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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Development and Evaluation of E3SM‐MOSAIC: Spatial Distributions and Radiative Effects of Nitrate Aerosol

Abstract Nitrate aerosol plays an important role in affecting regional air quality as well as Earth's climate. However, it is not well represented or even neglected in many global climate models. In this study, we couple the Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (MOSAIC) module with the four‐mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4) in DOE's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2) to simulate nitrate aerosol and its radiative effects. We find that nitrate aerosol simulated by E3SMv2‐MAM4‐MOSAIC is sensitive to the treatment of gaseous HNO 3 transfer to/from interstitial particles related to accommodation coefficients of HNO 3 ( ) on dust and non‐dust particles. We compare three different treatments of HNO 3 transfer: (a) a treatment (MTC_SLOW) that uses a low in the mass transfer coefficient (MTC) calculation; (b) a dust‐weighted MTC treatment (MTC_WGT) that uses a high on non‐dust particles; and (c) a dust‐weighted MTC treatment that also splits coarse mode aerosols into the coarse dust and sea salt sub‐modes in MOSAIC (MTC_SPLC). MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC increase the global annual mean (2005–2014) nitrate burden from 0.096 (MTC_SLOW) to 0.237 and 0.185 Tg N, respectively, mostly in the coarse mode. MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC also produce stronger nitrate direct radiative forcing (−0.048 and −0.051 W m −2 , respectively) and indirect forcing (−0.33 and −0.35 W m −2 , respectively) than MTC_SLOW (−0.021 and −0.24 W m −2 ). MTC_WGT and MTC_SPLC improve nitrate surface concentrations over remote oceans based on limited observations and vertical profiles of nitrate concentrations against aircraft measurements below 400 hPa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensitivity of organized convective storms to model grid spacing in current and future climates

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are complexes of thunderstorms that become organized and cover hundreds of kilometres over several hours. MCSs are prolific rain producers in the tropics and mid-latitudes and are the major cause of warm-season flooding. Traditionally, climate models have difficulties in simulating MCSs partly due to the misrepresentation of complex process interactions that operate across a large range of scales. Significant improvements in simulating MCSs have been found in kilometre-scale models that explicitly simulate deep convection. However, these models operate in the grey zone of turbulent motion and have known deficiencies in simulating small-scale processes (e.g. entrainment, vertical mass transport). Here, we perform mid-latitude idealized ensemble MCS simulations under current and future climate conditions in three atmospheric regimes: hydrostatic (12 km horizontal grid spacing; Δx), non-hydrostatic (Δx = 4, 2 and 1 km) and large eddy scale (Δx = 500 m and 250 m). Our results show a dramatic improvement in simulating MCS precipitation, movement, cold pools, and cloud properties when transitioning from 12 km to 4 km Δx. Decreasing Δx beyond 4 km results in modest improvements except for up- and downdraft sizes, average vertical mass fluxes, and cloud top height and temperature, which continue to change. Most important for climate modelling is that Δx = 4 km simulations reliably capture most MCS climate change signals compared to those of the Δx = 250 m runs. Significantly different climate change signals are found in Δx = 12 km runs that overestimate extreme precipitation changes by up to 100%.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A substantial role of soil erosion in the land carbon sink and its future changes

Realistic representation of land carbon sink in climate models is vital for predicting carbon climate feedbacks in a changing world. Although soil erosion that removes land organic carbon has increased substantially since the onset of agriculture, it is rarely included in the current generation of climate models. Using an Earth system model with soil erosion represented, we estimated that on average soil erosion displaces 5% of newly fixed land organic carbon downslope annually in the continental US. In the lower Mississippi river basin and the Cascades, the fraction can be as large as 40%. About 12% of the eroded organic carbon is eventually exported to inland waters, which is equal to 14% of the simulated net carbon gain by terrestrial ecosystems. By comparing the eroded organic carbon export to rivers with the particulate organic carbon export to oceans, we demonstrated that a large fraction of the carbon export to rivers could have been mineralized in inland waters. Importantly, with a direct comparison of eroded and exported soil organic carbon and land net carbon uptake, we found that Earth system models that ignore soil erosion likely offset the erosional carbon loss by increasing heterotrophic respiration implicitly. But as soil erosion and heterotrophic respiration respond differently to a warming climate, this unrealistic compensation would lead to biased predictions of future land carbon sink.

