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Wind Energy Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2022

Four decades ago, construction was just beginning on experimental turbines at the National Wind Technology Center (NWTC). Today, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) facility is the centerpiece of the laboratory's Flatirons Campus, a world-class hub for renewable energy research. The nation's shift to 100% clean electricity by 2035 will require a mix of renewable energy sources and strategies - and together, wind and solar energy could account for 60% to 80% of that clean energy resource. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2022, NREL scientists, engineers, and analysts contributed to these visionary goals through their wind energy research. As wind innovations push into new areas, NREL continues to play a vital role in advancing technology and addressing deployment barriers in pursuit of more efficient, reliable, and predictable wind energy systems. FY 2022 wind research and development explored the potential for dramatic growth in land-based systems, the launch of the nation's first commercial-scale offshore installations, and transmission infrastructure buildout. Land-based wind energy is one of the most cost-effective electricity supply options - but utility-scale deployment will require up to 10 times the current number of turbines. An NREL plan addressed this need to accelerate U.S. wind technology rollout at distributed and utility scales. Another project conducted by NREL and the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) helps position the nation's first major offshore wind corridor for success. The WETO-funded Atlantic Offshore Wind Transmission Study is evaluating options for balancing electricity supply and demand, while supporting resilience of the grid and marine industries. WETO, NREL, and other partners are working to enable the enormous supply chain and workforce changes the U.S. wind energy industry will need to meet net-zero-carbon-emissions targets. As part of a seminal series of DOE-funded supply chain studies, NREL analysts reported on the trade-offs involved in manufacturing large volumes of wind technologies, while addressing cost, workforce, and logistics issues. All of this research is supported by NREL's outstanding research teams, tools, data, and facilities. A WETO-funded international wind energy field campaign, the American WAKE experimeNt (AWAKEN), has brought together experts from NREL, PNNL, and Sandia National Laboratories to create the world's most comprehensive set of high-resolution data on wind energy atmospheric phenomenon. This study could lead to more accurate predictions of losses from turbine-to-turbine wake interactions, eventually helping wind plants capture more energy and operators save millions of dollars. In addition, NREL researchers developed testing, modeling, and analysis tools to improve the security of power grids by identifying wind power plant dynamic stability problems. A new Stochastic Soaring Raptor Simulator (SSRS) protects golden eagles from turbine encounters by predicting flight paths. This report provides more detail on these top achievements and other accomplishments made by NREL and its partners during FY 2022 (between October 1, 2021, and September 30, 2022).

accomplishments↗

Development of a Metocean Reference Site near the Massachusetts and Rhode Island Wind Energy Areas

This project developed the first long-term U.S.-based offshore MetOcean Reference Site (MORS-1) by capitalizing on a unique combination of one of the few existing publicly available offshore wind energy metocean observational campaigns in the United States and the only existing research-grade offshore fixed tower. Data collected at MORS-1 has facilitated improved wind resource assessments, improved short-term power production estimates, and reduced costs for sensor validation and calibration efforts, which translate into reduced overall wind energy project risk and cost for developers. Now operational, MORS-1 serves the needs of both industry and researchers using a nonprofit, joint industry-academic partnership model. Led by the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, the MORS-1 development effort focused on creating both a recognized organizational structure that will ensure support of the MORS-1 by the wider wind energy industry and research community, and a highly validated data collection and sensor validation facility that will serve as the premier location for cost- and uncertainty-reducing resource characterization and research efforts.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Enabling Floating Offshore VAWT Design by Coupling OWENS and OpenFAST

Vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) have a long history, with a wide variety of turbine archetypes that have been designed and tested since the 1970s. While few utility-scale VAWTs currently exist, the placement of the generator near the turbine base could make VAWTs advantageous over tradition horizontal-axis wind turbines for floating offshore wind applications via reduced platform costs and improved scaling potential. However, there are currently few numerical design and analysis tools available for VAWTs. One existing engineering toolset for aero-hydro-servo-elastic simulation of VAWTs is the Offshore Wind ENergy Simulator (OWENS), but its current modeling capability for floating systems is non-standard and not ideal. This article describes how OWENS has been coupled to several OpenFAST modules to update and improve modeling of floating offshore VAWTs and discusses the verification of these new capabilities and features. The results of the coupled OWENS verification test agree well with a parallel OpenFAST simulation, validating the new modeling and simulation capabilities in OWENS for floating VAWT applications. These developments will enable the design and optimization of floating offshore VAWTs in the future.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind

