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At least 271 records · Page 15

A robust aerosol impact on clouds along the subtropical to tropical transition

Marine clouds undergo a transition from subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) to shallow cumulus (Cu) and eventually to deep convective (DC) systems as air masses advect from the subtropics towards the deep tropics. How aerosols modulate this Lagrangian cloud evolution remains largely uncertain. Here we use both 5 years of satellite observations mapped along 8 d Lagrangian trajectories and complementary large-eddy simulations from 9 initiation locations across the Northeast Pacific, Southeast Pacific, and Southeast Atlantic. This Lagrangian framework allows us to quantify the aerosol effect and its co-variability with meteorological conditions on cloud microphysics, macrophysics, and top-of-atmosphere radiation through the full Sc-Cu-DC transition. We show that increasing aerosol concentrations leads to deeper and more reflective clouds throughout this cloud transition. Examining the thermodynamic evolution along the trajectory indicates a well-known trend: enhanced moistening near the boundary-layer top and lower free troposphere under polluted conditions, suggesting that part of the co-variability between aerosol and meteorological conditions may be internally driven. The agreement between model simulations and satellite data alongside the multi-basin coherence of the results indicates that aerosols systematically amplify cloud depth and reflectivity during the subtropical–to–tropical cloud transition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mind-the-gap - Part III: Doppler velocity measurements from space

Convective motions and hydrometeors microphysical properties are highly sought-after parameters for evaluating atmospheric numerical models. With most of the Earth's surface covered by water, space-borne Doppler radars are ideal for acquiring such measurements at a global scale. While these systems have proven to be useful tools for retrieving cloud microphysical and dynamical properties from the ground, their adequacy, and specific requirements for spaceborne operation still need to be evaluated. Comprehensive forward simulations enable us to assess the advantages and drawbacks of six different Doppler radar architectures currently planned or under consideration by space agencies for the study of cloud dynamics. Radar performance is examined against state-of-the-art numerical model simulations of well-characterized shallow and deep, continental, and oceanic convective cases. Mean Doppler velocity (MDV) measurements collected at multiple frequencies (13, 35 and 94 GHz) provide complementary information in deep convective cloud systems. The high penetration capability of the 13-GHz radar enables to obtain a complete, albeit horizontally under-sampled, view of deep convective storms. The smaller instantaneous field of view (IFOV) of the 35-GHz radar captures more precise information about the location and size of convective updrafts above 5-8 km height of most systems which was determined is the portion of storms where the mass flux peak is typically located. Finally, the lower mean Doppler velocity uncertainty of displaced phase center antenna (DPCA) radars makes them an ideal system for studying microphysics in shallow convection and frontal systems, as well as ice and mixed-phase clouds. It is demonstrated that a 94-GHz DCPA system can achieve retrieval errors as low as 0.05-0.15 mm for raindrop volume-weighted mean diameter and 25% for rime fraction (for a -10 dBZ echo).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Parameterization of Vertical Profiles of Governing Microphysical Parameters of Shallow Cumulus Cloud Ensembles Using LES with Bin Microphysics

Shallow convection is a subgrid process in cloud-resolving models for which their grid box is larger than the size of small cumulus clouds (Cu). At the same time such Cu substantially affect radiation properties and thermodynamic parameters of the low atmosphere. The main microphysical parameters used for calculation of radiative properties of Cu in cloud-resolving models are liquid water content (LWC), effective droplet radius, and cloud fraction (CF). In this study, these parameters of fields of small, warm Cu are calculated using large-eddy simulations (LESs) performed using the System for Atmospheric Modeling (SAM) with spectral bin microphysics. Despite the complexity of microphysical processes, several fundamental properties of Cu were found. First, despite the high variability of LWC and droplet concentration within clouds and between different clouds, the volume mean and effective radii per specific level vary only slightly. Second, the values of effective radius are close to those forming during adiabatic ascent of air parcels from cloud base. These findings allow for characterization of a cloud field by specific vertical profiles of effective radius and of mean liquid water content, which can be calculated using the theoretical profile of adiabatic liquid water content and the droplet concentration at cloud base. Using the results of these LESs, a simple parameterization of cloud-field-averaged vertical profiles of effective radius and of liquid water content is proposed for different aerosol and thermodynamic conditions. These profiles can be used for calculation of radiation properties of Cu fields in large-scale models. The role of adiabatic processes in the formation of microstructure of Cu is discussed.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Vertical motions of the tropical convective cloud spectrum over Darwin, Australia