Tan, Zeli↗
DOE OSTI2020

Assessing Uncertainties and Approximations in Solar Heating of the Climate System

In calculating solar radiation, climate models make many simplifications, in part to reduce computational cost and enable climate modeling, and in part from lack of understanding of critical atmospheric information. Whether known errors or unknown errors, the community's concern is how these could impact the modeled climate. The simplifications are well known and most have published studies evaluating them, but with individual studies it is difficult to compare. Here, we collect a wide range of such simplifications in either radiative transfer modeling or atmospheric conditions and assess potential errors within a consistent framework on climate-relevant scales. We build benchmarking capability around a solar heating code (Solar-J) that doubles as a photolysis code for chemistry and can be readily adapted to consider other errors and uncertainties. The broad classes here include: use of broad wavelength bands to integrate over spectral features; scattering approximations that alter phase function and optical depths for clouds and gases; uncertainty in ice-cloud optics; treatment of fractional cloud cover including overlap; and variability of ocean surface albedo. We geographically map the errors in W m -2 using a full climate re-creation for January 2015 from a weather forecasting model. For many approximations assessed here, mean errors are ~2 W m -2 with greater latitudinal biases and are likely to affect a model’s ability to match the current climate state. Combining this work with previous studies, we make priority recommendations for fixing these simplifications based on both the magnitude of error and the ease or computational cost of the fix.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

COMBLE ARM Mobile Facility (AMF) Measurements of Ice Nucleating Particles Field Campaign Report

During the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment (COMBLE), a project with the overarching goal to shed light on the dynamics and microphysical properties of clouds and precipitation in the high-latitude marine boundary layer during cold-air outbreaks (CAOs), we were tasked with providing and assisting the collection of aerosol filter samples for measuring ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations. Little is known about the properties of CAO cloud systems, how they vary with surface, environmental, and aerosol conditions, the role of cold-air outbreaks in the global atmospheric and ocean circulation, and the accuracy of the treatment of this atmospheric regime in climate models. Uncertainties in climate projections for the arctic and sub-arctic region are large, in part due to the lack of observational guidance to constrain the treatment of aerosol-cloud-precipitation linkages in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Natural variability contributes to model–satellite differences in tropical tropospheric warming

Significance Climate models have, on average, simulated substantially more tropical tropospheric warming than satellite data, with few simulations matching observations. It has been suggested that this discrepancy arises because climate models are overly sensitive to greenhouse gas increases. Tropical tropospheric temperature trends from a large ensemble of simulations performed with a single climate model span a wide range that is solely due to natural climate variability. A subset of these simulations have warming rates in accord with satellite observations. Simulations with diminished tropical tropospheric warming due to climate variability exhibit characteristic patterns of surface warming that are similar to the observed record. Our results indicate that multidecadal variability can explain current model–observational differences in the rate of tropical tropospheric warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Assessing Clouds Using Satellite Observations Through Three Generations of Global Atmosphere Models

Abstract Clouds are parameterized in climate models using quantities on the model grid‐scale to approximate the cloud cover and impact on radiation. Because of the complexity of processes involved with clouds, these parameterizations are one of the key challenges in climate modeling. Differences in parameterizations of clouds are among the main contributors to the spread in climate sensitivity across models. In this work, the clouds in three generations of an atmosphere model lineage are evaluated against satellite observations. Satellite simulators are used within the model to provide an appropriate comparison with individual satellite products. In some respects, especially the top‐of‐atmosphere cloud radiative effect, the models show generational improvements. The most recent generation, represented by two distinct branches of development, exhibits some regional regressions in the cloud representation; in particular the southern ocean shows a positive bias in cloud cover. The two branches of model development show how choices during model development, both structural and parametric, lead to different cloud climatologies. Several evaluation strategies are used to quantify the spatial errors in terms of the large‐scale circulation and the cloud structure. The Earth mover's distance is proposed as a useful error metric for the passive satellite data products that provide cloud‐top pressure‐optical depth histograms. The cloud errors identified here may contribute to the high climate sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model, version 2 and in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, version 1.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluating and Improving Convective Parameterization for GCMs Using ARM Observations. Final report

This technical report summarizes the achievements during the project period funded by the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program. The general goal of the project is to improve the representation of atmospheric deep convection in global climate models. By using DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program observations and a hierarchy of models from cloud-resolving to global climate models, we evaluated and improved many aspects of convection parameterization schemes, such as the trigger function for convection and closure condition to determine the amount of convection. We also incorporated the stochasticity of convection into a convection scheme. These improvements, when implemented into the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the DOE Exascale Energy Earth System Model (E3SM), led to improved simulation of precipitation characteristics, including precipitation intensity, Intertropical Convergence Zone, and Madden-Julian oscillation. The project also improved the representation of microphysical processes in convective clouds. It enables the interaction of cloud microphysics with aerosols in weather and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved representation of black carbon mixing structures suggests stronger direct radiative heating

