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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Perennial grass bioenergy cropping systems: Impacts on soil fauna and implications for soil carbon accrual

ABSTRACT Perennial grass energy crop production is necessary for the successful and sustainable expansion of bioenergy in North America. Numerous environmental advantages are associated with perennial grass cropping systems, including their potential to promote soil carbon accrual. Despite growing research interest in the abiotic and biotic factors driving soil carbon cycling within perennial grass cropping systems, soil fauna remain a critical yet largely unexplored component of these ecosystems. By regulating microbial activity and organic matter decomposition dynamics, soil fauna influence soil carbon stability with potentially significant implications for soil carbon accrual. We begin by reviewing the diverse, predominantly indirect effects of soil fauna on soil carbon dynamics in the context of perennial grass cropping systems. Since the impacts of perennial grass energy crop production on soil fauna will mediate their potential contributions to soil carbon accrual, we then discuss how perennial grass energy crop traits, diversity, and management influence soil fauna community structure and activity. We assert that continued research into the interactions of soil fauna, microbes, and organic matter will be important for advancing our understanding of soil carbon dynamics in perennial grass cropping systems. Furthermore, explicit consideration of soil faunal effects on soil carbon can improve our ability to predict changes in soil carbon following perennial grass cropping system establishment. We conclude by addressing the major knowledge gaps that should be prioritized to better understand and model the complex connections between perennial grass bioenergy systems, soil fauna, and carbon accrual.

sustainability↗
NASA NTRS2016

Carbon Fiber Strand Tensile Failure Dynamic Event Characterization

There are few if any clear, visual, and detailed images of carbon fiber strand failures under tension useful for determining mechanisms, sequences of events, different types of failure modes, etc. available to researchers. This makes discussion of physics of failure difficult. It was also desired to find out whether the test article-to-test rig interface (grip) played a part in some failures. These failures have nothing to do with stress rupture failure, thus representing a source of waste for the larger 13-00912 investigation into that specific failure type. Being able to identify or mitigate any competing failure modes would improve the value of the 13-00912 test data. The beginnings of the solution to these problems lay in obtaining images of strand failures useful for understanding physics of failure and the events leading up to failure. Necessary steps include identifying imaging techniques that result in useful data, using those techniques to home in on where in a strand and when in the sequence of events one should obtain imaging data.

Johnson, Kenneth L.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Modeling sediment diagenesis processes on riverbed to better quantify aquatic carbon fluxes and stocks in a small watershed of the Mid-Atlantic region

Background: Despite the widely recognized importance of aquatic processes for bridging gaps in the global carbon cycle, there is still a lack of understanding of the role of riverbed processes for carbon flows and stocks in aquatic environments. Here, we added a sediment diagenesis and sediment carbon (C) resuspension module into the SWAT-C model and tested it for simulating both particulate organic C (POC) and dissolved organic C (DOC) fluxes using 4 years of monthly observations (2014–2017) in the Tuckahoe watershed (TW) in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region. Results: Sensitivity analyses show that parameters that regulate POC deposition in river networks are more sensitive than those that determine C resuspension from sediments. Further analyses indicate that allochthonous contributions to POC and DOC are about 36.6 and 46 kgC ha –1 year –1 , respectively, while autochthonous contributions are less than 0.72 kgC ha –1 year –1 for both POC and DOC (less than 2% of allochthonous sources). The net deposition of POC on the riverbed (i.e., 11.4 kgC ha –1 year –1 ) retained ca. 31% of terrestrial inputs of POC. In addition, average annual buried C was 0.34 kgC ha –1 year –1 , accounting for only 1% of terrestrial POC inputs or 3% of net POC deposition. The results indicate that about 79% of deposited organic C was converted to inorganic C (CH 4 and CO 2 ) in the sediment and eventually released into the overlying water column. Conclusion: This study serves as an exploratory study on estimation of C fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic environments at the watershed scale. We demonstrated capabilities of the SWAT-C model to simulate C cycling from uplands to riverine ecosystems and estimated C sinks and sources in aquatic environments. Overall, the results highlight the importance of including carbon cycle dynamics within the riverbed in order to accurately estimate aquatic carbon fluxes and stocks. The new capabilities of SWAT-C are expected to serve as a useful tool to account for those processes in watershed C balance assessment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Structural water in amorphous carbonate minerals: ab initio molecular dynamics simulations of X-ray pair distribution experiments

