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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact Real World System Validation

Introduction NASA has developed a new evidence-based data-driven probabilistic risk assessment and tradespace analysis tool as a successor to the Integrated Medical Model. This updated decision support tool is known as IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces). IMPACT estimates the frequency and consequences of medical conditions that might arise during exploration missions. A validation analysis of IMPACT was performed with respect to a set of International Space Station (ISS) and Shuttle Transportation System (STS) real world system (RWS) referent data due to the limited referent data available from exploration missions. Methods Observed mission and crew characteristics from STS and ISS missions were used as model inputs within MEDPRAT (Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool). For each mission, two hundred thousand simulations were generated. For each mission, model outputs included occurrence counts for each condition, total medical events (TME), and the probability of loss of crew life (LOCL). These simulated model outputs were compared to the RWS referent data. Results The predicted number of total medical events exceeded the total RWS medical events for ISS missions and combined ISS and STS missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for STS missions. For the 32 ISS missions simulated by IMPACT, the number of total medical events was overpredicted for 19 missions and fell within the 90% confidence interval for 13 missions. For the 21 STS missions, the total number of medical events was overpredicted for 3 missions, fell within the 90% confidence interval for 16 missions, and was underpredicted for 2 missions. Combined, 29 missions were in range, 22 were overpredicted, and 2 were underpredicted. The predicted LOCL probability for the 32 ISS missions, the 21 STS missions, and the combined ISS and STS missions was consistent with the zero LOCL events observed in the RWS referent data. The validation analysis included a comparison of the number of medical events predicted by IMPACT and the number of medical events observed in the RWS data on a condition-by-condition basis. For ISS missions, 50 conditions were in range, 52 conditions were statistically underpowered (not enough observed sample to draw any conclusions on precision), 8 conditions were overpredicted, and 9 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 14% (17/119) of conditions were out of range for STS missions, 40 conditions were in range, 59 conditions were statistically underpowered, 10 conditions were overpredicted, and 10 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 17% (20/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 11 conditions were overpredicted, and 11 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, only 18% (22/119) of conditions were out of range. For combined ISS and STS missions, 49 conditions were in range, 46 conditions were statistically underpowered, 18 conditions were overpredicted, and 8 conditions were underpredicted. Overall, 21% (26/121) of conditions were out of range. Conclusion The results of this validation analysis should not be interpreted as a pass/fail test of the validity of IMPACT. Instead, this validation analysis should be used to assess some of the IMPACT outcomes in terms of consistencies and inconsistencies with the ISS and STS RWS referent data.

L. Boley↗
NASA NTRS2021

Global Soil Water Estimates as Landslide Predictor: The Effectiveness of SMOS, SMAP, and GRACE Observations, Land Surface Simulations, and Data Assimilation

This global feasibility study assesses the potential of coarse-scale, gridded soil water estimates for the probabilistic modeling of hydrologically-triggered landslides, using Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS), Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) remote sensing data, Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulations and six data products based on the assimilation of SMOS, SMAP, and/or GRACE observations into CLSM. SMOS or SMAP observations (~40-km resolution) are only available for less than 20% of the globally reported landslide events, because they are intermittent and uncertain in regions with complex terrain. GRACE terrestrial water storage estimates include 75% of the reported landslides but have coarse spatial and temporal resolutions (monthly, ~300-km). CLSM soil water simulations have the added advantage of complete spatial and temporal coverage, and are found to be able to distinguish between “stable slope” (no landslide) conditions and landslide-inducing conditions in a probabilistic way. Assimilating SMOS and/or GRACE data increases the landslide probability estimates based on soil water percentiles for the reported landslides, relative to model-only estimates at 36-km resolution for the period 2011-2016, unless the CLSM model-only soil water content is already high (≥ 50th percentile). The SMAP Level 4 data assimilation product (at 9-km resolution, period 2015-2019) more generally updates the soil water conditions towards higher landslide probabilities for the reported landslides, but is similar to model-only estimates for the majority of landslides where SMAP data cannot easily be converted to soil moisture owing to complex terrain.

Anne Felsberg↗
NASA NTRS1994

REE chemistry and Sm-Nd systematics of late Archean weathering profiles in the Fortescue Group, Western Australia

