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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2022

Clean Air Policies Are Key for Successfully Mitigating Arctic Warming

A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995–2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

DOE OSTI2023

US Department of Energy Better Plants Program’s Approach to Manufacturing Workforce Development

Multiple studies suggest that by 2030, millions of jobs may go unfilled because of a significant skills gap between the current manufacturing workforce and the workforce needed to support the shift toward advanced and sustainable manufacturing. According to US manufacturers, finding the right talent is more difficult now than in previous years. Developing a well-trained workforce will play a critical role in transforming the manufacturing sector into a net-zero contributor of greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. To help reduce energy, water, waste, and greenhouse gas emissions as well as build a strong, sustainable manufacturing workforce, the US Department of Energy created the voluntary Better Plants program in 2011. This study discusses the program’s various workforce development activities, including in-plant trainings, virtual in-plant trainings, and in-person bootcamps. The target audiences, training objectives, and topics designed to upskill workers for a low-carbon manufacturing future are described. Feedback that was collected (e.g., new training topics, certifications, hands-on activities) while working with more than 270 US manufacturers for the past 12 years on workforce development are discussed. Finally, some strategies are proposed to address the feedback.

Guo, Wei↗

NASA NTRS2016

Climate Change Adaptation Activities at the NASA John F. Kennedy Space Center, FL., USA

In 2010, the Office of Strategic Infrastructure and Earth Sciences established the Climate Adaptation Science Investigators (CASI) program to integrate climate change forecasts and knowledge into sustainable management of infrastructure and operations needed for the NASA mission. NASA operates 10 field centers valued at $32 billion dollars, occupies 191,000 acres and employs 58,000 people. CASI climate change and sea-level rise forecasts focus on the 2050 and 2080 time periods. At the 140,000 acre Kennedy Space Center (KSC) data are used to simulate impacts on infrastructure, operations, and unique natural resources. KSC launch and processing facilities represent a valued national asset located in an area with high biodiversity including 33 species of special management concern. Numerical and advanced Bayesian and Monte Carlo statistical modeling is being conducted using LiDAR digital elevation models coupled with relevant GIS layers to assess potential future conditions. Results are provided to the Environmental Management Branch, Master Planning, Construction of Facilities, Engineering Construction Innovation Committee and our regional partners to support Spaceport development, management, and adaptation planning and design. Potential impacts to natural resources include conversion of 50% of the Center to open water, elevation of the surficial aquifer, alterations of rainfall and evapotranspiration patterns, conversion of salt marsh to mangrove forest, reductions in distribution and extent of upland habitats, overwash of the barrier island dune system, increases in heat stress days, and releases of chemicals from legacy contamination sites. CASI has proven successful in bringing climate change planning to KSC including recognition of the need to increase resiliency and development of a green managed shoreline retreat approach to maintain coastal ecosystem services while maximizing life expectancy of Center launch and payload processing resources.

plant communities↗

DOE OSTI2026

The past, present, and future of peaking thermal power plants in the United States

Today's power systems rely on "peaker plants" to reliably serve load during peak demand periods. In this study we consider the present competitiveness of different peaking options, how much and what kinds of plants have provided U.S. peaking capacity, and potential future peaking fleet compositions. We explore how capital intensity impacts the breakeven capacity factor between two potential resources: combustion turbines (CTs) and combined cycle plants (CCs). CTs outcompete CCs below 12%-17% annual capacity factor at today's prices, but can shift with changes to fuel or start costs. Historically, gas CTs and petroleum steam plants most closely fit the role of peakers. Peaking capacity could grow from approximately 280 GW today to 460-770 GW in 2050 composed of a wider range of resources. We conclude by discussing implications of this shift, with a focus on the potential planning considerations for shifting to a greater utilization of CCs for peaking needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2020

