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DOE OSTI2022

Investigation of Multiple Data Streams for Gearbox Bearing Fault Prediction Through Machine-Learning Models

Operations and maintenance (O&M) cost of wind plant accounts up to 30% of total energy cost, which can be reduced through continuous monitoring and successfully detecting incipient wind turbine failures. To accomplish this, condition monitoring and predictive maintenance systems are being implemented in wind industry to support O&M decision making. A wide range of approaches for condition monitoring and fault prediction have been developed. These approaches generally use historical data of wind turbines collected by Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) system to identify patterns that lead to failure. These SCADA data show the overall condition of a wind turbine and can be leveraged to detect when the turbine's performance is degrading and to identify if a fault is developing. However, it becomes challenging to predict the failure of a specific wind turbine gearbox bearing, because the SCADA data are often not directly linked to the component. To bridge the gap, we have investigated features calculated from SCADA data using physics-based models and the gearbox design over the years. The damaged metric we used in the physics domain is frictional energy. Combining these physics domain variables with SCADA data as inputs to various machine learning models for gearbox bearing fault prediction, we have demonstrated the benefits of leveraging both physics and data domain models. It was an attempt to improve frictional-energy-based damage metric by adding data domain inputs, as we had learned that the frictional-energy-based damage metric alone is not sufficient to single out failed bearings from healthy. As condition monitoring data (either vibration or oil debris data) has become available at more and more wind plants, we would like to evaluate whether by adding the condition monitoring data can help further improve the performance of frictional-energy-based damage metric for gearbox bearing fault prediction. Both cases by modeling through various machine learning algorithms are discussed in this study along with some observations.

fault prediction↗

NASA NTRS1993

Actuator and aerodynamic modeling for high-angle-of-attack aeroservoelasticity

Accurate prediction of airframe/actuation coupling is required by the imposing demands of modern flight control systems. In particular, for agility enhancement at high angle of attack and low dynamic pressure, structural integration characteristics such as hinge moments, effective actuator stiffness, and airframe/control surface damping can have a significant effect on stability predictions. Actuator responses are customarily represented with low-order transfer functions matched to actuator test data, and control surface stiffness is often modeled as a linear spring. The inclusion of the physical properties of actuation and its installation on the airframe is therefore addressed using detailed actuator models which consider the physical, electrical, and mechanical elements of actuation. The aeroservoelastic analysis procedure is described in which the actuators are modeled as detailed high-order transfer functions and as approximate low-order transfer functions. The impacts of unsteady aerodynamic modeling on aeroservoelastic stability are also investigated by varying the order of approximation, or number of aerodynamic lag states, in the analysis. Test data from a thrust-vectoring configuration of an F/A-l8 aircraft are compared to predictions to determine the effects on accuracy as a function of modeling complexity.

Brenner, Martin J.↗

DOE OSTI2026

A ModEx Framework for Watershed Subsurface Investigation With Limited Geophysical Data Using Machine Learning and Hydrologic Modeling

Abstract Subsurface heterogeneity influences watershed hydrology strongly but remains difficult to characterize at catchment scales with sparse and costly field data. Geophysical surveys such as electromagnetic induction (EMI) provide local spatial subsurface images yet scaling them to watershed scales and converting EMI‐derived resistivity into hydraulic properties remains a challenge. We present a Model–Experiment (ModEx) framework that integrates limited EMI data with machine learning (ML) and hydrologic modeling to improve process representation and guide field investigations. Sparse EMI surveys were scaled to the catchment scale using a Random Forest model, and the resulting resistivity fields were combined with nearby borehole constraints to parameterize a hydrologic model. The EMI‐informed hydrological simulations improved predictions of streamflow sustained by subsurface flow and shallow saturation patterns. By combining EMI data and ML with hydrologic modeling, the ModEx framework guides future subsurface surveys, providing a transferable and efficient strategy for data–model integration across diverse watersheds. Plain Language Summary Mapping the underground network of soil and rock that controls water is essential for predicting floods and droughts, but seeing underground is difficult and expensive. We cannot drill everywhere, so scientists use geophysical tools to scan broad areas. There are two key challenges: these geophysical scans are often sparse across the whole watershed, and the geophysical data is hard to translate into water‐related properties. We used artificial intelligence to solve these problems. We taught a computer to find patterns linking the limited geophysical data to the land surface properties. This allowed it to fill in the gaps and create a complete, useful subsurface map for the entire watershed. This new map improves hydrologic simulations, leading to more accurate predictions of water movement in the watershed. It also helps scientists build better models with less data and generates a priority map showing where to measure next, making future investigations more efficient. Key Points Limited EMI scaled with ML improves catchment‐scale subsurface parameterization for hydrologic models The framework integrates hydrologic modeling with limited geophysical data to support subsurface investigation design ModEx framework offers a transferable data–model integration strategy that quantifies and reduces uncertainty guiding watershed studies

