expansive experiment in longleaf pine savannas, an imperiled ecosystem and biodiversity hotspot in the southeastern United States. Using 48 sites at three locations spanning 480 km, the 8-y experiment manipulated initial seed arrival for 24 herbaceous plant species and presence of competitors to evaluate the impacts of climate variability and management actions (e.g., prescribed burning) on plant establishment and persistence. Adding seeds increased plant establishment of many species. Cool and wet climatic conditions, low tree density, and reduced litter depth also promoted establishment. Once established, most species persisted for the duration of the 8-y experiment. Plant traits were most predictive when tightly coupled to the process of establishment. Our results illustrate how seed additions can restore plant diversity and how interannual climatic variation affects the dynamics of plant communities across a large region. The significant effects of temperature and precipitation inform how future climate may affect restoration and conservation via large-scale changes in the fundamental processes of establishment and persistence.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Smoothing Lexis diagrams using kernel functions: A contemporary approach

Lexis diagrams are rectangular arrays of event rates indexed by age and period. Analysis of Lexis diagrams is a cornerstone of cancer surveillance research. Typically, population-based descriptive studies analyze multiple Lexis diagrams defined by sex, tumor characteristics, race/ethnicity, geographic region, etc. Inevitably the amount of information per Lexis diminishes with increasing stratification. Several methods have been proposed to smooth observed Lexis diagrams up front to clarify salient patterns and improve summary estimates of averages, gradients, and trends. In this article, we develop a novel bivariate kernel-based smoother that incorporates two key innovations. First, for any given kernel, we calculate its singular values decomposition, and select an optimal truncation point—the number of leading singular vectors to retain—based on the bias-corrected Akaike information criterion. Second, we model-average over a panel of candidate kernels with diverse shapes and bandwidths. The truncated model averaging approach is fast, automatic, has excellent performance, and provides a variance-covariance matrix that takes model selection into account. We present an in-depth case study (invasive estrogen receptor-negative breast cancer incidence among non-Hispanic white women in the United States) and simulate operating characteristics for 20 representative cancers. The truncated model averaging approach consistently outperforms any fixed kernel. Our results support the routine use of the truncated model averaging approach in descriptive studies of cancer.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Assessing biogeographic survey gaps in bacterial diversity knowledge: A global synthesis of freshwaters

Freshwaters account for 0.8% of Earth's surface area, yet support >10% of known plant and animal species making them disproportionately biodiverse. Modern molecular techniques have begun to reveal microbial diversity, but application of these approaches to address global microbial biogeography is relatively unknown in freshwaters. Our aim was to identify gaps in microbial data coverage along climatic and landscape disturbance gradients and among terrestrial biomes and hydrographic regions for all freshwater ecosystems and three freshwater habitat types: lakes and reservoirs (lentic); streams and rivers (lotic); and wetlands. We reviewed literature on microbial diversity in freshwaters surveyed using 16S ribosomal RNA sequencing which identify microbial taxa. We georeferenced survey locations and used a geographic information system to identify and map gaps in survey coverage using open-source data for climate, landscape disturbance, terrestrial biomes, and freshwater ecoregions. In our study, we compiled 3,425 georeferenced survey locations reported from 963 studies. Streams were surveyed most frequently (60.8% of survey locations), followed by lakes (33.5%) and wetlands (5.6%). Surveys were concentrated in North America, central and western Europe, and Southeast Asia; 35% of freshwater ecoregions were surveyed at least once across freshwater habitat types, whereas 23%, 23%, and 12% were surveyed at least once for lentic, lotic, and wetland habitat types, respectively. The climatic gap analysis indicated coverage is high for temperate regions but lacking in the tropics and Arctic, particularly for wetland ecosystems. Our assessment revealed high climatic coverage of freshwater microbial diversity knowledge, but expansive ecoregional gaps attributable to biased sampling near research institutions in North America, western Europe, and China. Future surveys should target ecoregions in Africa, South America, Central Asia, Australia, and Antarctica. An essential next step will be to curate and disseminate sequencing efforts to facilitate the study of processes driving global diversity patterns.

