Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “ensemble methods”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Finite temperature auxiliary field quantum Monte Carlo in the canonical ensemble

Finite temperature auxiliary field-based quantum Monte Carlo methods, including determinant quantum Monte Carlo and Auxiliary Field Quantum Monte Carlo (AFQMC), have historically assumed pivotal roles in the investigation of the finite temperature phase diagrams of a wide variety of multidimensional lattice models and materials. Despite their utility, however, these techniques are typically formulated in the grand canonical ensemble, which makes them difficult to apply to condensates such as superfluids and difficult to benchmark against alternative methods that are formulated in the canonical ensemble. Working in the grand canonical ensemble is furthermore accompanied by the increased overhead associated with having to determine the chemical potentials that produce desired fillings. Given this backdrop, in this work, we present a new recursive approach for performing AFQMC simulations in the canonical ensemble that does not require knowledge of chemical potentials. To derive this approach, we exploit the convenient fact that AFQMC solves the many-body problem by decoupling many-body propagators into integrals over one-body problems to which non-interacting theories can be applied. We benchmark the accuracy of our technique on illustrative Bose and Fermi–Hubbard models and demonstrate that it can converge more quickly to the ground state than grand canonical AFQMC simulations. We believe that our novel use of HS-transformed operators to implement algorithms originally derived for non-interacting systems will motivate the development of a variety of other methods and anticipate that our technique will enable direct performance comparisons against other many-body approaches formulated in the canonical ensemble.

Shen, Tong (ORCID:0000000206292468)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Solving high-dimensional inverse problems using amortized likelihood-free inference with noisy and incomplete data

Here, we present a likelihood-free probabilistic inversion method based on normalizing flows for high-dimensional inverse problems. The proposed method is composed of two complementary networks: a summary network for data compression and an inference network for parameter estimation. The summary network encodes raw observations into a fixed-size vector of summary features, while the inference network generates samples of the approximate posterior distribution of the model parameters based on these summary features. The posterior samples are produced in a deep generative fashion by sampling from a latent Gaussian distribution and passing these samples through an invertible transformation. We construct this invertible transformation by sequentially alternating conditional invertible neural network and conditional neural spline flow layers. The summary and inference networks are trained simultaneously. We apply the proposed method to an inversion problem in groundwater hydrology to estimate the posterior distribution of the log-conductivity field conditioned on spatially sparse time-series observations of the system’s hydraulic head responses. The conductivity field is represented with 706 degrees of freedom in the considered problem. Comparison with the likelihood-based iterative ensemble smoother PEST-IES method demonstrates that the proposed method accurately estimates the parameter posterior distribution and the observations’ predictive posterior distribution at a fraction of the inference time of PEST-IES.

conditional invertible neural network↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variational deep learning of equilibrium transition path ensembles

Here, we present a time-dependent variational method to learn the mechanisms of equilibrium reactive processes and efficiently evaluate their rates within a transition path ensemble. This approach builds off of the variational path sampling methodology by approximating the time-dependent commitment probability within a neural network ansatz. The reaction mechanisms inferred through this approach are elucidated by a novel decomposition of the rate in terms of the components of a stochastic path action conditioned on a transition. This decomposition affords an ability to resolve the typical contribution of each reactive mode and their couplings to the rare event. The associated rate evaluation is variational and systematically improvable through the development of a cumulant expansion. We demonstrate this method in both over- and under-damped stochastic equations of motion, in low-dimensional model systems, and in the isomerization of a solvated alanine dipeptide. In all examples, we find that we can obtain quantitatively accurate estimates of the rates of the reactive events with minimal trajectory statistics and gain unique insights into transitions through the analysis of their commitment probability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fast uncertainty estimates in deep learning interatomic potentials

