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At least 271 records · Page 15

Observation and Interpretation of Energetic Neutral Hydrogen Atoms from the December 5, 2006 Solar Flare

We discuss observations of energetic neutral hydrogen atoms (ENAs) from a solar flare/coronal mass ejection event reported by Mewaldt et al. (2009). The observations were made during the 5 December 2006 X9 solar flare, located at E79, by the Low Energy Telescopes (LETs) on STEREO A and B. Prior to the arrival of the main solar energetic particle (SEP) event at Earth, both LETs observed a sudden burst of 1.6 to 15 MeV particles arriving from the Sun. The derived solar emission profile, arrival directions, and energy spectrum all show that the <5 MeV particles were due to energetic neutral hydrogen atoms produced by either flare or shock-accelerated protons. RHESSI measurements of the 2.2-MeV gamma-ray line provide an estimate of the number of interacting flare-accelerated protons in this event, which leads to an improved estimate of ENA production by flare-accelerated protons. CME-driven shock acceleration is also considered. Taking into account ENA losses, we conclude that the observed ENAs must have been produced in the high corona at heliocentric distances .2 solar radii.

Barghouty, A. F.↗

Stress Promotion of the 1958 Mw∼7.8 Fairweather Fault Earthquake and Others in Southeast Alaska by Glacial Isostatic Adjustment and Inter-earthquake Stress Transfer

We assess how recent glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) and inter-earthquake stress transfer modulated the state of stress on major faults in Southeast Alaska, and how these effects may have influenced recent large and moderate earthquakes. The Glacier Bay Icefield has lost >3,000 km3 of ice since ca. 1770, with ice thinning up to 1.5 km, and the rest of southeast Alaska has been deglaciating since ca. 1900. The resulting GIA response in the solid earth produces present-day surface uplift rates of up to ∼4 cm/yr, among the fastest on Earth. This rapid deformation occurs directly alongside and atop the Fairweather Fault, which accommodates 4–5 cm/yr of right-lateral motion through slip in frequent large earthquakes, recently including a Mw∼7.8 earthquake in 1958. We find that the 1958 earthquake nucleated very close to the location of maximum GIA-induced Coulomb stress increase on the Fairweather Fault between 1770 and 1958 (estimated at ∼0.2–0.6 MPa), on the only section of fault where GIA-induced stress changes had involved both right-lateral shearing and unclamping. The September 10, 1899 Mw∼8.1 Yakutat Bay earthquake also promoted failure on at least the northwest part of the eventual 1958 rupture. In turn, the 1899 and 1958 earthquakes and GIA promoted failure along the St. Elias compressional margin, the site of a Mw∼7.4 event in 1979. While rapid tectonic loading is very likely the main driver of earthquakes in southeast Alaska, we estimate that 23 of 30 instrumentally constrained Mw ≥ 5.0 earthquakes in this region were also promoted by post-1770 GIA.

Chris Rollins↗

FORTE Measurements of Global Optical Lightning Waveforms and Implications for Optical Lightning Detection

Lightning processes generate a diverse collection of optical pulses from current traversing the lightning channels. These signals are then broadened spatially and temporally via scattering in the clouds. The resulting waveforms measured from space with instruments like the photodiode detector (PDD) on the Fast On-orbit Recording of Transient Events (FORTE) satellite have a variety of shapes. In this study, we use coincident optical and Radio-Frequency measurements to document the properties of optical PDD waveforms associated with different types of lightning, estimate delays from scattering in the clouds, and comment on how pulse shape impacts optical lightning detection. We find that the attributes of optical pulses recorded by the PDD are consistent with prior studies, but vary globally and with event amplitude. The most powerful lightning tends to be single-peaked with faster rise times (median: ~100 µs) and shorter effective widths (median: ~400 µs) than normal lightning. Particularly dim events, meanwhile, include cases of broad optical waveforms with sustained optical emission throughout the PDD record, which the pixelated FORTE Lightning Location System (LLS) instrument has difficulty detecting. We propose that this is due to the optical signal being divided between individual LLS pixels that are each, individually, not bright enough to trigger. We use PDD waveforms and Monte Carlo radiative transfer modeling to demonstrate that increasing the temporal and spatial resolution of a pixelated lightning imager will make it more difficult to detect these broad/dim pulses as their energy becomes divided between additional pixels/integration frames.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Classification and Localization of Fracture-Hit Events in Low-Frequency Distributed Acoustic Sensing Strain Rate with Convolutional Neural Networks

