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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Squeeze Film Damper Experimental and Numerical Correlation: Test Setup Description and Parameter Identification of Dry System

The process of characterizing a damper involves both experimental techniques and model simulation. Experiments characterize dynamic behavior of a system through empirical modal analysis using impact and shaker testing. The layout of the test setup is crucial for a low-mass, nonlinear system. Physical arrangement, orientation of the system, and instrumentation affect the results that are discussed in this paper. These results can be used to validate a numerical simulation of the same system. With a validated model, important physical input parameters and modeling techniques can be determined and implemented in future designs. In other words, this modeling can be used with confidence to design alternative dampers that may be difficult, costly, and time-consuming to characterize experimentally.

Cook, Jason↗
DOE OSTI2020

A machine learning model for predicting the minimum miscibility pressure of CO 2 and crude oil system based on a support vector machine algorithm approach

CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR) is a potential way for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS). Though, the effect of CO 2 injection is greatly influenced by the reservoir conditions. Typically, Minimum miscible pressure (MMP) is selected as one of the key parameters for the screening and evaluation of prospective CO 2 flooding. Conventional slim tube test is both accurate and widely accepted but it is inefficient. Existing empirical formulas for MMPs are easy to be used but have been proved inaccurate and unreliable. Machine learning-based methods have great advantages in predicting MMP. However, only predication accuracy is discussed for most models without the screening of the main control factors and further validation of the model reliability. In this paper, a new prediction model based on support vector machine (SVM) was developed for pure/impure CO 2 and crude oil system. This study was based on 147 sets of MMP data from the literature with full information on reservoir temperature, oil composition and gas composition. The main control factors were screened by several statistical methods. Unlike the conventional prediction models that verified by only prediction accuracy, learning curve and single factor control variable analysis are further validated to obtain the optimum model.

02 PETROLEUM↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved Spectral Classification of Local K/M Dwarfs in SDSS Surveys. I. Chemodynamic Validation and Metallicity Calibration

An examination of 109,276 spectra of low-mass stars in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) data archive, collected pre-2010, provides a broad collection of K/M (sub)dwarfs tracing the local (d ≲ 250 pc) population of the thin-disk, thick-disk, and halo, based on 3D kinematics. These populations have distinct metallicities and kinematics, which should be reflected in lower-mass members. One complication is measuring metallicities of M dwarfs from low-resolution spectroscopy or photometry alone remains a challenge, even with the availability of Gaia data. To better characterize physical parameters of low-mass stars observed by SDSS, we define a set of 536 improved, empirical K/M dwarf classification templates to more accurately determine spectral subtypes (K5.5–M8.5) and morphology classes (MCs) (0.5–12.5). We select the best-fit template to every archival SDSS spectrum in the range 5000–8000 Å based on minimum χ 2 value. We then use secondary metallicity estimators to calibrate the most likely [Fe/H] values corresponding to the assigned MC. We confirm that the most metal-rich K/M dwarfs have thin-disk kinematics, and we observe the known effect of Galactic radial metallicity migration, which we confirm is strongly imprinted in the chemodynamics of the local disk M dwarfs. Confirmation of these chemodynamic trends validates the precision of our improved templates for estimating [Fe/H] for M (sub)dwarfs, notably at the low-metallicity end (–3 < [Fe/H] < –1). Substructure in the chemodynamics of the most metal-poor K/M subdwarfs begins to distinguish between local Gaia-Enceladus and local in situ halo objects. This methodology opens the door to use the ubiquitous, local K/M (sub)dwarfs to trace local Galactic chemodynamics with the highest possible resolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Active learning using hybrid surrogate tool life modeling for machining process optimization

Here, this paper describes an active learning approach for part-to-part iterative machining process optimization using a hybrid surrogate tool life model. A probabilistic interpolating tool life model is developed by combining the empirical Taylor-type tool life equation and the model fit error. The probabilistic tool life model is then used to calculate the machining cost per part distribution. The optimal machining parameters are selected using an expected improvement in machining cost per part criterion. The method is validated numerically using experimental results; the results show a median convergence error of 2.2% after three tests over 400 simulations. The method is validated experimentally on two industrial applications for Ti-6Al-4V roughing resulting in a cost per part reduction greater than 23% after two tests. The described method is a robust solution for rapid convergence to optimal machining parameters in an industrial production environment.

