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NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainty Quantification of a Rotorcraft Conceptual Sizing Toolsuite

A computational framework to support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities for rotorcraft applications is presented using the NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft (NDARC) conceptual sizing tool. A 90 passenger conceptual tiltrotor configuration was used for case demonstration in the modeling of uncertainties in NDARCs emission module. A non-intrusive forward propagation uncertainty quantification approach was applied to ensemble simulations using a Monte Carlo methodology with stratified Latin hypercube sampling. An off-the-shelf software, DAKOTA, which supports trade studies and design space exploration, including optimization, surrogate modeling and uncertainty analysis was used to address the research goals. A toolsuite was further developed incorporating DAKOTA with automated design processes and methods using function wrappers to execute program routines including support for data post-processing. Uncertainties in rotorcraft emissions modeling using the Average Temperature Response metric for a set mission profile were studied. It was shown that for the current study, using the base-line best estimate modeling parameters for the Average Temperature Response metric, NDARC under-estimates the effects of emissions when compared with results from Monte Carlo simulations. A global sensitivity analysis was further undertaken to quantify the contribution of the various emission species on output sensitivity, hence uncertainty. The work demonstrates that the developed toolsuite is robust and will support the quantification of system uncertainties and sensitivities in future rotorcraft design efforts.

Rotorcraft↗

NASA NTRS1991

Signal processing of aircraft flyover noise

A detailed analysis of signal processing concerns for measuring aircraft flyover noise is presented. Development of a de-Dopplerization scheme for both corrected time history and spectral data is discussed along with an analysis of motion effects on measured spectra. A computer code was written to implement the de-Dopplerization scheme. Input to the code is the aircraft position data and the pressure time histories. To facilitate ensemble averaging, a uniform level flyover is considered but the code can accept more general flight profiles. The effects of spectral smearing and its removal is discussed. Using data acquired from XV-15 tilt rotor flyover test comparisons are made showing the measured and corrected spectra. Frequency shifts are accurately accounted for by the method. It is shown that correcting for spherical spreading, Doppler amplitude, and frequency can give some idea about source directivity. The analysis indicated that smearing increases with frequency and is more severe on approach than recession.

Kelly, Jeffrey J.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Theoretical Investigation of Wave-Vector-Dependent Analytical and Numerical Formulations of the Interband Impact-Ionization Transition Rate for Electron in Bulk Silicon and GaAs

The electron interband impact-ionization rate for both silicon and gallium arsenide is calculated using an ensemble Monte Carlo simulation with the expressed purpose of comparing different formulations of the interband ionization transition rate. Specifically, three different treatments of the transition rate are examined: the traditional Keldysh formula, a new k-dependent analytical formulation first derived by W. Quade, E Scholl, and M. Rudan, and a more exact, numerical method of Y. Wang and K. F. Brennan. Although the completely numerical formulation contains no adjustable parameters and as such provides a very reliable result, it is highly computationally intensive. Alternatively, the Keldysh formula, although inherently simple and computationally efficient, fails to include the k dependence as well as the details of the energy band structure. The k-dependent analytical formulation of Quade and co-workers overcomes the limitations of both of these models but at the expense of some new parameterization. It is found that the k-dependent analytical method of Quade and co-workers produces very similar results to those obtained with (he completely numerical model for some quantities. Specifically, both models predict that the effective threshold for impact ionization in GaAs and silicon is quite soft, that the majority of ionization events originate from the second conduction band in both materials, and that the transition rate is k dependent. Therefore, it is concluded that the k-dependent analytical model can qualitatively reproduce results similar to those obtained with the numerical model yet with far greater computational efficiency. Nevertheless, there exist some important drawbacks to the k-dependent analytical model of Quade and co-workers: These are that it does not accurately reproduce the quantum yield data for bulk silicon, it requires determination of a new parameter, related physically to (he overlap integrals of the Bloch state which can only be adjusted by comparison to experiment, and fails to account for any wave-vector dependence of the overlap integrals. As such [he transition rate may be overestimated at those points for which "near vertical," small change in k, transitions occur.

Kolnik, Jan↗

NASA NTRS2013

High resolution wind measurements for offshore wind energy development

A method, apparatus, system, article of manufacture, and computer readable storage medium provide the ability to measure wind. Data at a first resolution (i.e., low resolution data) is collected by a satellite scatterometer. Thin slices of the data are determined. A collocation of the data slices are determined at each grid cell center to obtain ensembles of collocated data slices. Each ensemble of collocated data slices is decomposed into a mean part and a fluctuating part. The data is reconstructed at a second resolution from the mean part and a residue of the fluctuating part. A wind measurement is determined from the data at the second resolution using a wind model function. A description of the wind measurement is output.

