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At least 271 records · Page 15

A Dose of Reality: Radiation Analysis for Realistic Human Spacecraft

INTRODUCTION As with most computational analyses, a tradeoff exists between problem complexity, resource availability and response accuracy when modeling radiation transport from the source to a detector. The largest amount of analyst time for setting up an analysis is often spent ensuring that any simplifications made have minimal impact on the results. The vehicle shield geometry of interest is typically simplified from the original CAD design in order to reduce computation time, but this simplification requires the analyst to "re-draw" the geometry with a limited set of volumes in order to accommodate a specific radiation transport software package. The resulting low-fidelity geometry model cannot be shared with or compared to other radiation transport software packages, and the process can be error prone with increased model complexity. The work presented here demonstrates the use of the DAGMC (Direct Accelerated Geometry for Monte Carlo) Toolkit from the University of Wisconsin, to model the impacts of several space radiation sources on a CAD drawing of the US Lab module. METHODS The DAGMC toolkit workflow begins with the export of an existing CAD geometry from the native CAD to the ACIS format. The ACIS format file is then cleaned using SpaceClaim to remove small holes and component overlaps. Metadata is then assigned to the cleaned geometry file using CUBIT/Trelis from csimsoft (Registered Trademark). The DAGMC plugin script removes duplicate shared surfaces, facets the geometry to a specified tolerance, and ensures that the faceted geometry is water tight. This step also writes the material and scoring information to a standard input file format that the analyst can alter as desired prior to running the radiation transport program. The scoring results can be transformed, via python script, into a 3D format that is viewable in a standard graphics program. RESULTS The CAD model of the US Lab module of the International Space Station, inclusive of all the racks and components, was simplified to remove holes and volume overlaps. Problematic features within the drawing were also removed or repaired to prevent runtime issues. The cleaned drawing was then run through the DAGMC workflow to prepare for analysis. Pilot tests modeling transport of 1GeV proton and 800MeV/A oxygen sources show that reasonable results are converged upon in an acceptable amount of overall computation time from drawing preparation to data analysis. The FLUKA radiation transport code will next be used to model both a GCR and a trapped radiation source. These results will then be compared with measurements that have been made by the radiation instrumentation deployed inside the US Lab module. DISCUSSION Early analyses have indicated that the DAGMC workflow is a promising toolkit for running vehicle geometries of interest to NASA through multiple radiation transport codes. In addition, recent work has shown that a realistic human phantom, provided via a subcontract with the University of Florida, can be placed inside any vehicle geometry for a combinatorial analysis. This added functionality gives the user the ability to score various parameters at the organ level, and the results can then be used as input for cancer risk models.

Barzilla, J. E.↗

Flood basalts and extinction events

The largest known effusive eruptions during the Cenozoic and Mesozoic Eras, the voluminous flood basalts, have long been suspected as being associated with major extinctions of biotic species. Despite the possible errors attached to the dates in both time series of events, the significance level of the suspected correlation is found here to be 1 percent to 4 percent. Statistically, extinctions lag eruptions by a mean time interval that is indistinguishable from zero, being much less than the average residual derived from the correlation analysis. Oceanic flood basalts, however, must have had a different biological impact, which is still uncertain owing to the small number of known examples and differing physical factors. Although not all continental flood basalts can have produced major extinction events, the noncorrelating eruptions may have led to smaller marine extinction events that terminated at least some of the less catastrophically ending geologic stages. Consequently, the 26 Myr quasi-periodicity seen in major marine extinctions may be only a sampling effect, rather than a manifestation of underlying periodicity.

Stothers, Richard B.↗

Effects of upstream-biased third-order space correction terms on multidimensional Crowley advection schemes

The impact of upstream-biased corrections for third-order spatial truncation error on the stability and phase error of the two-dimensional Crowley combined advective scheme with the cross-space term included is analyzed, putting primary emphasis on phase error reduction. The various versions of the Crowley scheme are formally defined, and their stability and phase error characteristics are intercompared using a linear Fourier component analysis patterned after Fromm (1968, 1969). The performances of the schemes under prototype simulation conditions are tested using time-dependent numerical experiments which advect an initially cone-shaped passive scalar distribution in each of three steady nondivergent flows. One such flow is solid rotation, while the other two are diagonal uniform flow and a strongly deformational vortex.