Active learning↗
DOE OSTI2025

Determining the Minimum Phase‐to‐Phase Gap Distance for Unconventional Transmission Lines Using Numerical Method

With the increasing demand for power transmission, compact, high surge impedance loading (HSIL) high-voltage transmission lines have emerged as a viable solution due to their reduced land acquisition costs and higher power delivery capability. The compactness of a transmission line depends on effective insulation coordination, particularly in determining the phase-to-phase clearance, which is governed by the critical flashover voltage under switching and lightning overvoltage conditions. Traditional methods for phase-to-phase clearance rely on empirical formulas derived from experimental data, which are convenient for conventional high-voltage lines. However, unconventional HSIL lines require a faster and more adaptable evaluation method, as they involve optimized conductor positioning to reduce right-of-way requirements while enhancing natural power loadability. This study presents a simplified numerical approach to determine the minimum phase-to-phase gap, utilizing arc propagation viability curves, and offers an efficient alternative to conventional empirical methods. The proposed method was successfully applied to a 500 kV conventional line as well as 500 and 735 kV unconventional line designs, demonstrating its capability in accurately assessing insulation requirements. Results reveal that the method can support reduced gap clearances while still maintaining reliability, thereby validating its usefulness in optimizing compact transmission line configurations.

Arafat, Easir [The University of Texas at Dallas, ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement of free chlorine levels in water using potentiometric responses of biofilms and applications for monitoring and managing the quality of potable water

We report residual free chlorine is not monitored continuously at scale in drinking water distribution systems because existing real-time sensor technologies require frequent maintenance, cleaning, and calibration, which makes these products too costly to be used throughout a distribution system. As a result, current measurement approaches require manual sampling, which is not feasible for the consistent monitoring of free chlorine because chlorine concentrations vary significantly throughout pipeline distribution and over time and space. This research presents an alternative and cost-effective method of predicting free chlorine levels in drinking water using graphite electrodes coated with naturally grown microbial biofilms. This Microbial Potentiometric Sensor (MPS) array was installed in a Continuously Mixed Batch Reactor (CMBR), and drinking water containing variable free chlorine concentrations. The chlorine concentrations were introduced in a controlled manner, and the MPS signals were monitored over time. MPS signals were measured from the change in Open Circuit Potential (OCP) across the MPS array in real-time. An empirically derived relationship between the normalized change in OCP and free chlorine was established by fitting individual and average MPS data to a decaying exponential growth function in order to predict free chlorine levels. The results show that free chlorine can be predicted with reasonable accuracy, with model validation showing an average absolute error of ±0.09 ppm below 1.1 ppm and ±0.30 ppm between 1.1 and 2.7 ppm. However, the accuracy of predictions was reduced at higher free chlorine levels. The researchers conclude that MPS systems may benefit drinking water distribution systems by measuring free chlorine. These advantages of the MPS are especially pronounced in the developing world because this system is inexpensive and does not require routine maintenance or cleaning. The system relies on a naturally forming and regenerating biofilm and an inexpensive potentiometric meter to produce stable measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Soil enzymes as indicators of soil function: A step toward greater realism in microbial ecological modeling

Soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles and their complex responses to environmental changes have received increasing attention. However, large uncertainties in model predictions remain, partially due to the lack of explicit representation and parameterization of microbial processes. One great challenge is to effectively integrate rich microbial functional traits into ecosystem modeling for better predictions. Here, using soil enzymes as indicators of soil function, we developed a competitive dynamic enzyme allocation scheme and detailed enzyme-mediated soil inorganic N processes in the Microbial-ENzyme Decomposition (MEND) model. We conducted a rigorous calibration and validation of MEND with diverse soil C-N fluxes, microbial C:N ratios, and functional gene abundances from a 12-year CO 2 × N grassland experiment (BioCON) in Minnesota, USA. In addition to accurately simulating soil CO 2 fluxes and multiple N variables, the model correctly predicted microbial C:N ratios and their negative response to enriched N supply. Model validation further showed that, compared to the changes in simulated enzyme concentrations and decomposition rates, the changes in simulated activities of eight C-N-associated enzymes were better explained by the measured gene abundances in responses to elevated atmospheric CO 2 concentration. In conclusion, our results demonstrated that using enzymes as indicators of soil function and validating model predictions with functional gene abundances in ecosystem modeling can provide a basis for testing hypotheses about microbially mediated biogeochemical processes in response to environmental changes. Further development and applications of the modeling framework presented here will enable microbial ecologists to address ecosystem-level questions beyond empirical observations, toward more predictive understanding, an ultimate goal of microbial ecology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learned Empirical Numerical Integrator from Simulated Data