Deep learning has emerged as a promising paradigm to give access to highly accurate predictions of molecular and material properties. A common short-coming shared by current approaches, however, is that neural networks only give point estimates of their predictions and do not come with predictive uncertainties associated with these estimates. Existing uncertainty quantification efforts have primarily leveraged the standard deviation of predictions across an ensemble of independently trained neural networks. This incurs a large computational overhead in both training and prediction, resulting in order-of-magnitude more expensive predictions. Here, we propose a method to estimate the predictive uncertainty based on a single neural network without the need for an ensemble. This allows us to obtain uncertainty estimates with virtually no additional computational overhead over standard training and inference. We demonstrate that the quality of the uncertainty estimates matches those obtained from deep ensembles. We further examine the uncertainty estimates of our methods and deep ensembles across the configuration space of our test system and compare the uncertainties to the potential energy surface. Finally, we study the efficacy of the method in an active learning setting and find the results to match an ensemble-based strategy at order-of-magnitude reduced computational cost.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Enhancing weak lensing redshift distribution characterization by optimizing the Dark Energy Survey Self-Organizing Map Photo-z method

Characterization of the redshift distribution of ensembles of galaxies is pivotal for large scale structure cosmological studies. In this work, we focus on improving the Self-Organizing Map (SOM) methodology for photometric redshift estimation (SOMPZ), specifically in anticipation of the Dark Energy Survey Year 6 (DES Y6) data. This data set, featuring deeper and fainter galaxies than DES Year 3 (DES Y3), demands adapted techniques to ensure accurate recovery of the underlying redshift distribution. We investigate three strategies for enhancing the existing SOM-based approach used in DES Y3: 1) Replacing the Y3 SOM algorithm with one tailored for redshift estimation challenges; 2) Incorporating $\textit{g}$-band flux information to refine redshift estimates (i.e. using $\textit{griz}$ fluxes as opposed to only $\textit{riz}$); 3) Augmenting redshift data for galaxies where available. These methods are applied to DES Y3 data, and results are compared to the Y3 fiducial ones. Our analysis indicates significant improvements with the first two strategies, notably reducing the overlap between redshift bins. By combining strategies 1 and 2, we have successfully managed to reduce redshift bin overlap in DES Y3 by up to 66$\%$. Conversely, the third strategy, involving the addition of redshift data for selected galaxies as an additional feature in the method, yields inferior results and is abandoned. Our findings contribute to the advancement of weak lensing redshift characterization and lay the groundwork for better redshift characterization in DES Year 6 and future stage IV surveys, like the Rubin Observatory.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS1991

Backscattering by nonspherical particles - A review of methods and suggested new approaches

Scattering of electromagnetic radiation near the backward direction is more sensitive to particle shape than scattering near the forward direction. Mie theory is therefore of dubious applicability to predicting backscattering by atmospheric particles known to be irregular or to inverting measurements on such particles. An irregular particle is one with an uncertain shape. In the face of uncertainty one must adopt a statistical approach in which scattering properties of ensembles are determined. To obtain ensemble averages, a basis is needed for averaging over a set of electromagnetic microstates. Ensemble averages based on the Rayleigh theory for small ellipsoids and on the T matrix method for spheroids agree better with measurements than Mie theory does. The coupled-dipole method also provides a basis for ensemble averaging. This method also leads to a simple physical interpretation of why backscattering is so sensitive to particle shape and can be used to calculate scattering by one- and two-dimensional analogs to three-dimensional irregular particles.

Bohren, Craig F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Implementation of stacked ensemble machine learning for the detection of surrogate plutonium contamination in soil via LIBS

Supervised machine learning methods have demonstrated increased utility for the quantification of lanthanide and actinide elements in atomic spectroscopy applications. This study implements laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) for the identification of plutonium surrogate material (CeO 2 ) in soil matrices by training supervised machine learning methods on the recorded spectral data. A bagged ensemble using Random Forest yields the highest sensitivity predictions with a detection limit of 0.015 wt.% CeO 2 . However, high precision in Ce content prediction required the use of a stacked ensemble regression, which provided the superlative Ce quantification model with an error of 0.107% and a detection limit of 0.022 wt.%. Furthermore, the high performance of the stacked ensemble demonstrates its potential to enhance the accuracy and sensitivity of nuclear contaminant detection using field-deployable spectroscopic analyzers in real-world scenarios.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO 2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties

Abstract The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink‐source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990–2015 from 148 terrestrial high‐latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high‐latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE‐focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE −46 and −29 g C m −2 yr −1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and −2 g C m −2 yr −1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high‐latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990–2015, although uncertainty remains high.

