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At least 271 records · Page 15

Recent streamflow trends across permafrost basins of North America

Introduction Climate change impacts, including changing temperatures, precipitation, and vegetation, are widely anticipated to cause major shifts to the permafrost with resulting impacts to hydro-ecosystems across the high latitudes of the globe. However, it is challenging to examine streamflow shifts in these regions owing to a paucity of data, discontinuity of records, and other issues related to data consistency and accuracy. Methods Recent trends for long-term periods (1990–2021, 1976–2021) in observed minimum, mean, and maximum seasonal and annual streamflow were analyzed for a range of watersheds across North America affected by varying degrees of permafrost coverage. Results Streamflow trend analysis revealed that areas affected by permafrost are changing variably over the periods in terms of maximum, mean, and minimum seasonal and annual streamflow. These changes indicate a significant shift occurring in the most recent 46 years towards increasing mean streamflow for the dominant (> 50%) permafrost systems. Meanwhile, minimum streamflow increases for all permafrost-dominant systems and many of the other permafrost-affected systems across the seasons and annual periods considered, with the greatest number of significant changes in streamflow over other metrics. Maximum streamflow is shifting variably with significant increases in the permafrost-dominant systems in winter and fall over longer time periods of analysis. Our analysis suggests that streamflow trends are driven by climate (precipitation, followed by temperature), while variables such as permafrost coverage only appear important in the most recent 32-year period. Discussion The increases in streamflow trends observed in this study are reflective of deepening active layers and thawing permafrost, indicating that the entire hydrograph is undergoing change within permafrost-dominant streamflow systems as the Arctic moves towards a warmer future under climate change. Despite the many challenges to understanding changing streamflow in cold regions, there are new products and datasets in development that are increasingly allowing researchers to better understand the patterns of change in Arctic and subarctic systems affected by permafrost, offering a range of new tools, which, along with continued observational records, may help in improved understanding of changing Arctic streamflow patterns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Including massive neutrinos in thermal Sunyaev Zeldovich power spectrum and cluster counts analyses

We consistently include the effect of massive neutrinos in the thermal Sunyaev Zeldovich (SZ) power spectrum and cluster counts analyses, highlighting subtle dependencies on the total neutrino mass and data combination. In particular, we find that using the transfer functions for cold dark matter (CDM) + baryons in the computation of the halo mass function, instead of the transfer functions including neutrino perturbations, as prescribed in recent work, yields an ≈0.25 percent downward shift of the σ 8 constraint from tSZ power spectrum data, with a fiducial neutrino mass Σm ν = 0.06 eV. In ΛCDM, with an X-ray mass bias corresponding to the expected hydrostatic mass bias, i.e. (1 - b) ≃ 0.8, our constraints from Planck SZ data are consistent with the latest results from SPT, DES-Y1, and KiDS+VIKING-450. In νΛCDM, our joint analyses of Planck SZ with Planck 2015 primary CMB yield a small improvement on the total neutrino mass bound compared to the Planck 2015 primary CMB constraint, as well as (1 - b) = 0.64 ± 0.04 (68 percent CL). For forecasts, we find that competitive neutrino mass measurements using cosmic variance limited SZ power spectrum require masking the heaviest clusters and probing the small-scale SZ power spectrum up to ℓ max ≈ 10 4 . Although this is challenging, we find that SZ power spectrum can realistically be used to tightly constrain intracluster medium properties: we forecast a 2 percent determination of the X-ray mass bias by combining CMB-S4 and our mock SZ power spectrum with ℓ max = 10 3 .

