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At least 271 records · Page 15

Gaussian Process Regression for Aggregate Baseline Load Forecasting

Demand response (DR) is one of the most effective ways to maintain the reliability and improve the flexibility of power systems. Accurate forecasts of baseline loads are essential for DR programs. In the era of big data, machine learning-based approaches present a unique opportunity for baseline load forecasting. Thus, this paper presents a machine learning-based approach using a relatively less explored algorithm, Gaussian process regression (GPR), to forecast aggregate baseline loads. As such, a dataset was generated using a set of EnergyPlus simulations. Using the generated dataset, a GPR-based forecasting model was developed. In addition, support vector regression (SVR)-, artificial neural network (ANN)-, and averaging-based models were developed as baseline models for comparison. These models were compared in terms of accuracy, simplicity, and integrity. The prediction performance of the models showed that the GPR-based model is more accurate and reliable than the others. Such high performance shows the potential of the GPR in baseline load forecasting. GPR, therefore, can be used for DR applications.

Amasyali, Kadir↗

OVERVIEW OF RECENT PU-238 PRODUCTION ACTIVITIES AT IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY

The Plutonium Fuel Services (PFS) program at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is active in the qualification of irradiation targets containing Np-237 for irradiation in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) to produce Pu-238 for future NASA missions. INL qualified and loaded 7 targets in ATR’s South Flux Trap (SFT) for cycle 169A, which occurred in Spring 2021. This program was reinitiated after two baseline production targets in three positions validated significant production of Pu-238 [ref.1]. The validation model was followed by the PFS-1 experimental test in the ATRC (Critical) facility [ref.2]. This paper outlines the progress and status of the PFS program. The qualification effort, safety analysis, hardware status, and future activities for qualification of an updated target design for use in the ATR will be discussed.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Novel Earned Value Management System Maturity Framework and Its Relation to Project Performance

Earned value management systems (EVMS) are used by industry practitioners to successfully manage projects and programs; however, there has been no past study to characterize and evaluate the impact of EVMS maturity on project performance. This paper introduces a novel framework, developed to measure the EVMS maturity, composed of 56 attributes arrayed across ten subprocesses, which together make up an integrated project/program management system. This paper describes how the framework was conceived and developed, based on literature review and data collected from industry workshops. Then, it examines the relationship between EVMS maturity and ten project performance metrics through statistical analyses. The study analyzed project data from 35 projects and programs worth over $21.8 billion in total cost. For this sample, results showed statistically significant differences between projects with high and low EVMS maturity; on average, projects exhibiting high EVMS maturity have 54% less cost overruns and 19% less change orders versus their performance measurement baseline. Higher maturity projects and programs also achieve better customer satisfaction, meet business objectives more often, and are more often in compliance with EVMS standards and guidelines. This paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing a practical and novel framework for assessing the maturity of earned value management systems. Practitioners can use the framework to improve their integrated project and program management.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

AGR-1 Compact 5-3-1 Post-Irradiation Examination Results

The Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program was established to perform the requisite research and development on tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel to support deployment of a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). The work continues as part of the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) TRISO Fuel program. The overarching program goal is to provide a baseline fuel qualification data set to support licensing and operation of an HTGR. To achieve these goals, the program includes the elements of fuel fabrication, irradiation, post-irradiation examination (PIE) and safety testing, fuel performance, and fission product transport (INL 2015). A series of fuel irradiation experiments is being planned and conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). These experiments will provide data on fuel performance under irradiation, support fuel process development, qualify the fuel for normal operating conditions, provide irradiated fuel for safety testing, and support the development of fuel performance and fission product transport models. The first of these irradiation tests, designated AGR-1, began in the ATR in December 2006 and ended in November 2009. This experiment was conducted primarily to act as a shakedown test of the multicapsule test train design and provide early data on fuel performance for use in fuel fabrication process development. It also provided samples for post-irradiation safety testing, where fission product retention of the fuel at high temperatures will be experimentally measured. The capsule design and details of the AGR-1 experiment have been presented previously.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