Nghiem, Son Van↗

NASA NTRS2019

Assimilation of Aerosol Observations in the NASA GEOS Model

In the GEOS near real-time system, as well as in MERRA-2 which is the latest reanalysis produced at NASA's Global Modeling Assimilation Office (GMAO), the assimilation of aerosol observations is performed by means of a so-called analysis splitting method. The prognostic model is based on the GEOS model radiatively coupled to GOCART aerosol module and includes assimilation of bias-corrected Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) at 550 nm from various space-based remote sensing platforms. In line with the transition of the GEOS meteorological data assimilation system to a hybrid Ensemble-Variational formulation, we are updating the aerosol component of our assimilation system to a variational ensemble type of scheme. In this talk we will examine the impact of replacing the current analysis splitting scheme with this new approach. Starting with the assimilation of satellite based single-channel retrievals; we will discuss the impact of this aerosol data assimilation technique on the 3D aerosol distributions by means of innovation statistics and verification against independent datasets such as the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and surface PM2.5. We will also present preliminary results related to the introduction of new aerosol data types in GEOS, including multi-spectral AOD retrievals.

AERONET↗

NASA NTRS1992

Buckling of stiffened shells with random initial imperfections, thickness and boundary conditions

The paper proposes a method to predict the buckling load of stiffened, composite shells reliably, where besides the randomness of the initial geometric imperfections also a random variation of the wall thickness and the uncertainty of the precise edge conditions is included in the analysis. The introduction of the variability in the thickness from shell to shell, in an ensemble of nominally identical shells, produced by the same manufacturing procedure is motivated by the growing realization of the importance of thickness variations by composite shells. The probabilistic treatment of the boundary conditions is dictated by the fact that 'true', deterministically specified boundary conditions are unlikely to be realizable in practice.

Elishakoff, I.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Theoretical investigation of wave-vector-dependent analytical and numerical formulations of the interband impact-ionization transition rate for electrons in bulk silicon and GaAs

The electron interband impact-ionization rate for both silicon and gallium arsenide is calculated using an ensemble Monte Carlo simulation with the expressed purpose of comparing different formulations of the interband ionization transition rate. Specifically, three different treatments of the transition rate are examined: the traditional Keldysh formula, a new k-dependent analytical formulation first derived by W. Quade, E. Scholl, and M. Rudan (1993), and a more exact, numerical method of Y. Wang and K. F. Brennan (1994). Although the completely numerical formulation contains no adjustable parameters and as such provides a very reliable result, it is highly computationally intensive. Alternatively, the Keldysh formular, although inherently simple and computationally efficient, fails to include the k dependence as well as the details of the energy band structure. The k-dependent analytical formulation of Quade and co-workers overcomes the limitations of both of these models but at the expense of some new parameterization. It is found that the k-dependent analytical method of Quade and co-workers produces very similar results to those obtained with the completely numerical model for some quantities. Specifically, both models predict that the effective threshold for impact ionization in GaAs and silicon is quite soft, that the majority of ionization events originate from the second conduction band in both materials, and that the transition rate is k dependent. Therefore, it is concluded that the k-dependent analytical model can qualitatively reproduce results similar to those obtained with the numerical model yet with far greater computational efficiency. Nevertheless, there exist some important drawbacks to the k-dependent analytical model of Quade and co-workers: These are that it does not accurately reproduce the quantum yield data for bulk silicon, it requires determination of a new parameter, related physically to the overlap intergrals of the Bloch state which can only be adjusted by comparison to experiment, and fails to account for any wave-vector dependence of the overlap integrals. As such the transition rate may be overestimated at those points for which 'near vertical,' small change in k, transitions occur.

Kolnik, Jan↗

NASA NTRS2011

Estimated Accuracy of Three Common Trajectory Statistical Methods

Three well-known trajectory statistical methods (TSMs), namely concentration field (CF), concentration weighted trajectory (CWT), and potential source contribution function (PSCF) methods were tested using known sources and artificially generated data sets to determine the ability of TSMs to reproduce spatial distribution of the sources. In the works by other authors, the accuracy of the trajectory statistical methods was estimated for particular species and at specified receptor locations. We have obtained a more general statistical estimation of the accuracy of source reconstruction and have found optimum conditions to reconstruct source distributions of atmospheric trace substances. Only virtual pollutants of the primary type were considered. In real world experiments, TSMs are intended for application to a priori unknown sources. Therefore, the accuracy of TSMs has to be tested with all possible spatial distributions of sources. An ensemble of geographical distributions of virtual sources was generated. Spearman s rank order correlation coefficient between spatial distributions of the known virtual and the reconstructed sources was taken to be a quantitative measure of the accuracy. Statistical estimates of the mean correlation coefficient and a range of the most probable values of correlation coefficients were obtained. All the TSMs that were considered here showed similar close results. The maximum of the ratio of the mean correlation to the width of the correlation interval containing the most probable correlation values determines the optimum conditions for reconstruction. An optimal geographical domain roughly coincides with the area supplying most of the substance to the receptor. The optimal domain s size is dependent on the substance decay time. Under optimum reconstruction conditions, the mean correlation coefficients can reach 0.70 0.75. The boundaries of the interval with the most probable correlation values are 0.6 0.9 for the decay time of 240 h and 0.5 0.95 for the decay time of 12 h. The best results of source reconstruction can be expected for the trace substances with a decay time on the order of several days. Although the methods considered in this paper do not guarantee high accuracy they are computationally simple and fast. Using the TSMs in optimum conditions and taking into account the range of uncertainties, one can obtain a first hint on potential source areas.

