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At least 271 records · Page 15

Migrating Populus with climate change: Phenology, coppice management, cold spell susceptibility, leaf dynamics, and biomass production

Understanding the phenology and productivity of Populus species is crucial for effective management and conservation strategies amid climate change. We investigated leaf budbreak timing, susceptibility to cold damage, leaf dynamics, and biomass production of 168 Populus genotypes with diverse provenances in the southeastern United States. Our study revealed significant variation in budbreak timing across different taxa and years, with genotypes inheriting traits adapted to their parents’ local climates. Temperature emerged as a key factor triggering budbreak, while leaf development depended on other environmental cues such as photoperiod. Notably, budbreak occurred approximately 20 days earlier in 2023 compared to 2022 due to higher accumulated degree days (ADDs). Short-rotation-coppice (SRC) management delayed budbreak by five to ten days. Cold damage was significant in 2023, particularly for genotypes from northern provenances and those with P. maximowiczii parentage. Severe damage was also observed in eastern cottonwood ( Populus deltoides ​× ​ Populus deltoides (D ​× ​D)) genotypes, despite most having southeastern US parentages. Leaf dynamics, including leaf duration and leaf area index (LAI), varied across taxa and sites, with earlier budbreak correlating with extended growing seasons and increased LAI. Biomass production was intricately linked to phenological events, with earlier budbreak leading to increased biomass production and greater susceptibility to cold damage. Our findings highlight the importance of genetics, environment, and coppicing management in understanding and managing Populus phenology and biomass production. These insights provide valuable guidance for developing effective breeding, conservation, and management strategies for Populus species in the context of climate change.

Accumulated degree days (ADDs)↗

Data-Driven Exploration of Climate Attractor Manifolds For Long-Term Predictability

Focal Area: This white paper responds to Focal Area 3. We seek to gain insight into decadal-scale climate predictability by applying novel manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques to the complex data produced by Earth System models (ESMs) such as E3SM. The associated portfolio of research activities leverages DOE’s asset mix of HPC platforms, climate expertise, climate simulation codes, and AI expertise. Science Challenge: Climate and climate models are dynamical systems exhibiting properties that are interpretable through chaos theory. The theory contains an important concept that is relevant to multi-decade-scale climate prediction: a chaotic attractor. While the space containing all the possible states of the Earth’s atmosphere and ocean, the possible weather, is large, the realized states tend to stay near the smaller-dimensioned attractor. This behavior is responsible for the “order behind the irregularity” [1] of climate phenomena. Climate change can be thought of as a change in the properties of the attractor, and predicting the climate over years to decades is equivalent to predicting how those properties will change. To date, the attractor has been a useful conceptual tool, but has not been amenable to direct characterization. A new development is the advent of efficient high-dimensional manifold-finding probabilistic AI techniques, which permit a data-driven characterization of the ESM attractor and its probability distribution over weather states. Such a characterization would result in a natural dimensional reduction — a “non-linear Principal Components Analysis (PCA) adapted to climate simulation data” — leading to important advances in scenario-based long-term climate prediction, long-term prediction of water cycle extremes, ESM verification, inter-model comparison, and process model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Water Cycle: Capabilities in the TRMM Era and Challenges for GPM

Considerable uncertainty surrounds the issue of whether precipitation over the tropical oceans (30" NE) systematically changes with interannual sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies that accompany El Nino (warm) and La Nina (cold) events. Although it is well documented that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events with marked SST changes over the tropical oceans, produce significant regional changes in precipitation, water vapor, and radiative fluxes in the tropics, we still cannot yet adequately quantify the associated net integrated changes to water and heat balance over the entire tropical oceanic or land sectors. Robertson et al., [2001 GRL] for example, showed that substantial disagreement exists among contemporary satellite estimates of interannual variations in tropical rainfall that are associated with SST changes. Berg et al., [2002 J. Climate] have documented the distinct differences between precipitation structure over the eastern and western Pacific ITCZ and noted how various satellite precipitation algorithms may respond quite differently to ENSO modulations of these precipitation regimes. Resolving this uncertainty is important since precipitation and latent heat release variations over land and ocean sectors are key components of the tropical heat balance in its most aggregated form. Rainfall estimates from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) averaged over the tropical oceans have not solved this issue and, in fact, show marked differences with estimates from two TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) passive microwave algorithms. In this paper we will focus on findings that uncertainties in microphysical assumptions necessitated by the single-frequency PR measurement pose difficulties for detecting climate-related precipitation signals. Recent work has shown that path-integrated attenuation derived from the effects of precipitation on the radar return from the ocean surface exhibits interannual variability that agrees closely with the TMI time series, yet the PR rainfall interannual variability (and attenuation derived predominantly from reflectivity) differs even in sign. We will explore these apparent inconsistencies and detail their impact on estimates of how ENSO events perturb the tropical rainfall. We will place these results in perspective by considering requirements for precipitation accuracy for global climate variability and change studies involving ENSO, monsoon dynamics and variations, and climate model improvement and validation. The discussion will conclude with an assessment of the implications of these findings for Global Precipitation Mission (GPM) requirements.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Influence of Global Climate on Freshwater Changes in Africa’s Largest Endorheic Basin Using Multi-Scaled Indicators