Recently, a number of state-of-the-art surrogate machine learning (ML) models have been designed for global weather and climate prediction, which have been trained using reanalysis data products. Reanalysis data products are constructed using numerical model simulations that combine numerical integration of partial differential equations and parameterization schemes. These products are typically only archived and made available using coarsened spatial and temporal resolutions. This study explores the impact of the numerical generation methods used to produce the training datasets and the temporal resolution of those datasets on machine learning surrogate models. Using the nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) machine as an explainable ML technique, simple dynamical systems are emulated with ML models trained on data produced by three classical numerical integration schemes. NVAR is validated as a skillful ML method, capable of producing accurate predictions and, more importantly, reconstructing both the underlying dynamics and the numerical integration scheme used to generate the training data. However, the machine fails to generalize predictions on unseen test data generated by different numerical integration schemes, despite the underlying dynamical system being the same. This result provides a word of caution for the growing field of machine learning emulation of weather and climate dynamics. Furthermore, we illustrate using NVAR that training on temporally coarsened data may increase the required complexity of ML models and potentially introduce new numerical challenges. Finally, we discover that empirical integration schemes with arbitrary time-stepping sizes can be constructed directly from the data, which implies a potential for the development of empirical numerical integration schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Design and Development of Stable Nanocrystalline High‐Entropy Alloy: Coupling Self‐Stabilization and Solute Grain Boundary Segregation Effects

Abstract Grain growth is prevalent in nanocrystalline (NC) materials at low homologous temperatures. Solute element addition is used to offset excess energy that drives coarsening at grain boundaries (GBs), albeit mostly for simple binary alloys. This thermodynamic approach is considered complicated in multi‐component alloy systems due to complex pairwise interactions among alloying elements. Guided by empirical and GB‐segregation enthalpy considerations for binary‐alloy systems, a novel alloy design strategy, the “ pseudo‐binary thermodynamic ” approach, for stabilizing NC‐high entropy alloys (HEAs) and other multi‐component‐alloy variants is proposed. Using Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 as a model‐HEA to validate this approach, Zr, Sc, and Hf, are identified as the preferred solutes that would segregate to HEA‐GBs to stabilize it against growth. Using Zr, NC‐Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 HEAs with minor additions of Zr are synthesized, followed by annealing up to 1123 K. Using advanced characterization techniques— in situ X‐ray diffraction (XRD), scanning/transmission electron microscopy (S/TEM), and atom probe tomography, nanograin stability due to coupling self‐stabilization and solute‐GB segregation effects is reported in HEAs up to substantially high temperatures. The self‐stabilization effect originates from the preferential GB‐segregation of constituent HEA‐elements that stabilizes NC‐Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 up to 0.5 T m ( T m –melting temperature). Meanwhile, solute‐GB segregation originates from Zr segregation to NC‐Al 25 Co 25 Cr 25 Fe 25 GBs; this results in further stabilization of the phase and grain‐size (≈14 nm) up to ≈0.58 and ≈0.64 T m , respectively.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development of a Gibbs Energy Minimiser for the MOOSE-based Corrosion Modelling App Yellowjacket and Validation of MSTDB

