Results for “error propagation” — Page 15

DOE OSTI2026

Determining Optimal Magnetometer Configuration on MAGIS-100

Long-baseline atom interferometers such as the Matter-wave Atomic Gradiometer Interferometric Sensor (MAGIS-100) require stringent control and continuous characterization of background magnetic fields and spatial gradients to prevent systemic phase shifts that mimic ultralight dark matter or gravitational wave signatures. Because direct sensor placement within the ultra-high vacuum beam pipe is infeasible, in-situ magnetic field monitoring relies on external sensor arrays situated in the surrounding annular region. This work demonstrates a field reconstruction framework for a 5.3-meter MAGIS-100 modular section using finite-element Opera simulations. Transverse magnetic fields are expanded using a cylindrical multipole framework as informed by Fermilab’s Muon g-2 experiment, with magnetometer array configurations optimized via Fisher information matrix D-optimality. Inverting external sensor readings through a Gauss-Newton scheme recovers interior tube fields across distinct axial positions. In the discontinuity-averse uniform region (slice pair P4), the model achieves sub-noise-floor performance with a cross-validated root-mean-square error (RMSE) of $6.7227 \times 10^{-4}\text{ A/m}$ ($0.845\times$ sensor noise floor) and an interior field coefficient of variation of $1.71\%$. An elbow criterion in the Fisher bounds establishes $n_{\text{max}} = 2$ as the optimal multipole truncation order to prevent noise amplification from over-parameterization, with $n_{\text{max}} = 3$ (sextupole) order chosen for analysis to demonstrate further complexity and cross-pair comparison. Furthermore, analytical differentiation of the fitted multipole coefficients yields dense spatial maps of the transverse Jacobian gradient matrix $\nabla \mathbf{H}$ along with propagated $1\sigma$ uncertainty bounds across the beam region ($r \le 2.75\text{ in}$). This operational framework confirms that external magnetometer arrays can reliably monitor magnetic field uniformity and spatial gradients along the 100-meter flight path given appropriate sampling for any complexity order.

Appleby, Darwin [William Rainey Harper Coll.] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2026

Determining Optimal Magnetometer Configuration on MAGIS-100

Long-baseline atom interferometers such as the Matter-wave Atomic Gradiometer Interferometric Sensor (MAGIS-100) require stringent control and continuous characterization of background magnetic fields and spatial gradients to prevent systemic phase shifts that mimic ultralight dark matter or gravitational wave signatures. Because direct sensor placement within the ultra-high vacuum beam pipe is infeasible, in-situ magnetic field monitoring relies on external sensor arrays situated in the surrounding annular region. This work demonstrates a field reconstruction framework for a 5.3-meter MAGIS-100 modular section using finite-element Opera simulations. Transverse magnetic fields are expanded using a cylindrical multipole framework as informed by Fermilab’s Muon g-2 experiment, with magnetometer array configurations optimized via Fisher information matrix D-optimality. Inverting external sensor readings through a Gauss-Newton scheme recovers interior tube fields across distinct axial positions. In the discontinuity-averse uniform region (slice pair P4), the model achieves sub-noise-floor performance with a cross-validated root-mean-square error (RMSE) of $6.7227 \times 10^{-4}\text{ A/m}$ ($0.845\times$ sensor noise floor) and an interior field coefficient of variation of $1.71\%$. An elbow criterion in the Fisher bounds establishes $n_{\text{max}} = 2$ as the optimal multipole truncation order to prevent noise amplification from over-parameterization, with $n_{\text{max}} = 3$ (sextupole) order chosen for analysis to demonstrate further complexity and cross-pair comparison. Furthermore, analytical differentiation of the fitted multipole coefficients yields dense spatial maps of the transverse Jacobian gradient matrix $\nabla \mathbf{H}$ along with propagated $1\sigma$ uncertainty bounds across the beam region ($r \le 2.75\text{ in}$). This operational framework confirms that external magnetometer arrays can reliably monitor magnetic field uniformity and spatial gradients along the 100-meter flight path given appropriate sampling for any complexity order.

