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NASA NTRS2014

MARGInS: Model-Based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems

Under NASAs Constellation effort, the Exploration Technology Development Program funded research toward a system validation capability that applied machine learning and test-case generation techniques to the analysis of black-box system behavior. The behavior analysis capability scaled to spaces of hundreds of input parameters and tens of thousands of test cases. Aerospace systems at the vehicle level, especially those systems which contain some level of autonomy, are best described by hybrid and non-linear mathematics. Even simplified models of such systems need parameter dimensionalities in the hundreds or thousands of parameters in order to capture sufficient fidelity. The System Safety Assessments (such as those described in the SAE ARP 4761A Safety Assessment Process guidelines) for these systems are prone to errorinteractions between the vehicles subsystems are complex, and can display emergent behaviors. NASA captured this new analysis in the Model-based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems (MARGInS) tool and applied it to the Pad Abort 1 (PA-1) simulation as part of the independent validation and verification cycle before the PA-1 flight test in May of 2010. MARGInS evaluated the adherence of the high-fidelity simulation to its requirements, and deter- mined the margins to failure from the expected nominal input conditions. Following the PA-1 test, the capabilities within the MARGInS framework have been extended with sophisticated statistical and white-box test case generation techniques and applied to other NASA missions. The frame- work now includes a critical factors analysis that was applied to NASAs Orion simulation and design. NASAs Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate (ARMD) leveraged the existing MARGInS framework for work on aviation safety for civil transport vehicles and for research on autonomy issues. The NASA ARMD effort created a time series output prediction capability that has been used to characterize trajectories for a plane with an adaptive control system, and a safety boundary detection capability that has been applied to an air traffic control concept of operation for the Federal Aviation Administration. The statistical and machine- learning based techniques within MARGInS have been successfully combined with concolic execution to improve the coverage of a critical unit by driving system-level inputs. The use case driving the concolic execution and MARGInS integration was inspired by the Air France 447 disaster in which the loss of a critical functionality (the airspeed calculation from the pitot tubes) led to loss of the entire plane with the people aboard. To illustrate capabilities and limitations, we will highlight the analyses for the applications listed above. We will then discuss the future plans for MARGInS and its interfaces with other tools.

Validation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Psychoacoustic Measures for UAM noise in the Context of Ambient Sound

The noise component of future aircraft and operations from Urban Air Mobility (UAM) vehicles is widely recognized as a challenge to community acceptance. NASA’s RVLT (Revolutionary Vertical Lift Technology) program is currently supporting research in the area of human response and psychoacoustics in an effort to augment current metrics for traditional aircraft. This talk will review current work at NASA Ames’ Human Systems Integration Division to evaluate detection, annoyance, and acceptability of UAM sound, in the context of expected ambient sound conditions.

aircraft noise disturbance↗

NASA NTRS2016

Towards a Global Water Scarcity Risk Assessment Framework: Incorporation of Probability Distributions and Hydro-Climatic Variability

Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions increasingly put pressure on fresh water resources and are expected to aggravate water scarcity conditions towards the future. Despite numerous calls for risk-based water scarcity assessments, a global-scale framework that includes UNISDR's definition of risk does not yet exist. This study provides a first step towards such a risk based assessment, applying a Gamma distribution to estimate water scarcity conditions at the global scale under historic and future conditions, using multiple climate change and population growth scenarios. Our study highlights that water scarcity risk, expressed in terms of expected annual exposed population, increases given all future scenarios, up to greater than 56.2% of the global population in 2080. Looking at the drivers of risk, we find that population growth outweigh the impacts of climate change at global and regional scales. Using a risk-based method to assess water scarcity, we show the results to be less sensitive than traditional water scarcity assessments to the use of fixed threshold to represent different levels of water scarcity. This becomes especially important when moving from global to local scales, whereby deviations increase up to 50% of estimated risk levels.