Nuclear materials are highly complex multiscale, multiphysics systems,and an effective prediction of nuclear reactor performance and safety requires simulation capabilities that tightly couple different physical phenomena. The Idaho National Laboratory’s Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) provides the computational foundation for performing such simulations. With the move towards advanced reactors, such as the Molten Salt Reactor (MSR), that employ high temperature fluids compared to conventional reactors, corrosion has become a problem of great interest. A new application called Yellowjacket is currently under development to directly couple thermodynamic equilibrium and kinetics with phase field models in order to model corrosion in MSRs. As part of Yellowjacket, a Gibbs energy minimiser is being developed to perform thermochemical equilibrium calculations for a range of different materials, which is currently in its infancy. This report describes the further progress towards the development of Yellowjacket Gibbs energy minimiser. Ontario Tech University is developing a new Gibbs energy minimiser for Yellowjacket which is the primary contribution of this work. The aim to develop a thermochemistry solver for the MOOSE framework following the same development philosophy and using the same tools and libraries. A special focus is on performance, documentation and SQA. Furthermore through a scope extension partway through the fiscal year a thorough assessment of the MSTDB-TC v1.3 was performed at Ontario Tech University in the context of continuous improvement and quality assurance. The objective of the work was to have an arm’s length review of the database to give confidence that the database is performing as it was intended while assessing its current state to give recommendations to future developments. This assessment involved two parts: A) a quantitative assessment, and B) a qualitative assessment. Part A involved developing an automated test-suite that would compute values from the database using Thermochimica with comparisons to experimental measurements for validation purposes, which gives confidence to the database’s stakeholders that its functioning properly. Part B involved reviewing all binary systems in the database and making a qualitative assessment with two performance indicators: comprehensiveness and overall confidence. It is important to note that the models in the database are empirical, which is to say that the quality of any model is highly dependent on the experimental data used to inform its development.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2020

An Applied Strategy for Using Empirical and Hybrid Models in Online Monitoring

The monitoring of plant equipment for failure prediction is one of the key contributors to operation and maintenance (O&M) costs for a nuclear power plant (NPP) because O&M monitoring depends on labor-intensive activities that are required to meet high equipment reliability standards. These activities rely primarily on humans for information gathering, condition diagnosis, and predictive analysis. Online monitoring aims to automate these activities by relying on sensors to replace human information gathering and machine learning to replace human analysis and decision making. To facilitate automated monitoring, a systematic strategy for anomaly detection is needed to optimally use the available sensor data, empirical models, and physics-supported models. This strategy is essential to provide credible reasoning on why and when an empirical (i.e., purely data-driven) versus hybrid (i.e., physics-supported) approach should be used and to determine the ideal mix of these two approaches for a defined anomaly detection scope. The extant methods usually adopt an ad hoc trial-and-error approach that, in addition to being time-consuming and costly, is also highly subjective; it is impacted by the background and the skill set of the personnel making the decisions. Thus, such an approach cannot guarantee an optimum outcome. This represents the motivation of the current research effort, which is focused on devising a scientifically supported strategy for the optimum selection of anomaly detection methods. This report presents a detailed assessment of the main anomaly detection techniques within the empirical or hybrid method streams. Empirical methods include pattern, statistical, and causal inference. Hybrid methods include the use of physics models to train and test data methods, reduce data dimensionality, reduce data-model complexity, augment data, and reduce empirical uncertainty; hybrid methods also include the use of data to tune physics models. The listed techniques within these two streams represent the vast majority of techniques performed for anomaly detection. Using the techniques as outcomes, a strategy was developed to enable a systematic decision-making process to lead to one of these techniques. The strategy is driven by key decision points related to data relevance, simple modeling feasibility, data inference, physics-modeling value, data dimensionality, physics knowledge, method of validation, performance, data availability and suitability for training and testing, cause-effect, entropy inference, and model fitting. Each of these decision points in the strategy is explained in detail in this report with examples, along with the scientific basis behind the decisions and outcomes in common and simplified terminology. The strategy is developed for use by any NPP staff with basic engineering or science knowledge. A user-friendly graphical state flow diagram was also developed as a visual presentation of the strategy. The strategy was tested and demonstrated through two pilot projects for the application of anomaly detection at an NPP. Each pilot had two use cases: an initial case in which certain decisions were made that resulted in one or more empirical techniques and a revised use case where one or more key decisions were modified resulting in using a set of hybrid methods.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2025