The poor investments in gauge measurements for hydro-climatic research in Africa has necessitated the need to investigate how decision makers can leverage on sophisticated spaceborne measurements to improve knowledge on surface water hydrology that can feed directly into water accounting processes and risk assessment from extreme droughts and its impacts. To demonstrate such potential, a suite of satellite earth observations (Sentinel-2, altimetry, Landsat, GRACE, and TRMM) and model data are combined with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index to assess the impacts of global climate on freshwater dynamics over the LCB (Lake Chad basin), Africa’s largest endorheic basin. As shown in the results of this study, the significant relationship of climate modes (AMO; r = 0.68 and 0.59; and AMM; r = 0.2 and 0.47) with drought patterns in the LCB highlights the evidence of global climate influence in the region. The significant declines in drought extents and their intensities (2004 - 2015) over LCB coincide with the rise in surface water extent of the Lake Chad during the same period. Change detection analysis of open water features in the southern pool of Lake Chad during the 2015 - 2019 period shows that on the average, only 28.4% of inundated areas within the vicinity of the Lake persisted during the period. While the association of terrestrial water storage (TWS) with model-derived surface water storage (SWS) is strongest (r = 0.89) in the catchments that provide the most nourishment to the Lake Chad, the relationship of rainfall (2002 - 2017) with TWS (r = 0.85), model TWS (r = 0.87) and SWS (r = 0.88) confirm that the LCB’s hydrology is predominantly climate-driven. This notion is further reinforced as the predicted SWS over the LCB using a support vector machine regression scheme was found to be strongly correlated (r = 0.95 at = 0.05) with observed SWS.

Sentinel-2↗

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science Plan and Experimental Design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments (Eoi 400 , E 280 ) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations.

Climate modelling↗

A Data Set for Intercomparing the Transient Behavior of Dynamical Model-Based Subseasonal to Decadal Climate Predictions

Climate predictions using coupled models in different time scales, from intraseasonal to decadal, are usually affected by initial shocks, drifts, and biases, which reduce the prediction skill. These arise from inconsistencies between different components of the coupled models and from the tendency of the model state to evolve from the prescribed initial conditions toward its own climatology over the course of the prediction. Aiming to provide tools and further insight into the mechanisms responsible for initial shocks, drifts, and biases, this paper presents a novel data set developed within the Long Range Forecast Transient Intercomparison Project, LRFTIP. This data set has been constructed by averaging hindcasts over available prediction years and ensemble members to form a hindcast climatology, that is a function of spatial variables and lead time, and thus results in a useful tool for characterizing and assessing the evolution of errors as well as the physical mechanisms responsible for them. A discussion on such errors at the different time scales is provided along with plausible ways forward in the field of climate predictions

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Implementation and Evaluation of Physics-Driven Dynamic Entrainment-Mixing Parameterization in a Climate Model and Its Impact on Low-Cloud Simulation

The turbulent entrainment-mixing process in the Community Earth System Model version 1.2 (CESM1.2) is assumed to follow the extremely inhomogeneous entrainment-mixing. However, different entrainment-mixing scenarios can occur in real clouds. To address this deficiency, a unifying parameterization that represents different entrainment-mixing processes is implemented and evaluated in CESM1.2. The results indicate that the homogeneous mixing degree values simulated by the new parameterization in CESM1.2 are predominantly greater than 50%, suggesting a tendency toward homogeneous mixing. Compared to the extremely inhomogeneous mixing mechanism, the new parameterization increases the cloud droplet number concentration (Nc). More importantly, the new parameterization improves low-cloud fraction (CLDLOW) simulation in Northwest Pacific (NWP) and Southeast Pacific (SEP) regions, with relative improvements of 2.95% and 4.17%, respectively. Furthermore, the improvements reach up to 44.6% and 16.2% in the NWP and SEP regions, respectively, when considering the relationship between N c and CLDLOW. Further analysis reveals that the new parameterization enhances cloud optical depth, longwave radiative cooling effect, net condensation rate, cloud water mixing ratio, lower-troposphere stability, and CLDLOW by increasing N c . Additionally, these results underscore the importance of improving entrainment-mixing parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Ames Contrail Simulation Model: Modeling Aviation Induced Contrails and the Computation of Contrail Radiative Forcing Using Air Traffic Data