Summary Distributed acoustic sensing (DAS) has been used in the oil and gas industry as an advanced technology for surveillance and diagnostics. Operators use DAS to monitor hydraulic fracturing activities, examine well stimulation efficacy, and estimate complex fracture system geometries. Particularly, low-frequency DAS can detect geomechanical events such as fracture hits because hydraulic fractures propagate and create strain rate variations in the rock. Analysis of DAS data today is mostly done post-job and subject to interpretation methods. However, the continuous and dense data stream generated live by DAS poses the opportunity for more efficient and accurate real-time data-driven analysis. The objective of this study is to develop a machine learning-based workflow that can identify and locate fracture-hit events in simulated strain rate responses correlated with low-frequency DAS data. In this paper, “fracture hit” refers to a hydraulic fracture originating from a stimulated well intersecting an offset well. We start with building a single fracture propagation model to produce strain rate patterns observed at a hypothetical monitoring well. This model is used to generate two sets of strain rate responses with one set containing fracture-hit events. The labeled synthetic data are then used to train a custom convolutional neural network (CNN) model for identifying the presence of fracture-hit events. The same model is trained again for locating the event with the output layer of the model replaced with linear units. We achieved near-perfect predictions for both event classification and localization. These promising results prove the feasibility of using CNN for real-time event detection from fiber-optic sensing data. Additionally, we use edge detection techniques to recognize fracture-hit event patterns in strain rate images. The fracture-hit location can be identified using recognized pixels in the image. The accuracy of edge detection-based location identification is also plausible, but edge detection is dependent on the assumption of pattern shape and image quality, hence it is less robust compared to CNN models. This comparison further supports the need for CNN applications in image-based real-time fiber-optic sensing event detection.

Engineering↗

A gigantic coronal jet ejected from a compact active region in a coronal hole

A gigantic coronal jet greater than 3 x 10(exp 5) km long (nearly half the solar radius) has been found with the soft X-ray telescope (SXT) on board the solar X-ray satellite, Yohkoh. The jet was ejected on 1992 January 11 from an 'anemone-type' active region (AR) appearing in a coronal hole and is one of the largest coronal X-ray jets observed so far by SXT. This gigantic jet is the best observed example of many other smaller X-ray jets, because the spatial structures of both the jet and the AR located at its base are more easily resolved. The range of apparent translational velocities of the bulk of the jet was between 90 and 240 km s(exp -1), with the corresponding kinetic energy estimated to be of order of 10(exp 28) ergs. A detailed analysis reveals that the jet was associated with a loop brightening (a small flare) that occurred in the active region. Several features of this observation suggest and are consistent with a magnetic reconnection mechanism for the production of such a 'jet-loop-brightening' event.

Shibata, K.↗

Cometary Nuclei and Tidal Disruption: The Geologic Record of Crater Chains on Callisto and Ganymede

Prominent crater chains on Ganymede and Callisto are most likely the impact scars of comets tidally disrupted by Jupiter and are not secondary crater chains. We have examined the morphology of these chains in detail in order to place constraints on the properties of the comets that formed them and the disruption process. In these chains, intercrater spacing varies by no more than a factor of 2 and the craters within a given chain show almost no deviation from linearity (although the chains themselves are on gently curved small circles). All of these crater chains occur on or very near the Jupiter-facing hemisphere. For a given chain, the estimated masses of the fragments that formed each crater vary by no more than an order of magnitude. The mean fragment masses for all the chains vary by over four orders of magnitude (W. B. McKinnon and P. M. Schenk 1995, Geophys. Res. Lett. 13, 1829-1832), however. The mass of the parent comet for each crater chain is not correlated with the number of fragments produced during disruption but is correlated with the mean mass of the fragments produced in a given disruption event. Also, the larger fragments are located near the center of each chain. All of these characteristics are consistent with those predicted by disruption simulations based on the rubble pile cometary nucleus model (in which nuclei are composed on numerous small fragments weakly bound by self-gravity), and with those observed in Comet D/Shoemaker-Levy 9. Similar crater chains have not been found on the other icy satellites, but the impact record of disrupted comets on Callisto and Ganymede indicates that disruption events occur within the Jupiter system roughly once every 200 to 400 years.