This analysis used high resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios varied offshore wind penetrations and explored the differences of integrating offshore wind in the current grid and a potential future grid. This allowed us to determine how changes to the rest of the system and increasing penetrations of offshore wind affected our findings. We identified a number of key findings from the analysis, including that 2.6 GW of nameplate capacity offshore wind could be integrated into the Oregon power system with minimal curtailment due to transmission congestion or other factors. The range of system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$$65/MWh and $\$$85/MWh across the various scenarios considered. We also examined the influence offshore wind had on the trans-Cascade power flow, where we determined a strong correlation between offshore wind generation and reduction in flow across the Cascades. Finally, we also determined that offshore wind could serve between 84 - 93% of Coastal Oregon loads depending on the scenario.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Deployment Implications of Reaching the DOE Floating Offshore Wind Shot Goal: A Summary of Initial Results and Methods [Slides]

The Floating Offshore Wind Shot is an initiative to help usher in a clean energy future by driving U.S. leadership in floating offshore wind design, development, and manufacturing. Here, we document impact of attaining the Shot cost goal of $45/megawatt-hour by 2035, a reduction of 70% from today's cost levels. We find deployment of 90-120 gigawatt of floating offshore wind by 2050.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

The Wind Turbine Rotors of the Future: A Research Agenda from the Big Adaptive Rotor Project

This white paper outlines a roadmap to inform future research efforts around the wind turbine rotors of the future. The document is authored by researchers that have been working on the Big Adaptive Rotor (BAR) and related initiatives at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories. The Wind Energy Technologies Office of the U.S. Department of Energy has been funding BAR since 2018. The learnings from BAR have been documented in dozens of publications. This new paper identifies unresolved critical challenges in wind turbine rotor technology and structures them in four large topic areas: 1. Predictive and validated numerical tools. 2. Design methods and standards. 3. Improvements in manufacturing. 4. Technological innovations. Although wind turbines have not changed in their core architecture, with the market almost entirely dominated by three-bladed upwind rotors, a vast amount of research has allowed to introduce technological innovations resulting in a reduction in levelized cost of energy that made wind competitive with all traditional sources of electricity. Focusing on the rotor, blades will keep following the trend of mass and stiffness reduction, will adopt segmentation, and will keep growing in length, both land-based and offshore. To support this continuous innovation, this white paper argues that research efforts in rotor technology at the national labs are best directed to the first three topic areas and to low technology-readiness-levels (1-3) innovations, leaving the task of implementing higher-TRL (4-9) technological innovations to industry stakeholders. This research roadmap is also well aligned with the upcoming roadmap defined during the International Energy Agency 109th Topical Expert Meeting on the Grand Challenges of Wind Energy.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Design Guidelines for Deployable Wind Turbines for Military Operational Energy Applications

This document aims to provide guidance on the design and operation of deployable wind systems that provide maximum value to missions in defense and disaster relief. Common characteristics of these missions are shorter planning and execution time horizons and a global scope of potential locations. Compared to conventional wind turbine applications, defense and disaster response applications place a premium on rapid shipping and installation, short-duration operation (days to months), and quick teardown upon mission completion. Furthermore, defense and disaster response applications are less concerned with cost of energy than conventional wind turbine applications. These factors impart design drivers that depart from the features found in conventional distributed wind turbines, thus necessitating unique design guidance. The supporting information for this guidance comes from available relevant references, technical analyses, and input from industry and military stakeholders. This document is not intended to be a comprehensive, prescriptive design specification. This document is intended to serve as a written record of an ongoing discussion of stakeholders about the best currently available design guidance for deployable wind turbines to help facilitate the effective development and acquisition of technology solutions to support mission success. The document is generally organized to provide high-level, focused guidance in the main body, with more extensive supporting details available in the referenced appendices. Section 2 begins with a brief qualitative description of the design guidelines being considered for the deployable wind turbines. Section 3 provides an overview of the characteristics of the mobile power systems commonly used in U.S. military missions. Section 4 covers current military and industry standards and specifications that are relevant to a deployable wind turbine design. Section 5 presents the deployable turbine design guidelines for the application cases.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Implication of production tax credit on economic dispatch for electricity merchants with storage and wind farms

