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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2018

Novel climates reverse carbon uptake of atmospherically dependent epiphytes: Climatic constraints on the iconic boreal forest lichen Evernia mesomorpha

Premise of the Study: Changing climates are expected to affect the abundance and distribution of global vegetation, especially plants and lichens with an epiphytic lifestyle and direct exposure to atmospheric variation. The study of epiphytes could improve understanding of biological responses to climatic changes, but only if the conditions that elicit physiological performance changes are clearly defined.Methods: We evaluated individual growth performance of the epiphytic lichen Evernia mesomorpha, an iconic boreal forest indicator species, in the first year of a decade-long experiment featuring whole-ecosystem warming and drying. Field experimental enclosures were located near the southern edge of the species’ range.Key Results: Mean annual biomass growth of Evernia significantly declined 6 percentage points for every +1°C of experimental warming after accounting for interactions with atmospheric drying. Mean annual biomass growth was 14% in ambient treatments, 2% in unheated control treatments, and -9% to -19% (decreases) in energy-added treatments ranging from +2.25 to +9.00°C above ambient temperatures. Warming-induced biomass losses among persistent individuals were suggestive evidence of an extinction debt that could precede further local mortality events.Conclusions: Changing patterns of warming and drying would decrease or reverse Evernia growth at its southern range margins, with potential consequences for the maintenance of local and regional populations. Negative carbon balances among persisting individuals could physiologically commit these epiphytes to local extinction. Our findings illuminate the processes underlying local extinctions of epiphytes and suggest broader consequences for range shrinkage if dispersal and recruitment rates cannot keep pace.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Predicting Chronic Climate-Driven Disturbances and Their Mitigation

Society increasingly demands the stable provision of ecosystem resources to support our population. Resource risks from climate-driven disturbances--including drought, heat, insect outbreaks, and wildfire--are rising as a chronic state of disequilibrium results from increasing temperatures and a greater frequency of extreme events. This confluence of increased demand and risk may soon reach critical thresholds. We explain here why extreme chronic disequilibrium of ecosystem function is likely to increase dramatically across the globe, creating no-analog conditions that challenge adaptation. We also present novel mechanistic theory that combines models for disturbance mortality and metabolic scaling to link size-dependent plant mortality to changes in ecosystem stocks and fluxes. Efforts must anticipate and model chronic ecosystem disequilibrium to properly prepare for resilience planning.

disequilibrium↗
DOE OSTI2019

Understanding Monsoonal Water Cycle Changes in a Warmer Climate in E3SMv1 Using a Normalized Gross Moist Stability Framework

Abstract One of the grand challenges of climate science is understanding the changes of the tropical rain belts and monsoon systems owing to CO 2 ‐induced warming. A promising path forward links the fluxes of energy and moisture to tropical circulation features. To this end, we make use of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1, where the divergence of moist static energy and moisture have been calculated online, and employ a normalized gross moist stability (NGMS) diagnostic framework to understand the linkages between changes in the flow of energy and moisture within the monsoons. We focus on the Asian Summer Monsoon system and utilize a series of atmosphere‐land and atmosphere‐land‐ocean simulations to understand the connection between fluxes and monsoons. Uncoupled simulations with prescribed sea surface temperatures indicate that decreases in NGMS over land are important in explaining precipitation increases in response to both sea surface temperature and CO 2 increases. In fully coupled experiments, NGMS decreases remain an important contributor to the increase in P‐E, but the coupled simulations highlight the importance of consistent ocean and land responses in interpreting the monsoon changes. This study indicates that transient eddy fluxes play an important role in NGMS decreases and that a time‐mean view of the monsoon circulations is insufficient to quantify the link between future changes in the fluxes of energy and moisture. Compensation between dynamic and thermodynamic components of vertical moist static energy advection occurs, with the thermodynamic contribution dominating. The compensation is shown to be sensitive to relative humidity, with higher relative humidity leading to a stronger thermodynamic component.

Harrop, Bryce E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate Conundrum: A Wet or Dry European and Northern African Climate During the Middle Miocene

Abstract End of 21st‐century hydroclimate projections suggest an expansion of subtropical dry zones, with Mediterranean and Sahel regions becoming much drier. However, paleobotanical assemblage evidence from the middle Miocene (17‐12 Ma), suggests both regions were instead humid environments. Here we show that by modifying regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in an Earth System Model (CESM1.2) simulation of the middle Miocene, the increased ocean evaporation and integrated water vapor flux overrides any drying effects associated with warming‐induced land‐surface evaporation driven by atmospheric CO 2 concentrations. These modifications markedly reduce the bias in the model‐data comparison for this period. A vegetation model (BIOME4) forced with simulated climatologies predicts both regions were dominated by mixed forest, which is largely consistent with the paleobotanical record. This study unveils the potential for wetter subtropical Mediterranean climates associated with warming, presenting an alternative scenario from future drying projections with localized SST warming governing regional climate change.

