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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Exponentially Reduced Circuit Depths Using Trotter Error Mitigation

Product formulas are a popular class of digital quantum simulation algorithms due to their conceptual simplicity, low overhead, and performance, which often exceeds theoretical expectations. Recently, Richardson extrapolation and polynomial interpolation have been proposed to mitigate the Trotter error incurred by the use of these formulas. This work provides a rigorous, general analysis of these techniques for computing time-evolved observables, simplifying the interpolation algorithm in the process, and shows that extrapolation generically improves the performance of product formulas for this task. We demonstrate that, to achieve error 𝜖 in a simulation of time 𝑇 using a 𝑝 ⁢th-order product formula with extrapolation, circuit depths of 𝑂⁡(𝑇 1+1/𝑝 ⁢polylog (1/𝜖)) are sufficient—an exponential improvement in the precision over product formulas alone. Furthermore, we prove that these algorithms achieve commutator scaling, and improve the 𝑇 complexity for the interpolation algorithm. By relaxing the requirement of performing exact Chebyshev interpolation, our simplified algorithm eliminates the need for fractional implementations of Trotter steps, reducing computational overhead. Finally, we show these techniques can be combined with the classical shadows method to estimate many time-evolved local observables. Taken together, our findings provide the strongest evidence yet for the utility of Trotter error-mitigation techniques in algorithmic applications.

quantum algorithms & computation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Charged-particle spectra from μ – capture on Al

Published data on the emission of charged particles following nuclear muon capture are extremely limited. In addition to its interest as a probe of the nuclear response, these data are important for the design of some current searches for lepton flavor violation. This work presents momentum spectra of protons and deuterons following μ- capture in aluminum. It is the first measurement of a muon capture process performed with a tracking spectrometer. A precision of better than 10% over the momentum range of 100–190MeV/c for protons is obtained; for deuterons of 145–250MeV/c the precision is better than 20%. The observed partial yield of protons with emission momenta above 80MeV/c (kinetic energy 3.4MeV) is 0.0322 ± 0.0007(stat) ± 0.0022(syst) per capture, and for deuterons above 130MeV/c (4.5MeV) it is 0.0122 ± 0.0009(stat) ± 0.0006(syst). Extrapolating to total yields gives 0.045 ± 0.001(stat) ± 0.003(syst) ± 0.001(extrapolation) per capture for protons and 0.018 ± 0.001(stat) ± 0.001(syst)± 0.002(extrapolation) for deuterons, which are the most precise measurements of these quantities to date.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of the 13 C(α,n) 16 O S factor to the uncertainty in the level parameters of the near-threshold state

The 13 C(α,n) 16 O reaction is the main source of neutrons for the s and i processes in asymptotic giant branch stars and carbon-enhanced metal-poor stars, respectively. The reaction rate over the relevant temperature range from 0.1 to 0.3 GK translates into a center-of-mass energy range of 150 to 540 keV. Current measurements extend down to 300 keV, still requiring an extrapolation of the cross section. At these low energies, the high-energy tail of a 1/2 + state near the reaction threshold makes a significant contribution to the cross section, but its amplitude is still highly uncertain. In this work the uncertainties associated with the low-energy cross-section extrapolation are investigated, in particular the sensitivity to the energy, width, and Coulomb renormalized asymptotic normalization coefficient of the near-threshold resonance. Furthermore, recently it has been suggested that the energy of the near-threshold level may have a large impact on the extrapolation, but this is not found to be the case compared with the other sources of uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Baseline predictions of elliptic flow and fluctuations for the RHIC Beam Energy Scan using response coefficients

