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The UDF05 Follow-up of the HUDF: I. The Faint-End Slope of the Lyman-Break Galaxy Population at zeta approx. 5

We present the UDF05 project, a HST Large Program of deep ACS (F606W, F775W, F850LP, and NICMOS (Fll0W, Fl60W) imaging of three fields, two of which coincide with the NICP1-4 NICMOS parallel observations of the Hubble Ultra Deep Field (HUDF). In this first paper we use the ACS data for the NICP12 field, as well as the original HUDF ACS data, to measure the UV Luminosity Function (LF) of z approximately 5 Lyman Break Galaxies (LBGs) down to very faint levels. Specifically, based on a V - i, i - z selection criterion, we identify a sample of 101 and 133 candidate z approximately 5 galaxies down to z(sub 850) = 28.5 and 29.25 magnitudes in the NICP12 field and in the HUDF, respectively. Using an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations we derive corrections for observational biases and selection effects, and construct the rest-frame 1400 Angstroms LBG LF over the range M(sub 1400) = [-22.2, -17.1], i.e. down to approximately 0.04 L(sub *) at z = 5. We show that: (i) Different assumptions for the SED distribution of the LBG population, dust properties and intergalactic absorption result in a 25% variation in the number density of LBGs at z = 5 (ii) Under consistent assumptions for dust properties and intergalactic absorption, the HUDF is about 30% under-dense in z = 5 LBGs relative to the NICP12 field, a variation which is well explained by cosmic variance; (iii) The faint-end slope of the LF is independent of the specific assumptions for the input physical parameters, and has a value of alpha approximately -1.6, similar to the faint-end slope of the LF that has been measured for LBGs at z = 3 and z = 6. Our study therefore supports no variation in the faint-end of the LBG LF over the whole redshift range z = 3 to z = 6. The comparison with theoretical predictions suggests that (a,) the majority of the stars in the z = 5 LBG population are produced with a Top-Heavy IMF in merger-driven starbursts, and that (b) possibly, either the fraction of stellar mass produced in starburst, or the fraction of high mass stars in the bursts is increased towards the bright end of the LF.

Oesch, P. A.↗

Program Analyzes Radar Altimeter Data

A computer program has been written to perform several analyses of radar altimeter data. The program was designed to improve on previous methods of analysis of altimeter engineering data by (1) facilitating and accelerating the analysis of large amounts of data in a more direct manner and (2) improving the ability to estimate performance of radar-altimeter instrumentation and provide data corrections. The data in question are openly available to the international scientific community and can be downloaded from anonymous file-transfer- protocol (FTP) locations that are accessible via links from altimetry Web sites. The software estimates noise in range measurements, estimates corrections for electromagnetic bias, and performs statistical analyses on various parameters for comparison of different altimeters. Whereas prior techniques used to perform similar analyses of altimeter range noise require comparison of data from repetitions of satellite ground tracks, the present software uses a high-pass filtering technique to obtain similar results from single satellite passes. Elimination of the requirement for repeat-track analysis facilitates the analysis of large amounts of satellite data to assess subtle variations in range noise.

Vandemark, Doug↗

The Impacts of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulations of U. S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics parameterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT Center to select NOAA/NWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boundary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage of lightning activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗

The Impact of Microphysics and Planetary Boundary Layer Physics on Model Simulation of U.S. Deep South Summer Convection