Appleby, Darwin [William Rainey Harper Coll.] (ORC↗

DOE OSTI2026

In-Situ Magnetic Field Reconstruction in the MAGIS-100 Experiment

Long-baseline atom interferometers such as the Matter-wave Atomic Gradiometer Interferometric Sensor (MAGIS-100) require stringent control and continuous characterization of background magnetic fields and spatial gradients to prevent systemic phase shifts that mimic ultralight dark matter or gravitational wave signatures. Because direct sensor placement within the ultra-high vacuum beam pipe is infeasible, in-situ magnetic field monitoring relies on external sensor arrays situated in the surrounding annular region. This work demonstrates a field reconstruction framework for a 5.3-meter MAGIS-100 modular section using finite-element Opera simulations. Transverse magnetic fields are expanded using a cylindrical multipole framework as informed by Fermilab’s Muon g-2 experiment, with magnetometer array configurations optimized via Fisher information matrix D-optimality. Inverting external sensor readings through a Gauss-Newton scheme recovers interior tube fields across distinct axial positions. In the discontinuity-averse uniform region (slice pair P4), the model achieves sub-noise-floor performance with a cross-validated root-mean-square error (RMSE) of $6.7227 \times 10^{-4}\text{ A/m}$ ($0.845\times$ sensor noise floor) and an interior field coefficient of variation of $1.71\%$. An elbow criterion in the Fisher bounds establishes $n_{\text{max}} = 2$ as the optimal multipole truncation order to prevent noise amplification from over-parameterization, with $n_{\text{max}} = 3$ (sextupole) order chosen for analysis to demonstrate further complexity and cross-pair comparison. Furthermore, analytical differentiation of the fitted multipole coefficients yields dense spatial maps of the transverse Jacobian gradient matrix $\nabla \mathbf{H}$ along with propagated $1\sigma$ uncertainty bounds across the beam region ($r \le 2.75\text{ in}$). This operational framework confirms that external magnetometer arrays can reliably monitor magnetic field uniformity and spatial gradients along the 100-meter flight path given appropriate sampling for any complexity order.

Appleby, Darwin [William Rainey Harper Coll.; Ferm↗

DOE OSTI2022

The MP{sub N} method: a new angular discretization method based on piecewise polynomial interfaces fluxes

In transport calculations, it is well known how S{sub N} method is extremely inefficient in problems where the particle physics is dominated by streaming. The ray-effect eventually produced by the insufficient angular discretization, appears to be extremely persistent with respect to the refinement of the angular quadrature. The MP{sub N} method, that relies on continuous angular representation, offers a robust remedy to such an issue. MP{sub N} is based on the decomposition of the unit sphere into solid angles and on a piecewise continuous definition of interface fluxes, which are expanded in polynomials in each solid angle. This allows propagating more than one angular degree of freedom simultaneously while maintaining unaltered the block-diagonal pattern of the displacement plus removal operator. The method is therefore well suited for the flux resolution by means of a conventional sweep algorithm. Furthermore, unlike the S{sub N} method, MP{sub N} does not rely on discrete directions and, thus, on an angular quadrature formula, but rather constructs a set of linear equations solving for the angular moments of the flux for all discrete solid angles within the sweep. MP{sub N} shows an error convergence rate higher than S{sub N} at the expense of an increased size of the coefficient matrices, so of the computational cost. Although MP{sub N} is not free from ray-effect, the latter is effectively mitigated and less persistent with respect to the increase of the angular refinement order. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Isomer-Dependent Reaction Mechanisms of Cyclic Ether Intermediates: cis -23-Dimethyloxirane and trans -23-Dimethyloxirane.