Schlesinger, R. E.↗

Shuttle Debris Impact Tool Assessment Using the Modern Design of Experiments

Computational tools have been developed to estimate thermal and mechanical reentry loads experienced by the Space Shuttle Orbiter as the result of cavities in the Thermal Protection System (TPS). Such cavities can be caused by impact from ice or insulating foam debris shed from the External Tank (ET) on liftoff. The reentry loads depend on cavity geometry and certain Shuttle state variables, among other factors. Certain simplifying assumptions have been made in the tool development about the cavity geometry variables. For example, the cavities are all modeled as shoeboxes , with rectangular cross-sections and planar walls. So an actual cavity is typically approximated with an idealized cavity described in terms of its length, width, and depth, as well as its entry angle, exit angle, and side angles (assumed to be the same for both sides). As part of a comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty in reentry loads estimated by the debris impact assessment tools, an effort has been initiated to quantify the component of the uncertainty that is due to imperfect geometry specifications for the debris impact cavities. The approach is to compute predicted loads for a set of geometry factor combinations sufficient to develop polynomial approximations to the complex, nonparametric underlying computational models. Such polynomial models are continuous and feature estimable, continuous derivatives, conditions that facilitate the propagation of independent variable errors. As an additional benefit, once the polynomial models have been developed, they require fewer computational resources to execute than the underlying finite element and computational fluid dynamics codes, and can generate reentry loads estimates in significantly less time. This provides a practical screening capability, in which a large number of debris impact cavities can be quickly classified either as harmless, or subject to additional analysis with the more comprehensive underlying computational tools. The polynomial models also provide useful insights into the sensitivity of reentry loads to various cavity geometry variables, and reveal complex interactions among those variables that indicate how the sensitivity of one variable depends on the level of one or more other variables. For example, the effect of cavity length on certain reentry loads depends on the depth of the cavity. Such interactions are clearly displayed in the polynomial response models.

DeLoach, R.↗

Transfer Trajectory Options for Servicing Sun-Earth-Moon Libration Point Missions

Future missions to the Sun-Earth Libration L1 and L2 regions will require scheduled servicing to maintain hardware and replenish consumables. While there have been statements made by various NASA programs regarding servicing of vehicles at these locations or in Cis-lunar space, a practical transfer study has not been extensively investigated in an operational fashion to determine the impacts of navigation and maneuver errors. This investigation uses dynamical systems and operational models to design transfer trajectories between the Sun-Earth Libration region (QuasiHalo orbit) and the Earth-Moon vicinity (Distant Retrograde Orbit, QuasiHalo Orbit, Halo Orbit, and Near Rectilinear Halo Orbit). We address the total ΔV cost of transfers and operational considerations between each pair of locations using a Monte Carlo analysis.

Folta, David C.↗

Comparative analysis of operational forecasts versus actual weather conditions in airline flight planning, volume 3

The impact of more timely and accurate weather data on airline flight planning with the emphasis on fuel savings is studied. This volume of the report discusses the results of Task 3 of the four major tasks included in the study. Task 3 compares flight plans developed on the Suitland forecast with actual data observed by the aircraft (and averaged over 10 degree segments). The results show that the average difference between the forecast and observed wind speed is 9 kts. without considering direction, and the average difference in the component of the forecast wind parallel to the direction of the observed wind is 13 kts. - both indicating that the Suitland forecast underestimates the wind speeds. The Root Mean Square (RMS) vector error is 30.1 kts. The average absolute difference in direction between the forecast and observed wind is 26 degrees and the temperature difference is 3 degree Centigrade. These results indicate that the forecast model as well as the verifying analysis used to develop comparison flight plans in Tasks 1 and 2 is a limiting factor and that the average potential fuel savings or penalty are up to 3.6 percent depending on the direction of flight.