Water is known to play a controlling role in directing mineralization pathways and stabilizing metastable amorphous intermediates in hydrous carbonate mineral MCO 3 ·nH 2 O systems, where M 2+ is a divalent metal cation. Despite this recognition, the nature of the controls on crystallization is poorly understood, largely owing to the difficulty in characterizing the dynamically disordered structures of amorphous intermediates at the atomic scale. Here, we present a series of atomistic models, derived from ab initio molecular dynamics simulation, across a range of experimentally relevant cations (M = Ca, Mg, Sr) and hydration levels (0 ≤ n ≤ 2). Theoretical simulations of the dependence of the X-ray pair distribution function on the hydration level n show good agreement with available experimental data and thus provide further evidence for a lack of significant nanoscale structure in amorphous carbonates. Upon dehydration, the metal coordination number does not change significantly, but the relative extent of water dissociation increases, indicating that a thermodynamic driving force exists for water dissociation to accompany dehydration. Mg strongly favors monodentate conformation of carbonate ligands and shows a marked preference to exchange monodentate carbonate O for water O upon hydration, whereas Ca and Sr exchange mono- and bidentate carbonate ligands with comparable frequency. Finally, water forms an extensive hydrogen bond network among both water and carbonate groups that exhibits frequent proton transfers for all three cations considered suggesting that proton mobility is likely predominantly due to water dissociation and proton transfer reactions rather than molecular water diffusion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2021

The fortedata R package: open-science datasets from a manipulative experiment testing forest resilience

The fortedata R package is an open data notebook from the Forest Resilience Threshold Experiment (FoRTE) – a modeling and manipulative field experiment that tests the effects of disturbance severity and disturbance type on carbon cycling dynamics in a temperate forest. Package data consist of measurements of carbon pools and fluxes and ancillary measurements to help analyze and interpret carbon cycling over time. Currently the package includes data and metadata from the first three FoRTE field seasons, serves as a central, updatable resource for the FoRTE project team, and is intended as a resource for external users over the course of the experiment and in perpetuity. Further, it supports all associated FoRTE publications, analyses, and modeling efforts. This increases efficiency, consistency, compatibility, and productivity while minimizing duplicated effort and error propagation that can arise as a function of a large, distributed and collaborative effort. More broadly, fortedata represents an innovative, collaborative way of approaching science that unites and expedites the delivery of complementary datasets to the broader scientific community, increasing transparency and reproducibility of taxpayer-funded science. The fortedata package is available via GitHub: https://github.com/FoRTExperiment/fortedata (last access: 19 February 2021), and detailed documentation on the access, used, and applications of fortedata are available at https://fortexperiment.github.io/fortedata/ (last access: 19 February 2021). The first public release, version 1.0.1 is also archived at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4399601 (Atkins et al., 2020b). All data products are also available outside of the package as .csv files: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.13499148.v1 (Atkins et al., 2020c).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
NASA NTRS1997