Hybrid Electric MC-12 Ground Testing Plan Chapter

In the commercial aviation world, hybrid/electric propulsion is a promising technology for fuel, emissions, and noise reduction in support of the challenging goals established by 2050 EU Flightpath/SRIA, NASA ARMD Strategic Implementation Plan, and the US Air Force ATTAM programs. Ongoing results indicate operational benefits are possible in those three technical areas. Considering military applications, hybrid/electric propulsion may yield further significant improvements by enabling new, unorthodox mission capabilities. Potential benefits are expected in the areas of vehicle signature reduction (lower noise, lower exhaust signature), usage in enhanced flight environments, minimized human-in-the-loop workload by offering a platform compatible with future goals of autonomous operations facilitation, maintenance cost reductions, and performance burst/dash energy. Additional synergies are likely when used in conjunction with energy weapons. Some potential areas of mutual interest could include, dusty operations capability, remote supply capability, extended surveillance, dispatch able power, fuel-flexible vehicles, and autonomous rescue equipment. Many of the key technologies that have been demonstrated in ground operation must now be qualified for altitude conditions. We expect to have many flight qualified powertrain systems over the next decade for military planners to choose from for new future battlefield capability. This requires new flight-weight and flight-efficient powertrain components, fault tolerant power management, and electromagnetic interference mitigation technologies. Moreover, initial studies indicate some combination of ambient and cryogenic thermal management and relatively high bus voltages when compared to state of practice will be required to achieve a net system benefit. Developing all these powertrain technologies within a realistic aircraft architectural geometry and under realistic operational conditions requires a unique electric aircraft test bed. The MC-12 surveillance aircraft is an ideal military aircraft for demonstrating some of the benefits of incorporating hybrid electric propulsion. This report details an approach for full-scale ground-based altitude testing the hybrid electric MC-12 powertrain through a full flight profile.

military electric aircraft propulsion↗

DOE OSTI2024

Modeling hydrogen markets: Energy system model development status and decarbonization scenario results

Hydrogen can be used as an energy carrier and chemical feedstock to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially in difficult-to-decarbonize markets such as medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, aviation and maritime, iron and steel, and the production of fuels and chemicals. Significant literature has been accumulated on engineering-based assessments of various hydrogen technologies, and real-world projects are validating technology performance at larger scales and for low-carbon supply chains. While energy system models continue to be updated to track this progress, many are currently limited in their representation of hydrogen, and as a group they tend to generate highly variable results under decarbonization constraints. Here, the present work provides insights into the development status and decarbonization scenario results of 15 energy system models participating in study 37 of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF37), focusing on the U.S. energy system. The models and scenario results vary widely in multiple respects: hydrogen technology representation, scope and type of hydrogen end-use markets, relative optimism of hydrogen technology input assumptions, and market uptake results reported for 2050 under various decarbonization assumptions. Most models report hydrogen market uptake increasing with decarbonization constraints, though some models report high carbon prices being required to achieve these increases and some find hydrogen does not compete well when assuming optimistic assumptions for all advanced decarbonization technologies. Across various scenarios, hydrogen market success tends to have an inverse relationship to success with direct air capture (DAC) and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies. While most model-scenario combinations predict modest hydrogen uptake by 2050 – <10 million metric tons (MMT) – aggregating the top 10 % of market uptake results across sectors suggests an upper range demand potential of 42–223 MMT. The high degree of variability across both modeling methods and market uptake results suggests that increased harmonization of both input assumptions and subsector competition scope would lead to more consistent results across energy system models. The wide variability in results indicates strongly divergent conclusions on the role of hydrogen in a decarbonized energy future.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRS2024

Applications of Remote Sensing for Land Use Planning Scenarios with Suitability Analysis

In regions undergoing rapid urbanization, such as West Africa, land use planning (LUP) is vital to accommodate growing population and manage natural resources. Suitability analysis modeling is a widely used tool in LUP to determine the extent to which a land area is suitable for a designated purpose, but there is a gap in the integration of remote sensing time series data into land use decisions. The goal of this study was to incorporate remote sensing time series information with suitability analyses to inform LUP decisions in urban areas. In the study area of Kumasi, Ghana, land cover trends and land surface temperature (LST) from 2000 to 2019 were used to understand climate change trends. Suitability analyses determined the fitness of land areas for predetermined uses. These background processes informed a genetic algorithm to project plausible futures for three land use scenarios. One scenario represented current land use planning practices for addressing population growth, another scenario prioritized minimizing climate change impacts while also accommodating population growth, and the final scenario focused on both of these climate and population goals in addition to high density urban development. Each of these scenarios was successful in achieving population accommodation and respective climate change mitigation goals. The results for these scenarios provide insight into plausible land use distributions in 2050 based on different planning approaches. The genetic algorithm was able to effectively develop results for each scenario through the integration of remotely sensed trends and suitability models, providing a novel approach to land use decision-making.

remote sensing time series↗

DOE OSTI2023

Projected increases in wildfires may challenge regulatory curtailment of PM 2.5 over the eastern US by 2050

