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At least 271 records · Page 15

The energy balance of the nighttime thermosphere

Energy balance considerations for the thermosphere are affected by the uncertainty of the solar EUV flux. The problem is simplified by investigating only the nighttime thermosphere. Vapor trail measurements provide wind data at the sunset and sunrise terminators and near the polar cap boundary. Temperature and density profiles were obtained from incoherent scatter and Ogo 6 measurements. Based on the available data the energy losses are estimated to be 8 times 10 to the 10th W due to downward conduction at 120 km and 3 times 10 to the 10th W due to infrared radiation. The energy carried by the measured winds from the polar cap is found to be 4.6 times 10 to the 10th W and that transported across the mid- and low-latitude terminators, 7.6 to 11 times 10 to the 10th W. The greatest uncertainty in this analysis was in the estimates of the differences in the densities and temperatures in the lower thermosphere at the dawn and dusk terminators. Because of the large rotational velocity of the earth, small differences in these parameters correspond to large amounts of energy transported to the night hemisphere.

Glenar, D. A.↗

Improved net carbon budgets in the US Midwest through direct measured impacts of enhanced weathering

Abstract Terrestrial enhanced weathering (EW) through the application of Mg‐ or Ca‐rich rock dust to soil is a negative emission technology with the potential to address impacts of climate change. The effectiveness of EW was tested over 4 years by spreading ground basalt (50 t ha −1 year −1 ) on maize/soybean and miscanthus cropping systems in the Midwest US. The major elements of the carbon budget were quantified through measurements of eddy covariance, soil carbon flux, and biomass. The movement of Mg and Ca to deep soil, released by weathering, balanced by a corresponding alkalinity flux, was used to measure the drawdown of CO 2 , where the release of cations from basalt was measured as the ratio of rare earth elements to base cations in the applied rock dust and in the surface soil. Basalt application stimulated peak biomass and net primary production in both cropping systems and caused a small but significant stimulation of soil respiration. Net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was strongly negative for maize/soybean (−199 to −453 g C m −2 year −1 ) indicating this system was losing carbon to the atmosphere. Average EW (102 g C m −2 year −1 ) offset carbon loss in the maize/soybean by 23%–42%. NECB of miscanthus was positive (63–129 g C m −2 year −1 ), indicating carbon gain in the system, and EW greatly increased inorganic carbon storage by an additional 234 g C m −2 year −1 . Our analysis indicates a co‐deployment of a perennial biofuel crop (miscanthus) with EW leads to major wins—increased harvested yields of 29%–42% with additional carbon dioxide removal (CDR) of 8.6 t CO 2 ha −1 year −1 . EW applied to maize/soybean drives a CDR of 3.7 t CO 2 ha −1 year −1 , which partially offsets well‐established carbon losses from soil from this crop rotation. EW applied in the US Midwest creates measurable improvements to the carbon budgets perennial bioenergy crops and conventional row crops.

enhanced weathering↗

An Approach to Solving Enclosure Radiation Problems in A Multi-Physics Context

Thermal protection system analysis of complex features or damage sites can sometimes require modeling of high temperature enclosures. Implementing efficient and accurate view-factor algorithms required to model such problems is complex. The current work leverages the Non-equilibrium Radiation (NERO) software, which solves the radiation transport equation in a finite-volume scheme, to alleviating challenges often faced with view-factor calculations. By assuming heat transfer occurs only between grey bodies and that the medium is non-participating, computational cost of the method is significantly reduced. The enclosure physics are modeled through emitting and reflecting boundary conditions in NERO. The emitted radiative flux is dependent on the wall temperature which is a solution to the material response, obtained from Icarus, in this context. The Ares framework manages the time-advancement and exchange of the necessary data between the solvers. The surface energy balance is modified to account for the enclosure terms within the material response boundary condition. The methodology was verified against analytical solutions including radiating parallel plates, a hollow cylinder (shown in Fig. 1), and a hemisphere. Application of the methodology to inform the design of components of the Dragonfly system will be shown.