AGR-1 Compact 1-3-1 Post-Irradiation Examination Results

The Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program was established to perform the requisite research and development on tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel to support deployment of a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). The work continues as part of the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) TRISO Fuel program. The overarching program goal is to provide a baseline fuel qualification data set to support licensing and operation of an HTGR. To achieve these goals, the program includes the elements of fuel fabrication, irradiation, post-irradiation examination (PIE) and safety testing, fuel performance modeling, and fission product transport (INL 2015). A series of fuel irradiation experiments is being planned and conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). These experiments will provide data on fuel performance under irradiation, support fuel process development, qualify the fuel for normal operating conditions, provide irradiated fuel for safety testing, and support the development of fuel performance and fission product transport models. The first of these irradiation tests, designated AGR-1, began in the ATR in December 2006 and ended in November 2009. This experiment was conducted primarily to act as a shakedown test of the multicapsule test train design and provide early data on fuel performance for use in fuel fabrication process development. It also provided samples for post-irradiation safety testing, where fission product retention of the fuel at high temperatures will be experimentally measured. The capsule design and details of the AGR-1 experiment have been presented previously (Grover, Petti, and Maki 2010, Maki 2009).

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

AGR-5/6/7 Irradiation Disassembly and Metrology First Look

The Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program was established to perform research and development on tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel to support deployment of high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs), which are graphite-moderated nuclear reactors cooled with helium. This work continues as part of the Advanced Reactor Technologies (ART) TRISO Fuel Program. The overarching program goal is to provide a baseline fuel qualification data set to support licensing, deployment, and operation of HTGRs in the United States. To achieve these goals, the program includes fuel fabrication, irradiations of TRISO fuels and high-temperature materials (e.g., graphite), safety testing and post-irradiation examination (PIE), fuel performance modeling, and fission product transport and source term determination. The ART AGR program has conducted four distinct fuel irradiation experiments in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The first of these irradiation tests, designated AGR-1, began in ATR in December of 2006 and ended in November 2009. This experiment was primarily to act as a shakedown test of the multi-capsule test train design and to provide early data on fuel performance that would be used in fuel fabrication process development. AGR-1 fuel kernels were produced on an engineering scale, but the TRISO coatings and cylindrical fuel compacts were fabricated on a laboratory scale. The AGR-1 PIE was completed and the final report was published in 2015. The second irradiation test, AGR-2, started in ATR in June 2010 and ended in October 2013. The AGR-2 irradiation test was designed to provide fuel performance data for coated particles fabricated on an engineering-scale pilot line using a coater with an internal chamber diameter of 150 mm (6 in.). The final PIE report was published in 2021. AGR-3/4, a single irradiation that combined what were originally conceived as the third and fourth tests, was to support the refinement of fission product transport models and to assess the effects of sweep gas impurities on fuel performance and fission product transport. PIE of the AGR-3/4 experiment is still in progress as of this writing. The subject of this report is AGR-5/6/7, the final qualification test of AGR TRISO fuel made entirely at the engineering scale.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Evolution of Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning at MESA

Early on in 2018 Sandia recognized the Microsystems Engineering, Science and Applications (MESA) Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning capability to be unpredictable, inconsistent, reactive, and unable to provide strong linkage to the sponsor's needs. The impetus for this report is to share learnings from MESA's journey towards maturing this capability. This report describes re-building the foundational elements of MESA's Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning capability using a risk-based, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) approach. To begin, MESA's decades-old Piano Chart + Ad Hoc Hybrid Methodology is described with a narrative of its strengths and weaknesses. Then its replacement, the MCDA /Analytical Hierarchy Process, is introduced with a discussion of its strengths and weaknesses. To generate a realistic Programmatic Asset Lifecycle Planning budget outlook, MESA used its rolling 20-year Extended Life Program Plan (MELPP) as a baseline. The new MCDA risk-based prioritization methodology implements DOE/NNSA guidelines for prioritization of DOE activities and provides a reliable, structured framework for combining expert judgement and stakeholder preferences according to an established scientific technique. An in-house Hybrid Decision Support System (HDSS) software application was developed to facilitate production of several key deliverables. The application enables analysis of the prioritization decisions with charts to display and provide linkage of MESA's funding requests to the stakeholders' priorities, strategic objectives, nuclear deterrence programs, MESA priorities, and much more.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integral Experiment Final Design for Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) using Highly Enriched Uranium with Polyethylene at Low Temperature (IER-479 CED-2 Report)