Anthropogenic contribution to the overall fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) concentrations has been declining sharply in North America. In contrast, a steep rise in wildfire-induced air pollution events with recent warming is evident in the region. Here, based on coupled fire–climate–ecosystem model simulations, summertime wildfire-induced PM 2.5 concentrations are projected to nearly double in North America by the mid-21st century compared to the present. More strikingly, the projected enhancement in fire-induced PM 2.5 (~1–2 µg m -3 ) and its contribution (~15 %–20 %) to the total PM 2.5 are distinctively significant in the eastern US. This can be attributed to downwind transport of smoke from future enhancement of wildfires in North America to the eastern US and associated positive climatic feedback on PM 2.5 , i.e., perturbations in circulation, atmospheric stability, and precipitation. Therefore, the anticipated reductions in PM 2.5 from regulatory controls on anthropogenic emissions could be significantly compromised in the future in the densely populated eastern US.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2022

Premature Deaths in Africa Due to Particulate Matter Under High and Low Warming Scenarios

Sustainable development and climate change mitigation can provide enormous public health benefits via improved air quality, especially in polluted areas. We use the latest state-of-the-art composition-climate model simulations to contrast human exposure to fine particulate matter in Africa under a “baseline” scenario with high material consumption, population growth, and warming to that projected under a sustainability scenario with lower consumption, population growth, and warming. Evaluating the mortality impacts of these exposures, we find that under the low warming scenario annual premature deaths due to PM2.5 are reduced by roughly 515,000 by 2050 relative to the high warming scenario (100,000, 175,000, 55,000, 140,000, and 45,000 in Northern, West, Central, East, and Southern Africa, respectively). This reduction rises to ∼800,000 by the 2090s, though by that time much of the difference is attributable to the projected differences in population. By contrast, during the first half of the century benefits are driven predominantly by emissions changes. Depending on the region, we find large intermodel spreads of ∼25%–50% in projected future exposures owing to different physics across the ensemble of 6 global models. The spread of projected deaths attributable to exposure to fine particulate matter, including uncertainty in the exposure-response function, are reduced in every region to ∼20%–35% by the non-linear exposure-response function. Differences between the scenarios have an even narrower spread of ∼5%–25% and are highly statistically significant in all regions for all models. These results provide valuable information for policy-makers to consider when working toward climate change mitigation and sustainable development goals.

PM2.5↗

DOE OSTI2023

Biofuel Air Emissions Analysis

U.S. has goals to produce 3 billion gallons of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually by 2030, increasing to 35 billion gallons by 2050 to decarbonize the aviation sector. Meeting these production targets will require large number of biorefineries to be set up. However, ability to comply with federal air quality standards is prerequisite to being issued a construction permit. Negotiating the permitting process for a new biorefinery can be quite onerous and cost the investors significant time and money. Although there can be numerous reasons for delayed biorefinery construction, air permitting is fraught with pitfalls because the permitting process relies on precedence, which the future SAF biorefineries lack. NREL's Biofuel Air Emissions Analysis project is unique and innovative in terms of the tools, approaches, and analyses provided. NREL is the only national laboratory that is actively working at the intersection of Federal air quality regulations, emissions and air quality analysis across the supply chain, and process design. This project is focused on providing much needed data and analyses that address biorefinery air permitting. This project develops models and quantitative analyses and measures progress towards meeting air quality regulatory requirements. These models and methods are applied to analyze air permitting related to wastewater sludge to biofuel conversion pathways using hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL), impacts of HTL pathway on local and regional air quality including an assessment of health and equity impacts. In addition to filling research gaps, this project also disseminates the findings to the relevant stakeholders at BETO, other national labs, and regulatory agencies.

air quality↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electrification of industrial boilers in the USA: potentials, challenges, and policy implications

Decarbonization of the industrial heat demand through electrification could contribute significantly to climate change mitigation efforts. In the US industry, thermal processes accounted for 75% of the total final energy demand in 2018, of which 17% is consumed by conventional industrial boilers (excluding cogeneration) for steam generation. Electric boilers have a small share in the US industrial steam generation due to several techno-economic reasons. Here, this study employs a bottom-up approach to investigate the sector-level and state-level techno-enviro-economic potentials of deploying electric boilers in the US industry in different timeframes. The results show that the technical potential energy and CO 2 savings by electrifying industrial boilers are 595 PJ and 200 MtCO 2 per year in 2050, respectively; however, these incur additional costs in each sector. Although there may be individual cost-effective opportunities for electrifying boilers in specific industrial sites, the overall costs are high in all industrial sectors and states due to the large disparity between electricity and combustion fuel prices. To overcome the highlighted techno-economic barriers, a comprehensive action plan for different stakeholders is also formulated. This study provides novel insights that should inform policymakers’ and executives’ decisions about the electrification of the current and future US industrial boiler systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Variable renewable energy deployment in low-emission scenarios: The role of technology cost and value

