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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2021

Severity of Drought and Heatwave Crop Losses Tripled Over the Last Five Decades in Europe

Extreme weather disasters (EWDs) can jeopardize domestic food supply and disrupt commodity markets. However, historical impacts on European crop production associated with droughts, heatwaves, floods, and cold waves are not well understood—especially in view of potential adverse trends in the severity of impacts due to climate change. Here, we combine observational agricultural data (FAOSTAT) with an extreme weather disaster database (EM-DAT) between 1961 and 2018 to evaluate European crop production responses to EWD. Using a compositing approach (superposed epoch analysis), we show that historical droughts and heatwaves reduced European cereal yields on average by 9% and 7.3%, respectively, associated with a wide range of responses (inter-quartile range +2% to −23%; +2% to −17%). Non-cereal yields declined by 3.8% and 3.1% during the same set of events. Cold waves led to cereal and non-cereal yield declines by 1.3% and 2.6%, while flood impacts were marginal and not statistically significant. Production losses are largely driven by yield declines, with no significant changes in harvested area. While all four event frequencies significantly increased over time, the severity of heatwave and drought impacts on crop production roughly tripled over the last 50 years, from −2.2% (1964–1990) to −7.3% (1991–2015). Drought-related cereal production losses are shown to intensify by more than 3% yr−1. Both the trend in frequency and severity can possibly be explained by changes in the vulnerability of the exposed system and underlying climate change impacts.

Extreme weather disasters↗
NASA NTRS1993

Solar flares and avalanches in driven dissipative systems

The contention of Lu and Hamilton (1991) that the energy release process in solar flares can be understood as avalanches of many small reconnection events is further developed. The dynamics of the complex magnetized plasma of solar active regions is modeled with a simple driven dissipative system, consisting of a vector field with local instabilities that cause rapid diffusion of the field. It is argued that the avalanches in this model are analogous to solar flares. The distributions of avalanches in this model are compared with the solar flare frequency distributions obtained from ISEE 3/ICE satellite observations. Quantitative agreement is found with the energy, peak luminosity, and duration distributions over four orders of magnitude in flare energy, from the largest flares down to the completeness limit of the observations. It is predicted that the power-law solar flare frequency distributions will be found to continue downward with the same logarithmic slopes to an energy of about 3 x 10 exp 25 ergs and duration of about 0.3 s, with deviations from power-law behavior below these values.

Lu, Edward T.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Can Large Scale Volcanism Explain the Heat-Death of Venus (and Venus-like worlds?)

One of the fundamental questions about Venus is whether it ever had a habitable period in its distant past. If it did have such a period how did Venus get from a temperate state to its present day hot-house? Recent studies have demonstrated that increasing solar luminosity through time is an unlikely pathway for Venus even if that is one way for Earth to end up in a runaway greenhouse state. Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs; like that of the Siberian Traps) have been responsible for the End Permian mass extinction and other dramatic climate change events throughout Earth’s history. We investigate the hypothesis that overlapping Large Igneous Provinces could have driven Venus from a temperate to a runaway greenhouse state. We look at the LIP record in Earth history and the probability for overlapping LIP events as a proxy.

Venus↗
NASA NTRS2022

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation, and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Wintertime Barents–Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents–Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents–Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows that strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, although turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6–10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) or El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2005

Future Visions for Scientific Human Exploration

Today, humans explore deep-space locations such as Mars, asteroids, and beyond, vicariously here on Earth, with noteworthy success. However, to achieve the revolutionary breakthroughs that have punctuated the history of science since the dawn of the Space Age has always required humans as "the discoverers," as Daniel Boorstin contends in this book of the same name. During Apollo 17, human explorers on the lunar surface discovered the "genesis rock," orange glass, and humans in space revamped the optically crippled Hubble Space Telescope to enable some of the greatest astronomical discoveries of all time. Science-driven human exploration is about developing the opportunities for such events, perhaps associated with challenging problems such as whether we can identify life beyond Earth within the universe. At issue, however, is how to safely insert humans and the spaceflight systems required to allow humans to operate as they do best in the hostile environment of deep space. The first issue is minimizing the problems associated with human adaptation to the most challenging aspects of deep space space radiation and microgravity (or non-Earth gravity). One solution path is to develop technologies that allow for minimization of the exposure time of people to deep space, as was accomplished in Apollo. For a mission to the planet Mars, this might entail new technological solutions for in-space propulsion that would make possible time-minimized transfers to and from Mars. The problem of rapid, reliable in-space transportation is challenged by the celestial mechanics of moving in space and the so-called "rocket equation." To travel to Mars from Earth in less than the time fuel-minimizing trajectories allow (i.e., Hohmann transfers) requires an exponential increase in the amount of fuel. Thus, month-long transits would require a mass of fuel as large as the dry mass of the ISS, assuming the existence of continuous acceleration engines. This raises the largest technological stumbling block to moving humans on site as deep-space explorers, delivering the masses required for human spaceflight systems to LEO or other Earth orbital vantage points using the existing or projected fleet of Earth-to-orbit (ETO) launch vehicles. Without a return to Saturn V-class boosters or an alternate path, one cannot imagine emplacing the masses that would be required for any deep-space voyage without a prohibitive number of Shuttle-class launches. One futurist solution might involve mass launch systems that could be used to move the consumables, including fuel, water, food, and building materials, to LEO in pieces rather than launching integrated systems. This approach would necessitate the development of robotic assembly and fuel-storage systems in Earth orbit, but could provide for a natural separation of low-value cargo (e.g., fuel, water).