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Leaf Wax Hydrogen Isotopes Reflect Storm Track Position Over Western North America

Proxy records of past climates have yielded powerful insights into regional hydroclimate dynamics. Novel insights may be gained by reconstructing spatiotemporal changes in precipitation isotopologues in past climate states that cannot be gleaned from individual site‐level studies. In this paper, we ask whether latitudinal gradients in the stable hydrogen isotopic composition of precipitation, as inferred from sedimentary leaf wax biomarkers, reflect aspects of large‐scale climate conditions in western North America (WNA). Modern coretop samples from offshore WNA show that leaf wax hydrogen isotopes broadly track the hydrogen isotopic composition of rainfall between 20 and 40N, but with an offset corresponding to a relatively constant “apparent fractionation” value. Poleward of 40N, the leaf wax signal may be complicated by fluvial transport of leaf waxes from the continental interior. Leaf wax‐inferred precipitation hydrogen isotopes show a shift to more negative values between 30 and 40N. We use modern observational data to show that this latitudinal range marks a major transition between the subtropical arid zone and the location of the midlatitude storm tracks over the northeast Pacific. Nudged water isotope‐enabled models capture the location of the arid to mesic climate transition with fidelity. This modern data set suggests that reconstructions of the latitudinal gradient of precipitation hydrogen isotopes can constrain the sensitivity of the storm tracks to shifts in climatic boundary conditions in past climate states. This approach can yield novel insights into past, present, and future hydroclimate variability in this arid region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

FY 22 Project Name: Boots versus Bytes

IAEA has increasingly leveraged remote data transfer, amplifying the effectiveness of inspectors and analysts by allowing them to view data from Headquarters rather than requiring on-site activities. We propose that there may be even more opportunities to shift the international nuclear safeguards paradigm to remote activities through the implementation of enhanced data sharing and analysis.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

An initial investigation of accuracy required for the identification of small molecules in complex samples using quantum chemical calculated NMR chemical shifts

The majority of primary and secondary metabolites in nature have yet to be identified, representing a major challenge for metabolomics studies that currently require reference libraries from analyses of authentic compounds. Using currently available analytical methods, complete chemical characterization of metabolomes is infeasible for both technical and economic reasons. For example, unambiguous identification of metabolites is limited by the availability of authentic chemical standards, which, for the majority of molecules, do not exist. Computationally predicted or calculated data are a viable solution to expand the currently limited metabolite reference libraries, if such methods are shown to be sufficiently accurate. For example, determining nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy spectra in silico has shown promise in the identification and delineation of metabolite structures. Many researchers have been taking advantage of density functional theory (DFT), a computationally inexpensive yet reputable method for the prediction of carbon and proton NMR spectra of metabolites. However, such methods are expected to have some error in predicted 13 >C and 1 H NMR spectra with respect to experimentally measured values. This leads us to the question–what accuracy is required in predicted 13 C and 1 H NMR chemical shifts for confident metabolite identification? Using the set of 11,716 small molecules found in the Human Metabolome Database (HMDB), we simulated both experimental and theoretical NMR chemical shift databases. We investigated the level of accuracy required for identification of metabolites in simulated pure and impure samples by matching predicted chemical shifts to experimental data. We found 90% or more of molecules in simulated pure samples can be successfully identified when errors of 1 H and 13 C chemical shifts in water are below 0.6 and 7.1 ppm, respectively, and below 0.5 and 4.6 ppm in chloroform solvation, respectively. In simulated complex mixtures, as the complexity of the mixture increased, greater accuracy of the calculated chemical shifts was required, as expected. However, if the number of molecules in the mixture is known, e.g., when NMR is combined with MS and sample complexity is low, the likelihood of confident molecular identification increased by 90%.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Measurements of the E-mode polarization and temperature-E-mode correlation of the CMB from SPT-3G 2018 data