Molecular Dynamics Simulation of a Multi-Walled Carbon Nanotube Based Gear

We used molecular dynamics to investigate the properties of a multi-walled carbon nanotube based gear. Previous work computationally suggested that molecular gears fashioned from (14,0) single-walled carbon nanotubes operate well at 50-100 gigahertz. The gears were formed from nanotubes with teeth added via a benzyne reaction known to occur with C60. A modified, parallelized version of Brenner's potential was used to model interatomic forces within each molecule. A Leonard-Jones 6-12 potential was used for forces between molecules. The gear in this study was based on the smallest multi-walled nanotube supported by some experimental evidence. Each gear was a (52,0) nanotube surrounding a (37,10) nanotube with approximate 20.4 and 16,8 A radii respectively. These sizes were chosen to be consistent with inter-tube spacing observed by and were slightly larger than graphite inter-layer spacings. The benzyne teeth were attached via 2+4 cycloaddition to exterior of the (52,0) tube. 2+4 bonds were used rather than the 2+2 bonds observed by Hoke since 2+4 bonds are preferred by naphthalene and quantum calculations by Jaffe suggest that 2+4 bonds are preferred on carbon nanotubes of sufficient diameter. One gear was 'powered' by forcing the atoms near the end of the outside buckytube to rotate to simulate a motor. A second gear was allowed to rotate by keeping the atoms near the end of its outside buckytube on a cylinder. The ends of both gears were constrained to stay in an approximately constant position relative to each other, simulating a casing, to insure that the gear teeth meshed. The stiff meshing aromatic gear teeth transferred angular momentum from the powered gear to the driven gear. The simulation was performed in a vacuum and with a software thermostat. Preliminary results suggest that the powered gear had trouble turning the driven gear without slip. The larger radius and greater mass of these gears relative to the (14,0) gears previously studied requires a smaller rotation rate and multiple rows of teeth to avoid excessive force on the gear teeth resulting, in slip and failure of the driven gear to turn. We hope that studies such as these will eventually lead to synthesis of components that can be assembled into atomically precise fullerene machines. These machines, in turn, may someday be used in machine-phase fullerene materials with remarkable properties.

Han, Jie↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring the High-Pressure Phases of Carbon through X-ray Diffraction of Dynamic Compression Experiments on Sandia’s Z Pulsed Power Facility

The carbon phase diagram is rich with polymorphs which possess very different physical and optical properties ideal for different scientific and engineering applications. An understanding of the dynamically driven phase transitions in carbon is particularly important for applications in inertial confinement fusion, as well as planetary and meteorite impact histories. Experiments on the Z Pulsed Power Facility at Sandia National Laboratories generate dynamically compressed high-pressure states of matter with exceptional uniformity, duration, and size that are ideal for investigations of fundamental material properties. X-ray diffraction (XRD) is an important material physics measurement because it enables direct observation of the strain and compression of the crystal lattice, and it enables the detection and identification of phase transitions. Several unique challenges of dynamic compression experiments on Z prevent using XRD systems typically utilized at other dynamic compression facilities, so novel XRD diagnostics have been designed and implemented. We performed experiments on Z to shock compress carbon (pyrolytic graphite) samples to pressures of 150–320 GPa. The Z-Beamlet Laser generated Mn-Heα (6.2 keV) X-rays to probe the shock-compressed carbon sample, and the new XRD diagnostics measured changes in the diffraction pattern as the carbon transformed into its high-pressure phases. Quantitative analysis of the dynamic XRD patterns in combination with continuum velocimetry information constrained the stability fields and melting of high-pressure carbon polymorphs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Dated soil C–N–P profiles, water quality, and chamber fluxes across Ohio and Michigan wetlands (2024–2025)

