Results for “confidence measures” — Page 15

NASA NTRS1990

Some far-field acoustics characteristics of the XV-15 tilt-rotor aircraft

Far-field acoustics tests have been conducted on an instrumented XV-15 tilt-rotor aircraft. The purpose of these acoustic measurements was to create an encompassing, high confidence (90 percent), and accurate (-1.4/ +1/8 dB theoretical confidence interval) far-field acoustics data base to validate ROTONET and other current rotorcraft noise prediction computer codes. This paper describes the flight techniques used, with emphasis on the care taken to obtain high-quality far-field acoustic data. The quality and extensiveness of the data base collected are shown by presentation of ground acoustic contours for level flyovers for the airplane flight mode and for several forward velocities and nacelle tilts for the transition mode and helicopter flight mode. Acoustic pressure time-histories and fully analyzed ensemble averaged far-field data results (spectra) are shown for each of the ground contour cases.

Golub, Robert A.↗

NASA NTRS1990

The measurement, modelling and prediction of traction forces in a rocket propellant

Traction tests were performed on RPI, a common kerosene-based rocket propellant. Traction data on this fluid are required for purposes of turbopump bearing design, using such codes as SHABERTH. To obtain the traction data, an existing twin disk machine was used, operating under the side slip mode and using elliptical contacts. The resulting traction curves were reduced to fundamental fluid property parameters using the Johnson and Tevaarwerk traction model. Theoretical traction predictions were performed by back substitution of the fundamental properties into the traction model. Comparison of the predicted with the measured curves gives a high degree of confidence in the correctness of the traction model.

Tevaarwerk, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Remote determination of exposure degree and iron concentration of lunar soils using VIS-NIR spectroscopic methods

On the Moon, space weathering processes such as micrometeorite bombardment alter the optical properties of lunar soils. As a consequence, lunar soil optical properties are a function not only of composition, but of degree of exposure on the lunar surface as well. In order to accurately assess the compositional properties of the lunar surface using remotely acquired visible and near-infrared spectroscopic data, it is thus necessary either (1) to compare optical properties only of soils characterized by similar degrees of exposure or (2) to otherwise normalize or remove the optical effects due to exposure. Laboratory spectroscopic data for lunar soils are used to develop and test remote spectrocopic methods for determining degree of exposure and for distinguishing between the optical effects due to exposure and those due to composition. A method employing a ratio between reflectances within and outside of the 1 micrometer Fe(2+) crystal field absorption band was developed for remotely identifying highland soils that have reached a steady-state maturity. The relative optical properties of these soils are a function solely of composition and as such can be directly compared. Spectroscopic techniques for accurate quantitative determination of iron content for lunar highland soils are investigated as well. It is shown that approximations of the 1 micrometer Fe(2+) absorption band depth using few to several channel multispectral data or spectroscopic data of inadequate spectral range cannot be used with confidence for compositional analysis. However, band depth measurements derived from continuum-removed high spectral resolution data can be used to calculate the weight percent FeO and relative proportion of iron-bearing silicates in mature lunar highland and mare/highland mixture soils. A preliminary effort to calibrate telescopic band depth to laboratory soil measurements is described.

Fischer, Erich M.↗

NASA NTRS1997

A Comparison of Wolf's Reconstructed Record of Annual Sunspot Number with Schwabe's Observed Record of 'Clusters of Spots' for the Interval of 1826-1868

On the basis of a comparison of Wolf s reconstructed record of yearly averages of sunspot number against Schwabe's observations of yearly counts of 'clusters of spots' (i.e., the yearly number of newly appearing sunspot groups) during the interval of 1826-1868, one infers that Wolf probably misplaced and underestimated the maximum amplitude for cycle 7. In particular, Schwabe's data suggest that the maximum amplitude for cycle 7 occurred in 1828 rather than in 1830 and that it measured about 86.3 (+/-13.9; i.e., the 90% confidence level) rather than 70.4. If true, then, the ascent and descent durations for cycle 7 should be 5 years each instead of 7 and 3 years, respectively. Likewise, on the basis of the same comparison, one infers that the maximums for cycles 8 and 9, occurring, respectively, in 1837 and 1848, were of comparable size (approximately 130), although, quite possibly, the one for cycle 8 may have been smaller. Lastly, presuming the continued action of the 'odd-even' effect (i.e., the odd-numbered following cycle of Hale even-odd cycle pairs having a maximum amplitude that is of comparable or larger size than the even-numbered leading cycle) during the earlier pre-modem era of cycles 6-9, one infers that Wolf's estimate for the size of cycle 6 probably is too low.

