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At least 271 records · Page 15

Evaluation of 10‐m Wind Speed From ISD Meteorological Stations and the MERRA‐2 Reanalysis: Impacts on Dust Emission in the Arabian Peninsula

Mineral dust is one of the most important aerosols when studying the radiative balance and climate of the planet. There are different dust emission schemes utilized by the atmospheric modeling communities, many of which disagree on basic output quantities such as mass of dust emitted and distribution of mass among size bins. In this work, we examined mineral dust emission from a leading model scheme, the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART), as utilized in the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2) Reanalysis and compared it to dust emissions calculated using wind measurements from ground based weather stations located in the Arabian Peninsula that are included in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) integrated surface database (ISD). An intercomparison of 10-m wind speed is shown for the Arabian Peninsula region, differences of the observed and modeled wind field are quantified, and impacts of differences on dust emissions are calculated. This analysis shows 10-m winds in the ISD were generally lower than MERRA-2 winds, which propagated to dust emissions errors. Our estimate of one of the most significant mass impacts in dust emission is 0.178 Tg/year/grid box with a percent change of over 200% to the recalculated dust emissions from MERRA-2. These differences in wind speed propagated to a difference in dust mass emitted by the use of a static source function which aids in scaling the mass emitted by the availability of dust in each grid. Additionally, the magnitude of these differences varies seasonally.

winds↗

Atmospheric Compensation for Uplink Arrays via Radiometry

Uplink arrays for communications applications are gaining increased visibility within the NASA and military community due to the enhanced flexibility and reliability they provide. When compared with the conventional large, single aperture antennas currently comprising the Deep Space Network (DSN), for example, smaller aperture antenna arrays have the benefits of providing fault tolerance (reduced single-point failure), reduced maintenance cost, and enhanced capabilities such as electronic beam-steering and multi-beam operation. However, signal combining of antenna array elements spaced many wavelengths apart becomes problematic due to the inherent instability of earth's turbulent atmosphere, particularly at the frequencies of interest to the DSN (i.e., Ka-band). Degradation in the power combining of the individual elements comprising the array arises due to uncorrelated phase errors introduced as the signals propagate through the troposphere. It is well known that the fundamental source of this error is due to the inhomogeneous distribution of water vapor in the atmosphere [1]. Several techniques have been proposed to circumvent this issue, including the use of phase calibration towers and a moon bounce to generate a feedback loop which would provide a means of intermittent calibration of the system phase errors (thermal drifts, atmosphere) [2,3]. However, these techniques require repositioning of the antenna elements to perform this operation which ultimately results in reduced system availability. And, though they are sufficient for compensating for slow varying phase drifts, they are insufficient to compensate for faster varying phase errors, such as those introduced by the atmosphere. In this paper, preliminary radiometry and interferometry measurements collected by the NASA Glenn Research Center are analyzed and indicate that the use of optimized water vapor radiometers as a feedback system in a communications platform could provide the necessary atmospheric compensation technique to enhance the beamforming of uplink arrays.

Nessel, James A.↗

Precision of vertical position estimates from very long baseline interferometry

It is found that the precision of VLBI measurements of vertical crustal motions is limited by errors in the modeling of the propagation delay through the earth's neutral atmosphere, and by errors in finding the orientation of a fixed crust coordinate system in the VLBI reference frame. The repeatability of baseline length measurements study indicates a vertical position precision of about 8 cm, averaged over 13 sites and 4.5 years of data, while the repeatability of vertical position estimates for a Richmond, FL site is found to yield a precision of about 7 cm for 42 observations made over an 11-month period. An overall precision of 8 cm for a 24-hour VLBI observing session is obtained, and the effects of earth orientation parameter errors is contingent on the distances between the VLBI sites.

Herring, T. A.↗

Performance of a 2-micrometer coherent Doppler lidar for wind measurements

Measurements of boundary layer winds are presented using a 2-micrometer coherent Doppler lidar and the optimal performance of the maximum likelihood estimator. The systematic error for single-shot estimates was estimated as 3.6 cm/s using measurements from a stationary hard target. The estimation error for measurements of the radial component of the wind field was determined, as well as the fraction of the estimates that are randomly distributed over the velocity search space, when the signal power is low and speckle fading is important. The results from actual data are compared with the results from ideal simulations. The first direct estimation of the spatial structure function of the radial wind field and of the energy dissipation rate is presented for both horizontal and vertical directions of propagation. The rms estimation error of the velocity estimates is found to be within 30% of ideal performance based on simulation.