MPEX AI Digital Twins

All magnetically confined plasma fusion power plant concepts (Tokamak, Spherical Tokamak, Stellarator, Mirror, ...) must exhaust the heat and plasma from the core confinement region to the material walls. The primary channel for this exhaust is through a plasma divertor which directs plasma along open magnetic field lines to a material target. The Material Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) illustrated in Figure 1, is a high-power, steady-state linear plasma device designed to produce the plasma material interaction (PMI) conditions of the divertor of future magnetic confinement fusion power plants: energy flux 20MW/m 2 , ion fluence 1031/m 2 , pulse duration 106 sec. These goals of plasma exposure in MPEX are well beyond those achieved in magnetic fusion experimental devices. Successfully achieving these high power steady state conditions for long pulses requires operational control of the heating and particle sources and the plasma flux to the walls and target. The MPEX AI Hot Spot Controller, proposed in this project, will help achieve the operational milestones of MPEX. The MPEX device will begin commissioning at the end of FY26. A smaller proto-MPEX was operated for 14,666 plasma discharges and will resume operation in September of 2025 as proto-MPEX-lite, with reduced capability, to test a new window for the Helicon plasma source. The proto-MPEX data has undergone surrogate modeling with machine learning methods (R. Archibald, 2022 IEEE International Conference on Big Data). This proto-MPEX data will be used to begin development of the AI digital twins described in this white paper. The scientific mission of MPEX is to qualify materials of different composition for use in the high energy and plasma flux conditions of a fusion power plant. The materials exposed in MPEX will in some cases be exposed to high neutron fluxes at other ORNL facilities to measure the changes to their PMI properties. The targets exposed in MPEX will be transported under vacuum to a Surface Analysis Station (SAS). The SAS will be equipped with the following diagnostics: Focused Ion Beam (FIB) for trench milling, 100-400 angstrom resolution scanning electron microscope (SEM), surface mapping x-ray spectrometer, high resolution camera, and a future upgrade to a laser induced breakdown spectroscopy quadruple mass spectrometer (LIBS-QMS). The MPEX experiments will generate diverse pre- and post-exposure measurement data of detailed material properties down to the crystal grain level in 3D for post-exposure assessment of PMI damage (e.g. cracking, melting, erosion and redeposition of the material). Physics models for the PMI, and how the material composition and manufacturing impact its performance under high energy plasma exposure, need to be validated with MPEX data to guide the selection of new candidate materials. Our vision for the MPEX AI Digital Twins project is to supply experimental and physics model simulation data to train Artificial Intelligence (AI) models for data processing, analysis, operational control, PMI and materials simulation to maximize the scientific output of the MPEX device. Ultimately, an AI digital twin of MPEX material assessment metrics for tested and synthetic material types with simulated PMI will be trained by the AI Modeling Teams on the experimental and physics simulation data submitted to the American Science Cloud by this project. A purely empirical search for the best material is inefficient given the finite number of samples that can be tested on MPEX. In order to expand the material properties database for training the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin, and to gain physics understanding of the PMI processes, physics models of the material properties and PMI processes are required. The physics simulations provide detailed simulation data, like impact angles for plasma ions, sputtering yields, transport of the ionized sputtered target material in the plasma, and redeposition locations. This simulation data expands the measurement data for deeper physics understanding. The experimental data is essential to validate the PMI and material structure simulation models. The validated models can then be used to generate new simulation data of MPEX material assessments for synthetic material compositions that have not been exposed in MPEX. These predictive simulations, plus the whole experimental dataset, will be used to train the MPEX Material Assessment AI Digital Twin allowing a rapid generative AI search for new materials with reduced PMI damage by interpolating the domain of the training set. These new optimum materials can be simulated with the physics codes and/or tested in MPEX. The ability of AI neural networks to interpolate multi-dimensional parameter spaces and generate virtual data is exploited for a more efficient search for optimum materials. The advent of the Transformational AI Models Consortium (TAIMC) is an opportunity to engage with state of the art private and public AI developers to achieve the goals of the AI digital twins and AI accelerated physics models proposed in this project. Our partners at ORNL from the Advance Scientific Computing Research (ASCR) organization will collaborate in accelerating the integrated plasma material interaction simulation framework. This simulation framework will provide a platform for generating simulation data across a range of physical fidelities, including hybrid methods that produce multi-fidelity results. This data will be leveraged for AI model development, both for generation of surrogates and the automation of simulation campaigns. A part of the research below will include collaborative efforts with the TAIMC to (i) adapt data storage approaches to ensure AI-readiness, (ii) provide a protypical exemplar to inform and exercise constructed workflows, and (iii) generate and share data, using the TAIMC unified AI data standard, for foundational models that will be trained from multiple sources across the DOE complex. We will also collaborate with the TAIMC, as well as the planned AI modeling teams, to develop approaches for reducing the cost of data generation. These include tailored multi-fidelity approaches as well as fine-tuning strategies to augment general, large-scale foundational models.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A thermodynamic model of integrated liquid-to-liquid thermoelectric heat pump systems