Wilson, Robert M.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Cloud Remote Sensing with EPIC/DSCOVR Observations: A Sensitivity Study with Radiative Transfer Simulations

The Earth Polychromatic Imaging Camera (EPIC) onboard the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) views nearly the whole sunlit face of the Earth with 10 spectral bands ranging from the UV to the near-infrared, including two oxygen absorbing bands centered at 764 nm (A-band) and 687.75 nm (B-band). Clouds are among the primary remote sensing targets using EPIC images because of their important impacts on the Earth’s radiation budget. In order to facilitate the EPIC cloud data product development, we have built a radiative transfer simulator featuring flexible cloud microphysical parameters, gas absorptions, and the instrument line shape functions for each EPIC band. The radiative transfer simulator is used to explore the sensitivity of EPIC observations on liquid-phase cloud microphysical parameters, including optical depth, geometric thickness, and cloud top height. We found that the ratios of the reflectances in the oxygen A and B bands to their respective continuum measurements can be used to increase the confidence level of cloud masking over scenes with sun-glint. In addition, the 388 nm band can be used to differentiate low and high clouds with the uncertainty of roughly 2–3 km. Combining this information with the oxygen absorption bands, the cloud geometric thickness can be obtained with the rough uncertainty of 3–4 km.

atmospheric and ocean optics↗

NASA NTRS2020

Neural Network Repair of Lossy Compression Artifacts in the Sept 2015 – March 2016 Duration of the MMS/FPI Dataset

During the Sept 2015 –March 2016 duration (sometimes referred to as Phase 1A) of the Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS), the Dual Electron Spectrometers (DES) were configured to generously utilize lossy compression. While this maximized the number of velocity distribution functions downlinked, it cameat the expense of lost information content for a fractionof the frames. Following this period of lossy compression, the DES was re-configured in a way that allowed for 95% of the framesto arrive to the ground without loss. Using this high-quality set offrameson-orbit observations, we compressed and decompressed the frameson the ground to create a side-by-side record of the compression effect. This record was used to drive an optimization method that (a) derived basis functions capable of approximating the lossless sample space and with non-negative coefficients and (b) fitted a function which maps the lossy framesto basis weights that recreate the framewithout compression artifacts. This methodis introduced and evaluated in this paper.Data users should expect a higher level of confidence in the absolute scale of density/temperature measurements andnotice less sinusoidal bias in the velocity X and Y components(GSE).

Magnetosphere, Neural Networks, Image Processing, ↗

NASA NTRS2021

A Large Fraction of Hydrogen-rich Supernova Progenitors Experience Elevated Mass Loss Shortly Prior to Explosion

Spectroscopic detection of narrow emission lines traces the presence of circumstellar mass distributions around massive stars exploding as core-collapse supernovae. Transient emission lines disappearing shortly after the supernova explosion suggest that the material spatial extent is compact and implies an increased mass loss shortly prior to explosion. Here, we present a systematic survey for such transient emission lines (Flash Spectroscopy) among Type II supernovae detected in the first year of the Zwicky Transient Facility survey. We find that at least six out of ten events for which a spectrum was obtained within two days of the estimated explosion time show evidence for such transient flash lines. Our measured flash event fraction (>30% at 95% confidence level) indicates that elevated mass loss is a common process occurring in massive stars that are about to explode as supernovae.

Rachel J. Bruch↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Preliminary Assessment of Step Effects on the BOLT Geometry in Mach 6 Flow

An infrared thermography measurement technique has been installed in the Langley Aerothermodynamic Laboratory. The system is calibrated for use with commercially available thermoplastics and ceramic materials, and to the surface temperature ranges when exposed to the facility hypersonic flow. Herein an uncertainty quantification is performed, revealing 5% surface temperature and 20% heat transfer uncertainty bands to two-sigma confidence. As a first application of the test measurement technique, an investigation was conducted to explore the correlation between the height of forward facing (FF) and rearward facing (RF) two-dimensional steps, free stream Reynolds number, and the onset of boundary layer transition from laminar to turbulent in Mach 6 flow on a 50% scale Boundary Layer Transition (BOLT) flight test vehicle geometry. Computational predictions were generated to identify potential x/L locations of transition onset for various flow conditions with a smooth outer mold line geometry and are compared to experimental results. The BOLT Step Test was conducted in the NASA Langley Aerothermodynamic Laboratory 20-inch Mach 6 wind tunnel at Reynolds numbers between 1.4 and 11.3 million conditions for various step heights. Data were collected using a developmental infrared thermography test technique and reduced to heat transfer for comparison with CFD solutions. This is a preliminary assessment of the developmental infrared thermography test technique used to acquire and reduce the experimental data. insight into the ongoing comparative analysis of the effects of FF and RF steps on boundary layer transition for the BOLT geometry in Mach 6 flow.