16S rRNA↗

Progress Towards a Predictive Eagle Behavior and Risk Modeling Framework: Overview and Recent Validation Efforts

This presentation summarizes progress to date of the U.S. Department of Energy project, "Development of a computational framework for modeling golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) near wind farms," which focuses on stochastic behavioral modeling of soaring raptors across landscape, facility, and turbine spatiotemporal scales. This publicly available, open-source modeling framework includes behavioral models based on three different underlying principles: energy minimization at landscape scale, behavioral heuristics at landscape-facility scale, and data-driven behaviors at the facility-micro-scale. We will briefly overview the key advancements in the behavioral modeling state of the art, which leverages multiple high-resolution telemetry data sources combined with high-fidelity atmospheric flow modeling insights. We then present preliminary results from a validation study in Altamont, California. This new study involves a novel application of the Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS), in a new geographic locale, to understand facility scale eagle movement patterns over time scales representative of a wind project's lifetime. For this desktop analysis (that does not depend on any high-performance computing resources), SSRS simultaneously considers a variety of wind conditions and eagle approach vectors toward a project site of interest. This work demonstrates the integration of publicly available landscape-scale atmospheric datasets, our recently improved engineering updraft models (see presentation from Thedin et al.), and our energy minimization behavioral models within the SSRS framework. While we only present results from a single behavioral model, the integration of these three modeling components forms the foundation for our more sophisticated behavioral models (see presentations from Brandes et al., Sandhu et al.) that are under active development. Results are presented in the form of presence maps, which may be applied to estimate risk to wildlife, augment ground survey data, inform wind-plant operations, or incorporated into wind-plant designs.

agent-based modeling↗

A global assessment of policy tools to support climate adaptation

Governments, businesses, and civil society organizations have diverse policy tools to incentivize adaptation. Policy tools can shape the type and extent of adaptation, and therefore, function either as barriers or enablers for reducing risk and vulnerability. Using data from a systematic review of academic literature on global adaptation responses to climate change (n = 1549 peer-reviewed articles), we categorize the types of policy tools used to shape climate adaptation. We apply qualitative and quantitative analyses to assess the contexts where particular tools are used, along with equity implications for groups targeted by the tools, and the tools’ relationships with transformational adaptation indicators such as the depth, scope, and speed of adaptation. We find diverse types of tools documented across sectors and geographic regions. We also identify a mismatch between the tools that consider equity and those that yield more transformational adaptations. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation (thus transformational adaptation), while economic instruments, information provisioning, and networks are not; the latter tools, however, are more likely to target marginalized groups in their design and implementation. We identify multiple research gaps, including a need to assess instrument mixes rather than single tools and to assess adaptations that result from policy implementation. Key policy insights Information-based approaches, networks, and economic instruments are the most frequently documented adaptation policy tools worldwide. Direct regulations, plans, and capacity building are associated with higher depth and scope of adaptation, and thus more transformational adaptation. Capacity building, economic instruments, networks, and information provisioning approaches are more likely to target specific marginalized groups and thus equity challenges. There are many regions and sectors where certain tools are not widely documented (e.g. regulations and plans in Africa and Asia), representing a key research gap.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Water Observations of Flow/No-Flow for the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado (June-July 2025 and 2026)