Three months of profiler observations from Darwin, Australia are separated into seven cloud types (shallow, mid‐level, and deep convective; weak and robust stratiform rain; and transitional and ice‐only anvil) to provide vertical velocity statistics on the full spectrum of tropical convective clouds over the course of a monsoon season. Consistent with past studies, convective updraughts increase in height and magnitude as the convective cloud height increases. Shallow/mid‐level/deep convection has a mean maximum value of 0.3 m s −1 at 3 km/0.6 m s −1 at 5 km/2.5 m s −1 at 8 km. Deep convective extremes approach 18 m s −1 above 8 km while downdraughts in all convective cloud types are maximum below 4 km. Stratiform vertical velocities are weaker and less varied than in active convection, with maximum mean values <0.25 m s −1 . However, stratiform rain regions associated with larger near‐surface reflectivities (and thus rain rates) have stronger mesoscale up‐ and downdraughts than weaker stratiform rain regions. Anvil cloud with little or no rain near the surface also exhibits mesoscale up‐ and downdraughts, but the vertical velocity profile is shifted up in height by at least 2 km. In addition, anvil updraughts were only 20–50% of the magnitudes in the stratiform rain region. Overall, the vertical motion statistics were similar across the pre‐, active and suppressed monsoon periods. The vertical velocity distributions for each cloud type were also generally consistent with the reflectivity distributions (i.e. the strongest updraughts were often linked to the largest reflectivities), allowing for some linkages between the dynamical and microphysical cloud properties. For example, strong updraughts above the 0 °C level in deep convection are associated with strongly sloping reflectivity profiles supporting the importance of cold rain growth processes, and stronger vertical motions are associated with stratiform rain that has a robust bright band.

Schumacher, Courtney↗

Precipitation Efficiency and Water Budget of Typhoon Fitow (2013): A Particle Trajectory Study

Here, the WRF Model is used to simulate the torrential rainfall of Typhoon Fitow (2013) over coastal areas of east China during its landfall. Data from the innermost model domain are used to trace trajectories of particles in three major 24-h accumulated rainfall centers using the Lagrangian flexible particle dispersion model (FLEXPART). Surface rainfall budgets and cloud microphysical budgets as well as precipitation efficiency are analyzed along the particles’ trajectories. The rainfall centers with high precipitation efficiency are associated with water vapor convergence, condensation, accretion of cloud water by raindrops, and raindrop loss/convergence. The raindrop loss/convergence over rainfall centers is supported by the raindrop gain/divergence over the areas adjacent to rainfall centers. Precipitation efficiency is mainly confirmed by hydrometeor loss/convergence. Hydrometeor loss/convergence corresponds to the hydrometeor flux convergence, which may be related to the increased vertical advection of hydrometeors in response to the upward motions and upward decrease of hydrometeors, whereas hydrometeor gain/divergence corresponds to the reduction in hydrometeor flux convergence, which may be associated with the decreased horizontal advection of hydrometeors in response to the zonal decrease in hydrometeors and easterly winds and the meridional increase in hydrometeors and southerly winds. The water vapor convergence and associated condensation do not show consistent relationships with orographic lifting all the time.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geostationary Satellite Retrievals with Irradiances and Cloud Properties / Processed Data

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) records sky brightness temperatures and irradiances at several wavelengths. From these the cloud microphysical and optical properties can be routinely retrieved. These properties are derived using the technique proposed by Minnis et al. 2020, and is similar to the technique used for deriving cloud properties from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The derived GOES properties for the duration of the second Wind Forecasting Improvement Project (WFIP2) within the domain are reported here. Nominally the retrieved dataset has a 30- minute temporal and a 9 km spatial resolution.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

An overview of the ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) project: aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions in the southeast Atlantic basin

