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Exploring uncertainties in global crop yield projections in a large ensemble of crop models and CMIP5 and CMIP6 climate scenarios

Concerns over climate change are motivated in large part because of their impact on human society. Assessing the effect of that uncertainty on specific potential impacts is demanding, since it requires a systematic survey over both climate and impacts models. We provide a comprehensive evaluation of uncertainty in projected crop yields for maize, spring and winter wheat, rice, and soybean, using a suite of nine crop models and up to 45 CMIP5 and 34 CMIP6 climate projections for three different forcing scenarios. To make this task computationally tractable, we use a new set of statistical crop model emulators. We find that climate and crop models contribute about equally to overall uncertainty. While the ranges of yield uncertainties under CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections are similar, median impact in aggregate total caloric production is typically more negative for the CMIP6 projections (+1% to −19%) than for CMIP5 (+5% to −13%). In the first half of the 21st century and for individual crops is the spread across crop models typically wider than that across climate models, but we find distinct differences between crops: globally, wheat and maize uncertainties are dominated by the crop models, but soybean and rice are more sensitive to the climate projections. Climate models with very similar global mean warming can lead to very different aggregate impacts so that climate model uncertainties remain a significant contributor to agricultural impacts uncertainty. These results show the utility of large-ensemble methods that allow comprehensively evaluating factors affecting crop yields or other impacts under climate change. The crop model ensemble used here is unbalanced and pulls the assumption that all projections are equally plausible into question. Better methods for consistent model testing, also at the level of individual processes, will have to be developed and applied by the crop modeling community.

crop yield projections↗

Helicopter training simulators: Key market factors

Simulators will gain an increasingly important role in training helicopter pilots only if the simulators are of sufficient fidelity to provide positive transfer of skills to the aircraft. This must be done within an economic model of return on investment. Although rotor pilot demand is still only a small percentage of overall pilot requirements, it will grow in significance. This presentation described the salient factors influencing the use of helicopter training simulators.

Mcintosh, John↗

STOP Modeling for the JWST: Techniques, Results, and Sensitivities

The James Web Space Telescope (JWST) is a large, infrared-optimized, space telescope scheduled for launch to L2 in 2011. It must meet rigorous thermal stability requirements, almost all of which will be verified through analysis. Terrestrial testing will be performed but even that will require significant analytical interpretation of results. Preliminary analysis indicates that traditional second-order effects could cause the telescope to exceed established performance requirements. This leads to very large detailed models, primarily since composite tubes are being modeled using solid elements. To minimize differences between the current baseline and the model the project is using a number of rapid analysis cycles. The large size of the telescope models and the short cycle time creates a demanding multidisciplinary analysis environment.

John D. Johnston↗

Reliability Analysis of Systems Subject to First-Passage Failure

An obvious goal of reliability analysis is the avoidance of system failure. However, it is generally recognized that it is often not feasible to design a practical or useful system for which failure is impossible. Thus it is necessary to use techniques that estimate the likelihood of failure based on modeling the uncertainty about such items as the demands on and capacities of various elements in the system. This usually involves the use of probability theory, and a design is considered acceptable if it has a sufficiently small probability of failure. This report contains findings of analyses of systems subject to first-passage failure.

Lutes, Loren D.↗

Revisiting the Potential of Melt Pond Fraction as a Predictor for the Seasonal Arctic Sea Ice Extent Minimum

The rapid change in Arctic sea ice in recent decades has led to a rising demand for seasonal sea ice prediction. A recent modeling study that employed a prognostic melt pond model in a stand-alone sea ice model found that September Arctic sea ice extent can be accurately predicted from the melt pond fraction in May. Here we show that satellite observations show no evidence of predictive skill in May. However, we find that a significantly strong relationship (high predictability) first emerges as the melt pond fraction is integrated from early May to late June, with a persistent strong relationship only occurring after late July. Our results highlight that late spring to mid summer melt pond information is required to improve the prediction skill of the seasonal sea ice minimum. Furthermore, satellite observations indicate a much higher percentage of melt pond formation in May than does the aforementioned model simulation, which points to the need to reconcile model simulations and observations, in order to better understand key mechanisms of melt pond formation and evolution and their influence on sea ice state.