This dataset includes dated soil core chemistry (bulk density, phosphorus, nitrogen and carbon concentrations), water quality, and chamber flux measurements collected from wetlands in the Midwest United States—12 sites in Ohio, one site in Indiana, one site in Michigan—collected in the spring or summer of 2024 or 2025, all in (.csv) format. These data were generated to examine how wetland restoration, management activities, and time since restoration affect biogeochemical processes, carbon sequestration, nutrient accumulation, water quality, and greenhouse gas emissions. Specifically, these data aim to investigate how restored wetlands differ from natural wetlands in terms of carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus dynamics, as well as carbon dioxide and methane fluxes. Also included are surface and porewater quality parameters and chamber flux measurements across these different wetlands. Sampling was conducted at various sites representing a range of restoration stages, from about 4 years post-restoration up to 105 years post-restoration, and also includes a natural wetland used as a reference in Michigan. These data can be used to determine carbon sequestration rates, nutrient cycling, and to enhance our understanding of biogeochemical responses to wetland restoration in temperate ecosystems. This data package contains (1) a csv file (Water_Quality.csv) containing water quality data (dissolved organic carbon, total dissolved nitrogen, and temperature) organized by location; (2) a csv file (Soil_C_N_P_Seq.csv) containing carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations at each soil level and time of each soil level, as well as their sequestration rates; (3) a csv file (CH4_CO2_Flux.csv) including methane and carbon dioxide fluxes that were measured with a chamber; (4) a file-level metadata (FLMD.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; (5) a data dictionary (DD.csv) file that contains terms/column headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type; and (6) a locations metadata file (Location_metadata.csv).

Earth Science > Atmosphere > Atmospheric Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2020

Coastal Wetland Carbon Processes in a Warmer Climate (Final Report)

Coastal wetlands are global hotspots of carbon storage. Marshes, mangroves, and seagrass meadows account for about half of the total marine soil carbon budget and bury carbon at rates roughly equivalent to terrestrial forests despite occupying just 2.5% of Earth’s land area. Coastal wetlands have recently been recognized as important for storing carbon, but the future sink strength and carbon stock stability of these systems is uncertain because global change drivers such as temperature and elevated CO 2 disturb the complex ecology that drives high rates of soil carbon sequestration. The dynamics of coastal wetland carbon pools are not presently represented in earth system models. Our goals are to understand the influence of warming and elevated CO 2 on C cycling and to forecast the stability of tidal wetland soil carbon pools at the terrestrial-aquatic interface. We designed and implemented a novel field manipulation of elevated CO 2 and temperature and operated it from 2016 to 2020. We learned that plant communities and microbial communities respond differently to rising temperature, and that the net effects of these responses means that a modest amount of warming will increase tidal marsh carbon sequestration, while warming above that level will diminish the potential for additional carbon sequestration. In mathematical terms the system showed non-linear responses which are important for building forecast models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2016

Disturbance and the Carbon Balance of US Forests: A Quantitative Review of Impacts from Harvests, Fires, Insects, and Droughts

Disturbances are a major determinant of forest carbon stocks and uptake. They generally reduce land carbon stocks but also initiate a regrowth legacy that contributes substantially to the contemporary rate of carbon stock increase in US forestlands. As managers and policy makers increasingly look to forests for climate protection and mitigation, and because of increasing concern about changes in disturbance intensity and frequency, there is a need for synthesis and integration of current understanding about the role of disturbances and other processes in governing forest carbon cycle dynamics, and the likely future of this and other sinks for atmospheric carbon. This paper aims to address that need by providing a quantitative review of the distribution, extent and carbon impacts of the major disturbances active in the US. We also review recent trends in disturbances, climate, and other global environmental changes and consider their individual and collective contributions to the US carbon budget now and in the likely future. Lastly, we identify some key challenges and opportunities for future research needed to improve current understanding, advance predictive capabilities, and inform forest management in the face of these pressures. Harvest is found to be the most extensive disturbance both in terms of area and carbon impacts, followed by fire, windthrow and bark beetles, and lastly droughts. Collectively these lead to the gross loss of about 200 Tg C y(exp -1) in live biomass annually across the conterminous US. At the same time, the net change in forest carbon stocks is positive (190 Tg C y(exp -1)), indicating not only forest resilience but also an apparently large response to growth enhancements such as fertilization by CO2 and nitrogen. Uncertainty about disturbance legacies, disturbance interactions, likely trends, and global change factors make the future of the US forest carbon sink unclear. While there is scope for management to enhance carbon sinks in US forests, tradeoffs with other values and uses are likely to significantly limit practical implementation. Continued and expanded remote sensing and field-based monitoring capabilities and manipulative experimentation are needed to improve understanding of the US forest carbon sink, and assess how disturbance processes are responding to the pressures of global environmental change. In addition, continued development and application of holistic, decision support tools that consider a range of forest values are needed to enable managers and policy makers to use the best available information for guiding forest resources now and into the future.