Frehlich, Rod↗

Effect of ephemeris errors on the accuracy of the computation of the tangent point altitude of a solar scanning ray as measured by the SAGE 1 and 2 instruments

An analysis was made of the error in the minimum altitude of a geometric ray from an orbiting spacecraft to the Sun. The sunrise and sunset errors are highly correlated and are opposite in sign. With the ephemeris generated for the SAGE 1 instrument data reduction, these errors can be as large as 200 to 350 meters (1 sigma) after 7 days of orbit propagation. The bulk of this error results from errors in the position of the orbiting spacecraft rather than errors in computing the position of the Sun. These errors, in turn, result from the discontinuities in the ephemeris tapes resulting from the orbital determination process. Data taken from the end of the definitive ephemeris tape are used to generate the predict data for the time interval covered by the next arc of the orbit determination process. The predicted data are then updated by using the tracking data. The growth of these errors is very nearly linear, with a slight nonlinearity caused by the beta angle. An approximate analytic method is given, which predicts the magnitude of the errors and their growth in time with reasonable fidelity.

Buglia, James J.↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Expected Time-of-Arrival in UAV Flight Trajectory

One of the foremost requirements for accurate in-flight safety monitoring of autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) is tracking of their flight trajectory. Existing UAVs leverage autonomous flight functionalities based on trajectory generation algorithms developed in robotic applications such as polynomial or spline curves in order to facilitate kinematic smoothness, minimum vibrations and fuel efficiency. However in practice, the actual path may be subjected to unexpected local weather conditions, unexpected obstacles along the path or abrupt traffic changes in the low-altitude airspace resulting in large errors of the predicted time-of-arrival at way-points. In this study, an approach to quantify and propagate uncertainty in 4D trajectories is proposed. The paper presents a simple error interval propagation method based on the expected cruise speed of the UAV and its associated uncertainty. The uncertainty is then propagated in time to estimate reasonable confidence intervals on the times-of-arrival of the vehicle at each way-point as well as along the entire flight-path. The uncertainty propagation is demonstrated on a state-of-the-art trajectory generation algorithm based on non-uniform rational B-spline (NURBS) curves. Further, the effect of a stationary wind field is incorporated in the uncertainty propagation approach. The proposed method is implemented on synthetic and real data obtained from flight experiments with a small UAV.

Uncertainty Quantification↗

The effect of initial flaw configuration on leak critical pressure vessel design

The effect of initial flaw shape and depth on the cycles required to produce a pressure leak condition in parent and welded 2219-T87 aluminum was examined for thicknesses from 0.04 to 0.3 inch. Initial flaw aspect ratios of 0.5, 0.3, and 0.15 were examined for tests conducted at a frequency of 4 Hz at room temperature and at 300 F. A computer program developed by Forman was used to predict the cycles to leak curve as a function of initial crack aspect ratio, material thickness, and specimen type and the results compared with the experimental data. Sources of error in the crack propagation analysis and the interface with NDI capabilities are discussed.

Pettit, D. E.↗

On the effect of quarter-point element size on fracture criteria

The effect of the quarter-point element size on the solution parameters of fracture criteria is investigated in view of its effect on the computed stress intensity factors. An analytical relationship between the error in calculating crack propagation increment and stress intensity for single mode problems is obtained while, for mixed mode problems, the investigation is based on numerical experimentation. The singular element size is found to have a substantial effect on both crack propagation angle and increment for the geometries considered.

Yehia, N. A. B.↗

Survey of Primary Flow Measurement Parameters at the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel

An assessment of the methods and locations used to measure the primary flow conditions in the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel was conducted during calibration activities following the facility conversion from a Freon-12 heavy-gas test medium to R-134a. A survey of stagnation pressure, plenum static pressure, and stagnation temperature was undertaken at many pertinent locations in the settling chamber, plenum, and contraction section of the wind tunnel and these measurements were compared to those of the existing primary flow measurement systems. Local flow velocities were measured in the settling chamber using a pitot probe. Results illustrate that small discrepancies exist between measured primary tunnel flow conditions and the survey measurements. These discrepancies in tunnel stagnation pressure, plenum pressure, and stagnation temperature were found to be approximately +/- 1-3 psf and 2-3 degrees Fahrenheit. The propagation of known instrument errors in measured primary flow conditions and its impact on tunnel Mach number, dynamic pressure, flow velocity, and Reynolds number have been investigated analytically and shown to require careful attention when considering the uncertainty in measured test section conditions.