sea ice↗

Spacecraft Micro-Vibration: A Survey of Problems, Experiences, Potential Solutions, and Some Lessons Learned

Predicting, managing, controlling, and testing spacecraft micro-vibrations due to on-board internal disturbance sources is a formidable multi-disciplinary systems engineering challenge, especially for those observatories hosting extremely sensitive optical sensor payloads with stringent requirements on allowable Line-of-Sight (LOS) jitter. In this paper some specific spacecraft micro-vibration engineering challenges will be introduced and described. Technical background context is provided with the inclusion of several illustrative examples of NASA and ESA missions (both past and present) where dynamic interactions have to be addressed and which have demanding payload instrument LOS jitter requirements. A general modeling, analysis, simulation, and test approach to address and solve the overall problem of spacecraft micro-vibrations is outlined. Recommended rules of thumb are presented to provide guidance for analysts on where to initiate and how to approach a new spacecraft micro-vibration design problem. A set of experience based spacecraft micro-vibration lessons learned are also presented in the hope they can be leveraged on new system development projects to help overcome unfamiliarity with previously identified micro-vibration technical pitfalls and challenges.

Alvarez-Salazar, Oscar S.↗

A Combined Al-Mg/Pb-Pb Age of the Solar System

Astrophysical models of planet formation and protoplanetary disk evolution demand precise and accurate timing of the sequence of events in the solar nebula, relative to a time t=0, usually taken to be during the short epoch of CAI (Ca-rich, Al-rich inclusion) formation. Most CAIs formed withlive26Al (mean-life τ26= 1.034 Myr [1]), with an abundance 26Al/27Al ≈ (26Al/27Al)SS= 5.23 × 10-5[2]. We adopt this as the widespread level of 26Al in the solar nebula at t=0. Assuming spatial homogeneity of 26Al, an inclusion that had less 26Al, (26Al/27Al)0, formed a time Δt26= τ26ln[(26Al/27Al)SS/ (26Al/27Al)0] after t=0.These ages are typical precise to within ±0.1 Myr. Igneous bulk meteorites and inclusions can be relatively dated by the Al-Mg chronometer, but only ifΔt26<6 Myr. The Pb-Pb system is useful as a longer relative chronometer. It yields absolute ages tPb using 207Pb/206Pb, 206Pb/204Pb, and 238U/235U ratios measured indifferent portions of a sample, assuming certain half-lives [4]. These absolute ages are uncertain to within ±9 Myr due to uncertainties in the 235U half-life[3], but times of formation ΔtPb= tCAI–tPb relative to t=0, are more precise(±0.5Myr),iftCAI can be found. Here, tCAI means the Pb-Pb age that would be measured in CAIs using the half-lives the community typically uses, if they achieved isotopic closure at t=0. Unfortunately, direct Pb-Pb dating of CAIs has not definitively determined tCAI. Based on four CAIs with canonical (26Al/27Al)0,[5,6] found tPb= 4567.30 ± 0.16 Myr. No other CAI ages with measured 238U/235U have been reported in the refereed literature, but there are hints of other CAIs with ages tPb= 4568.0 ± 0.2 Myr [7] and tPb= 4568.3 ± 0.2 Myr [8].It is unclear whether anyof these