Williams, Christopher A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Knowledge-guided machine learning can improve carbon cycle quantification in agroecosystems

Abstract Accurate and cost-effective quantification of the carbon cycle for agroecosystems at decision-relevant scales is critical to mitigating climate change and ensuring sustainable food production. However, conventional process-based or data-driven modeling approaches alone have large prediction uncertainties due to the complex biogeochemical processes to model and the lack of observations to constrain many key state and flux variables. Here we propose a Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning (KGML) framework that addresses the above challenges by integrating knowledge embedded in a process-based model, high-resolution remote sensing observations, and machine learning (ML) techniques. Using the U.S. Corn Belt as a testbed, we demonstrate that KGML can outperform conventional process-based and black-box ML models in quantifying carbon cycle dynamics. Our high-resolution approach quantitatively reveals 86% more spatial detail of soil organic carbon changes than conventional coarse-resolution approaches. Moreover, we outline a protocol for improving KGML via various paths, which can be generalized to develop hybrid models to better predict complex earth system dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Effect of Assimilating SMAP Soil Moisture on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes through Direct Insertion in a Land Surface Model

Soil moisture impacts the biosphere–atmosphere exchange of CO2 and CH4 and plays an important role in the terrestrial carbon cycle. A better representation of soil moisture would improve coupled carbon–water dynamics in terrestrial ecosystem models and could potentially improve model estimates of large-scale carbon fluxes and climate feedbacks. Here, we investigate using soil moisture observations from the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite mission to inform simulated carbon fluxes in the global terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-wsl. Results suggest that the direct insertion of SMAP reduces the bias in simulated soil moisture at in situ measurement sites by 40%, with a greater improvement at temperate sites. A wavelet analysis between the model and measurements from 26 FLUXNET sites suggests that the assimilated run modestly reduces the bias of simulated carbon fluxes for boreal and subtropical sites at 1–2-month time scales. At regional scales, SMAP soil moisture can improve the estimated responses of CO2 and CH4 fluxes to extreme events such as the 2018 European drought and the 2019 rainfall event in the Sudd (Southern Sudan) wetlands. The simulated improvements to land–surface carbon fluxes using the direct insertion of SMAP are shown across a variety of timescales, which suggests the potential of SMAP soil moisture in improving the model representation of carbon–water coupling.

SMAP↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating the carbon footprint of computational fluid dynamics

In this study, computational resources have grown exponentially in the past few decades. These machines make possible research and design in fields as diverse as medicine, astronomy, and engineering. Despite ever-increasing computational capabilities, direct simulation of complex systems has remained challenging owing to the degrees of freedom involved. At the cusp of exascale computing, high-resolution simulation of practical problems with minimal model assumptions may soon experience a renaissance. However, growing reliance on modern computers comes at the cost of a growing carbon footprint. To illustrate this, we examine historic computations in fluid dynamics where larger computers have afforded the opportunity to simulate flows at increasingly relevant Reynolds numbers. Under a variety of flow configurations, the carbon footprint of such simulations is found to scale roughly with the fourth power of Reynolds number. This is primarily explained by the computation cost in core-hours, which is also described by similar scaling, though regional differences in renewable energy use also play a role. Using the established correlation, we examine a large database of simulations to develop estimates for the carbon footprint of computational fluid dynamics in a given year. Collectively, the analysis provides an additional benchmark for new computations where, in addition to balancing considerations of model fidelity, carbon footprint should also be considered.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of nitrogen enrichment on tree carbon allocation: A global synthesis