The goal of IER-479 is to design uranium critical experiments that can be used to validate low temperature cross sections and criticality safety analyses over multiple neutron energy regimes. Currently, there are no benchmarks in the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project (ICSBEP) handbook at temperatures lower than room temperature (International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook, 2019). However, there are many needs for validation of criticality safety analysis at lower temperatures, including meeting transportation requirements and operations conducted outside or in unheated facilities. Additionally, NCSP has funded North Carolina State (NCSU) to generate new thermal scattering laws, including at lower temperatures, and the lack of integral benchmarks impedes data testing of these new cross sections. To address these needs, this report will present a critical experiment design covering various fission energy regimes with a goal temperature of -40°C (-40°F), which is based on the lower bound of expected non-cryogenic operational temperatures. The goal of the U.S. Nuclear Criticality Safety Program’s (NCSP) Thermal/Epithermal eXperiments (TEX) is to design and conduct new critical experiments to address high priority nuclear data needs from the nuclear criticality safety and nuclear data communities. The TEX program includes two series of baseline experimental configurations, one based on plutonium fuel (plutonium-aluminum Zero Power Physics Reactor (ZPPR) plates) and the other based on uranium fuel (highly enriched uranium (HEU) plates), that are moderated with varying thickness of polyethylene to create assemblies which span the thermal, intermediate, and fast fission energy regimes. The configurations are designed to be easily modified (for example, to add diluent materials of interest) to allow for efficient generation of additional benchmark configurations and allow for added nuclear data testing utility when comparing modified configurations to baseline configurations. The goal of IER-479 is to use the TEX-HEU concept (stack of HEU plates and polyethylene moderators) to design a critical experiment that can be used to validate low temperature cross sections and criticality safety analyses.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Building Energy Baseline Analysis Package

The package includes several programs that perform calculations involving time-series energy data (also known as "interval load data", including "smart meter" and "green button" data). The software is written in Python and R and requires both of those languages. It also requires Python packages (??), and the RT "optparse" library.

Price, Phillip↗

A preliminary investigation of water usage behavior in single-family homes

As regional drought conditions continue deteriorating around the world, residential water use has been brought into the built environment spotlight. Nevertheless, the understanding of water use behavior in residential buildings is still limited. In this paper, we present data analytics and results from monitoring data of daily water use (DWU) in 50 single-family homes in Texas, USA. The results show the typical frequency distribution curve of the DWU per household and indicate personal income, education level and energy use of appliances all have statistically significant effects on the DWU per capita. Analysis of the water-intensive use demonstrates the residents tend to use more water in post-vacation days. In conclusion, these results help generate awareness of water use behavior in homes. Ultimately, this research could support policy makers to establish a water use baseline and inform water conservation programs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

SU-E-I-20: Comprehensive Quality Assurance Test of Second Generation Toshiba Aquilion Large Bore CT Simulator Based On AAPM TG-66 Recommendations