igneous type B CAIs isotopically closed at t=0 or represents tCAI. Instead of measurements, we advocate finding tCAI by minimizing the discrepancies between the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb chronometers. Assuming Δt26=ΔtPb, we find the implied t’CAI= tPb+Δt26, then define t*CAIas the weighted mean of the t’CAI. t*CAIis the best guess for the Pb-Pb age of t=0; the assumption of homogeneity is justified if the t’CAI cluster within errors around t*CAI. This statistical approach is similar to, but improves on, that of[9]. We find t*CAI= 4568.73 ± 0.16 Myr. Below we discuss our methodology and the implications of this age for CAIs, 1.4 Myr older than the reported and typically used age 4567.30±0.16 Myr. Methods: We base our estimate of t*CAIon five achondrites for which published (26Al/27Al)0and Pb-Pb ages exist: the quenched angrites D’Orbigny, Sahara 99555 (SAH 99555), and Northwest Africa (NWA) 1670; the pseudo-eucrite Asuka 881394; and the inner disk achondrite. All are “NC” (non-carbonaceous) achondrites that likely cooled quickly enough that the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems achieved isotopic closure simultaneously. We also considered the “CC” (carbonaceous chondrite-like) achondrites NWA 2796 and NWA 6704, butdo not include them in our fit. Al-Mg and Pb-Pb seem not to have closed simultaneously, possibly because formation in the outer disk from volatile-rich composition led to slower cooling. Of the 8 chondrules from NWA 5697 measured by [20,21], we also consider the 4 for which 238U/235U was measured: 2-C1, 5-C2, 3-C5, 11-C1.Depending on their post-formation thermal histories, the Al-Mg and Pb-Pb systems in chondrules may or may not have closed simultaneously. Table 1: (26Al/27Al)0, Pb-Pb ages of selected samplesSample(26Al/27Al)0/ 10-6RefPb-PbRefD’Orbigny3.98±0.15104563.43±0.19♮10-12SAH 995553.64±0.18104563.88±0.2712NWA16705.92±0.59104564.39±0.24*10Asuka 88139413.1±0.5613-154564.98±0.1715NWA 73253.03±0.14164563.4±2.616NWA 27963.94±0.16174562.89±0.5917NWA 67043.03±0.14184562.76±0.26192-C17.56±1.53204567.57±0.56*215-C27.04±1.51204567.54±0.52*213-C58.85±1.83204566.20±0.63*2111-C15.55±1.84204565.84±0.72*21*regression based on one subset of data points ♮weighted mean of two datasets Pb-Pb ages are proportional to the intercept of the line formed by linear regression of 207Pb/206Pb vs. 206Pb/204Pb data from various washes, leachates and residues of acid dissolution of a sample. Because contamination by terrestrial or primordial Pb is pervasive, some fractions must be excluded from regressions to ensure a fit with acceptable mean squares weighted deviation (MSWD). Usually points are excluded based on low [Pb], or low 206Pb/204Pb ratio(low radiogenic component), with single outliers identified [11,12,15,16,17]. In the starred examples (Table 1)and the case of 3 CAI Pb-Pb ages [5], up to half the points were excluded solely because did not fit a pre-determined line. This approach is vulnerable to confirmation bias and produces fits with low MSWD and too-low Pb-Pb age uncertainty. Regressing the same data points as [10], were produce the Pb-Pb age of NWA 1670 of 4564.39±0.24 Myr. But selecting other combinations of data