Inspection of output from various configurations of high-resolution, explicit convection forecast models such as the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model indicates significant sensitivity to the choices of model physics pararneterizations employed. Some of the largest apparent sensitivities are related to the specifications of the cloud microphysics and planetary boundary layer physics packages. In addition, these sensitivities appear to be especially pronounced for the weakly-sheared, multicell modes of deep convection characteristic of the Deep South of the United States during the boreal summer. Possible ocean-land sensitivities also argue for further examination of the impacts of using unique ocean-land surface initialization datasets provided by the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRn Center to select NOAAlNWS weather forecast offices. To obtain better quantitative understanding of these sensitivities and also to determine the utility of the ocean-land initialization data, we have executed matrices of regional WRF forecasts for selected convective events near Mobile, AL (MOB), and Houston, TX (HGX). The matrices consist of identically initialized WRF 24-h forecasts using any of eight microphysics choices and any of three planetary boWldary layer choices. The resulting 24 simulations performed for each event within either the MOB or HGX regions are then compared to identify the sensitivities of various convective storm metrics to the physics choices. Particular emphasis is placed on sensitivities of precipitation timing, intensity, and coverage, as well as amount and coverage oflightuing activity diagnosed from storm kinematics and graupel in the mixed phase layer. The results confirm impressions gleaned from study of the behavior of variously configured WRF runs contained in the ensembles produced each spring at the Center for the Analysis and Prediction of Storms, but with the benefit of more straightforward control of the physics package choices. The design of the experiments thus allows for more direct interpretation of the sensitivities to each possible physics combination. The results should assist forecasters in their efforts to anticipate and correct for possible biases in simulated WRF convection patterns, and help the modeling community refine their model parameterizations.

McCaul, Eugene W., Jr.↗

Cassini Attitude Control Operations - Guidelines Levied on Science to Extend Reaction Wheel Life

The Cassini spacecraft was launched on October 15, 1997 and arrived at Saturn on June 30, 2004. It has performed detailed observations and remote sensing of Saturn, its rings, and its satellites since that time. Cassini deployed the European-built Huygens probe, which descended through the Titan atmosphere (Saturn's largest moon) and landed on its surface on January 14, 2005. The Cassini mission has recently been approved by NASA to continue through September of 2017. This 7-year extension is called the Solstice mission and it presents challenges to the spacecraft operations team and its ability to maintain the health of the spacecraft. To keep the spacecraft healthy for 7 more years, the spacecraft team must carefully manage hydrazine use (about 48% of the 132 kg launch load remains as of January 2011). A vital part of conserving hydrazine is to use the reaction wheel assembly (RWA) control system for precise pointing and slews wherever possible. In any given week, the Cassini spacecraft is commanded to use RWA control about 99% of the time, with about 1% of the time requiring reaction control system (RCS) thruster control (to perform Delta V course corrections or to bias the RWA momentum). Such extensive use of the RWA hardware throughout the mission requires that the RWAs be operated in a way that minimizes degradation in the RWA electronics, DC motor, and spin bearing for each reaction wheel. Three consumables in particular have been identified for the RWAs: (1) Total number of revolutions for each RWA. (2) Time spent at very low wheel speeds. At these low speeds, good elasto-hydrodynamic (EHD) film lubrication may be compromised. (3) Total number of on/off power cycles. The second of these consumables, minimizing the time spent at very low wheel speeds, is especially important to keep the spin bearing healthy and well-lubricated. These consumables are actively managed by the attitude control operations team throughout the mission. One vital management technique is to predict individual RWA momentum (given the pointing and slews that are needed to collect the best science) and to bias the RWA momentum in a way that reduces both the total number of revolutions as well as the time spent below EHD wheel speed. Another strategy to protect RWA health is to alter the planned pointing of the spacecraft (which can affect science collection) so that the RWA consumables are conserved. This paper focuses on why this second technique is needed, and discusses how guidelines have been developed by the attitude control team which affects the planned science pointing, so that science data can be most optimally collected while still minimizing RWA consumable usage.

interplanetary trajectory↗

Advanced Intensity-Modulation Continuous-Wave Lidar Techniques for ASCENDS O2 Column Measurements

