Results for “conditional probability” — Page 15

NASA NTRS2012

Improvement of GRCop-84 Through the Addition of Zirconium

GRCop-84 (Cu-8 at.% Cr-4 at.% Nb) has excellent strength, creep resistance, low cycle fatigue (LCF) life and stability at elevated temperatures. It suffers in comparison to many commercially available precipitation-strengthened alloys below 500 C (932 F). It was observed that the addition of Zr consistently improved the mechanical properties of Cu-based alloys especially below 500 C. In an effort to improve the low temperature properties of GRCop-84, 0.35 wt.% Zr was added to the alloy. Limited tensile, creep, and LCF testing was conducted to determine if improvements occur. The results showed some dramatic increases in the tensile and creep properties at the conditions tested with the probability of additional improvements being possible through cold working. LCF testing at room temperature did not show an improvement, but improvements might occur at elevated temperatures.

Ellis, David L.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Neural Network Back-Propagation Algorithm for Sensing Hypergols

Fast, continuous detection of a wide range of hazardous substances simultaneously is needed to achieve improved safety for personnel working with hypergolic fuels and oxidizers, as well as other hazardous substances, with a requirement for such detection systems to warn personnel immediately upon the sudden advent of hazardous conditions, with a high probability of detection and a low false alarm rate. The primary purpose of this software is to read the voltage outputs from voltage dividers containing carbon nano - tube sensors as a variable resistance leg, and to recognize quickly when a leak has occurred through recognizing that a generalized pattern change in resistivity of a carbon nanotube sensor has occurred upon exposure to dangerous substances, and, further, to identify quickly just what substance is present through detailed pattern recognition of the shape of the response provided by the carbon nanotube sensor.

Perotti, Jose↗

NASA NTRS2013

Alternate Methods in Refining the SLS Nozzle Plug Loads

Numerical analysis has shown that the SLS nozzle environmental barrier (nozzle plug) design is inadequate for the prelaunch condition, which consists of two dominant loads: 1) the main engines startup pressure and 2) an environmentally induced pressure. Efforts to reduce load conservatisms included a dynamic analysis which showed a 31% higher safety factor compared to the standard static analysis. The environmental load is typically approached with a deterministic method using the worst possible combinations of pressures and temperatures. An alternate probabilistic approach, utilizing the distributions of pressures and temperatures, resulted in a 54% reduction in the environmental pressure load. A Monte Carlo simulation of environmental load that used five years of historical pressure and temperature data supported the results of the probabilistic analysis, indicating the probabilistic load is reflective of a 3-sigma condition (1 in 370 probability). Utilizing the probabilistic load analysis eliminated excessive conservatisms and will prevent a future overdesign of the nozzle plug. Employing a similar probabilistic approach to other design and analysis activities can result in realistic yet adequately conservative solutions.

Burbank, Scott↗

NASA NTRS2019

Toward Ultralight High Strength Structural Materials via Collapsed Carbon Nanotube Bonding

The growing commercial availability of carbon nanotube (CNT) macro-assemblies such as sheet and yarn is making their use in structural composite components increasingly feasible. However, the mechanical properties of these materials continue to trail those of state-of-the-art carbon fiber composites due to relatively weak inter-tube load transfer. Forming covalent links between adjacent CNTs promises to mitigate this problem, but it has proven difficult in practice to introduce them chemically within densified and aligned CNT materials due to their low permeability. To avoid this limitation, this work explores the combination of pulsed electrical current, temperature, and pressure to introduce inter-CNT bonds. Reactive molecular dynamics simulations identify the most probable locations, configurations, and conditions for inter-nanotube bonds to form. This process is shown to introduce covalent linkages within the CNT material that manifest as improved macroscale mechanical properties. The magnitude of this effect increases with increasing levels of prealignment of the CNT material, promising a new synthesis pathway to ultralight structural materials with specific strengths and stiffnesses exceeding 1 and 100 GPa/(g/cu.cm), respectively.

Jensen, Benjamin D.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Do Better Satellite Precipitation Algorithms Improve Landslide Hazard Assessment?