Populations↗

NASA NTRS1975

Electrolyte concentration changes during operation of the nickel cadmium cell

The concentration and distribution of aqueous potassium hydroxide (KOH) electrolyte in a sealed nickel cadmium cell is considered. The reactions at both electrodes during charge and discharge involve the production or utilization of hydroxyl ion (OH) or water (H2O) which directly affects concentration. Changes in electrolyte concentration relative to the individual electrode reactions is discussed. Quantitative values are provided for the changes in concentration for 6, 12, and 20 ah cells with accepted quantities of precharge and accepted initial quantity of 31% aqueous KOH. Consideration is given to a more correct equation which includes net changes in hydroxyl concentration in addition to water. Also, expected concentrations of electrolyte in cells in the fully charged, 75% charged, 50% charged, 25% charged and discharged condition are calculated. The expected concentration changes for cells in the accelerated tests are also tabulated and compared with measured values. All calculations are made on the assumption that there are no side reactions. Various properties which depend on KOH concentration are listed. The variables include O2, H2, and Cd(OH)2 solubilities in addition to viscosity and conductivity.

Halpert, G.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The simulation of the geosynchronous Earth orbit plasma environment in Chamber A: An assessment of possible experimental investigations

The possible use of Chamber A for the replication or simulation of space plasma physics processes which occur in the geosynchronous Earth orbit (GEO) environment is considered. It is shown that replication is not possible and that scaling of the environmental conditions is required for study of the important instability processes. Rules for such experimental scaling are given. At the present time, it does not appear technologically feasible to satisfy these requirements in Chamber A. It is, however, possible to study and qualitatively evaluate the problem of vehicle charging at GEO. In particular, Chamber A is sufficiently large that a complete operational spacecraft could be irradiated by beams and charged to high potentials. Such testing would contribute to the assessment of the operational malfunctions expected at GEO and their possible correction. However, because of the many tabulated limitations in such a testing programs, its direct relevance to conditions expected in the geo environment remains questionable.

Bernstein, W.↗

NASA NTRS1995

Aerosol Radiative Effects: Expected Variations in Optical Depth Spectra and Climate Forcing, with Implications for Closure Experiment Strategies

We examine measurement strategies for reducing uncertainties in aerosol direct radiative forcing by focused experiments that combine surface, air, and space measurements. Particularly emphasized are closure experiments, which test the degree of agreement among different measurements and calculations of aerosol properties and radiative effects. By combining results from previous measurements of large-scale smokes, volcanic aerosols, and anthropogenic aerosols with models of aerosol evolution, we estimate the spatial and temporal variability in optical depth spectra to be expected in the Tropospheric Aerosol Radiative Forcing Observational Experiment (TARFOX, planned for summer 1996 off the Eastern U.S. seaboard). In particular, we examine the expected changes in the wavelength dependence of optical depth as particles evolve through nucleation, growth by condensation and coagulation, and removal via sedimentation. We then calculate the expected radiative climate forcing (i.e. change in net radiative flux) for typical expected aerosols and measurement conditions (e.g. solar elevations, surface albedos, radiometer altitudes). These calculations use new expressions for flux and albedo changes, which account not only for aerosol absorption, but also for instantaneous solar elevation angles and the dependence of surface albedo on solar elevation. These factors, which are usually ignored or averaged in calculations of global aerosol effects, can have a strong influence on fluxes measured in closure experiments, and hence must be accounted for in calculations if closure is to be convincingly tested. We compare the expected measurement signal to measurement uncertainties expected for various techniques in various conditions. Thereby we derive recommendations for measurement strategies that combine surface, airborne, and spaceborne measurements.