Chen, Hang↗

NASA NTRS1978

Application of higher harmonic blade feathering for helicopter vibration reduction

Higher harmonic blade feathering for helicopter vibration reduction is considered. Recent wind tunnel tests confirmed the effectiveness of higher harmonic control in reducing articulated rotor vibratory hub loads. Several predictive analyses developed in support of the NASA program were shown to be capable of calculating single harmonic control inputs required to minimize a single 4P hub response. In addition, a multiple-input, multiple-output harmonic control predictive analysis was developed. All techniques developed thus far obtain a solution by extracting empirical transfer functions from sampled data. Algorithm data sampling and processing requirements are minimal to encourage adaptive control system application of such techniques in a flight environment.

Powers, R. W.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Data-Driven Preemptive Voltage Monitoring and Control Using Probabilistic Voltage Sensitivities

Increased penetration levels of distributed variable renewable generation can cause random voltage fluctuations and violations at multiple nodes. Traditional methods of voltage control typically involve reactionary responses of capacitor banks, tap changers, and recently even smart inverters. But because of the lack of foresight in voltage violations, these controls are ineffective to completely mitigate the issue. Therefore, new methods of predicting voltage violations subject to random power injection changes in the distribution network are needed, which can be used to guide optimal and dynamic methods of voltage control. This work lays the foundation for such preemptive voltage monitoring and control by proposing an analytical and sensor data-driven voltage sensitivity analysis method. Driven by stochastic data and forecasts, the method can be used to develop probabilistic voltage sensitivities and consequently to predict system nodes with high likelihood of voltage limit violations. The effectiveness of this method is tested on IEEE 69-node distribution system integrated with distributed solar. The results demonstrate the proposed method's ability to successfully predict nodes with high probability of voltage violations for a specific time-series simulation. The results also demonstrate the ability to guide timely power injection control actions to mitigate future voltage violations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS1993

Actuator and aerodynamic modeling for high-angle-of-attack aeroservoelasticity

Accurate prediction of airframe/actuation coupling is required by the imposing demands of modern flight control systems. In particular, for agility enhancement at high angle of attack and low dynamic pressure, structural integration characteristics such as hinge moments, effective actuator stiffness, and airframe/control surface damping can have a significant effect on stability predictions. Actuator responses are customarily represented with low-order transfer functions matched to actuator test data, and control surface stiffness is often modeled as a linear spring. The inclusion of the physical properties of actuation and its installation on the airframe is therefore addressed in this paper using detailed actuator models which consider the physical, electrical, and mechanical elements of actuation. The aeroservoelastic analysis procedure is described in which the actuators are modeled as detailed high-order transfer functions and as approximate low-order transfer functions. The impacts of unsteady aerodynamic modeling on aeroservoelastic stability are also investigated in this paper by varying the order of approximation, or number of aerodynamic lag states, in the analysis. Test data from a thrust-vectoring configuration of an F/A-18 aircraft are compared to predictions to determine the effects on accuracy as a function of modeling complexity.