Garvin, James↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risks of Synchronized Low Yields Are Underestimated in Climate and Crop Model Projections

Simultaneous harvest failures across major crop-producing regions are a threat to global food security. Concurrent weather extremes driven by a strongly meandering jet stream could trigger such events, but so far this has not been quantified. Specifically, the ability of state-of-the art crop and climate models to adequately reproduce such high impact events is a crucial component for estimating risks to global food security. Here we find an increased likelihood of concurrent low yields during summers featuring meandering jets in observations and models. While climate models accurately simulate atmospheric patterns, associated surface weather anomalies and negative effects on crop responses are mostly underestimated in bias-adjusted simulations. Given the identified model biases, future assessments of regional and concurrent crop losses from meandering jet states remain highly uncertain. Our results suggest that model-blind spots for such high-impact but deeply-uncertain hazards have to be anticipated and accounted for in meaningful climate risk assessments.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interactive Framework to Support Open Model-Data Validation Efforts at the CCMC

Validation of models using observation data has been a central activity at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) over more than a decade. The Comprehensive Assessment of Models and Events using Library Tools (CAMEL) framework is a database-driven implementation of the interactive analysis of model-data comparisons that simultaneously provides a view across a multitude of locations and time periods. CAMEL thus extends the single-location or single-trajectory timeseries data comparison capabilities provided by the CCMC online visualization that formed the backbone of initial validation efforts. We demonstrate CAMEL capabilities for an example application to study Neutral Density in the upper atmosphere among comparisons in the heliosphere, the Earth’s radiation belt, magnetosphere, and ionosphere-thermosphere-mesosphere domains.

Lutz Rastaetter↗
NASA NTRS2013

Do Solar Coronal Holes Affect the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events?

The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E (is) approx. 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds.

Coronal mass ejections - low coronal signatures↗
NASA NTRS2004

Solar Flares, Type III Radio Bursts, CMEs, and Energetic Particles

Despite the fact that it has been well known since the earliest observations that solar energetic particle events are well associated with solar flares it is often considered that the association is not physically significant. Instead, in large events, the particles are considered to be only accelerated at a shock driven by the coronal mass ejection (CME) that is also always present. If particles are accelerated in the associated flare, it is claimed that such particles do not find access to open field lines and therefore do not escape from the low corona. However recent work has established that long lasting type III radio bursts extending to low frequencies are associated with all prompt solar particle events. Such bursts establish the presence of open field lines. Furthermore, tracing the radio bursts to the lowest frequencies, generated near the observer, shows that the radio producing electrons gain access to a region of large angular extent. It is likely that the electrons undergo cross field transport and it seems reasonable that ions do also. Such observations indicate that particle propagation in the inner heliosphere is not yet fully understood. They also imply that the contribution of flare particles in major particle events needs to be properly addressed.

Cane, H. V.↗
NASA NTRS2022

The hierarchical organization of autocatalytic reaction networks and its relevance to origin of life