Schenk, Paul M.↗

Seismoacoustic Analysis of the Large Surface Explosion Coupling Experiment Using a Large- N Seismic Array

Seismoacoustic signals at local distance (<~10 km) are widely used as important constraints on source parameters for near-surface events, yet the seismoacoustic wave generation and energy partitioning are not fully understood. Spatially dense sensors could provide observations in high resolution to capture the full wavefield for better understanding wave propagation and improving source estimation. Recently, spatially dense observations of the local seismoacoustic wavefield produced by a pair of 1-ton surface explosions have been recorded using a large-N seismic array. This large-N array consists of 446 geophones and covers an area of approximately 2×2.5 km 2 . The two surface explosions occur at the same location but at different times with different atmospheric conditions. Both seismic and air–ground coupled acoustic waves from the two surface explosions are well observed. Analyses of signals recorded by the large-N seismic array show different acoustic wave speed and amplitude for the two explosions. A strong spatial variability in acoustic wave speed and amplitude for each explosion is also observed. Finally, the observations suggest the important role of local atmosphere state on wave propagation and source estimation and demonstrate how the use of a large-N capability can improve characterization of the propagation medium and source.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Lunar Geophysical Network Mission

Overarching Principles: Must be better than Apollo (coverage, duration, instrument performance); Learn from the Apollo experience. Lunar Geophysical Network (LGN) New Frontiers (NF)-class mission, as part of the NF-5 call. “This mission consists of several identical landers distributed across the lunar surface, each carrying geophysical instrumentation. The primary science objectives are to characterize the Moon’s internal structure, seismic activity, global heat flow budget, bulk composition, & magnetic field.” Global distribution of multiple stations. Each station should contain a seismometer, heat flow probe, electromagnetic sounder, laser retroreflector (lunar nearside). Each station must be long-lived (e.g., approximately10 years)to allow other stations (from other countries?) to be integrated with the anchor nodes to form the International Lunar Network. Why LGN? Planetary Science: Moon represents an end-member in planetary evolution (large small body, small rocky planet); Primary planetary differentiation preserved; Key to understanding terrestrial planet initial differentiation. Lunar Science: Heat flow probes yield crustal heat budget estimates; Combined with EMS (ElectroMagnetic Sounding), the temperature profile of the deep interior can be modeled along with mineralogy; Seismic and LLR (Lunar Laser Ranging) data also yield structure and compositional information of the lunar interior; High fidelity data from LGN would enhance the usefulness of the GRAIL (Gravity Recovery and Interior Laboratory) and SELENE (Selenological and Engineering Explorer) gravity data. Human Exploration: LGN must be established prior to renewed human lunar activity - we do not know the exact locations or causes of the shallow moonquakes (SMQs) - the largest magnitude seismic events recorded by Apollo (1 event per year of magnitude greater than or equal to 5); Establishing surface infrastructure near SMQ epicenters must be avoided.

Neal, C. R.↗

Variability and Spectral Characteristics of Three Flaring Gamma-Ray Quasars Observed by VERITAS and Fermi-LAT

Flat-spectrum radio quasars (FSRQs) are the most luminous blazars at GeV energies but only rarely emit detectable fluxes of TeV gamma rays, typically during bright GeV flares. We explore the gamma-ray variability and spectral characteristics of three FSRQs that have been observed at GeV and TeV energies by Fermi-LAT and VERITAS, making use of almost 100 hr of VERITAS observations spread over 10 yr: 3C 279, PKS 1222+216, and Ton 599. We explain the GeV flux distributions of the sources in terms of a model derived from a stochastic differential equation describing fluctuations in the magnetic field in the accretion disk and estimate the timescales of magnetic flux accumulation and stochastic instabilities in their accretion disks. We identify distinct flares using a procedure based on Bayesian blocks and analyze their daily and subdaily variability and gamma-ray energy spectra. Using observations from VERITAS, as well as Fermi, Swift, and the Steward Observatory, we model the broadband spectral energy distributions of PKS 1222+216 and Ton 599 during very high energy (VHE)–detected flares in 2014 and 2017, respectively, strongly constraining the jet Doppler factors and gamma-ray emission region locations during these events. Finally, we place theoretical constraints on the potential production of PeV-scale neutrinos during these VHE flares.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