Keitz, J. F.↗

Determination of Barometric Altimeter Errors for the Orion Exploration Flight Test-1 Entry

The Exploration Flight Test 1 (EFT-1) mission is the unmanned flight test for the upcoming Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV). During entry, the EFT-1 vehicle will trigger several Landing and Recovery System (LRS) events, such as parachute deployment, based on on-board altitude information. The primary altitude source is the filtered navigation solution updated with GPS measurement data. The vehicle also has three barometric altimeters that will be used to measure atmospheric pressure during entry. In the event that GPS data is not available during entry, the altitude derived from the barometric altimeter pressure will be used to trigger chute deployment for the drogues and main parachutes. Therefore it is important to understand the impact of error sources on the pressure measured by the barometric altimeters and on the altitude derived from that pressure. The error sources for the barometric altimeters are not independent, and many error sources result in bias in a specific direction. Therefore conventional error budget methods could not be applied. Instead, high fidelity Monte-Carlo simulation was performed and error bounds were determined based on the results of this analysis. Aerodynamic errors were the largest single contributor to the error budget for the barometric altimeters. The large errors drove a change to the altitude trigger setpoint for FBC jettison deploy.

Brown, Denise L.↗

A Comparison of Center/TRACON Automation System and Airline Time of Arrival Predictions

Benefits from information sharing between an air traffic service provider and a major air carrier are evaluated. Aircraft arrival time schedules generated by the NASA/FAA Center/TRACON Automation System (CTAS) were provided to the American Airlines System Operations Control Center in Fort Worth, Texas, during a field trial of a specialized CTAS display. A statistical analysis indicates that the CTAS schedules, based on aircraft trajectories predicted from real-time radar and weather data, are substantially more accurate than the traditional airline arrival time estimates, constructed from flight plans and en route crew updates. The improvement offered by CTAS is especially advantageous during periods of heavy traffic and substantial terminal area delay, allowing the airline to avoid large predictive errors with serious impact on the efficiency and profitability of flight operations.

Heere, Karen R.↗

A Climatology of Midlatitude Continental Clouds from the ARM SGP Site: Cloud Fraction and Surface Radiative Forcing - Part II

Data collected at the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) Central Facility (SCF) are analyzed to determine the monthly and hourly variations of cloud fraction and radiative forcing between January 1997 and December 2002. Cloud fractions are estimated for total cloud cover and for single-layered low (0-3 km), middle (3-6 km), and high clouds (more than 6 km) using ARM SCG ground-based paired lidar-radar measurements. Shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) fluxes are derived from up- and down-looking standard precision spectral pyranometers and precision infrared radiometer measurements with uncertainties of approximately 10 Wm(exp -2). The annual averages of total, and single-layered low, middle and high cloud fractions are 0.49, 0.11, 0.03, and 0.17, respectively. Both total and low cloud amounts peak during January and February and reach a minimum during July and August, high clouds occur more frequently than other types of clouds with a peak in summer. The average annual downwelling surface SW fluxes for total and low clouds (151 and 138 Wm(exp-2), respectively) are less than those under middle and high clouds (188 and 201 Wm(exp -2), respectively), but the downwelling LW fluxes (349 and 356 Wm(exp -2)) underneath total and low clouds are greater than those from middle and high clouds (337 and 333 Wm(exp -2)). Low clouds produce the largest LW warming (55 Wm(exp -2) and SW cooling (-91 Wm(exp -2)) effects with maximum and minimum absolute values in spring and summer, respectively. High clouds have the smallest LW warming (17 Wm(exp -2)) and SW cooling (-37 Wm(exp -2)) effects at the surface. All-sky SW CRF decreases and LW CRF increases with increasing cloud fraction with mean slopes of -0.984 and 0.616 Wm(exp -2)%(exp -1), respectively. Over the entire diurnal cycle, clouds deplete the amount of surface insolation more than they add to the downwelling LW flux. The calculated CRFs do not appear to be significantly affected by uncertainties in data sampling and clear-sky screening. Traditionally, cloud radiative forcing includes, not only the radiative impact of the hydrometeors, but also the changes in the environment. Taken together over the ARM SCF, changes in humidity and surface albedo between clear and cloudy conditions offset approximately 20% of the NET radiative forcing caused by the cloud hydrometeors alone. Variations in water vapor, on average, account for 10% and 83% of the SW and LW CRFs, respectively, in total cloud cover conditions. The error analysis further reveals that the cloud hydrometeors dominate the SW CRF, while water vapor changes are most important for LW flux changes in cloudy skies. Similar studies over other locales are encouraged where water and surface albedo changes from clear to cloudy conditions may be much different than observed over the ARM SCF.