Southern Africa produces almost a third of the Earth's biomass burning (BB) aerosol particles, yet the fate of these particles and their influence on regional and global climate is poorly understood. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) is a 5-year NASA EVS-2 (Earth Venture Suborbital-2) investigation with three intensive observation periods designed to study key atmospheric processes that determine the climate impacts of these aerosols. During the Southern Hemisphere winter and spring (June-October), aerosol particles reaching 3-5 km in altitude are transported westward over the southeast Atlantic, where they interact with one of the largest subtropical stratocumulus (Sc) cloud decks in the world. The representation of these interactions in climate models remains highly uncertain in part due to a scarcity of observational constraints on aerosol and cloud properties, as well as due to the parameterized treatment of physical processes. Three ORACLES deployments by the NASA P-3 aircraft in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018 (totaling ~350 science flight hours), augmented by the deployment of the NASA ER-2 aircraft for remote sensing in September 2016 (totaling ~100 science flight hours), were intended to help fill this observational gap. ORACLES focuses on three fundamental science themes centered on the climate effects of African BB aerosols: (a) direct aerosol radiative effects, (b) effects of aerosol absorption on atmospheric circulation and clouds, and (c) aerosol–cloud microphysical interactions. This paper summarizes the ORACLES science objectives, describes the project implementation, provides an overview of the flights and measurements in each deployment, and highlights the integrative modeling efforts from cloud to global scales to address science objectives. Significant new findings on the vertical structure of BB aerosol physical and chemical properties, chemical aging, cloud condensation nuclei, rain and precipitation statistics, and aerosol indirect effects are emphasized, but their detailed descriptions are the subject of separate publications. The main purpose of this paper is to familiarize the broader scientific community with the ORACLES project and the dataset it produced.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Training the next generation of researchers in exploring cloud dynamics and microphysics using millimeter-wavelength radars

Millimeter-wavelength radars, with their ability to collect observations and high spatiotemporal resolution, have become cornerstone instruments for investigating cloud and precipitation microphysics and dynamics in the last two decades. Since the1990s the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program has invested in mm-wavelength radar technology progressively adding scanning capability, additional frequencies and polarimetric capability. In addition, atmospheric observatories including those technologies have been operated overseas. Those technologies have enhanced our understanding of cloud and precipitation processes. Only a few universities operate those instruments and use them for educational purposes. The central role of mm- wavelength radars and their role will be further highlighted in the next decade. NASA and other international space agencies are planning to launch millimeter-wavelength (i.e., Ku, Ka, W, G- bands) Doppler radar in space to improve our understanding of cloud and precipitation formation, evolution and their impacts on global climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Conditions for super-adiabatic droplet growth after entrainment mixing

Abstract. Cloud droplet response to entrainment and mixing between a cloud and its environment is considered, accounting for subsequent droplet growth during adiabatic ascent following a mixing event. The vertical profile for liquid water mixing ratio after a mixing event is derived analytically, allowing the reduction to be predicted from the mixing fraction and from the temperature and humidity for both the cloud and environment. It is derived for the limit of homogeneous mixing. The expression leads to a critical height above the mixing level: at the critical height the cloud droplet radius is the same for both mixed and unmixed parcels, and the critical height is independent of the updraft velocity and mixing fraction. Cloud droplets in a mixed parcel are larger than in an unmixed parcel above the critical height, which we refer to as the “super-adiabatic” growth region. Analytical results are confirmed with a bin microphysics cloud model. Using the model, we explore the effects of updraft velocity, aerosol source in the environmental air, and polydisperse cloud droplets. Results show that the mixed parcel is more likely to reach the super-adiabatic growth region when the environmental air is humid and clean. It is also confirmed that the analytical predictions are matched by the volume-mean cloud droplet radius for polydisperse size distributions. The findings have implications for the origin of large cloud droplets that may contribute to onset of collision–coalescence in warm clouds.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Microphysics Dominates Sub‐Cloud Rain Evaporation in Trade Cumuli Over Barbados

This study investigates the microphysical and thermodynamic influences on North Atlantic trade-cumulus rain evaporation in the sub-cloud layer over Barbados from January to November 2020. Using radar observations and a 1-D model, the results reveal that microphysical properties, namely geometric mean diameter (D g ) and raindrop concentration, primarily control evaporation processes under conditions of limited thermodynamic variability. Thermodynamic factors like cloud base height and relative humidity exert a smaller influence due to their narrow observed ranges. Small D g leads to rapid increases in rain evaporation fraction (REF), as small drops evaporate completely, while larger D g yields slower, more gradual REF changes. Frequent weak-rain cases reduce the mean evaporation flux, whereas infrequent intense-rain events substantially enhance it. These findings highlight the pivotal role of microphysical variability in shaping sub-cloud evaporation in this trade cumulus regime, while thermodynamic effects may be more important in other environments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Polluting of Winter Convective Clouds upon Transition from Ocean Inland Over Central California: Contrasting Case Studies