GRB 970616

The transient X-ray XTE source reported below by F. Marshall et al. lies in the error box of a gamma-ray burst seen by BATSE on June 16.757 UT. The Rapid Burst Response location, which was distributed through GRB Coordinates Network/BATSE Coordinates Distribution Network 20 minutes after the initial trigger, was: RA 01h2lm5ls, DEC -07dO9'.4 (J2000) with a 1 sigma error radius of 0.3 deg. statistical and approximately 2 deg. systematic. The burst was multi-peaked with a total duration of about 200 s. A maximum flux of 23.8 +/- 0.5 photons/CM logical and 2/s (above 20 keV) was measured 90 seconds after the trigger time, placing this event in the brightest 2% of all BATSE bursts. Its total fluence above 20 keV is estimated to be 4.01 +/- 0.14 x 10 -5 erg/cm logical and 2.

Connaughton, V.↗

Comparison of the KSC-ER Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Surveillance System (CGLSS) and the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network(TradeMark)(NLDN)

The NASA Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Air Force Eastern Range (ER) use data from two cloud-to-ground lightning detection networks, CGLSS and NLDN, during ground and launch operations at the KSC-ER. For these applications, it is very important to understand the location accuracy and detection efficiency of each network near the KSC-ER. If a cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning strike is missed or mis-located by even a small amount, the result could have significant safety implications, require expensive retests, or create unnecessary delays or scrubs in launches. Therefore, it is important to understand the performance of each lightning detection system in considerable detail. To evaluate recent upgrades in the CGLSS sensors in 2000 and the entire NLDN in 2002- 2003, we have compared. measurements provided by these independent networks in the summers of 2005 and 2006. Our analyses have focused on the fraction of first strokes reported individually and in-common by each network (flash detection efficiency), the spatial separation between the strike points reported by both networks (relative location accuracy), and the values of the estimated peak current, Ip, reported by each network. The results within 100 km of the KSC-ER show that the networks produce very similar values of Ip (except for a small scaling difference) and that the relative location accuracy is consistent with model estimates that give median values of 200-300m for the CGLSS and 600-700m for the NLDN in the region of the KSC-ER. Because of differences in the network geometries and sensor gains, the NLDN does not report 10-20% of the flashes that have a low Ip (2 kA < |Ip| < 16 kA), both networks report 99 % of the flashes that have intermediate values of Ip (16< |Ip| < 50 kA), and the CGLSS fails to report 20-30% of the high-current events (|Ip| >=0 kA).

Ward, Jennifer G.↗

Modeling Subsurface Explosions Recorded on a Distributed Fiber Optic Sensor

Fiber optic distributed acoustic sensors (DAS) are becoming a widely used tool for seismic sensing. Here we examine recordings of two subsurface chemical explosions, DAG-1 and DAG-3, each of which was about one metric ton (TNT equivalent), that were recorded from a helical fiber installed in two boreholes 80 m away from the source location. Several clear phases including the initial P wave, a weak S wave, and a surface reflected P wave are observed on the helical DAS data. We estimate a velocity model using arrival times measured from the fiber. The DAS waveform data were compared with colocated accelerometers at specific depths in both frequency and time domains. Furthermore, the spectra of the DAS data matched spectra estimated from the accelerometer records. Comparisons of observed waveform shape between the accelerometer records and the fiber measurements (strain-rate) show reasonable agreement except for the data near the event depth. The DAS data and the accelerometer agreed in relative amplitudes but we had difficulties in matching absolute amplitudes, possibly due to errors in metadata. Synthetic strain-rate waveforms were calculated using a 2D wavenumber algorithm and matched the waveform shape and relative amplitudes. In general, DAS is effective at recording strong ground motions at high spatial density. Comparison of the synthetic seismograms with observed data indicate that the waveforms are not consistent with a pure isotropic explosion source and that the observed S waves originate from very near the source region.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

WISP: Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies (Final Technical Report)

