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NASA NTRS1994

Comparison of large-scale structures and velocities in the local universe

Comparison of the large-scale density and velocity fields in the local universe shows detailed agreement, strengthening the standard paradigm of the gravitational origin of these structures. Quantitative analysis can determine the cosmological density parameter, Omega, and biasing factor, b; there is virtually no sensitivity in any local analyses to the cosmologial constant, lambda. Comparison of the dipole anisotropy of the cosmic microwave background with the acceleration due to the Infrared Astronomy Satellite (IRAS) galaxies puts the linear growth factor in the range beta approximately equals Omega (exp 0.6)/b = 0.6(+0.7/-0.3) (95% confidence). A direct comparison of the density and velocity fields of nearby galaxies gives beta = 1.3 (+0.7/-0.6), and from nonlinear analysis the weaker limit (Omega greater than 0.45 for b greater than 0.5 (again 95% confidence). A tighter limit (Omega greater than 0.3 (4-6 sigma)), is obtained by a reconstruction of the probability distribution function of the initial fluctuations from which the structures observed today arose. The last two methods depend critically on the smooth velocity field determined from the observed velocities of nearby galaxies by the POTENT method. A new analysis of these velocities, with more than three times the data used to obtain the above quoted results, is now underway and promises to tighten the uncertainties considerably, as well as reduce systematic bias.

Yahil, Amos↗
NASA NTRS1994

An ASCA GIS spectrum of S5 0014+813 AT z = 3.384

ASCA has detected the z = 3.384 quasar S5 0014+813 up to energies of 34 keV in the quasar rest frame using the two gas imaging spectrometer (GIS) instruments. The combined X-ray spectrum has a signal-to-noise ratio of over 50 sigma and is consistent with a single power law of energy slope 0.63 +/- 0.03 over the 0.8-8 keV (observed) energy range. The spectrum is also well fitted with a simple thermal bremsstrahlung model of kT = 40 +/- 4 keV (in the quasar frame), which raises obvious possibilities for contributions to the diffuse X-ray background. A maximum solid angle of Omega(sub d)/2(pi) = 0.4(90% confidence) can be placed on the strength of a Compton reflection component above the energy of the Fe K-edge. The Fe K 6.4 keV fluorescence line has a rest frame equivalent width less than 120 eV (90% confidence) at its redshifted energy of 1.46 keV. The weakness of these features differentiates this high-luminosity, high-redshift quasar from the majority of Seyfert galaxies using its X-ray spectrum alone. The GIS slope is consistent with the slope derived by the ROSAT Position Sensitive Proportional Counter (PSPC). The normalization at 1 keV in the ASCA observation is, however, a factor 30%-40% higher than in the ROSAT observation, suggesting a significant increase in the 1 keV (observed) flux over the 31.5 months between the two observations (7.2 months, rest frame).

Elvis, Martin↗
NASA NTRS1994

Measurement of the cosmic microwave background spectrum by the COBE FIRAS instrument

The cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) has a blackbody spectrum within 3.4 x 10(exp -8) ergs/sq cm/s/sr cm over the frequency range from 2 to 20/cm (5-0.5 mm). These measurements, derived from the Far-Infrared Absolute Spectrophotomer (FIRAS) instrument on the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite, imply stringent limits on energy release in the early universe after t approximately 1 year and redshift z approximately 3 x 10(exp 6). The deviations are less than 0.30% of the peak brightness, with an rms value of 0.01%, and the dimensionless cosmological distortion parameters are limited to the absolute value of y is less than 2.5 x 10(exp -5) and the absolute value of mu is less than 3.3 x 10(exp -4) (95% confidence level). The temperature of the CMBR is 2.726 +/- 0.010 K (95% confidence level systematic).

Mather, J. C.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Cosmic microwave background dipole spectrum measured by the COBE FIRAS instrument

The Far-Infrared Absolute Spectrophotometer (FIRAS) instrument on the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) has determined the dipole spectrum of the cosmic microwave background radiation (CMBR) from 2 to 20/cm. For each frequency the signal is decomposed by fitting to a monopole, a dipole, and a Galactic template for approximately 60% of the sky. The overall dipole spectrum fits the derivative of a Planck function with an amplitude of 3.343 +/- 0.016 mK (95% confidence level), a temperature of 2.714 +/- 0.022 K (95% confidence level), and an rms deviation of 6 x 10(exp -9) ergs/sq cm/s/sr cm limited by a detector and cosmic-ray noise. The monopole temperature is consistent with that determined by direct measurement in the accompanying article by Mather et al.

