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At least 271 records · Page 15

Neural network-based classification and regression of magnetohydrodynamic modes in tokamaks

We present a machine learning-based magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) classifier and regressor that utilizes real or complex-valued 3D magnetic sensor array data to determine neoclassical tearing mode (NTM) onset times in tokamaks with millisecond accuracy. The input dataset consists of poloidal profiles of complex Fourier amplitudes with an n = 1 toroidal mode number from 144 human-labeled ITER Baseline Scenario discharges in the DIII-D tokamak, spanning both tearing-dominated and sawtooth-dominated regimes. Since m, n = 2,1 NTMs frequently emerge alongside sawteeth at the same frequency in this scenario, the focus is on isolating the m = 1 and m = 2 components of the n = 1 MHD mode near the tearing onset. To improve model regularization and prediction stability, singular value decomposition was applied to balance the sawtooth and tearing datasets. The enriched datasets facilitated training neural networks that learn the key distinguishing features of sawtooth and tearing modes in the poloidal profiles of their magnetic amplitude and phase. When the modes occur independently, the networks achieve perfect classification due to the modes’ distinct characteristics and low measurement noise. In the more experimentally relevant case where both modes coexist, the networks maintain exceptional performance across key metrics. Tests on synthetic data with known ground truth demonstrate the superior accuracy of the neural network trained on complex-valued input compared to models using real amplitude, phase, or pseudo-complex data, achieving both a mean time delay and standard deviation below 1 ms. Notably, standard linear regression methods fitting the dominant singular modes to the data closely match the neural network’s performance. Applying these methods across a broad range of H-mode scenarios will enable future studies to systematically identify dominant NTM triggers as scenario-specific variables, paving the way for more effective tearing mode avoidance strategies in future fusion reactor designs.

machine learning↗

Data driven discovery and quantification of hyperspectral leaf reflectance phenotypes across a maize diversity panel

Abstract Estimates of plant traits derived from hyperspectral reflectance data have the potential to efficiently substitute for traits, which are time or labor intensive to manually score. Typical workflows for estimating plant traits from hyperspectral reflectance data employ supervised classification models that can require substantial ground truth datasets for training. We explore the potential of an unsupervised approach, autoencoders, to extract meaningful traits from plant hyperspectral reflectance data using measurements of the reflectance of 2151 individual wavelengths of light from the leaves of maize ( Zea mays ) plants harvested from 1658 field plots in a replicated field trial. A subset of autoencoder‐derived variables exhibited significant repeatability, indicating that a substantial proportion of the total variance in these variables was explained by difference between maize genotypes, while other autoencoder variables appear to capture variation resulting from changes in leaf reflectance between different batches of data collection. Several of the repeatable latent variables were significantly correlated with other traits scored from the same maize field experiment, including one autoencoder‐derived latent variable (LV8) that predicted plant chlorophyll content modestly better than a supervised model trained on the same data. In at least one case, genome‐wide association study hits for variation in autoencoder‐derived variables were proximal to genes with known or plausible links to leaf phenotypes expected to alter hyperspectral reflectance. In aggregate, these results suggest that an unsupervised, autoencoder‐based approach can identify meaningful and genetically controlled variation in high‐dimensional, high‐throughput phenotyping data and link identified variables back to known plant traits of interest.

Tross, Michael C.↗

Defining and applying an electricity demand flexibility benchmarking metrics framework for grid-interactive efficient commercial buildings

Building demand flexibility (DF) research has recently gained attention. To unlock building DF as a predictable grid resource, we must establish a quantitative understanding of the resource size, performance variability, and predictability based on large empirical datasets. Researchers have proposed various sets of theoretical metrics to measure this performance. Some metrics have been applied to simulation results, but most fall short of exploring the complexities in real building applications. There are practical metrics used in individual demand response field studies but they alone cannot fulfil the job of DF benchmarking across a diverse group of buildings. The electrical grid's geographically diverse and changing nature presents challenges to comparing building DF performance measured under different conditions (i.e., benchmarking DF). To address this challenge, a novel DF benchmarking framework focused on load shedding and shifting is presented; the foundation is a set of simple, proven single-event metrics with attributes describing event conditions. These enable benchmarking and visualization in different dimensions for identifying trends that represent how these attributes influence DF. To test its feasibility and scalability, the DF framework was applied to two case studies of 11 office buildings and 121 big-box retail buildings with demand response participation data. Furthermore, these examples provided a pathway for using both building level benchmarking and aggregation to extract insights into building DF about magnitude, consistency, and influential factors. Potential applications of the framework and real-world values have been identified for grid and building stakeholders.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Overview and How-to Tutorial Videos for Using NEWTS Data