NASA is developing traffic flow management strategies to reduce the impact of aviation on climate and improve efficiency of aircraft routes in the presence of limited airport and airspace capacity constraints, which are partly due to convective weather and natural calamities. Development of Strategic Traffic Flow Management (STFM) requires models of aircraft emissions and contrails, and models of their effect on climate. There is extensive literature on the modeling of contrails and the Radiative Forcing (RF) associated with contrails. This report captures the latest NASA developments in this research area and describes the integrated modeling, analysis, and software development to support STFM. Aircraft contrails are long, thin and often linear clouds triggered by aircraft engine exhausts in the high-altitude ice-saturated atmosphere. Contrails, similar to that of natural cirrus clouds, can impact global climate by reflecting shortwave radiation and trapping longwave radiation. Recent studies from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have shown that aircraft contrails are estimated to have greater impact on global warming than aircraft CO 2 emissions. The Ames Contrail Simulation Model (ACSM) presented in this report simulates the full life cycle of aircraft contrails, including their formation, dynamic evolution, and dissipation, and calculates the associated RF with actual meteorological and air traffic data. ACSM combines models from previous studies that focus on contrail formation and persistence based on the Schmidt-Appleman theoretical criteria, and it incorporates elements of cloud dynamics, microphysics, and climate modeling found in other surveyed contrail models, while also making adjustment for improved computational efficiency. In addition, ACSM is integrated with NASA's state-of-the-art flight simulation software for rapid assessment of aircraft contrail impacts. Applications include assessments of long-term global climate impact resulting from aviation-induced contrails and the design of optimal contrail-mitigation aircraft operation strategies.

aviation contrails↗

Present-day Antarctic climatology of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1

The ability of the NCAR Community Climate Model Version 1 (CCM1) with R 15 resolution to simulate the present-day climate of Antarctica was evaluated using the five-year seasonal cycle output produced by the CCM1 and comparing the model results with observed horizontal syntheses and point data. The results showed that the CCM1 with R 15 resolution can simulate to some extent the dynamics of Antarctic climate on the synoptic scale as well as some mesoscale features. The model can also simulate the phase and the amplitude of the annual and semiannual variation of the temperature, sea level pressure, and zonally averaged zonal (E-W) wind. The main shortcomings of the CCM1 model are associated with the model's anomalously large precipitation amounts at high latitudes, due to the tendency of the scheme to suppress negative moisture values.

Tzeng, Ren-Yow↗

Investigating Mountain Watershed Headwater‐To‐Groundwater Connections, Water Sources, and Storage Selection Behavior With Dynamic‐Flux Particle Tracking

Abstract Climate change will impact mountain watershed streamflow both directly—with changing precipitation amounts and variability—and indirectly—through temperature shifts altering snowpack, melt, and evapotranspiration. To understand how these complex processes will affect ecosystem functioning and water resources, we need tools to distinguish connections between water sources (rain/snowmelt), groundwater storage, and exit fluxes (streamflow/evapotranspiration), and to determine how these connections change seasonally and as climate shifts. Here, we develop novel watershed‐scale approaches to understand water source, storage, and exit flux connections using a dynamic‐flux particle tracking model (EcoSLIM) applied in California's Cosumnes Watershed, which connects the Sierra Nevada and Central Valley. This work develops new visualizations and applications to provide mechanistic understanding that underpins the interpretation of isotopic field data at watershed scales to distinguish sources, flow paths, residence times, and storage selection. In our simulations, streamflow comes primarily from snow‐derived water while evapotranspiration generally comes from rain. Most streamflow starts above 1,000 m while evapotranspiration is sourced relatively evenly across the watershed and is generally younger than streamflow. Modeled streamflow consists primarily of water sourced from precipitation in the previous 5 years but before the current water year, while ET consists primarily of water from precipitation in the current water year. ET, and to a lesser extent streamflow, are both younger than water in groundwater storage. However, snowmelt‐derived streamflow preferentially discharges older water from snow‐derived storage. Dynamic‐flux particle tracking and new approaches presented here enable novel model‐tracer comparisons in large‐scale watersheds to better understand watershed behavior in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). I. Dry Cases—The Fellowship of the GCMs

