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At least 271 records · Page 15

Cosmic Complexity

What explains the extraordinary complexity of the observed universe, on all scales from quarks to the accelerating universe? My favorite explanation (which I certainty did not invent) ls that the fundamental laws of physics produce natural instability, energy flows, and chaos. Some call the result the Life Force, some note that the Earth is a living system itself (Gaia, a "tough bitch" according to Margulis), and some conclude that the observed complexity requires a supernatural explanation (of which we have many). But my dad was a statistician (of dairy cows) and he told me about cells and genes and evolution and chance when I was very small. So a scientist must look for me explanation of how nature's laws and statistics brought us into conscious existence. And how is that seemll"!gly Improbable events are actually happening a!1 the time? Well, the physicists have countless examples of natural instability, in which energy is released to power change from simplicity to complexity. One of the most common to see is that cooling water vapor below the freezing point produces snowflakes, no two alike, and all complex and beautiful. We see it often so we are not amazed. But physlc!sts have observed so many kinds of these changes from one structure to another (we call them phase transitions) that the Nobel Prize in 1992 could be awarded for understanding the mathematics of their common features. Now for a few examples of how the laws of nature produce the instabilities that lead to our own existence. First, the Big Bang (what an insufficient name!) apparently came from an instability, in which the "false vacuum" eventually decayed into the ordinary vacuum we have today, plus the most fundamental particles we know, the quarks and leptons. So the universe as a whole started with an instability. Then, a great expansion and cooling happened, and the loose quarks, finding themselves unstable too, bound themselves together into today's less elementary particles like protons and neutrons, liberating a little energy and creating complexity. Then, the expanding universe cooled some more, and neutrons and protons, no longer kept apart by immense temperatures, found themselves unstable and formed helium nuclei. Then, a little more cooling, and atomic nuclei and electrons were no longer kept apart, and the universe became transparent. Then a little more cooling, and the next instability began: gravitation pulled matter together across cosmic distances to form stars and galaxies. This instability is described as a "negative heat capadty" in which extracting energy from a gravitating system makes it hotter -- clearly the 2nd law of thermodynamics does not apply here! (This is the physicist's part of the answer to e e cummings' question: what is the wonder that's keeping the stars apart?) Then, the next instability is that hydrogen and helium nuclei can fuse together to release energy and make stars burn for billions of years. And then at the end of the fuel source, stars become unstable and explode and liberate the chemical elements back into space. And because of that, on planets like Earth, sustained energy flows support the development of additional instabilities and all kinds of complex patterns. Gravitational instability pulls the densest materials into the core of the Earth, leaving a thin skin of water and air, and makes the interior churn incessantly as heat flows outwards. And the heat from the sun, received mostly near the equator and flowing towards the poles, supports the complex atmospheric and oceanic circulations. And because or that, the physical Earth is full of natural chemical laboratories, concentrating elements here, mixing them there, raising and lowering temperatures, ceaselessly experimenting with uncountable events where new instabilities can arise. At least one of them was the new experiment called life. Now that we know that there are at least as many planets as there are stars, it is hard to imagine that nature's ceasess experimentation would not be able to produce life elsewhere -- but we don't know for sure. And life went on to cause new Instabilities, constantly evolving, with living things in an extraordinary range of environments, changing the global environment, with boom-and-bust cycles. with predators for every kInd of prey, with criminals for every possible crime, with governments to prevent them, and instabilities of the governments themselves. One of the instabilities Is that humans demand new weapons and new products of all sort, leading to serious investments in science and technology. So the natural/human world of competition and combat is structured to lead to advanced weaponry and cell phones. So here we are In 2012, with people writing essays and wondering whether their descendents will be artificial life forms travelling back into space. And, pondering what are the origins of those forces of nature that give rise to everything. Verllnde has argued that gravitation, the one force that has so far resisted our efforts at a Quantum description, is not even a fundamental force, but is itself it a statistical force, like osmosis. What an amazing turn of events! But after all I've just said, I should not be surprised a bit.