The complex interdependencies of cyber systems (sensors and communications), physical grids and associated electricity market operations make protecting electric power grids a significant challenge. The energy sector is constantly under new, targeted, advanced and dangerous cyber-attacks that have the potential to result in the loss of human life. These threats are further exacerbated by our need to modernize the grid. One focus of cyber security research in smart grids is the securing of the SCADA system through advanced intrusion detection systems (IDS) and bad data detection algorithms in state estimation. These methods either require full knowledge of the system topology and parameters or fail to understand the physical behaviors under attack. WISP (Watching grid Infrastructure Stealthily through Proxies) is designed to provide additional protection to the power grid using only publicly available data. In particular, WISP exploits the spatio-temporal nature of the real time locational marginal prices (LMPs), in conjunction with other information such as bids, weather, outages and load data to analyze anomalous power pricing behaviors and then correlate those observations to localize regions of interest and identify potential cyber events. WISP is non-intrusive as the tool is deployed as a service in the Cloud or on premise and provides reliable information to system operators for enhanced situational awareness, without impeding energy delivery functions. The WISP technology comprises three modules: the data-driven anomaly detection core, the vulnerability and risk analysis and the root cause analysis. The data-driven anomaly detection core performs the tasks of feature selection, anomaly detection and attack region localization. The vulnerability and risk analysis module provides system level information of the vulnerable variables and times, assisting the operators in selecting monitoring and protection nodes. The root cause analysis module takes the detection results and identifies potential operational conditions that contribute to the detected anomalies. In Phase I, we have demonstrated the feasibility and effectiveness of WISP. We developed a realistic electricity market simulator capable of generating normal and attack market data under various operational conditions. We developed a series of cyber-attack detection and analysis algorithms and evaluated them under multiple data sources. Finally, we integrated all modules into an end-to-end software, providing functions for data management, data analytics and visualization. Specifically, we have achieved: (i) real-time data acceptance from external utility interfaces with >99% acceptance rate; (ii) high performance anomaly detection algorithms with >98% detection accuracy and <0.1% false alarm rate; and (iii) ultra-low computing delay <50 milliseconds. Additionally, our team developed algorithms to identify the vulnerable variables in electricity market operations and root cause analysis functions to identify major contributors to the price spikes. These ancillary modules are necessary when deploying WISP in real world industry environment. In Phase II, we have demonstrated the effectiveness of WISP software on realistic largescale power systems. We performed red team testing for the Phase I WISP software and identified software vulnerabilities and implemented corresponding mitigation solutions. We adapted the electricity market simulator for the Texas synthetic 2000-bus system and generated datasets for the false data injection attacks. We created database and visualization interfaces for the Texas system and the ISO New England system. We performed software optimization in terms of operation efficiency, computing speed and detection accuracy. Finally, we tested the software on the Texas system and the ISO New England system and evaluated the detection performance. Overall, we achieved above 89% detection rate, below 3% false alarm rate and below 37 seconds of end-to-end detection delay.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Integrating Growth Stage Deficit Irrigation into a Process Based Crop Model

Current rates of agricultural water use are unsustainable in many regions, creating an urgent need to identify improved irrigation strategies for water limited areas. Crop models can be used to quantify plant water requirements, predict the impact of water shortages on yield, and calculate water productivity (WP) to link water availability and crop yields for economic analyses. Many simulations of crop growth and development, especially in regional and global assessments, rely on automatic irrigation algorithms to estimate irrigation dates and amounts. However, these algorithms are not well suited for water limited regions because they have simplistic irrigation rules, such as a single soil-moisture based threshold, and assume unlimited water. To address this constraint, a new modeling framework to simulate agricultural production in water limited areas was developed. The framework consists of a new automatic irrigation algorithm for the simulation of growth stage based deficit irrigation under limited seasonal water availability; and optimization of growth stage specific parameters. The new automatic irrigation algorithm was used to simulate maize and soybean in Gainesville, Florida, and first used to evaluate the sensitivity of maize and soybean simulations to irrigation at different growth stages and then to test the hypothesis that water productivity calculated using simplistic irrigation rules underestimates WP. In the first experiment, the effect of irrigating at specific growth stages on yield and irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE) in maize and soybean was evaluated. In the reproductive stages, IWUE tended to be higher than in the vegetative stages (e.g. IWUE was 18% higher than the well watered treatment when irrigating only during R3 in soybean), and when rainfall events were less frequent. In the second experiment, water productivity (WP) was significantly greater with optimized irrigation schedules compared to non-optimized irrigation schedules in water restricted scenarios. For example, the mean WP across 38 years of maize production was 1.1 kg/cu m for non-optimized irrigation schedules with 50 mm of seasonal available water and 2.1 kg/cu m optimized ion schedules, a 91% improvement in WP with optimized irrigation schedules. The framework described in this work could be used to estimate WP for regional to global assessments, as well as derive location specific irrigation guidance.

crop model↗

Deriving Lifetime Maps in the Time/Frequency Domain of Coherent Structures in the Turbulent Boundary Layer