Thermoelectric (TE) heat pumps (TEHPs) are advantageous for heating and cooling in various applications because of their modularity and simple design. A TEHP system includes the TE modules with p- and n-type materials bonded to substrates, plus heat exchangers, thermal interfaces to the heat exchangers, and heat transfer fluids. Although modeling an individual TE module has been extensively studied, limited studies have reported performance at the larger system-level. Furthermore, no prior study has addressed the impact of temperature-dependent TE material properties (e.g., electric resistivity, thermal conductivity, and Seebeck coefficient) on overall heat-pump-system-level performance. Here, this work presents a mathematical model for TEHP system performance based on Goldsmid's approach for TE material performance, “effective” TE material properties, Gnielinski's correlation for convective heat transfer, and thermal balance theory for a heat exchange network. This combined approach provides an accurate model of the liquid-to-liquid TEHP system. Three different approaches—one empirical, one based on the manufacturer's specifications, and one drawn from the literature—were then used to determine values for TE material properties. The first two methods treated properties as constants, while the last approach treated properties as surface-temperature-based functions. Finally, experimental TEHP data was used to validate the models, all with relative absolute deviations of approximately 10% when predicting heating capacity and 10%–25% when forecasting cooling capacity up to a 30 K surface temperature lift. The results demonstrated that, at the TEHP system level, the TE material properties could be treated as constants, avoiding solver iterations and reducing the performance uncertainty by up to 95%.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Maximum likelihood estimation of difference scaling functions for suprathreshold judgments

Maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) has been used to produce perceptual scales from binary judgments of triads and quadruples. This method relies on Thurstone’s theory of a stochastic perceptual process where the perceived difference of two stimuli is the difference in their perceived strengths. It is possible that the perception of a suprathreshold difference is overestimated when adding smaller differences, a phenomenon referred to as diminishing returns. The current approach to construct a perceptual scale using MLE does not account for this phenomenon. We present a way to model the perception of differences using MLE and Thurstone’s theory, adapted to allow the possibility of diminishing returns. This method is validated using Monte Carlo simulated responses to experimental triads and can correctly model diminishing returns, the absence of diminishing returns, and the opposite of diminishing returns both in the cases when a perceptual scale is known and when the true perceived strengths of the stimuli are unknown. Additionally, this method was applied to empirical data sets to determine its feasibility in investigations of perception. Ultimately, it was found that this analysis allows for more accurate modeling of suprathreshold difference judgments, a more complete understanding of the perceptual processes underlying comparisons, and the evaluation of Thurstone’s theory of difference judgments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

A review of NEST models for liquid xenon and an exhaustive comparison with other approaches

This paper discusses the microphysical simulation of interactions in liquid xenon, the active detector medium in many leading rare-event searches for new physics, and describes experimental observables useful for understanding detector performance. The scintillation and ionization yield distributions for signal and background are presented using the Noble Element Simulation Technique (NEST), a toolkit based on experimental data and simple empirical formulas, which mimic previous microphysics modeling but are guided by data. The NEST models for light and charge production as a function of the particle type, energy, and electric field are reviewed, along with models for energy resolution and final pulse areas. NEST is compared with other models or sets of models and validated against real data, with several specific examples drawn from XENON, ZEPLIN, LUX, LZ, PandaX, and table-top experiments used for calibrations.

WIMPs↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity analysis towards trace-uranium detection with γ-γ coincidence NAA

An improved approach for detection of trace amounts of 238 U by means of neutron activation analysis (NAA) is presented. The analysis enhancement is obtained by utilizing γ-γ coincidence counting. An empirical method for evaluating the sensitivity gain in the presence of a large source-related background is presented. A comparison of detection limits is made between two counting schemes; namely, counting single gammas using one HPGe detector versus counting coincident gammas using two HPGe detectors placed face-to-face. Furthermore, a data-validated radiation transport model, created in GEANT4 for a single HPGe detector, is extended to handle the two detector setup. In this counting scheme, a 238 U-detection sensitivity enhancement of about a factor of 8 is predicted for a sample of Saint-Gobain G3 Sapphire when compared to the simpler singles counting approach.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterizing and Mitigating Intraday Variability: Reconstructing Source Structure in Accreting Black Holes with mm-VLBI