Acosta, R. P.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Degradation in PV Encapsulant Strength of Attachment: An Interlaboratory Study Towards a Climate-Specific Test

Reduced strength of attachment of the encapsulant resulting from the outdoor environment, including ultraviolet (UV) radiation, may decrease photovoltaic (PV) module lifetime by enabling widespread corrosion of internal components. To date, few studies exist showing how the adhesion of PV components varies with environmental stress. We have conducted an interlaboratory experiment to provide an understanding that will be used to develop climatic specific module tests. Factors examined in the study included the UV light source (lamp type), temperature, and humidity to be proposed for use in accelerated aging tests. A poly (ethylene-co-vinyl acetate) (EVA) formulation often used in veteran PV installations was studied using a compressive shear test - to quantify the strength of attachment at the EVA/glass interface. Replicate laminated glass/polymer/glass coupon specimens were weathered at 12 institutions using a variety of indoor chambers or field aging. Shear strength, shear strain, and toughness were measured using a mechanical load-frame for the compressive shear test, with subsequent optical imaging and electron microscopy of the separated surfaces.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Context for interpreting equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response from the CMIP6 Earth system models

For the current generation of earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the range of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS, a hypothetical value of global warming at equilibrium for a doubling of CO 2 ) is 1.8°C to 5.6°C, the largest of any generation of models dating to the 1990s. Meanwhile, the range of transient climate response (TCR, the surface temperature warming around the time of CO 2 doubling in a 1% per year CO 2 increase simulation) for the CMIP6 models of 1.7°C (1.3°C to 3.0°C) is only slightly larger than for the CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Here we review and synthesize the latest developments in ECS and TCR values in CMIP, compile possible reasons for the current values as supplied by the modeling groups, and highlight future directions. Cloud feedbacks and cloud-aerosol interactions are the most likely contributors to the high values and increased range of ECS in CMIP6.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Toward an improved estimate of climate sensitivity and its application to key climate metrics (Final Report)

The tendency of climate models to overstate warming in the tropical troposphere has long been noted. Here we examine individual runs from 38 newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6) models and show that the warm bias is now observable globally as well. We compare CMIP6 runs against observational series drawn from satellites, weather balloons, and reanalysis products. We focus on the 1979–2014 interval, the maximum span for which all observational products are available and for which models were run using historically observed forcings. For lower-troposphere and midtroposphere layers both globally and in the tropics, all 38 models overpredict warming in every target observational analog, in most cases significantly so, and the average differences between models and observations are statistically significant. We present evidence that consistency with observed warming would require lower model Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) values.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Rainbows and Climate Change: A tutorial on climate model diagnostics and parameterization

Earth System Models (ESMs) must represent processes below the grid scale of a model using representations (parameterizations) of physical and chemical processes. As a tutorial exercise to understand diagnostics and parameterization, this work presents a representation of rainbows for an ESM: the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2). Using the 'state' of the model, basic physical laws, and some assumptions, we generate a representation of this unique optical phenomena as a diagnostic output. Rainbow occurrence and it's possible changes are related to cloud occurrence and rain formation which are critical uncertainties for climate change prediction. The work highlights issues which are typical of many diagnostics parameterizations such as assumptions, uncertain parameters and the difficulty of evaluation against uncertain observations. Results agree qualitatively with limited available global 'observations' of Rainbows. Rainbows are seen in expected locations in the sub-tropics over the ocean where broken clouds and frequent precipitation occurs. The diurnal peak is in the morning over ocean and in the evening over land. The representation of rainbows is found to be quantitatively sensitive to the assumed amount of cloudiness and the amount of stratiform rain. Rainbows are projected to have decreased, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere, due to aerosol pollution effects increasing cloud coverage since 1850. In the future, continued climate change is projected to decrease cloud cover, associated with a positive cloud feedback. As a result the rainbow diagnostic projects that rainbows will increase in the future, with the largest changes at mid-latitudes. The diagnostic may be useful for assessing cloud parameterizations, and is an exercise in how to build and test parameterizations of atmospheric phenomena.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1979

Differences between seasonal and mean annual energy balance model calculations of climate and climate sensitivity

The paper extends a simple Budyko-Sellers mean annual energy balance climate model with diffusive transport to include a seasonal cycle. In the model the latitudinal distribution of the zonal average surface temperature is represented by Legendre polynomials and its time-dependence by a Fourier sine-cosine series, and it has three parameters adjusted so that the observed amplitudes of the Northern Hemisphere zonal mean surface temperature are recovered. The seasonal model is used to reveal how the annual mean climate and the sensitivity to changes in incident radiation differ from the predictions obtained with the corresponding mean annual model. The distribution of the incident solar radiation in the models is shown to be insensitive to changes in the eccentricity and the longitude of perihelion and sensitive only to changes in the obliquity of the earth, and for past orbital changes both the seasonal and the mean annual model fail to produce glacial advances of the magnitude that are thought to have occurred.