BOLT↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Preliminary Assessment of Step Effects on the BOLT Geometry in Mach 6 Flow

An infrared thermography measurement technique has been installed in the Langley Aerothermodynamic Laboratory. The system is calibrated for use with commercially available thermoplastics and ceramic materials, and to the surface temperature ranges when exposed to the facility hypersonic flow. Herein an uncertainty quantification is performed, revealing 5% surface temperature and 20% heat transfer uncertainty bands to two-sigma confidence. As a first application of the test measurement technique, an investigation was conducted to explore the correlation between the height of forward facing (FF) and rearward facing (RF) two-dimensional steps, free stream Reynolds number, and the onset of boundary layer transition from laminar to turbulent in Mach 6 flow on a 50% scale Boundary Layer Transition (BOLT) flight test vehicle geometry. Computational predictions were generated to identify potential x/L locations of transition onset for various flow conditions with a smooth outer mold line geometry and are compared to experimental results. The BOLT Step Test was conducted in the NASA Langley Aerothermodynamic Laboratory 20-inch Mach 6 wind tunnel at Reynolds numbers between 1.4 and 11.3 million conditions for various step heights. Data were collected using a developmental infrared thermography test technique and reduced to heat transfer for comparison with CFD solutions. This is a preliminary assessment of the developmental infrared thermography test technique used to acquire and reduce the experimental data. insight into the ongoing comparative analysis of the effects of FF and RF steps on boundary layer transition for the BOLT geometry in Mach 6 flow.

BOLT↗

NASA NTRS1980

Spacecraft utility and the development of confidence intervals for criticality of anomalies

The concept of spacecraft utility, a measure of its performance in orbit, is discussed and its formulation is described. Performance is defined in terms of the malfunctions that occur and the criticality to the mission of these malfunctions. Different approaches to establishing average or expected values of criticality are discussed and confidence intervals are developed for parameters used in the computation of utility.

Williams, R. E.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Surrogate modeling for efficiently, accurately and conservatively estimating measures of risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. Risk measures combine objective probabilities with the subjective values of a decision maker to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical approximations obtained from the training data. These surrogate models limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments and produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to a stakeholder’s risk preferences and then present an approach, based on stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. Our surrogate models include biases that permit them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that these biases decay at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Numerical demonstrations confirm that risk-adapted surrogate models do indeed overestimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

42 ENGINEERING↗

NASA NTRS2003

International Space Station Microgravity Analytical Model Correlation And Update

The acceleration environment aboard the completed International Space Station (ISS) is a key resource for scientific and technological endeavors. Hardware verification activIties and early measurements indicate that the ISS is well on the way of meeting these "Assembly Complete" "microgravity" provisions, however, the simulation models that compute these accelerations have, to date, lacked the high degree of empirical validation typical of standard aerospace industry practices. Assembly stage, on-orbit measurements are used to address this shortcoming and to develop higher confidence in the simulation models. The Phase I correlation results show the analyses to be consistently conservative, producing higher than measured levels. The 25 to 30% greater quasi-steady computations are deemed acceptable for verification. Updates are made to localized structural dynamic and vibroacoustic parameters that reduce responses in selected one-third octave bands by almost 50%. These models are then used for the Assembly Complete verification analysis which concludes that the ISS vehicle meets the ISS microgravity requirements with minor reservations. Two of the sixteen rack are marginally non-compliant in the quasi-steady regime, and operational constraints are needed on the U. S. Lab and ESA APM vacuum resource vents, and the Russian Resistive Exercise Device in the structural dynamic regime.

DelBasso, Steve↗

NASA NTRS1991

The temperature of the cosmic microwave background radiation at 3.8 GHz - Results of a measurement from the South Pole site

As part of an international collaboration to measure the low-frequency spectrum of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) radiation, its temperature was measured at a frequency of 3.8 GHz, during the austral spring of 1989, obtaining a brightness temperature, T(CMB), of 2.64 +/-0.07 K (68 percent confidence level). The new result is in agreement with previous measurements at the same frequency obtained in 1986-88 from a very different site and has comparable error bars. Combining measurements from all years, T(CMB) = 2.64 +/-0.06 K is obtained.