Currently the RHIC Beam Energy Scan is exploring a new region of the Quantum Chromodynamic phase diagram at large baryon densities that approaches nuclear astrophysics regimes. This provides an opportunity to study relativistic hydrodynamics in a regime where the net conserved charges of baryon number, strangeness, and electric charge play a role, which will significantly change the theoretical approach to simulating the baryon-dense Quark-Gluon Plasma. In this work, we detail many of the important changes needed to adapt both initial conditions and the medium to baryon-rich matter. Then, we make baseline predictions for the elliptical flow and fluctuations based on extrapolating the physics at LHC and top RHIC energies to support future analyses of where and how the new baryon-dense physics causes these extrapolations to break down. First we compare eccentricities across beam energies, exploring their underlying assumptions; we find the the extrapolated initial state is predicted to be nearly identical to that at AuAu $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 200 GeV. Then the final flow harmonic predictions are based on linear+cubic response. We discuss preliminary STAR results in order to determine the implications that they have for linear+cubic response coefficients at the lowest beam energy of AuAu $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 7 GeV.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Improved naive Bayesian probability classifier in predictions of nuclear mass

Recently, novel statistical methods such as neural networks and Bayesian learning methods are implemented to describe the nuclear masses. Based on previous studies, an improved naive Bayesian probability (iNBP) classifier is proposed to study the nuclear masses by refining the results of sophisticated nuclear models. In the iNBP method, the prediction for nuclear masses is treated as a classification problem. The residuals are classified into several groups to generate prior and conditional probabilities, and the posterior probabilities are further determined by the Bayesian formula. We choose the expectation with maximum probability as the final prediction. Reliability of the iNBP method is assessed by analyzing the global optimizations and the extrapolating capabilities. Here, the iNBP method exhibits impressive improvements on global descriptions for different mass models. Moreover, the method shows robust extrapolating capabilities. Results demonstrate the iNBP method can be applied to predict the nuclear masses of unknown regions. Considering the local mass relations, the iNBP method can offer considerable fine-tuning of the mass descriptions from nuclear models. The methodology proposed in this paper can also be applied to other model-based extrapolations of nuclear observables.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Ground-state properties of light 4 n self-conjugate nuclei in ab initio no-core Monte Carlo shell model calculations with nonlocal N N interactions

We report J π = 0 + ground-state energies and point-proton radii of 4 He, 8 Be, 12 C, 16 O, and 20 Ne nuclei calculated by the ab initio no-core Monte Carlo shell model with the JISP16 and Daejeon16 nonlocal NN interactions. Ground-state energies are obtained in the basis spaces up to seven oscillator shells (N shell =7) with several oscillator energies (ℏω) around the optimal oscillator energy for the convergence of ground-state energies. These energy eigenvalues are extrapolated to obtain estimates of converged ground-state energies in each basis space using energy variances of computed energy eigenvalues. We further extrapolate these energy-variance-extrapolated energies obtained in the finite basis spaces to infinite basis-space results with an empirical exponential form. This form features a dependence on the basis-space size but is independent of the value of ℏω used for the harmonic-oscillator basis functions. Point-proton radii for these states of atomic nuclei are also calculated following techniques employed for the energies. From these results, it is found that the Daejeon16 NN interaction provides good agreement with experimental data up to approximately 16 O, while the JISP16 NN interaction provides good agreement with experimental data up to approximately 12 C. Beyond these nuclei, the interactions produce overbinding accompanied by radii that are too small. These findings suggest and encourage further revisions of nonlocal NN interactions towards the investigation of nuclear structure in heavier-mass regions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Nuclear masses learned from a probabilistic neural network

Machine learning methods and uncertainty quantification have been gaining interest throughout the last several years in low-energy nuclear physics. In particular, Gaussian processes and Bayesian neural networks have increasingly been applied to improve mass model predictions while providing well-quantified uncertainties. In this work, we use the probabilistic Mixture Density Network (MDN) to directly predict the mass excess of the 2016 Atomic Mass Evaluation within the range of measured data, and we extrapolate the inferred models beyond available experimental data. The MDN provides not only mean values but also full posterior distributions both within the training set and extrapolated testing set. We show that the addition of physical information to the feature space increases the accuracy of the match to the training data as well as provides for more physically meaningful extrapolations beyond the the limits of experimental data.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

16 O ⁡(𝑒,𝑒′⁢𝛼)⁢ 12 C measurements and the 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O astrophysical reaction rate