The extraordinary physical resolution afforded by the Event Horizon Telescope has opened a window onto the astrophysical phenomena unfolding on horizon scales in two known black holes, M87* and Sgr A*. However, with this leap in resolution has come a new set of practical complications. Sgr A* exhibits intraday variability that violates the assumptions underlying Earth aperture synthesis, limiting traditional image reconstruction methods to short timescales and data sets with very sparse (u, v) coverage. We present a new set of tools to detect and mitigate this variability. We develop a data-driven, model-agnostic procedure to detect and characterize the spatial structure of intraday variability. This method is calibrated against a large set of mock data sets, producing an empirical estimator of the spatial power spectrum of the brightness fluctuations. We present a novel Bayesian noise modeling algorithm that simultaneously reconstructs an average image and statistical measure of the fluctuations about it using a parameterized form for the excess variance in the complex visibilities not otherwise explained by the statistical errors. These methods are validated using a variety of simulated data, including general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations appropriate for Sgr A* and M87*. We find that the reconstructed source structure and variability are robust to changes in the underlying image model. We apply these methods to the 2017 EHT observations of M87*, finding evidence for variability across the EHT observing campaign. The variability mitigation strategies presented are widely applicable to very long baseline interferometry observations of variable sources generally, for which they provide a data-informed averaging procedure and natural characterization of inter-epoch image consistency.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Development and Validation of Algorithms That Analyze Communicating Thermostat Data to Identify Enclosure Retrofit Opportunities

Annual energy savings of up to $\$ 4$ to $\$ 5$ billion could be achieved nationwide through basic insulation and heating system retrofits of existing homes. However, current utility energy efficiency programs are costly and challenging to scale. Customer acquisition occurs primarily through energy bill mailers, mass media, and online advertising that lack specificity about home-specific retrofit opportunities, expected energy savings, and cost-effectiveness. Specific retrofit opportunities are identified via on-site home energy assessments (HEAs) that are inconvenient to homeowners, expensive, and of variable accuracy. We developed computational algorithms that automatically analyze communicating thermostat (CT) heating data that could be used to increase the customer uptake of insulation and air sealing energy conservation measures (ECMs) by identifying homes with the most significant retrofit opportunities, estimating post-retrofit energy savings, and formulating home-specific outreach. The algorithms are based on an extended second-order grey-box model that characterizes a building’s thermal response using lumped elements, coupled with an empirical model of infiltration that accounts for both wind and stack effects. The basic parameters of the model correspond to actual physical parameters of the home, i.e., the home’s overall R-value of and the building envelope ACH50. Unlike the conventional approach, which estimates model parameters based on the best fit to the observed time-dependent room temperature, our approach derives correlations between the daily heating system runtime and temperature difference (indoor-outdoor) that are more robust to data quality issues in real-world applications. We also used HEA data for algorithm development and validation. With the help of our utility partners, Eversource and National Grid, we obtained data sets for hundreds of Massachusetts homes. For each home, these data sets included three sets of information anonymized by the utility: (1) CT data (HVAC runtime, room temperature, and, for some vendors, outdoor temperature and wind speed) collected by the CT vendor (one of three) over a heating season, (2) HEA report performed by the HEA vendor (same vendor for all homes), (3) Monthly utility gas bills coincident with the CT data (3 to 24 per home, depending on availability). For some homes, we also obtained blower-door test results. Initially, we applied the algorithms developed to homes with a single CT and then extended them to homes with two CTs by using an equivalent home approach. Finally, we developed algorithms for prediction of energy savings and a methodology of comparing our predictions with those generated by HEAs. The main technical results indicate that we can reliably identify homes with insulation and/or air sealing retrofit opportunities and provide accurate savings predictions. Our hypothesis is that the algorithms could be applied to utility energy efficiency programs to identify homes that could realize significant energy savings from insulation and/or air sealing retrofits. This information could then be used to reach out to those homes with highly customized outreach, thereby delivering increased program energy savings and cost-effectiveness. This would: Significantly increase the uptake rate of on-site HEAs, and Significantly increase the fraction of HEAs resulting in ECM implementation. To test these hypotheses, we designed and conducted a randomized controlled trial (RCT). The RCT results suggest that personal messaging leads to a two- to five-fold increase in the HEA uptake rate.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