Mather, John C.↗

Swampland cobordism conjecture and non-Abelian duality groups

We study the cobordism conjecture of McNamara and Vafa which asserts that the bordism group of quantum gravity is trivial. In the context of type IIB string theory compactified on a circle, this predicts the presence of D7-branes. On the other hand, the non-Abelian structure of the IIB duality group SL (2, Z) implies the existence of additional [p, q] 7-branes. We find that this additional information is instead captured by the space of closed paths on the moduli space of elliptic curves parameterizing distinct values of the type IIB axio-dilaton. This description allows to recover the full structure of non-Abelian braid statistics for 7-branes. Combining the cobordism conjecture with an earlier Swampland conjecture by Ooguri and Vafa, we argue that only certain congruence subgroups $\Gamma\subset$ SL(2, Z) specifying genus zero modular curves can appear in 8D F-theory vacua. This leads to a successful prediction for the allowed Mordell–Weil torsion groups for 8D F-theory vacua.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Fungal mat growth and leaf colonization at the TRACE warming experiment, Mar - Aug 2024, Luquillo, Puerto Rico

This data package contains processed measurements on the growth of litter mat-forming fungi and the time to leaf colonization at the Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE). Located near the Sabana Field Research Station in Luquillo, Puerto Rico, the TRACE site is located in a mature, closed-canopy tropical rainforest within the Luquillo Experimental Forest (LEF). These data quantify fungal mat growth and the time to leaf colonization of fungi species Gymnopus johnstonii and Marasmius crinis-equi. The experiment was conducted in ambient (control) and experimentally warmed plots (4°C above ambient) during spring and summer periods to assess how litter mat-forming fungi respond to a range of environmental conditions of tropical wet forests. The data files include tables of relative fungal mat growth rates, time to leaf colonization, averages of soil temperature (°C), and number of dry days before leaf attachment. The data are stored in comma-separated values (CSV) format and viewable with any text editor, spreadsheet, or statistical software (e.g., R, Python, Excel). Associated metadata describe plot identifiers, measurement descriptions, and processing steps.

Agaric fungi↗

Forecast of future aviation fuels: The model

A conceptual models of the commercial air transportation industry is developed which can be used to predict trends in economics, demand, and consumption. The methodology is based on digraph theory, which considers the interaction of variables and propagation of changes. Air transportation economics are treated by examination of major variables, their relationships, historic trends, and calculation of regression coefficients. A description of the modeling technique and a compilation of historic airline industry statistics used to determine interaction coefficients are included. Results of model validations show negligible difference between actual and projected values over the twenty-eight year period of 1959 to 1976. A limited application of the method presents forecasts of air tranportation industry demand, growth, revenue, costs, and fuel consumption to 2020 for two scenarios of future economic growth and energy consumption.

Ayati, M. B.↗

Activity Catalog Tool (ACT) user manual, version 2.0

This report comprises the user manual for version 2.0 of the Activity Catalog Tool (ACT) software program, developed by Leon D. Segal and Anthony D. Andre in cooperation with NASA Ames Aerospace Human Factors Research Division, FLR branch. ACT is a software tool for recording and analyzing sequences of activity over time that runs on the Macintosh platform. It was designed as an aid for professionals who are interested in observing and understanding human behavior in field settings, or from video or audio recordings of the same. Specifically, the program is aimed at two primary areas of interest: human-machine interactions and interactions between humans. The program provides a means by which an observer can record an observed sequence of events, logging such parameters as frequency and duration of particular events. The program goes further by providing the user with a quantified description of the observed sequence, through application of a basic set of statistical routines, and enables merging and appending of several files and more extensive analysis of the resultant data.