Global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) measurements for the NASA Active Sensing of CO2 Emissions over Nights, Days, and Seasons (ASCENDS) space mission are critical for improving our understanding of global CO2 sources and sinks. Advanced Intensity- Modulated Continuous-Wave (IM-CW) lidar techniques are investigated as a means of facilitating CO2 measurements from space to meet the ASCENDS measurement requirements. In recent numerical, laboratory and flight experiments we have successfully used the Binary Phase Shift Keying (BPSK) modulation technique to uniquely discriminate surface lidar returns from intermediate aerosol and cloud contamination. We demonstrate the utility of BPSK to eliminate sidelobes in the range profile as a means of making Integrated Path Differential Absorption (IPDA) column CO2 measurements in the presence of optically thin clouds, thereby eliminating the need to correct for sidelobe bias errors caused by the clouds. Furthermore, high accuracy and precision ranging to the surface as well as to the top of intermediate cloud layers, which is a requirement for the inversion of column CO2 number density measurements to column CO2 mixing ratios, has been demonstrated using new hyperfine interpolation techniques that takes advantage of the periodicity of the modulation waveforms. This approach works well for both BPSK and linear swept-frequency modulation techniques. The BPSK technique under investigation has excellent auto-correlation properties while possessing a finite bandwidth. A comparison of BPSK and linear swept-frequency is also discussed in this paper. These results are extended to include Richardson-Lucy deconvolution techniques to extend the resolution of the lidar beyond that implied by limit of the bandwidth of the modulation, where it is shown useful for making tree canopy measurements.

Campbell, Joel F.↗

Type II Supernova Energetics and Comparison of Light Curves to Shock-Cooling Models

During the first few days after explosion, Type II supernovae (SNe) are dominated by relatively simple physics. Theoretical predictions regarding early-time SN light curves in the ultraviolet (UV) and optical bands are thus quite robust. We present, for the first time, a sample of 57 R-band SN II light curves that are well-monitored during their rise, with greater than 5 detections during the first 10 days after discovery, and a well-constrained time of explosion to within 13 days. We show that the energy per unit mass (E/M) can be deduced to roughly a factor of five by comparing early-time optical data to the 2011 model of Rabinak Waxman, while the progenitor radius cannot be determined based on R-band data alone. We find that SN II explosion energies span a range of EM = (0.2-20) x 10(exp 51) erg/(10 M stellar mass), and have a mean energy per unit mass of E/ M = 0.85 x 10(exp 51) erg(10 stellar mass), corrected for Malmquist bias. Assuming a small spread in progenitor masses, this indicates a large intrinsic diversity in explosion energy. Moreover, E/M is positively correlated with the amount of Ni-56 produced in the explosion, as predicted by some recent models of core-collapse SNe. We further present several empirical correlations. The peak magnitude is correlated with the decline rate (Delta m(sub15), the decline rate is weakly correlated with the rise time, and the rise time is not significantly correlated with the peak magnitude. Faster declining SNe are more luminous and have longer rise times. This limits the possible power sources for such events.

supernovae: general↗

Evidence of Strong Contributions from Mixed-Phase Clouds to Arctic Climate Change

Underestimation of the proportion of supercooled liquid in mixed‐phase clouds in climate models has called into question its impact on Arctic climate change. We show that correcting for this bias in the CESM model can either enhance or reduce Arctic amplification depending on the microphysical characteristics of the clouds as a corollary to the cloud phase feedback. Replacement of ice with liquid in the cloud phase feedback results in more downward longwave radiation, which is effectively trapped as heat at the surface in the Arctic due to its unique stable stratification conditions, and this ultimately leads to a more positive lapse rate feedback. The larger the ice particles are to begin with, the stronger Arctic amplification becomes due to the lower precipitation efficiency of liquid droplets compared to ice crystals. Our results emphasize the importance of realistic representations of microphysical processes in mixed‐phase clouds, particularly in the Arctic.

Arctic↗

Thirty-Six Combined Years of MODIS Geolocation Trending

Two Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors have been in operations for more than 19 and 17 years (thus 36 combined years) as part of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) on the Terra platform that was launched in December 1999 and on the Aqua platform that was launched in May 2002, respectively. Accurate geolocation is a critical element needed for accurate retrieval of global biogeophysical parameters. In this paper, we describe the latest trends in the continuously improved MODIS geolocation accuracy in Collection-5 (C5), C6 and C6.1 re-processing and forward-processing data streams. We improved geolocation accuracy in the re-processed data and corrected for geolocation biases found in forward-processed data, including those caused by operations such as the stop-go-stop status of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) instrument on the Aqua platform. We discuss scan-toscan underlaps near nadir over the equator regions that was discovered in checking the non-underlapping requirement in the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) based on trending parameters from the actual Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (S-NPP) satellite orbit. The underlaps are closely tied to instrument effective focal length that is measured from on-orbit data using a technique we recently developed. We also discuss potential improvements for the upcoming C7 re-processing.