Purpose: AAPM radiation therapy committee task group No. 66 (TG-66) published a report which described a general approach to CT simulator QA. The report outlines the testing procedures and specifications for the evaluation of patient dose, radiation safety, electromechanical components, and image quality for a CT simulator. The purpose of this study is to thoroughly evaluate the performance of a second generation Toshiba Aquilion Large Bore CT simulator with 90 cm bore size (Toshiba, Nasu, JP) based on the TG-66 criteria. The testing procedures and results from this study provide baselines for a routine QA program. Methods: Different measurements and analysis were performed including CTDIvol measurements, alignment and orientation of gantry lasers, orientation of the tabletop with respect to the imaging plane, table movement and indexing accuracy, Scanogram location accuracy, high contrast spatial resolution, low contrast resolution, field uniformity, CT number accuracy, mA linearity and mA reproducibility using a number of different phantoms and measuring devices, such as CTDI phantom, ACR image quality phantom, TG-66 laser QA phantom, pencil ion chamber (Fluke Victoreen) and electrometer (RTI Solidose 400). Results: The CTDI measurements were within 20% of the console displayed values. The alignment and orientation for both gantry laser and tabletop, as well as the table movement and indexing and scanogram location accuracy were within 2mm as specified in TG66. The spatial resolution, low contrast resolution, field uniformity and CT number accuracy were all within ACR’s recommended limits. The mA linearity and reproducibility were both well below the TG66 threshold. Conclusion: The 90 cm bore size second generation Toshiba Aquilion Large Bore CT simulator that comes with 70 cm true FOV can consistently meet various clinical needs. The results demonstrated that this simulator complies with the TG-66 protocol in all aspects including electromechanical component, radiation safety component, and image quality component. Employee of Toshiba America Medical Systems.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Development of a Pre-Combustion CO 2 Capture Process Using High-Temperature PBI Hollow-Fiber Membranes

The overall objective of this project was to evaluate the advantages of transformational polybenzimidazole (PBI) polymer hollow-fiber membrane (HFM)-based, carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) capture and purification technology at bench-scale using an actual coal-derived syngas stream from a coal gasification facility. The project was carried out over two budget periods. The technical objectives in Budget Period 1 (BP1) included preparing HFs and modules and upgrading the available skid for field testing. The technical objectives for BP2 were to field-test the skid unit with actual coal-derived syngas from an oxygen-blown gasifier to obtain performance data, update the Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) that would assist with future process scale-up, and provide information on the design of a small pilot-scale test unit. The goal was to advance the PBI-HFM CO 2 capture and gas separation system for pre-combustion applications beyond second-generation economic performance predictions and make progress toward meeting overall fossil energy performance goals of CO 2 capture with 95% CO 2 purity at a cost of electricity (COE) 30% less than baseline capture approaches. The research program was designed with progressive technical tasks leading to both dynamic and steady-state testing of the PBI-HFM skid with actual coal-derived syngas. The work plan was to: (1) fabricate sufficient Generation-2 (GEN-2) fibers for module fabrication; (2) upgrade the fiber skid to accommodate large fiber modules for bench-scale field testing; (3) conduct dynamic and steady-state testing with coal-derived syngas from an oxygen-blown gasifier and obtain system performance data; (4) perform a TEA and environmental, health, and safety (EH&S) assessment; (5) update the State-Point Data Table, Technology Gap Analysis (TGA), and Technology Maturation Plan (TMP); (6) uninstall and return the test skid to the Recipient’s facilities; and (7) submit a Final Report that describes the results and analysis of the project research effort.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

The NO$v$A Test Beam Program

NO$\nu$A is a long-baseline off-axis beam neutrino experiment. By measuring $\nu_\mu$ disappearance and $\nu_e$ appearance at the 14 kiloton NO$\nu$A Far Detector, the experiment is addressing outstanding questions in neutrino physics, including the neutrino mass hierarchy and existence of leptonic CP violation. The NO$\nu$A Test Beam program, under deployment at the Fermilab Test Beam Facility, will use a scaled-down NO$\nu$A detector to sample beams of tagged electrons, muons, pions, and protons in the momentum range of 0.3 to 2 GeV/c. It will further the NO$\nu$A physics reach by precisely measuring the detector's muon energy scale and electromagnetic and hadronic response, and provide real data for detailed studies of particle identification techniques. Ongoing efforts on beam-line instrumentation, data acquisition, simulation, momentum reconstruction and particle identification are presented. Implications for the neutrino oscillation measurements are discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Calcium Phosphate Constraints in HLW Glasses: Phosphate Liquidus Model