The 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O reaction, an important component of stellar helium burning, has a key role in nuclear astrophysics. It has significant impact on the evolution and final state of heavy to low mass stars, maximum mass of stellar formed black holes and also shapes the elemental abundances resulting from nucleosynthesis in such stars. Providing a reliable estimate for the energy dependence of this reaction at stellar helium burning temperatures has been a longstanding and important goal. In this work, we study the role of potential new 𝐸⁢1 and 𝐸⁢2 measurements of the 16 O ⁡(𝑒,𝑒′⁢𝛼)⁢ 12 C reaction in reducing the overall uncertainty in the astrophysical 𝑆 factor for the 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O 𝐸⁢1 and 𝐸⁢2 ground state capture extrapolated to a stellar energy of 300 keV. A multilevel 𝑅-matrix analysis is used to make extrapolations of the 𝑆 𝐸⁢1 (300 keV) and 𝑆 𝐸⁢2 (300 keV) factors for the 12 C ⁡(𝛼,𝛾)⁢ 16 O reaction from existing ground state capture data. Bayesian analysis is used to quantify the uncertainties in the extrapolations for both the existing data alone and also when possible new experimental data are included. In particular, we consider a new experiment that would make use of a high-intensity low-energy electron beam that impinges on a windowless oxygen gas target as a means to determine the total 𝐸⁢1 and 𝐸⁢2 ground state cross sections for this reaction. Here we find that the new data could significantly reduce the 𝑆⁡(300) uncertainties. Splitting the new data into high and low energy regions shows that both low and high energy data are effective in reducing the uncertainty.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Validation of Fault Displacements from Dynamic Rupture Simulations against the Observations from the 1992 Landers Earthquake

ABSTRACT Coseismic fault displacements in large earthquakes have caused significant damage to structures and lifelines on and near fault lines. Coseismic displacements represent a real threat, especially to distributed infrastructure systems. For infrastructure systems that can not avoid active faults, engineering displacement demands are defined using probabilistic fault-displacement hazard analyses (PFDHA). However, PFDHA models are sparse and poorly constrained partly due to the scarcity of detailed fault-displacement observations. Advancements in dynamic rupture simulation methods make them an attractive approach to address this important issue. Because fault displacements can be simulated for various geologic conditions as constrained by current knowledge about earthquake processes, they can be used to supplement the observation datasets. In addition to providing on-fault displacements, when used with appropriate constitutive models for the bulk medium, they can capture off-fault distributed inelastic deformations as well. For viable extrapolation, simulations must first be validated against data. In this article, we summarize the calibration and validation of the dynamic rupture model against the observations of the well-documented 1992 Landers earthquake. We defined a preferred model that reproduces several first-order fault-displacement metrics such as the on-fault partition of the total displacement, the mean fault-zone width, and the location of the peak displacement. Simulated ground motions consistent with the observations ensure that all physics important to modeling have been properly parameterized. For the extrapolation, we generated a suite of dynamic rupture models to quantify expected fault-displacement metrics, their intercorrelations, and magnitude dependencies, which are in part supported by the Landers and other recent earthquakes. Our validation and extrapolation exercise paves the way for using dynamic rupture modeling to quantitatively address fault-displacement hazard on a broader scale. The results are promising and are expected to be useful to inform PFDHA model development.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2020

Preliminary description of a new creep-fatigue design method that reduces over conservatism and simplifies the high temperature design process

The report provides the initial description of a new creep-fatigue design method for structural components in high temperature nuclear service. The new method is based on an integrated elastic-perfectly plastic (EPP) analysis and Simplified Model Test (SMT) approach that reduces over conservatism, improves the treatment of elastic follow up, and simplifies the design procedure, when compared with the current creep-fatigue design methods in ASME Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code. Developing the design charts for the EPP-SMT design method requires extrapolating SMT test data as a function of hold time and follow up factor. The report develops the preliminary design charts for Alloy 617 at temperatures between 800°C and 950°C by combining two extrapolation approaches developed in a previous work. The report also presents a comparative analysis between the EPP-SMT design method and the current ASME creep-fatigue design methods by evaluating design life of two sample geometries under different loading conditions. Results from the comparative analysis verify the EPP-SMT design charts but suggest the requirement of additional test data in the low strain range regime for improving the extrapolation procedure that will further reduce the over conservatism in the creep-fatigue damage evaluation. The report also concludes that the EPP-SMT design procedure can account for effect of primary load on creep-fatigue life by using a fixed, bounding value of follow up in constructing the design charts. The conclusions to this report describe the future work required to complete this new design method so it can be codified through a nuclear Code Case.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Draft Rules for Alloy 617 Creep-Fatigue Design Using an EPP+SMT Approach