Two weathering profiles, each consisting of an upper, sericite-rich zone and a lower, chlorite-rich zone, are preserved between flows of the Mt. Roe Basalt in the Fortescue Group, Hamersley Basin, Western Australia. REE concentrations in samples from these two profiles, which originally developed ca 2,760 Ma, show large variations depending on stratigraphic position. LREE abundances and (La/Yb)N are greatest at depths of 3-6 m below the paleosurface of the Mt. Roe #1 profile and are somewhat lower in samples above this level. The LREEs reach concentrations 6-9 times greater than in the underlying basalt, and thus appear to have been mobilized downward in the paleosol and concentrated in its middle part. LREE concentrations in the #2 profile show a similar distribution but with a sharp increase in all REE concentrations within 50 cm of the paleosurface. The distinction between the REE profiles in the two paleosols may be related to the difference in the overlying material. The #1 paleosol is overlain by a few meters of sediments and then by basalt, whereas the #2 paleosol is directly overlain by basalt. The LREEs appear to have been mobilized both during chemical weathering of the parental basalt and during later lower-greenschist-facies metamorphism and metasomatism of the paleosols. Remobilization of the REEs during the regional metamorphism of the Fortescue Group is confirmed by a whole-rock Sm-Nd reference isochron of Mt. Roe #1 samples with an age of 2,151 +/- 360 Ma. Variable initial 143Nd/144Nd values of unweathered basalt samples which may represent the paleosol protolith prevents a confident determination of the magnitude of LREE mobility. Both the initial mobilization of the REEs during weathering and the metasomatic remobilization appear to have taken place under redox conditions where Ce was present dominantly as Ce3+, because Ce anomalies are not developed within the sericite zone samples regardless of concentration. Europium anomalies in the paleoweathering profile are somewhat variable and were probably modified by mobilization of Eu2+ at metamorphic conditions. In all samples, the HREEs appear to have been relatively immobile and correlate with Al, Ti, Cr, V, Zr, and Nb. Sm-Nd systematics and REE patterns of four unweathered basalt samples indicate derivation of the Mt. Roe Basalts from a heterogeneous and enriched source having epsilon Nd between -4.0 and -7.4. Initial 143Nd/144Nd values of these basalts are even lower than those reported by NELSON et al. (1992) for Fortescue Group basalts and indicate a substantial crustal component in the generation of Mt. Roe Basalts.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗
NASA NTRS1993

Comparative measurement of visual stability in Earth and cosmic space (L-4)

The frequency and the intensity of space motion sickness was reviewed and investigated. Unusual induced-gravity situations, such as rotation, linear acceleration, parallel swinging etc. were investigated as well. Visually-induced motion sensation or distorted perception were evaluated with respect to visual stability by many investigators. These studies are all concerned with the effect of gravity and the induction of motion sickness through human visual perception. Direct investigation under the microgravity situation, such as parabolic flight, Skylab, and Spacelab, was carried out. These studies focused on how human visual stability is established through various sensory afferents in specific gravity conditions. Results from these investigations indicate that sensory mismatch probably plays an important role in space motion sickness. The interaction of visual, vestibular, and somatosensory perception is smoothly coordinated under normal gravitational conditions on the Earth in our daily life. When the cooperation is destroyed or a mismatch occurs among them, motion sickness may develop not only on the Earth but also in microgravity. The latter case may be the cause of space motion sickness or space adaption syndrome. How human beings obtain visual stability even with posture changes on the ground was investigated. Visual stability can be categorized as static or dynamic. Static visual stability is concerned with orientation and dynamic stability is concerned with object motion perception. The perception of visual stability is modified by many other sensations, such as somatosensory, vestibular, and muscle tension. We will mainly focus on modifications by vestibular inputs to visual perception produced by eye movements in microgravity. The Vestibular-Oscular Reflex (VOR) is a well-known characteristic which results from the relationship between eye mobility and vestibular afferent inputs. Eye movements also modify dynamic visual perception, such as perceived object motion velocity. The VOR is constantly simulated under 1-g conditions on Earth. In fact, human beings have been habituated and 'programmed' for orientation (visual stability) in their everyday, 1-g environment. When humans are exposed to a different gravity situation, this programmed behavior must change; that is, it is reprogrammed. This is called habituation or familiarization. We hope to examine how object motion perception is perturbed and subsequently adapted in the microgravity environment. This experiment is focused on the cooperation of visual, vestibular, and somatosensory perception coordination and how it is changed or reduced in space compared to 1-g environment. We will obtain information on the coordination between eye movement and neck muscle activity by using EOG and EMG. We will also collect data from Payload Specialists using a self-diagnostic questionnaire concerned with perceptual abnormality. When each sensory input function and its integration in the higher nervous system are well-characterized, then more effective techniques to control SAS may be developed.

Koga, Kazugo↗
NASA NTRS2000

Simulation of X-38 Landing Scenarios With Landing Gear Failures

Abnormal landing scenarios of the X-38 prototype Crew Rescue Vehicle (CRV) were modeled for three different cases involving non-deployment of landing gear with an explicit dynamic nonlinear finite element code, MSC/DYTRAN. The goal of this research was to develop models to predict the probability of crew injuries. The initial velocity conditions for the X-38 with chute deployed were 10 ft/s vertical and 57 ft/s longitudinal velocity. An MSC/NASTRAN structural model was supplied by JSC and was converted to a dynamic MSC/DYTRAN model. The MSC/NASTRAN model did not include seats or floor structure; thus, the acceleration of a lumped-mass attached to the bulkhead near each assumed occupant location was used to determine injury risk for each occupant. The worst case for injury was nondeployment of all gears. The mildest case was nondeployment of one main gear. Although a probability for minor injury was predicted for all cases, it is expected that the addition of energy-absorbing floor structure and seats would greatly diminish the probability of injury.