Xi, B.↗

Observation Impact and Information Retention in the Lower Troposphere of the GMAO GEOS Data Assimilation System

In this study, we have assessed the effectiveness of the use of existing observing systems in the lower troposphere in the GEOS hybrid–4DEnVar data assimilation system through a set of observing system experiments. The results show that microwave radiances have a large impact in the Southern Hemisphere and Tropical ocean, but the large influence is mostly observed above 925 hPa and dissipates relatively quickly with longer forecast lead times. Conventional data information holds better in the forecast ranging from the surface to 100 hPa, depending on the field evaluated, in the Northern Hemisphere and lowest model levels in the Tropics. Infrared radiances collectively have much less impact in the lower troposphere. Removing surface observations has small but persistent impact on specific humidity in the upper atmosphere, but small or negligible impact on planetary boundary layer (PBL) height and temperature. The model responses to the incremental analysis update (IAU) forcing are also analyzed. In the IAU assimilation window, the physics responds strongly to the IAU forcing in the lower troposphere, and the changes of physics tendency in the lower troposphere and hydrodynamics tendency in the mid- and upper troposphere are viewed as beneficial to the reduction of state error covariance. In the subsequent forecast, the model tendencies continue to deviate further from the original free forecast with forecast lead times around 300–400 hPa, but physics tendency has showed signs of returning to its original free forecast mechanisms at 1-day forecast in the lower troposphere.

GEOS↗

Evaluation of Systematic Errors on Polarization Parameters from POLDER Instrument Data for Use In CLARREO Pathfinder-VIIRS Intercalibration

One of the CLARREO Pathfinder (CPF) mission’s science objectives is to intercalibrate the reflective solar bands of the NOAA-20 VIIRS instrument against high-accuracy CPF measurements utilizing coincident, co-angled, and co-located footprints acquired over diverse Earth targets. To alleviate the effect of high polarization sensitivity of select VIIRS channels on intercalibration analysis, the CPF team will limit the intercalibration footprints over low-polarized scene types, which will be identified based on an empirical estimation of their degree and angle of polarization (DOP and AOP) using POLDER data. This paper describes the methodology for evaluating systematic errors in the estimation of DOP and AOP for Earth-reflected radiances using POLDER’s polarized bands and investigates their potential impact on CPF-VIIRS intercalibration uncertainty. The systematic errors were found to be less than 0.01 for DOP and less than 2.2 deg. for AOP, which will have a negligible impact on CPF-VIIRS intercalibration uncertainty.

polarization↗

Sensitivity of Lower Stratospheric Assimilated Ozone on Error Covariance Modeling and Data Selection

Assimilated ozone is produced at the NASA/Goddard Data Assimilation Office by blending ozone retrieved from the Solar Backscatter UltraViolet/2 (SBUV/2) instrument and the Earth Probe Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (EP TOMS) measurements into an off-line transport model. The current system tends to overestimate the amount of lower stratospheric ozone. This is a region where ozone plays a key role in the forcing of climate. A biased ozone field in this region will adversely impact calculations of the stratosphere-troposphere exchange and, when used as a first guess in retrievals, the values determined from satellite observations. Since these are all important applications of assimilated ozone products, effort is being directed towards reducing this bias. The SBUV ozone data have a coarse vertical resolution with increased uncertainty below the ozone maximum, and TOMS provides only total ozone columns. Thus, the assimilated ozone in the lower stratosphere, and its vertical distribution in particular, are only weakly constrained by the incoming SBUV and TOMS data. Consequently, the assimilated ozone distribution should be sensitive to changes in inputs to the statistical analysis scheme. Accordingly, the sensitivity of the assimilated lower stratospheric ozone fields to changes in the TOMS error-covariance modeling and the SBUV data selection has been investigated. The use of a spatially correlated TOMS error covariance model led to improvements in the product. However, withholding the SBUV/2 data for the layer between 63 and 126 hPa typically degraded the product, a result which vindicates the use of this layer ozone product, despite its known errors. These efforts to improve the lower stratospheric distribution will be extended to include a more advanced forecast error covariance model, and by assimilating ozone products from new instruments on Envisat and EOS Aura.