points, other, equally valid, isochrons yield ages from 4563.77±0.21 Myr to 4564.64±0.23 Myr. Similar arguments apply to the Pb-Pb isochrons built by [21] for chondrules 2-C1 (we find 4567.33±0.44 to 4567.85±0.46 Myr), 5-C2 (4566.84±0.53 to 4567.70±0.44 Myr), 3-C5 (4565.84±0.54to 4567.04±0.54)and 11-C1 (4565.36±0.51 to 4565.74±0.45 Myr). Our adopted ages for these and NWA 1670 are listed in Table 2.Table 2. tCAI estimated from various components, using our regressions for the chondrules & NWA 1670.SampleΔt26(Myr)tPb(Myr)t’CAI(Myr)D’Orbigny5.05±0.044563.43±0.194568.48±0.19SAH 995555.14±0.054563.88±0.274569.02±0.27NWA16704.64±0.104564.21±0.634568.85±0.67Asuka 8813943.81±0.044564.98±0.174568.79±0.17NWA 73255.33±0.054563.4±2.64568.7±2.6NWA 27965.06±0.044562.89±0.594567.95±0.59NWA 67045.29±0.134562.76±0.264568.05±0.292-C12.00±0.214567.59±0.704569.59±0.725-C22.07±0.224567.23±0.914569.30±0.933-C51.84±0.214566.44±1.124568.28±1.1411-C12.32±0.344565.52±0.664567.84±0.73achondrite4568.72±0.16chondrules4568.76±0.58combined4568.73±0.16A weighted average of the five NC achondrites(or just D’Orbigny, SAH 99555 and Asuka 881394)yields t*CAI= 4568.72 ± 0.16Myr. All are consistent with this value to within 1.8σ, and MSWD=1.5. Including the 4 U-corrected chondrules, t*CAI= 4568.73± 0.16Myrwith MSWD=1.66, which is statistically significant. All chondrules and NC achondrites are consistent with this to within 1.8σ, (Figure 1).Figure 1. Al-Mg formation times after t=0 vs. Pb-Pb ages. The five NC achondrites and four chondrules are consistent with a Pb-Pb age of t=0 of 4568.7 Myr. Discussion: The data from achondrites and chondrules are consistent with a single Pb-Pb age at t=0, justifying the assumption of 26Al homogeneity. The age, 4568.7 Myr, is ≈1.4 Myr older than the commonly accepted Pb-Pb age of CAIs that formed with canonical 26Al/27Al at t=0 [3]. Others have interpreted the discrepancy to signify 26Al heterogeneity in the CAI-forming region[5,21]. We suggest instead that CAIs were exposed to transient heating events that reset the Pb-Pb system without disturbing the Al-Mg system. Notably, chondrules typically experienced transient heating at these times in the nebula [22]. If so, direct measurements of CAIs will not yield as reliable a Pb-Pb age of t=0 as statistical approaches like this and that of [9].References:[1] Auer et al. 2009. [2] Jacobsen, B et al. 2008, EPSL 272, 353-364. [3] Tissot, Fet al. 2017, GCA 213, 593-617.[4] Villa, I et al. 2016, GCA 172, 387-392.[5] Amelin, Y et al. 2010, EPSL 300, 343-350.[6] Connelly, Jet al. 2012, Science 338, 651.[7] Bouvier, Aet al. 2011, LPICo 1639, 9054. [8] Bouvier, Aand Wadhwa, M2010, Nat Geosci 3, 637-641.[9] Nyquist, Let al. 2009, GCA 73, 5115-5136.[10] Schiller et al. 2015. [11] Wadhwa & Brennecka 2012. [12] Tissot et al. 2017. [13] Nyquist et al. 2003. [14] Wadhwa et al. 2009. [15] Wimpenny et al. 2019, GCA 244, 478-501.[16] Koefoed et al. 2016, GCA 183, 31-45. [17] Bouvier, A et al. 2011, GCA 75, 5310-5323. [18] Sanborn, Met al. 2019, GCA 245, 577-596. [19] Amelin, Yet al. 2019, GCA 245, 628-642.[20] Bollard, Jet al. 2017, Sci Adv 3 ,e1700407. [21] Bollard, Jet al. 2019, GCA 260, 62-83.[22] Villeneuve, J et al. 2009, Science 325, 985