Fasanella, Edwin L.↗
NASA NTRS1977

Iron - Whence it came, where it went

Determinations of the abundances of iron and related elements in the photosphere, chromosphere, and corona of the sun as well as in solar and galactic cosmic rays are reviewed and compared with abundances derived from meteoritic data. Observed solar system abundances are found to be in accord with predictions of nucleosynthesis under either hydrostatic or explosive conditions but cannot yet be used to define these processes uniquely. The distribution of iron among planets and meteorites can probably be adequately modelled by condensation and fragmentation under equilibrium conditions above about 700 K, but below that temperature it is likely that inhibited solid-state diffusion perturbed attainment of equilibrium. Pertinent factors which are presently unknown include the mechanism responsible for metal-silicate fractionation, the grain size achieved by metallic iron in the nebula, and whether iron-bearing silicate formed prior to accretion.

Kerridge, J. F.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Integrity of Ceramic Parts Predicted When Loads and Temperatures Fluctuate Over Time

Brittle materials are being used, and being considered for use, for a wide variety of high performance applications that operate in harsh environments, including static and rotating turbine parts for unmanned aerial vehicles, auxiliary power units, and distributed power generation. Other applications include thermal protection systems, dental prosthetics, fuel cells, oxygen transport membranes, radomes, and microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). In order for these high-technology ceramics to be used successfully for structural applications that push the envelope of materials capabilities, design engineers must consider that brittle materials are designed and analyzed differently than metallic materials. Unlike ductile metals, brittle materials display a stochastic strength response because of the combination of low fracture toughness and the random nature of the size, orientation, and distribution of inherent microscopic flaws. This plus the fact that the strength of a component under load may degrade over time because of slow crack growth means that a probabilistic-based life-prediction methodology must be used when the tradeoffs of failure probability, performance, and useful life are being optimized. The CARES/Life code (which was developed at the NASA Glenn Research Center) predicts the probability of ceramic components failing from spontaneous catastrophic rupture when these components are subjected to multiaxial loading and slow crack growth conditions. Enhancements to CARES/Life now allow for the component survival probability to be calculated when loading and temperature vary over time.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Coherent structures and studies of perturbed and unperturbed jets

A review of known characteristics, experimental and numerical techniques, and research directions of large scale coherent structures in perturbed and unperturbed jets is presented. Attention is given to structures caused by controlled excitations, the relationship between artificially induced and natural structures, and the effects of initial and boundary conditions on structures. Studies of the coherent structures in a jet near field are explored, together with distortions described by the Taylor hypothesis, the application of the hypothesis to turbulent shear, and the dependence of the most probable coherent structure on the Reynolds number and initial conditions. Additional examination is made of jet near and far fields in the absence of excitation. It is suggested that the predominance of coherent structures in fully developed flows is probably exaggerated.

Hussain, A. K. M. F.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Effects of chronic acceleration on body composition

Studies of the centrifugation of adult rats showed an unexpected decrease in the mass of fat-free muscle and bone, in spite of the added load induced by centrifugation. It is suggested that the lower but constant fat-free body mass was probably regulated during centrifugation. Rats placed in weightless conditions for 18.5 days gave indirect but strong evidence that the muscle had increased in mass. Other changes in the rats placed in weightless conditions included a smaller fraction of skeletal mineral, a smaller fraction of water in the total fat-free body, and a net shift of fluid from skin to viscera. Adult rats centrifuged throughout the post-weaning growth period exhibited smaller masses of bone and central nervous system (probably attributable to slower growth of the total body), and a larger mass of skin than controls at 1 G. Efforts at simulating the effects of weightlessness or centrifugation on the body composition of rats by regimens at terrestrial gravity were inconclusive.

Pitts, G. C.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Semiclassical theory of unimolecular dissociation induced by a laser field

A semiclassical nonperturbative theory of direct photodissociation in a laser field is developed in which photon absorption and dissociation are treated in a unified fashion. This is achieved by visualizing nuclear dynamics as a representative particle moving on electronic-field surfaces. Methods are described for calculating dissociation rates and probabilities by Monte Carlo selection of initial conditions and integration of classical trajectories on these surfaces. This unified theory reduces to the golden rule expression in the weak-field and short-time limits, and predicts nonlinear behavior, i.e., breakdown of the golden rule expression in intense fields. Field strengths above which lowest-order perturbation theory fails to work have been estimated for some systems. Useful physical insights provided by the electronic-field representation have been illustrated. Intense field effects are discussed which are amenable to experimental observation. The semiclassical methods used here are also applicable to multiple-surface dynamics in fieldfree unimolecular and bimolecular reactions.