ground control point↗

BLOOD-BASED MULTI-SCALE MODEL FOR CANCER RISK FROM GCR IN GENETICALLY DIVERSE POPULATIONS

OBJECTIVES AND METHODS This project addresses the challenge of understanding and predicting individual radiation sensitivity by integrating genetics, demographics and biomarker characteristics across species (mice and humans). We hypothesize that ex vivo DNA repair response to GCR components is a central determinant of cancer risk from space radiation and can serve as a biomarker of radiation risk in combination with genetics. Automated image quantification of 53BP1+ radiation-induced foci (RIF) during the first 4-48 h post-irradiation was performed as a function of dose and LET in non-immortalized primary skin fibroblasts derived from 76 mice across 15 strains (5 inbred reference strains and 10 collaborative-cross strains) exposed to X rays (0.1, 1 and 4 Gy), 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 600 MeV/n 56Fe (1.1 and 3 particles/100μm2), as well as in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from 768 healthy donors (matched ethnicity, 50/50 male/female, 18-70 years old) exposed to gamma rays (0.1 and 1 Gy), 350 MeV/n 28Si, 350 MeV/n 40Ar and 600 MeV/n 56Fe (1.1 and 3 particles/100μm2). QUANTIFICATION OF 53BP1+ FOCI IN VITRO AND ASSOCIATIONS TO IN VIVO RADIATION SUSCEPTIBILITY IN 15 MOUSE STRAINS We reported in vitro repair kinetic and repairable fractions of RIF for the 15 mouse strains and introduced a mathematical model for RIF as a function of time, dose and LET. We noted that the metabolic activity of cells modulates the RIF response, and we introduced the open access tool terRIFic (Tool for Enhanced Results of RIF In Cells, https://radbiolab.shinyapps.io/terrific/) to correct for such bias using confluence level. Notably, at 4h post-irradiation, RIF/Gy decreased with dose or LET: as the dose or LET increases, so does the proximity of DNA double-strand-breaks (DSB) and our data suggest that proximal DSBs are brought together inside isolated RIF for repair. The RIF/Gy trend was inverted at 24h, suggesting RIF with high DSB content are more difficult to repair. We showed that in vitro metrics correlate with in vivo measurements in the same 15 mouse strains, such as survival levels of immune cells or spontaneous cancer incidence, suggesting a relationship between the efficiency of DSB repair and cancer risk or radiation toxicity. In addition to the efficiency of repair and persistent RIF, the amount of spontaneous foci before irradiation was also found to be strain dependent. Finally, we performed genome-wide association study in the same 15 mouse strains using all RIF phenotypes measured in vitro, identifying genes of interest and validating RIF as an ideal biomarker for individual radiation sensitivity. BASELINE 53BP1+ FOCI PREDICTS INDIVIDUAL HUMAN RESPONSE TO GCR COMPONENTS Based on the analysis of radiation responses of 576 donor PBMCs (using quantification of 53BP1+ foci, oxidative stress and cell death), we observed a wide variability of subject- and LET-dependent radiation responses, with radiation-induced DNA repair foci increasing with LET, though oxidative stress being notably reduced by high-LET irradiation, potentially due to a switch between hydrogen peroxide and oxygen radical-based mechanisms. We identified a relationship between few spontaneous DNA foci at baseline and increased DNA repair after irradiation, accompanied by an alteration in immunoregulatory cytokine secretion, which might be adapted as biomarkers to predict ionizing radiation sensitivity. Among demographic variables, only latent cytomegalovirus infection and age were predictive of high baseline foci formation. Finally, we have performed low-throughput whole genome sequencing of all samples and are currently in the process of identifying the genes and pathways associated with low and high-LET ionizing radiation sensitivity in humans.

