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At least 271 records · Page 15

Adversarial sampling of unknown and high-dimensional conditional distributions

Many engineering problems require the prediction of realization-to-realization variability or a refined description of modeled quantities. In that case, it is necessary to sample elements from unknown high-dimensional spaces with possibly millions of degrees of freedom. While there exist methods able to sample elements from probability density functions (PDF) with known shapes, several approximations need to be made when the distribution is unknown. In this paper the sampling method, as well as the inference of the underlying distribution, are both handled with a data-driven method known as generative adversarial networks (GAN), which trains two competing neural networks to produce a network that can effectively generate samples from the training set distribution. In practice, it is often necessary to draw samples from conditional distributions. When the conditional variables are continuous, only one (if any) data point corresponding to a particular value of a conditioning variable may be available, which is not sufficient to estimate the conditional distribution. This work handles this problem using an a priori estimation of the conditional moments of a PDF. Herein, two approaches, stochastic estimation, and an external neural network are compared for computing these moments; however, any preferred method can be used. The algorithm is demonstrated in the case of the deconvolution of a filtered turbulent flow field. It is shown that all the versions of the proposed algorithm effectively sample the target conditional distribution with minimal impact on the quality of the samples compared to state-of-the-art methods. Additionally, the procedure can be used as a metric for the diversity of samples generated by a conditional GAN (cGAN) conditioned with continuous variables.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

The intrinsic shape of NGC 3379

Photometric and kinematic data from the literature are combined with new dynamical models to derive the intrinsic shape of the 'standard' elliptical galaxy NGC 3379. The parameters that are best constrained are the dynamical triaxiality T (essentially the triaxiality of the total mass distribution) and the short-to long axis ratio of the light distribution c(sub L). The inferred shape is given by a Bayesian probability distribution in the (T, c(sub L) plane. Assuming a uniform prior, the most probable shape is oblate with a flattening of c(sub L) = 87. The distribution is strongly non-Gaussian, however, and the expectation values, (T) = .31 (c(sub L) = .75, imply a flatter and more triaxial figure. The 68% highest posterior density region allows more triaxial shapes as long as they are fairly round, or flatter shapes as long as they are nearly oblate. These results are essentially unchanged if the galaxy is assumed to rotate about its short axis, or if it is modeled as an S0 with a negligible-mass disk rather than as an elliptical. The suggestion of Capaccioli et al. (ApJ, 371, 535 (1991)) that NGC 3379 is a rather flat, triaxial S0 galaxy is found to be improbable at the 98% level; this conclusion is largely independent of the bulge-to-disk ratio or the relative rotation speeds of the two components.

Statler, Thomas S.↗

A Voltage Inference Framework for Real-Time Observability in Active Distribution Grids

Active distribution grids are gaining traction to meet the growing environmental, socio-economic, and sustainability targets. Various advanced smart grid technologies facilitate the integration of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) by supporting the bi-directional power flow. The limited observability of distribution grids, primarily related to their location at the very edge of power system infrastructure, brings challenges to optimal grid management. Moreover, only a limited number of measurements at regular intervals are usually available. This paper presents a novel inference framework, referred to as “Voltage Inference”, to overcome the observability issues. The proposed framework employs a prediction step based on the Multivariate Taylor series approximation, followed by a corrector step that minimizes the estimation error to infer the otherwise unknown voltages from the available measurements. Furthermore, numerical results on the IEEE 13-bus test feeder validate the accuracy and computational performance of the proposed framework.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Analyzing count data with measurement error

In this article, we analyze observed count data such as the number of defects in a steel product where the observed counts are the true counts measured with errors. We account for the measurement error by using a measurement error model based on a latent lognormal (LLN) distribution. We consider making inference about a single population (e.g., from samples of a production lot) and a regression model (e.g., from runs of a designed experiment), where the measurement system properties are known, that is, the parameters of the LLN distribution are known. Then, we consider simultaneous inference for the single population and regression model as well as the measurement system. We demonstrate the proposed methodology with both simulated and real observed counts.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Debris Disk Results from the Gemini Planet Imager Exoplanet Survey's Polarimetric Imaging Campaign