In-situ aircraft measurements of aerosol chemical and cloud microphysical properties were conducted during the CalWater campaign in February and March 2011 over the Sierra Nevada Mountains and the coastal waters of central California. The main objective was to elucidate the impacts of aerosol properties on clouds and precipitation forming processes. In order to accomplish this, we compared contrasting cases of clouds that ingested aerosols from different sources. The results showed that clouds containing pristine oceanic air had low cloud drop concentrations and started to develop rain 500 m above their base. This occurred both over the ocean and over the Sierra Nevada, mainly in the early morning when the radiatively cooled stable continental boundary layer was decoupled from the cloud base. Supercooled rain dominated the precipitation that formed in growing convective clouds in the pristine air, up to the -21°C isotherm level. A contrasting situation was documented in the afternoon over the foothills of the Sierra Nevada, when the clouds ingested high pollution aerosol concentrations produced in the Central Valley. This led to slow growth of the cloud drop effective radius with height and suppressed and even prevented the initiation of warm rain while contributing to the development of ice hydrometeors in the form of graupel. Our results show that cloud condensation and ice nuclei were the limiting factors that controlled warm rain and ice processes, respectively, while the unpolluted clouds in the same air mass produced precipitation quite efficiently. These findings provide the motivation for deeper investigations into the nature of the aerosols seeding clouds.

central California↗

Thresholds for Atmospheric Convection in Amazonian Rainforests

The Amazon rainforest is known as the “Green Ocean” for its maritime-like convection and cloud microphysics during the wet season. Although previous studies suggest the dominant thermodynamic processes involved in deep convection may differ between land and ocean, a comprehensive understanding of the thermodynamics of Amazonian convection is lacking. Using 404,971 daytime precipitating cloud profiles from the CloudSat satellite, we observe a regime transition from congestus dominance to cumulonimbus dominance when convective available potential energy exceeds a threshold in Amazonia and also in shrublands, but not in oceanic regions. In addition, the cloud regime transition is linked to boundary layer moisture in the two continental regions, while it is linked to lower-free-tropospheric moisture in the oceanic region. As the dry season progresses in Amazonia and modifies the free-tropospheric stability, a moderate plant water stress and increased incoming solar energy facilitate the initiation of deep convection and the onset of the wet season.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Opinion: A critical evaluation of the evidence for aerosol invigoration of deep convection

Deep convective updraft invigoration via indirect effects of increased aerosol number concentration on cloud microphysics is frequently cited as a driver of correlations between aerosol and deep convection properties. Here, we critically evaluate the theoretical, modeling, and observational evidence for warm- and cold-phase invigoration pathways. Though warm-phase invigoration is plausible and theoretically supported via lowering of the supersaturation with increased cloud droplet concentration in polluted conditions, the significance of this effect depends on substantial supersaturation changes in real-world convective clouds that have not been observed. Much of the theoretical support for cold-phase invigoration depends on unrealistic assumptions of instantaneous freezing and unloading of condensate in growing, isolated updrafts. When applying more realistic assumptions, impacts on buoyancy from enhanced latent heating via fusion in polluted conditions are largely canceled by greater condensate loading. Many foundational observational studies supporting invigoration have several fundamental methodological flaws that render their findings incorrect or highly questionable. Thus, much of the evidence for invigoration has come from numerical modeling, but different models and setups have produced a vast range of results. Furthermore, modeled aerosol impacts on deep convection are rarely tested for robustness, and microphysical biases relative to observations persist, rendering many results unreliable for application to the real world. Without clear theoretical, modeling, or observational support, and given that enervation rather than invigoration may occur for some deep convective regimes and environments, it is entirely possible that the overall impact of cold-phase invigoration is negligible. Substantial mesoscale variability of dominant thermodynamic controls on convective updraft strength coupled with substantial updraft and aerosol variability in any given event are poorly quantified by observations and present further challenges to isolating aerosol effects. Observational isolation and quantification of convective invigoration by aerosols is also complicated by limitations of available cloud condensation nuclei and updraft speed proxies, aerosol correlations with meteorological conditions, and cloud impacts on aerosols. Furthermore, many cloud processes, such as entrainment and condensate fallout, modulate updraft strength and aerosol–cloud interactions, varying with cloud life cycle and organization, but these processes remain poorly characterized. Considering these challenges, recommendations for future observational and modeling research related to aerosol invigoration of deep convection are provided.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

How Do Microphysical Processes Influence Large-Scale Precipitation Variability and Extremes?