The production tax credit (PTC) promotes wind energy development, reduces power generation costs, and can affect merchants’ joint economic dispatch, particularly for electricity merchants with both energy storage and wind farms. Two common PTC policies are studied – in the first policy, a wind farm receives PTC by selling wind generation to the market and its storage can be used to store energy from the wind generation and energy purchased from the grid but the energy released from the storage cannot receive PTC; in the second policy, the energy released from the storage can also qualify for PTC but purchasing energy from the grid is not allowed. We then employ dynamic programming to study merchants' optimal decision-making while considering PTC and the physical characteristics of storage systems. We analytically show that the state of charge (SOC) range can be segmented into different regions by SOC reference points under two PTC policies. The merchant's optimal action can be conveniently and uniquely determined based on the region within which the current SOC falls. Moreover, this study illustrates that PTC could substantially alter the optimal scheduling policy structures by affecting reference points and their relationships. The results showed that the frequencies for charging and discharging storage decisions decreased with an increase in PTC subsidy. Last, we confirm that, although the first policy allows merchants to buy electricity from the market, the second policy can bring more profits when the PTC is large at the current PTC rates. Furthermore, the findings can provide multistage decision-making guidance to electricity merchants in the wholesale power market.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluating the Grid Impact of Oregon Offshore Wind [Slides]

This analysis used high-resolution offshore wind data and a detailed production cost model (PCM) of the Western Interconnection to explore the value and operational impact of integrating offshore wind along Oregon's coastline. Leveraging local technical stakeholder expertise and input, we determined a set of scenarios to explore. These scenarios vary both offshore wind capacities and the Western Interconnection generation and transmission infrastructure. From the scenario modeling and analysis, we identified the following key findings. In addition, we simulated a subset of the scenarios for a range of historical weather years (2007-2013), to understand the robustness of our findings to different weather conditions. Trans-coastal transmission constraints and congestion are the key drivers to the curtailment of Oregon offshore wind. Once power can be delivered into the Willamette Valley, there are few system constraints that lead to a significant curtailment of offshore wind off the coast of Oregon. Approximately 2.6 GW of installed offshore wind capacity can be integrated into Oregon's power system without major upgrades to trans-coastal transmission while avoiding significant curtailment. The system value provided by offshore wind ranges between $\$65$ /MWh and $\$85$ /MWh across the various scenarios considered. Offshore wind heavily influences the flow of the cross Cascade transmission. Across all scenarios, we found a robust relationship of approximately 500-550 MW decrease in the hourly flow of the cross Cascade transmission for every 1,000 MW of hourly offshore wind generation. However, we also found there was not a strong relationship between the highest cross-Cascade transmission flow hours and high offshore wind generation, limiting the extent to which offshore wind can be considered a non-wires alternative to cross cascade transmission. Depending on the meteorological year, 880-1,580 MW and 1,650-3,100 MW can be counted on to serve coastal loads with 2.6 GW and 5 GW of offshore wind capacity, respectively. Offshore wind allows for more optimal daily and hourly scheduling of hydropower, while still complying with various technical and regulatory constraints on the water resource. Oregon offshore wind has the potential to contribute to the evening net load peak in California (i.e., mitigate duck curve challenges), however transmission congestion between California and Oregon limits this contribution. Co-located storage at the point of interconnection for offshore wind reduces curtailment when trans-coastal transmission is not upgraded, providing a non-wires alternative to increase offshore wind capacity beyond 2.6 GW.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Economic competitiveness of pultruded fiber composites for wind turbine applications