Brenner, Martin J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model form and sensitivity analysis of CALPHAD-based nucleation models in b-stabilized Ti alloys

Accurate prediction of α-phase nucleation and growth in β-stabilized titanium alloys is crucial for designing heat treatments to optimize mechanical properties in additively manufactured lightweight components. Ideally, predictions of nucleation and growth would incorporate both top-down observations of past experimental heat treatments and bottom-up modeling of phase transformations; however, the appropriate method of combining these information sources is not self-evident. Combining top-down and bottom-up information requires a unified form of model that can connect between spatiotemporal scales, as well as sets of fitting parameters that can be identified by each data source. The selection of which parameters to fit to which data source can be made based on expert opinion, or by performing a sensitivity analysis. In solid-solid nucleation, direct observation of the nucleation and growth process is challenging. Most data on the heat treatment-controlled phase transformations are not in-situ. To predict the process and outcome of the nucleation, growth and coarsening of precipitates, theoretical models of the nucleation pathway are used to bridge the gap. Many sources of uncertainty affect the modeling of this nucleation process. It can be influenced by small variations in the thermomechanical processing history, chemical composition, and initial microstructure. If molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are used to determine thermodynamic quantities and inform CALPHAD modeling, additional uncertainty can be introduced and accounted for using Bayesian methods. Top-down uncertainties require additional steps to quantify. The influence of nucleation model form on the sensitivity of predictions to input parameters and physical conditions is the focus of this study. Classical nucleation theory (CNT) allows modeling to formulate the nucleation as homogeneous or, more commonly, heterogeneous. Non-classical nucleation models are also increasingly explored as a means of reconciling top-down and bottom-up data. In this study, the sensitivity of the intragranular nucleation of α in a β-annealed, slow-cooled aging (BASCA) heat treatment of β-stabilized Ti5553 alloy is explored using CNT and both heterogeneous and homogeneous assumptions. The Kampmann-Wagner Numerical model of precipitate nucleation and growth is employed. Using open-source tools (pyCalphad and thermodynamic modeling of TiMo as a surrogate system, a sensitivity analysis is performed to measure variations in key parameters, including chemical driving force, interfacial energy, and diffusivity, as they relate to predictions of precipitate number density. The inclusion of top-down and bottom-up data in selection of nucleation model form is discussed.

Rodriguez Negron, A. M.↗

NASA NTRS2008

Rotor Performance at High Advance Ratio: Theory versus Test

Five analytical tools have been used to study rotor performance at high advance ratio. One is representative of autogyro rotor theory in 1934 and four are representative of helicopter rotor theory in 2008. The five theories are measured against three sets of well documented, full-scale, isolated rotor performance experiments. The major finding of this study is that the decades spent by many rotorcraft theoreticians to improve prediction of basic rotor aerodynamic performance has paid off. This payoff, illustrated by comparing the CAMRAD II comprehensive code and Wheatley & Bailey theory to H-34 test data, shows that rational rotor lift to drag ratios are now predictable. The 1934 theory predicted L/D ratios as high as 15. CAMRAD II predictions compared well with H-34 test data having L/D ratios more on the order of 7 to 9. However, the detailed examination of the selected codes compared to H-34 test data indicates that not one of the codes can predict to engineering accuracy above an advance ratio of 0.62 the control positions and shaft angle of attack required for a given lift. There is no full-scale rotor performance data available for advance ratios above 1.0 and extrapolation of currently available data to advance ratios on the order of 2.0 is unreasonable despite the needs of future rotorcraft. Therefore, it is recommended that an overly strong full-scale rotor blade set be obtained and tested in a suitable wind tunnel to at least an advance ratio of 2.5. A tail rotor from a Sikorsky CH-53 or other large single rotor helicopter should be adequate for this exploratory experiment.

Harris, Franklin D.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting (TAMDAR) Sensor Validation and Verification on National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Lockheed WP-3D Aircraft