Aim: Increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition may have profound effects on tree carbon allocation dynamics. However, a comprehensive understanding of how nitro-gen (N) enrichment influences carbon (C) allocation across plant functional processes and tree organs in individual trees remains elusive. Location: Global forest ecosystems. Time period: 1990–2018. Major taxa studied: Trees. Methods: We compiled data from 75 N addition experiments and conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the responses of C source (photosynthesis), sinks (growth and respiration) and storage (non-structural carbohydrate concentrations) in different tree organs (foliage, above-ground wood and roots) to N enrichment. Results: N enrichment significantly enhanced C supply via photosynthesis (+39.6%, n = 128). C allocation to growth (biomass increment/production) significantly in-creased in foliage (+15.9%, n = 68) and above-ground wood (+31.8%, n = 64; bole, branch, stem and/or twig) with increasing N availability, but not in roots, whereas allocation increased in roots via increasing fine root turnover rate (+22.6%, n = 11). N fertilization significantly increased C allocation to respiration in above-ground wood (+46.6%, n = 12) and roots (+5.5%, n = 57), but not in foliage. N addition decreased non-structural carbohydrate (NSC) concentrations in foliage (-5.4%, n = 16) and roots (-5.0%, n = 21), but increased NSC in above-ground wood (+6.1%, n = 22). In addition, N enrichment effects were strongly affected by moderator variables. Main conclusions: Our results demonstrate that N addition increased C allocation to growth and respiration more strongly than C allocation to NSC storage, and increased C allocation to above-ground parts more strongly than to below-ground parts. Our results are useful for better understanding the response of tree functional processes at organ level to N enrichment. The existing data also reveal that more long-term ex-perimental studies on mature trees in tropical and boreal forests are urgently needed to provide a basis for forecasting tree responses to N enrichment at the global scale.

Li, Weibin↗
NASA NTRS2021

Reconciling Carbon-cycle Processes from Ecosystem to Global Scales

Understanding carbon (C) dynamics from ecosystem to global scales remains a challenge. Although expansion of global carbon dioxide (CO2) observatories makes it possible to estimate C-cycle processes from ecosystem to global scales, these estimates do not necessarily agree. At the continental US scale, only 5% of C fixed through photosynthesis remains as net ecosystem exchange (NEE), but ecosystem measurements indicate that only 2% of fixed C remains in grasslands, whereas as much as 30% remains in needleleaf forests. The wet and warm Southeast has the highest gross primary productivity and the relatively wet and cool Midwest has the highest NEE, indicating important spatial mismatches. Newly available satellite and atmospheric data can be combined in innovative ways to identify potential C loss pathways to reconcile these spatial mismatches. Independent datasets compiled from terrestrial and aquatic environments can now be combined to advance C-cycle science across the land–water interface.

carbon cycle↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of a dynamic grid mix and climate on operational carbon emissions modeling for different building typologies and climate zones

Calculating operational carbon emissions through a building’s lifecycle is complex due to the dynamic nature of influencing factors such as climate and energy grid mix. This paper introduces a novel methodology for modeling 30-year operational carbon impacts of buildings and applies this method to mid-rise office and residential typologies across various US climate zones. The method accounts for these temporal variabilities using new and scarcely cited data sources. Key findings indicate that future changes in the climate, while impactful, play a relatively modest role in operational carbon emissions compared to significant reductions with modeling scenarios using the projected decarbonization of the electricity grid. Here, the study also finds that using annual, month-hourly, or hourly grid emission factors have a minimal impact on carbon accounting, except in certain climates and program types where emission patterns do not align with a building’s energy consumption. Warmer climates like Miami, Florida and Tucson, Arizona, which rely heavily on cooling, demonstrate larger variations in carbon emissions when using higher temporal resolution emission factors. Ultimately, this study underscores the critical role of grid decarbonization in reducing long-term emissions and the importance of incorporating this variable in life cycle assessment (LCA) modeling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