Pultrusion manufacturing of fiber reinforced polymers has been shown to yield some of the highest mechanical properties for unidirectional composites, having a high degree of fiber alignment with consistent performance. Pultrusions offer a low-cost manufacturing approach for producing unidirectional composites with a constant cross-section and are used in many applications, including spar caps of wind turbine blades. However, as an intermediate processing step for wind blades, the additional cost of manufacturing pultrusions must be accompanied by sufficient increases in mechanical performance and system benefits. Wind turbine blades are manufactured using vacuum-assisted resin transfer molding with infused unidirectional fiberglass or carbon pultrusions for the spar cap. Infused fiberglass composites are among the most cost-effective structural materials available and replacing this material in the cost-driven wind industry has proven challenging, where infused fiberglass spar caps are still the predominant material system in use. To evaluate alternative material systems in a pultruded composite form, it is necessary to understand the costs for this additional manufacturing step which are shown to add 33%–55% on top of the material costs. A pultrusion cost model has been developed and used to quantify cost sensitivities to various processing parameters. The mechanical performance for pultruded composites is improved versus resin-infusion manufacturing with a 17% increase in design strength at a constant fiber volume fraction, but also enables higher achievable fiber volume fractions. The cost-specific mechanical performance is compared as a function of processing parameters for pultruded composites to identify the opportunities for alternative material and manufacturing approaches for wind turbine spar caps. Finally, four materials are compared in a representative wind turbine blade model to assess the performance of pultruded carbon fiber systems and pultruded fiberglass relative to infused fiberglass, where the pultruded systems produce lower weight blades with various cost distinctions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Integrating Hydrogen Production and Electricity Markets: Analytical Insights from California

This report compares the cost of different pathways for producing hydrogen in California. In addition to capturing the current cost of electrolyzers and other equipment, the pathways apply current retail electricity tariff options offered by utilities Southern California Edison (SCE), Pacific Gas & Electric Company (PG&E), and San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E). The analysis also tests the cost of combining hydrogen production with utility-scale wind or solar generation in California. Scenarios examine current costs as well as projections for 2030. The cost benchmark - a relatively low electrolytic hydrogen production cost - is based on the wholesale price of electricity used by a theoretical hydrogen production plant connected directly to the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) transmission system. California law currently prohibits this approach in CAISO, but it is permissible in other organized wholesale electricity markets. The cost for producing hydrogen under 2019 conditions in this theoretical case was approximately $3/kg. Different scenarios are used to examine current costs, e.g., 2019, as well as projections for 2030.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Renewable-battery hybrid power plants in congested electricity markets: Implications for plant configuration

Examining coupled renewable-battery power plants (“hybrids”) in congested areas provides insights into a future of increased wind and solar penetration. Our study focuses on two types of congested regions, Variable Renewable Energy (VRE)-rich Areas and Load Centers, and explores likely plant configuration choices for developers and transmission network planners. Here, this paper examines how hybrid value, comprising energy and capacity value, varies by plant configuration and congested region type considering factors such as storage duration, battery degradation, and ability to charge from the grid. We select plant locations from across the seven main U.S. independent system operators (ISOs). Hybrid value for each configuration is computed based on profit-maximizing plant operation given perfect foresight, according to observed wholesale power market real time prices from 2018 to 2021. In VRE-rich Areas, the median increase in energy value from extending storage duration from one to 4h is 29.4% for solar and 26.8% for wind, assuming low battery degradation costs and storage sized to 100% of the plant's nameplate generation capacity. Increasing storage duration beyond 4h does not substantially increase its value from energy markets, even in VRE-rich Areas. We find that solar hybrids reach a 90% capacity credit with 4h of storage, while wind hybrids require 8h of storage, based on the capacity factor of each hybrid during the top 100 net load hours.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Measurement of Wind Loading on Heliostats at the Crescent Dunes Power Plant: An Overview

The cost of solar collectors constitutes almost one third of the total cost of a CSP plant. One of the ongoing challenges in the design of these collectors is wind loading on mirrors, support structures, and drives. A particular challenge is dynamic wind loading, caused by the turbulent wind flow. To date, the design of solar collector structures has relied on wind tunnel experiments and numerical simulations that do not entirely capture the dynamic effects observed at scale. The CSP industry has shown increased interest in validating the idealized assumptions with measurements obtained in operational settings to improve wind load assumptions and increase reliability and cost-efficiency of the collector design. Further, performance models need realistic assumptions about wind loading and its impact on optical performance. In a parabolic trough field campaign, NREL successfully collected a wealth of long-term, high-resolution wind and loads data [2], that are publicly available and that can be used for the above-mentioned purposes. Heliostats are impacted differently by wind than parabolic troughs, due to their different shape, size, and field layout. To study the impact of wind and turbulence on heliostats, we initiated another field campaign in an operational power- tower plant, Crescent Dunes, in Nevada, USA. In this work, we present an overview of the measurements, first results, and potential implications of wind driven loads on Heliostats.