About 50 million gallons of high-level mixed waste is currently stored in underground tanks at the United States Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Hanford site in the State of Washington. The Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) will provide DOE’s Office of River Protection (ORP) with a means of treating this waste by vitrification for subsequent disposal. The tank waste will be separated into low- and high-activity waste fractions, which will then be vitrified respectively into Immobilized Low Activity Waste (ILAW) and Immobilized High Level Waste (IHLW) products. The ILAW product will be disposed in an engineered facility on the Hanford site while the IHLW product is designed for acceptance into a national geological disposal facility for high-level nuclear waste. The ILAW and IHLW products must meet a variety of requirements before they can be accepted for disposal. Glass property-composition models will be used to control the vitrification process at the WTP to ensure that the glass meets product quality and processability requirements. The quality and the validity ranges of the property-composition models and the supporting database will greatly influence waste treatment operations, including the waste loading that is achievable in the glass for each waste composition. The current baseline models for operation of the WTP were developed under the Bechtel National, Inc. (BNI) WTP contract. These models were based on LAW and HLW glass property data over a range of compositions that was guided primarily by the WTP contract and the set of tanks specified therein. The HLW testing was directed towards waste streams from the then-planned early feed tanks for the WTP (i.e., AZ-101, AZ-102, C-106/AY-102, and C-104/AY-101). These wastes are high in iron (AZ-101, AZ-102, and C-106/AY-102) or thorium (C-104/AY-101). While the baseline models may be adequate for commissioning of the facility and processing of the specified tanks, refinements and extensions or augmentations of these models will be required to process the balance of the tank waste inventory. The overall mission of the WTP will require the immobilization of tank waste compositions that are variously dominated by mixtures of aluminum, chromium, bismuth, iron, phosphorous, zirconium, and sulfur compounds as waste-loading-limiting components. Further, the WTP contract includes minimum waste loading requirements that are generally rather modest while loadings significantly higher than those in the current baseline are likely achievable. In order to achieve these higher waste loadings and to expand the applicable composition regions, new models will be needed to support the optimized operation of the WTP. Since the development of the baseline WTP models, ORP directed a program of work at the Vitreous State Laboratory (VSL) to examine various approaches for optimization of the performance of the WTP, including increasing the waste loadings in the LAW and HLW glass products. That work involved HLW rich in Al, Al+Na, Cr, Bi, S, Zr, Sr, P and Fe, in contrast to old baseline models that were based mostly on HLW tanks that were high in Fe, with one other that was also high in Th. Glass property data collected under the ORP program were compiled and combined with data collected to develop the WTP models. The combined databases have been used to update pre-existing HLW composition models or to develop new models for properties such as Product Consistency Test (PCT) responses, spinel crystallization (one-percent crystal fraction temperature, T 1% ), melt viscosity, melt electrical conductivity, nepheline formation upon slow cooling (i.e., Canister Centerline Cooling [CCC]), and Toxicity Characteristic Leach Procedure (TCLP) Cd response. While spinel is typically the most commonly occurring phase in HLW glasses, other phases can be limiting depending on the waste and glass composition. For example, various phosphate phases can become important as the phosphorus content increases. Lithium phosphate crystallization can impact PCT releases of HLW glasses, while calcium phosphate phases forming in the cold-cap can deleteriously impact feed processing in the melter. At present, however, no models exist that relate glass composition and crystallization of phosphate phases in general and calcium phosphate in particular. The present work was therefore directed towards the initial development of such models. Future work may be directed at studying amorphous phase separation in high phosphate HLW glasses. Within the River Protection Project, feed compositions are projected using the Hanford Tank Waste Operations Simulator (HTWOS), a dynamic computer model that tracks the waste through storage, retrieval, feed staging, and treatment processes. A review of the HTWOS data shows that WTP will process 4106 batches of HLW glass for the overall mission (System Plan Rev. 6, ORP-11242), each with its own waste feed and glass composition. Some of the projected HTWOS feed batches are expected to have relatively high concentrations of phosphorous compared to typical HLW streams. In the 4106 batches of HLW for the overall WTP mission P 2 O 5 varies from 0.59 wt% to 13.00 wt%, with 95 batches containing at least 10 wt% P 2 O 5 . Occurrences of phosphate crystals have commonly been noted in glasses with high bismuth and phosphorus contents. In addition, recently collected data from a set of statistically designed HLW matrix glasses prepared and characterized to support enhancement of the HLW glass property-composition models identified apatite in a number of glass samples. However, the current HLW model for crystallization (one-percent crystal fraction temperature) is applicable only to spinel crystallization in glasses. Previous projections of waste loadings and glass volume (such as those in System Plan Rev. 6, ORP-11242) have used preliminary constraints for calcium phosphate crystallization that are based on the limited available data. Additional data and improved constraints or, preferably, models that relate glass composition to crystallization of phosphate-containing phases, are therefore needed to support HLW vitrification at the WTP. The present study focuses on the development of such a model based on data from previously characterized glasses and a set of newly fabricated glasses.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The NOvA Test Beam Program

