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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty for a Digital Thread-Enabled Design Process

Abstract Digital thread is a data-driven architecture that links together information from all stages of the product lifecycle. Despite increasing application in manufacturing, maintenance/operations, and design related tasks, a principled formulation of analyzing the decision-making problem under uncertainty for the digital thread remains absent. The contribution of this article is to present a formulation using Bayesian statistics and decision theory. First, we address how uncertainty propagates in the product lifecycle and how the digital thread evolves based on the decisions we make and the data we collect. By using these mechanics, we explore designing over multiple product generations or iterations and provide an algorithm to solve the underlying multistage decision problem. We illustrate our method on an example structural design problem where our method can quantify and optimize different types and sequences of decisions, ranging from experimentation, manufacturing, and sensor placement/selection, to minimize total accrued costs.

Engineering↗
DOE OSTI2013

Assessment of health-care waste disposal methods using a VIKOR-based fuzzy multi-criteria decision making method

Highlights: • Propose a VIKOR-based fuzzy MCDM technique for evaluating HCW disposal methods. • Linguistic variables are used to assess the ratings and weights for the criteria. • The OWA operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers. • A case study is given to illustrate the procedure of the proposed framework. - Abstract: Nowadays selection of the appropriate treatment method in health-care waste (HCW) management has become a challenge task for the municipal authorities especially in developing countries. Assessment of HCW disposal alternatives can be regarded as a complicated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) problem which requires consideration of multiple alternative solutions and conflicting tangible and intangible criteria. The objective of this paper is to present a new MCDM technique based on fuzzy set theory and VIKOR method for evaluating HCW disposal methods. Linguistic variables are used by decision makers to assess the ratings and weights for the established criteria. The ordered weighted averaging (OWA) operator is utilized to aggregate individual opinions of decision makers into a group assessment. The computational procedure of the proposed framework is illustrated through a case study in Shanghai, one of the largest cities of China. The HCW treatment alternatives considered in this study include “incineration”, “steam sterilization”, “microwave” and “landfill”. The results obtained using the proposed approach are analyzed in a comparative way.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS2006

Decision Making Methods in Space Economics and Systems Engineering

This viewgraph presentation reviews various methods of decision making and the impact that they have on space economics and systems engineering. Some of the methods discussed are: Present Value and Internal Rate of Return (IRR); Cost-Benefit Analysis; Real Options; Cost-Effectiveness Analysis; Cost-Utility Analysis; Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT); and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

trade studies↗
DOE OSTI2013

A Cumulative Energy Demand indicator (CED), life cycle based, for industrial waste management decision making

Highlights: • We developed a methodology useful to environmentally compare industrial waste management options. • The methodology uses a Net Energy Demand indicator which is life cycle based. • The method was simplified to be widely used, thus avoiding cost driven decisions. • This methodology is useful for governments to promote the best environmental options. • This methodology can be widely used by other countries or regions around the world. - Abstract: Life cycle thinking is a good approach to be used for environmental decision-support, although the complexity of the Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) studies sometimes prevents their wide use. The purpose of this paper is to show how LCA methodology can be simplified to be more useful for certain applications. In order to improve waste management in Catalonia (Spain), a Cumulative Energy Demand indicator (LCA-based) has been used to obtain four mathematical models to help the government in the decision of preventing or allowing a specific waste from going out of the borders. The conceptual equations and all the subsequent developments and assumptions made to obtain the simplified models are presented. One of the four models is discussed in detail, presenting the final simplified equation to be subsequently used by the government in decision making. The resulting model has been found to be scientifically robust, simple to implement and, above all, fulfilling its purpose: the limitation of waste transport out of Catalonia unless the waste recovery operations are significantly better and justify this transport.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
NASA NTRS1991

Aircrew decision-making behavior in hazardous weather avoidance

A study was conducted to assess the situation awareness and decision-making behavior of aircrews in a line-oriented simulation of the microburst/windshear encounter which occurred on July 11, 1988, at the Denver Stapleton Airport as affected by the manner in which information available at different times and in different forms. Intracrew communications and approach-to-land decisions were evaluated with conventional ATC communications and with automated cockpit alerting and display of weather information. It was found that the avoidance dicision-making performance of aircrews provided only with conventional ATC transmissions of weather information was significantly less efficient than the performance of crews provided with a visual display of microburst events.

Lee, Alfred T.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Utility of Early Postoperative Unstimulated Thyroglobulin in Influencing Decision Making in Patients with Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Background: Serum thyroglobulin is used to screen for disease persistence or recurrence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). We sought to assess the utility of early postoperative unstimulated thyroglobulin levels (uTg) as a decision-making tool to guide the use of radioactive iodine (RAI) in PTC patients. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database of patients surgically treated for PTC from 2015 to 2017. We analyzed uTg approximately 6 weeks postoperatively. Patients undergoing total thyroidectomy or completion thyroidectomy were included in the study, and patients were analyzed according to postoperative uTg and receipt of RAI. Results: A total of 255 patients were analyzed, with 134 patients meeting the inclusion criteria. The median postoperative uTg was 0.3 ng/mL. Overall, 49.3% (66/134) of patients achieved the target uTg of ≤ 0.2 ng/mL at a mean time of 7.9 ± 0.3 weeks postoperatively; 60% (40/66) of patients who achieved uTg ≤ 0.2 ng/mL postoperatively did not receive RAI. A uTg ≤ 0.2 ng/mL was maintained at 6 months in 98.1% of patients, including 100% of patients who received RAI and 96.7% of patients who did not receive RAI (p = 0.8). Of those who did not receive RAI, none demonstrated structural disease recurrence on 6-month ultrasound. Patients with early postoperative uTg > 0.2–2.0 ng/mL showed benefit from RAI, while patients with uTg > 2.0 ng/mL did not achieve the targeted uTg level regardless of receipt of RAI. Conclusions: Postoperative uTg may be used to guide the use of RAI. Achieving near-undetectable uTg within 6 weeks postoperatively could aid providers in assessing disease burden and minimize RAI use for patients with a low-risk of disease recurrence. Continued follow-up is necessary to accurately determine long-term outcomes.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2011

Augmented cognition tool for rapid military decision making.