Segal, Leon D.↗

Supercomputing in the Age of Discovering Superearths, Earths and Exoplanet Systems

With the Kepler Mission, exoplanet science has entered the era of Big Data and has benefited tremendously from the availability of the NAS (NASA Advanced Supercomputing Division) Pleiades supercomputer. This presentation provides an overview of the history of exoplanet discoveries and highlights the key enabling technologies for Kepler. I provide an overview of the Kepler science pipeline and the algorithms used to analyze the data and detect transiting planets, all of which run routinely on the NAS Pleiades system. The presentation also provides a description of the Blender analysis program used to validate Kepler planet discoveries statistically, and the effort to discover exomoons lurking in Kepler data, both of which also run on Pleiades. Finally, I describe NASA's TESS (Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite) Mission, which leverages Kepler heritage to provide a science pipeline similar to that for Kepler and that will also run routinely on the NAS Pleiades supercomputer.

big data↗

Filtering, averaging, and scale dependency in homogeneous variable density turbulence

We investigate relationships between statistics obtained from filtering and from ensemble or Reynolds-averaging turbulence flow fields as a function of length scale. Generalized central moments in the filtering approach are expressed as inner products of generalized fluctuating quantities, q ' ( ξ , x ) = q ( ξ ) - q ¯ ( x ) , representing fluctuations of a field q ( ξ ) , at any point ξ, with respect to its filtered value at x. For positive-definite filter kernels, these expressions provide a scale-resolving framework, with statistics and realizability conditions at any length scale. In the small-scale limit, scale-resolving statistics become zero. In the large-scale limit, scale-resolving statistics and realizability conditions are the same as in the Reynolds-averaged description. Using direct numerical simulations (DNS) of homogeneous variable density turbulence, we diagnose Reynolds stresses, T i j , resolved kinetic energy, kr, turbulent mass-flux velocity, a i , and density-specific volume covariance, b, defined in the scale-resolving framework. These variables, and terms in their governing equations, vary smoothly between zero and their Reynolds-averaged definitions at the small and large scale limits, respectively. At intermediate scales, the governing equations exhibit interactions between terms that are not active in the Reynolds-averaged limit. For example, in the Reynolds-averaged limit, b follows a decaying process driven by a destruction term; at intermediate length scales, it is a balance between production, redistribution, destruction, and transport, where b grows as the density spectrum develops and then decays when mixing becomes strong enough. This work supports the notion of a generalized, length-scale adaptive model that converges to DNS at high resolutions and to Reynolds-averaged statistics at coarse resolutions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Parallelization of the Physical-Space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS)

Atmospheric data assimilation is a method of combining observations with model forecasts to produce a more accurate description of the atmosphere than the observations or forecast alone can provide. Data assimilation plays an increasingly important role in the study of climate and atmospheric chemistry. The NASA Data Assimilation Office (DAO) has developed the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS) to create assimilated datasets. The core computational components of the GEOS DAS include the GEOS General Circulation Model (GCM) and the Physical-space Statistical Analysis System (PSAS). The need for timely validation of scientific enhancements to the data assimilation system poses computational demands that are best met by distributed parallel software. PSAS is implemented in Fortran 90 using object-based design principles. The analysis portions of the code solve two equations. The first of these is the "innovation" equation, which is solved on the unstructured observation grid using a preconditioned conjugate gradient (CG) method. The "analysis" equation is a transformation from the observation grid back to a structured grid, and is solved by a direct matrix-vector multiplication. Use of a factored-operator formulation reduces the computational complexity of both the CG solver and the matrix-vector multiplication, rendering the matrix-vector multiplications as a successive product of operators on a vector. Sparsity is introduced to these operators by partitioning the observations using an icosahedral decomposition scheme. PSAS builds a large (approx. 128MB) run-time database of parameters used in the calculation of these operators. Implementing a message passing parallel computing paradigm into an existing yet developing computational system as complex as PSAS is nontrivial. One of the technical challenges is balancing the requirements for computational reproducibility with the need for high performance. The problem of computational reproducibility is well known in the parallel computing community. It is a requirement that the parallel code perform calculations in a fashion that will yield identical results on different configurations of processing elements on the same platform. In some cases this problem can be solved by sacrificing performance. Meeting this requirement and still achieving high performance is very difficult. Topics to be discussed include: current PSAS design and parallelization strategy; reproducibility issues; load balance vs. database memory demands, possible solutions to these problems.