Oxiranes are a class of cyclic ethers formed in abundance during low-temperature combustion of hydrocarbons and biofuels, either via chain-propagating steps that occur from unimolecular decomposition of β-hydroperoxyalkyl radicals (β-˙QOOH) or from reactions of HÒO with alkenes. The cis- and trans-isomers of 2,3-dimethyloxirane are intermediates of n-butane oxidation, and while rate coefficients for β-˙QOOH → 2,3-dimethyloxirane + OH are reported extensively, subsequent reaction mechanisms of the cyclic ethers are not. As a result, chemical kinetics mechanisms commonly adopt simplified chemistry to describe the consumption of 2,3-dimethyloxirane by convoluting several elementary reactions into a single step, which may introduce mechanism truncation error—uncertainty derived from missing or incomplete chemistry. The present research examines the isomerdependence of 2,3-dimethyloxirane reaction mechanisms in support of ongoing efforts to minimize mechanism truncation error. Reaction mechanisms are inferred via the detection of products from Cl-initiated oxidation of both cis-2,3-dimethyloxirane and trans-2,3-dimethyloxirane using multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry (MPIMS). The experiments were conducted at 10 Torr and temperatures of 650 K and 800 K. To complement the experiments, the enthalpies of stationary points on the ˙R + O 2 surfaces were computed at the ccCA-PS3 level of theory. In total, 28 barrier heights were computed on the 2,3-dimethyloxiranylperoxy surfaces. Two notable aspects are low-lying pathways that form resonance-stabilized ketohydroperoxide-type radicals caused by ˙QOOH ring-opening when the unpaired electron is localized adjacent to the ether group, and cis-trans isomerization of ˙R and ˙QOOH radicals, via inversion, which enable reaction pathways otherwise restricted by stereochemistry. Several species were identified in the MPIMS experiments from ring opening of 2,3-dimethyloxiranyl radicals. Neither of the two conjugate alkene isomers prototypical of ˙R + O 2 reactions were detected. Products were also identified from decomposition of ketohydroperoxide-type radicals. The present work provides the first analysis of 2,3-dimethyloxirane oxidation chemistry and reveals that consumption pathways are complex and require the expansion of submechanisms in chemical kinetics mechanisms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking magnetised three-wave coupling for laser backscattering: analytic solutions and kinetic simulations

Understanding magnetised laser–plasma interactions is important for controlling magneto-inertial fusion experiments and developing magnetically assisted radiation and particle sources. For nanosecond pulses at non-relativistic intensities, interactions are dominated by coherent three-wave interactions, whose nonlinear coupling coefficients became known only recently when waves propagate at oblique angles with the magnetic field. In this paper, backscattering coupling coefficients predicted by warm-fluid theory are benchmarked using particle-in-cell simulations in one spatial dimension, and excellent agreements are found for a wide range of plasma temperatures, magnetic field strengths and laser propagation angles, when the interactions are mediated by electron-dominant hybrid waves. Systematic comparisons between theory and simulations are made possible by a rigorous protocol. On the theory side, the initial boundary value problem of linearised three-wave equations is solved, and the transient-time solutions allow the effects of growth and damping to be distinguished. On the simulation side, parameters are carefully chosen and calibration runs are performed to ensure that comparisons are well controlled. Fitting simulation data to analytical solutions yields numerical growth rates that match theory predictions within error bars. Although warm-fluid theory is found to be valid for a wide parameter range, genuine kinetic effects have also been observed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Towards high data-rate diffusive molecular communications: A review on performance enhancement strategies

Diffusive molecular communications (DiMC) have recently gained attention as a candidate for nano- to micro- and macro-scale communications due to its simplicity and energy efficiency. As signal propagation is solely enabled by Brownian motion mechanics, DiMC faces severe inter-symbol interference (ISI), which limits reliable and high data-rate communications. Herein, recent literature on DiMC performance enhancement strategies is surveyed; key research directions are identified. Signaling design and associated design constraints are presented. Here, studies on fundamental information theoretic limits of DiMC channel are reviewed. Classical and novel transceiver designs are discussed with an emphasis on methods for ISI mitigation and performance-complexity tradeoffs. Key parameter estimation strategies such as synchronization and channel estimation are considered in conjunction with asynchronous and timing error robust receiver methods. Finally, source and channel coding in the context of DiMC is presented.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Expectation-propagation for weak radionuclide identification at radiation portal monitors