Satellites make it possible to estimate precipitation in near real time. Given the challenges of achieving global coverage by other means, these data are used widely. However, few systems for landslide hazard assessment rely on satellite precipitation estimates. This could be due in part to perceptions of accuracy, although latency, spatial resolution, and other factors may also be important. We test whether recent changes to data streams from the Global Precipitation Measurement mission (GPM) have improved its potential for use in landslide prediction. Specifically, we examine data produced by the Integrated Multi-satellitERetrievals for the GPM (IMERG) algorithm, which was upgraded to version 7 this year. IMERG relies upon other algorithms, including the Goddard Profiling Algorithm (GPROF) and the GPM Combined Radar-Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA). Many changes have been made during the switch from IMERG version 6 to version 7. These include upgrading CORRA and GPROF to version 7, to improve the accuracy of precipitation in frozen, mountainous, and coastal areas. The measured intensity of some storms has been enhanced with a new algorithm, the Scheme for Histogram Adjustment with Ranked Precipitation Estimates in the Neighborhood. Combined with many others, these changes to IMERG should improve its utility for landslide hazard assessment in a variety of contexts. To test this idea, we retrain the global Landslide Hazard Assessment for Situational Awareness (LHASA) model twice—first with data from IMERG version 6B and second with 7B. Since current daily rainfall is the most important variable in determining outcomes predicted by LHASA, it should reflect changes made to that input. First, we grid the landslides at a daily, thirty-arcsecond resolution. This serves as the response variable. At each of these sites current and antecedent rainfall are extracted, along with antecedent snow mass and soil moisture, slope, and PGA. In addition, one million grid cells are selected at random points to represent conditions under which landslides (probably) do not occur. After merging these data, we hold back 20% of the dataset for validation purposes and train a machine-learning model with the rest. We assess both the model’s overall ability to identify landslides and its ability to predict specific large landslide disasters.

Thomas A Stanley↗

NASA NTRS1992

Survival of microorganisms in smectite clays - Implications for Martian exobiology

The survival of Baccillus subtilis, Azotobacter chroococcum, and the enteric bacteriophage MS2 has been examined in clays representing terrestrial (Wyoming type montmorillonite) and Martian (Fe3+ montmorillonite) soils exposed to terrestrial and Martian environmental conditions of temperature and atmospheric composition and pressure. An important finding is that MS2 survived simulated Mars conditions better than the terrestrial environment, probably owing to stabilization of the virus caused by the cold and dry conditions of the simulated Mars environment. This finding, the first published indication that viruses may be able to survive in Mars-type soils, may have important implications for future missions to Mars.

Moll, Deborah M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Non-commutative disintegrations: Existence and uniqueness in finite dimensions

Motivated by advances in categorical probability, we introduce non-commutative almost everywhere (a.e.) equivalence and disintegrations in the setting of C*-algebras. We show that C*-algebras (resp. W*-algebras) and a.e. equivalence classes of 2-positive (resp. positive) unital maps form a category. We prove non-commutative disintegrations are a.e. unique whenever they exist. We provide an explicit characterization for when disintegrations exist in the setting of finite-dimensional C*-algebras, and we give formulas for the associated disintegrations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1985

Regional landform thresholds

Remote sensing technology allows us to recognize manifestations of regional thresholds, especially in the spatial characteristics of process agents. For example, a change in river channel pattern over a short distance reflects a threshold alteration in the physical controls of discharge and/or sediment. It is, therefore, a valuable indication of conditions as they exist. However, we probably will have difficulty determining whether the systemic parameters are now close to threshold conditions at which a different change will occur. This, of course, is a temporal and magnitude problem which is difficult to solve from the spatial characteristics.

Ritter, D. F.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Probabilistic analysis of air carrier accidents

In order to estimate the potential risks due to carbon fibers (CF) released from aircraft accidents, it was necessary to quantify the probability of an accident or incident at a major hub airport. This probability was contingent upon various conditions surrounding the incident including the phase of operation, aircraft type, and the weather conditions. The type of accident predicted was categorized according to its location relative to the runway and the severity of damage sustained. The methodology utilized to estimate the probability of a specific type of accident is outlined and the various models that were developed in the course of this work are described.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2006