We present measurements of the E -mode ( E E ) polarization power spectrum and temperature- E -mode ( T E ) cross-power spectrum of the cosmic microwave background using data collected by SPT-3G, the latest instrument installed on the South Pole Telescope. This analysis uses observations of a 1500 deg 2 region at 95, 150, and 220 GHz taken over a four-month period in 2018. We report binned values of the E E and T E power spectra over the angular multipole range 300 ≤ ℓ < 3000 , using the multifrequency data to construct six semi-independent estimates of each power spectrum and their minimum-variance combination. These measurements improve upon the previous results of SPTpol across the multipole ranges 300 ≤ ℓ ≤ 1400 for E E and 300 ≤ ℓ ≤ 1700 for T E , resulting in constraints on cosmological parameters comparable to those from other current leading ground-based experiments. We find that the SPT-3G data set is well fit by a Λ CDM cosmological model with parameter constraints consistent with those from Planck and SPTpol data. From SPT-3G data alone, we find H 0 = 68.8 ± 1.5 km s - 1 Mpc - 1 and σ 8 = 0.789 ± 0.016 , with a gravitational lensing amplitude consistent with the Λ CDM prediction ( A L = 0.98 ± 0.12 ). We combine the SPT-3G and the Planck data sets and obtain joint constraints on the Λ CDM model. The volume of the 68% confidence region in six-dimensional Λ CDM parameter space is reduced by a factor of 1.5 compared to Planck-only constraints, with no significant shifts in central values. We note that the results presented here are obtained from data collected during just half of a typical observing season with only part of the focal plane operable, and that the active detector count has since nearly doubled for observations made with SPT-3G after 2018.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Dark Energy Survey: A 2.1% measurement of the angular baryonic acoustic oscillation scale at redshift z eff = 0.85 from the final dataset

Here, we present the angular diameter distance measurement obtained with the baryonic acoustic oscillation (BAO) feature from galaxy clustering in the completed Dark Energy Survey, consisting of six years (Y6) of observations. We use the Y6 BAO galaxy sample, optimized for BAO science in the redshift range 0.6 < z <1.2, with an effective redshift at z eff = 0.85 and split into six tomographic bins. The sample has nearly 16 million galaxies over 4,273 square degrees. Our consensus measurement constrains the ratio of the angular distance to sound horizon scale to D M ⁡(z eff )/r d = 19.51 ± 0.41 (at 68.3% confidence interval), resulting from comparing the BAO position in our data to that predicted by planck Λ⁢CDM via the BAO shift parameter α =(D M /r d )/(D M /r d ) PLANCK . To achieve this, the BAO shift is measured with three different methods, angular correlation function (ACF), angular power spectrum (APS), and projected correlation function (PCF), obtaining α = 0.952 ± 0.023, 0.962 ± 0.022, and 0.955 ± 0.020, respectively, which we combine to α = 0.957 ± 0.020, including systematic errors. When compared with the Λ⁢CDM model that best fits planck data, this measurement is found to be 4.3% and 2.1⁢σ below the angular BAO scale predicted. To date, it represents the most precise angular BAO measurement at z > 0.75 from any survey and the most precise measurement at any redshift from photometric surveys. The analysis was performed blinded to the BAO position, and it is shown to be robust against analysis choices, data removal, redshift calibrations, and observational systematics.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Direct local parametrization of nuclear state densities using the back-shifted Bethe formula

Level densities are often parametrized using the back-shifted Bethe formula (BBF) for nuclei that possess experimental data for s-wave neutron resonance average spacings and a complete discrete level sequence at low excitation energies. However, these parametrizations require the additional modeling of the dependence of the spin-cutoff parameter on excitation energy. Here, in this work, we avoid the need to model the spin distribution of level densities by using the experimental data to parametrize directly the state densities, for which the BBF does not depend on the spin-cutoff parameter. This approach allows for a local parameterization of state densities that is independent of the spin-cutoff parameter. We provide these parameters in a tabulated form for applications in nuclear reaction calculations and for testing microscopic approaches to state densities.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Using Lag Compensator in Orbit Feedback

Growing demand on the beam orbit stability requires higher loop gain inside the operational bandwidth. However, increasing the gain leads to the increase of the unity gain frequency and problems with systems stability due to the additional phase shifts caused by the trims (power supplies, eddy currents in vacuum chambers, etc.) and filtering of beam position data. Conventionally employed systems have 20 dB/decade slope near the unity gain providing 90 degrees phase shift which is sufficient for stability. Increase of the slope to 40 dB/decade by adding additional pole into the signal chain increases the phase shift to 180 degrees and makes system unstable. Utilizing one or more lag compensators allows to increase the gain while keeping phase margin acceptable. The paper provides more details on the proposed solution as well as simulations of how the transients will be modified.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Results and forecasts on cosmic inflation from weak lensing