Overview and How-to Tutorial Videos for Using NEWTS Data Video 1: Overview of NEWTS Database Video 2: How-to tutorial for EPA Flue Gas Desulfurization (FGD) Effluent NEWTS dataset Video 3: How-to tutorial for USGS Produced Waters NEWTS dataset Video 4: How-to tutorial for EPA Ash NEWTS dataset Video 5: How-to tutorial for Quillinan, et al 2018 DOE Geothermal Technology Office REE dataset Video 6: Tutorial video on navigating the NEWTS Dashboard, with an overview of NEWTS and navigating between the NEWTS Dashboard and Datasets (https://netl-doe.maps.arcgis.com/apps/dashboards/a5fa4192f7c6478dab3d6180d9c30b84) Video 7: Additional tutorial video on navigating the NEWTS Dashboard and investigating specific data points in the Dashboard and Datasets Video 8: Re-record of recent webinar giving an overview of the NEWTS Database and Dashboard, including interacting with the NEWTS Dashboard, locating specific data points, and finding the relevant streams in the NEWTS Database and datasets on EDX. Includes overview of the datasets, case studies, and steps for taking stream data from the database and modeling stream data in OLI Studio and Geochemist's Workbench. Note: Video 3 tutorial is also applicable to the USGS Brackish Water NEWTS dataset.

Aqueous Chemistry↗

Mechanisms of Waterflood Inefficiency: Analysis of Geological, Petrophysical and Reservoir History, a Field Case Study of FWU (East Section)

The petroleum reservoir represents a complex heterogeneous system that requires thorough characterization prior to the implementation of any incremental recovery technique. One of the most commonly utilized and successful secondary recovery techniques is waterflooding. However, a lack of sufficient investigation into the inherent behavior and characteristics of the reservoir formation in situ can result in failure or suboptimal performance of waterflood operations. Therefore, a comprehensive understanding of the geological history, static and dynamic reservoir characteristics, and petrophysical data is essential for analyzing the mechanisms and causes of waterflood inefficiency and failure. In this study, waterflood inefficiency was observed in the Morrow B reservoir located in the Farnsworth Unit, situated in the northwestern shelf of the Anadarko Basin, Texas. To assess the potential mechanisms behind the inefficiency of waterflooding in the east half, geological, petrophysical, and reservoir engineering data, along with historical information, were integrated, reviewed, and analyzed. The integration and analysis of these datasets revealed that several factors contributed to the waterflood inefficiency. Firstly, the presence of abundant dispersed authigenic clays within the reservoir, worsened by low reservoir quality and high heterogeneity, led to unfavorable conditions for waterflood operations. The use of freshwater for flooding exacerbated the adverse effects of sensitive and migratory clays, further hampering the effectiveness of the waterflood. In addition to these factors, several reservoir engineering issues played a significant role in the inefficiency of waterflooding. These issues included inadequate perforation strategies due to the absence of detailed hydraulic flow units (HFUs) and rock typing, random placement of injectors, and uncontrolled injected fresh water. These external controlling parameters further contributed to the overall inefficiencies observed during waterflood operations in the east half of the reservoir. A detailed understanding of the mechanistic factors of inefficient waterflood operation will provide adequate insights into the development of the improved recovery technique for the field.