Convection permitting simulations using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) are used to examine how microphysical processes affect large-scale precipitation variability and extremes. An episode of the Madden-Julian Oscillation is simulated using MPAS-A with a refined region at 4-km grid spacing over the Indian Ocean. It is shown that cloud microphysical processes regulate the precipitable water (PW) statistics. Because of the non-linear relationship between precipitation and PW, PW exceeding a certain critical value (PWcr) contributes disproportionately to precipitation variability. However, the frequency of PW exceeding PWcr decreases rapidly with PW, so changes in microphysical processes that shift the column PW statistics relative to PWcr even slightly have large impacts on precipitation variability. Furthermore, precipitation variance and extreme precipitation frequency are approximately linearly related to the difference between the mean and critical PW values. Thus observed precipitation statistics could be used to directly constrain model microphysical parameters as this study demonstrates using radar observations from DYNAMO field campaign.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

High-Resolution LiDAR Observations for Coupled Effects of Dry-Air Entrainment and Haze-Cloud Interactions on Cloud Vertical Structure

This study demonstrates the high-resolution profiling of cloud microphysics in a laboratory chamber using Time-Correlated Single Photon Counting (TCSPC) LiDAR. We present a novel retrieval method to derive vertical extinction (𝜎) profiles, constrained by in situ measurements, to diagnose responses to dry-air entrainment. In clean clouds, the LiDAR signals and retrieved 𝜎 remain relatively uniform, with entrainment effects confined to the upper layer. In contrast, polluted clouds exhibit strong vertical variability and a transition to a water-vapor-limited state. Entrainment significantly enhances the haze number concentration (𝑁ℎ), particularly near the bottom, creating highly height-dependent extinction profiles for polluted clouds. Our results highlight the capability of high-resolution LiDAR in capturing fine-scale vertical inhomogeneities. This approach provides a robust framework for quantifying how aerosol loading modulates entrainment sensitivity, offering new insights into the transition between buffered and water-vapor-limited regimes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A variance-based decomposition and global sensitivity index method for uncertainty quantification: Application to retrieved ice cloud properties

This study develops a novel uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for cloud microphysical property retrievals using variance-based decomposition and global sensitivity index. In this UQ framework, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) ground-based observations, which are the inputs for the cloud retrieval studied here. The principal components (PCs) in the EOF expansion are parameterized as random input variables, and hence, the input dimension is greatly reduced (up to a factor of 50), allowing large ensemble of random samplings. The EOF expansion improves the accuracy of the uncertainty estimation by taking into account the cross correlations in the input data profiles. Here, this method enables a probabilistic representation of a retrieval process by adding normally distributed perturbations into PCs of sample means of input data profiles within a time window. Therefore, it effectively facilitates objective validation of climate models against cloud retrievals under a probabilistic framework for rigorous statistical inferences. Moreover, the variance-based global sensitivity index analysis, part of this method, attributes the output uncertainties to each individual source, thus providing directions for improving retrieval algorithms and observation strategies. For demonstration, we apply this method to quantify the uncertainties of the ARM program's baseline cloud retrieval algorithm for an ice cloud case observed at the Southern Great Plains site on 9 March 2000.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Exploratory Ice Nucleation Measurements at Oliktok Field Campaign Report