S. J. Desch↗

A Contemporary Analysis of the O'Neill-Glaser Model for Space-Based Solar Power and Habitat Construction

In 1975 Gerard O Neill published in the journal Science a model for the construction of solar power satellites. He found that the solar power satellites suggested by Peter Glaser would be too massive to launch economically from Earth, but could be financially viable if the workforce was permanently located in free space habitats and if lunar and asteroid materials were used for construction. All new worldwide electrical generating capacity could be then achieved by solar power satellites. The project would financially break even in about 20 years after which it would generate substantial income selling power below fossil fuel prices. Two NASA / Stanford University led studies at Ames Research center during the summers of 1974 and 1976 found the concept technically sound and developed a detailed financial parametric model. Although the project was not undertaken when suggested in the 1970s, several contemporary issues make pursuing the O Neill -- Glaser concept more compelling today. First, our analysis suggests that if in the first ten years of construction that small habitats (compared to the large vista habitats envisioned by O Neill) supporting approximately 300 people were utilized, development costs of the program and the time for financial break even could be substantially improved. Second, the contemporary consensus is developing that carbon free energy is required to mitigate global climate change. It is estimated that 300 GW of new carbon free energy would be necessary per year to stabilize global atmospheric carbon. This is about 4 times greater energy demand than was considered by the O Neill Glaser model. Our analysis suggests that after the initial investments in lunar mining and space manufacturing and transportation, that the profit margin for producing space solar power is very high (even when selling power below fossil fuel prices). We have investigated the financial scaling of ground launched versus space derived space solar power satellites. We find that for the carbon mitigation case even modernized ground launched space solar power satellites are not financially viable. For space derived solar power satellites, however, the increased demand makes them break even substantially sooner and yield much higher profit. Third, current awareness is increasing about the dangers of humanity remaining a single planet species. Our technological power has been increasing relative to the size of the planet Earth. Since the middle of the 20th century our technological power has grown large relative to our planet's size. This presents a very real potential for human self-extinction. We argue that the potential for human self-extinction is increasing with time in proportion to the exponential growth of our technological power making self-extinction likely within this century if humanity remains a single planet species. The O Neill model of multiple independent free space habitats, it is argued, can protect humanity from extinction in the same way that portfolio diversification protects ones assets from total loss. We show that about 1 million people for the electricity only case, and about 1 billion people for the carbon mitigation case, can be provided with permanent space habitats and transportation from Earth in 30 years and can be funded by the space derived solar power satellite program. 1.2 Scope of this Chapter The goal of this chapter is to illustrate the power and importance of the O'Neill-Glaser concept in the context of human survival and maintaining a healthy planet Earth. We argue that at this point in human history our technological power is too dangerous to our selves and our home planet for us not to expand into space. We show by the models presented in the chapter that the imminent dangers of global warming and human self-extinction mandate that humanity move aggressively into the solar system in this generation. We show that the production of solar power satellites using space resources and with a work foe living in space provides a viable financial model to mitigate CO2 preventing the worst global warming scenarios, and safeguards humanity against self-extinction by providing hundreds of habitats and a billion people living in space within about 35 years. To accomplish this goal we need only consider the classic O'Neill-Glaser model which was parameterized for 1970's technological projections. Only habitat size optimization for the first ten years of production is added. This is a conservative approach since the innovations of the last 30 years will make the financial projections more favorable. However, the classic O'Neill-Glaser model represented a broad technological consensus. The model is well documented in the references and our calculations can be easily reproduced In this chapter the economics of the O Neill - Glaser model is compared with models that rely exclusively on Earth launched materials. Although many studies of Earth launched Solar Power Satellites have been made, we found that the NASA "Fresh Look Study" was the most comprehensive and well documented. It also provided one of the most optimistic Earth launch financial projections. We thus chose it for comparison purposes.

Curreri, Peter A.↗

Integration of Information Management System, Workflow and Computational Tools Enabling Multiscale Modeling Within an ICME Paradigm

With the increased emphasis on reducing the cost and time to market of new materials, the need for analytical tools that enable the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing - internal structure - property - performance envelope, along with the capturing and storing of the associated material and model information across its lifecycle, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. Fortunately, material information management systems and physics-based multiscale modeling methods have kept pace with the growing user demands. Herein, recent efforts to develop a set of Python functions that exchange information between NASA GRC's Integrated multiscale Micromechanics Analysis Code (ImMAC) software toolset and its Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME), Granta MI® database schema is presented. The goal is to enable seamless coupling between both test data and simulation data, which is captured and tracked automatically within Granta MI®, with full model pedigree information. These tools, and this type of linkage, are foundational to realizing the full potential of ICME, in which materials processing, microstructure, properties, and performance are coupled to enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures.