Virkkala, Anna‐Maria↗
DOE OSTI2021

A minimally invasive, efficient method for propagation of full-field uncertainty in solid dynamics

In this work, we present a minimally invasive method for forward propagation of material property uncertainty to full-field quantities of interest in solid dynamics. Full-field uncertainty quantification enables the design of complex systems where quantities of interest, such as failure points, are not known a priori. The method, motivated by the well-known probability density function (PDF) propagation method of turbulence modeling, uses an ensemble of solutions to provide the joint PDF of desired quantities at every point in the domain. A small subset of the ensemble is computed exactly, and the remainder of the samples are computed with approximation of the evolution equations based on those exact solutions. Although the proposed method has commonalities with traditional interpolatory stochastic collocation methods applied directly to quantities of interest, it is distinct and exploits the parameter dependence and smoothness of the driving term of the evolution equations. The implementation is model independent, storage and communication efficient, and straightforward. We demonstrate its efficiency, accuracy, scaling with dimension of the parameter space, and convergence in distribution with two problems: a quasi-one-dimensional bar impact, and a two material notched plate impact. For the bar impact problem, we provide an analytical solution to PDF of the solution fields for method validation. With the notched plate problem, we also demonstrate good parallel efficiency and scaling of the method.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2021

The WRF-Solar Ensemble Prediction System to Provide Solar Irradiance Probabilistic Forecasts

In this study, we introduce the recently developed WRF-solar ensemble prediction system and a calibration method. The performances of forecast models are evaluated using the National Solar Radiation Database observational analysis for day-ahead solar irradiance predictions. The results demonstrate that the ensemble forecast improves the quality of the forecasts by considering the uncertainty of each ensemble member. The analog ensemble calibration contributed to the reduction of positive bias and an overall improvement in the probabilistic attributes, such as reliability and statistical consistency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reducing the complexity of finite-temperature auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo

The auxiliary-field quantum Monte Carlo (AFMC) method is a powerful and widely used technique for ground-state and finite-temperature simulations of quantum many-body systems. Here we introduce several algorithmic improvements for finite-temperature AFMC calculations of dilute fermionic systems that reduce the computational complexity of most parts of the algorithm. This is principally achieved by reducing the number of single-particle states that contribute at each configuration of the auxiliary fields to a number that is of the order of the number of fermions. Our methods are applicable for both the canonical and grand-canonical ensembles. We demonstrate the reduced computational complexity of the methods for the homogeneous unitary Fermi gas.

67.85.Lm↗
DOE OSTI2021

The role of SAXS and molecular simulations in 3D structure elucidation of a DNA aptamer against lung cancer

Aptamers are short, single-stranded DNA or RNA oligonucleotide molecules that function as synthetic analogs of antibodies and bind to a target molecule with high specificity. Aptamer affinity entirely depends on its tertiary structure and charge distribution. Therefore, length and structure optimization are essential for increasing aptamer specificity and affinity. Here, we present a general optimization procedure for finding the most populated atomistic structures of DNA aptamers. Based on the existed aptamer LC-18 for lung adenocarcinoma, a new truncated LC-18 (LC-18t) aptamer LC-18t was developed. A three-dimensional (3D) shape of LC-18t was reported based on small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) experiments and molecular modeling by fragment molecular orbital or molecular dynamic methods. Molecular simulations revealed an ensemble of possible aptamer conformations in solution that were in close agreement with measured SAXS data. The aptamer LC-18t had stronger binding to cancerous cells in lung tumor tissues and shared the binding site with the original larger aptamer. The suggested approach reveals 3D shapes of aptamers and helps in designing better affinity probes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Pushing the frontiers in climate modelling and analysis with machine learning