We propose a sparsity-promoting Bayesian algorithm capable of identifying radionuclide signatures from weak sources in the presence of a high radiation background. The proposed method is relevant to radiation identification for security applications. In such scenarios, the background typically consists of terrestrial, cosmic, and cosmogenic radiation that may cause false positive responses. We evaluate the new Bayesian approach using gamma-ray data and are able to identify weapons-grade plutonium, masked by naturally-occurring radioactive material (NORM), in a measurement time of a few seconds. We demonstrate this identification capability using organic scintillators (stilbene crystals and EJ-309 liquid scintillators), which do not provide direct, high-resolution, source spectroscopic information. Compared to the EJ-309 detector, the stilbene-based detector exhibits a lower identification error, on average, owing to its better energy resolution. Organic scintillators are used within radiation portal monitors to detect gamma rays emitted from conveyances crossing ports of entry. The described method is therefore applicable to radiation portal monitors deployed in the field and could improve their threat discrimination capability by minimizing “nuisance” alarms produced either by NORM-bearing materials found in shipped cargoes, such as ceramics and fertilizers, or radionuclides in recently treated nuclear medicine patients.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Practical Approach to Wave Function Propagation, Hopping Probabilities, and Time Steps in Surface Hopping Calculations

We compare several established approaches for propagating wave functions and calculating hopping probabilities within the fewest switches surface hopping (FSSH) algorithm for difficult cases with many electronic states and many trivial crossings. If only a single time step (Δt c ) is employed, we find that no published approach can accurately capture the dynamics correctly unless Δt c → 0 (which is not computationally feasible). If multiple time steps are employed, for a fixed classical time step (Δt c ), a robust scheme can be found for dynamically choosing quantum time steps (δt q1 and δt q2 ) and calculating hopping probabilities so that one can systematically reduce all errors and achieve maximally efficient accuracy; scattering calculations confirm that one can choose a fairly large classical time step. Furthermore, the robust scheme presented here uses both the “local diabatic” and adiabatic interpolation and thus borrows elements from both the Granucci/Persico and Meek/Levine algorithms. Our findings should be broadly applicable in the future.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Embedded Error Bayesian Calibration of Thermal Decomposition of Organic Materials

Organic materials are an attractive choice for structural components due to their light weight and versatility. However, because they decompose at low temperatures relative to tradiational materials they pose a safety risk due to fire and loss of structural integrity. To quantify this risk, analysts use chemical kinetics models to describe the material pyrolysis and oxidation using thermogravimetric analysis. This process requires the calibration of many model parameters to closely match experimental data. Previous efforts in this field have largely been limited to finding a single best-fit set of parameters even though the experimental data may be very noisy. Furthermore the chemical kinetics models are often simplified representations of the true de- composition process. The simplification induces model-form errors that the fitting process cannot capture. In this work we propose a methodology for calibrating decomposition models to thermogravimetric analysis data that accounts for uncertainty in the model-form and experimental data simultaneously. The methodology is applied to the decomposition of a carbon fiber epoxy composite with a three-stage reaction network and Arrhenius kinetics. The results show a good overlap between the model predictions and thermogravimetric analysis data. Uncertainty bounds capture devia- tions of the model from the data. The calibrated parameter distributions are also presented. In conclusion, the distributions may be used in forward propagation of uncertainty in models that leverage this material.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Pragmatic Uncertainty Quantification and Propagation in Inverse Estimation of Structural Dynamics Parameters given Material Property Uncertainties and Limited Sensor Data