Performance and Reliability of Solid Tantalum Capacitors at Cryogenic Conditions

Performance of different types of solid tantalum capacitors was evaluated at room and low temperatures, down to 15 K. The effect of temperature on frequency dependencies of capacitance, effective series resistances (ESR), leakage currents, and breakdown voltages has been investigated and analyzed. To assess thermo-mechanical robustness of the parts, several groups of loose capacitors and those soldered on FR4 boards were subjected to multiple (up to 500) temperature cycles between room temperature and 77 K. Experiments and mathematical modeling have shown that degradation in tantalum capacitors at low temperatures is mostly due to increasing resistance of the manganese cathode layer, resulting in substantial decrease of the roll-off frequency. Absorption currents follow a power law, I approximately t(sup -m), with the exponent m varying from 0.8 to 1.1. These currents do not change significantly at cryogenic conditions and the value of the exponent remains the same down to 15 K. Variations of leakage currents with voltage can be described by Pool-Frenkel and Schottky mechanisms of conductivity, with the Schottky mechanism prevailing at cryogenic conditions. Breakdown voltages of tantalum capacitors increase and the probability of scintillations decreases at cryogenic temperatures. However, breakdown voltages measured during surge current testing decrease at liquid nitrogen (LN) compared to room-temperature conditions. Results of temperature cycling suggest that tantalum capacitors are capable of withstanding multiple exposures to cryogenic conditions, but the probability of failures varies for different part types.

Teverovsky, Alexander↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluating Tropical Precipitation Relations in CMIP6 Models with ARM Data

Abstract A set of diagnostics based on simple, statistical relationships between precipitation and the thermodynamic environment in observations is implemented to assess phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) model behavior with respect to precipitation. Observational data from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) permanent field observational sites are augmented with satellite observations of precipitation and temperature as an observational baseline. A robust relationship across observational datasets between column water vapor (CWV) and precipitation, in which conditionally averaged precipitation exhibits a sharp pickup at some critical CWV value, provides a useful convective onset diagnostic for climate model comparison. While a few models reproduce an appropriate precipitation pickup, most models begin their pickup at too low CWV and the increase in precipitation with increasing CWV is too weak. Convective transition statistics compiled in column relative humidity (CRH) partially compensate for model temperature biases—although imperfectly since the temperature dependence is more complex than that of column saturation. Significant errors remain in individual models and weak pickups are generally not improved. The conditional-average precipitation as a function of CRH can be decomposed into the product of the probability of raining and mean precipitation during raining times (conditional intensity). The pickup behavior is primarily dependent on the probability of raining near the transition and on the conditional intensity at higher CRH. Most models roughly capture the CRH dependence of these two factors. However, compensating biases often occur: model conditional intensity that is too low at a given CRH is compensated in part by excessive probability of precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Artemis IV

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D Hilmers↗

NASA NTRS2024

Preliminary Medical Risk Estimates and Clinical Capability Needs for Late Artemis Missions

BACKGROUND Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in- mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT v1.0 improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 119 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. METHODOLOGY: This abstract will present IMPACT estimates of medical system risk and clinical capability needs for the Artemis IV mission. Artemis IV is currently scheduled for 2026 and will visit the Gateway space station in lunar orbit prior to the second lunar landing of the Artemis program. The baseline Artemis IV mission that was modeled was 28 days in duration with phases including Orion outbound, 4 days on the Gateway space station in lunar orbit, 2 crew on the surface of the Moon for approximately one week, an additional 5 days on Gateway, and then return to Earth. This baseline was compared to two alternative 34-day design reference missions (DRMs) that shifted the lunar sortie earlier or later in the mission profile. Assumptions included 2 female and 2 male crew and a notional medical system mass of 25 kg. Medical system risk estimates include loss of crew life (LOCL), consideration of medical evacuation (known as return to definitive care – RTDC), and an estimate of crew time lost due to medical conditions (Task Time Lost – TTL). The presentation will also describe the medical conditions that are the greatest drivers of risk as well as the clinical capabilities and resources that have the largest effect on risk. RESULTS: All three DRMs had very low probability of LOCL from medical conditions, primarily due to short duration. RTDC was also similar across the DRMs. In contrast, TTL was higher in the early lunar sortie DRM due to earlier occurrence of EVA-related medical conditions. Taken as a whole, there was no clinically significant difference in medical risk across the three missions. Results for clinical capabilities and an example medical equipment list will be discussed but were similar across DRMs.