North, G. R.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Data management support for selected climate data sets using the climate data access system

The functional capabilities of the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) Climate Data Access System (CDAS), an interactive data storage and retrieval system, and the archival data sets which this system manages are discussed. The CDAS manages several climate-related data sets, such as the First Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Global Experiment (FGGE) Level 2-b and Level 3-a data tapes. CDAS data management support consists of three basic functions: (1) an inventory capability which allows users to search or update a disk-resident inventory describing the contents of each tape in a data set, (2) a capability to depict graphically the spatial coverage of a tape in a data set, and (3) a data set selection capability which allows users to extract portions of a data set using criteria such as time, location, and data source/parameter and output the data to tape, user terminal, or system printer. This report includes figures that illustrate menu displays and output listings for each CDAS function.

Reph, M. G.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Structure and energetics of standing eddies in the winter Northern Hemisphere simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model and the GLA Climate Model

The structure and maintenance of standing eddies in the NCAR Community Climate Model and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheres Climate Model are examined. The energy equations and data used in the study, and the differences between the two GCMs are discussed. The three-dimensional structure (height, temperature, and vertical velocity) and potential and kinetic energies and thermal and dynamic interactions of the standing eddies are described.

Lee, Yen-Huei↗
NASA NTRS1990

Climate Fluctuations and Climate Sensitivity

Some evidence is presented that the main part of the atmospheric climate system is such that small forcings in the heat balance lead to linear responses in the surface temperature field. By examining first a noise forced energy-balance climate model and then comparing it with a long run of a highly symmetrical general circulation model, one finds a remarkable connection between spatial autocorrelation statistics and the thermal influence function for a point heat source. These findings are brought together to indicate that this particular climatological field may be largely governed by linear processes.

North, Gerald R.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Springtime soil moisture, natural climatic variability, and North American drought as simulated by the NCAR Community Climate Model 1

Previous results concerning the role that summertime soil moisture reductions can play in amplifying or maintaining North American droughts are extended to include the role of springtime soil moisture reductions and the role that natural climatic variability, as expressed in soil moisture, can play. General circulation model (GCM) simulations with the NCAR Community Climate Model have been made with initial desert-like soil moisture anomalies imposed on 1 May and on 1 March. The May simulation maintained the imposed anomaly throughout the summer, while in the March simulation the anomaly was ameliorated within one month. Thus, the timing of soil moisture reductions may be crucial. A 10-year model control integration with prescribed sea surface temperatures yielded 1 year with late spring and summer soil moisture values similar to those of the 1 May anomaly simulation. This suggests that occasional widespread North American droughts may be an inherent feature of at least the GCM employed for this study. The results also demonstrate the important role played by moisture transport from the Gulf of Mexico in modulating or ameliorating drought conditions for much of the south-central United States, a topic that requires considerable further investigation.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗
NASA NTRS2000

In Search of Sun-Climate Connection Using Solar Irradiance Measurements and Climate Records

The Earth's temperature has risen approximately 0.5 degree-C in the last 150 years. Because the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide has increased nearly 30% since the industrial revolution, a common conjecture, supported by various climate models, is that anthropogenic greenhouse gases have contributed to global warming. Another probable factor for the warming is the natural variation of solar irradiance. Although the variation is as small as 0.1 % it is hypothesized that it contributes to part of the temperature rise. Warmer or cooler ocean temperature at one part of the Globe may manifest as abnormally wet or dry weather patterns some months or years later at another part of the globe. Furthermore, the lower atmosphere can be affected through its coupling with the stratosphere, after the stratospheric ozone absorbs the ultraviolet portion of the solar irradiance. In this paper, we use wavelet transforms based on Morlet wavelet to analyze the time-frequency properties in several datasets, including the Radiation Budget measurements, the long-term total solar irradiance time series, the long-term temperature at two locations for the North and the South Hemisphere. The main solar cycle, approximately 11 years, are identified in the long-term total solar irradiance time series. The wavelet transform of the temperature datasets show annual cycle but not the solar cycle. Some correlation is seen between the length of the solar cycle extracted from the wavelet transform and the North Hemisphere temperature time series. The absence of the 11-year cycle in a time series does not necessarily imply that the geophysical parameter is not affected by the solar cycle; rather it simply reflects the complex nature of the Earth's response to climate forcings.

Kiang, Richard K.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Investigating Downscaling Methods and Evaluating Climate Models for Use in Estimating Regional Water Resources in Mountainous Regions under Changing Climatic Conditions

The purpose of this three-year study is to develop and evaluate techniques to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of climate change in mountainous areas. Three main objectives are set out in the proposal. (1) To develop and evaluate transfer functions to link tropospheric circulation to regional snowfall. (2) To evaluate a suite of General Circulation Models (GCMs) for use in estimating synoptic scale circulation and the resultant regional snowfall. And (3) to estimate the range of potential hydrological impacts of changing climate in the two case study areas: the Upper Colorado River basin, and the Catskill Mountains of southeastern New York State. Both regions provide water to large populations.

Frei, Allan↗
NASA NTRS2011

Data Serving Climate Simulation Science at the NASA Center for Climate Simulation

The NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS) provides high performance computational resources, a multi-petabyte archive, and data services in support of climate simulation research and other NASA-sponsored science. This talk describes the NCCS's data-centric architecture and processing, which are evolving in anticipation of researchers' growing requirements for higher resolution simulations and increased data sharing among NCCS users and the external science community.

Salmon, Ellen M.↗