Fixsen, D. J.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Application of 50 MHz doppler radar wind profiler to launch operations at Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Station

This paper presents a case study where a significant wind shift, not detected by jimspheres, was detected by the 50 MHz DRWP (Doppler Radar Wind Profiler) and evaluated to be acceptable prior to the launch of a Shuttle. This case study illustrates the importance of frequent upper air wind measurements for detecting significant rapidly changing features as well as for providing confidence that the features really exist and are not due to instrumentation error. Had the release of the jimsphere been timed such that it would have detected the entire wind shift, there would not have been sufficient time to release another jimsphere to confirm the existence of the feature prior to the scheduled launch. We found that using a temporal median filter on the one minute spectral estimates coupled with a constraining window about a first guess velocity effectively removes nearly all spurious signals from the velocity profile generated by NASA's 50 MHz DRWP while boosting the temporal resolution to as high as one profile every 3 minutes. The higher temporal resolution of the 50 MHz DRWP using the signal processing algorithm described in this paper ensures the detection of rapidly changing features as well as provides the confidence that the features are genuine. Further benefit is gained when the profiles generated by the DRWP are examined in relation to the profiles measured by jimspheres and/or rawinsondes. The redundancy offered by using two independent measurements can dispel or confirm any suspicion regarding instrumentation error or malfunction and wind profiles can be examined in light of their respective instruments' strengths and weaknesses.

Schumann, Robin S.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Prelude to Cycle 23: The Case for a Fast-Rising, Large Amplitude Cycle

For the common data-available interval of cycles 12 to 22, we show that annual averages of sunspot number for minimum years (R(min)) and maximum years (R(max)) and of the minimum value of the aa geomagnetic index in the vicinity of sunspot minimum (aa(min)) are consistent with the notion that each has embedded within its respective record a long-term, linear, secular increase. Extrapolating each of these fits to cycle 23, we infer that it will have R(min) = 12.7 +/- 5.7, R(max) = 176.7 +/- 61.8, and aa(min) = 21.0 +/- 5.0 (at the 95-percent level of confidence), suggesting that cycle 23 will have R(min) greater than 7.0, R(max) greater than 114.9, and aa(min) greater than 16.0 (at the 97.5-percent level of confidence). Such values imply that cycle 23 will be larger than average in size and, consequently (by the Waidmeier effect), will be a fast riser. We also infer from the R(max) and aa(min) records the existence of an even- odd cycle effect, one in which the odd-following cycle is numerically larger in value than the even-leading cycle. For cycle 23, the even-odd cycle effect suggests that R(max) greater than 157.6 and aa(min) greater than 19.0, values that were recorded for cycle 22, the even-leading cycle of the current even-odd cycle pair (cycles 22 and 23). For 1995, the annual average of the aa index measured about 22, while for sunspot number, it was about 18. Because aa(min) usually lags R(min) by 1 year (true for 8 of 11 cycles) and 1996 seems destined to be the year of R(min) for cycle 23, it may be that aa(min) will occur in 1997, although it could occur in 1996 in conjunction with R(min) (true for 3 of 11 cycles). Because of this ambiguity in determining aa(min), no formal prediction based on the correlation of R(max) against aa(min), having r = 0.90, or of R(max) against the combined effects of R(min) and aa(min)-the bivariate technique-having r = 0.99, is possible until 1997, at the earliest.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Global Plate Velocities from the Global Positioning System