D. Hilmers↗

NASA NTRS1980

Probabilistic cluster labeling of imagery data

The problem of obtaining the probabilities of class labels for the clusters using spectral and spatial information from a given set of labeled patterns and their neighbors is considered. A relationship is developed between class and clusters conditional densities in terms of probabilities of class labels for the clusters. Expressions are presented for updating the a posteriori probabilities of the classes of a pixel using information from its local neighborhood. Fixed-point iteration schemes are developed for obtaining the optimal probabilities of class labels for the clusters. These schemes utilize spatial information and also the probabilities of label imperfections. Experimental results from the processing of remotely sensed multispectral scanner imagery data are presented.

Chittineni, C. B.↗

NASA NTRS1972

Chilldown study of the single stage inducer test rig

Of the six chilldown tests, data from only one could be used for evaluation. During the rest of the chilldown tests, there was leakage hydrogen flow into the pump cavity prior to the initiation of the chilldown test. In all of the tests the hydrogen condition into the pump was probably 100% vapor. The data from this one test, therefore, can be used to compare only the single phase fluid correlation in the analytical pump chilldown model. In general, the actual pump chilled down much faster than predicted by the analytical pump model. There were insufficient data from the test to measure the pump flow rate and pump inlet fluid condition; therefore, these parameters were extrapolated based on related data which were available. However, even with the highest probable flow rate, the pump chilled faster than predicted.

Kimura, L. A.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Screening and Qualification of BME Feedthrough Capacitors for a Space Project

Surface mount technology feedthrough ceramic capacitors are gaining popularity in Hi-Rel systems due to small size and great filtering characteristics. In this work, BME feedthrough capacitors compliant with AEC-Q200 requirements have been evaluated, screened and qualified for a space project. Evaluation included analysis of the effect of post-soldering thermal shocks, temperature dependencies of leakage currents, distribution of breakdown voltages, assessments of high-current capability, and thermal resistance of the parts. The parts have been screened and qualified at conditions close to the military requirements for ceramic capacitors. No failures were detected during screening including burning-in, but two samples failed during monitored 2000 hour life testing at 125C and two times rated voltage. Failure analysis revealed manufacturing defects that required additional analysis of screening and qualification test conditions. Highly accelerated life testing (HALT) has been carried out to assess reliability acceleration factors and the probability of failure at the use conditions. An approach to selection of adequate burning-in and life test conditions is discussed.

Alexander Teverovsky↗

NASA NTRS2021

Screening and Qualification of BME Feedthrough Capacitors for a Space Project

Surface mount technology feedthrough ceramic capacitors are gaining popularity in Hi-Rel systems due to small size and great filtering characteristics. In this work, BME feedthrough capacitors compliant with AEC-Q200 requirements have been evaluated, screened and qualified for a space project. Evaluation included analysis of the effect of post-soldering thermal shocks, temperature dependencies of leakage currents, distribution of breakdown voltages, assessments of high-current capability, and thermal resistance of the parts. The parts have been screened and qualified at conditions close to the military requirements for ceramic capacitors. No failures were detected during screening including burning-in, but two samples failed during monitored 2000 hour life testing at 125C and two times rated voltage. Failure analysis revealed manufacturing defects that required additional analysis of screening and qualification test conditions. Highly accelerated life testing (HALT) has been carried out to assess reliability acceleration factors and the probability of failure at the use conditions. An approach to selection of adequate burning-in and life test conditions is discussed.

Alexander Teverovsky↗

NASA NTRS1990

An assessment of the conditions for critical velocity ionization at the weakly magnetized planets

It has been proposed that critical velocity ionization (CVI) may occur in the magnetosheaths of weakly magnetized planets where the solar wind flows through the planets' upper atmospheres. One can examine this possibility for Venus and Mars by using magnetosheath flow and exosphere models to determine whether the criteria for CVI are met. These criteria include Brenning's empirical condition on the cross-field flow velocity (it must not exceed the local magnetosonic velocity) and the 'Townsend condition' requiring that the integrated probability of impact ionization by a hot electron be greater than 1 along a streamline past the planet. Application of the Spreiter-Stahara gas dynamic flow model and the Nagy and coworkers' models for the exospheres lead to the conclusion that the conditions can be met in a limited region near Venus. However, evidence for CVI has not been identified in in-situ data. Since key details of the planet-solar wind interaction can be explained in terms of photoionization alone, other signatures of the process must be sought in the observations if the presence of CVI is to be positively inferred.

Luhmann, J. G.↗