Black carbon significantly influences the Earth system because of its strong solar radiation absorption. However, its direct radiative effect remains poorly understood in current climate models, partly because current climate models oversimplify the diverse structures formed when black carbon mixes with other atmospheric components. Here we show that incorporating more realistic, multi-mixing-structure representations of black carbon increases the direct radiative effect. We find that aged black carbon particles, with thicker coatings and higher embedded fractions, enhance the direct radiative effect more efficiently. Using machine learning alongside the Community Earth System Model, we show that the direct radiative effect at the top of the atmosphere in regions with heavy black carbon pollution is 31.6% greater when multi-mixing structures are considered. These findings highlight the importance of modeling complex mixing structures of particle-resolved black carbon to accurately capture their warming impacts on global atmosphere, particularly in highly polluted regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Solar Radiation Using NA-CORDEX and the NSRDB

The current state-of-art for estimating long-term PV production uses long-term estimates of solar radiation variables, such as global horizontal irradiance (GHI), from previous years. This data is used in models such as the System Advisor Model (SAM) or PYSyst to predict annual production for a PV plant. This information is then used to estimate the production over the next 20 years (a typical plant lifetime) under the assumption that the variability over the current period is representative of the future. As the PV industry moves to extend plant lifetimes to 50 years the current assumptions of representativeness of weather may not be appropriate. This is especially true as our climate changes rapidly. To assess long-term PV production, future projections for solar radiation based on projected carbon emissions are readily available in regional and global climate models. However, climate model projections contain inherent biases that may need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. Several studies have analyzed projections of solar radiation for future years, however the accuracy of the model output compared to current and historic data has not been widely studied. Chen (2021) showed that available climate models do not accurately represent solar radiation in some cases, over-projecting GHI at the surface while under-projecting its obstructions, such as clouds and aerosols. This works aims to (1) increase understanding of the accuracy of solar radiation currently available in global and regional climate models and (2) implement bias correction through linear models based on reanalysis data compared to observed solar radiation. The latter aim will be conducted using available observed solar radiation data and modeled data from several regional climate models (RCMs). The bias correction method will be applied to projections of solar radiation resulting in a more accurate representation of the future of solar production.

climate data↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Important ice processes are missed by the Community Earth System Model (CESM) in Southern Ocean mixed–phase clouds: Bridging SOCRATES observations to model developments

Global climate models (GCMs) are challenged by difficulties in simulating cloud phase and cloud radiative effect over the Southern Ocean (SO). Some of the new generation GCMs predict too much liquid and too little ice in mixed-phase clouds. This misrepresentation of cloud phase in GCMs results in weaker negative cloud feedback over the SO and a higher climate sensitivity. Based on a model comparison with observational data obtained during the Southern Ocean Cloud Radiation and Aerosol Transport Experimental Study (SOCRATES), this study addresses a key uncertainty in the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) related to cloud phase, namely ice formation in pristine remote SO clouds. It is found that sea spray organic aerosols (SSOA) are the most important type of ice nucleating particles (INPs) over the SO with concentrations one order of magnitude higher than those of dust INPs based on measurements and CESM2 simulations. Secondary ice production (SIP) which includes riming splintering, rain droplet shattering, and ice-ice collisional fragmentation as implemented in CESM2 is the dominant ice production process in moderately cold clouds with cloud temperatures greater than –20°C. SIP enhances the in-cloud ice number concentrations (Ni) by 1-3 orders of magnitude and predicts more mixed-phase (with percentage occurrence increased from 15% to 21%), in better agreement with the observations. Finally, this study highlights the importance of accurately representing cloud phase over the pristine remote SO by considering the ice nucleation of SSOA and SIP processes, which are currently missing in most GCM cloud microphysics parameterizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pacific decadal oscillation remotely forced by the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans

Abstract The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the leading mode of Pacific decadal sea surface temperature variability, arises mainly from combinations of regional air-sea interaction within the North Pacific Ocean and remote forcing, such as from the tropical Pacific and the Atlantic. Because of such a combination of mechanisms, a question remains as to how much PDO variability originates from these regions. To better understand PDO variability, the equatorial Pacific and the Atlantic impacts on the PDO are examined using several 3-dimensional partial ocean data assimilation experiments conducted with two global climate models: the CESM1.0 and MIROC3.2m. In these partial assimilation experiments, the climate models are constrained by observed temperature and salinity anomalies, one solely in the Atlantic basin and the other solely in the equatorial Pacific basin, but are allowed to evolve freely in other regions. These experiments demonstrate that, in addition to the tropical Pacific’s role in driving PDO variability, the Atlantic can affect PDO variability by modulating the tropical Pacific climate through two proposed processes. One is the equatorial pathway, in which tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) variability causes an El Niño-like SST response in the equatorial Pacific through the reorganization of the global Walker circulation. The other is the north tropical pathway, where low-frequency SST variability associated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation induces a Matsuno-Gill type atmospheric response in the tropical Atlantic-Pacific sectors north of the equator. These results provide a quantitative assessment suggesting that 12–29% of PDO variance originates from the Atlantic Ocean and 40–44% from the tropical Pacific. The remaining 27–48% of the variance is inferred to arise from other processes such as regional ocean-atmosphere interactions in the North Pacific and possibly teleconnections from the Indian Ocean.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multifidelity Monte Carlo estimation for efficient uncertainty quantification in climate-related modeling

Abstract. Uncertainties in an output of interest that depends on the solution of a complex system (e.g., of partial differential equations with random inputs) are often, if not nearly ubiquitously, determined in practice using Monte Carlo (MC) estimation. While simple to implement, MC estimation fails to provide reliable information about statistical quantities (such as the expected value of the output of interest) in application settings such as climate modeling, for which obtaining a single realization of the output of interest is a costly endeavor. Specifically, the dilemma encountered is that many samples of the output of interest have to be collected in order to obtain an MC estimator that has sufficient accuracy – so many, in fact, that the available computational budget is not large enough to effect the number of samples needed. To circumvent this dilemma, we consider using multifidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) estimation which leverages the use of less costly and less accurate surrogate models (such as coarser grids, reduced-order models, simplified physics, and/or interpolants) to achieve, for the same computational budget, higher accuracy compared to that obtained by an MC estimator – or, looking at it another way, an MFMC estimator obtains the same accuracy as the MC estimator at lower computational cost. The key to the efficacy of MFMC estimation is the fact that most of the required computational budget is loaded onto the less costly surrogate models so that very few samples are taken of the more expensive model of interest. We first provide a more detailed discussion about the need to consider an alternative to MC estimation for uncertainty quantification. Subsequently, we present a review, in an abstract setting, of the MFMC approach along with its application to three climate-related benchmark problems as a proof-of-concept exercise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The effect of temperature on photosystem II efficiency across plant functional types and climate

Modeling terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP) is central to predicting the global carbon cycle. Much interest has been focused on the environmentally induced dynamics of photosystem energy partitioning and how improvements in the description of such dynamics assist the prediction of light reactions of photosynthesis and therefore GPP. The maximum quantum yield of photosystem II (Φ PSIImax ) is a key parameter of the light reactions that influence the electron transport rate needed for supporting the biochemical reactions of photosynthesis. Φ PSIImax is generally treated as a constant in biochemical photosynthetic models even though a constant Φ PSIImax is expected only for non-stressed plants. We synthesized reported Φ PSIImax values from pulse-amplitude-modulated fluorometry measurements in response to variable temperatures across the globe. We found that Φ PSIImax is strongly affected by prevailing temperature regimes with declined values in both hot and cold conditions. To understand the spatiotemporal variability in Φ PSIImax , we analyzed the temperature effect on Φ PSIImax across plant functional type (PFT) and habitat climatology. The analysis showed that temperature's impact on Φ PSIImax is shaped more by climate than by PFT for plants with broad latitudinal distributions or in regions with extreme temperature variability. There is a trade-off between the temperature range within which Φ PSIImax remains maximal and the overall rate of decline of Φ PSIImax outside the temperature range such that species cannot be simultaneously tolerant and resilient to extreme temperatures. Our study points to a quantitative approach for improving electron transport and photosynthetic productivity modeling under changing climates at regional and global scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Global tropical cyclone precipitation scaling with sea surface temperature