In this report we demonstrate some relatively simple and inexpensive methods to effectively account for various sources of epistemic lack-of-knowledge type uncertainty in inverse problems. The demonstration problem involves inverse estimation of six parameters of a bolted joint that attaches a kettlebell shaped object to a thick plate. The parameters are efficiently inverted in a modal-based model calibration using gradient-based optimization. Two material properties of the kettlebell are treated as uncertain to within given epistemic uncertainty bounds. We apply and test interval and sparse-sample probabilistic approaches to account for uncertainty in the estimated parameters (and various scalar functionals of the parameters as generic quantities of interest, QOIs) due to uncertainties in the material properties. We also investigate the error effects of limited numbers of vibration sensors (accelerometers) on the kettlebell and plate, and therefore abbreviated excitation/response information in the parameter inversions. We propose and demonstrate a Leave-K-Sensors-Out “cross-prediction” UQ approach to estimate related uncertainties on the parameters and QOI functionals. We indicate how uncertainties from material properties and limited sensors are treated in a combined manner. The economical combined UQ approach involves just three to five samples (i.e. three to five inverse simulations), with no added complication or error/uncertainty from use of surrogate models for affordability. Finally, we describe a related economical UQ approach for handling potential parameter solution non-uniqueness and numerical optimization related precision uncertainties in the estimated parameter values. Indicated further research is identified.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Soft error-mitigating semiconductor design system and associated methods

A soft error-mitigating semiconductor design system and associated methods that tailor circuit design steps to mitigate corruption of data in storage elements (e.g., flip flops) due to Single Events Effects (SEEs). Required storage elements are automatically mapped to triplicated redundant nodes controlled by a voting element that enforces majority-voting logic for fault-free output (i.e., Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR)). Storage elements are also optimally positioned for placement in keeping with SEE-tolerant spacing constraints. Additionally, clock delay insertion (employing either a single global clock or clock triplication) in the TMR specification may introduce useful skew that protects against glitch propagation through the designed device. The resultant layout generated from the TMR configuration may relax constraints imposed on register transfer level (RTL) engineers to make rad-hard designs, as automation introduces TMR storage registers, memory element spacing, and clock delay/triplication with minimal designer input.

Miryala, Sandeep↗

DOE OSTI2024

Soft error-mitigating semiconductor design system and associated methods

A soft error-mitigating semiconductor design system and associated methods that tailor circuit design steps to mitigate corruption of data in storage elements (e.g., flip flops) due to Single Events Effects (SEEs). Required storage elements are automatically mapped to triplicated redundant nodes controlled by a voting element that enforces majority-voting logic for fault-free output (i.e., Triple Modular Redundancy (TMR)). Storage elements are also optimally positioned for placement in keeping with SEE-tolerant spacing constraints. Additionally, clock delay insertion (employing either a single global clock or clock triplication) in the TMR specification may introduce useful skew that protects against glitch propagation through the designed device. The resultant layout generated from the TMR configuration may relax constraints imposed on register transfer level (RTL) engineers to make rad-hard designs, as automation introduces TMR storage registers, memory element spacing, and clock delay/triplication with minimal designer input.

Miryala, Sandeep↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ytterbium ion trap quantum computing: The current state-of-the-art

In this work, we present an overview of contemporary quantum computing with ytterbium ion traps, placing the emphasis on industry implementations. We provide brief, concrete descriptions of various key features, such as trap loading, electronic structure, qubit function, gates, error analysis, and benchmarking. We focus on the underlying science and current technologies to provide readers with a holistic picture of available techniques for using ytterbium in contemporary ion trap designs.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Combined speckle- and propagation-based single shot two-dimensional phase retrieval method