Yuan, J.-M.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Lonar crater glasses and high-magnesium australites - Trace element volatilization and meteoritic contamination

Radiochemical neutron activation analysis was used to detect six siderophile elements (Ni, Re, Os, Pd, Ir and Au) and three volatile elements (Zn, Se and Cd) in two basalts, a pumice and three impact glasses from Lonar crater, India, and in six high-magnesium australites. Significant depletions in Re and Se with respect to the parent basalts were found in the Lonar glasses. These depletions, apparently correlated with the degree of shock, are probably due to volatilization under the oxidizing conditions characteristic of earth. One of the australites is substantially enriched in siderophiles relative to the level of these elements in the other five tektites. The element patterns in the australites resemble those of the carbonaceous or cometary component of an Apollo 16 soil.

Morgan, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Primordial heating of asteroidal parent bodies

Most meteorites show evidence of thermal processing either because of metamorphic changes or as a result of melting and differentiation. Proposed mechanisms for supplying this energy generally rely upon short-lived radioisotopes or electrical induction, though accretion is sometimes mentioned, and more exotic models have been discussed. Interest in isotopic heating has been heightened by the discovery of Al-26 in Allende inclusions and also by the proposal that a lunar core and dynamo resulted from the radioactive decay of superheavy elements during the early solar system. Electrical induction as a heat source can be scaled to a broad range of solar system conditions, but corroborative evidence for these conditions is inconclusive. The accretion mechanism is probably not viable for the asteroidal and meteorite parent bodies, because the high kinetic energy requirement is inconsistent with the formation of the objects and their regoliths in the presence of a weak gravitational field.

Sonett, C. P.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Role of immobilization of irradiated rats in the protective effect of bone marrow shielding

Rats were exposed to X-radiation to study the influence of immobilization and shielding of part of bone marrow during exposure on survival. It is concluded that (1) the beneficial effect of the stress factor (created by the immobilization of rats during exposure) can aggregate with the effect of bone marrow shielding and, under certain conditions, imitate the latter; and (2) the probability of the protective effect of immobilization should be taken into account when assessing the influence of bone marrow shielding.

Gronskaya, N. F.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Influence of maneuverability on helicopter combat effectiveness

A computational procedure employing a stochastic learning method in conjunction with dynamic simulation of helicopter flight and weapon system operation was used to derive helicopter maneuvering strategies. The derived strategies maximize either survival or kill probability and are in the form of a feedback control based upon threat visual or warning system cues. Maneuverability parameters implicit in the strategy development include maximum longitudinal acceleration and deceleration, maximum sustained and transient load factor turn rate at forward speed, and maximum pedal turn rate and lateral acceleration at hover. Results are presented in terms of probability of skill for all combat initial conditions for two threat categories.

Falco, M.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Membrane lipids and the origin of life

The current state of knowledge regarding the development of biological systems is briefly reviewed. At a crucial stage concerning the evolution of such systems, the mechanisms leading to more complex structures must have evolved within the confines of a protected microenvironment, similar to those provided by the contemporary cell membranes. The major components found normally in biomembranes are phospholipids. The structure of the biomembrane is examined, and attention is given to questions concerning the availability of the structural components which are necessary in the formation of primitive lipid membranes. Two approaches regarding the study of protomembranes are discussed. The probability of obtaining ether lipids under prebiotic conditions is considered, taking into account the formation of cyclic and acyclic isoprenoids by the irradiation of isoprene with UV.

Oro, J.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Vector Lyapunov Functions for Stochastic Interconnected Systems

Theoretical paper presents set of sufficient conditions for asymptotic and exponential stability with probability 1 for class of stochastic interconnected systems. Theory applicable to complicated, large-scale mechanical or electrical systems, and, for several design problems, it reduces computational difficulty by relating stability criteria to fundamental structural features of system.

Boussalis, D.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Simultaneous 2 and 6 centimeter wavelength observations of a solar flare using the VLA

VLA observations of a solar active region and a flare are discussed. The event was observed at wavelengths of 2 and 6 cm simultaneously. Radio maps prior to the flare delineate the most important magnetic structures in the region. Interaction between these structures apparently led to preheating of plasma above the active region some 30 minutes prior to the flare. The 2 and 6 cm flare positions were coincident, and the time profiles of the burst at the two wavelengths were almost identical, implying that the same population of electrons was responsible for emission at the two wavelengths. Emission was probably nonthermal gyrosynchrotron radiation, and the physical conditions in the burst source are derived using this assumption.

Kundu, M. R.↗