This dataset provides multi-year, ground-truth visual observations of surface water flow/no-flow conditions within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado, collected during June and July of 2025 and 2026. In June and July 2025, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) and Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) campaign (further details are provided within the CHESS Project Description). We obtained 377 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. These ground-truth observations were collected to validate classification maps from remote sensing data and model results within the East-Taylor Watershed. In 2025, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using a field-based app for the CHESS Campaign (Zerion iForm). Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included information about visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, and beaver activity. For 2025 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2025_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2025_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg and .jpeg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2025_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2025_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). In June and July 2026, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function SFA project. We obtained 365 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. The 2026 observations focused on collecting repeat measurements at the 2025 flow/no-flow observation locations conducted as part of the CHESS campaign. These ground-truth observations were collected to understand differences in flow/no-flow in 2026, given the unprecedented 2026 drought in Colorado. In 2026, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) Survey123. Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included repeat information from the 2025 water observation effort, including visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, beaver activity, and a new metadata component of estimated stream depth (for select locations). For 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2026_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2026_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2026_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2026_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). For 2025 and 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a location metadata file (locations.csv); (6) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (7) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. 2026-09-02: This dataset was updated to include 2026 water observation measurements. The 2025 observation files were also updated to ensure a consistent file naming convention across water observation years.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns↗

Existing evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on ungulates in North America: a systematic map

Abstract Background Climate is an important driver of ungulate life-histories, population dynamics, and migratory behaviors. Climate conditions can directly impact ungulates via changes in the costs of thermoregulation and locomotion, or indirectly, via changes in habitat and forage availability, predation, and species interactions. Many studies have documented the effects of climate variability and climate change on North America’s ungulates, recording impacts to population demographics, physiology, foraging behavior, migratory patterns, and more. However, ungulate responses are not uniform and vary by species and geography. Here, we present a systematic map describing the abundance and distribution of evidence on the effects of climate variability and climate change on native ungulates in North America. Methods We searched for all evidence documenting or projecting how climate variability and climate change affect the 15 ungulate species native to the U.S., Canada, Mexico, and Greenland. We searched Web of Science, Scopus, and the websites of 62 wildlife management agencies to identify relevant academic and grey literature. We screened English-language documents for inclusion at both the title and abstract and full-text levels. Data from all articles that passed full-text review were extracted and coded in a database. We identified knowledge clusters and gaps related to the species, locations, climate variables, and outcome variables measured in the literature. Review findings We identified a total of 674 relevant articles published from 1947 until September 2020. Caribou ( Rangifer tarandus ), elk ( Cervus canadensis ), and white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) were the most frequently studied species. Geographically, more research has been conducted in the western U.S. and western Canada, though a notable concentration of research is also located in the Great Lakes region. Nearly 75% more articles examined the effects of precipitation on ungulates compared to temperature, with variables related to snow being the most commonly measured climate variables. Most studies examined the effects of climate on ungulate population demographics, habitat and forage, and physiology and condition, with far fewer examining the effects on disturbances, migratory behavior, and seasonal range and corridor habitat. Conclusions The effects of climate change, and its interactions with stressors such as land-use change, predation, and disease, is of increasing concern to wildlife managers. With its broad scope, this systematic map can help ungulate managers identify relevant climate impacts and prepare for future changes to the populations they manage. Decisions regarding population control measures, supplemental feeding, translocation, and the application of habitat treatments are just some of the management decisions that can be informed by an improved understanding of climate impacts. This systematic map also identified several gaps in the literature that would benefit from additional research, including climate effects on ungulate migratory patterns, on species that are relatively understudied yet known to be sensitive to changes in climate, such as pronghorn ( Antilocapra americana ) and mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ), and on ungulates in the eastern U.S. and Mexico.

Malpeli, Katherine C. (ORCID:000000030780918X)↗

Acquisition of Rickettsia rickettsii (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae) by Haemaphysalis longicornis (Acari: Ixodidae) through co-feeding with infected Dermacentor variabilis (Acari: Ixodidae) in the laboratory