Russell, Philip B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Investigating the Complexity of Transitioning Separation Assurance Tools into NextGen Air Traffic Control

In a study, that introduced ground-based separation assurance automation through a series of envisioned transitional phases of concept maturity, it was found that subjective responses to scales of workload, situation awareness, and acceptability in a post run questionnaire revealed as-predicted results for three of the four study conditions but not for the third, Moderate condition. The trend continued for losses of separation (LOS) where the number of LOS events were far greater than expected in the Moderate condition. To offer an account of why the Moderate condition was perceived to be more difficult to manage than predicted, researchers examined the increase in amount and complexity of traffic, increase in communication load, and increased complexities as a result of the simulation's mix of aircraft equipage. Further analysis compared the tools presented through the phases, finding that controllers took advantage of the informational properties of the tools presented but shied away from using their decision support capabilities. Taking into account similar findings from other studies, it is suggested that the Moderate condition represented the first step into a "shared control" environment, which requires the controller to use the automation as a decision making partner rather than just a provider of information. Viewed in this light, the combination of tools offered in the Moderate condition was reviewed and some tradeoffs that may offset the identified complexities were suggested.

separation assurance↗

NASA NTRS1996

Reduction of the elevator illusion from continued hypergravity exposure and visual error-corrective feedback

Ten subjects served as their own controls in two conditions of continuous, centrifugally produced hypergravity (+2 Gz) and a 1-G control condition. Before and after exposure, open-loop measures were obtained of (1) motor control, (2) visual localization, and (3) hand-eye coordination. During exposure in the visual feedback/hypergravity condition, subjects received terminal visual error-corrective feedback from their target pointing, and in the no-visual feedback/hypergravity condition they pointed open loop. As expected, the motor control measures for both experimental conditions revealed very short lived underreaching (the muscle-loading effect) at the outset of hypergravity and an equally transient negative aftereffect on returning to 1 G. The substantial (approximately 17 degrees) initial elevator illusion experienced in both hypergravity conditions declined over the course of the exposure period, whether or not visual feedback was provided. This effect was tentatively attributed to habituation of the otoliths. Visual feedback produced a smaller additional decrement and a postexposure negative after-effect, possible evidence for visual recalibration. Surprisingly, the target-pointing error made during hypergravity in the no-visual-feedback condition was substantially less than that predicted by subjects' elevator illusion. This finding calls into question the neural outflow model as a complete explanation of this illusion.

NASA Program Space Physiology and Countermeasures↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Going beyond reliability to robustness and resilience in space systems

The words reliability, robustness, and resilience, are often used interchangeably to describe tough and dependable systems but the distinctions between them suggest how to design more serviceable space systems. Reliability is simply the quality of consistently performing well. A system that dependably meets its design requirements in the specified environments is reliable. The designers may not consider themselves responsible for failures under unanticipated conditions. Robustness is the capability of performing without failure under a wide range of conditions, which can go beyond the expected range to include possible off-nominal conditions. Resilience is the ability to recover from or adapt to damaging events, such as failures, accidents, external disruptions, and repurposing. Such changes are usually unanticipated. They often invalidate the usual operating assumptions and cause system failure. Reliability, robustness, and resilience describe dependable performance under increasingly difficult conditions, first the specified environment, then a wider possible environment, and finally unanticipated damaging events. These three are increasingly desirable and increasingly difficult to achieve. Engineering for resilience would design systems that can ignore or repair failures, survive accidents, and recover from disruptions. Increasing the resilience of space systems, the ability to perform after unanticipated events, would greatly increase space crew safety. Improving reliability and robustness can be done by dealing with known sources of problems, but improving resilience requires implementing a general approach to reducing the impact of unknown future events. Two contrasting approaches are reducing system complexity and adding supervisory control. The need for resilience has been claimed for decades but little has been accomplished. Systems designers assume that they understand requirements, technologies, designs, architectures, integration, testing, operations, and environments. The potential problems of changes, failures, accidents, unknown environments, and unknown unknowns are ignored. Systems designers are typically overconfident and ignore the need for robustness and resilience.

