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At least 271 records · Page 15

Uncertainty Analysis Framework for the Hospital Resource Supply Model for Covid-19

In March and April of 2020 there was widespread concern about availability of medical resources required to treat Covid-19 patients who become seriously ill. A simulation model of supply management was developed to aid understanding of how to best manage available supplies and channel new production. Forecasted demands for critical therapeutic resources have tremendous uncertainty, largely due to uncertainties about the number and timing of patient arrivals. It is therefore essential to evaluate any process for managing supplies in view of this uncertainty. To support such evaluations, we developed a modeling framework that would allow an integrated assessment in the context of uncertainty quantification. At the time of writing there has been no need to execute this framework because adaptations of the medical system have been able to respond effectively to the outbreak. This report documents the framework and its implemented components should need later arise for its application.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Towards real-time forecasting of natural gas production by harnessing graph theory for stochastic discrete fracture networks

In this work, we compare hydrocarbon production curves obtained from a graph-based reduced-order model with the high-fidelity Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) predictions for a fracture network created using data from a real shale site. We observe that the bounds for the high fidelity DFN model lie within the bounds for the reduced order model, implying that the reduced-order model provides a conservative estimate. Moreover, we found that except for first-passage times and late arriving mass, the production curves from the reduced-order model predict transport accurately. However, it is to be noted that the results are inspite of trading a three-dimensional geometry for a reduced system in the form of a graph, one that is 500–1000 times faster in terms of computational efficiency (for this particular application). In addition, we also compare the production curves for large drawdown and small drawdown using our graph approach. The reduced-order model is successful in showing that the long term productivity is higher in case of small drawdown although the initial productivity is higher for large drawdown. Thus, this reduced-order model offers great potential in uncertainty quantification for production, as well as in providing operators with information to make real-time decisions for optimal production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

Performance of a Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstem (DAISY) for characterizing radiated noise from marine energy converters

Marine energy converters can generate electricity from energetic ocean waves and water currents. Because sound is extensively used by marine animals, the radiated noise from these systems is of regulatory interest. However, the energetic nature of these locations poses challenges for performing accurate passive acoustic measurements, particularly with stationary platforms. The Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstem (DAISY) is a modular hydrophone recording system purpose-built for marine energy environments. Using a flow shield in currents and mass–spring–damper suspension system in waves, we demonstrate that DAISYs can effectively minimize the masking effect of flow noise at frequencies down to 10 Hz. In addition, we show that groups of DAISYs can utilize time-delay-of-arrival post-processing to attribute radiated noise to a specific source. Consequently, DAISYs can rapidly measure radiated noise at all frequencies of interest for prototype marine energy converters. Furthermore, the resulting information from future operational deployments should support regulatory decision-making and allow technology developers to make design adjustments that minimize the potential for acoustic impacts as their systems are scaled up for utility-scale power generation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

SeismoGen: Seismic Waveform Synthesis Using GAN With Application to Seismic Data Augmentation

Abstract Detecting earthquake arrivals within seismic time series can be a challenging task. Visual, human detection has long been considered the gold standard but requires intensive manual labor that scales poorly to large data sets. In recent years, automatic detection methods based on machine learning have been developed to improve the accuracy and efficiency. However, the accuracy of those methods relies on access to a sufficient amount of high‐quality labeled training data, often tens of thousands of records or more. We aim to resolve this dilemma by answering two questions: (1) provided with a limited amount of reliable labeled data, can we use them to generate additional, realistic synthetic waveform data? and (2) can we use those synthetic data to further enrich the training set through data augmentation, thereby enhancing detection algorithms? To address these questions, we use a generative adversarial network (GAN), a type of machine learning model which has shown supreme capability in generating high‐quality synthetic samples in multiple domains. Once trained, our GAN model is capable of producing realistic seismic waveforms of multiple labels (noise and event classes). Applied to real Earth seismic data sets in Oklahoma, we show that data augmentation from our GAN‐generated synthetic waveforms can be used to improve earthquake detection algorithms in instances when only small amounts of labeled training data are available.

Wang, Tiantong↗

Insights from designing an artificial cascade catalysis system using principles from substrate channeling in enzymes

Generalizing the key requirements of highly-selective, multi-step chemical conversions involving spatially separated reaction centers remains one of the grand challenges of chemistry. Much work towards this effort has focused on decomposing multi-step conversions into their constituent reactions, whose intermediates are successively upgraded in a chemical cascade via diffusion from center to center. This approach for synthesizing more complex molecules takes its cues from biochemical networks, where near-unit conversion of even complex carbohydrates is achieved by upgrading chemical precursors via enzymatic cascades. In this computational study we examine a simple cascade involving coupled Ag and Cu catalysts that sequentially converts CO2 to CO and then CO2 and CO to reduced products, generically named CO2Product and COProduct. The system architecture is inspired by the phenomenon of biological substrate channeling, and components are examined to evaluate their effects on conversion efficiency in the cascade. Aside from a substrate channel linking two reaction centers, we find efficient cascades must also incorporate directional substrate diffusion, compartmentalization of the reaction centers, and proper timing of substrate arrival at the active center. We make explicit linkages between these requirements and chemical conversion in known biological systems, revealing additional control elements that could be incorporated.