53BP1↗

Fractional Polarization of Extragalactic Sources in the 500 deg 2 SPTpol Survey

We study the polarization properties of extragalactic sources at 95 and 150 GHz in the SPTpol 500 deg 2 survey. We estimate the polarized power by stacking maps at known source positions, and correct for noise bias by subtracting the mean polarized power at random positions in the maps. We show that the method is unbiased using a set of simulated maps with similar noise properties to the real SPTpol maps. We find a flux-weighted mean-squared polarization fraction 〈p 2 〉 = [8.9 ± 1.1] × 10 -4 at 95 GHz and [6.9 ± 1.1] × 10 -4 at 150 GHz for the full sample. This is consistent with the values obtained for a subsample of active galactic nuclei. For dusty sources, we find 95 per cent upper limits of 〈p 2 〉95 < 16.9 × 10 -3 and 〈p 2 〉150 < 2.6 × 10 -3 . We find no evidence that the polarization fraction depends on the source flux or observing frequency. The 1σ upper limit on measured mean-squared polarization fraction at 150 GHz implies that extragalactic foregrounds will be subdominant to the CMB E and B mode polarization power spectra out to at least ℓ ≲ 5700 (ℓ ≲ 4700) and ℓ ≲ 5300 (ℓ ≲ 3600), respectively, at 95 (150) GHz.

Nikhel Gupta↗

Global Dust Cycle and Direct Radiative Effect in E3SM Version 1: Impact of Increasing Model Resolution

Quantification of dust aerosols in Earth System Models (ESMs) has important implications for water cycle and biogeochemistry studies. This study examines the global life cycle and direct radiative effects (DREs) of dust in the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SMv1), and the impact of increasing model resolution both horizontally and vertically. The default 1° E3SMv1 captures the spatial and temporal variability in the observed dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) reasonably well, but overpredicts dust absorption in the shortwave (SW). Simulations underestimate the dust vertical and long-range transport, compared with the satellite dust extinction profiles. After updating dust refractive indices and correcting for a bias in partitioning size-segregated emissions, both SW cooling and longwave (LW) warming of dust simulated by E3SMv1 are increased and agree better with other recent studies. The estimated net dust DRE of −0.42 Wm−2 represents a stronger cooling effect than the observationally based estimate −0.2 Wm−2 (−0.48 to +0.2), due to a smaller LW warming. Constrained by a global mean DAOD, model sensitivity studies of increasing horizontal and vertical resolution show strong influences on the simulated global dust burden and lifetime primarily through the change of dust dry deposition rate; there are also remarkable differences in simulated spatial distributions of DAOD, DRE, and deposition fluxes. Thus, constraining the global DAOD is insufficient for accurate representation of dust climate effects, especially in transitioning to higher- or variable-resolution ESMs. Better observational constraints of dust vertical profiles, dry deposition, size, and LW properties are needed.

dust aerosol↗

Deriving New Mixing Ratios for Venus Atmospheric Gases Using Data From the Pioneer Venus Large Probe Neutral Mass Spectrometer

We present the first published method to convert data obtained by the Pioneer Venus Large Probe Neutral Mass Spectrometer (LNMS) into units of mixing ratio (ppm) and volume percent (v%) against CO 2 and N 2 , the dominant Venus atmospheric gases, including conversion to density (kg m −3 ). These unit conversions are key to unlocking the untapped potential of the data, which represents a significant challenge given the scant calibration data in the literature. Herein, we show that our data treatments and conversions yield mixing ratios and volume percent values for H 2 O, N 2 , and SO 2 that are within error to those reported for the gas chromatograph (LGC) on the Pioneer Venus Large Probe (PVLP). For the noble gases, we developed strategies to correct for instrument biases by treating the data as a relative scale and using PVLP and Venera-based measurements as calibration points. Together, these methods, conversions, calibrations, and comparisons afford novel unit conversions for the LNMS data and yield unified measures for Venus’ atmosphere from the LNMS and LGC on the PVLP. - Conversion into mixing ratio (ppm), volume percent (v%), and density (kg m −3 ). - Mixing ratios are expressed against CO 2 and N 2 . - LNMS and LGC measurements on the PVLP are consistent.