Ablation↗

Soil water percolation and nutrient fluxes as a function of topographical, seasonal and soil texture variation in Central Amazonia, Brazil

Abstract Understanding soil water dynamics and transport of nutrients is challenging in tropical rainforests due to the uniqueness of several properties related to soils, vegetation and seasonality that make relating patterns found in temperate environments to tropical sites difficult. We address the need for better edaphic characterization in tropical environments by investigating soil water percolation rates and chemistry across topographic, soil texture and seasonal gradients in a mature tropical rainforest in Central Amazonia, Brazil. We utilized a passive wick flux meter (e.g., drainage lysimeter) to directly measure real‐time percolation fluxes at 60‐cm depth, and to sample a suite of chemical species across plateau, slope and valley topographic positions. We found percolation flux volume and chemical exports generally increase with decreasing elevation and clay content, which was lowest in the valley. Daily percolation flux was observed to be 2.39 ± 0.44 in plateau, 3.01 ± 0.50 in slope and 6.16 ± 0.83 mm in valley. Most solutes were present in small amounts of <1 mg L −1 , such as PO₄ 3− , Fe 2+ /Fe 3+ and Mn 2+ ; however, NO 3 − concentrations were >20 mg L −1 , even exceeding 100 mg L −1 in the valley. Based on additional isotopic analysis, we speculate high NO 3 − concentrations are partially an artefact of root decomposition following installation of the flux meters. The empirical relationships we show among percolation volume and nutrient exports under varying topographies and soil textures can improve Earth System Model performance by better constraining ecohydrological relationships to nutrient fluxes, which can in‐turn better illuminate the important factors that govern their behaviour.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Middle Atmosphere Response to Different Descriptions of the 11-Year Solar Cycle in Spectral Irradiance in a Chemistry-Climate Model

The 11-year solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE) suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM). The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3-6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response 50 using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOS CCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm and destruction at longer wavelengths, coincidentally corresponding to the wavelength regimes of the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on SORCE, respectively. A higher wavelength-resolution analysis of the spectral response could allow for a better prediction of the atmospheric response to arbitrary SSI variations.

Swartz, W. H.↗

Covariability in the Monthly Mean Convective and Radiative Diurnal Cycles in the Amazon

The diurnal cycle of convective clouds greatly influences the radiative energy balance in convectively active regions of Earth, through both direct presence, and the production of anvil and stratiform clouds. Previous studies show that the frequency and properties of convective clouds can vary on monthly timescales as a result of variability in the monthly mean atmospheric state. Furthermore, the radiative budget in convectively active regions also varies by up to 7 Wm-2 in convectively active regions. These facts suggest that convective clouds connect atmospheric state variability and radiation variability beyond clear sky effects alone. Previous research has identified monthly covariability between the diurnal cycle of CERES-observed top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes and multiple atmospheric state variables from reanalysis over the Amazon region. ASVs that enhance (reduce) deep convection, such as CAPE (LTS), tend to shift the daily OLR and cloud albedo maxima earlier (later) in the day by 2-3 hr. We first test the analysis method using multiple reanalysis products for both the dry and wet seasons to further investigate the robustness of the preliminary results. We then use CloudSat data as an independent cloud observing system to further evaluate the relationships of cloud properties to variability in radiation and atmospheric states. While CERES can decompose OLR variability into clear sky and cloud effects, it cannot determine what variability in cloud properties lead to variability in the radiative cloud effects. Cloud frequency, cloud top height, and cloud microphysics all contribute to the cloud radiative effect, all of which are observable by CloudSat. In addition, CloudSat can also observe the presence and variability of deep convective cores responsible for the production of anvil clouds. We use these capabilities to determine the covariability of convective cloud properties and the radiative diurnal cycle.