Harry W Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Going Beyond Reliability to Robustness and Resilience in Space Life Support Systems

The words reliability, robustness, and resilience are often used interchangeably to describe tough and dependable systems but the distinctions between them suggest how to design more serviceable space systems. Reliability is simply the quality of consistently performing well. A system that dependably meets its design requirements in the specified environment is reliable. The designers may not consider themselves responsible for failures under unanticipated conditions. Robustness is the capability of performing without failure under a wide range of conditions, which can go beyond the expected range to include possible off-nominal conditions. Resilience is the ability to recover from or adapt to unanticipated damaging events, such as failures, accidents, external disruptions, and repurposing. Such changes can invalidate the usual operating assumptions and cause system failure. Reliability, robustness, and resilience describe dependable performance under increasingly difficult conditions, first the specified environment, then a wider possible environment, and finally unanticipated damaging conditions. These three qualities are increasingly desirable and increasingly difficult to achieve. Engineering for resilience would design systems that can ignore or repair failures, survive accidents, and recover from unanticipated disruptions. Increasing the resilience of space systems would greatly increase space crew safety. Improving reliability and robustness requires dealing with known problems, but improving resilience requires implementing a general approach to reducing the impact of unknown future events. The need for robustness and resilience has been stated for decades but little has been done. Systems designers often assume that they understand everything they need to know. The potential failures caused by changes, failures, accidents, unknown environments, and unknown unknowns can be ignored. Such overconfidence can lead to neglect of reliability, robustness, and resilience.

Harry W. Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Going Beyond Reliability to Robustness and Resilience in Space Life Support Systems

Harry W. Jones↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Evolution of the Impact Evidence Library Methods – What We Learned

During fiscal years 2020-2022 NASA’s Human Research Program, Exploration Medical Capability Element has worked to source this evidence for the model. During the process several lessons learned have been identified and drive recommendations for future efforts. The ICL 1.0: Spaceflight Medical Operational expertise should be consulted regarding the addition of future conditions. A clinician experienced with the nuances of spaceflight is recommended to have a minimum of 20 hours per condition to adequately source the evidence. Condition definitions should be carefully crafted to maintain mutual exclusivity. Common side effects from medications, common and consequential incidental findings in laboratory studies, and consequential side effects of diagnostic and procedural capabilities should be considered for inclusion as unique conditions in future iterations of the ICL 1.0. Incidence: Spaceflight incidence, although based on small population sizes, is the gold standard. Terrestrial incidence should be applied cautiously. Probability of minor vs. severe cases of the condition: Data informing severity probability of the medical condition are nearly always terrestrial. Special attention should be paid to this metric as it drives outcomes in the model and terrestrial data often overestimate severity of expected cases in spaceflight. Condition duration: Three clinical phases currently exist in the model. They represent the time necessary for diagnosis, treatment/convalescence/recurrence, and the remaining duration of the mission after maximal recovery, respectively. Further subdivision of acute and convalescent treatment/recurrence is recommended. Probability of need for evacuation: Surrogates for “Return to Definitive Care” were chosen prior to data collection. In most cases these surrogates were “need for hospitalization” or “need for surgery.” For many conditions these may not be realistic drivers of “Return to Definitive Care” and should be re-examined. Probability of Crew Mortality: Terrestrial mortality data is difficult to apply to astronauts who, invariably, have less comorbidities than terrestrial subjects. It must be applied judiciously. The proportion of mission tasks impaired by the condition: “Task Impairment” was assigned to each condition prior to the condition duration data becoming available. Future efforts should assign Task Impairment as the final step in sourcing the evidence.