We report the results of a ∼4 yr direct imaging survey of 104 stars to resolve and characterize circumstellar debris disks in scattered light as part of the Gemini Planet Imager (GPI) Exoplanet Survey. We targeted nearby (≲150 pc), young (≲500 Myr) stars with high infrared (IR) excesses (L {sub IR}/L {sub ⋆} > 10{sup −5}), including 38 with previously resolved disks. Observations were made using the GPI high-contrast integral field spectrograph in H-band (1.6 μm) coronagraphic polarimetry mode to measure both polarized and total intensities. We resolved 26 debris disks and 3 protoplanetary/transitional disks. Seven debris disks were resolved in scattered light for the first time, including newly presented HD 117214 and HD 156623, and we quantified basic morphologies of five of them using radiative transfer models. All of our detected debris disks except HD 156623 have dust-poor inner holes, and their scattered-light radii are generally larger than corresponding radii measured from resolved thermal emission and those inferred from spectral energy distributions. To assess sensitivity, we report contrasts and consider causes of nondetections. Detections were strongly correlated with high IR excess and high inclination, although polarimetry outperformed total intensity angular differential imaging for detecting low-inclination disks (≲70°). Based on postsurvey statistics, we improved upon our presurvey target prioritization metric predicting polarimetric disk detectability. We also examined scattered-light disks in the contexts of gas, far-IR, and millimeter detections. Comparing H-band and ALMA fluxes for two disks revealed tentative evidence for differing grain properties. Finally, we found no preference for debris disks to be detected in scattered light if wide-separation substellar companions were present.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Remote sensing of seasonal distribution of precipitable water vapor over the oceans and inference of boundary layer structure

Over the ocean satellite infrared spectral measurements in the 18 micrometer water vapor band and the 11 micrometer window region were used to derive precipitable water vapor, w, in the atmosphere and the sea surface temperature, SST. Seasonal maps of w on the oceans derived from these data reveal the dynamical influence of the large scale atmospheric circulation. With the help of a model for the vertical distribution of water vapor, the configuration of the atmospheric boundary layer over the oceans can be inferred from w when the information of SST is combined. The gross seasonal mean structure of the boundary layer inferred in this fashion reveals the broad areas of the trade wind inversion and the convectively active areas such as the intertropical convergence zones.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Inferences about the solar wind dynamics from observed distributions of electrons and ions

Recent measurements, mostly from Helios and Voyager, were reviewed. The observational material was compiled into a series of radial profiles for various macroscopic plasma parameters. Several examples for experimentally determined three-dimensional distribution functions of protons are shown. The physical properties of the solar wind electrons were surveyed. The still unresolved question of the driving mechanism of the solar wind is considered. The problem of the energy balance in pure, high velocity streams emanating from solar coronal holes was outlined. It is suggested that the suprathermal electrons may play an important role in driving the wind. Numerical estimates, referring to the lower corona, are offered in support of this hypothesis.

Olbert, S.↗

Comparison of Global Distributions of Zonal-Mean Gravity Wave Variance Inferred from Different Satellite Instruments

Gravity wave temperature fluctuations acquired by the CRISTA instrument are compared to previous estimates of zonal-mean gravity wave temperature variance inferred from the LIMS, MLS and GPS/MET satellite instruments during northern winter. Careful attention is paid to the range of vertical wavelengths resolved by each instrument. Good agreement between CRISTA data and previously published results from LIMS, MLS and GPS/MET are found. Key latitudinal features in these variances are consistent with previous findings from ground-based measurements and some simple models. We conclude that all four satellite instruments provide reliable global data on zonal-mean gravity wave temperature fluctuations throughout the middle atmosphere.

Preusse, Peter↗

Cratering Rates in the Jovian System

We use several independent constraints on the number of ecliptic comets to estimate impact cratering rates on the Jupiter moons. The impact rate on Jupiter by 1.5-km diameter ecliptic comets is currently NY(d > 1.5km) = 0.005(+0.006)(-0.003) per annum. Asteroids and long period comets are currently unimportant. The size-number distribution of ecliptic comets smaller than 20 km is inferred from size-number distributions of impact craters on Europa, Ganymede, and Triton. For comets bigger than 50 km we use the size-number distribution of Kuiper Belt Objects. The overview of the impact rate at Jupiter in general and at Europa in particular are given. These impact rates imply cratering rates on Europa of 0.5 per Ma per 10(exp 6) sq km for impact craters bigger than 1 km, and of 0.015 per Ma per 10(exp 6) sq km for impact craters bigger than 20 km. The latter corresponds to an average recurrence time of 2.2 Ma for 20 km craters. The best current estimates for the number of 20 km craters on Europa appear to range between about twelve to thirty. This implies that the average age of Europa's surface is between 30 and 70 Ma. The average density of craters with diameter greater than 1 km on well-mapped swaths on Europa is 30 per 10(exp 6) sq km. The corresponding nominal surface age would be 60 Ma. These two estimates are not truly independent because we have used size-number distribution of the Europan craters to help generate the size-number distribution of comets. The uncertainty of the best estimate - call it 42 Ma for specificity - is at least a factor of 3.