Dodson, Jason B.↗

Dust Accumulation and Solar Panel Array Performance on the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Project

One of the most fundamental design considerations for any space vehicle is its power supply system. Many options exist, including batteries, fuel cells, nuclear reactors, radioisotopic thermal generators (RTGs), and solar panel arrays. Solar arrays have many advantages over other types of power generation. They are lightweight and relatively inexpensive, allowing more mass and funding to be allocated for other important devices, such as scientific instruments. For Mars applications, solar power is an excellent option, especially for long missions. One might think that dust storms would be a problem; however, while dust blocks some solar energy, it also scatters it, making it diffuse rather than beamed. Solar cells are still able to capture this diffuse energy and convert it into substantial electrical power. For these reasons, solar power was chosen to be used on the 1997 Mars Pathfinder mission. The success of this mission set a precedent, as NASA engineers have selected solar power as the energy system of choice for all future Mars missions, including the Mars Exploration Rover (MER) Project. Solar sells have their drawbacks, however. They are difficult to manufacture and are relatively fragile. In addition, solar cells are highly sensitive to different parts of the solar spectrum, and finding the correct balance is crucial to the success of space missions. Another drawback is that the power generated is not a constant with respect to time, but rather changes with the relative angle to the sun. On Mars, dust accumulation also becomes a factor. Over time, dust settles out of the atmosphere and onto solar panels. This dust blocks and shifts the frequency of the incoming light, degrading solar cell performance. My goal is to analyze solar panel telemetry data from the two MERs (Spirit and Opportunity) in an effort to accurately model the effect of dust accumulation on solar panels. This is no easy process due to the large number of factors involved. Changing solar flux (the amount of solar energy reaching the planet), solar spectrum, solar angle, rover tilt, and optical depth (the opacity of the atmosphere due to dust) were the most significant. Microsoft Excel and Visual Basic are used for data analysis. The results of this work will be used to improve the dust accumulation and atmosphere effects model that was first created after the Mars Pathfinder mission. This model will be utilized and applied when considering the design of solar panel array systems on future Mars projects. Based on this data, and depending upon the tenure and application of the mission, designers may also elect to employ special tools to abate dust accumulation, or decide that the expected level of accumulation is acceptable.

Turgay, Eren H.↗

Sources, Sinks, and the Distribution of OH in the Lower Stratosphere

Extensive measurement campaigns by the NASA ER-2 research aircraft have obtained a nearly pole-to-pole database of the species that control HOx (OH + HO2) chemistry. The wide dynamic range of these in situ measurements provides an opportunity to demonstrate empirically the mechanisms that control the HOx system. Measurements in the lower stratosphere show a remarkably tight correlation of OH concentration with the solar zenith angle (SZA). This correlation is nearly invariant over latitudes ranging from 70 S to 90 N and all seasons. An analysis of the production and loss of HOx in terms of the rate determining steps of reaction sequences developed by Johnston and Podolske and Johnston and Kinnison is used to clarify the behavior of the system and to directly test our understanding of the system with observations. Calculations using in situ measurements show that the production rate of HOx is proportional to O3 and ultraviolet radiation flux. The loss rate is proportional to the concentration and the partitioning of NOy (reactive nitrogen) and the concentration of HO2. In the absence of heterogeneous reactions, the partitioning of NOy is controlled by O3 and NOx and the concentration of HO2 is controlled by NOy and O3, so that the removal rate of OH is buffered against changes in the correlation of O3 and NOy. The heterogeneous conversion of NO2 to HNO3 is not an important net source of HO, because production and removal sequences are nearly balanced. Changes in NOy partitioning resulting from heterogeneous chemistry have a large effect on the loss rates of HOx, but little or no impact on the measured abundance of OH. The enhanced loss rates at high NO2/HNO3 are offset in the data set examined here by enhanced production rates resulting from increased photolysis rates resulting from the decreased O3 column above the ER-2.