While rapid deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) technologies, namely wind and solar PV, is often projected in 2C pathways generated by integrated assessment models, there is a wide range in projected VRE deployment by mid-century. Such differences could be the result of differences in assumptions about future technology costs and/or differences in model approaches for capturing other aspects of technology competitiveness. Here we introduce a consistent competitiveness metric, profitability-adjusted levelized cost of electricity (or PLCOE), to an integrated assessment model (EPPA) to evaluate the representation of technology competition, including VRE, in low-emission scenarios. We show that representing the value of technology (alongside cost) may significantly impact VRE deployment relative to scenarios without such an adjustment. In addition, we show that varying VRE costs by about 35% in 2050 results in differences in VRE deployment that span much of the range in outcomes (over the same period) observed in likely 2C scenarios assessed by the IPCC, suggesting that both cost and value are key drivers of VRE deployment in such scenarios. Given the central role that VRE technologies play in the electricity mix across most scenarios, we also find that alternative cost assumptions for VRE technologies can lead to changes in electricity prices, the associated demand for electricity, and total final and primary energy consumption. However, the demand for fuels other than electricity is relatively insensitive to VRE assumptions in the 2C scenarios considered here.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Powertrain Performance and Total Cost of Ownership Analysis for Class 8 Yard Tractors and Refuse Trucks

Advanced powertrain technologies, specifically fuel cell electric powertrains, have gained attention as viable alternatives for medium- and heavy-duty (M/HD) vehicles. However, it is unclear how these alternative powertrain vehicles stack up against their diesel counterparts in terms of performance and total cost of ownership (TCO). Furthermore, there are vehicle segments within the M/HD sector that have remained unstudied for fuel cell electric applications. This analysis aims to provide a comparative scoping-level TCO and performance analysis for two heavy-duty vocation vehicles (Class 8 U.S. port-side yard tractor and Class 8 U.S.-based refuse truck) for both conventional diesel and heavy-duty fuel cell electric (HDFC) powertrains. The refuse truck analysis also considered compressed natural gas powertrains (CNG) for comparison. The analysis includes seven timeframes (2020, 2025, 2030, 2035, 2040, 2045, and 2050) for comparison. This simplified TCO analysis includes only direct costs (fuel price, glider purchase price, and operating & maintenance costs) and excludes any associated indirect cost (e.g., dwell time costs and other opportunity based costs). Representative drive cycles for each vehicle were based on on-board GPS logged data and chosen by the analysis team to represent average, non-extreme driving conditions. At the time the analysis was performed, the Inflation Reduction Act was not in effect and therefore any potential subsidies and future cost reductions enacted under the Inflation Reduction Act were not included. Based on the operational setpoints used in this analysis, HDFC powertrains for both yard tractors and refuse trucks have the potential to achieve TCO advantages over conventional diesel powertrains (and CNG for refuse truck applications) in the near- to mid-term future while meeting the necessary duty cycle performance requirements. Yard tractors and refuse trucks spend a significant amount of time operating at low speeds, with long durations of idling, and experience numerous start/stop occurrences. These operational characteristics favor fuel cell performance as fuel cells operate with higher efficiencies at lower percentages of total power output. Conversely, conventional diesel and CNG engines are most efficient at higher percentages of total power output. This helps HDFC powered yard tractors and refuse trucks realize improved fuel economy when compared to their diesel counterparts, which helps reduce total fuel costs and therefore, total TCO. The analysis demonstrates that fuel prices play a significant role in determining TCO for each vehicle and should remain an R&D focus area. Overall, under the analysis' specified conditions, HDFC yard tractors have the potential to achieve cost parity with diesel yard tractors as early as 2025. For refuse trucks, HDFC refuse trucks have the potential to achieve cost parity with diesel and CNG refuse trucks in 2030 and 2040, respectively.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

NASA NTRS2017

Developing Science Operations Concepts for the Future of Planetary Surface Exploration

Through fly-by, orbiter, rover, and even crewed missions, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has been extremely successful in exploring planetary bodies throughout our Solar System. The focus on increasingly complex Mars orbiter and rover missions has helped us understand how Mars has evolved over time and whether life has ever existed on the red planet. However, large strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) still exist in our understanding of the evolution of the Solar System (e.g. the Lunar Exploration Analysis Group, Small Bodies Analysis Group, and Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group). Sending humans to these bodies is a critical part of addressing these SKGs in order to transition to a new era of planetary exploration by 2050.