With the commissioning of powerful, new-generation telescopes such as the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and the ground-based Extremely Large Telescopes, the first characterization of a high molecular weight atmosphere around a temperate rocky exoplanet is imminent. Atmospheric simulations and synthetic observables of target exoplanets are essential to prepare and interpret these observations. Here we report the results of the first part of the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) project, which compares 3D numerical simulations performed with four state-of-the-art global climate models (ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D, Unified Model) for the potentially habitable target TRAPPIST-1e. In this first part, we present the results of dry atmospheric simulations. These simulations serve as a benchmark to test how radiative transfer, subgrid-scale mixing (dry turbulence and convection), and large-scale dynamics impact the climate of TRAPPIST-1e and consequently the transit spectroscopy signature as seen by JWST. To first order, the four models give results in good agreement. The intermodel spread in the global mean surface temperature amounts to 7 K (6 K) for the N2-dominated (CO2-dominated) atmosphere. The radiative fluxes are also remarkably similar (intermodel variations less than 5%), from the surface (1 bar) up to atmospheric pressures ∼5 mbar. Moderate differences between the models appear in the atmospheric circulation pattern (winds) and the (stratospheric) thermal structure. These differences arise between the models from (1) large-scale dynamics, because TRAPPIST-1e lies at the tipping point between two different circulation regimes (fast and Rhines rotators) in which the models can be alternatively trapped, and (2) parameterizations used in the upper atmosphere such as numerical damping.

Martin Turbet↗

Remote Sensing-Informed Zonation for Understanding Snow, Plant and Soil Moisture Dynamics within a Mountain Ecosystem

In the headwater catchments of the Rocky Mountains, plant productivity and its dynamics are largely dependent upon water availability, which is influenced by changing snowmelt dynamics associated with climate change. Understanding and quantifying the interactions between snow, plants and soil moisture is challenging, since these interactions are highly heterogeneous in mountainous terrain, particularly as they are influenced by microtopography within a hillslope. Recent advances in satellite remote sensing have created an opportunity for monitoring snow and plant dynamics at high spatiotemporal resolutions that can capture microtopographic effects. In this study, we investigate the relationships among topography, snowmelt, soil moisture and plant dynamics in the East River watershed, Crested Butte, Colorado, based on a time series of 3-meter resolution PlanetScope normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) images. To make use of a large volume of high-resolution time-lapse images (17 images total), we use unsupervised machine learning methods to reduce the dimensionality of the time lapse images by identifying spatial zones that have characteristic NDVI time series. We hypothesize that each zone represents a set of similar snowmelt and plant dynamics that differ from other identified zones and that these zones are associated with key topographic features, plant species and soil moisture. We compare different distance measures (Ward and complete linkage) to understand the effects of their influence on the zonation map. Results show that the identified zones are associated with particular microtopographic features; highly productive zones are associated with low slopes and high topographic wetness index, in contrast with zones of low productivity, which are associated with high slopes and low topographic wetness index. The zones also correspond to particular plant species distributions; higher forb coverage is associated with zones characterized by higher peak productivity combined with rapid senescence in low moisture conditions, while higher sagebrush coverage is associated with low productivity and similar senescence patterns between high and low moisture conditions. In addition, soil moisture probe and sensor data confirm that each zone has a unique soil moisture distribution. This cluster-based analysis can tractably analyze high-resolution time-lapse images to examine plant-soil-snow interactions, guide sampling and sensor placements and identify areas likely vulnerable to ecological change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A vertically integrated snow/ice model over land/sea for climate models. I - Development. II - Impact on orbital change experiments

A vertically integrated formulation (VIF) model for sea ice/snow and land snow is discussed which can simulate the nonlinear effects of heat storage and transfer through the layers of snow and ice. The VIF demonstates the accuracy of the multilayer formulation, while benefitting from the computational flexibility of linear formulations. In the second part, the model is implemented in a seasonal dynamic zonally averaged climate model. It is found that, in response to a change between extreme high and low summer insolation orbits, the winter orbital change dominates over the opposite summer change for sea ice. For snow over land the shorter but more pronounced summer orbital change is shown to dominate.