Hanisco, T. F.↗

Turbulence Model Validation through Joint Experimental / Computational Studies of Separated Flow Over a Three-Dimensional Tapered Bump: Part II - Computational Investigation

This report serves as documentation of activities related to Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis applied to the Smooth Body Separation Experiment designed to produce validation-quality experimental data from wind-tunnel tests performed at the University of Notre Dame. All CFD analysis utilized the Boeing CFD (BCFD) flow solver. BCFD was used to analyze flow over the Boeing Speed Bump with second-order accuracy in space and time. Inviscid fluxes were computed using the HLLE scheme for steady-state simulations, and the Low-Dissipation Roe scheme for time-accurate simulations. The working fluid was modeled as calorically perfect air using Sutherland's law for viscosity. Thermal diffusivity was determined by assuming a constant molecular Prandtl number of 0.72, and a turbulent Prandtl number of 0.9. Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes (RANS) simulations were conducted using the one-equation Spalart-Allmaras turbulence model with rotation correction3 and the quadratic constitutive relation (SA-RC-QCR), as well as Menter's two-equation, Shear-Stress Transport (SST) model. Time-accurate computations were conducted using Delayed Detached eddy Simulation (DDES) with the one-equation RANS model, and Large Eddy Stress balance (LESb) with the two-equation RANS model. Implicit dual-time stepping was used to achieve second-order temporal accuracy. The experimental investigation conducted during the course of this study is described in detail in an accompanying report.

Flow separation↗

Using a Simple Water Balance Framework to Quantify the Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Subseasonal Evapotranspiration and Air Temperature Forecasts

Past studies have shown that accurate soil moisture initialization can contribute significant skill to near-surface air temperature (T2M) forecasts at subseasonal leads. The mechanisms by which soil moisture contributes such skill are examined here with a simple water balance-based model that captures the essence of soil moisture behavior in a state-of-the-art subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting system. The simple model successfully transforms initial soil moisture contents into average “forecasted” ET values at 16-30 day lead that agree well, during summer, with the values forecasted by the full NASA GEOS S2S system, indicating that soil moisture initialization dominates over forecasted meteorology in determining ET fluxes at subseasonal leads. When the simple model’s ET anomalies are interpreted in terms of T2M anomalies, a similar conclusion is reached for T2M: soil moisture initialization explains much (about 50% in the eastern half of the continental US) of the T2M anomalies produced by the full GEOS S2S system at 16-30 day lead, and the T2M forecasts produced by the simple model capture about half of the skill attained by the full system. The simple model’s framework is particularly conducive to an analysis of uncertainty in forecasts. Drier soils are generally found to induce larger uncertainty in ET (and thus T2M) forecasts, a result linked to the functional form relating ET to soil moisture in the simple model and verified by an analysis of the ensemble spreads within the forecasts produced by the full GEOS S2S system

Randal D Koster↗

Plasma sheet at lunar distance - Structure and solar-wind dependence.

Analysis of Explorer 35 observation of low-energy (0.1 to 3 keV) electrons in the distant geomagnetic tail at 60 earth radii, and comparison with the solar-wind conditions monitored simultaneously by Explorer 33. The plasma sheet extends to the lunar distance with almost the same characteristics as those observed in the near tail region; the thickness is several earth radii, and the flux, density, and energy are of the order of 10 to the 9th per sq cm per sec, 1 per cu cm, and 0.6 keV, respectively. The latitudinal boundaries of the plasma sheet are essentially parallel to magnetic-field lines. Indication is seen of the thinning of the plasma sheet during polar substorms. The average energy of electrons is correlated with the solar-wind velocity in agreement with the view that plasma-sheet electrons originate from the magnetosheath. The flux is correlated with the solar-wind dynamic pressure, reflecting the dynamic balance between the solar wind and the geomagnetic tail.