As part of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's Aviation Safety and Security Program, the Tropospheric Airborne Meteorological Data Reporting project (TAMDAR) developed a low-cost sensor for aircraft flying in the lower troposphere. This activity was a joint effort with support from Federal Aviation Administration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and industry. This paper reports the TAMDAR sensor performance validation and verification, as flown on board NOAA Lockheed WP-3D aircraft. These flight tests were conducted to assess the performance of the TAMDAR sensor for measurements of temperature, relative humidity, and wind parameters. The ultimate goal was to develop a small low-cost sensor, collect useful meteorological data, downlink the data in near real time, and use the data to improve weather forecasts. The envisioned system will initially be used on regional and package carrier aircraft. The ultimate users of the data are National Centers for Environmental Prediction forecast modelers. Other users include air traffic controllers, flight service stations, and airline weather centers. NASA worked with an industry partner to develop the sensor. Prototype sensors were subjected to numerous tests in ground and flight facilities. As a result of these earlier tests, many design improvements were made to the sensor. The results of tests on a final version of the sensor are the subject of this report. The sensor is capable of measuring temperature, relative humidity, pressure, and icing. It can compute pressure altitude, indicated air speed, true air speed, ice presence, wind speed and direction, and eddy dissipation rate. Summary results from the flight test are presented along with corroborative data from aircraft instruments.

Tsoucalas, George↗

DOE OSTI2023

Benchmarking magnetised three-wave coupling for laser backscattering: analytic solutions and kinetic simulations

Understanding magnetised laser–plasma interactions is important for controlling magneto-inertial fusion experiments and developing magnetically assisted radiation and particle sources. For nanosecond pulses at non-relativistic intensities, interactions are dominated by coherent three-wave interactions, whose nonlinear coupling coefficients became known only recently when waves propagate at oblique angles with the magnetic field. In this paper, backscattering coupling coefficients predicted by warm-fluid theory are benchmarked using particle-in-cell simulations in one spatial dimension, and excellent agreements are found for a wide range of plasma temperatures, magnetic field strengths and laser propagation angles, when the interactions are mediated by electron-dominant hybrid waves. Systematic comparisons between theory and simulations are made possible by a rigorous protocol. On the theory side, the initial boundary value problem of linearised three-wave equations is solved, and the transient-time solutions allow the effects of growth and damping to be distinguished. On the simulation side, parameters are carefully chosen and calibration runs are performed to ensure that comparisons are well controlled. Fitting simulation data to analytical solutions yields numerical growth rates that match theory predictions within error bars. Although warm-fluid theory is found to be valid for a wide parameter range, genuine kinetic effects have also been observed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2016

Numerical Simulation of a High-Lift Configuration Embedded with High Momentum Fluidic Actuators

Numerical simulations have been performed for a vertical tail configuration with deflected rudder. The suction surface of the main element of this configuration, just upstream of the hinge line, is embedded with an array of 32 fluidic actuators that produce oscillating sweeping jets. Such oscillating jets have been found to be very effective for flow control applications in the past. In the current paper, a high-fidelity computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code known as the PowerFLOW R code is used to simulate the entire flow field associated with this configuration, including the flow inside the actuators. A fully compressible version of the PowerFLOW R code valid for high speed flows is used for the present simulations to accurately represent the transonic flow regimes encountered in the flow field due to the actuators operating at higher mass flow (momentum) rates required to mitigate reverse flow regions on a highly-deflected rudder surface. The computed results for the surface pressure and integrated forces compare favorably with measured data. In addition, numerical solutions predict the correct trends in forces with active flow control compared to the no control case. The effect of varying the rudder deflection angle on integrated forces and surface pressures is also presented.

Vatsa, Veer N.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Higher harmonic control analysis for vibration reduction of helicopter rotor systems