Morgan, Anthony (ORCID:0000000211519153)↗

Agentic framework for programmatic crystal structure generation using a fine-tuned worker–supervisor large language model

Platinum group metals (PGMs) underpin many catalytic technologies but face severe supply constraints, motivating the search for alternative materials and computational methods to accelerate discovery. While atomistic simulation tools such as Pymatgen and ASE have streamlined structure manipulation, they require detailed inputs, limiting accessibility for experimentalists and slowing early-stage exploration. Here, in this study, we present an AI-driven agentic framework that orchestrates worker–supervisor large language models (LLMs). The worker translates natural-language prompts of varying abstraction into valid crystallographic structures using a compact LLM fine-tuned with low-rank adaptation on a curated text–code–CIF dataset, emphasizing energy-efficient training. Benchmarking against the baseline CodeGen-350M-mono model shows that fine-tuning reduces hallucination rates from 100% to as low as 5% and improves structural match accuracy to up to 82% for fully specified inputs. Accuracy declines with decreasing prompt detail but remains nontrivial even when only stoichiometry and space group are provided, underscoring the LLM’s capacity for crystallographic inference. The supervisor Claude LLM evaluates the outputs and triggers iterative refinement through the worker’s built-in structure manipulation capabilities (e.g., supercell scaling, strain, vacancy, and substitution operations). We further demonstrate use cases for technologically relevant catalysts, including IrO 2 , pyrochlore Pb 2 Ir 2 O 7 , Ni 2 FeO 4 , and Ni 3 Mo, where the framework generates physically consistent structures that can be refined via geometry optimization. This work introduces a low-energy, language-driven pathway for integrating human and machine intelligence in materials design, paving the way for AI-assisted synthesis planning and high-throughput screening of complex oxides.

AI agent↗

ML-Based Power System Stability Assessment Considering Network Topology Changes: WECC 20,000+ Bus System Case Study

Modern power grids are fast-changing and thus require real-time monitoring and online stability assessment. With the rapid development of machine learning (ML) techniques, using data-driven models to provide fast and accurate estimations of power system stability marginal information, such as frequency nadir for frequency stability and critical clearing time (CCT) for transient stability, have become possible. However, despite the numerous research on ML-based methods for frequency nadir and CCT prediction, there is limited work on the impact of different network topology changes. Furthermore, most previous studies only focused on small or synthetic systems, and there is a lack of research on actual large power system models. In this paper, the above issues are addressed by studying the actual U.S. Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system model with more than 20,000 buses. Massive simulations are conducted in PowerWorld Simulator to study the impact of various topology change scenarios on both frequency stability and transient stability. System operating information is extracted from the success dispatch cases of various network topologies to generate a comprehensive dataset for ML-based models. Two ML methods, random forest (RF) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network, are trained and tested for both frequency nadir prediction and CCT prediction. Test results have proven the models are capable of online stability assessment for large power networks such as the WECC system with sufficient accuracy.

critical clearing time↗

Big Data Synchrophasor Monitoring and Analytics for Resiliency Tracking (BDSMART)

This report contains key findings from a project titled Big Data Synchrophasor Monitoring and Analytics for Resiliency Tracking (BDSMART), which was carried out through a collaborative effort of a team of researchers from Texas A&M Engineering Experiment Station, Temple University, and Quanta Technology, LLC. The in-kind support came from OSIsoft (acquired by AVEVA), which provided their PI Historian software to demonstrate the use case of streaming PMU data. The first section of the report describes the project goals and objectives related to the development of Machine Learning (ML) models capable of detecting and classifying events by processing phasor measurements captured in the field by Phasor Measurement Units (PMUs). The data for this study was contributed by the utilities/ISOs from the Western and Eastern interconnects and ERCOT, further referred to as Interconnect B (IC B), Interconnect A (IC A), and Interconnect C (IC C), respectively. The approach that the BDSMART Research Team proposed and the key research tasks defined by the team are outlined in this section. The next section describes the technical approach. We first discuss the data constraints related to the PMU measurements and data interpretation constraints imposed by the data contributors. They provided neither the topological information of the grid nor PMU placement locations and captured recorded data at very few locations in the system with the reporting rate of either 30 or 60 fps. The recordings are mostly positive sequence voltage, frequency, and ROCOF, and in some limited cases, three-phase voltages and currents. We then reflect on the bad data issues that stem from poor recording practices and vague definitions of the PMU status bits to supposedly be used for bad data identification. Finally, the data discovery points to imprecise time stamps with incomplete event start/end time, as well as inconsistent and incomplete event labeling, which combined make the implementation of the data models using supervising learning quite challenging. Following the data discovery study, we hypothesize that because the IC B data has the most complete labels, we should focus our model development on that data and then test it on data from other interconnects. We also define the common metrics used to evaluate the results from the ML algorithm tests. We concluded this section by summarizing the common ML models we used and explaining how we implemented and tested them. The issues from this section are expanded in the Training Dataset Report from this project. The final section of this report deals with the accomplishments and conclusions. As the accomplishments, we formulate the problem we are solving and what is achieved by solving the problem. We then reflect on each of the analytics tools we developed and point out the performance of each tool when applied to solving the mentioned problems. We reference this work for further details to the papers we published on each tool. In the conclusions, we give recommendations on how to improve future PMU recording practices to facilitate the ML algorithm implementation and guidance for the future standardization work aimed at clarifying the ambiguities associated with the PMU status bits. We finally list future tasks that can bring about further improvements in the proposed algorithms. The issues from this section are expanded in the Training, and Test Dataset Report filed at the project completion date.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Tree, Shrub, and Grass Classification Using Only RGB Images