Nishida, A.↗

The anaerobic fungus Caecomyces churrovis produces H 2 via a non-bifurcating NADH-dependent enzyme complex

ABSTRACT Hydrogenosomes are mitochondria-derived organelles that produce ATP and H 2 to support energy metabolism in anaerobic eukaryotes. H 2 production allows reoxidation of reduced cofactors generated during fermentative metabolism; however, the metabolic mechanisms for H 2 production in anaerobic eukaryotes remains incompletely understood. In particular, it remains unclear whether anaerobic fungi (AF) hydrogenosomes use a ferredoxin-dependent pathway or a distinct mechanism to regenerate NAD(P) + and link electron transfer to H 2 formation. Here, by combining genomic search, proteomic analysis, and enzymology, we reveal the molecular mechanism for H 2 production in the AF strain Caecomyces churrovis . Our enzyme assays on the organelle fraction of C. churrovis revealed the activity of H 2 :NAD + oxidoreductase but not pyruvate:ferredoxin oxidoreductase, which is usually linked to H 2 formation. We identified genes encoding [FeFe] hydrogenase (Hyd) and NADH dehydrogenase subunits E and F (NuoE, NuoF) in C. churrovis , and confirmed their expression in the isolated hydrogenosomal fractions by proteomic analysis. Combining the individually purified enzymes, we found Hyd and NuoEF proteins formed H 2 directly from NADH independently of ferredoxin, functioning as a non-bifurcating NADH-dependent enzyme rather than an electron-bifurcating enzyme. We identified homologs of hydrogenosomal NuoE, NuoF, and Hyd in many other AF, indicating this pathway is commonly shared among the AF. This work demonstrates the existence of a non-bifurcating NADH-dependent enzyme complex in eukaryotes. Moreover, this complex could potentially be exploited as a target for controlling AF H 2 production and altering fungal metabolism. IMPORTANCE H 2 production is a prominent feature of anaerobic energy metabolism, yet our understanding of eukaryotic mechanisms remains limited. Anaerobic fungi (AF) are key decomposers of lignocellulose and contribute to hydrogen flux in anaerobic environments. Although it has been more than 40 years since the H 2 production from AF was first reported, the molecular mechanism for hydrogenosomal H 2 production and redox balance remains unclear. We demonstrate that AF produce H 2 from NADH utilizing a non-bifurcating NADH-dependent enzyme complex rather than an electron-bifurcating, ferredoxin-dependent variant. We show that this enzyme complex is conserved across multiple AF lineages and thus demonstrate the occurrence of a non-bifurcating NADH-dependent enzyme in eukaryotes. This discovery expands our understanding of eukaryotic hydrogenosomal metabolism, reveals a previously unknown strategy for redox balancing, and highlights potential targets for manipulating H 2 production. These insights have broad implications for microbial energy metabolism, anaerobic ecosystems, and bioengineering of H 2 -producing systems.

Zhang, Bo [Department of Chemical Engineering, Uni↗

Surface impacts and associated mechanisms of a moisture intrusion into the Arctic observed in mid-April 2020 during MOSAiC