Larson, J. W.↗

On the three-dimensional spatial correlations of curved dislocation systems

Abstract Coarse-grained descriptions of dislocation motion in crystalline metals inherently represent a loss of information regarding dislocation-dislocation interactions. In the present work, we consider a coarse-graining framework capable of re-capturing these interactions by means of the dislocation-dislocation correlation functions. The framework depends on a convolution length to define slip-system-specific dislocation densities. Following a statistical definition of this coarse-graining process, we define a spatial correlation function which will allow the arrangement of the discrete line system at two points—and thus the strength of their interactions at short range—to be recaptured into a mean field description of dislocation dynamics. Through a statistical homogeneity argument, we present a method of evaluating this correlation function from discrete dislocation dynamics simulations. Finally, results of this evaluation are shown in the form of the correlation of dislocation densities on the same slip-system. These correlation functions are seen to depend weakly on plastic strain, and in turn, the dislocation density, but are seen to depend strongly on the convolution length. Implications of these correlation functions in regard to continuum dislocation dynamics as well as future directions of investigation are also discussed.

Anderson, Joseph Pierre (ORCID:0000000329760903)↗

Integrating NASA Dryden Research Endeavors into the Teaching-Learning of Mathematics in the K-12 Classroom via the WWW

The primary goal of this project was to continue populating the currently existing web site developed in 1998 in conjunction with the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center and California Polytechnic State University, with more mathematics lesson plans and activities that K-12 teachers, students, home-schoolers, and parents could access. All of the activities, while demonstrating some mathematical topic, also showcase the research endeavors of the NASA Dryden Flight Research Center. The website is located at: http://daniel.calpoly.edu/~dfrc/Robin. The secondary goal of this project was to share the web-based activities with educators at various conferences and workshops. To address the primary goal of this project, over the past year, several new activities were posted on the web site and some of the existing activities were enhanced to contain more video clips, photos, and materials for teachers. To address the project's secondary goal, the web-based activities were showcased at several conferences and workshops. Additionally, in order to measure and assess the outreach impact of the web site, a link to the web site hitbox.com was established in April 2001, which allowed for the collection of traffic statistics against the web site (such as the domains of visitors, the frequency of visitors to this web site, etc.) Provided is a description of some of the newly created activities posted on the web site during the project period of 2001-2002, followed by a description of the conferences and workshops at which some of the web-based activities were showcased. Next is a brief summary of the web site's traffic statistics demonstrating its worldwide educational impact, followed by a listing of some of the awards and accolades the web site has received.

Ward, Robin A.↗

Model Validation Database for Fires Involving Fuels at Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities

This document provides a description of the model evaluation protocol (MEP) database for fires involving liquefied natural gas (LNG) and processing fuels at LNG facilities. The purpose of the MEP is to provide procedures regarding the assessment of a model's suitability to predict thermal exclusion zones resulting from a fire. The database includes measurements from pool fire, jet fire, and fireball experiments which are provided in a spreadsheet. Users are to enter model results into the spreadsheet which automatically generates statistical performance measures and graphical comparisons with the experimental data. The intent of this document is to provide a description of the experiments and of the procedure required to carry out the validation portion of the MEP. In addition, the statistical performance measures, measurements for comparisons, and parameter variation are provided.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Model Validation Database for Fires Involving Fuels at Liquefied Natural Gas Facilities (Version 2)

This document provides a description of the model evaluation protocol (MEP) database for fires involving liquefied natural gas (LNG) and processing fuels at LNG facilities. The purpose of the MEP is to provide procedures regarding the assessment of a model’s suitability to predict thermal exclusion zones resulting from a fire. The database includes measurements from pool fire, jet fire, and fireball experiments which are provided in a spreadsheet. Users are to enter model results into the spreadsheet which automatically generates statistical performance measures and graphical comparisons with the experimental data. The intent of this document is to provide a description of the experiments and of the procedure required to carry out the validation portion of the MEP. In addition, the statistical performance measures, measurements for comparisons, and parameter variation are provided.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Goddard trajectory determination subsystem: Mathematical specifications

The mathematical specifications of the Goddard trajectory determination subsystem of the flight dynamics system are presented. These specifications include the mathematical description of the coordinate systems, dynamic and measurement model, numerical integration techniques, and statistical estimation concepts.