Single-shot two-dimensional (2D) phase retrieval (PR) can recover the phase shift distribution within an object from a single 2D x-ray phase contrast image (XPCI). Two competing XPCI imaging modalities often used for single-shot 2D PR to recover material properties critical for predictive performance capabilities are: speckle-based (SP-XPCI) and propagation-based (PB-XPCI) XPCI imaging. However, PR from SP-XPCI and PB-XPCI images are, respectively, limited to reconstructing accurately slowly and rapidly varying features due to noise and differences in their contrast mechanisms. Herein, we consider a combined speckle- and propagation-based XPCI (SPB-XPCI) image by introducing a mask to generate a reference pattern and imaging in the near-to-holographic regime to induce intensity modulations in the image. We develop a single-shot 2D PR method for SPB-XPCI images of pure phase objects without imposing restrictions such as object support constraints. It is compared against PR methods inspired by those developed for SP-XPCI and PB-XPCI on simulated and experimental images of a thin glass shell before and during shockwave compression. Reconstructed phase maps show improvements in quantitative scores of root-mean-square error and structural similarity index measure using our proposed method.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Overall equilibrium in the coupling of peridynamics and classical continuum mechanics

Coupling peridynamics based computational tools with those using classical continuum mechanics can be very beneficial, because it can provide a means to generate a computational method that combines the efficiency of classical continuum mechanics with the capability to simulate crack propagation, typical of peridynamics. This paper presents an overlooked issue in this type of coupled computational methods: the lack of overall equilibrium. This can be the case even if the coupling strategy satisfies the usual numerical tests involving rigid body motions as well as uniform and linear strain distributions. We focus our investigation on the lack of overall equilibrium in an approach to couple peridynamics and classical continuum mechanics recently proposed by the authors. In our examples, the magnitude of the out-of-balance forces is a fraction of a percent of the applied forces, but it cannot be assumed to be a numerical round-off error. We show analytically and numerically that the main reason for the existence of out-of-balance forces is a lack of balance between the local and nonlocal tractions at the coupling interface. This usually results from the presence of high-order derivatives of displacements in the coupling zone.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accurate data-driven surrogates of dynamical systems for forward propagation of uncertainty

Stochastic collocation (SC) is a well-known non-intrusive method of constructing surrogate models for uncertainty quantification. In dynamical systems, SC is especially suited for full-field uncertainty propagation that characterizes the distributions of the high-dimensional solution fields of a model with stochastic input parameters. However, due to the highly nonlinear nature of the parameter-to-solution map in even the simplest dynamical systems, the constructed SC surrogates are often inaccurate. Here, this work presents an alternative approach, where we apply the SC approximation over the dynamics of the model, rather than the solution. By combining the data-driven sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics framework with SC, we construct dynamics surrogates and integrate them through time to construct the surrogate solutions. We demonstrate that the SC-over-dynamics framework leads to smaller errors, both in terms of the approximated system trajectories as well as the model state distributions, when compared against full-field SC applied to the solutions directly. We present numerical evidence of this improvement using three test problems: a chaotic ordinary differential equation, and two partial differential equations from solid mechanics.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning-Driven Reliability Estimation of PV Inverters Considering Alert-Ambient Variability

Weather-induced spatio-temporal degradation limits outdoor PV inverter lifetime and reliability, necessitating advanced data analysis. This study employs a top-down, data-driven approach utilizing multiple machine learning (ML) algorithms to estimate inverter reliability in a 1.4 MW PV power plant, considering factors such as irradiance, humidity, temperature, time of day, and weather conditions. An extensive alert dataset from 17 identical inverters, including alert types, propagation, and frequency, reveals significant correlations with environmental factors and inverter output power, enabling the construction of a performance reliability model. Dual-stage supervised-ML models are evaluated for accuracy, with the ‘classification-regression’ model by an artificial neural network (ANN) tested on the averaged “Alert-Ambient” dataset, which is outperformed by ‘clustering-regression’ models using random forest (RF) and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) on individual inverter datasets. K-means clustering applies principal component analysis to reduce dimensions, achieving improved accuracy beyond the 80% achieved by ANN on the averaged dataset. Second-stage regression estimates inverter reliability with a mean square error of 0.0195 on the averaged dataset and as low as 0.002 on individual inverter datasets using RF. Furthermore, these findings highlight the method's suitability for estimating PV inverter output reliability under ambient conditions, essential for digital twin development and related applications.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