Here, we highlight the role of weak lensing measurements from current and upcoming stage-IV imaging surveys in the search for cosmic inflation, specifically in measuring the scalar spectral index n s . To do so, we combine the Dark Energy Survey 3 years of observation weak lensing and clustering data with Bicep/Keck, Planck, and Sloan Digital Sky Survey data in r⁢Λ⁢ CDM (cold dark matter) where r is the tensor-to-scalar ratio. While there is no significant improvement in constraining power, we obtain a 1⁢σ shift on n s . Additionally, we forecast a weak lensing and clustering data vector from the 10-year Legacy Survey of Space and Time by the Vera C. Rubin Observatory and show its combination with current data would improve their n s constraints by 25% in r⁢Λ⁢ CDM.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Reducing systematic bias in machine learning applications to J/ψ signal extraction in high-energy nuclear physics

Machine learning techniques are increasingly used in high-energy nuclear physics because they can exploit multivariate correlations more efficiently than conventional cut-based analyses. A central challenge is the construction of training samples that faithfully reproduce the detector response observed in data. Signal samples are usually derived from detector simulations; therefore, mismatches between simulation and data can degrade classifier performance and introduce systematic biases. This work presents two practical correction procedures, namely cumulative distribution function (CDF) mapping and a shift-and-scale transformation, to align simulated signal features with those measured in data. Their performance is demonstrated with $J$/$\psi$ yield measurements in $\sqrt{s_{nn}}$ = 200 GeV Ru+Ru and Zr+Zr collisions recorded by STAR. A set of self-consistency tests shows that these procedures substantially suppress the systematic bias associated with data-simulation discrepancies in machine-learning-based signal extraction.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Review of data-driven models for quantifying load shed by non-residential buildings in the United States

Shifting and shedding power demand in buildings can be cost-effective techniques for grids to function reliably and for end users to earn compensation. Grid operators reimburse customers in proportion to the quantity of load shed. Simple data-driven methods are used to quantify this shed, which is the difference between a measured load during the event and modeled "baseline" that would have occurred in absence of the event. These methods have evolved over the years and in many cases have been integrated with building physics, to make them a hybrid between physics based and empirical models. However, there is no comprehensive analysis that provides guidance to building operators, grid operators and researchers in selecting appropriate models based on their specific needs and available data. Here, this work aims to fill this gap by critically assessing the performance of baseline models put forward from the year 2000 through 2023. The literature reviewed includes reports generated by grid operators, reports from national laboratories and academic journal articles. The work outlines modeling features like the inputs, training period, estimation method, adjustments to fine tune the predictions and metrics to evaluate the performance. A comprehensive list of 50 models has been provided. For each model, the study explores the applicability of the model to weather sensitive buildings, variability in the building profile, timing of the event, and whether the building reduces energy consumption before an event. The work identifies the situations in which a particular model works and draws lessons based on evidence of performance. Finally, recommendations to aid in model selection are given.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Natural Language Processing for Text Based Event Extraction: Identifying Events of Interest Related to Worldwide State-Sponsored Civil Nuclear Power