In this work, a semantic segmentation-based deep learning method, DeepLabV3+, is applied to classify three vegetation land covers, which are tree, shrub, and grass using only three band color (RGB) images. DeepLabV3+’s detection performance has been studied on low and high resolution datasets that both contain tree, shrub, and grass and some other land cover types. The two datasets are heavily imbalanced where shrub pixels are much fewer than tree and grass pixels. A simple weighting strategy known as median frequency weighting was incorporated into DeepLabV3+ to mitigate the data imbalance issue, which originally used uniform weights. The tree, shrub, grass classification performances are compared when all land cover types are included in the classification and also when classification is limited to the three vegetation classes with both uniform and median frequency weights. Among the three vegetation types, shrub is found to be the most challenging one to classify correctly whereas correct classification accuracy was highest for tree. It is observed that even though the median frequency weighting did not improve the overall accuracy, it resulted in better classification accuracy for the underrepresented classes such as shrub in our case and it also significantly increased the average class accuracy. The classification performance and computation time comparison of DeepLabV3+ with two other pixel-based classification methods on sampled pixels of the three vegetation classes showed that DeepLabV3+ achieves significantly higher accuracy than these methods with a trade-off for longer model training time.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Exploring Object Detection and Image Classification Tasks for Niche Use Case in Naturalistic Driving Studies

Naturalistic driving studies consist of drivers using their personal vehicles and provide valuable real-world data, but privacy issues must be handled very carefully. Drivers sign a consent form when they elect to participate, but passengers do not for a variety of practical reasons. However, their privacy must still be protected. One large study includes a blurred image of the entire cabin which allows reviewers to find passengers in the vehicle; this protects the privacy but still allows a means of answering questions regarding the impact of passengers on driver behavior. A method for automatically counting the passengers would have scientific value for transportation researchers. We investigated different image analysis methods for automatically locating and counting the non-drivers including simple face detection and fine-tuned methods for image classification and a published object detection method. We also compared the image classification using convolutional neural network and vision transformer backbones. Our studies show the image classification method appears to work the best in terms of absolute performance, although we note the closed nature of our dataset and nature of the imagery makes the application somewhat niche and object detection methods also have advantages. We perform some analysis to support our conclusion.

Peruski, Ryan↗

Structural Evolution of the Hogback Monocline and Its Tectonic Significance in the San Juan Basin

The San Juan Basin is recognized as a Laramide foreland basin. It is located within the Colorado Plateau, a broad tectonic province characterized by a thick sedimentary sequence that was segmented into smaller sub basins during the Late Cretaceous to Paleogene Laramide orogeny. The Hogback Monocline lies along the northwestern margin of the San Juan Basin and is considered a Laramide-age structure formed in response to compressional stress. In this study, we interpret surface and subsurface datasets to construct a structural geological model and evaluate its tectonic significance. Through seismic data, we identify key fault and fold geometries at depth. The seismic dataset used in this study was reprocessed in depth and constrained with well log velocity data to enhance seismic imaging quality. Additionally, we performed well log correlations to identify formation tops and assess variations in basin infill and thickness geometry. A series of structural cross-sections, constructed using seismic data and a high density of boreholes, are presented to evaluate geometric variations along the structure and its evolution during basin development. Furthermore, kinematic restoration and forward modeling analyses were conducted to validate our structural interpretation. This work suggests that the Hogback Monocline formed through fault-propagation folding and flexural slip affecting the pre-Laramide sedimentary sequence under compressional stresses associated with the Laramide orogeny. This structure is interpreted as a high-angle reverse fault that influenced the geometry of the late basin infill. Additionally, monocline bending along the structure may have been controlled by fault relay systems and, in some cases, influenced by strike-slip faulting.