Zahnle, K.↗

The effect of areal density asymmetries on scattered neutron spectra in ICF implosions

Scattered neutron spectroscopy is a diagnostic technique commonly used to measure areal density in inertial confinement fusion experiments. Deleterious areal density asymmetries modify the shape of the scattered neutron spectrum. In this work, a novel analysis is developed, which can be used to fit the shape change. This will allow experimental scattered neutron spectroscopy to directly infer the amplitude and mode of the areal density asymmetries, with little sensitivity to confounding factors that affect other diagnostics for areal density. The model is tested on spectra produced by a neutron transport calculation with both isotropic and anisotropic primary fusion neutron sources. Multiple lines of sight are required to infer the areal density distribution over the whole sphere—we investigate the error propagation and optimal detector arrangement associated with the inference of mode 1 asymmetries.

Crilly, A. J. (ORCID:0000000204299332)↗

Remote sensing of high-latitude ionization profiles by ground-based and spaceborne instrumentation

Ionospheric specification and modeling are now largely based on data provided by active remote sensing with radiowave techniques (ionosondes, incoherent-scatter radars, and satellite beacons). More recently, passive remote sensing techniques have been developed that can be used to monitor quantitatively the spatial distribution of high-latitude E-region ionization. These passive methods depend on the measurement, or inference, of the energy distribution of precipitating kilovolt electrons, the principal source of the nighttime E-region at high latitudes. To validate these techniques, coordinated measurements of the auroral ionosphere have been made with the Chatanika incoherent-scatter radar and a variety of ground-based and spaceborne sensors

Vondrak, R. R.↗

Data-driven high-dimensional statistical inference with generative models

Crucial to many measurements at the LHC is the use of correlated multi-dimensional information to distinguish rare processes from large backgrounds, which is complicated by the poor modeling of many of the crucial backgrounds in Monte Carlo simulations. In this work, we introduce HI-SIGMA, a method to perform unbinned high-dimensional statistical inference with data-driven background distributions. In contradistinction to many applications of Simulation Based Inference in High Energy Physics, HI-SIGMA relies on generative ML models, rather than classifiers, to learn the signal and background distributions in the high-dimensional space. These ML models allow for interpretable inference while also incorporating model errors and other sources of systematic uncertainties. We showcase this methodology on a simplified version of a di-Higgs measurement in the bbγγ final state, where the di-photon resonance allows for background interpolation from sidebands into the signal region. We demonstrate that HI-SIGMA provides improved sensitivity as compared to standard classifier-based methods, and that systematic uncertainties can be straightforwardly incorporated by extending methods which have been used for histogram based analyses.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Three-dimensional reconstruction of inertial confinement fusion hot-spot plasma from x-ray and nuclear diagnostics on OMEGA

Multidimensional effects degrade the neutron yield and the compressed areal density of laser-direct-drive inertial confinement fusion implosions of layered deuterium–tritium cryogenic targets on the OMEGA Laser System with respect to 1D radiation-hydrodynamic simulation predictions. A comprehensive physics-informed 3D reconstruction effort is under way to infer hot-spot and shell conditions at stagnation from four x-ray and seven neutron detectors distributed around the OMEGA target chamber. Neutron diagnostics, providing measurements of the neutron yield, hot-spot flow velocity, and apparent ion-temperature distribution, are used to infer the mode-1 perturbation at stagnation. The x-ray imagers record the shape of the hot-spot plasma to diagnose mode-1 and mode-2 perturbations. A deep-learning convolutional neural network trained on an extensive set of 3D radiation-hydrodynamic simulations is used to interpret the x-ray and nuclear measurements to infer the 3D profiles of the hot-spot plasma conditions and the amount of laser energy coupled to the hot-spot plasma. A 3D simulation database shows that larger mode-1 asymmetries are correlated with higher hot-spot flow velocities and reduced laser-energy coupling and neutron yield. Three-dimensional hot-spot reconstructions from x-ray measurements indicate that higher amounts of residual kinetic energy are correlated with higher measured hot-spot flow velocities, consistent with 3D simulations.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Behavior of Triple Langmuir Probes in Non-Equilibrium Plasmas