An advanced higher harmonic control (HHC) analysis has been developed and applied to investigate its effect on vibration reduction levels, blade and control system fatigue loads, rotor performance, and power requirements of servo-actuators. The analysis is based on a finite element method in space and time. A nonlinear time domain unsteady aerodynamic model, based on the indicial response formulation, is used to calculate the airloads. The rotor induced inflow is computed using a free wake model. The vehicle trim controls and blade steady responses are solved as one coupled solution using a modified Newton method. A linear frequency-domain quasi-steady transfer matrix is used to relate the harmonics of the vibratory hub loads to the harmonics of the HHC inputs. Optimal HHC is calculated from the minimization of the vibratory hub loads expressed in term of a quadratic performance index. Predicted vibratory hub shears are correlated with wind tunnel data. The fixed-gain HHC controller suppresses completely the vibratory hub shears for most of steady or quasi-steady flight conditions. HHC actuator amplitudes and power increase significantly at high forward speeds (above 100 knots). Due to the applied HHC, the blade torsional stresses and control loads are increased substantially. For flight conditions where the blades are stalled considerably, the HHC input-output model is quite nonlinear. For such cases, the adaptive-gain controller is effective in suppressing vibratory hub loads, even though HHC may actually increase stall areas on the rotor disk. The fixed-gain controller performs poorly for such flight conditions. Comparison study of different rotor systems indicates that a soft-inplane hingeless rotor requires less actuator power at high speeds (above 130 knots) than an articulated rotor, and a stiff-inplane hingeless rotor generally requires more actuator power than an articulated or a soft-inplane hingeless rotor. Parametric studies for a hingeless rotor operating in a transition flight regime and for an articulated rotor operating at the level-flight boundary (high speed and high thrust conditions) indicate that blade parameters including flap, lag, torsion stiffness distributions, linear pretwist, chordwise offset of center-of-mass from elastic axis and chordwise offset of elastic axis from aerodynamic center can be selected to minimize the actuator power requirements for HHC.

Nguyen, Khanh Q.↗

NASA NTRS1998

Euler Technology Assessment - SPLITFLOW Code Applications for Stability and Control Analysis on an Advanced Fighter Model Employing Innovative Control Concepts

This report documents results from the NASA-Langley sponsored Euler Technology Assessment Study conducted by Lockheed-Martin Tactical Aircraft Systems (LMTAS). The purpose of the study was to evaluate the ability of the SPLITFLOW code using viscous and inviscid flow models to predict aerodynamic stability and control of an advanced fighter model. The inviscid flow model was found to perform well at incidence angles below approximately 15 deg, but not as well at higher angles of attack. The results using a turbulent, viscous flow model matched the trends of the wind tunnel data, but did not show significant improvement over the Euler solutions. Overall, the predictions were found to be useful for stability and control design purposes.

Jordan, Keith J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

International Space Station Acoustics – A Status Report

It is important to control acoustic noise aboard the International Space Station (ISS) to provide a satisfactory environment for voice communications, alarm audibility, and restful sleep, and to minimize the risk for hearing loss. Acoustic monitoring is an important part of the noise control process on ISS, providing critical data for trend analysis, noise exposure analysis, validation of acoustic analyses and predictions, and to provide strong evidence for ensuring crew health and safety, thus allowing Flight Certification. And since the primary noise sources on ISS include the environmental control and life support system’s air revitalization system (fans and airflow) and active thermal control system (pumps and water flow), acoustic monitoring will indicate changes in hardware noise emissions that may indicate system degradation or performance issues. This paper provides the current acoustic levels in the ISS modules and sleep stations, and is an update to the status presented in 2018. Since this last status report, noise levels have remained consistent, but issues with stalled fan noise and unexplained low frequency spectral peaks have caused some exceedances to requirements. Noise levels in the Russian Segment have either remained consistent or have been reduced slightly, except for the new Multipurpose Laboratory Module, which has some significant noise exceedances.

Christopher S Allen↗

NASA NTRS2019

Overview and Evaluation of a Computational Bone Physiology Modeling Toolchain and Its Application to Testing of Exercise Countermeasures

Prolonged microgravity exposure disrupts natural bone remodeling processes and can lead to a significant loss of bone strength, increasing injury risk during missions and placing astronauts at a greater risk of bone fracture later in life. Resistance-based exercise during missions is used to combat bone loss, but current exercise countermeasures do not completely mitigate the effects of microgravity. To address this concern, we present work to develop a personalizable, site-specific computational modeling toolchain of bone remodeling dynamics to understand and estimate changes in volumetric bone mineral density (BMD) in response to microgravity-induced bone unloading and in-flight exercise. The toolchain is evaluated against data collected from subjects in a 70-day bedrest study and is found to provide insight into the amount of exercise stimulus needed to minimize bone loss, quantitatively predicting post-study volumetric BMD of control subjects who did not perform exercise, and qualitatively predicting the effects of exercise. Results suggest that, with additional data, the toolchain could be improved to aid in developing customized in-flight exercise regimens and predict exercise effectiveness.