A.J. Kreykes↗

NASA NTRS1976

Curvature of the wind profile in the troposphere versus regions of CAT and non-CAT in the stratosphere

A discussion of the theoretical importance of the curvature of the wind profile to the amplitude of mountain waves is presented. Mechanisms favorable for clear air turbulence (CAT) are discussed in relation to such wave motions. It is shown that CAT encountered by the XB-70 aircraft in the stratosphere during expected mountain-wave conditions is related to the vertical gradient of curvature of the wind profile in the troposphere. Results indicate that 89% of the turbulent regions in the stratosphere occurred in expected mountain-wave areas and that 79% were located where the vertical gradient of curvature was positive in the 10-30,000 ft layer below. For the nonturbulent regions, 74% were outside expected mountain-wave areas and 98% of these occurred where the vertical gradient of curvature was negative. All the nonturbulent regions within expected mountain-wave areas occurred where the vertical gradient of curvature was negative.

Possiel, N.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Thermal Analysis and Testing of Candidate Materials for PAIDAE Inflatable Aeroshell

The Program to Advance Inflatable-Decelerators for Atmospheric Entry (PAIDAE) is a NASA project tasked with developing and evaluating viable inflatable-decelerator aeroshell geometries and materials. Thermal analysis of material layups supporting an inflatable aeroshell was completed in order to identify expected material response, failure times, and to establish an experimental test matrix to keep barrier layer materials from reaching critical temperature limits during thermal soak. Material layups were then tested in the 8- foot High Temperature Tunnel (8'HTT), where they were subjected to hypersonic aerothermal heating conditions, similar to those expected for a Mars entry. This paper presents a broad overview of the thermal analysis supporting multiple materials, and layup configurations tested in the 8'HTT at flight conditions similar to those that would be experienced during Mars entry trajectories. Direct comparison of TPS samples tested in the 8'HTT verify that the thermal model accurately predicted temperature profiles when there are up to four materials in the test layup. As the number of material layers in each test layup increase (greater than 4), the accuracy of the prediction decreases significantly. The inaccuracy of the model predictions for layups with more than four material layers is believed to be a result of the contact resistance values used throughout the model being inaccurate. In addition, the harsh environment of the 8'HTT, including hot gas penetrating through the material layers, could also be a contributing factor.

DelCorso, Joseph A.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Performance Effects of Display Incogruity in a Digital and Analog Clock Reading Task

In an era of increasing automation, it is important to design displays and input devices that minimize human error. In this context, information concerning the human response to the detection of incongruous information is important. Such incongruous information can be operationalized as unexpected (perhaps erroneous) information on which a decision by the human or operation by an automated system is based. In the aviation environment, decision making when faced with inadequate, incomplete, or incongruous information may occur in a failure scenario. An additional challenge facing the human operator in automated environments is maintaining alertness or vigilance. The vigilance issue is of particular concern as a factor that may interact with performance when faced with inadequate, incomplete, or incongruous information. From the literature on eye-scan behavior we know that the time spent looking at a particular display or indicator is a function of the type of information one is trying to discern from the display. For example, quick glances are all it takes for confirming that an indicator is in a normal position or range, whereas a continuous look of several seconds may be required for confirmation that a complex control input is having the desired effect. Important to consider is that while an extended look takes place, visual input from other sources may be missed. Much like an extended look, the interpretation of incongruous information may require extra time. The present experiment was designed to explore the performance consequences of a decision making task when incongruous information was presented. For this experiment a display incongruity was created on a subset of trials of a clock reading laboratory task. Display incongruity was made possible through presentation of 'impossible' times (e.g. 1:65 or 11:90). Subjects made 'same' 'different' decisions and keyboard responses to pairings of Analog-Analog (AA), Digital-Digital (DD), and Analog- Digital (AD), display combinations. For trials during which display incongruities were not presented, based on prior research comparing digital and analog clock displays, it would be expected that the Digital-Digital condition would result in the shortest response times and the Analog-Analog and Analog-Digital conditions would have longer response times. The performance consequence expected on trials with incongruous times would be very long response times.