De Amici, Giovanni↗

NASA NTRS2019

Dynamic Testing of a High-Specific-Torque Concentric Magnetic Gear

This presentation presents measurements of the efficiency of NASA's 2nd magnetic gear prototype. A detailed discussion of the test rig used to make these measurements was presented, including a thorough uncertainty analysis. The reported uncertainties are 95% confidence intervals that include the effects of temperature and parasitic loads. The prototype's response was measured at output speeds between 124 rpm and 744 rpm for a controlled output torque of 10 Nm (8% of the prototype's maximum torque). After correcting for tare losses, the prototype's efficiency was found to decrease from 90.0% to 83.0% as speed increased. If the efficiency is extrapolated to a typical operating condition (85% of maximum torque) using the good assumption that energy loss is approximately independent of the transmitted torque,the expected efficiency would be 99.0% to 98.4%, which exceeds the state of the art for these speeds.

Scheidler, Justin↗

NASA NTRS2019

High Speed Testing of a High Efficiency Concentric Magnetic Gear

This presentation presents measurements of the efficiency of NASA's 2nd magnetic gear prototype. A detailed discussion of the test rig used to make these measurements was presented, including a thorough uncertainty analysis. The reported uncertainties are 95% confidence intervals that include the effects of temperature and parasitic loads. The prototype's response was measured at output speeds between 124 rpm and 744 rpm for a controlled output torque of 10 Nm (8% of the prototype's maximum torque). After correcting for tare losses, the prototype's efficiency was found to decrease from 90.0% to 83.0% as speed increased. If the efficiency is extrapolated to a typical operating condition (85% of maximum torque) using the good assumption that energy loss is approximately independent of the transmitted torque,the expected efficiency would be 99.0% to 98.4%, which exceeds the state of the art for these speeds.

Scheidler, Justin↗

DOE OSTI2021

Surrogate Modeling For Efficiently Accurately and Conservatively Estimating Measures of Risk

We present a surrogate modeling framework for conservatively estimating measures of risk from limited realizations of an expensive physical experiment or computational simulation. We adopt a probabilistic description of risk that assigns probabilities to consequences associated with an event and use risk measures, which combine objective evidence with the subjective values of decision makers, to quantify anticipated outcomes. Given a set of samples, we construct a surrogate model that produces estimates of risk measures that are always greater than their empirical estimates obtained from the training data. These surrogate models not only limit over-confidence in reliability and safety assessments, but produce estimates of risk measures that converge much faster to the true value than purely sample-based estimates. We first detail the construction of conservative surrogate models that can be tailored to the specific risk preferences of the stakeholder and then present an approach, based upon stochastic orders, for constructing surrogate models that are conservative with respect to families of risk measures. The surrogate models introduce a bias that allows them to conservatively estimate the target risk measures. We provide theoretical results that show that this bias decays at the same rate as the L 2 error in the surrogate model. Our numerical examples confirm that risk-aware surrogate models do indeed over-estimate the target risk measures while converging at the expected rate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1976

Investigation of the effect of atmospheric dust on the determination of total ozone from the earth's ultraviolet reflectivity measurements, 2

Results of a detailed analysis of the simulated measurements for the BUV (Nimbus-4) configuration are described by using a total-ozone estimation procedure. A set of recommendations are discussed for increasing the accuracy and confidence level of the total ozone values estimated from the measurements of the earth's ultraviolet reflectivity at five different wavelengths (BUV configuration). A tentative procedure is also considered for the estimation of total ozone from measurements of reflectivity at six different wavelengths specified in the SBUV/TOMS (Nimbus-G) configuration.

Dave, J. V.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Absolute Density Calibration Cell for Laser Induced Fluorescence Erosion Rate Measurements

Flight qualification of ion thrusters typically requires testing on the order of 10,000 hours. Extensive knowledge of wear mechanisms and rates is necessary to establish design confidence prior to long duration tests. Consequently, real-time erosion rate measurements offer the potential both to reduce development costs and to enhance knowledge of the dependency of component wear on operating conditions. Several previous studies have used laser-induced fluorescence (LIF) to measure real-time, in situ erosion rates of ion thruster accelerator grids. Those studies provided only relative measurements of the erosion rate. In the present investigation, a molybdenum tube was resistively heated such that the evaporation rate yielded densities within the tube on the order of those expected from accelerator grid erosion. This work examines the suitability of the density cell as an absolute calibration source for LIF measurements, and the intrinsic error was evaluated.

Domonkos, Matthew T.↗