Schepelmann, Alexander↗

NASA NTRS2005

Impact of CAMEX-4 Data Sets for Hurricane Forecasts using a Global Model

This study explores the impact on hurricane data assimilation and forecasts from the use of dropsondes and remote-sensed moisture profiles from the airborne Lidar Atmospheric Sensing Experiment (LASE) system. We show that the use of these additional data sets, above those from the conventional world weather watch, has a positive impact on hurricane predictions. The forecast tracks and intensity from the experiments show a marked improvement compared to the control experiment where such data sets were excluded. A study of the moisture budget in these hurricanes showed enhanced evaporation and precipitation over the storm area. This resulted in these data sets making a large impact on the estimate of mass convergence and moisture fluxes, which were much smaller in the control runs. Overall this study points to the importance of high vertical resolution humidity data sets for improved model results. We note that the forecast impact from the moisture profiling data sets for some of the storms is even larger than the impact from the use of dropwindsonde based winds.

Kamineni, Rupa↗

NASA NTRS1992

Artificial neural network implementation of a near-ideal error prediction controller

A theory has been developed at the University of Virginia which explains the effects of including an ideal predictor in the forward loop of a linear error-sampled system. It has been shown that the presence of this ideal predictor tends to stabilize the class of systems considered. A prediction controller is merely a system which anticipates a signal or part of a signal before it actually occurs. It is understood that an exact prediction controller is physically unrealizable. However, in systems where the input tends to be repetitive or limited, (i.e., not random) near ideal prediction is possible. In order for the controller to act as a stability compensator, the predictor must be designed in a way that allows it to learn the expected error response of the system. In this way, an unstable system will become stable by including the predicted error in the system transfer function. Previous and current prediction controller include pattern recognition developments and fast-time simulation which are applicable to the analysis of linear sampled data type systems. The use of pattern recognition techniques, along with a template matching scheme, has been proposed as one realizable type of near-ideal prediction. Since many, if not most, systems are repeatedly subjected to similar inputs, it was proposed that an adaptive mechanism be used to 'learn' the correct predicted error response. Once the system has learned the response of all the expected inputs, it is necessary only to recognize the type of input with a template matching mechanism and then to use the correct predicted error to drive the system. Suggested here is an alternate approach to the realization of a near-ideal error prediction controller, one designed using Neural Networks. Neural Networks are good at recognizing patterns such as system responses, and the back-propagation architecture makes use of a template matching scheme. In using this type of error prediction, it is assumed that the system error responses be known for a particular input and modeled plant. These responses are used in the error prediction controller. An analysis was done on the general dynamic behavior that results from including a digital error predictor in a control loop and these were compared to those including the near-ideal Neural Network error predictor. This analysis was done for a second and third order system.

Mcvey, Eugene S.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Regional surrogates for predictive control of digital twins

Digital twins of complex systems must involve a model that is fast, generalizable, and usable for real-time control. For example, high-fidelity nonlinear multiphysics simulations can capture laser-material interactions, but are too slow for optimization or model predictive control (MPC). Reduced-order models, used to accelerate such computation, frequently fail to generalize to unseen inputs or control states. We show theoretically that this failure is intrinsic, i.e., that a learned model is non-unique outside the sampled subspace when its low-rank structure arises from limited excitation and clustered eigenvalues, rather than from a user-imposed truncation alone. Motivated by this result, we propose a control-ready regional surrogate-construction framework for both autonomous and nonautonomous dynamics; it employs Koopman lifting to represent nonlinearities, while preserving spatial locality. We illustrate our approach by constructing a control-ready surrogate for the digital twin of a thermal component of additive-manufacturing process. Our surrogate, localized in space through a von Neumann stencil, is learned from noisy high-fidelity simulations that emulate thermal-camera images collected during the manufacturing. It is linear in thermo-physically augmented states so that MPC reduces to a convex quadratic program. The surrogate requires no online correction, generalizes to unseen scan paths and power profiles of the laser, and is more than three orders of magnitude faster than a finite-difference solver. Furthermore, when the MPC sequence computed on the digital twin is applied to this solver, closed-loop temperature regulation is recovered, showing that the surrogate preserves control-relevant input-output behavior.

Data-driven model↗