The report describes an improved new creep-fatigue design method for structural components in high temperature nuclear service. The new method uses an integrated elastic-perfectly plastic (EPP) analysis and Simplified Model Test (SMT) approach that greatly simplifies the design process by avoiding the separate evaluation of creep and fatigue damages and eliminating the requirement of stress classification. The report includes draft design rules, presented in a format compatible with an ASME nuclear Code Case, as well as a commentary on the rules and the validation of the rules using pressurized SMT (p-SMT) test data. Areas of potential improvement have been identified for further evaluation. The report also develops EPP+SMT design charts for Alloy 617 at temperatures between 800°C and 950°C by extrapolating high strain range, short hold test data to low strain range and long hold times, typical for structural components in high temperature nuclear service. The design charts are currently limited to 10,000 cycles to avoid excessive extrapolation outside the test database. More robust alternate extrapolation procedures will be considered in future work. The report includes several verification problems comparing the new EPP+SMT design method with current ASME creep-fatigue design methods. The comparison demonstrates that the EPP+SMT method significantly reduces the over-conservatism in current methods. Finally, the report includes a fully-documented sample problem with multiple load cases detailing the application of proposed EPP+SMT design rules.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Testing in Support of the Development of EPP Plus SMT Design Method at ORNL (FY2021)

Experiments in support of the development of the integrated Elastic–Perfectly Plastic (EPP) plus Simplified Model Test (SMT) design methodology, referred to as the EPP+SMT method, continued in FY21. This report focuses on the methodology for developing the EPP+SMT creep-fatigue (CF) design curves at low strain ranges. The creep damage-based method and dissipated work-based method were used to evaluate the available CF data at the low strain range region. A set of failure criteria were determined, and a simple extrapolation method was developed to predict the CF life cycles at low strain ranges that are not accessible by experiments due to the extraordinarily long failure times at the low strain region (thousands to hundreds of thousands of years) and the inability of the test machine to control these small strain ranges due to the signal to noise issues. An experimental method with the concept of block-strain range CF testing was proposed to generate the information needed to extrapolate the CF design curves to low strain ranges. Based on this new testing approach, a preliminary EPP+SMT CF design curve was developed for Alloy 617 at 950°C with tension hold time of 100 s. The analysis in this report shows the potential of generating a set of EPP+SMT CF design curves with different hold times within a reasonable amount of time and testing effort. Based on such a progress, a hold time extrapolation procedure for low strain ranges will be developed in FY22 and critical testing will be carried out to complete the development of the EPP+SMT CF design curves for Alloy 617.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plasma Wall Interaction with 3-D Plasma Boundaries