Abiogenesis has long been suspected to require that chemical reaction networks contain multiple autocatalytic cores, but little is known about what features of these networks allow for the gradual accretion of complexity. To identify realistic scenarios for the emergence of life-like properties, we develop the concept of a seed-dependent autocatalytic system (SDAS), which is a subnetwork that can autocatalytically self-maintain given a flux of food, but cannot be initiated by food alone. Rather, initiation of SDASs requires the transient introduction of chemical “seeds”. We show that, depending on the topological relationship of SDASs in a chemical reaction network, a food-driven system can accrete complexity in a historically contingent manner, governed by rare seeding events. We develop new algorithms for detecting and analyzing SDASs in chemical reaction databases and describe parallels between multi-SDAS networks and biological ecosystems. Applying our algorithms to both an abiotic reaction network and a biochemical one, each driven by a set of simple food chemicals, we detect SDASs that are organized as trophic tiers, of which the higher tier can be seeded by relatively simple chemicals if the lower tier is already activated. This indicates that sequential activation of trophically organized SDASs by seed chemicals that are not much more complex than what already exist could be a mechanism of gradual complexification from relatively simple abiotic reactions to more complex life-like systems. Interestingly, in both reaction networks, higher-tier SDASs include chemicals that might alter emergent features of chemical systems and could serve as early targets of selection. Our analysis provides computational tools for analyzing very large chemical/biochemical reaction networks and suggests new approaches to studying abiogenesis in the lab.

Zhen Peng↗
NASA NTRS2022

Turbulent Heat Flux, Downward Longwave Radiation and Large-Scale Atmospheric Circulation Associated with the Wintertime Barents-Kara Sea Extreme Sea Ice Loss Events

We investigate wintertime extreme sea ice loss events on synoptic to subseasonal time scales over the Barents-Kara Sea, where the largest sea ice variability is located. Consistent with previous studies, extreme sea ice loss events are associated with moisture intrusions over the Barents-Kara Sea, which are driven by the large-scale atmospheric circulation. In addition to the role of downward longwave radiation associated with moisture intrusions, which is emphasized by previous studies, our analysis shows strong turbulent heat fluxes are associated with extreme sea ice melting events, with both turbulent sensible and latent heat fluxes contributing, though turbulent sensible heat fluxes dominate. Our analysis also shows that these events are connected to tropical convective anomalies. A dipole pattern of convective anomalies with enhanced convection over the Maritime Continent and suppressed convection over the central to eastern Pacific is consistently detected about 6 to 10 days prior to extreme sea ice loss events. This pattern is associated with either the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) or El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Composites show that extreme sea ice loss events are connected to tropical convection via Rossby wave propagation in the midlatitudes. However, tropical convective anomalies alone are not sufficient to trigger extreme sea ice loss events, suggesting that extratropical variability likely modulates the connection between tropical convection and extreme sea ice loss events.

Turbulent heat flux↗
NASA NTRS2024

Improved Modelling of SEP Event Onset Within the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD Framework

Multi-spacecraft observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events not only enable a deeper understanding and development of particle acceleration and transport theories but also provide important constraints for model validation efforts. However, because of computational limitations, a given physics-based SEP model is usually best suited to capture a particular phase of an SEP event, rather than its whole development from onset through decay. For example, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere often incorporate solar transients only at the outer boundary of their so-called coronal domain – usually set at a heliocentric distance of 20–30 R⊙. This means that particle acceleration at coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven shocks is also computed from this boundary onwards, leading to simulated SEP event onsets that can be many hours later than observed, since shock waves can form much lower in the solar corona. In this work, we aim to improve the modelled onset of SEP events by inserting a “fixed source” of particle injection at the outer boundary of the coronal domain of the coupled WSA–Enlil 3D MHD model of the heliosphere. The SEP model that we employ for this effort is Solar Energetic Particle MODel (SEPMOD), a physics-based test-particle code based on a field line tracer and adiabatic invariant conservation. We apply our initial tests and results of SEPMOD’s fixed-source option to the 2021 October 9 SEP event, which was detected at five well-separated locations in the inner heliosphere – Parker Solar Probe, STEREO-A, Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, and near-Earth spacecraft.

Solar eruptions↗
NASA NTRS1991

Sublimation rates of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide from comet nuclei at large distances from the Sun

One of the more attractive among the plausible scenarios for the major emission event recently observed on Comet Halley at a heliocentric distance of 14.3 AU is activation of a source of ejecta driven by an icy substance much more volatile than water. As prerequisite for the forthcoming detailed analysis of the imaging observations of this event, a simple model is proposed that yields the sublimation rate versus time at any location on the surface of a rotating cometary nucleus for two candidate ices: carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide. The model's variable parameters are the comet's heliocentric distance r and the Sun's instantaneous zenith angle z.