Stajner, Ivanka↗

Cross Section Sensitivity and Propagated Errors in HZE Exposures

It has long been recognized that galactic cosmic rays are of such high energy that they tend to pass through available shielding materials resulting in exposure of astronauts and equipment within space vehicles and habitats. Any protection provided by shielding materials result not so much from stopping such particles but by changing their physical character in interaction with shielding material nuclei forming, hopefully, less dangerous species. Clearly, the fidelity of the nuclear cross-sections is essential to correct specification of shield design and sensitivity to cross-section error is important in guiding experimental validation of cross-section models and database. We examine the Boltzmann transport equation which is used to calculate dose equivalent during solar minimum, with units (cSv/yr), associated with various depths of shielding materials. The dose equivalent is a weighted sum of contributions from neutrons, protons, light ions, medium ions and heavy ions. We investigate the sensitivity of dose equivalent calculations due to errors in nuclear fragmentation cross-sections. We do this error analysis for all possible projectile-fragment combinations (14,365 such combinations) to estimate the sensitivity of the shielding calculations to errors in the nuclear fragmentation cross-sections. Numerical differentiation with respect to the cross-sections will be evaluated in a broad class of materials including polyethylene, aluminum and copper. We will identify the most important cross-sections for further experimental study and evaluate their impact on propagated errors in shielding estimates.

Heinbockel, John H.↗

The OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return Mission Operations Design

OSIRIS-REx is an acronym that captures the scientific objectives: Origins, Spectral Interpretation, Resource Identification, and Security-Regolith Explorer. OSIRIS-REx will thoroughly characterize near-Earth asteroid Bennu (Previously known as 1019551999 RQ36). The OSIRIS-REx Asteroid Sample Return Mission delivers its science using five instruments and radio science along with the Touch-And-Go Sample Acquisition Mechanism (TAGSAM). All of the instruments and data analysis techniques have direct heritage from flown planetary missions. The OSIRIS-REx mission employs a methodical, phased approach to ensure success in meeting the mission's science requirements. OSIRIS-REx launches in September 2016, with a backup launch period occurring one year later. Sampling occurs in 2019. The departure burn from Bennu occurs in March 2021. On September 24, 2023, the Sample Return Capsule (SRC) lands at the Utah Test and Training Range (UTTR). Stardust heritage procedures are followed to transport the SRC to Johnson Space Center, where the samples are removed and delivered to the OSIRIS-REx curation facility. After a six-month preliminary examination period the mission will produce a catalog of the returned sample, allowing the worldwide community to request samples for detailed analysis. Traveling and returning a sample from an Asteroid that has not been explored before requires unique operations consideration. The Design Reference Mission (DRM) ties together spacecraft, instrument and operations scenarios. Asteroid Touch and Go (TAG) has various options varying from ground only to fully automated (natural feature tracking). Spacecraft constraints such as thermo and high gain antenna pointing impact the timeline. The mission is sensitive to navigation errors, so a late command update has been implemented. The project implemented lessons learned from other "small body" missions. The key lesson learned was 'expect the unexpected' and implement planning tools early in the lifecycle. This paper summarizes the ground and spacecraft design as presented at OSIRIS-REx Critical Design Review(CDR) held April 2014.

mission operations↗

Common Mode Current Challenges and Opportunities in Electric Powertrain Testing

During the development of novel electric powertrain (EP) components key parameters may be evaluated by test before a fully integrated EMI design is implemented. However, insufficiently mitigated EMI could impact the test equipment and test measurements. This risk is particularly valid with high voltage wide bandgap switching converters which enable high efficiency but can increase the EMI source function producing high levels of common mode (CM) current. Test facility equipment may be susceptible to the CM current from these converters causing test delays or measurement errors. Characterization of the common mode EMI of a powertrain component by analysis and/or measurement and assessment of the test facility EMC design can reduce this risk to yield efficient tests and successful measurements.

electromagnetic interference↗

Resolving the Puzzle of MS1248-7+5706

The X-ray source MS1248.7+5706 has been identified as a radio-quiet quasar at z=1.84, making it an ideal object for investigating the X-ray spectral evolution of radio-quiet quasars. However. spectral modeling of our ASCA observation of this X-ray source indicated that it might be confused by or misidentified with, a nearby K5V star. A high-resolution X-ray image has been obtained with the ROSAT HRI to enable us to interpret our ASCA spectra. An analysis of the new HRI observation shows that the X-ray source in the ASCA error circle most closely coincides with the position of the K5V star. It therefore appears that the identification of MS1248.7+5706 with a z=1.84 quasar is incorrect. Since MS1248.7+5706 is the second most luminous quasar in the Einstein Medium Sensitivity Survey, the bright end of the EMSS luminosity function will be impacted.