Young, K. E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Synergies and trade-offs between storage, transmission, and sector coupling in high renewable energy systems

Energy storage, transmission, and sector coupling are some prominent flexibility solutions to support variable renewable energy (VRE) integration. However, investment cost uncertainties and public acceptance could hamper the deployment of these flexibility solutions. This raises questions about the development and cost-effectiveness of future energy systems, especially on how the dependence on local and cross-border solutions of flexibility would evolve if the uptake of these solutions is restricted. In this context, this paper identifies the synergies among flexibility options under restrictions on transmission expansion or increased costs of energy storage. It contributes to determining whether investments in energy storage and/or transmission expansion offer the least-cost transition and investigates the impact of sector coupling on these solutions. A long-term energy system planning and optimisation model towards 2050 is developed using the open-source energy system optimisation tool Balmorel, and a case study of the countries surrounding the Baltic Sea and the North Sea is established. Five cases with restrictions imposed on transmission expansion and higher energy storage technology costs are analysed at different levels of sector coupling. The results highlight the importance of transmission expansion at all levels of sector coupling. As the level of sector coupling increases, uncertainties around the cost of energy storage drive the least-cost pathways. Optimal investment solutions are found to have a mix of transmission and energy storage in capacity expansion at all levels of sector coupling.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Role of Renewable Energy, Storage, and Demand Response in Karnataka's Power Sector Future

Karnataka ranks fourth among Indian states in installed capacity of renewable energy, which accounts for over 50% of its resource mix. The state is positioned to play a leading role in India's energy transition and contribute to meeting national targets for renewable energy thanks, in part, to ambitious state goals to develop Karnataka's abundant zero carbon energy resources and plans to phase out new investments in thermal plants. Power system stakeholders in Karnataka are faced with the challenge of planning a generation portfolio that accounts for the variability of wind and solar resources, meets increasing and shifting electricity demand, and satisfies operational and reliability requirements. The objective of this study is to evaluate least-cost pathways for Karnataka's electric power system through 2050. The capacity expansion model developed for this study identifies power system investment and operational decisions for every year (2020-2050) for all of India, with detailed representation of the state of Karnataka. The study led to five high-level results and provides a framework for recurring planning studies to meet changing system conditions and needs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dynamic Life Cycle Assessment for Evaluating the Global Warming Potential of Geothermal Energy Production Using Inactive Oil and Gas Wells for District Heating in Tuttle, Oklahoma

Repurposing abandoned oil and gas infrastructure for geothermal energy production has great potential to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This study quantified the life cycle global warming potential of geothermal energy production using four inactive oil and gas wells repurposed for district heating in Tuttle, Oklahoma. A cradle-to-grave prospective life cycle assessment was performed to compare GHG emissions between the geothermal district heating system and conventional natural gas-fired heating system from 2020 to 2050. For initial implementation of the geothermal system, we investigated two approaches: 1) repurposing abandoned infrastructure from a nearby oil and gas well site, and 2) production and injection well drillings including new construction of a central heat exchange station. Environmental impacts from the geothermal system were estimated for five scenarios where a natural gas peaking boiler is incorporated to supply peak heat demand. The prospective results indicated that cumulative reduction in GHG emissions from transitioning to the geothermal district heating system increase over time as a function of future renewable resource penetration and technological advancements within electricity, fuel, and steel production. Over 30 years, the global warming potential associated with the district heating demand will have been reduced by up to 24 % with the repurposed system. These results imply that repurposing existing oil and gas infrastructure for geothermal energy systems of district heating will bring future climate benefits.

abandoned oil and gas wells↗

DOE OSTI2023

Highly Resolved Projections of Passenger Electric Vehicle Charging Loads for the Contiguous United States: Results From and Methods Behind Bottom-Up Simulations of County-Specific Household Electric Vehicle Charging Load (Hourly 8760) Profiles Projected Through 2050 for Differentiated Household and Vehicle Types

This report documents enhancements made to the TEMPO (Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options TM ) model to project spatially, demographically, and temporally resolved national-scale EV charging load profiles and describes three scenarios and corresponding datasets created for the NREL demand-side grid (dsgrid) project in support of bulk power systems modeling. In brief, TEMPO was enhanced to disaggregate national and annual energy demand projections into household and county-level projections of passenger electric vehicle (EV) hourly charging load profiles (8760 profiles), accounting for consumer, travel, and temperature variations that impact EV energy demand. In alignment with NREL's forward-looking grid modeling, three scenarios for EV adoption covering 2020-2050 were created-- Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) Reference Case, Electrification Futures Study (EFS) High Electrification, and All EV Sales by 2035 --and associated datasets have been included in the dsgrid platform for public use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