The interaction of the edge plasma and the material surfaces is one of the most critical challenges on the path to harness fusion power as new, fundamental energy source. This challenge typically combines the thrust to reach high density, low temperature (detached) plasmas in front of the divertor target plates as well as understanding the plasma material interaction (PMI) in particular in this regime. The combination of both research thrusts represents an extraordinarily challenging subject encompassing spatial scales spanning nanometers to meters in all states of matter and across a broad energy range. Modeling capabilities, which help to interpret data from nowadays experiments and enable extrapolation to future devices are urgently required. This is in particular true for toroidal magnetic confinement devices with three-dimensional (3D) plasma boundaries. Such plasma boundary geometries occur in tokamaks, when small amplitude magnetic perturbations are used to stabilize the unruly edge plasma or in stellarators, that are inherently 3D plasma confinement devices. In this project, the impact of 3D plasma boundaries on the plasma material interaction (PMI) was assessed. This work focused on plasma boundary conditions, in which high-density conditions at the material surfaces yield mitigation of the otherwise immense heat and particle loads that these materials would see. These so-called high recycling and eventually detached plasma regimes are of great interest for future reactor operation. In the project, key features that are unique to 3D boundaries were explored in comparison to canonically assumed axisymmetric plasma edge situations in tokamaks. In particular, the relevance of the 3D boundary situation in the extrapolation to the plasma boundary solution at ITER, the next step fusion energy experiment under construction as a multi-national, world-wide large-science experiment in southern France, has been explored. The EMC3-EIRENE plasma edge fluid and kinetic neutral transport code has been advanced to cope with the challenging and unprecedented conditions in the ITER boundary plasma including 3D fields that are planned to be used to suppress harmful edge instabilities, the so-called edge localized modes. This is a vital integration challenge for ITER and the results from this grant have provide a leading capability for this assessment. It was shown that the detachment process in a 3D edge solution for ITER follows the recycling regimes that are known from axisymmetric solutions, but that multiple plasma exhaust channels connected to the material surfaces are established which feature individual recycling characteristics. Because these channels touch the material surfaces in the divertor in a 3D geometry, the compatibility with the plasma material interaction (PMI), including erosion and impurity generation has been found to be an important part of the integration challenge. To address this, the fully 3D plasma material interaction code ERO2 has been adapted to these ITER specific geometries and a homogeneous mixing model was implemented, that allows to consider the mixing of Be and Was used at ITER in the PMI modeling. This model enhancement has been used to study non-local migration of Be in the JET ITER like wall configuration and it has been shown that with this model such complex migration processes in ITER relevant plasma shapes and with ITER relevant plasma boundary conditions can be addressed. The combined modeling approach using EMC3-EIRENE as a plasma boundary transport code and the ERO2 specialized PMI model will be an asset for the continued preparations of ITER operation as well as for Fusion Pilot Plant efforts that have emerged in the U.S. during the evolution of this grant. The predictive capability of this numerical tool has been validated at the DIII-D US national fusion facility. Here, dedicated plasma edge diagnostics were implemented to measure the impurity household around a 3D edge plasma during ELM suppression by 3D fields. Dedicated experiments with local material probes using these diagnostics and the state-of-the-art suite of boundary measurements at DIII-D have shown that the 3D perturbation of the plasma edge that is excreted by such 3D control fields yield a perturbation of the plasma boundary flux structure and hence also of the resulting PMI. The 3D boundary plasma is composed out of helical magnetic flux channels that intersect the divertor targets at an angle relative to the main guiding field, i.e., the toroidal magnetic field component of the tokamak. A similar effect has been measured as well on limiter surfaces during the startup campaign at the new stellarator experiment Wendelstein 7-X. These experiments ad initial analysis with the ERO plasma material interaction model, suggested that the place of erosion for a given particle from the surface and its re-deposition can be different in such 3D field geometries yielding potentially a significant level of net-erosion. This is not the case for axisymmetric solutions, where it was shown in the past that the eroded particles are effectively re-deposited into gaps produced by erosion at the same position and hence the net-erosion levels are small. For ITER, the quest to suppress the ELMs and at the same time maintain the integrity of the divertor is an issue, which these fundamental findings will help to resolve. The coupling of this work to the extrapolation in the ITER program has been addressed by both the PI and the lead numerical scientist being ITER Science Fellows in the duration of the contract and forward. A second focus in the exploration of 3D boundary effects on tokamaks and stellarators has been set on the measurement of helium exhaust features with such 3D fields. This is important because He represents the ash of the fusion process and needs to be exhausted. It was shown that 3D field application compatible with suppression of ELMs yields an increase of the helium exhaust performance. The ratio of the effective helium confinement time over the energy confinement time was reduced by almost 50% which demonstrated that the impact of helium accumulation in the plasma core with respect to the confinement of energy to sustain the fusion reaction is significantly improved with such 3D control fields. It was shown that this is the case for tokamaks as well as stellarators. At the Large helical Device in Japan, a similar enhancement of the helium exhaust features when small amplitude additional 3D fields were applied was measured. This is an important additional function of 3D field application and its impact on ITER is presently being studied in combination with investigations of helium exhaust in 3D field geometries of stellarator devices.