Distinct events of warm and moist air intrusions (WAIs) from mid-latitudes have pronounced impacts on the Arctic climate system. We present a detailed analysis of a record-breaking WAI observed during the MOSAiC expedition in mid-April 2020. By combining Eulerian with Lagrangian frameworks and using simulations across different scales, we investigate aspects of air mass transformations via cloud processes and quantify related surface impacts. The WAI is characterized by two distinct pathways, Siberian and Atlantic. A moist static energy transport across the Arctic Circle above the climatological 90th percentile is found. Observations at research vessel Polarstern show a transition from radiatively clear to cloudy state with significant precipitation and a positive surface energy balance (SEB), i.e., surface warming. WAI air parcels reach Polarstern first near the tropopause, and only 1–2 days later at lower altitudes. In the 5 days prior to the event, latent heat release during cloud formation triggers maximum diabatic heating rates in excess of 20 K d -1 . For some poleward drifting air parcels, this facilitates strong ascent by up to 9 km. Based on model experiments, we explore the role of two key cloud-determining factors. First, we test the role moisture availability by reducing lateral moisture inflow during the WAI by 30%. This does not significantly affect the liquid water path, and therefore the SEB, in the central Arctic. The cause are counteracting mechanisms of cloud formation and precipitation along the trajectory. Second, we test the impact of increasing Cloud Condensation Nuclei concentrations from 10 to 1,000 cm -3 (pristine Arctic to highly polluted), which enhances cloud water content. Resulting stronger longwave cooling at cloud top makes entrainment more efficient and deepens the atmospheric boundary layer. Finally, we show the strongly positive effect of the WAI on the SEB. This is mainly driven by turbulent heat fluxes over the ocean, but radiation over sea ice. The WAI also contributes a large fraction to precipitation in the Arctic, reaching 30% of total precipitation in a 9-day period at the MOSAiC site. However, measured precipitation varies substantially between different platforms. Therefore, estimates of total precipitation are subject to considerable observational uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Relationships between evaprorative fraction and remotely sensed vegetation index and microwave brightness temperature for semiarid rangelands

Measurements of the microwave brightness temperature (TB) with the Pushbroom Microwave Radiometer (PBMR) over the Walnut Gulch Experiment Watershed were made on selected days during the MONSOON 90 field campaign. The PBMR is an L-band instrument (21-cm wavelength) that can provide estimates of near-surface soil moisture over a variety of surfaces. Aircraft observations in the visible and near-infrared wavelengths collected on selected days also were used to compute a vegetation index. Continuous micrometeorological measurements and daily soil moisture samples were obtained at eight locations during experimental period. Two sites were instrumented with time domain reflectometry probes to monitor the soil moisture profile. The fraction of available energy used for evapotranspiration was computed by taking the ratio of latent heat flux (LE) to the sum of net radiation (Rn) and soil heat flux (G). This ratio is commonly called the evaporative fraction (EF) and normally varies between 0 and 1 under daytime convective conditions with minimal advection. A wide range of environmental conditions existed during the field campaign, resulting in average EF values for the study area varying from 0.4 to 0.8 and values of TB ranging from 220 to 280 K. Comparison between measured TB and EF for the eight locations showed an inverse relationship. Other days were included in the analysis by estimating TB with the soil moisture data. Because transpiration from the vegetation is more strongly coupled to root zone soil moisture, significant scatter in this relationship existed at high values of TB or dry near-surface soil moisture conditions. The variation in EF under dry near-surface soil moisture conditions was correlated to the amount of vegetation cover estimated with a remotely sensed vegetation index. These findings indicate that information obtained from optical and microwave data can be used for quantifying the energy balance of semiarid areas. The microwave data can indicate when soil evaporation is significantly contributing to EF, while the optical data is helpful for quantifying the spatial variation in EF due to the distribution of vegetation cover.

Kustas, W. P.↗

Impact of the CO2 and H2O clouds of the Martian polar hood on the polar energy balance

Clouds covering extensive areas above the martian polar caps have regularly been observed during the fall and winter seasons of each hemisphere. These 'polar hoods' are thought to be made of H2O and CO2. In particular, the very cold temperatures observed during the polar night by Viking and Mariner 9 around both poles have been identified as CO2 clouds and several models, including GCM, have indicated that the CO2 can condense in the atmosphere at all polar latitudes. Estimating the impact of the polar hood clouds on the energy balance of the polar regions is necessary to model the CO2 cycle and address puzzling problems like the polar caps assymetry. For example, by altering the thermal radiation emitted to space, CO2 clouds alter the amount of CO2 that condenses during the fall and winter season. The complete set of Viking IRTM data was analyzed to define the spatial and temporal properties of the polar hoods, and how their presence affects the energy radiated by the atmosphere/caps system to space was estimated. The IRTM observations provide good spatial and temporal converage of both polar regions during fall, winter, and spring, when a combination of the first and the second Viking year is used. Only the IRTM brightness temperatures at 11, 15, and 20 microns are reliable at martian polar temperatures. To recover the integrated thermal fluxes from the IRTM data, a simple model of the polar hood, thought to consist of 'warm' H2O clouds lying above colder and opaque CO2 clouds was developed. Such a model is based on the analysis of the IRIS spectra, and is consistent with the IRTM data used.