Venus↗

Application of the Shuttle Laser Altimeter in an Accuracy Assessment of Global 1-Kilometer Digital Elevation Data

Shuttle Laser Altimeter (SLA) data have been used to evaluate the accuracy of GTOPO30, the first comprehensive, 1 km resolution, global topographic data set. GTOPO30 was developed by the USGS Eros Data Center (EDC), in part, to address NASA's needs for a global topographic model in support of remote sensing instruments aboard the Earth Observing System AM-1 spacecraft. SLA flew as a part of the STS-72 mission in January, 1996 observing the latitude band from +/- 28.5 deg, and on STS-85 in August, 1997 extending the observations to +/- 57 deg. Combining the SLA ranging data with shuttle position and pointing knowledge yields surface elevation data of very high vertical accuracy in an Earth-centered, absolute reference frame (2.8 m rms difference for SLA-01 with respect to ocean reference surface). Use of the well-determined mean sea surface reference for calibration allows propagation of high accuracy altimetry onto the continents. 436,635 SLA-01 land elevations were compared to the GTOPO30 grid after conversion to a mean sea level vertical datum using the Earth Geoid Model 96, jointly developed by Goddard and NIMA. The comparison reveals systematic elevation biases in southern Asia, Africa, Australia, and south America on the order 10's to 100 meters in the GTOPO30 compilation on spatial scales of 100's to 1000's of kilometers. These biases are likely due to vertical datum errors in the topographic source materials used to compile GTOPO30, which primarily consist of Defense Mapping Agency (DMA) digital elevation and topographic map products. These biases imply that elevation corrections applied to land gravity measurements using these DMA source materials will be biased, leading to errors in geoid models incorporating these land gravity data.

Harding, David J.↗

Seasonal variability in global sea level observed with Geosat altimetry

Time changes in global mesoscale sea level variances were observed with satellite altimetry between November 1986 and March 1988, showing significant, geographically coherent seasonal patterns. The NE Pacific and NE Atlantic variances show the most reliable patterns, higher than their yearly averages in both the fall and winter. The response to wind forcing appears as the major contributor to the NE Pacific and Atlantic signals; errors in the estimated inverse barometer response due to errors in atmospheric pressure, residual orbit errors, and errors in sea state bias are evaluated and found to be negligible contributors to this particular signal. The equatorial regions also show significant seasonal patterns, but the uncertainties in the wet tropospheric correction prevent definitive conclusions. The western boundary current changes are very large but not statistically significant. Estimates of the regression coefficient between sea level and significant wave height, an estimate of the sea state bias correction, range between 2.3 and 2.9 percent and vary with the type of orbit correction applied.

Zlotnicki, V.↗

Meteorological Sensor Calibration Facility

The meteorological sensor calibration facility is designed to test and assess radiosonde measurement quality through actual flights in the atmosphere. United States radiosonde temperature measurements are deficient in that they require correction for errors introduced by long- and short-wave radiation. The effect of not applying corrections results in a large bias between day time and night time measurements. This day/night bias has serious implications for users of radiosonde data, of which NASA is one. The derivation of corrections for the U.S. radiosonde is quite important. Determination of corrections depends on solving the heat transfer equation of the thermistor using laboratory measurements of the emissivity and absorptivity of the thermistor coating. The U.S. radiosonde observations from the World Meteorological Organization International Radiosonde Intercomparison were used as the data base to test whether the day/night height bias can be removed. Twenty-five noon time and 26 night time observations were used. Corrected temperatures were used to calculate new geopotentials. Day/night bias in the geopotentials decreased significantly when corrections were introduced. Some testing of thermal lag attendant with the standard carbon hygristor took place. Two radiosondes with small bead thermistors imbedded in the hygristor were flown. Detailed analysis was not accomplished; however, cursory examination of the data showed that the hygristor is at a higher temperature than the external thermistor indicates.