Abstract Haemaphysalis longicornis (Neumann) is an invasive ixodid tick originating from eastern Asia which recently has become established in the United States. In its native range, this tick can transmit several pathogens to animals and humans, but little is known about its ability to acquire and transmit pathogens native to the United States. Geographic overlap with ticks such as Dermacentor variabilis (Say), a known vector of Rickettsia rickettsii, makes investigation into the interactions between H. longicornis and D. variabilis of interest to the public health community. Previous studies have shown that H. longicornis can serve as a competent vector of R. rickettsii under laboratory settings, but there is little information on its ability to acquire this pathogen via other biologically relevant routes, such as co-feeding. Here, we assess the ability of H. longicornis nymphs to acquire R. rickettsii through co-feeding with infected D. variabilis adults on a vertebrate animal model under laboratory conditions. The median infection prevalence in engorged H. longicornis nymphs across 8 cohorts was 0% with an interquartile range (IQR) of 4.13%. Following transstadial transmission, the median infection prevalence in flat females was 0.7% (IQR = 2.4%). Our results show that co-feeding transmission occurs at low levels in the laboratory between these 2 species. However, based on the relatively low transmission rates, this may not be a likely mechanism of R. rickettsii introduction to H. longicornis.

Entomology↗

Spatio–Temporal Coarse–Graining Decomposition of the Global Ocean Geostrophic Kinetic Energy

We expand on a recent determination of the first global energy spectrum of the ocean’s surface geostrophic circulation using a coarse-graining (CG) method. We compare spectra from CG to those from spherical harmonics by treating land in a manner consistent with the boundary conditions. While the two methods yield qualitatively consistent domain-averaged results, spherical harmonics spectra are too noisy at gyre-scales (> 1000 km). More importantly, spherical harmonics are inherently global and cannot provide local information connecting scales with currents geographically. CG shows that the extra-tropics mesoscales (100–500 km) have a root-mean-square (rms) velocity of ~15 cm/s, which increases to ~30–40 cm/s locally in the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio and to ~16–28 cm/s in the ACC. There is notable hemispheric asymmetry in mesoscale energy-per-area, which is higher in the north due to continental boundaries. We estimate that ≈25–50% of total geostrophic energy is at scales smaller than 100 km, and is un(der)-resolved by pre-SWOT satellite products. Spectra of the time-mean circulation show that most of its energy (up to 70%) resides in stationary eddies with characteristic scales smaller than (< 500 km). This highlights the preponderance of ‘standing’ small-scale structures in the global ocean due to the temporally coherent forcing by boundaries. By coarse-graining in space and time, we compute the first spatio-temporal global spectrum of geostrophic circulation from AVISO and NEMO. These spectra show that every length-scale evolves over a wide range of time-scales with a consistent peak at ≈200 km and ≈2–3 weeks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Building a framework to genetically characterize “feather spots” and understand demographic impacts of solar energy sites on migratory bird populations

The lack of data on the impact of utility-scale solar facilities on avian species and populations adds to the cost of siting and operation. As much as 32 percent of the avian biological material (feathers and carcasses) recovered from solar facilities remain unidentified, because they often take the form of “feather spots”. Feather spots are remains of impacted animals that can be separated into two broad categories: 1) those remains that may be visually identified to a species, or 2) those that cannot be visually identified to a species due to degradation from the environment and/or scavenger activity (listed as “unknown”). Even when feather spots can be identified to species, they cannot be visually assigned to particular breeding populations. In some cases, it is unknown whether multiple feather spots represent single or multiple individuals. This project’s objectives were to: 1. Use a developed, genetic-based technique to identify and determine the species, population of origin, and number of individuals found in feather spots recovered from solar facilities. 2. Implement collected data and resulting analyses to develop a publicly accessible web-based decision-making tool that can be used by the solar industry, regulators and other stakeholders to inform siting, mitigation, and conservation management efforts. 3. Establish a not-for-profit fee-for-service center at UCLA to ensure collection and identification of feather spots continue after the project period of performance. During the Project Period, we proposed to establish a pipeline for collecting, transporting, and storing of avian biological material collected at solar facilities and the collection and identification of feather spots to species and individual. We proposed the development of a genetic-based framework that would recover viable DNA from feather spots, amplify this DNA (i.e., make millions of copies of the original DNA), and use it to match the resulting sequences to a national database of known species of birds. The result would be the identification of feathers spots that were previously unidentified, and the incorporation of these samples into a larger database that included all samples recovered from solar facilities. The resulting report (below) details the result of this work and its alignment with proposed activities. We proposed the use of the data collected to assess the comparative risk to specific species or populations of species from solar facilities. For some species, we have already identified genomic markers of specific breeding populations and developed “genoscapes,” maps of unique genetic variation across the full breeding range of a species. We used these (previously and newly developed) genoscapes to probabilistically link a feather spot to the specific breeding populations from which it originated (assignment probabilities range from 75%-100% depending on species and population groups). For those species without genoscapes, we developed a vulnerability and susceptibility estimate that determines the relative local and regional risk to populations that are in geographic proximity to solar facilities, using citizen science data (Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) and eBird). These two feather spot processing pipelines (see Figure 1 below) provide quantitative estimates as to the numbers of individuals from a given population of origin that are affected by solar facilities, and ultimately can reduce costs to the consumer by reducing the industry costs associated with mitigation and siting strategies for future solar energy development.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Fractal Characterization of Multitemporal Scaled Remote Sensing Data