Forget, Francois↗

Simulated wildfire burned area over the CONUS during 2001-2020

Wildfires have shown increasing trends in both frequency and severity across the Contiguous United States (CONUS). However, process-based fire models have difficulties in accurately simulating the burned area over the CONUS due to a simplification of the physical process and cannot capture the interplay among fire, ignition, climate, and human activities. The deficiency of burned area simulation deteriorates the description of fire impact on energy balance, water budget, and carbon fluxes in the Earth System Models (ESMs). Alternatively, machine learning (ML) based fire models, which capture statistical relationships between the burned area and environmental factors, have shown promising burned area predictions and corresponding fire impact simulation. We develop a hybrid framework (ML4Fire-XGB) that integrates a pretrained eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) wildfire model with the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). A Fortran-C-Python deep learning bridge is adapted to support online communication between ELM and the ML fire model. Specifically, the burned area predicted by the ML-based wildfire model is directly passed to ELM to adjust the carbon pool and vegetation dynamics after disturbance, which are then used as predictors in the ML-based fire model in the next time step. Evaluated against the historical burned area from Global Fire Emissions Database 5 from 2001-2020, the ML4Fire-XGB model outperforms process-based fire models in terms of spatial distribution and seasonal variations. Sensitivity analysis confirms that the ML4Fire-XGB well captures the responses of the burned area to rising temperatures. The ML4Fire-XGB model has proved to be a new tool for studying vegetation-fire interactions, and more importantly, enables seamless exploration of climate-fire feedback, working as an active component in E3SM.

Liu, Ye↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-17940-DND

The NASA/GEWEX SRB (Global Energy and Water Exchanges, Surface Radiation Budget) project produces and archives shortwave and longwave radiation budget flux estimates at the top of the atmosphere and at the Earth's surface. The latest version in the archive, Release 3.0, is available as 3-hourly, 3-hourly-monthly, daily and monthly means continuously over the period from July 1983 to December 2007 on a quasi-equal-area grid system of 44016 grid boxes. SRB Release 4 with further improvements in data quality and higher spatial resolution is being developed. The SRB shortwave/longwave fluxes at the Earth's surface from the algorithm GSW(V3.0)/GLW(V3.1) have been extensively validated against high-quality ground-based observations, in particular observed data from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN). Comparisons with nearly 6000 site-months of both shortwave and longwave data from 52 BSRN sites show generally good agreement. In addition, the GEWEX SRB data have also been found to compare favorably with the World Radiation Data Centre (WRDC) data and the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) data. In spite of the fact that the BSRN sites are scattered on all seven continents, the validation of the SRB data over the vast oceans had not been done until recently. In this paper, we present comparisons of the GEWEX-SRB data shortwave/longwave data with observations made on arrays moored in tropical oceans. Specifically, we have data from 21 buoys, or moorings, from Predictions and Research Moored Array in the Atlantic (PIRATA), 14 buoys from the Research Moored Array for African-Asian-Australian Monsoon Analysis and Prediction (RAMA) in the Indian Ocean, 20 buoys from the Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array in the Pacific, and 3 buoys from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute (WHOI) (2 in the Pacific and 1 in the Atlantic). The data from these buoys span 12 years from 2000 to 2011, though not necessarily continuously. It is found that except for occasional outliers, the majority of the comparable pairs of data points agree well. Further examination of the outliers is necessary to determine whether they can be attributed to wind-driven tilt and/or aerosol accumulation on the instruments. In order to see how the ocean-based validation compares with land-based validation, we made SRB-BSRN monthly mean shortwave/longwave radiation comparisons in the tropical region only, where all the buoys are moored. The results show that in the case of shortwave radiation, the bias error from the ocean-based validation is somewhat larger than its land-based counterpart, but their RMS errors are not significantly different. In the case of longwave radiation, the ocean-based and land-based validations show nearly identical comparison statistics.