We have analyzed 204 days of Global Positioning System (GPS) data from the global GPS network spanning January 1991 through March 1996. On the basis of these GPS coordinate solutions, we have estimated velocities for 38 sites, mostly located on the interiors of the Africa, Antarctica, Australia, Eurasia, Nazca, North America, Pacific, and South America plates. The uncertainties of the horizontal velocity components range from 1.2 to 5.0 mm/yr. With the exception of sites on the Pacific and Nazca plates, the GPS velocities agree with absolute plate model predictions within 95% confidence. For most of the sites in North America, Antarctica, and Eurasia, the agreement is better than 2 mm/yr. We find no persuasive evidence for significant vertical motions (less than 3 standard deviations), except at four sites. Three of these four were sites constrained to geodetic reference frame velocities. The GPS velocities were then used to estimate angular velocities for eight tectonic plates. Absolute angular velocities derived from the GPS data agree with the no net rotation (NNR) NUVEL-1A model within 95% confidence except for the Pacific plate. Our pole of rotation for the Pacific plate lies 11.5 deg west of the NNR NUVEL-1A pole, with an angular speed 10% faster. Our relative angular velocities agree with NUVEL-1A except for some involving the Pacific plate. While our Pacific-North America angular velocity differs significantly from NUVEL-1A, our model and NUVEL-1A predict very small differences in relative motion along the Pacific-North America plate boundary itself. Our Pacific-Australia and Pacific- Eurasia angular velocities are significantly faster than NUVEL-1A, predicting more rapid convergence at these two plate boundaries. Along the East Pacific Pise, our Pacific-Nazca angular velocity agrees in both rate and azimuth with NUVFL-1A.

Larson, Kristine M.↗
NASA NTRS1998

On the Correlation Between Maximum Amplitude and Smoothed Monthly Mean Sunspot Number during the Rise of the Cycle (from t = 0-48 months Past Sunspot Minimum)

During the rise from sunspot minimum to maximum, the observed value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number at maximum RM is found to correlate with increasing strength against the current value of smoothed monthly mean sunspot number R(t), where t is the elapsed time in months from minimum. On the basis of the modern era sunspot cycles (i.e., cycles 10-22), the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important (i.e., at the 95-percent level of confidence) from about 11 mo past minimum and statistically very important (i.e.. at the 99-percent level of confidence) from about 15 mo past minimum; ignoring cycle 19, the largest cycle of the modern era, the inferred linear correlation is found to be statistically important from cycle onset. On the basis of R(t), estimates of RM can be gauged usually to within about +/- 30 percent during the first 2 yr and to within about +/- 20 percent (or better) after the first 2 yr of a cycle's onset. For cycle 23, because controversy exists regarding the placement of its minimum (i.e., its onset), being either May 1996 or perhaps August 1996 (or shortly thereafter), estimates of its RM are divergent, being lower (more like a mean size cycle) when using the earlier epoch of minimum and higher (above average in size) when using the later-occurring minimum. For smoothed monthly mean sunspot number through October 1997 (t = 17 or 14 mo, respectively), having a provisional value of 32.0. the earlier minimum date projects an RM of 110.3 +/- 33.1, while the later minimum date projects one of 137.2 +/- 41.2. The projection is slowly decreasing in size using the earlier onset date, while it is slowly increasing in size using the later onset date.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS1961

A Study of the Effect of Errors in Measurement of Velocity and Flight-Path Angle on the Guidance of a Space Vehicle Approaching the Earth

An analysis was made of the guidance of a space vehicle approaching the earth at supercircular velocity through an entrance corridor containing a desired perigee altitude. Random errors were assumed in the measurement of velocity and flight-path angle and in obtaining the desired thrust impulse. The method described in NASA Technical Note D-191 of scheduling corrections at different values of the angle between perigee and the vehicle's position vector and a slight modification of this method were investigated as a means of correcting perigee altitude when the vehicle's predicted position was at programmed correction points not within a specified deadband about the desired perigee altitude. The study showed that modifying the angular method of NASA Technical Note D-191 by adding another correction near the initial point did not improve the efficiency and accuracy of the angular method. It was found that in some cases the use of a correction procedure which included a deadband could be more costly in total corrective velocity than a procedure which neglected the deadband. This was especially true if a large degree of confidence was required in the total corrective velocity. It was apparent from the results that a correction with a deadband limit in the guidance scheme was more sensitive to the initial conditions, the corrective procedure, the deadband, and the degree of confidence required than a correction without a deadband limit.

White, Jack A.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Third EGRET Catalog of High-Energy Gamma-Ray Sources

The third catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources detected by the EGRET telescope on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory includes data from 1991 April 22 to 1995 October 3 (Cycles 1, 2, 3, and 4 of the mission). In addition to including more data than the second EGRET catalog (Thompson et al. 1995) and its supplement (Thompson et al. 1996), this catalog uses completely reprocessed data (to correct a number of mostly minimal errors and problems). The 271 sources (E greater than 100 MeV) in the catalog include the single 1991 solar flare bright enough to be detected as a source, the Large Magellanic Cloud, five pulsars, one probable radio galaxy detection (Cen A), and 66 high-confidence identifications of blazars (BL Lac objects, flat-spectrum radio quasars, or unidentified flat-spectrum radio sources). In addition, 27 lower-confidence potential blazar identifications are noted. Finally, the catalog contains 170 sources not yet identified firmly with known objects, although potential identifications have been suggested for a number of those. A figure is presented that gives approximate upper limits for gamma-ray sources at any point in the sky, as well as information about sources listed in the second catalog and its supplement which do not appear in this catalog.