Scale is an "innate" concept in geographic information systems. It is recognized as something that is intrinsic to the ingestion, storage, manipulation, analysis, modeling, and output of space and time data within a GIS purview, yet the relative meaning and ramifications of scaling spatial and temporal data from this perspective remain enigmatic. As GISs become more sophisticated as a product of more robust software and more powerful computer systems, there is an urgent need to examine the issue of scale, and its relationship to the whole body of spatiotemporal data, as imparted in GISS. Scale is fundamental to the characterization of geo-spatial data as represented in GISS, but we have relatively little insight on the effects of, or how to measure the effects of, scale in representing multiscaled data; i.e., data that are acquired in different formats (e.g., map, digital) and exist in varying spatial, temporal, and in the case of remote sensing data, radiometric, configurations. This is particularly true in the emerging era of Integrated GISs (IGIS), wherein spatial data in a variety of formats (e.g., raster, vector) are combined with multiscaled remote sensing data, capable of performing highly sophisticated space-time data analyses and modeling. Moreover, the complexities associated with the integration of multiscaled data sets in a multitude of formats are exacerbated by the confusion of what the term "scale" is from a multidisciplinary perspective; i.e., "scale" takes on significantly different meanings depending upon one's disciplinary background and spatial perspective which can lead to substantive confusion in the input, manipulation, analyses, and output of IGISs (Quattrochi, 1993). Hence, we must begin to look at the universality of scale and begin to develop the theory, methods, and techniques necessary to advance knowledge on the "Science of Scale" across a wide number of spatial disciplines that use GISs.

Quattrochi, Dale A.↗

CERES ERBE-like Monthly Regional Averages (ES-9) in HDF (CER_ES9_FM1+FM4_Edition2)

The ERBE-like Monthly Regional Averages (ES-9) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The ES-9 is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous shortwave and longwave fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) from the CERES ES-8 product for a month are sorted by 2.5-degree spatial regions, by day number, and by the local hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-day-hour bin is determined and recorded on the ES-9 along with other flux statistics and scene information. For each region, the daily average flux is estimated from an algorithm that uses the available hourly data, scene identification data, and diurnal models. This algorithm is 'like' the algorithm used for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The ES-9 also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average for each region. These average fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. The following CERES ES9 data sets are currently available: CER_ES9_FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1_Edition2 CER_ES9_PFM+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_ES9_TRMM-PFM_Edition2 CER_ES9_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_ES9_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_ES9_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_ES9_FM1+FM2+FM3+FM4_Edition1 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_ES9_FM1+FM3_Edition2 CER_ES9_FM1+FM4_Edition2 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_ES9_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_ES9_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_ES9_Terra-FM2_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2005-03-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Longitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=250 km - < 500 km or approximately 2.5 degrees - < 5.0 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=hourly, daily, monthly; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily, Daily - < Weekly, Monthly - < Annual].