The triple Langmuir probe is an electrostatic probe in which three probe tips collect current when inserted into a plasma. The triple probe differs from a simple single Langmuir probe in the nature of the voltage applied to the probe tips. In the single probe, a swept voltage is applied to the probe tip to acquire a waveform showing the collected current as a function of applied voltage (I-V curve). In a triple probe three probe tips are electrically coupled to each other with constant voltages applied between each of the tips. The voltages are selected such that they would represent three points on the single Langmuir probe I-V curve. Elimination of the voltage sweep makes it possible to measure time-varying plasma properties in transient plasmas. Under the assumption of a Maxwellian plasma, one can determine the time-varying plasma temperature T(sub e)(t) and number density n(sub e)(t) from the applied voltage levels and the time-histories of the collected currents. In the present paper we examine the theory of triple probe operation, specifically focusing on the assumption of a Maxwellian plasma. Triple probe measurements have been widely employed for a number of pulsed and timevarying plasmas, including pulsed plasma thrusters (PPTs), dense plasma focus devices, plasma flows, and fusion experiments. While the equilibrium assumption may be justified for some applications, it is unlikely that it is fully justifiable for all pulsed and time-varying plasmas or for all times during the pulse of a plasma device. To examine a simple non-equilibrium plasma case, we return to basic governing equations of probe current collection and compute the current to the probes for a distribution function consisting of two Maxwellian distributions with different temperatures (the two-temperature Maxwellian). A variation of this method is also employed, where one of the Maxwellians is offset from zero (in velocity space) to add a suprathermal beam of electrons to the tail of the main Maxwellian distribution (the bump-on-the-tail distribution function). For a range of parameters in these non-Maxwellian distributions, we compute the current collection to the probes. We compare the distribution function that was assumed a priori with the distribution function one would infer when applying standard triple probe theory to analyze the collected currents. For the assumed class of non-Maxwellian distribution functions this serves to illustrate the effect a non-Maxwellian plasma would have on results interpreted using the equilibrium triple probe current collection theory, allowing us to state the magnitudes of these deviations as a function of the assumed distribution function properties.

Polzin, Kurt A.↗

Long-term variations in abundance and distribution of sulfuric acid vapor in the Venus atmosphere inferred from Pioneer Venus and Magellan radio occultation studies

Radio occultation experiments have been used to study various properties of planetary atmospheres, including pressure and temperature profiles, and the abundance profiles of absorbing constituents in those planetary atmospheres. However, the reduction of amplitude data from such experiments to determine abundance profiles requires the application of the inverse Abel transform (IAT) and numerical differentiation of experimental data. These two operations preferentially amplify measurement errors above the true signal underlying the data. A new technique for processing radio occultation data has been developed that greatly reduces the errors in the derived absorptivity and abundance profiles. This technique has been applied to datasets acquired from Pioneer Venus Orbiter radio occultation studies and more recently to experiments conducted with the Magellan spacecraft. While primarily designed for radar studies of the Venus surface, the high radiated power (EIRP) from the Magellan spacecraft makes it an ideal transmitter for measuring the refractivity and absorptivity of the Venus atmosphere by such experiments. The longevity of the Pioneer Venus Orbiter has made it possible to study long-term changes in the abundance and distribution of sulfuric acid vapor, H2SO4(g), in the Venus atmosphere between 1979 and 1992. The abundance of H2SO4(g) can be inferred from vertical profiles of 13-cm absorptivity profiles retrieved from radio occultation experiments. Data from 1979 and 1986-87 suggest that the abundance of H2SO4(g) at latitudes northward of 70 deg decreased over this time period. This change may be due to a period of active volcanism in the late 1970s followed by a relative quiescent period, or some other dynamic process in the Venus atmosphere. While the cause is not certain, such changes must be incorporated into dynamic models of the Venus atmosphere. Potentially, the Magellan spacecraft will extend the results of Pioneer Venus Orbiter and allow the continued monitoring of the abundance of distribution of H2SO4(g) in the Venus atmosphere, as well as other interesting atmospheric properties. Without such measurements it will be difficult to address other issues such as the short-term spatial variability of the abundance of H2SO4(g) at similar latitudes in Venus atmosphere, and the identities of particles responsible for large-scale variations observed in NIR images.