Taiping Zhang↗

Hydrogeological assessment of CO2 containment assurance and wellbore integrity at a Gulf Coast storage site

Abstract A large-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) initiative on the Texas Gulf Coast serves as a premier demonstration of the U.S. Department of Energy’s CarbonSAFE program. Targeting deep saline formations, specifically Oligo-Miocene deltaic sequences, the project aims to establish technical and commercial viability for geologic CO2 storage within a major industrial corridor. This study provides a rigorous hydrogeological assessment to support Class VI permitting by quantifying the high degree of containment security. Utilizing a compositional reservoir simulator, we developed a suite of 27 distinct simulation cases to evaluate vertical plume dynamics near both planned injection wells and proximal legacy infrastructure. To ensure numerical accuracy near wellbores, we implemented a refined mesh strategy, determining that a 5.6 ft × 5.6 ft grid refinement offered the optimal balance between computational efficiency and descriptive precision. The modeling framework utilized a systematic sensitivity-based approach to evaluate the mechanical redundancy of the subsurface system by performing a bounding analysis of wellbore interfaces against hypothetical high-permeability microannuli. By systematically isolating competing physical drivers, including permeability, porosity, gas hysteresis, thermal gradients, salinity, and solubility trapping (quantified via Henry’s law with dynamically adjusted coefficients), this work moves beyond binary assessments to establish a nuanced hierarchy of containment factors. The results confirm that primary trapping mechanisms (e.g., gas hysteresis and solubility), combined with the site's unique geomechanical stratigraphy, significantly restrict vertical mobility and reinforce the robust containment security of the reservoir. Baseline results demonstrate substantial vertical separation between the CO2 plume and the upper confining system, ensuring robust containment. Sensitivity analysis reveals that even under highly conservative bounding scenarios—assuming theoretical 10-Darcy pathways at specific wellbore locations—the 2,900-ft thick multi-layered confining zone remains a reliable barrier. In these hypothetical upper-bound cases, peak upward fluxes of CO2 and saltwater after 15 years of injection remain localized and dissipate rapidly within the lower sections of the confining interval, leaving the integrity of the seal uncompromised. Furthermore, the study identifies that while localized wellbore pathways define theoretical upper bounds of vertical migration, the Area of Review (AoR) is primarily sensitive to regional thermal gradients and hysteresis, which can influence the AoR by over 3,000 acres in pessimistic configurations. Also, primary trapping mechanisms, specifically gas hysteresis and solubility, work in tandem with the Gulf Coast’s unique geomechanical stratigraphy to significantly restrict vertical mobility. Ductile, smectite-rich mudstones facilitate natural borehole convergence and the self-healing of potential conduits, creating a natural geomechanical bridge that effectively mitigates migration potential at both current injection points and legacy-well locations. This comprehensive modeling effort demonstrates that the integration of high-resolution wellbore simulations and regional geomechanical observations confirms the long-term storage security of the studied site, providing a physics-based foundation for industrial-scale CCS deployments. This modeling framework establishes a baseline for future research into coupled geomechanical effects, such as time-dependent borehole convergence, to further refine long-term containment projections. Acknowledgements We thank the Gulf Coast Carbon Center (GCCC) at the Bureau of Economic Geology for foundational research support. We appreciate Alex Bump for technical guidance and David Hoffman for model mesh generation. This work used TACC’s Frontera cluster for simulations and CMG Ltd. software licenses provided to UT-Austin. This material is based upon work supported by the Department of Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032338. Disclaimer This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Energy’s Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Office under the CarbonSAFE program, award Number DE-FE0032338. The views expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Energy or the United States Government.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