SOLAR INCIDENCE↗

A multi-criteria CCUS screening evaluation of the Gulf of Mexico, USA

Continued research into reservoir characterization along with offshore carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) transportation and infrastructure assets is needed to facilitate development of safe and successful carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) projects. This paper outlines a multi-criteria evaluation methodology that incorporates disparate sets of quantitative, spatially variable data into a decision-making framework for screening the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) outer continental shelf (OCS) for potentially viable CO 2 storage and enhanced oil recovery (EOR) sites. Criteria categories include favorable geologic characteristics, logistics, and potential risks. Data compiled for 14 criteria from several publicly available geographic information system (GIS) layers was aggregated over 2559 spatially balanced points across the study area using the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)-developed Cumulative Spatial Impact Layers™ (CSIL) GIS tool. Criteria are weighted by qualitative expert opinion relative to their perceived importance to given scenarios— the output of combined criteria values and weights enables regional CO 2 storage suitability differentiation. The methodology considers both technical and non-technical factors impacting CCUS decision-making. The flexible methodology enables a systematic approach to regional ranking at high spatial resolution over a large study domain. Additionally, the framework enables high-grading of priority sites that warrant further characterization and follow-on analysis. Areas along the Louisiana coast and Mississippi River Delta consistently rank high for all scenarios largely a result of the favorable geology with the potential for stacked storage, as well as the density of existing pipelines and platforms, and proximity to several onshore CO 2 sources. High-graded regions for the CO 2 EOR-related scenarios are typically located further offshore towards the middle and edge of the OCS compared to higher priority regions for the geologic storage scenarios which fall closer to the Louisiana coastline.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predicting wind-driven spatial deposition through simulated color images using deep autoencoders

Abstract For centuries, scientists have observed nature to understand the laws that govern the physical world. The traditional process of turning observations into physical understanding is slow. Imperfect models are constructed and tested to explain relationships in data. Powerful new algorithms can enable computers to learn physics by observing images and videos. Inspired by this idea, instead of training machine learning models using physical quantities, we used images, that is, pixel information. For this work, and as a proof of concept, the physics of interest are wind-driven spatial patterns. These phenomena include features in Aeolian dunes and volcanic ash deposition, wildfire smoke, and air pollution plumes. We use computer model simulations of spatial deposition patterns to approximate images from a hypothetical imaging device whose outputs are red, green, and blue (RGB) color images with channel values ranging from 0 to 255. In this paper, we explore deep convolutional neural network-based autoencoders to exploit relationships in wind-driven spatial patterns, which commonly occur in geosciences, and reduce their dimensionality. Reducing the data dimension size with an encoder enables training deep, fully connected neural network models linking geographic and meteorological scalar input quantities to the encoded space. Once this is achieved, full spatial patterns are reconstructed using the decoder. We demonstrate this approach on images of spatial deposition from a pollution source, where the encoder compresses the dimensionality to 0.02% of the original size, and the full predictive model performance on test data achieves a normalized root mean squared error of 8%, a figure of merit in space of 94% and a precision-recall area under the curve of 0.93.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock

The United States is embarking on an ambitious transition to a 100% clean energy economy by 2050, which will require improving the flexibility of electric grids. One way to achieve grid flexibility is to shed or shift demand to align with changing grid needs. To facilitate this, it is critical to understand how and when energy is used. High quality end-use load profiles (EULPs) provide this information, and can help cities, states, and utilities understand the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and distributed energy resources. Publicly available EULPs have traditionally had limited application because of age and incomplete geographic representation. To help fill this gap, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) funded a three-year project, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock, that culminated in this publicly available dataset of calibrated and validated 15-minute resolution load profiles for all major residential and commercial building types and end uses, across all climate regions in the United States. These EULPs were created by calibrating the ResStock and ComStock physics-based building stock models using many different measured datasets, as described in the "Technical Report Documenting Methodology" linked in the submission.

Array↗