Kabashnikov, Vitaliy P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A two-dimensional numerical study of the flow inside the combustion chambers of a motored rotary engine

A numerical study was performed to investigate the unsteady, multidimensional flow inside the combustion chambers of an idealized, two-dimensional, rotary engine under motored conditions. The numerical study was based on the time-dependent, two-dimensional, density-weighted, ensemble-averaged conservation equations of mass, species, momentum, and total energy valid for two-component ideal gas mixtures. The ensemble-averaged conservation equations were closed by a K-epsilon model of turbulence. This K-epsilon model of turbulence was modified to account for some of the effects of compressibility, streamline curvature, low-Reynolds number, and preferential stress dissipation. Numerical solutions to the conservation equations were obtained by the highly efficient implicit-factored method of Beam and Warming. The grid system needed to obtain solutions were generated by an algebraic grid generation technique based on transfinite interpolation. Results of the numerical study are presented in graphical form illustrating the flow patterns during intake, compression, gaseous fuel injection, expansion, and exhaust.

Shih, T. I. P.↗

NASA NTRS1986

A two-dimensional numerical study of the flow inside the combustion chamber of a motored rotary engine

Shih, T. I-P.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Use of the surface wind field as a predictor of thunderstorms and cloud-to-ground lightning at Kennedy Space Center

The convergence-lightning nowcasting method that began to be operationally tested and evaluated by USAF personnel at the KSC in 1986 uses surface convergence, especially the areal average, to identify the potential for new thunderstorm growth. When this areal method fails, normalized cell convergence, which is defined as the integral of cellular convergence with respect to its area, can be used as a complementary technique in association with the areal one. A detailed examination is conducted for one day, and the relationship of normalized cell convergence to lightning flash counts is examined in a 68-day ensemble.

Watson, Andrew I.↗

NASA NTRS2019

State Predictor of Classification Cognitive Engine Applied to Channel Fading

This study presents the application of machine learning (ML) to a space-to-ground communication link, showing how ML can be used to detect the presence of detrimental channel fading. Using this channel state information, the communication link can be used more efficiently by reducing the amount of lost data during fading. The motivation for this work is based on channel fading observed during on-orbit operations with NASA's Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) testbed on the International Space Station (ISS). This paper presents the process to extract a target concept (fading and not-fading) from the raw data. The pre-processing and data exploration effort is explained in detail, with a list of assumptions made for parsing and labelling the dataset. The model selection process is explained, specifically emphasizing the benefits of using an ensemble of algorithms with majority voting for binary classification of the channel state. Experimental results are shown, highlighting how an end-to-end communication system can utilize knowledge of the channel fading status to identity fading and take appropriate action. With a laboratory testbed to emulate channel fading, the overall performance is compared to standard adaptive methods without fading knowledge, such as adaptive coding and modulation.

Fading↗

NASA NTRS2016

Polarized Radiative Transfer of a Cirrus Cloud Consisting of Randomly Oriented Hexagonal Ice Crystals: The 3 x 3 Approximation for Non-Spherical Particles

The reflection and transmission of polarized light for a cirrus cloud consisting of randomly oriented hexagonal columns were calculated by two very different vector radiative transfer models. The forward peak of the phase function for the ensemble-averaged ice crystals has a value of order 6 x 10(exp 3) so a truncation procedure was used to help produce numerically efficient yet accurate results. One of these models, the Vectorized Line-by-Line Equivalent model (VLBLE), is based on the doubling- adding principle, while the other is based on a vector discrete ordinates method (VDISORT). A comparison shows that the two models provide very close although not entirely identical results, which can be explained by differences in treatment of single scattering and the representation of the scattering phase matrix. The relative differences in the reflected I and Q Stokes parameters are within 0.5 for I and within 1.5 for Q for all viewing angles. In 1971 Hansen showed that for scattering by spherical particles the 3 x 3 approximation is sufficient to produce accurate results for the reflected radiance I and the degree of polarization (DOP), and he conjectured that these results would hold also for non-spherical particles. Simulations were conducted to test Hansen's conjecture for the cirrus cloud particles considered in this study. It was found that the 3 x 3 approximation also gives accurate results for the transmitted light, and for Q and U in addition to I and DOP. For these non-spherical ice particles the 3 x 3 approximation leads to an absolute error 2 x 10(exp -6) for the reflected and transmitted I, Q and U Stokes parameters. Hence, it appears to be an excellent approximation, which significantly reduces the computational complexity and burden required for multiple scattering calculations.