3D plasma edge transport↗
DOE OSTI2023

Report on FY 2023 Research and Development on Specially Designed Creep-fatigue Experiments on Alloy 617 in Support of Improving Creep-fatigue Evaluation Approaches

Experimental and numerical studies in support of developing the integrated Elastic–Perfectly Plastic (EPP) plus Simplified Model Test (SMT) design methodology, referred to as the EPP+SMT method, continued in FY 2023. This report focuses on the methods for extrapolating the EPP+SMT creep-fatigue life curves at long hold times and low strain ranges at elevated temperatures. In this work, the available uniaxial creep-fatigue failure data on Alloy 617 at temperatures of 950°C and 850°C were analyzed to provide a guidance on the development of the extrapolation method and the creep-fatigue failure criteria. A viscoplastic constitutive model for Alloy 617 was adopted to extrapolate the mechanical responses to low strain ranges and long hold times. A set of design curves of Alloy 617 at temperatures of 950°C, 850°C, and 800°C with tensile hold times of 1 hr, 100 hr, and 1,000 hr are developed. Furthermore, creep-fatigue testing on two notch specimen geometries, shallow-notch and sharp V-notch, on Alloy 617 was performed 950°C to understand the multiaxial stress relaxation behavior. The experimental and numerical results on the notch specimens were compared with those on the standard uniaxial smooth bar specimens. The effect of multi-axial stress state combined with elastic follow-up on the stress relaxation behavior was investigated in this report.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Neural Network Solution of Point Kinetics Equations for a Nuclear Reactor Digital Twin

A digital twin (DT) for nuclear reactor monitoring can be implemented using either a differential equations-based physics model or a data-driven machine learning model. The challenge of a physics-model-based DT consists of achieving sufficient model fidelity to represent a complex experimental system, whereas the challenge of a data-driven DT consists of extensive training requirements and a potential lack of predictive ability. We investigate the performance of a hybrid approach, which is based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that encode fundamental physical laws into the loss function of the neural network. We develop a PINN model to solve the point kinetic equations (PKEs), which are time-dependent, stiff, nonlinear, ordinary differential equations that constitute a nuclear reactor reduced-order model under the approximation of ignoring spatial dependence of the neutron flux. The PINN model solution of PKEs is developed to monitor the start-up transient of Purdue University Reactor Number One (PUR-1) using experimental parameters for the reactivity feedback schedule and the neutron source. The results demonstrate strong agreement between the PINN solution and finite difference numerical solution of PKEs. We investigate PINNs performance in both data interpolation and extrapolation. For the test cases considered, the extrapolation errors are comparable to those of interpolation predictions. Extrapolation accuracy decreases with increasing time interval.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ch3MS-RF: a random forest model for chemical characterization and improved quantification of unidentified atmospheric organics detected by chromatography–mass spectrometry techniques