J. Raymond Comstock, Jr.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Understanding Relationships Between Satellite, Model, and Ground-Based Surface Temperature Characterizations From Overcast to Clear Conditions in Support of Satellite Remote Sensing of Clouds and Radiation

Accurate and consistent global estimates of cloud coverage and their properties are fundamental to long-term Earth radiation budget (ERB) monitoring efforts like the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) project. Cloud detection algorithms often apply thresholding approaches to identify where clouds occur by comparing satellite-measured radiances with those that are expected under cloud-free conditions. In addition, once a cloud is detected, the derivation of cloud optical and microphysical properties also requires knowledge of the background radiances below the cloud. In the infrared, knowledge of the surface emissivity and the expected skin temperature under both cloudy and cloud-free conditions is needed. These traits are generally well known over the oceans. Over land, however, comparisons between satellite-derived land surface temperature (LST) with that characterized in numerical weather analyses reveal large differences in many parts of the world, often exceeding 5 K, which can lead to significant satellite cloud detection and cloud property retrieval errors. Furthermore, clouds have a dramatic influence on the LST, and therefore characterization of that model parameter also depends on the capability of the model to accurately resolve clouds. Thus, the LST characterized in models is, at times, a poor approximation for what would otherwise be observed, thereby impeding accurate satellite cloud retrievals. As a result, we seek to develop a more robust method for estimating the LST required for satellite cloud characterizations. This effort is accomplished through a combination of surface emission/air temperature relationship studies in all-sky conditions using ground measurement stations, along with deep neural network (DNN) estimates of expected LST under overcast and cloud-free conditions. We demonstrate that substituting DNN-predicted LST for that generated by numerical models can mitigate model-inherent diurnal dependencies and reduce overall bias and uncertainty relative to satellite/ground observations by 0.5–4 K and 0.5–2 K, respectively. It is expected that this work will lead to improved satellite cloud retrievals that enhance ERB monitoring efforts.

B Scarino↗

NASA NTRS1983

Cryogenic Fluid Management Experiment (CFME) trunnion verification testing

The Cryogenic Fluid Management Experiment (CFME) was designed to characterize subcritical liquid hydrogen storage and expulsion in the low-g space environment. The CFME has now become the storage and supply tank for the Cryogenic Fluid Management Facility, which includes transfer line and receiver tanks, as well. The liquid hydrogen storage and supply vessel is supported within a vacuum jacket to two fiberglass/epoxy composite trunnions which were analyzed and designed. Analysis using the limited available data indicated the trunnion was the most fatigue critical component in the storage vessel. Before committing the complete storage tank assembly to environmental testing, an experimental assessment was performed to verify the capability of the trunnion design to withstand expected vibration and loading conditions. Three tasks were conducted to evaluate trunnion integrity. The first determined the fatigue properties of the trunnion composite laminate materials. Tests at both ambient and liquid hydrogen temperatures showed composite material fatigue properties far in excess of those expected. Next, an assessment of the adequacy of the trunnion designs was performed (based on the tested material properties).

Bailey, W. J.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Ground test program for a full-size solar dynamic heat receiver

Test hardware, facilities, and procedures were developed to conduct ground testing of a full size, solar dynamic heat receiver in a partially simulated, low Earth orbit environment. The heat receiver was designed to supply 102 kW of thermal energy to a helium and xenon gas mixture continuously over a 94 minute orbit, including up to 36 minutes of eclipse. The purpose of the test program was to quantify the receiver thermodynamic performance, its operating temperatures, and thermal response to changes in environmental and power module interface boundary conditions. The heat receiver was tested in a vacuum chamber using liquid nitrogen cold shrouds and an aperture cold plate. Special test equipment were designed to provide the required ranges in interface boundary conditions that typify those expected or required for operation as part of the solar dynamic power module on the Space Station Freedom. The support hardware includes an infrared quartz lamp heater with 30 independently controllable zones and a closed Brayton cycle engine simulator to circulate and condition the helium xenon gas mixture. The test article, test support hardware, facilities, and instrumentation developed to conduct the ground test program are all described.

Sedgwick, L. M.↗