Beginning in FY20, SRNL was funded by the National Nuclear Security Administration’s Office of Defense Nuclear Non-Proliferation Research and Development to develop a prototype natural language processing/natural language understating machine learning-based modeling and analysis pipeline to extract and forecast events of interest from massive open data sources. The working hypothesis within the approach is that contextual shifts in key words and phrases act as indicators of events of interest over time. Therefore, by identifying points in time where contextual shifts occur, events of interest can be extracted along with explicit and implicit connections of entities and activities. The development of the preliminary prototype pipeline proved successful, meriting further testing of the pipeline on more broad topical domains and in a worldwide data environment. Therefore, SRNL, in collaboration with the Sanghani Center for Artificial Intelligence and Data Analytics at Virginia Tech, have continued development with a test case of identifying events of interest related to worldwide state-sponsored civil nuclear power in open data sources. In the first year of this follow-on effort, the team has curated domain-specific data corpuses using an automated scheme and applied the modeling and analysis pipeline. This robust, focused, and efficient approach consists of an ensemble of analyses applied to time dependent word embedding models that are trained on the data corpuses. In this report, the team has demonstrated the capability of the existing pipeline (as development has continued in parallel) by exploring several specific case-studies centered around Rosatom’s international activities regarding the planning, construction, operation, and/or shutdown of nuclear reactors. A basic timeline events has been generated by manually cataloging known “milestone” events that have occurred at reactors in Turkey, Finland, Hungary, and Egypt and compared with the output of the modeling pipeline. In this approach, the team has characterized the lead time using the prototype pipeline, as well as the ability to capture relevant information, which proved 100% successful. A deep dive example of the Akkuyu reactor (Turkey) is presented that shows the breadth of information that can be captured using the approach. In this case study, events were extracted pertaining to the planning/construction of Akkuyu including protests from the population, information campaigns in response to the protests, forged regulatory documents and lawsuits, budgetary/shareholder information, geopolitical tensions, and the various construction milestones. This has demonstrated the pipeline’s utility as a research aid or real-time event extraction tool, where summary-level information and detailed text extractions from millions of articles or Tweets across long time periods can be generated with significantly less effort than current techniques.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Robust Machine Learning Inference from X-ray Absorption Near Edge Spectra through Featurization

X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) is a commonly employed technique for characterizing functional materials. In particular, X-ray absorption near edge spectra (XANES) encode local coordination and electronic information, and machine learning approaches to extract this information are of significant interest. To date, most ML approaches for XANES have primarily focused on using the raw spectral intensities as input, overlooking the potential benefits of incorporating spectral transformations and dimensionality reduction techniques into ML predictions. Here, in this work, we focused on systematically comparing the impact of different featurization methods on the performance of ML models for XAS analysis. We evaluated the classification and regression capabilities of these models on computed data sets and validated their performance on previously unseen experimental data sets. Our analysis revealed an intriguing discovery: the cumulative distribution function feature achieves both high prediction accuracy and exceptional transferability. This remarkably robust performance can be attributed to its tolerance to horizontal shifts in the spectra, which is crucial when validating models using experimental data. While this work exclusively focuses on XANES analysis, we anticipate that the methodology presented here will hold promise as a versatile asset to the broader spectroscopy community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A Taxonomic Classification Approach for Global Spatio-temporal Data

The World Bank, World Health Organization, and other major vendors collectively provide thousands of global time series datasets that focus on issues of the environment, public health, economics, violence, education, and national security. Sorting these data into meaningful information requires the use of data mining techniques to cluster trends into an orderly and manageable number of cases. The World SpatioTemporal Analytics and Mapping (WSTAMP) project database (wstamp.ornl.gov) was developed to spatiotemporally harmonize global vendor data (23,300+ attributes, 200+ locations, 50+ years). Within the WSTAMP analytical environment, Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) has been a highly effective data-driven approach for clustering and mapping these time series into national spatiotemporal behavior maps. Two significant properties have surfaced from this work. First, several recognizable cluster patterns have emerged and persist across a range of locations, attributes, and time frames (e.g., increasing, decreasing, rebounding, peak, oscillating). Secondly, practitioners engaging WSTAMP have noted the explanatory and anticipatory value of these patterns and articulated particular interest in detecting them within the spatiotemporal cube. This need was addressed by shifting DTW-based clustering from an open ended, data-driven implementation to a taxonomic pattern matching approach. This paper presents the method including implementation strategies for visualization and human computer interaction and applies the approach to a sample data set and concludes with next steps.