multiscale modeling; Micromechanics; Computational↗

Control of a Flexible Space Antenna: A Finite Dimensional Perspective Based on Distributed Parameter Theory

The methods presented are based on results from infinite dimensional control theory, but they can be described and used in a finite dimensional context. This blend leads to an approach which employs powerful ideas on convergence, and is also quite practical for systems of realistic complexity. Appropriate reduced order models are generated simultaneously with the development of the compensator. The required models change as a function of changes in the performance demanded, sensor and actuator location, inherent damping, disturbances, etc. Thus they are driven by the control and estimation problems at hand. The compensators which emerge are very close to the ideal compensators which would be obtained with a very large order model. However, some simplification is frequently possible. The method of balanced realizations was found to be effective for this purpose.

Mingori, D. L.↗

Information Management Workflow and Tools Enabling Multiscale Modeling Within ICME Paradigm

With the increased emphasis on reducing the cost and time to market of new materials, the need for analytical tools that enable the virtual design and optimization of materials throughout their processing - internal structure - property - performance envelope, along with the capturing and storing of the associated material and model information across its lifecycle, has become critical. This need is also fueled by the demands for higher efficiency in material testing; consistency, quality and traceability of data; product design; engineering analysis; as well as control of access to proprietary or sensitive information. Fortunately, material information management systems and physics-based multiscale modeling methods have kept pace with the growing user demands. Herein, recent efforts to establish workflow for and demonstrate a unique set of web application tools for linking NASA GRC's Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) Granta MI database schema and NASA GRC's Integrated multiscale Micromechanics Analysis Code (ImMAC) software toolset are presented. The goal is to enable seamless coupling between both test data and simulation data, which is captured and tracked automatically within Granta MI®, with full model pedigree information. These tools, and this type of linkage, are foundational to realizing the full potential of ICME, in which materials processing, microstructure, properties, and performance are coupled to enable application-driven design and optimization of materials and structures.

Materials Engineering↗

Computational Model of Human and System Dynamics in Free Flight: Studies in Distributed Control Technologies

This paper presents a set of studies in full mission simulation and the development of a predictive computational model of human performance in control of complex airspace operations. NASA and the FAA have initiated programs of research and development to provide flight crew, airline operations and air traffic managers with automation aids to increase capacity in en route and terminal area to support the goals of safe, flexible, predictable and efficient operations. In support of these developments, we present a computational model to aid design that includes representation of multiple cognitive agents (both human operators and intelligent aiding systems). The demands of air traffic management require representation of many intelligent agents sharing world-models, coordinating action/intention, and scheduling goals and actions in a potentially unpredictable world of operations. The operator-model structure includes attention functions, action priority, and situation assessment. The cognitive model has been expanded to include working memory operations including retrieval from long-term store, and interference. The operator's activity structures have been developed to provide for anticipation (knowledge of the intention and action of remote operators), and to respond to failures of the system and other operators in the system in situation-specific paradigms. System stability and operator actions can be predicted by using the model. The model's predictive accuracy was verified using the full-mission simulation data of commercial flight deck operations with advanced air traffic management techniques.

Corker, Kevin M.↗

Direct numerical simulation of a combusting droplet with convection

The evaporation and combustion of a single droplet under forced and natural convection was studied numerically from first principles using a numerical scheme that solves the time-dependent multiphase and multispecies Navier-Stokes equations and tracks the sharp gas-liquid interface cutting across an arbitrary Eulerian grid. The flow fields both inside and outside of the droplet are resolved in a unified fashion. Additional governing equations model the interphase mass, energy, and momentum exchange. Test cases involving iso-octane, n-hexane, and n-propanol droplets show reasonable comparison rate, and flame stand-off distance. The partially validated code is, thus, readied to be applied to more demanding droplet combustion situations where substantial drop deformation render classical models inadequate.