Hartman, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Correlations Between the Cosmic X-Ray and Microwave Backgrounds: Constraints on a Cosmological Constant

In universes with significant curvature or cosmological constant, cosmic microwave background (CMB) anisotropies are created very recently via the Rees-Sciama or integrated Sachs-Wolfe effects. This causes the CMB anisotropies to become partially correlated with the local matter density (z less than 4). We examine the prospects of using the hard (2- 10 keV) X-ray background as a probe of the local density and the measured correlation between the HEAO1 A2 X-ray survey and the 4-year COBE-DMR map to obtain a constraint on the cosmological constant. The 95% confidence level upper limit on the cosmological constant is OMega(sub Lambda) less than or equal to 0.5, assuming that the observed fluctuations in the X-ray map result entirely from large scale structure. (This would also imply that the X-rays trace matter with a bias factor of b(sub x) approx. = 5.6 Omega(sub m, sup 0.53)). This bound is weakened considerably if a large portion of the X-ray fluctuations arise from Poisson noise from unresolved sources. For example, if one assumes that the X-ray bias is b(sub x) = 2, then the 95% confidence level upper limit is weaker, Omega(sub Lambda) less than or equal to 0.7. More stringent limits should be attainable with data from the next generation of CMB and X-ray background maps.

Boughn, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1999

System Identification for Integrated Aircraft Development and Flight Testing [l'Identification Des Systemes Pour le Developpement Integre des Aeronefs et les Essais en Vol]

Over the last decades flight vehicles such as aircraft and helicopters entering service and requiring increased operational effectiveness have with few exceptions experienced prolonged flight test development to achieve full certification. In many cases the original requirements had later to be reduced to enable release to service. The impact on the customer, and manufacturer has been considerable leading to increased costs and or reduced operational capabilities. These costly experiences are largely a result of the flight vehicle not behaving as modelled and designed. The evaluation of flight test data can be used as a tool for validating windtunnel results and mathematical models describing the flight dynamical behaviour. In this sense the uncertainty of important aerodynamic stability and control parameters can be reduced and the confidence of aircraft mathematical models improved. An additional important factor comes from the implementation of active control systems offering the promise of significantly increased flight vehicle performance and operational capability. This approach extends the traditional trade-offs between aerodynamics, structures and propulsion systems to include full- time, full-authority fly-by-wire/light systems. It is imperative that the aerodynamic stability and control parameters of such integrated flight and propulsion control systems have to turn out inflight as predicted, since inherent stability margins will be lower and the flight control system must correct these deficiencies to provide flight critical redundancy and safety. With the methodology of system identification from flight tests it is possible to sense the control inputs and the flight vehicle reactions Such as accelerations, rates and attitudes. The mathematical model, e.g. the model structure and parameters, has to be determined from the relationship of the measured control inputs and the system's responses. The aim of this symposium was to review the present state of the art of flight vehicle system and parameter identification techniques, and to provide a critical appraisal of current methods developed and applied to flight test data in a number of NATO nations. Particular emphasis was placed on practical aspects and lessons learned in order to generate information useful to the flight test community in industry and government agencies. The technical papers share invaluable experience and emphasize the advances of flight vehicle system identification over the last years to the point where confidence and robustness level is now reasonably high. The symposium covered overviews of identification methodologies, flight test techniques, recent aircraft and helicopter application programs, and a session of short papers covering up-to-the-minute flight test results. A final discussion included prepared comments from experts and concluded with key issues learned in the application of system identification and future research needs. The essential benefits to NATO nations can be condensed as follows: More accurate mathematical models for high bandwidth flight control systems, Improved assessment and evaluation of flying qualities, High fidelity mathematical models for flight vehicle development and mission training simulators, and generally, Reduced flight test time and costs.