Aldcroft, Thomas↗

Estimated Probability of a Cervical Spine Injury During an ISS Mission

Introduction: The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) utilizes historical data, cohort data, and external simulations as input factors to provide estimates of crew health, resource utilization and mission outcomes. The Cervical Spine Injury Module (CSIM) is an external simulation designed to provide the IMM with parameter estimates for 1) a probability distribution function (PDF) of the incidence rate, 2) the mean incidence rate, and 3) the standard deviation associated with the mean resulting from injury/trauma of the neck. Methods: An injury mechanism based on an idealized low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax of an ISS crewmember was used as the simulated mission environment. As a result of this impact, the cervical spine is inertially loaded from the mass of the head producing an extension-flexion motion deforming the soft tissues of the neck. A multibody biomechanical model was developed to estimate the kinematic and dynamic response of the head-neck system from a prescribed acceleration profile. Logistic regression was performed on a dataset containing AIS1 soft tissue neck injuries from rear-end automobile collisions with published Neck Injury Criterion values producing an injury transfer function (ITF). An injury event scenario (IES) was constructed such that crew 1 is moving through a primary or standard translation path transferring large volume equipment impacting stationary crew 2. The incidence rate for this IES was estimated from in-flight data and used to calculate the probability of occurrence. The uncertainty in the model input factors were estimated from representative datasets and expressed in terms of probability distributions. A Monte Carlo Method utilizing simple random sampling was employed to propagate both aleatory and epistemic uncertain factors. Scatterplots and partial correlation coefficients (PCC) were generated to determine input factor sensitivity. CSIM was developed in the SimMechanics/Simulink environment with a Monte Carlo wrapper (MATLAB) used to integrate the components of the module. Results: The probability of generating an AIS1 soft tissue neck injury from the extension/flexion motion induced by a low-velocity blunt impact to the superior posterior thorax was fitted with a lognormal PDF with mean 0.26409, standard deviation 0.11353, standard error of mean 0.00114, and 95% confidence interval [0.26186, 0.26631]. Combining the probability of an AIS1 injury with the probability of IES occurrence was fitted with a Johnson SI PDF with mean 0.02772, standard deviation 0.02012, standard error of mean 0.00020, and 95% confidence interval [0.02733, 0.02812]. The input factor sensitivity analysis in descending order was IES incidence rate, ITF regression coefficient 1, impactor initial velocity, ITF regression coefficient 2, and all others (equipment mass, crew 1 body mass, crew 2 body mass) insignificant. Verification and Validation (V&V): The IMM V&V, based upon NASA STD 7009, was implemented which included an assessment of the data sets used to build CSIM. The documentation maintained includes source code comments and a technical report. The software code and documentation is under Subversion configuration management. Kinematic validation was performed by comparing the biomechanical model output to established corridors.

Brooker, John E.↗

A Celestial Reference Frame Based on Kalman Filtering

In this study, we investigate a novel approach to the determination of celestial reference frames (CRF). Instead of a constant model for radio sources positions, we adopt a time series representation, which allows temporal variations of radio source coordinates to be taken into account. In particular, the added flexibility is beneficial for radio sources with extended structure. We compute our time series-based CRF solutions by Kalman filtering and smoothing radio source positions, which are initially obtained from single-session VLBI analysis. The temporal resolution of the estimated CRF coordinates is identical to that of the input data, i.e. usually 1-4 days. The magnitude of the coordinate variations is controlled by the amount of process noise applied in the filter, which is in turn derived from analyzing the Allan standard deviation of the corresponding radio source coordinate time series. Measures have been developed to reduce the impact of observation errors and datum effects on the noise model.

Soja, B.↗