Liang, Pak-Yan↗

Thermal Model Development for an X-Ray Mirror Assembly

Space-based x-ray optics require stringent thermal environmental control to achieve the desired image quality. Future x-ray telescopes will employ hundreds of nearly cylindrical, thin mirror shells to maximize effective area, with each shell built from small azimuthal segment pairs for manufacturability. Thermal issues with these thin optics are inevitable because the mirrors must have a near unobstructed view of space while maintaining near uniform 20 C temperature to avoid thermal deformations. NASA Goddard has been investigating the thermal characteristics of a future x-ray telescope with an image requirement of 5 arc-seconds and only 1 arc-second focusing error allocated for thermal distortion. The telescope employs 135 effective mirror shells formed from 7320 individual mirror segments mounted in three rings of 18, 30, and 36 modules each. Thermal requirements demand a complex thermal control system and detailed thermal modeling to verify performance. This presentation introduces innovative modeling efforts used for the conceptual design of the mirror assembly and presents results demonstrating potential feasibility of the thermal requirements.

x ray optics↗

I-deas TMG to NX Space Systems Thermal Model Conversion and Computational Performance Comparison

CAD/CAE packages change on a continuous basis as the power of the tools increase to meet demands. End -users must adapt to new products as they come to market and replace legacy packages. CAE modeling has continued to evolve and is constantly becoming more detailed and complex. Though this comes at the cost of increased computing requirements Parallel processing coupled with appropriate hardware can minimize computation time. Users of Maya Thermal Model Generator (TMG) are faced with transitioning from NX I -deas to NX Space Systems Thermal (SST). It is important to understand what differences there are when changing software packages We are looking for consistency in results.

Thermal Model Generator (TMG)↗

Nonlinear Constitutive Relations for High Temperature Application, 1984

Nonlinear constitutive relations for high temperature applications were discussed. The state of the art in nonlinear constitutive modeling of high temperature materials was reviewed and the need for future research and development efforts in this area was identified. Considerable research efforts are urgently needed in the development of nonlinear constitutive relations for high temperature applications prompted by recent advances in high temperature materials technology and new demands on material and component performance. Topics discussed include: constitutive modeling, numerical methods, material testing, and structural applications.

Source record↗

A guide to the use of theoretical models of the solar nebula for the interpretation of the meteoritic record

Attempts to derive a theoretical framework for the interpretation of the meteoritic record have been frustrated by our incomplete understanding of the fundamental processes that controlled the evolution of the primitive solar nebula. Nevertheless, it is possible to develop qualitative models of the nebula that illuminate its dynamic character, as well as the roles of some key parameters. These models draw on the growing body of observational data on the properties of disks around young, solar-type stars, and are constructed by applying the results of known solutions of protostellar collapse problems; making simple assumptions about the radial variations of nebular variables; and imposing the integral constraints demanded by conservation of mass, angular momentum, and energy. The models so constructed are heuristic, rather than predictive; they are intended to help us think about the nebula in realistic ways, but they cannot provide a definitive description of conditions in the nebula.

Cassen, Pat↗

Outside users payload model

The outside users payload model which is a continuation of documents and replaces and supersedes the July 1984 edition is presented. The time period covered by this model is 1985 through 2000. The following sections are included: (1) definition of the scope of the model; (2) discussion of the methodology used; (3) overview of total demand; (4) summary of the estimated market segmentation by launch vehicle; (5) summary of the estimated market segmentation by user type; (6) details of the STS market forecast; (7) summary of transponder trends; (8) model overview by mission category; and (9) detailed mission models. All known non-NASA, non-DOD reimbursable payloads forecast to be flown by non-Soviet-block countries are included in this model with the exception of Spacelab payloads and small self contained payloads. Certain DOD-sponsored or cosponsored payloads are included if they are reimbursable launches.

Source record↗