Reyes, Martin [New Mexico Bureau o fGeology and Mi↗

Federated learning for 2D synchrotron x-ray diffractometry: a cross-institutional approach for phase quantification of Ti–6Al–4V alloy

High-energy Two dimensional (2D) synchrotron x-ray diffractometry provides important insights into the atomistic structure and phase evolution of materials, yet traditional analysis methods remain complex, knowledge-intensive, and computationally demanding. Deep-learning models offer a powerful alternative for automating their analysis. Institutions that hold these datasets may be unwilling to share their data due to privacy and security policies, as well as the challenges associated with large-scale data transfer. As a result, models trained on local datasets often perform well only on their own data but exhibit bias and poor generalization across different instruments or facilities. To overcome these limitations, we explore federated learning (FL) for 2D synchrotron diffractograms, enabling collaborative model training without exchanging raw data. In this study, 2D synchrotron diffractograms of Ti–6Al–4V alloy collected from two independent facilities are used to train convolutional neural networks for predicting the β-phase volume fraction. Experimental results show that federated global models significantly outperform locally trained models in terms of generalization and achieve accuracy comparable to centralized trained models. These findings demonstrate the potential of FL to enable secure, cross-institutional collaboration and enhance the scalability of deep-learning-based materials characterization.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Comparing correlation components and approximations in Hartree–Fock and Kohn–Sham theories via an analytical test case study

The asymmetric Hubbard dimer is a model that allows for explicit expressions of the Hartree–Fock (HF) and Kohn–Sham (KS) states as analytical functions of the external potential, Δv, and of the interaction strength, U. We use this unique circumstance to establish a rigorous comparison between the individual contributions to the correlation energies stemming from the two theories in the {U, Δv} parameter space. Within this analysis of the Hubbard dimer, we observe a change in the sign of the HF kinetic correlation energy, compare the indirect repulsion energies, and derive an expression for the “traditional” correlation energy, i.e., the one that corrects the HF estimate, in a pure site-occupation function theory spirit [Eq. (45)]. Next, we test the performances of the Liu–Burke and the Seidl–Perdew–Levy functionals, which model the correlation energy based on its weak- and strong-interaction limit expansions and can be used for both the traditional and the KS correlation energies. Further, our results show that, in the Hubbard dimer setting, they typically work better for the HF reference, despite having been originally devised for KS. These conclusions are somewhat in line with prior assessments of these functionals on various chemical datasets. However, the Hubbard dimer model allows us to show the extent of the error that may occur in using the strong-interaction ingredient for the KS reference in place of the one for the HF reference, as has been carried out in most of the prior assessments.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

The soil health assessment protocol and evaluation applied to soil organic carbon

The concept of soil health has evolved over the past several decades, recognizing that dynamic soil property response to management and land use is highly dependent on site-specific factors that must be considered when interpreting soil health measurements. Initially, the Soil Management Assessment Framework (SMAF) and Comprehensive Assessment of Soil Health (CASH) were developed and used globally for scoring soil health indicators. However, both SMAF and CASH frameworks were developed using a relatively small dataset and their interpretation curves were not validated at the nationwide scale. Expanding upon these concepts, we propose the Soil Health Assessment Protocol and Evaluation (SHAPE) tool. The SHAPE was developed using 14,680 soil organic C (SOC) observations from across the United States, and accounts for edaphic and climate factors at the continental scale. Data were compiled from the literature, the Cornell Soil Health Laboratory, and the Kellogg Soil Survey Laboratory. In this approach, scoring curves are Bayesian model-based estimates of the conditional cumulative distribution function (CDF) for defined soil peer groups reflecting five soil texture and five soil suborder classes adjusted for mean annual temperature and precipitation. Specifically, SHAPE produces scores between 0 and 1 (0–100%) for measured SOC values that reflect the quantile or position within the conditional CDF along with measures of uncertainty. Herein, we focus on development of the SHAPE scoring curve for SOC with our case studies. SHAPE is a flexible, quantitative tool that provides a regionally relevant interpretation of this key soil health indicator.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Path-Based Dictionary Augmentation: A Framework for Improving $k$ -Sparse Image Processing