NOvA is a two-detector long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment which aims to make a determination of the neutrino mass hierarchy, the octant of ${\theta}_{23}$, and measure possible CP violation. The NOvA Test Beam program consists of a scaled-down NOvA detector placed in a beamline capable of delivering 0.3 - 2.0 GeV/c protons, electrons, pions, and kaons. The beamline detectors provide us with particle identification and momentum measurements so we can study our detector technology with known inputs. Studying these particles will provide us a more detailed understanding of our calibration, detector response, and energy scale, which are some of the largest sources of systematic uncertainty in NOvA analyses. We will also collect a selection of single-particle data events for training particle identification algorithms. I will present the current status of the NOvA Test Beam program and discuss plans for data taking and analysis.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

The SNL100-03 Blade: Design Studies with Flatback Airfoils for the Sandia 100-meter Blade.

A series of design studies were performed to inv estigate the effects of flatback airfoils on blade performance and weight for large blades using the Sandi a 100-meter blade designs as a starting point. As part of the study, the effects of varying the blade slenderness on blade structural performance was investigated. The advantages and disadvantages of blad e slenderness with respect to tip deflection, flap- wise & edge-wise fatigue resistance, panel buckling capacity, flutter speed, manufacturing labor content, blade total weight, and aerodynamic design load magn itude are quantified. Following these design studies, a final blade design (SNL100-03) was prod uced, which was based on a highly slender design using flatback airfoils. The SNL100-03 design with flatback airfoils has weight of 49 tons, which is about 16% decrease from its SNL100-02 predecessor that used conventional sharp trailing edge airfoils. Although not systematically optimized, the SNL100 -03 design study provides an assessment of and insight into the benefits of flatback airfoils for la rge blades as well as insights into the limits or negative consequences of high blade slenderness resulting from a highly slender SNL100-03 planform as was chosen in the final design definition. This docum ent also provides a description of the final SNL100-03 design definition and is intended to be a companion document to the distribution of the NuMAD blade model files for SNL100-03, which are made publicly available. A summary of the major findings of the Sandia 100-meter blade development program, from the initial SNL100-00 baseline blade through the fourth SNL100-03 blade study, is provided. This summary includes the major findings and outcomes of blade d esign studies, pathways to mitigate the identified large blade design drivers, and tool development that were produced over the course of this five-year research program. A summary of large blade tec hnology needs and research opportunities is also presented.

Griffith, Daniel↗