Neeman, Binyamin U.↗

Coupled Biotic-Abiotic Processes Control Biogeochemical Cycling of Dissolved Organic Matter in the Columbia River Hyporheic Zone

A critical component of assessing the impacts of climate change on watershed ecosystems involves understanding the role that dissolved organic matter (DOM) plays in driving whole ecosystem metabolism. The hyporheic zone—a biogeochemical control point where ground water and river water mix—is characterized by high DOM turnover and microbial activity and is responsible for a large fraction of lotic respiration. Yet, the dynamic nature of this ecotone provides a challenging but important environment to parse out different DOM influences on watershed function and net carbon and nutrient fluxes. We used high-resolution Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry to provide a detailed molecular characterization of DOM and its transformation pathways in the Columbia river watershed. Samples were collected from ground water (adjacent unconfined aquifer underlying the Hanford 300 Area), Columbia river water, and its hyporheic zone. The hyporheic zone was sampled at five locations to capture spatial heterogeneity within the hyporheic zone. Our results revealed that abiotic transformation pathways (e.g., carboxylation), potentially driven by abiotic factors such as sunlight, in both the ground water and river water are likely influencing DOM availability to the hyporheic zone, which could then be coupled with biotic processes for enhanced microbial activity. The ground water profile revealed high rates of N and S transformations via abiotic reactions. The river profile showed enhanced abiotic photodegradation of lignin-like molecules that subsequently entered the hyporheic zone as low molecular weight, more degraded compounds. While the compounds in river water were in part bio-unavailable, some were further shown to increase rates of microbial respiration. Together, river water and ground water enhance microbial activity within the hyporheic zone, regardless of river stage, as shown by elevated putative amino-acid transformations and the abundance of amino-sugar and protein-like compounds. This enhanced microbial activity is further dependent on the composition of ground water and river water inputs. Our results further suggest that abiotic controls on DOM should be incorporated into predictive modeling for understanding watershed dynamics, especially as climate variability and land use could affect light exposure and changes to ground water essential elements, both shown to impact the Columbia river hyporheic zone.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Space observations for global and regional studies of the biosphere

The capability to make space-based measurements of Earth at high spatial and temporal resolutions, which would not otherwise be economically or practically feasible, became available just in time to contribute to scientific understanding of the interactive processes governing the total Earth system. Such understanding has now become essential in order to take practical steps which would counteract or mitigate the pervasive impact of the growing human population on the future habitability of the Earth. The paper reviews the rationale for using space observations for studies of climate and terrestrial ecosystems at global and regional scales, as well as the requirements for such observations for studies of climate and ecosystem dynamics. The present status of these developments is reported along with initiatives under way to advance the use of satellite observations for Earth system studies. The most important contribution of space observations is the provision of physical or biophysical parameters for models representing various components of the Earth system. Examples of such parameters are given for climatic and ecosystem studies.

Cihlar, J.↗

Atmosphere-Biosphere Interaction Study (Field Campaign Report)

The objective of this campaign was to collect hyperspectral reflectance measurements and complementary optical and infrared data of land surface (i.e., vegetation and soil) throughout the growing season (i.e., from March to September) at high temporal frequency (e.g., < 30 minutes). To collect the measurements, the EcoSpec system, a tower-based sensor system housing seven optical and infrared sensors that was developed at Argonne National Laboratory, was deployed to the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) atmospheric observatory (within the crop, south of the eddy correlation flux measurement system [ECOR] tower). The EcoSpec system consists of a spectroradiometer having 2,151 channels (350–2,500 nm), red-greenblue (RGB) camera, diffuse radiometer, thermal infrared (TIR) sensors, albedometers, Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI) sensors, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) sensors, and wetness sensor. The system is designed to collect an array of land surface measurements, including hyperspectral reflectance of plants and soils, RGB photos capturing contextual information of land surface, radiant temperature of sky and land surface, incoming and reflected shortwave radiation, and incoming radiation components (direct and diffuse) as frequent as every minute from up to 12 discrete positions around the tower. This would allow us to capture inherent heterogeneity of the terrestrial ecosystem and to obtain representative spectral signatures of the plant and soil surfaces via averaging those measurements. The SGP site provides advanced atmospheric and other physical measurements that are essential for our investigation of ecosystem functions using hyperspectral reflectance measurements of land surfaces. Located in the mid-latitudes, the SGP site exhibits dynamic seasonality and a wide range of meteorological variability and flux properties that make it ideal for studying interactions between near-surface atmosphere and biosphere across a range of environmental conditions. The atmosphere, plants, and soil control terrestrial carbon and water cycles. To make more accurate climate forecasts, researchers need to understand ecosystem dynamics at the biosphere–atmosphere interface. Even though our ability to forecast ecosystem dynamics and climate at both the regional and global scales has advanced significantly, we still do not know how local phenomena affecting water and carbon fluxes—such as diurnal variations—interrelate with large-scale atmospheric/climate phenomena, and vice versa. The lack of a more thorough understanding of ecosystem dynamics and climate interactions is a key knowledge gap for the improvement of earth system models (ESMs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