The lifetimes of coherent structures are derived from data correlated over a 3 sensor array sampling streamwise sidewall pressure at high Reynolds number (> 10(exp 8)). The data were acquired at subsonic, transonic and supersonic speeds aboard a Tupolev Tu-144. The lifetimes are computed from a variant of the correlation length termed the lifelength. Characteristic lifelengths are estimated by fitting a Gaussian distribution to the sensors cross spectra and are shown to compare favorably with Efimtsov s prediction of correlation space scales. Lifelength distributions are computed in the time/frequency domain using an interval correlation technique on the continuous wavelet transform of the original time data. The median values of the lifelength distributions are found to be very close to the frequency averaged result. The interval correlation technique is shown to allow the retrieval and inspection of the original time data of each event in the lifelength distributions, thus providing a means to locate and study the nature of the coherent structure in the turbulent boundary layer. The lifelength data are converted to lifetimes using the convection velocity. The lifetime of events in the time/frequency domain are displayed in Lifetime Maps. The primary purpose of the paper is to validate these new analysis techniques so that they can be used with confidence to further characterize the behavior of coherent structures in the turbulent boundary layer.

Palumbo, Dan↗

An Amplitude-Based Estimation Method for International Space Station (ISS) Leak Detection and Localization Using Acoustic Sensor Networks

The development of a robust and efficient leak detection and localization system within a space station environment presents a unique challenge. A plausible approach includes the implementation of an acoustic sensor network system that can successfully detect the presence of a leak and determine the location of the leak source. Traditional acoustic detection and localization schemes rely on the phase and amplitude information collected by the sensor array system. Furthermore, the acoustic source signals are assumed to be airborne and far-field. Likewise, there are similar applications in sonar. In solids, there are specialized methods for locating events that are used in geology and in acoustic emission testing that involve sensor arrays and depend on a discernable phase front to the received signal. These methods are ineffective if applied to a sensor detection system within the space station environment. In the case of acoustic signal location, there are significant baffling and structural impediments to the sound path and the source could be in the near-field of a sensor in this particular setting.

Tian, Jialin↗

Consumer Benefits of Clean Energy: The resilience value of residential solar + storage systems in the continental U.S.

Meeting national and state decarbonization goals requires a transition to clean energy technologies. Energy efficiency, demand flexibility, renewable energy and storage can reduce consumers’ electricity bills, lower total electricity system costs, and provide health and resilience benefits. Berkeley Lab developed a series of briefs that explore these consumer benefits of a clean energy transition. Clean energy resources that are located behind the meter have the potential to benefit the hosting customers by providing affordability, environmental, and reliability and resilience value. Solar plus storage systems (PVESS) are clean energy resources that can supply backup power without requiring fuel resupply or increasing local emissions. This report examines the regional value of PVESS for resilience by calculating a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) that considers the annual resiliency benefits of PVESS and the annualized cost of the investment. In addition, we estimate the expected technical mitigation potential of PVESS systems at the county-level to these expected events, and characterize the customer interruption costs by determining the value of lost load at the state level.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Rain-rate data base development and rain-rate climate analysis

The single-year rain-rate distribution data available within the archives of Consultative Committee for International Radio (CCIR) Study Group 5 were compiled into a data base for use in rain-rate climate modeling and for the preparation of predictions of attenuation statistics. The four year set of tip-time sequences provided by J. Goldhirsh for locations near Wallops Island were processed to compile monthly and annual distributions of rain rate and of event durations for intervals above and below preset thresholds. A four-year data set of tropical rain-rate tip-time sequences were acquired from the NASA TRMM program for 30 gauges near Darwin, Australia. They were also processed for inclusion in the CCIR data base and the expanded data base for monthly observations at the University of Oklahoma. The empirical rain-rate distributions (edfs) accepted for inclusion in the CCIR data base were used to estimate parameters for several rain-rate distribution models: the lognormal model, the Crane two-component model, and the three parameter model proposed by Moupfuma. The intent of this segment of the study is to obtain a limited set of parameters that can be mapped globally for use in rain attenuation predictions. If the form of the distribution can be established, then perhaps available climatological data can be used to estimate the parameters rather than requiring years of rain-rate observations to set the parameters. The two-component model provided the best fit to the Wallops Island data but the Moupfuma model provided the best fit to the Darwin data.

Crane, Robert K.↗