Piatak, David J.↗

Shuttle Debris Impact Tool Assessment Using the Modern Design of Experiments

Computational tools have been developed to estimate thermal and mechanical reentry loads experienced by the Space Shuttle Orbiter as the result of cavities in the Thermal Protection System (TPS). Such cavities can be caused by impact from ice or insulating foam debris shed from the External Tank (ET) on liftoff. The reentry loads depend on cavity geometry and certain Shuttle state variables, among other factors. Certain simplifying assumptions have been made in the tool development about the cavity geometry variables. For example, the cavities are all modeled as shoeboxes , with rectangular cross-sections and planar walls. So an actual cavity is typically approximated with an idealized cavity described in terms of its length, width, and depth, as well as its entry angle, exit angle, and side angles (assumed to be the same for both sides). As part of a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in reentry loads estimated by the debris impact assessment tools, an effort has been initiated to quantify the component of the uncertainty that is due to imperfect geometry specifications for the debris impact cavities. The approach is to compute predicted loads for a set of geometry factor combinations sufficient to develop polynomial approximations to the complex, nonparametric underlying computational models. Such polynomial models are continuous and feature estimable, continuous derivatives, conditions that facilitate the propagation of independent variable errors. As an additional benefit, once the polynomial models have been developed, they require fewer computational resources to execute than the underlying finite element and computational fluid dynamics codes, and can generate reentry loads estimates in significantly less time. This provides a practical screening capability, in which a large number of debris impact cavities can be quickly classified either as harmless, or subject to additional analysis with the more comprehensive underlying computational tools. The polynomial models also provide useful insights into the sensitivity of reentry loads to various cavity geometry variables, and reveal complex interactions among those variables that indicate how the sensitivity of one variable depends on the level of one or more other variables. For example, the effect of cavity length on certain reentry loads depends on the depth of the cavity. Such interactions are clearly displayed in the polynomial response models.

DeLoach, R.↗

A Critical Look at Deriving Monthly Aerosol Optical Depth from Satellite Data

Satellite-derived aerosol data sets, such as those provided by NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments, are greatly improving our understanding of global aerosol optical depth (AOD). Yet, there are sampling issues. MODIS specific orbital geometry, convolved with the need to avoid bright surfaces (glint, desert, clouds, etc.), means that AOD can be under- or over-sampled in places. When deriving downstream products, such as daily or monthly gridded AOD, one must consider the spatial and temporal density of the measurements relative to the gradients of the true AOD. Additionally, retrieval confidence criteria should be considered. Averaged products are highly dependent on choices made for data aggregation and weighting, and sampling errors can be further propagated when deriving regional or global mean AOD. Different choices for aggregation and weighting result in estimates of regional and global means varying by 30% or more. The impacts of a particular averaging algorithm vary by region and surface type and can be shown to represent different tolerance for clouds and retrieval confidence.

Levy, R. C.↗

An Error Analysis of the Phased Array Antenna Pointing Algorithm for STARS Flight Demonstration No. 2

STARS is a multicenter NASA project to determine the feasibility of using space-based assets, such as the Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) and Global Positioning System (GPS), to increase flexibility (e.g. increase the number of possible launch locations and manage simultaneous operations) and to reduce operational costs by decreasing the need for ground-based range assets and infrastructure. The STARS project includes two major systems: the Range Safety and Range User systems. The latter system uses broadband communications (125 kbps to 500 kbps) for voice, video, and vehicle/payload data. Flight Demonstration #1 revealed the need to increase the data rate of the Range User system. During Flight Demo #2, a Ku-band antenna will generate a higher data rate and will be designed with an embedded pointing algorithm to guarantee that the antenna is pointed directly at TDRS. This algorithm will utilize the onboard position and attitude data to point the antenna to TDRS within a 2-degree full-angle beamwidth. This report investigates how errors in aircraft position and attitude, along with errors in satellite position, propagate into the overall pointing vector.

Carney, Michael P.↗

Assessing Uncertainties in Gridded Emissions: A Case Study for Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide (FFCO2) Emission Data

Fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions (FFCO2) are the largest input to the global carbon cycle on a decadal time scale. Because total emissions are assumed to be reasonably well constrained by fuel statistics, FFCO2 often serves as a reference in order to deduce carbon uptake by poorly understood terrestrial and ocean sinks. Conventional atmospheric CO2 flux inversions solve for spatially explicit regional sources and sinks and estimate land and ocean fluxes by subtracting FFCO2. Thus, errors in FFCO2 can propagate into the final inferred flux estimates. Gridded emissions are often based on disaggregation of emissions estimated at national or regional level. Although national and regional total FFCO2 are well known, gridded emission fields are subject to additional uncertainties due to the emission disaggregation. Assessing such uncertainties is often challenging because of the lack of physical measurements for evaluation. We first review difficulties in assessing uncertainties associated with gridded FFCO2 emission data and present several approaches for evaluation of such uncertainties at multiple scales. Given known limitations, inter-emission data differences are often used as a proxy for the uncertainty. The popular approach allows us to characterize differences in emissions, but does not allow us to fully quantify emission disaggregation biases. Our work aims to vicariously evaluate FFCO2 emission data using atmospheric models and measurements. We show a global simulation experiment where uncertainty estimates are propagated as an atmospheric tracer (uncertainty tracer) alongside CO2 in NASA's GEOS model and discuss implications of FFCO2 uncertainties in the context of flux inversions. We also demonstrate the use of high resolution urban CO2 simulations as a tool for objectively evaluating FFCO2 data over intense emission regions. Though this study focuses on FFCO2 emission data, the outcome of this study could also help improve the knowledge of similar gridded emissions data for non-CO2 compounds with similar emission characteristics.

FFCO↗

Experiment Concepts in The Trans-Pacific HDR Satcom Experiment - Phase 2

This paper describes experiment concepts for the Phase-2 of the Trans-Pacific HDR Satcom Experiment (Astronomy). Broadband Satellites serve as a key link in establising a worldwide network of networks, while imposing upon us the particular charcteristics of propagation delay, bandwidth, and error rates which differ from those of terrestrial networks.

Trans-Pacific↗

An evaluation of soundings, analyses and model forecasts derived from TIROS-N and NOAA-6 satellite data

TIROS-N and NOAA-6 temperature soundings over North America during three days in January 1980, and synoptic analyses and numerical-model forecasts derived from them, are compared with conventional data and analyses from NMC's limited-area fine-mesh model (LFM). The collocated sounding comparison revealed significant errors, especially near the surface and the tropopause. Satellite-derived thermal gradients were found to be weak, and thickness-analysis difference fields to propagate eastward, suggesting that sounding errors are correlated with synoptic patterns. The same pattern of anomalies is seen in the model forecasts. More detailed determinations of the correlation detected here could be used to optimize the assimilation of satellite soundings to conventional data.

Koehler, T. L.↗

Errors in reduction methods

A mathematical basis is given for comparing the relative merits of various techniques used to reduce the order of large linear and nonlinear dynamics problems during their numerical integration. In such techniques as Guyan-Irons, path derivatives, selected eigenvectors, Ritz vectors, etc., the nth order initial value problem of /y(dot) = f(y) for t greater than 0, y(0) given/ is typically reduced to the mth order (m is much less than n) problem of /z(dot) = g(z) for t greater than 0, z(0) given/ by the transformation y = Pz where P changes from technique to technique. This paper gives an explicit approximate expression for the reduction error e-i in terms of P and the Jacobian of f. It is shown that: (a) reduction techniques are more accurate when the time rate of change of the response y is relatively small; (b) the change in response between two successive stations contributes to the errors at future stations after the change in response is transformed by a filtering matrix H, defined in terms of P; (c) the error committed at a station propagates to future stations by a mixing and scaling matrix G, defined in terms of P, Jacobian and of f, and time increment h. The paper discusses the conditions under which the reduction errors may be minimized and gives guidelines for selecting the reduction basis vector, i.e., the columns of P.

Utku, S.↗

Orbit-determination performance of Doppler data for interplanetary cruise trajectories. Part 1: Error analysis methodology

An error covariance analysis methodology is used to investigate different weighting schemes for two-way (coherent) Doppler data in the presence of transmission-media and observing-platform calibration errors. The analysis focuses on orbit-determination performance in the interplanetary cruise phase of deep-space missions. Analytical models for the Doppler observable and for transmission-media and observing-platform calibration errors are presented, drawn primarily from previous work. Previously published analytical models were improved upon by the following: (1) considering the effects of errors in the calibration of radio signal propagation through the troposphere and ionosphere as well as station-location errors; (2) modelling the spacecraft state transition matrix using a more accurate piecewise-linear approximation to represent the evolution of the spacecraft trajectory; and (3) incorporating Doppler data weighting functions that are functions of elevation angle, which reduce the sensitivity of the estimated spacecraft trajectory to troposphere and ionosphere calibration errors. The analysis is motivated by the need to develop suitable weighting functions for two-way Doppler data acquired at 8.4 GHz (X-band) and 32 GHz (Ka-band). This weighting is likely to be different from that in the weighting functions currently in use; the current functions were constructed originally for use with 2.3 GHz (S-band) Doppler data, which are affected much more strongly by the ionosphere than are the higher frequency data.

Ulvestad, J. S.↗