Ice nucleating particles (INPs)—such as mineral dust and bacteria (1)—are a crucial source of seeds for cloud ice crystal formation, and can subsequently impact cloud radiative properties, lifetime, and precipitation formation processes (2-4). The presence of such particles in the atmosphere can be rare, but large concentrations are not required to have substantial impacts on cloud microphysics (3). However, knowledge of INPs, particularly in the Arctic, is limited due to the dearth of measurements in time and space. It is especially important to evaluate the sources and efficiency of INPs in the Arctic due to the role mixed-phase clouds play in facilitating the surface energy budget and thus energy reaching the sea ice and snow surfaces (4, 5). The purpose of this campaign, called INPOP (Ice Nucleating Particles at Oliktok Point), is to address the issue of limited information of Arctic INPs by providing time- and size-resolved INP concentrations over the course of a 3-month springtime campaign. This period is subject to Arctic haze, whereby pollutants from mid-latitudes are frequently transported to the Arctic and influence the relatively clean Arctic atmosphere (6-9). One unique aspect of this study is that the measurements were conducted at the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility third ARM Mobile Facility (AMF3) in Oliktok Point, North Slope of Alaska (NSA), which is located in the northwest edge of the Prudhoe Bay oilfield. Typically, oil and natural gas extraction emissions are not thought to serve as a significant source of INPs, since naturally produced primary aerosols are the most efficient and abundant INPs (e.g., 1). However, the goal of INPOP was to evaluate INPs in the context of supporting aerosol and meteorological observations to assess: (1) if local industrial activities due to the oilfield operations can serve as a source of INPs (e.g., such as road dust from routine vehicular operations) and (2) if other regional or long-range transported sources impact a polluted Arctic location by introducing higher concentrations of more efficient INPs (e.g., transport of primary biological aerosol particles (PBAPs) from open ocean water or Arctic haze INPs). Unlike other Arctic coastal locations in the spring, Oliktok Point has a distinct combination of aerosol sources including long-range transported haze, regional/local marine emissions, and the local oilfield activities. Ground-based, immersion-mode, ice nucleation measurements were conducted on samples collected at the AMF3 in Oliktok Point from 1 March to 31 May, 2017. Samples were collected using a Davis Rotating-drum Unit for Monitoring (DRUM; DRUMAir, LLC) cascading impactor in 4 stages (i.e., size bins). Instrument information on the model used, the DA400, can be found at the DRUMAir website (http://www.drumair.com/). Stages A, B, C, and D, had particle size cuts at 2.96, 1.21, 0.34, and 0.15 μm particle diameter. Strips of sample substrate (PFA, perfluoroalkoxy; McMaster) were adhered to each disc in each stage and coated with petrolatum to enable particles to stick on impact. The discs move slowly over time, such that aerosol loading is streaked onto the PFA. Every 24 hours, a blank spot is created on the PFA to separate daily samples. The pump typically pulled 25 lpm at the inlet with all the discs in place in each stage. Daily samples were collected for each of the four stages, equaling 36,000 total L of air per sample. Discs rotated for approximately 24 days before the sampling per strip was complete and a new disc was installed by the ARM operators. Discs were stored frozen after collection until the end of the study.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Better calibration of cloud parameterizations and subgrid effects increases the fidelity of the E3SM Atmosphere Model version 1

Abstract. Realistic simulation of the Earth's mean-state climate remains a major challenge, and yet it is crucial for predicting the climate system in transition. Deficiencies in models' process representations, propagation of errors from one process to another, and associated compensating errors can often confound the interpretation and improvement of model simulations. These errors and biases can also lead to unrealistic climate projections and incorrect attribution of the physical mechanisms governing past and future climate change. Here we show that a significantly improved global atmospheric simulation can be achieved by focusing on the realism of process assumptions in cloud calibration and subgrid effects using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1 (EAMv1). The calibration of clouds and subgrid effects informed by our understanding of physical mechanisms leads to significant improvements in clouds and precipitation climatology, reducing common and long-standing biases across cloud regimes in the model. The improved cloud fidelity in turn reduces biases in other aspects of the system. Furthermore, even though the recalibration does not change the global mean aerosol and total anthropogenic effective radiative forcings (ERFs), the sensitivity of clouds, precipitation, and surface temperature to aerosol perturbations is significantly reduced. This suggests that it is possible to achieve improvements to the historical evolution of surface temperature over EAMv1 and that precise knowledge of global mean ERFs is not enough to constrain historical or future climate change. Cloud feedbacks are also significantly reduced in the recalibrated model, suggesting that there would be a lower climate sensitivity when it is run as part of the fully coupled E3SM. This study also compares results from incremental changes to cloud microphysics, turbulent mixing, deep convection, and subgrid effects to understand how assumptions in the representation of these processes affect different aspects of the simulated atmosphere as well as its response to forcings. We conclude that the spectral composition and geographical distribution of the ERFs and cloud feedback, as well as the fidelity of the simulated base climate state, are important for constraining the climate in the past and future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