Climate modelling and analysis are facing new demands to enhance projections and climate information. Here, in this study, we argue that now is the time to push the frontiers of machine learning beyond state-of-the-art approaches, not only by developing machine-learning-based Earth system models with greater fidelity, but also by providing new capabilities through emulators for extreme event projections with large ensembles, enhanced detection and attribution methods for extreme events, and advanced climate model analysis and benchmarking. Utilizing this potential requires key machine learning challenges to be addressed, in particular generalization, uncertainty quantification, explainable artificial intelligence and causality. This interdisciplinary effort requires bringing together machine learning and climate scientists, while also leveraging the private sector, to accelerate progress towards actionable climate science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Creating ground truth for nanocrystal morphology: a fully automated pipeline for unbiased transmission electron microscopy analysis

Control over colloidal nanocrystal morphology (size, size distribution, and shape) is important for tailoring the functionality of individual nanocrystals and their ensemble behavior. Despite this, traditional methods to quantify nanocrystal morphology are laborious. New developments in automated morphology classification will accelerate these analyses but the assessment of machine learning models is limited by human accuracy for ground truth, causing even unsupervised machine learning models to have inherent bias. Herein, we introduce synthetic image rendering to solve the ground truth problem of nanocrystal morphology classification. By simulating 2D images of nanocrystal shapes via a function of high-dimensional parameter space, we trained a convolutional neural network to link unique morphologies to their simulated parameters, defining nanocrystal morphology quantitatively rather than qualitatively. An automated pipeline then processes, quantitatively defines, and classifies nanocrystal morphology from experimental transmission electron microscopy (TEM) images. Using improved computer vision techniques, 42,650 nanocrystals were identified, assessed, and labeled with quantitative parameters, offering a 600-fold improvement in efficiency over best-practice manual measurements. Further, a classification algorithm was trained with a prediction accuracy of 99.5%, which can successfully analyze a range of concave, convex, and irregular nanocrystal shapes. The resulting pipeline was applied to differentiating two syntheses of nominally cuboidal CsPbBr 3 nanocrystals and uniquely classifying binary nickel sulfide nanocrystal phase based on morphology. This pipeline provides a simple, efficient, and unbiased method to quantify nanocrystal morphology and represents a practical route to construct large datasets with an absolute ground truth for training unbiased morphology-based machine learning algorithms.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Localization of infrasonic sources via Bayesian back projection

SUMMARY A Bayesian framework is investigated for event-specific localization of infrasonic sources using back projection ray tracing. Direction-of-arrival information from array-based detection analysis is used to initialize a back projection ray path originating from the detecting array location and quantifying propagation characteristics from hypothetical source locations. The Fisher statistic, computed from the array’s beam coherence, is mapped into uncertainty in the launch angles of the ray path. Auxiliary parameters previously introduced for solving the Transport equation to compute geometric spreading along ray paths are used to map uncertainty in the ray launch angles into spatial and temporal uncertainties in the ray path. An atmospheric ensemble approach is applied to account for atmospheric uncertainty, and the relation between uncertainties in the atmospheric state and confidence in estimated localization are evaluated using several ensembles with specified variances. The method is evaluated using a synthetic event in the western United States constructed via forward propagation simulations as well as a single-station, multi-arrival detection from a surface explosion in the western United States. Localization results using this event-specific approach are more accurate and exhibit improved precision than existing Bayesian localization methods that leverage generalized, pre-computed propagation statistics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Designs from Local Random Quantum Circuits with SU ( d ) Symmetry