Abstract. The chemical composition of ambient organic aerosols plays a critical role in driving their climate and health-relevant properties and holds important clues to the sources and formation mechanisms of secondary aerosol material. In most ambient atmospheric environments, this composition remains incompletely characterized, with the number of identifiable species consistently outnumbered by those that have no mass spectral matches in the literature or the National Institute of Standards and Technology/National Institutes of Health/Environmental Protection Agency (NIST/NIH/EPA) mass spectral databases, making them nearly impossible to definitively identify. This creates significant challenges in utilizing the full analytical capabilities of techniques which separate and generate spectra for complex environmental samples. In this work, we develop the use of machine learning techniques to quantify and characterize novel, or unidentifiable, organic material. This work introduces Ch3MS-RF (Chemical Characterization by Chromatography–Mass Spectrometry Random Forest Modeling), an open-source, R-based software tool, for efficient machine-learning-enabled characterization of compounds separated in chromatography–mass spectrometry applications but not identifiable by comparison to mass spectral databases. A random forest model is trained and tested on a known 130 component representative external standard to predict the response factors of novel environmental organics based on position in volatility–polarity space and mass spectrum, enabling the reproducible, efficient, and optimized quantification of novel environmental species. Quantification accuracy on a reserved 20 % test set randomly split from the external standard compound list indicates that random forest modeling significantly outperforms the commonly used methods in both precision and accuracy, with a median response factor percent error of −2 %, for modeled response factors, compared to > 15 %, for typically used proxy assignment-based methods. Chemical properties modeling, evaluated on the same reserved 20 % test set and an extrapolation set of species identified in ambient organic aerosol samples collected in the Amazon rainforest, also demonstrate robust performance. Extrapolation set property prediction mean absolute errors for carbon number, oxygen to carbon ratio (O : C), average carbon oxidation state (OSc‾), and vapor pressure are 1.8, 0.15, 0.25, and 1.0 (log(atm)), respectively. Extrapolation set out-of-sample R2 for all properties modeled are above 0.75, with the exception of vapor pressure. While predictive performance for vapor pressure is less robust compared to the other chemical properties modeled, random-forest-based modeling was significantly more accurate than other commonly used methods of vapor pressure prediction, decreasing the mean vapor pressure prediction error to 0.24 (log(atm)) from 0.55 (log(atm)) (chromatography-based vapor pressure prediction) and 1.2 (log(atm)) (chemical formula-based vapor pressure prediction). The random forest model significantly advances an untargeted analysis of the full scope of chemical speciation yielded by two-dimensional gas chromatography (GCxGC-MS) techniques and can be applied to gas chromatography coupled with electron ionization mass spectrometry (GC-MS) as well. It enables the accurate estimation of key chemical properties commonly utilized in the atmospheric chemistry community, which may be used to more efficiently identify important tracers for further individual analysis and to characterize compound populations uniquely formed under specific ambient conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The suitability of differentiable, physics-informed machine learning hydrologic models for ungauged regions and climate change impact assessment

As a genre of physics-informed machine learning, differentiable process-based hydrologic models (abbreviated as δ or delta models) with regionalized deep-network-based parameterization pipelines were recently shown to provide daily streamflow prediction performance closely approaching that of state-of-the-art long short-term memory (LSTM) deep networks. Meanwhile, δ models provide a full suite of diagnostic physical variables and guaranteed mass conservation. Here, we ran experiments to test (1) their ability to extrapolate to regions far from streamflow gauges and (2) their ability to make credible predictions of long-term (decadal-scale) change trends. We evaluated the models based on daily hydrograph metrics (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, etc.) and predicted decadal streamflow trends. For prediction in ungauged basins (PUB; randomly sampled ungauged basins representing spatial interpolation), δ models either approached or surpassed the performance of LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, depending on the meteorological forcing data used. They presented a comparable trend performance to LSTM for annual mean flow and high flow but worse trends for low flow. For prediction in ungauged regions (PUR; regional holdout test representing spatial extrapolation in a highly data-sparse scenario), δ models surpassed LSTM in daily hydrograph metrics, and their advantages in mean and high flow trends became prominent. In addition, an untrained variable, evapotranspiration, retained good seasonality even for extrapolated cases. The δ models' deep-network-based parameterization pipeline produced parameter fields that maintain remarkably stable spatial patterns even in highly data-scarce scenarios, which explains their robustness. Combined with their interpretability and ability to assimilate multi-source observations, the δ models are strong candidates for regional and global-scale hydrologic simulations and climate change impact assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1971

Crime prediction modeling

A study of techniques for the prediction of crime in the City of Los Angeles was conducted. Alternative approaches to crime prediction (causal, quasicausal, associative, extrapolative, and pattern-recognition models) are discussed, as is the environment within which predictions were desired for the immediate application. The decision was made to use time series (extrapolative) models to produce the desired predictions. The characteristics of the data and the procedure used to choose equations for the extrapolations are discussed. The usefulness of different functional forms (constant, quadratic, and exponential forms) and of different parameter estimation techniques (multiple regression and multiple exponential smoothing) are compared, and the quality of the resultant predictions is assessed.

Source record↗