Understanding the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential for both TC hazard forecasting and projecting how these hazards will change in the future due to climate change. This work untangles how global TC precipitation is impacted by present-day SST variability (known as apparent scaling) and by long-term changes in SST caused by climate change (known as climate scaling). A variety of datasets are used including precipitation and SST observations, realistic climate model simulations, and idealized climate model simulations. The apparent scaling rates depend on precipitation metric; examples shown here have ranges of 6.1 to 9.5% per K versus 5.9 to 9.8% per K for two different metrics. The climate scaling is estimated at about 5% per K, which is slightly less than the atmospheric moisture scaling based on thermodynamic principles of about 7% per K (i.e., the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling). The apparent scaling is greater than the climate scaling, which implies that the relationship between TC precipitation and present-day SST variability should not be used to project the long-term response of TC precipitation to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Analysis of secondary organic aerosol simulation bias in the Community Earth System Model (CESM2.1)

Organic aerosol (OA) has been considered as one of the most important uncertainties in climate modeling due to the complexity in presenting its chemical production and depletion mechanisms. To better understand the capability of climate models and probe into the associated uncertainties in simulating OA, we evaluate the Community Earth System Model version 2.1 (CESM2.1) configured with the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) with comprehensive tropospheric and stratospheric chemistry representation (CAM6-Chem) through a long-term simulation (1988–2019) with observations collected from multiple datasets in the United States. We find that CESM generally reproduces the interannual variation and seasonal cycle of OA mass concentration at surface layer with a correlation of 0.40 compared to ground observations and systematically overestimates (69%) in summer and underestimates (-19%) in winter. Through a series of sensitivity simulations, we reveal that modeling bias is primarily related to the dominant fraction of monoterpene-formed secondary organic aerosol (SOA), and a strong positive correlation of 0.67 is found between monoterpene emission and modeling bias in the eastern US during summer. In terms of vertical profile, the model prominently underestimates OA and monoterpene concentrations by 37%–99% and 82%–99%, respectively, in the upper air (>500 m) as validated against aircraft observations. Our study suggests that the current volatility basis set (VBS) scheme applied in CESM might be parameterized with monoterpene SOA yields that are too high, which subsequently results in strong SOA production near the emission source area. We also find that the model has difficulty in reproducing the decreasing trend of surface OA in the southeastern US probably because of employing pure gas VBS to represent isoprene SOA which is in reality mainly formed through multiphase chemistry; thus, the influence of aerosol acidity and sulfate particle change on isoprene SOA formation has not been fully considered in the model. This study reveals the urgent need to improve the SOA modeling in climate models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Tropical Cyclone Wind Shear-Relative Asymmetry in Reanalyses

Abstract While tropical cyclones (TCs) are axisymmetric vortices to the first order, they often exhibit noteworthy structural asymmetries. These often result from environmental vertical wind shear, which tilts the vortex and induces a wavenumber 1 pattern in the circulation and precipitation fields. Reanalyses and climate models have improved in representing the TC structure and climatology, but their relatively coarse resolution and dependence on parameterized physics cast doubt on their ability to capture the asymmetric TC structure. We perform the most comprehensive process-oriented assessment of TC asymmetry to date in reanalyses. Specifically, we analyze the composite shear-relative TC structure in ERA5 and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), which vary in their resolutions, physical parameterization suites, and data assimilation techniques. These structures are compared with aircraft reconnaissance radar observations. In agreement with the observations, the strongest tangential winds are usually found left-of-shear, while inner core rainfall, ascent, vortex tilt, and low-level inflow are favored directly downshear or in the downshear-left quadrant. Outer rainband convection generally peaks in the downshear-right quadrant. Thermodynamic asymmetries are also apparent, with anomalous low-level moisture right-of-shear, midlevel warmth in the upshear-right quadrant (uptilt), and cloud properties suggestive of a realistic precipitation life cycle from growth to fallout. We also decompose rainfall contributions from the convective parameterization and large-scale cloud schemes and highlight the roles of vorticity advection, buoyancy advection, and diabatic processes in driving asymmetric vertical motions in the inner core and outer rainband regions. Our results suggest that process-level studies of TC asymmetry and TC–wind shear interaction under future warming are viable using climate models. Significance Statement Asymmetries are common in tropical cyclones (TCs), influencing their intensity, track, and hazards. Vertical wind shear often plays a leading-order role in causing these asymmetries. It is uncertain how well asymmetric structures and processes are captured in reanalyses and global climate models (GCMs) with grid spacings of 0.25° and coarser. In this study, we first evaluate TC asymmetry in reanalyses, which have the benefit of being forced by observations. This helps to assess whether the resolutions associated with GCMs sufficiently capture asymmetric structures and processes and motivates upcoming work with free-running GCMs to study how TC asymmetry may change in a warming climate.

Carstens, Jacob D.↗