This report describes the laboratory directed research and development work to model relevant areas of the brain that associate multi-modal information for long-term storage for the purpose of creating a more effective, and more automated, association mechanism to support rapid decision making. Using the biology and functionality of the hippocampus as an analogy or inspiration, we have developed an artificial neural network architecture to associate k-tuples (paired associates) of multimodal input records. The architecture is composed of coupled unimodal self-organizing neural modules that learn generalizations of unimodal components of the input record. Cross modal associations, stored as a higher-order tensor, are learned incrementally as these generalizations form. Graph algorithms are then applied to the tensor to extract multi-modal association networks formed during learning. Doing so yields a novel approach to data mining for knowledge discovery. This report describes the neurobiological inspiration, architecture, and operational characteristics of our model, and also provides a real world terrorist network example to illustrate the model's functionality.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment in Shuttle Decision Making Process

This slide presentation reviews the use of Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) to assist in the decision making for the shuttle design and operation. Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) is a comprehensive, structured, and disciplined approach to identifying and analyzing risk in complex systems and/or processes that seeks answers to three basic questions: (i.e., what can go wrong? what is the likelihood of these occurring? and what are the consequences that could result if these occur?) The purpose of the Shuttle PRA (SPRA) is to provide a useful risk management tool for the Space Shuttle Program (SSP) to identify strengths and possible weaknesses in the Shuttle design and operation. SPRA was initially developed to support upgrade decisions, but has evolved into a tool that supports Flight Readiness Reviews (FRR) and near real-time flight decisions. Examples of the use of PRA for the shuttle are reviewed.

Boyer, Roger L.↗
DOE OSTI2018

An (R{sup ′},S{sup ′})-norm fuzzy relative information measure and its applications in strategic decision-making

In this communication, we propose two quantities named ‘An (R{sup ′},S{sup ′})-norm directed divergence measure’ and ‘(R{sup ′},S{sup ′})-norm fuzzy directed divergence measure’, establish their validity and discuss their properties. Further, the performance of proposed divergence measure is compared with some existing measures through a numerical example. Finally, the application of proposed fuzzy directed divergence measure is given in strategic decision-making and the outcome is compared with other methods in literature.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1972

A control theory model for human decision making

The optimal control model for pilot-vehicle systems has been extended to handle certain types of human decision tasks. The model for decision making incorporates the observation noise, optimal estimation, and prediction concepts that form the basis of the model for control behavior. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (1) single decision tasks; (2) two decision tasks; and (3) simultaneous manual control and decision tasks. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance scores to within an accuracy of 10 percent can be predicted. The experiment on simultaneous control and decision indicates the presence of task interference in this situation, but the results are not adequate to allow a conclusive test of the predictive capability of the model.

Levison, W. H.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Remote Sensing: A valuable tool in the Forest Service decision making process

Forest Service studies for integrating remotely sensed data into existing information systems highlight a need to: (1) re-examine present methods of collecting and organizing data, (2) develop an integrated information system for rapidly processing and interpreting data, (3) apply existing technological tools in new ways, and (4) provide accurate and timely information for making right management decisions. The Forest Service developed an integrated information system using remote sensors, microdensitometers, computer hardware and software, and interactive accessories. Their efforts substantially reduce the time it takes for collecting and processing data.

Stanton, F. L.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Experiments in pilot decision-making during simulated low visibility approaches

A simulation task is reported which incorporates both kinds of variables, informational and psychological, to successfully study pilot decision making behavior in the laboratory. Preliminary experiments in the measurement of decisions and the inducement of stress in simulated low visibility approaches are described.

Curry, R. E.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Decision making and problem solving with computer assistance

In modern guidance and control systems, the human as manager, supervisor, decision maker, problem solver and trouble shooter, often has to cope with a marginal mental workload. To improve this situation, computers should be used to reduce the operator from mental stress. This should not solely be done by increased automation, but by a reasonable sharing of tasks in a human-computer team, where the computer supports the human intelligence. Recent developments in this area are summarized. It is shown that interactive support of operator by intelligent computer is feasible during information evaluation, decision making and problem solving. The applied artificial intelligence algorithms comprehend pattern recognition and classification, adaptation and machine learning as well as dynamic and heuristic programming. Elementary examples are presented to explain basic principles.

Kraiss, F.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Application of Risk Informed Decision Making to Highly Reliable Three Dimensionally Woven Thermal Protection System for Mars Sample Return

The NASA Risk Informed Decision Making process is used to assess a trade space of three dimensionally woven thermal protection systems for application to the Mars Sample Return Earth Entry Vehicle. Candidate architectures are assessed based on mission assurance, technical development, cost, and schedule risk. Assessment methodology differed between the architectures, utilizing a four-point quantitative scale for mission assurance and technical development and highly tailored PERT techniques for cost and schedule. Risk results are presented, in addition to a review of RIDM effectiveness for this application.

Needels, J.↗