Stewart, Robert↗

Towards a self-driving trigger at the LHC: adaptive response in real time

Real-time data filtering and selection—or trigger—systems at high-throughput scientific facilities such as the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider must process extremely high-rate data streams under stringent bandwidth, latency, and storage constraints. Yet these systems are typically designed as static, hand-tuned menus of selection criteria grounded in prior knowledge and simulation. In this work, we further explore the concept of a self-driving trigger, an autonomous data-filtering framework that reallocates resources and adjusts thresholds dynamically in real-time to optimize signal efficiency, rate stability, and computational cost as instrumentation and environmental conditions evolve. We introduce a benchmark ecosystem to emulate realistic collider scenarios and demonstrate real-time optimization of a menu including canonical energy sum triggers as well as modern anomaly-detection algorithms that target non-standard event topologies using machine learning. Using simulated data streams and publicly available collision data from the Compact Muon Solenoid experiment, we demonstrate the capability to dynamically and automatically optimize trigger performance under specific cost objectives without manual retuning. Our adaptive strategy shifts trigger design from static menus with heuristic tuning to intelligent, automated, data-driven control, unlocking greater flexibility and discovery potential in future high-energy physics analyses.

Emami, Shaghayegh [Michigan U.] (ORCID:00090007589↗

Initial Conditions of Planet Formation: Time Constraints from Small Bodies and the Lifetime of Reservoirs in the Solar Protoplanetary Disk

This review explores the timescales of the initial phase of planet formation, from nebular dust (CAIs and chondrules) to planetesimal accretion and differentiation, using evidence from meteorite research. Aluminium-Mg systematics of CAIs indicate either an extended period of CAI formation (∼0.3 Ma) or an initial 26 Al heterogeneity, with evidence supporting a homogeneous 26 Al abundance in the protoplanetary disk. Thermal and aqueous alteration on the parent body can disturb the U-Pb and Al-Mg chronometers in chondrules. Focusing on relatively robust isochron data from plagioclase of pristine (types ≤3.05) chondrites indicates a shift in chondrule formation locations, moving from the inner to the outer disk over time. Ages of basaltic achondrites show that silicate differentiation on small bodies was well underway within the first few million years (Ma) of our solar system. Their age record, however, reveals inconsistencies between different chronometers, partly caused by (i) secondary disturbances due to thermal metamorphism, aqueous alteration, or impacts, (ii) the presence of xenolithic minerals, and (iii) potentially variable initial 26 Al abundances due to disturbances at the mineral scale. Nucleosynthetic isotope data indicate that parent bodies of iron and stony meteorites formed in two distinct regions within the protoplanetary disk: the inner, non-carbonaceous (NC) and the outer, carbonaceous (CC) region. Based on Hf-W chronometry it has been demonstrated that NC and CC parent bodies of magmatic iron meteorites segregated their cores within ∼1–3 Ma after CAI formation, implying that parent body accretion occurred within <1 Ma in both reservoirs. Combining accretion ages with nucleosynthetic data further reveals that, at first order, NC and CC reservoirs in the solar protoplanetary disk were established within 1 Ma and existed over several Ma with limited exchange between them. In the CR chondrite accretion region of the disk, planetary bodies formed over at least 3 Ma, while in most other regions, formation spanned at least 1 Ma, with minimal changes in nucleosynthetic isotope compositions. Aerodynamical size sorting of dust likely introduced or amplified some of these variations.

26Al distribution↗

Lattice Dynamics of Sb 2 Se 3 from Inelastic Neutron and X-Ray Scattering

The lattice dynamics of orthorhombic Sb 2 Se 3 is studied by a combination of inelastic neutron and 121 Sb nuclear inelastic scattering giving access to the total and Sb partial density of phonon states (DPS). The Se partial DPS is determined from the difference between the total and Sb partial DPS. The total DPS is determined at 39, 150, and 300 K, and an analysis of the temperature-induced mode shifts in combination with low-temperature powder diffraction data is provided. Using an earlier reported theoretical approach, the corresponding total and partial DPS of Sb 2 Se 3 are calculated by first-principles calculations. Herein, a detailed analysis of the Grüneisen parameter, element-specific and bulk Debye temperatures, and the mean force constants as derived from the experimental data and discrete Fourier transform calculations is provided. In general, the calculations underestimate the strength of the covalent Sb-Se bonds.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