In this study, we have previously shown that augmenting orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) with an additional step in the identification stage of each pursuit iteration yields improved $k$ -sparse reconstruction and denoising performance relative to baseline OMP. At each iteration a “path” or geodesic, is generated between the two dictionary atoms that are most correlated with the residual and from this path a new atom that has a greater correlation to the residual than either of the two bracketing atoms is selected. Here, we provide new computational results illustrating improvements in sparse coding and denoising on canonical datasets using both learned and structured dictionaries. The two methods of constructing a path are investigated for each dictionary type: the Euclidean geodesic formed by a linear combination of the two atoms and the 2-Wasserstein geodesic corresponding to the optimal transport map between the atoms. We prove here the existence of a higher-correlation atom in the Euclidean case under assumptions on the two bracketing atoms and introduce algorithmic modifications to improve the likelihood that the bracketing atoms meet those conditions. Although, we demonstrate our augmentation on OMP alone, in general it may be applied to any reconstruction algorithm that relies on the selection and sorting of high-similarity atoms during an analysis or identification phase.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Accelerating Low-Income Financing and Transactions (LIFT) for Solar Access Everywhere (Final Technical Report)

The Accelerating Low-Income Financing and Transactions (LIFT) for Solar Access Everywhere project’s goal was to expand Low-to-Moderate Income (LMI) solar access for homeowners and renters. The LIFT project researched and gathered data on 453 LMI community solar project across the country. Following three years of research, the project delivered three groundbreaking research papers in June 2022, focused on 1) customer experience, 2) the growth of community solar programs, and 3) project-level financial best practices for serving LMI communities. These were followed by a user-friendly web-based Toolkit allowing users to interact with project data and key findings in November 2022. The customer experience research examined community solar subscribers’ primary motivations to join and remain satisfied with projects. Our research identified 453 projects across the country that dedicated some portion of the system capacity to LMI households. Seventeen of these projects participated in the LIFT customer experience research, allowing the project team to survey their customers and gain insight into how LMI subscribers feel about community solar and the programs that serve them. Subscribers in our sample indicated that the most critical issue that motivated them to participate in their program, however, was not savings but helping the environment. This was true for both LMI and non-LMI subscribers. Helping the environment was also the most important issue for LMI subscribers to measure how well their program was working for them. LIFT also explored how rapidly community solar has grown since its inception in 2006, publishing results in the Growth of U.S. Community Solar Serving LMI Households report. The results showed that community solar projects serving LMI households are one of the fastest growing segments of the solar industry. The report identifies and recommends ways developers should overcome real or perceived risks to LMI customer acquisition and subscriber management. Through the analysis of community solar project finance research, LIFT showed that most community solar projects serving LMI households are financed in the same ways mainstream community solar projects are financed. The value stacks and financial returns are no different, although LMI inclusion and participation rate varied across programs in our sample, ranging from between 10% and 100%. Based on the findings from the LIFT research, the team built a web-based user-friendly Toolkit, consisting of case studies, project finance best practices, and several tools built around the national dataset of 453 community solar projects that serve LMI households. These allow users to engage with the dataset in multiple ways; to explore the landscape of LMI community solar in the U.S., and to design community solar projects to optimize LMI inclusion, equity, and savings levels. The Toolkit also includes a library of LIFT-generated and LIFT-curated resources for users to learn more about how to best serve LMI communities through community solar. LIFT officially published the Toolkit on October 31, 2022, followed by a launch event (public webinar) on November 17, 2022. The core LIFT partners continue to engage in outreach and dissemination efforts to promote the LIFT Toolkit and research publications. Our driving motivation is to continue enabling solar developers to leverage the findings of this three-year research effort. By implication, the LIFT Toolkit is designed for use by utilities, energy service providers, and financiers or investors as a learning and decision-making tool to rapidly scale project models that optimize LMI inclusion and maximize real household savings.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Development of Time Lapse VSP Integration Workflow: A Case Study at Farnsworth CO2-EOR Project