Advisory Group for Aerospace Research and Developm↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Third EGRET Catalog of High-Energy Gamma-Ray Sources

The third catalog of high-energy gamma-ray sources detected by the EGRET telescope on the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory includes data from 1991 April 22 to 1995 October 3 (Cycles 1, 2, 3, and 4 of the mission). In addition to including more data than the second EGRET catalog and its supplement, this catalog uses completely reprocessed data (to correct a number of mostly minimal errors and problems). The 271 sources (E greater than 100 MeV) in the catalog include the single 1991 solar flare bright enough to be detected as a source, the Large Magellanic Cloud, five pulsars, one probable radio galaxy detection (Cen A), and 66 high-confidence identifications of blazars (BL Lac objects, flat-spectrum radio quasars, or unidentified flat-spectrum radio sources). In addition, 27 lower-confidence potential blazar identifications are noted. Finally, the catalog contains 170 sources not yet identified firmly with known objects, although potential identifications have been suggested for a number of those. A figure is presented that gives approximate upper limits for gamma-ray sources at any point in the sky, as well as information about sources listed in the second catalog and its supplement which do not appear in this catalog.

Hartman, R. C.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Survey and Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g. regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a complete description of future activity, while others, e.g. geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This Combined Precursor Method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+/-21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the next complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146+/-20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS1998

The Error Distribution of BATSE GRB Location

We develop empirical probability models for BATSE GRB location errors by a Bayesian analysis of the separations between BATSE GRB locations and locations obtained with the InterPlanetary Network (IPN). Models are compared and their parameters estimated using 394 GRBs with single IPN annuli and 20 GRBs with intersecting IPN annuli. Most of the analysis is for the 4B (rev) BATSE catalog; earlier catalogs are also analyzed. The simplest model that provides a good representation of the error distribution has 78% of the locations in a 'core' term with a systematic error of 1.85 degrees and the remainder in an extended tail with a systematic error of 5.36 degrees, implying a 68% confidence region for bursts with negligible statistical errors of 2.3 degrees. There is some evidence for a more complicated model in which the error distribution depends on the BATSE datatype that was used to obtain the location. Bright bursts are typically located using the CONT datatype, and according to the more complicated model, the 68% confidence region for CONT-located bursts with negligible statistical errors is 2.0 degrees.

Briggs, Michael S.↗
NASA NTRS1999

HSR Propulsion System Studies: A Status Report on the Down-Select Process

When the HSR program began there was widespread belief that a simple and familiar turbojet-like engine coupled to an advanced technology mixer-ejector nozzle was the propulsion system of choice for achieving FAR 36-Stage 3 noise requirements. Our ability to quickly demonstrate a practical 20(+) dB suppression nozzle was confidently presumed by many. Our rate of progress towards that objective, however, has been somewhat humbling. At the moment we are reasonably confident of achieving about 15 dB suppression with a mixer-ejector nozzle designed for a high specific thrust turbojet-like cycle. Therefore, if we make no further suppression progress and conservatively assume no new operational procedures such as programmed lapse rate (PLR), then meeting the Stage 3 goal requires a large amount of engine and/or wing oversizing which is economically prohibitive. The scenario is further aggravated by the possibility of eventually needing to comply with even more stringent regulations (Stage 4). While this status may be somewhat disappointing to some, it must be remembered that the HSR program plan involves two generations of mixer-ejector nozzles beyond the current generation I nozzle designs. It is premature to conclude that we cannot design a practical 20(+) dB mixer-ejector nozzle. On the other hand, it is prudent to consider alternative solutions to the noise problem. Thus, we are investigating four other propulsion system concepts.

Strack, W. C.↗
NASA NTRS1998

A Close Look at the Plasmasphere

The plasmasphere is a toroidal region around the Earth and is filled with cold dense plasma in which the magnetic field lines are mainly closed. The plasmasphere has been studied since the discovery of the plasmaspause by Carpenter in 19xx. Since that time an impressive array of satellites and rockets have been brought to bear on studies of the region. It is a region in which the science seems to be considered as mature. We will explore the known aspects of the plasmasphere, those things that appear to be known well enough to be modeled with some degree of confidence. The areas that are not as confidently modeled, mostly on the outer boundary, aspects of refilling, convection around to the dayside, and duskside phenomenon, will be examined with the object of showing the areas of research in the plasmasphere that need further investment of resources.

Craven, Paul D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Hathaway, David H.↗