Sekanina, Zdenek↗
NASA NTRS2021

Magnetosphere-Ionosphere Coupling of Precipitated Electrons in Diffuse Aurora Driven by Time Domain Structures

Recent theoretical studies and the spacecraft conjugate observations between the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions during Substorms (THEMIS) mission and the low-altitude Enhanced Polar Outflow Probe (e-POP) spacecraft demonstrated the connections between broadband electrostatic fluctuations, the so called time domain structures (TDSs), and electron precipitation in the region of diffuse aurora. In this letter, we used the SuperThermal Electron Transport (STET) code to implement these theoretical and experimental results and analyze magnetosphere-ionosphere energy interplay of the precipitated electrons that are driven by TDSs. To put TDSs electron scattering processes in the context with other wave scattering activities, ECH and whistler chorus waves are taken into account. Integrated electron energy fluxes in the diffuse aurora driven by TDSs are comparable to those driven by whistler waves. We find that including Magnetosphere-Ionosphere coupling processes increases the integrated electron energy fluxes by more than two times than only driven by TDSs.

diffuse aurora↗
NASA NTRS2018

Power-Law Statistics of Driven Reconnection in the Magnetically Closed Corona

Numerous observations have revealed that power-law distributions are ubiquitous in energetic solar processes. Hard X-rays, soft X-rays, extreme ultraviolet radiation, and radio waves all display power-law frequency distributions. Since magnetic reconnection is the driving mechanism for many energetic solar phenomena, it is likely that reconnection events themselves display such power-law distributions. In this work, we perform numerical simulations of the solar corona driven by simple convective motions at the photospheric level. Using temperature changes, current distributions, and Poynting fluxes as proxies for heating, we demonstrate that energetic events occurring in our simulation display power-law frequency distributions, with slopes in good agreement with observations. We suggest that the braiding-associated reconnection in the corona can be understood in terms of a self-organized criticality model driven by convective rotational motions similar to those observed at the photosphere.

Knizhnik, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

The decay of coronal loops brightened by flares and transients

Observations of X-ray emitting loops derived from Skylab S-054 photographs, and combined with temperature and brightness estimates from Solrad data, are used to determine brightness decay times resulting from various coronal energy loss mechanisms. Conductive losses are found to be more rapid than radiative losses. Attention is given to the role of geometrical inhibition of conduction as a possible mechanism of brightness decay. Soft X-ray observations are consistent with the continuation of the 'evaporation' driven by thermal conduction late into the decay phase of the event.

Krieger, A. S.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Transient rotor dynamic rub phenomena - Theory and test

This paper develops an implicit integration scheme for transient rotor dynamic rub prediction and includes a correlation study with actual test results. A Nordsieck-like numerical integration scheme is applied directly to the second-order equations of motion. The assumption that forces and torques on the rotor are functions of the position and velocity at the point of application and its nearest neighbor is made in order to make the computational time proportional to the number of elements in the rotor dynamics model rather than the cube of the number. The test rig consists of a turbine driven, flexible shaft supported by squeeze film dampers. The blade loss event occurs due to collision of a balance bolt on one of the disks with a high speed plunger. The rotor is seen to spiral outward and contact against a stationary assemblage of seal shoes.

Kascak, A. F.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Purification of the small mechanosensitive channel of Escherichia coli (MscS): the subunit structure, conduction, and gating characteristics in liposomes

The small mechanosensitive channel, MscS, is a part of the turgor-driven solute efflux system that protects bacteria from lysis in the event of osmotic downshift. It has been identified in Escherichia coli as a product of the orphan yggB gene, now called mscS (Levina et al., 1999, EMBO J. 18:1730). Here I show that that the isolated 31-kDa MscS protein is sufficient to form a functional mechanosensitive channel gated directly by tension in the lipid bilayer. MscS-6His complexes purified in the presence of octylglucoside and lipids migrate in a high-resolution gel-filtration column as particles of approximately 200 kDa. Consistent with that, the protein cross-linking patterns predict a hexamer. The channel reconstituted in soybean asolectin liposomes was activated by pressures of 20-60 mm Hg and displayed the same asymmetric I-V curve and slight anionic preference as in situ. At the same time, the single-channel conductance is proportional to the buffer conductivity in a wide range of salt concentrations. The rate of channel activation in response to increasing pressure gradient across the patch was slower than the rate of closure in response to decreasing steps of pressure gradient. Therefore, the open probability curves were recorded with descending series of pressures. Determination of the curvature of patches by video imaging permitted measurements of the channel activity as a function of membrane tension (gamma). Po(gamma) curves had the midpoint at 5.5 +/- 0.1 dyne/cm and gave estimates for the energy of opening DeltaG = 11.4 +/- 0.5 kT, and the transition-related area change DeltaA = 8.4 +/- 0.4 nm(2) when fitted with a two-state Boltzmann model. The correspondence between channel properties in the native and reconstituted systems is discussed.

NASA Discipline Cell Biology↗