Polarization↗

NASA NTRS1999

Potential Predictability of the Monsoon Subclimate Systems

While El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon can be predicted with some success using coupled oceanic-atmospheric models, the skill of predicting the tropical monsoons is low regardless of the methods applied. The low skill of monsoon prediction may be either because the monsoons are not defined appropriately or because they are not influenced significantly by boundary forcing. The latter characterizes the importance of internal dynamics in monsoon variability and leads to many eminent chaotic features of the monsoons. In this study, we analyze results from nine AMIP-type ensemble experiments with the NASA/GEOS-2 general circulation model to assess the potential predictability of the tropical climate system. We will focus on the variability and predictability of tropical monsoon rainfall on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. It is known that the tropical climate is more predictable than its extratropical counterpart. However, predictability is different from one climate subsystem to another within the tropics. It is important to understand the differences among these subsystems in order to increase our skill of seasonal-to-interannual prediction. We assess potential predictability by comparing the magnitude of internal and forced variances as defined by Harzallah and Sadourny (1995). The internal variance measures the spread among the various ensemble members. The forced part of rainfall variance is determined by the magnitude of the ensemble mean rainfall anomaly and by the degree of consistency of the results from the various experiments.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS1998

Effective Area of the AXAF High Resolution Camera (HRC)

The AXAF High-Resolution Camera (HRC) was calibrated at NASA MSFC's X-Ray Calibration Facility (XRCF) during 1997 March and April. We have undertaken an analysis of the HRC effective area using all data presently available from the XRCF. We discuss our spectral fitting of the beam-normalization detectors (BNDs), our method of removing higher order contamination lines present in the spectra, and corrections for beam non-uniformities. We apply a model of photon absorption depth in order to fit a smooth curve to the quantum efficiency of the detector. This is then combined with the most recent model of the AXAF High-Resolution Mirror Assembly (HRMA) to determine the ensemble effective area versus energy for the HRC. We also address future goals and concerns.

Patnaude, Daniel↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Effect of Stochastic Perturbation of Fuel Distribution on the Criticality of a One Speed Reactor and the Development of Multi-Material Multinomial Line Statistics

The effect of random fuel redistribution on the eigenvalue of a one-speed reactor is investigated. An ensemble of such reactors that are identical to a homogeneous reference critical reactor except for the fissile isotope density distribution is constructed such that it meets a set of well-posed redistribution requirements. The average eigenvalue, , is evaluated when the total fissile loading per ensemble element, or realization, is conserved. The perturbation is proven to increase the reactor criticality on average when it is uniformly distributed. The various causes of the change in reactivity, and their relative effects are identified and ranked. From this, a path towards identifying the causes. and relative effects of reactivity fluctuations for the energy dependent problem is pointed to. The perturbation method of using multinomial distributions for representing the perturbed reactor is developed. This method has some advantages that can be of use in other stochastic problems. Finally, some of the features of this perturbation problem are related to other techniques that have been used for addressing similar problems.

Jahshan, S. N.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Multichannel boxcar-averaged measurements of plasma parameters made using a digital storage scope

A technique for rapidly acquiring time-resolved, ensemble-averaged Langmuir probe characteristics is presented. Fifty probe characteristics are acquired using a digital storage oscilloscope in the time it would take to acquire a one-probe characteristic using a single-channel boxcar averager. A single Langmuir probe is used, and the probe bias is swept quite slowly, so that the probe is always in equilibrium with the plasma. A method for the automatic extraction of electron temperature, electron density, and the plasma potential from the acquired probe characteristics is described. This technique for acquisition and analysis is applied to the study of plasma decay and the effects of rf excitation in a pulsed, strongly magnetized plasma.

Sheridan, T. E.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Simulation of mixing in the quick quench region of a rich burn-quick quench mix-lean burn combustor

A computer program was developed to study the mixing process in the quick quench region of a rich burn-quick quench mix-lean burn combustor. The computer program developed was based on the density-weighted, ensemble-averaged conservation equations of mass, momentum (full compressible Navier-Stokes), total energy, and species, closed by a k-epsilon turbulence model with wall functions. The combustion process was modeled by a two-step global reaction mechanism, and NO(x) formation was modeled by the Zeldovich mechanism. The formulation employed in the computer program and the essence of the numerical method of solution are described. Some results obtained for nonreacting and reacting flows with different main-flow to dilution-jet momentum flux ratios are also presented.

Shih, Tom I.-P.↗