Schmidlin, F. J.↗

The Influence of Radiosonde 'Age' on TRMM Field Campaign Soundings Humidity Correction

Hundreds of Vaisala sondes with a RS80-H Humicap thin-film capacitor humidity sensor were launched during the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) field campaigns in Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere held in Brazil (LBA) and in Kwajalein experiment (KWAJEX) held in the Republic of Marshall Islands. Using Six humidity error correction algorithms by Wang et al., these sondes were corrected for significant dry bias in the RS80-H data. It is further shown that sonde surface temperature error must be corrected for a better representation of the relative humidity. This error becomes prominent due to sensor arm-heating in the first 50-s data.

Roy, Biswadev↗

Projections of Declining Surface-Water Availability for the Southwestern United States

16 of the CMIP5 models had all the data needed for this work for at least one simulation that was continuous from 1950 to 2040. Details of the models analyzed here are provided in Table S1. The model data analyzed here are available at http://strega.ldeo.columbia.edu:81/expert/home/.naomi/.AR5/.v2/.historical:rcp85/.mmm16/ a. Assessing the climatology of the models Despite increases in horizontal resolution of many models compared to their CMIP3 counterparts none of these models can adequately resolve the topography of the south west United States, such as the Sierra Nevada and Rocky Mountains and the associated orographic precipitation. This requires that caution be used when interpreting the results presented here. To assess the ability of the models to simulate the current hydroclimate, in Figure S1 we show the observed (from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre gridded rain gauge data, (1)) monthly climatology of precipitation and the same for all the models and the multimodel mean for the California-Nevada, Colorado headwaters and Texas regions. The GPCC data uses rain gauges only and interpolates to regular grids of which we used the 1◦ by 1◦ one. Details of the data set can be found in (2). While the models apparently overestimate precipitation in California and Nevada the seasonal cycle with wet winters and dry summers is very well represented. It is also possible that the rain gauge observations are biased low by inadequately sampling the higher mountain regions. How ever the models might also be expected to underestimate orographic precipitation due to inadequate horizontal resolution. The 25 models are also too wet in the Colorado headwaters region but correctly represent the quite even distribution though the year. The bimodal distribution of precipitation in Texas, with peaks in May and September, and the absolute amounts, are well modeled but with the September peak too weak. The positive precipitation bias translates into a positive runoff bias for the Colorado headwaters as also shown in Figure S1. Here the observed runoff values are taken from simulations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface-hydrology model (3) forced by observed meteorology (5) that were conducted as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System project phase 2 ( (NLDAS-2), http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/. Runoff for California-Nevada is better simulated but there is a positive bias over Texas despite no strong precipitation bias. To check whether regional climate models better simulate P and runoff in these regions we analyzed the historical simulation with the Regional Climate Model version 3 driven by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 available from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (http://www.narccap.ucar.edu). This model configuration retained these biases in P and runoff although they were reduced in amplitude. Given these varying biases we plot P and P − E changes in actual values but apply the simplest bias correction possible to the runoff and soil moisture values and show the modeled changes in terms of percentages of the 20th Century model climatologies. A thorough assessment of the simulation of North American climate in CMIP5 models is conducted in Sheffield at al. (North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part I: Evaluation of 20th Century Continental and Regional Climatology, manuscript submit ted to J. Climate, available at http://www.climate.noaa.gov/index.jsp?pg=./cpo pa/ mapp/cmip5 publications.html). Sheffield et al. analyze the climatology of precipitation, surface air temperature, low level winds, moisture fluxes, runoff etc. and conclude that the main features of the hydrological cycle, including characteristics of the atmospheric moisture balance and its seasonality, are captured in the CMP5 models subject to biases in total precipitation amounts. We chose to use all available models instead of selecting some and rejecting others based on an assessment of model realism. This is in accord with the suggestions of Mote et al. for CMIP3 (4) but future work needs to revisit this matter for the case of the CMIP5 ensemble.

Seager, Richard↗