Wagner, W. E.↗

Mariner 9 data storage subsystem flight performance summary

The performance is summarized of the Mariner 9 Data Storage Subsystem (DSS) throughout the primary and extended missions. Information presented is limited to reporting of anomalies which occurred during the playback sequences. Tables and figures describe the anomalies (dropouts, missing and added bits, in the imaging data) as a function of time (accumulated tape passes). The data results indicate that the performance of the DSS was satisfactory and within specification throughout the mission. The data presented is taken from the Spacecraft Team Incident/Surprise Anomaly Log recorded during the mission. Pertinent statistics concerning the tape transport performance are given. Also presented is a brief description of DSS operation, particularly that related to the recorded anomalies. This covers the video data encoding and how it is interpreted/decoded by ground data processing and the functional operation of the DSS in abnormal conditions such as loss of lock to the playback signal.

Thomas, N. E.↗

An unsupervised classification technique for multispectral remote sensing data.

Description of a two-part clustering technique consisting of (a) a sequential statistical clustering, which is essentially a sequential variance analysis, and (b) a generalized K-means clustering. In this composite clustering technique, the output of (a) is a set of initial clusters which are input to (b) for further improvement by an iterative scheme. This unsupervised composite technique was employed for automatic classification of two sets of remote multispectral earth resource observations. The classification accuracy by the unsupervised technique is found to be comparable to that by traditional supervised maximum-likelihood classification techniques.

Su, M. Y.↗

Advances in Raman Lidar Measurements of Water Vapor, Cirrus Clouds and Carbon Dioxide

Narrow-band interference filters with improved transmission in the ultraviolet have been developed under NASA-funded research and used in the Raman Airborne Spectroscopic Lidar (RASL) in ground- based, upward-looking tests. RASL is an airborne Raman Lidar system designed to measure water vapor mixing ratio, and aerosol backscatter/extinction/depolarization. It also possesses the capability to make experimental measurements of cloud liquid water and carbon dioxide. It is being prepared for first flight tests during the summer of 2006. With the newly developed filters installed in RASL, measurements were made of atmospheric water vapor, cirrus cloud optical properties and carbon dioxide that improve upon any previously demonstrated using Raman lidar. Daytime boundary layer profiling of water vapor mixing ratio is performed with less than 5% random error using temporal and spatial resolution of 2-minutes and 60 - 210, respectively. Daytime cirrus cloud optical depth and extinction- to-backscatter ratio measurements are made using 1-minute average. Sufficient signal strength is demonstrated to permit the simultaneous profiling of carbon dioxide and water vapor mixing ratio into the free troposphere during the nighttime. Downward-looking from an airborne RASL should possess the same measurement statistics with approximately a factor of 5 - 10 decrease in averaging time. A description of the technology improvements are provided followed by examples of the improved Raman lidar measurements.

Whiteman, David N.↗

Construction of Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test (SFDT-2) Vehicle Monte Carlo Splashdown Footprints for Use in Range Safety and Recovery Planning

Overview of Low Density Supersonic Decelerator (LDSD) SFDT-2 ( Supersonic Flight Dynamics Test-2) flight profile; Description of Monte Carlo flight dynamics simulations performed; Modeling and uncertainties; Results with statistical prediction of test vehicle splashdown location; Use of Monte Carlo results for range safety and recovery planning.

Strauss, Bill↗

A statistical model for telecommunication link design

An evaluation is conducted of the current telecommunication link design technique and a description is presented of an alternative method, called the probability distribution method (PDM), which is free of the disadvantages of the current technique while retaining its advantages. The PDM preserves the simplicity of the design control table (DCT) format. The use of the DCT as a management design control tool is continued. The telecommunication link margin probability density function used presents the probability of achieving any particular value of link performance. It is, therefore, possible to assess the performance risk and other tradeoffs.

Yuen, J. H.↗