The generation of k -designs (pseudorandom distributions that emulate the Haar measure up to k moments) with local quantum circuit ensembles is a problem of fundamental importance in quantum information and physics. Despite the extensive understanding of this problem for ordinary random circuits, the crucial situations in which symmetries or conservation laws are in play are known to pose fundamental challenges and remain little understood. Here, we construct explicit local unitary ensembles that can achieve high-order unitary k -designs under transversal continuous symmetry, in the particularly important SU ( d ) case. Specifically, we define the convolutional quantum alternating (CQA) group generated by 4-local SU ( d ) -symmetric Hamiltonians as well as associated 4-local SU ( d ) -symmetric random unitary circuit ensembles and prove that they form and converge to SU ( d ) -symmetric k -designs, respectively, for all k < n ( n − 3 ) / 2 , with n being the number of qudits. A key technique that we employ to obtain the results is the Okounkov-Vershik approach to S n representation theory. To study the convergence time of the CQA ensemble, we develop a numerical method using the Young orthogonal form and the S n branching rule. We provide strong evidence for a subconstant spectral gap and certain convergence time scales of various important circuit architectures, which contrast with the symmetry-free case. We also provide comprehensive explanations of the difficulties and limitations in rigorously analyzing the convergence time using methods that have been effective for cases without symmetries, including Knabe’s local gap threshold and Nachtergaele’s martingale methods. This suggests that a novel approach is likely necessary for understanding the convergence time of SU ( d ) -symmetric local random circuits. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Li, Zimu (ORCID:0000000314736492)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Decomposing Cloud Radiative Feedbacks by Cloud-Top Phase

Changes in cloud scattering properties and emissivity that arise from atmospheric warming cause substantial radiative feedbacks in model projections of anthropogenic climate change, and the relative importance of the underlying mechanisms is poorly understood. One leading hypothesis is that ice-to-liquid conversions cause clouds to optically thicken, producing a major negative feedback. We test this hypothesis by developing a method to decompose cloud radiative feedbacks by cloud-top phase. The method is applied to an ensemble of six state-of-the-art global climate models run with prescribed sea surface temperature. In these simulations, the global mean of the net cloud scattering and emissivity feedback from cloud-phase conversions ranges from −0.17 to −0.01 W m −2 K −1 , while the overall net cloud feedback ranges from 0.02 to 0.91 W m −2 K −1 . The multimodel mean of the cloud scattering and emissivity feedback from cloud-phase conversions is approximately 19% of the magnitude of the multimodel mean of the overall cloud feedback (−0.10 vs 0.52 W m −2 K −1 ). These results indicate that cloud-phase conversions cause a robust negative feedback by changing cloud scattering and emissivity, but this mechanism makes a modest contribution to the overall cloud feedback at the global scale.

Climate change↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive uncertainty quantification (UQ) for full engineering models by solving probability density function (PDF) equation

This report details a new method for propagating parameter uncertainty (forward uncertainty quantification) in partial differential equations (PDE) based computational mechanics applications. The method provides full-field quantities of interest by solving for the joint probability density function (PDF) equations which are implied by the PDEs with uncertain parameters. Full-field uncertainty quantification enables the design of complex systems where quantities of interest, such as failure points, are not known apriori. The method, motivated by the well-known probability density function (PDF) propagation method of turbulence modeling, uses an ensemble of solutions to provide the joint PDF of desired quantities at every point in the domain. A small subset of the ensemble is computed exactly, and the remainder of the samples are computed with approximation of the driving (dynamics) term of the PDEs based on those exact solutions. Although the proposed method has commonalities with traditional interpolatory stochastic collocation methods applied directly to quantities of interest, it is distinct and exploits the parameter dependence and smoothness of the dynamics term of the governing PDEs. The efficacy of the method is demonstrated by applying it to two target problems: solid mechanics explicit dynamics with uncertain material model parameters, and reacting hypersonic fluid mechanics with uncertain chemical kinetic rate parameters. A minimally invasive implementation of the method for representative codes SPARC (reacting hypersonics) and NimbleSM (finite- element solid mechanics) and associated software details are described. For solid mechanics demonstration problems the method shows order of magnitudes improvement in accuracy over traditional stochastic collocation. For the reacting hypersonics problem, the method is implemented as a streamline integration and results show very good accuracy for the approximate sample solutions of re-entry flow past the Apollo capsule geometry at Mach 30.

42 ENGINEERING↗