Jenkins, J. M.↗

The abundance and distribution of water vapor in the Jovian troposphere as inferred from Voyager IRIS observations

The Voyager IRIS spectra of the Jovian North Equatorial Belt (NEB) hot spots are reanalyzed using a radiative transfer model which includes the full effects of anisotropic multiple scattering by clouds. The atmospheric model includes the three thermochemically predicted cloud layers, NH3, NH4SH, and H2O. Spectrally dependent cloud extinction is modeled using Mie theory and the refractive indices of NH3 ice, NH4SH ice, water, and H2O ice. The upper tropospheric temperature profile, gas abundances, height-dependent parahydrogen profile, and vertical distribution of NH3 cloud opacity are retrieved from an analysis of the far-infrared (180-1200/cm) IRIS observations. With these properties constrained, the 5-micron (1800-2300/cm) observations are analyzed to determine the atmospheric and cloud structure of the deeper atmosphere (P of greater than 1.5 bars). The results show that the abundance of water is at least 1.5 times solar with 2 times solar (0.00276 mixing ratio relative to H2) providing the best-fit to the Voyager IRIS hot spot observations.

Carlson, Barbara E.↗

System Would Detect Foreign-Object Damage in Turbofan Engine

A proposed data-fusion system, to be implemented mostly in software, would further process the digitized and preprocessed outputs of sensors in a turbofan engine to detect foreign-object damage (FOD) [more precisely, damage caused by impingement of such foreign objects as birds, pieces of ice, and runway debris]. The proposed system could help a flight crew to decide what, if any, response is necessary to complete a flight safely, and could aid mechanics in deciding what post-flight maintenance action might be needed. The sensory information to be utilized by the proposed system would consist of (1) the output of an accelerometer in an engine-vibration-monitoring subsystem and (2) features extracted from a gas path analysis. ["Gas path analysis" (GPA) is a term of art that denotes comprehensive analysis of engine performance derived from readings of fuel-flow meters, shaft-speed sensors, temperature sensors, and the like.] The acceleration signal would first be processed by a wavelet-transform-based algorithm, using a wavelet created for the specific purpose of finding abrupt FOD-induced changes in noisy accelerometer signals. Two additional features extracted would be the amplitude of vibration (determined via a single- frequency Fourier transform calculated at the rotational speed of the engine), and the rate of change in amplitude due to an FOD-induced rotor imbalance. This system would utilize two GPA features: the fan efficiency and the rate of change of fan efficiency with time. The selected GPA and vibrational features would be assessed by two fuzzy-logic inference engines, denoted the "Gas Path Expert" and the "Vibration Expert," respectively (see Figure 1). Each of these inference engines would generate a "possibility" distribution for occurrence of an FOD event: Each inference engine would assign, to its input information, degrees of membership, which would subsequently be transformed into basic probability assignments for the gas path and vibration components. The outputs of the inference engines would be fused by use of Dempster s combination algorithm (more precisely, an algorithm, based on the Dempster-Shafer-Yager theory of evidence, for fusing uncertain or imprecise information) to provide a reduced body of information to a human or computer decision maker. Figure 2 depicts some outputs generated in response to simulated accelerometer and GPA signals

Torso, James A.↗

Interpreting ion-energy distributions using charge exchange emitted from deeply kinetic field-reversed-configuration plasmas

Energy resolving the atomic hydrogen outflux created within plasmas by charge exchange (CX) of hot plasma ions with cooler hydrogen neutrals is used to infer the ion energy distribution within the plasma, IED p . In high- β plasma with field nulls and ion gyro-radii comparable to the plasma size, the measured ion energy distribution (IED m ) of the CX outflux will depend on the viewing angle and position of the detector. Here, we describe the physics for this, results from a synthetic diagnostic code that contrasts the IED m to the IED p within relatively small and hot field-reversed-configuration plasmas, and how these data can show the presence of magnetic nulls and different orbit classes in the plasma.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