Abstract This study aims to develop a 4D Vertical Seismic Profile (VSP) integration workflow to improve the prediction of subsurface stress changes. The selected study site is a 5-spot pattern within the ongoing CO2-EOR operations at the Farnsworth Field Unit FWU in Ochiltree County, Texas. The specific pattern has undergone extensive geological and geomechanical characterization through the acquisition of 3D seismic data, geophysical well logs, and core. This workflow constrains a numerical hydromechanical model by applying a penalty function formed between "modeled" versus "observed" time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. Analyses of geophysical logs and ultra-sonic measurements on core exhibit measurable sensitivities to changes in both fluid saturation and mean effective stress. These data are used to develop a site-specific rock physics model and stress-velocity relationship, which inform the numerical models used to generate the "modeled" portion of the penalty function. The "observed" portion of the penalty function is provided by a novel elastic full-waveform inversion of the available 3D baseline and three monitor surveys to produce high-quality estimates of time-lapse compressional and shear seismic velocity changes. The modeling workflow accounts sequentially for fluid substitution and stress impacts. Hydrodynamic and geomechanical properties of the 3D coupled numerical model are estimated through geostatistical integration of well log and core data with 3D seismic inversion products. Changes in seismic velocities due to fluid substitution are computed using the Biot-Gassmann workflow and site-specific rock physics. Stress impacts on time-lapse seismic velocity changes are modeled from the effective stress output of the hydromechanical model and are initially based on the velocity versus effective stress relationship extracted from core mechanical testing. Based on the principle of superposition of seismic wavefields, seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution and that due to changes in mean effective stress are treated as linearly additive. The modeled results are upscaled using Backus averaging to reconcile scale discrepancies between the modeled and measured datasets to formulate the penalty function. This manuscript presents the forward modeling process and concludes that for the base case, the seismic velocity changes due to mean effective stress dominates over the seismic velocity changes attributed to fluid substitution because of the extensive range of the pressure perturbations. Successful minimization of this penalty function calibrates the coupled hydrodynamic geomechanical numerical model and affirms the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements such as 4D-VSP for geomechanical calibration.

02 PETROLEUM↗

Chemometric modeling of power conversion efficiency of organic dyes in dye sensitized solar cells for the future renewable energy

The present study reports chemometric modeling of power conversion efficiency (PCE) of dye sensitized solar cells (DSSCs) using the biggest available data set till date which comprises around 1200 dyes covering 7 chemical classes. To extract the best structural features required for higher PCE, we have developed multiple partial least squares (PLS) quantitative structure-property relationship (QSPR) models for the Triphenylamine, Phenothiazine, Indoline, Porphyrin, Coumarin, Carbazole and Diphenylamine chemical classes using descriptors derived from the best subset selection method followed by selection of best five models in each dataset based on the Mean Absolute Error (MAE) values. The models were validated both internally and externally followed by the consensus predictions employing “Intelligent Consensus Predictor” tool to examine whether the quality of predictions can be improved with the “intelligent” selection of multiple PLS models. The quality of predictions for the respective external sets showed that the consensus models (CM) are better than the individual models (IM) in most of the cases. From the insights of the developed models, we concluded that attributes like a packed structure toward higher conductivity of electrons, auxiliary donor fragment of aromatic tertiary amines, number of thiophenes inducing the bathochromic shift and augmenting the absorption, presence of additional electron donors, enhancement of electron-donating abilities, number of non-aromatic conjugated C(sp 2 ) which helps as conjugation extension units to broaden the absorption and highly conjugated $π$-systems exert positive contributions to the PCE. On the contrary, features negatively contributing to PCE are the followings: fragments which lower the tendency of localized $π–π*$ transition, fragments related to larger volume and surface area of dyes along with hydrophobicity resulting in poor adhesion, fragment RC = N causing dye hydrolysis, steric hindrance for π electronic mobility, fragments enhancing polarity, etc. Finally, the identified features from the best QSPR model of the coumarin dataset was employed in designing of ten more efficient coumarin dyes (predicted %PCE ranging from 8.93 to 10.62) than the existing ones.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