concentrated solar power↗

Hybrid power plant design for low-carbon hydrogen in the United States

In this study, we provide a nationwide techno-economic analysis of clean hydrogen production powered by a hybrid renewable energy plant for over 50,000 locations in the United States. We leverage the open-source Hybrid Optimization Performance Platform (HOPP) tool to simulate the hourly performance of an off-grid wind-solar plant integrated with a 1-GW polymer exchange membrane electrolyzer system. The levelized cost of hydrogen is calculated for varying technology costs, and tax credits to explore cost sensitivities independent of plant design, performance, and site selection. Our findings suggest that strategies for cost reduction include selecting sites with abundant wind resources, complementary wind and solar resources, and optimizing the sizing of wind and solar assets to maximize the hybrid plant capacity factor. These strategies are linked to increased hydrogen production and reduced electrolyzer stack replacements, thereby lowering the overall cost of hydrogen.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Carbon‐Neutral Pathways for the United States

Abstract The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C points to the need for carbon neutrality by mid‐century. Achieving this in the United States in only 30 years will be challenging, and practical pathways detailing the technologies, infrastructure, costs, and tradeoffs involved are needed. Modeling the entire U.S. energy and industrial system with new analysis tools that capture synergies not represented in sector‐specific or integrated assessment models, we created multiple pathways to net zero and net negative CO 2 emissions by 2050. They met all forecast U.S. energy needs at a net cost of 0.2–1.2% of GDP in 2050, using only commercial or near‐commercial technologies, and requiring no early retirement of existing infrastructure. Pathways with constraints on consumer behavior, land use, biomass use, and technology choices (e.g., no nuclear) met the target but at higher cost. All pathways employed four basic strategies: energy efficiency, decarbonized electricity, electrification, and carbon capture. Least‐cost pathways were based on >80% wind and solar electricity plus thermal generation for reliability. A 100% renewable primary energy system was feasible but had higher cost and land use. We found multiple feasible options for supplying low‐carbon fuels for non‐electrifiable end uses in industry, freight, and aviation, which were not required in bulk until after 2035. In the next decade, the actions required in all pathways were similar: expand renewable capacity 3.5 fold, retire coal, maintain existing gas generating capacity, and increase electric vehicle and heat pump sales to >50% of market share. This study provides a playbook for carbon neutrality policy with concrete near‐term priorities.

Williams, James H.↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Capacity Expansion Planning

This report quantifies the uncertainty in output decisions from a Capacity Expansion Planning (CEP) model. The need to understand how uncertainties within CEP models and modeling assumptions affect Quantities of Interest (QoIs) such as expansion and operating costs, as well as expansion decisions remains an ongoing challenge in scientific research and industrial operations. This area of research is particularly important for models which seek to capture how large networks will evolve and operate under increased sources of variable generation, i.e., higher penetration of renewable technologies such as solar and wind generators. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) of CEP models which estimate expansion costs and decisions, and production cost models which estimate operating costs and dispatch decisions, is a key focus of research at NREL. The Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) represents a state-of-the-art CEP model and considers a range of possible grid evolutions in an attempt to identify key drivers, ramifications, and decisions which contribute to better informed investment and policy decisions. However, research to quantify how uncertainties and model assumptions, such as unit commitment (UC), within ReEDS may be affecting its outputs remains challenging due to to size and complexity of the model

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Southern Company Services: Project 2: Tall Tower Wind Technical Potential for the Southeast (Modifications 4, 5), Project 4: Offshore Wind Potential for Southern Company Services (Modifications 7, 8)

Project 2: The National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) and Southern Company Services (SCS) seek to establish an agreement to assess the technical potential for wind energy in the Southeastern U.S. SCS has requested that NLR conduct a detailed assessment of system performance, available capacity, transmission distance, and levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) at turbine hub heights of 100m to 160m within the SCS service territory. NLR will also provide an assessment of utility photovoltaic (PV) technical potential within the SCS service territory. NLR has unique modeling capabilities to assist SCS with high spatial and temporal resolution assessment of wind and PV technical potential, considering geospatial constraints. Project 4: NLR and SCS seek to develop a spatially explicit techno-economic assessment for offshore wind energy in the Southeastern U.S. The analysis aims to characterize the regional sensitivities of offshore wind plant costs and performance, underwater cabling, potential siting constraints, and landfall spur transmission costs.

17 WIND ENERGY↗