CO 2 reduction↗

Gravitational wave propagation beyond general relativity: waveform distortions and echoes

We study the cosmological propagation of gravitational waves (GWs) beyond general relativity (GR) across homogeneous and isotropic backgrounds. We consider scenarios in which GWs interact with an additional tensor field and use a parametrized phenomenological approach that generically describes their coupled equations of motion. We analyze four distinct classes of derivative and non-derivative interactions: mass, friction, velocity, and chiral. We apply the WKB formalism to account for the cosmological evolution and obtain analytical solutions to these equations. We corroborate these results by analyzing numerically the propagation of a toy GW signal. We then proceed to use the analytical results to study the modified propagation of realistic GWs from merging compact binaries, assuming that the GW signal emitted is the same as in GR. We generically find that tensor interactions lead to copies of the originally emitted GW signal, each one with its own possibly modified dispersion relation. These copies can travel coherently and interfere with each other leading to a scrambled GW signal, or propagate decoherently and lead to echoes arriving at different times at the observer that could be misidentified as independent GW events. Depending on the type of tensor interaction, the detected GW signal may exhibit amplitude and phase distortions with respect to a GW waveform in GR, as well as birefringence effects. Furthermore, we discuss observational probes of these tensor interactions with both individual GW events, as well as population studies for both ground- and space-based detectors.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Polarization-resolved core exciton dynamics in LiF using attosecond transient absorption spectroscopy

The ability to control absorption by modifying the polarization of light presents an exciting opportunity to experimentally determine the orbital alignment of absorption features. Here, attosecond extreme ultraviolet (XUV) transient absorption spectroscopy is used to investigate the polarization dependence of core exciton dynamics in LiF thin films at the Li + K edge. XUV pulses excite electrons from the Li 1s core level into the conduction band, allowing for the formation of a p-orbital-like core exciton, aligned along the XUV light polarization axis. A sub-5 fs near-infrared (NIR) probe pulse then arrives at variable time delays, perturbing the XUV-excited states and allowing the coherence decay of the core exciton to be mapped. The coherence lifetimes are found to be ≈ 2.4 ± 0.4 fs, which is attributed to a phonon-mediated dephasing mechanism as in previous core exciton studies. The differential absorption features are also shown to be sensitive to the relative polarization of the XUV and NIR fields. The parallel NIR probe induces couplings between the initial XUV-excited p-like bright exciton and s-like dark excitons. When crossed pump and probe polarizations are used, the coupling between the bright and dark states is no longer dipole-allowed, and the transient absorption signal associated with the coupling is suppressed by approximately 90%. This interpretation is supported by simulations of a few-level model system, as well as analysis of the calculated band structure. Here, the results indicate that laser polarization can serve as a powerful experimental tool for exploring the orbital alignment of core excitonic states in solid-state materials.

Attosecond laser spectroscopy↗

Indoor Wireless Localization of Uncooperative Sources Using a Ray Tracing Model

Indoor geolocation of radio frequency (RF) trans- mitters is challenging due to site-specific multipath effects, especially when the sources are uncooperative. A source being uncooperative means that a-priori the transmit time, location, and power are unknown. It is proposed to use a site-specific ray tracing model to generate realistic indoor RF responses, perform geolocation using multiple methods, and compare their performance. This work will look at two types of geolocation algorithms: (1) time-difference of arrival (TDOA) and (2) re- ceived signal strength Indicator (RSSI) fingerprinting or pattern- matching-based methods. An indoor space will be simulated with a grid of fixed receivers and a grid of transmit locations using Remcom’s Wireless InSite. Using the output of the Wireless InSite simulation the response from any given transmit location can be generated and used to evaluate geolocation performance.

indoor source localization, Wireless InSite, re- c↗

Approaches to attributing underwater noise to a wave energy converter

Radiated noise from marine energy harvesting is of environmental and engineering interest. Here, drifting hydrophones measure underwater noise in the vicinity of a relatively small wave energy converter. A statistical approach is demonstrated for attributing range-dependent, commonly occurring sounds in the frequency band from 90 to 600 Hz. Time-delay-of-arrival localization is then demonstrated for attribution of individual acoustic events likely associated with the power takeoff and wave-hull interactions. Because the radiated noise from the wave energy converter falls below ambient levels at a range of approximately 150 m, it is unlikely to substantially affect marine life at greater distance.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DAISY Benchmark Performance Data

This repository contains the underlying data from benchmark experiments for Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstems (DAISYs) in waves and currents described in "Performance of a Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstem (DAISY) for Characterizing Radiated Noise from Marine Energy Converters" (https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40722-024-00358-6). DAISYs consist of a surface expression connected to a hydrophone recording package by a tether. Both elements are instrumented to provide metadata (e.g., position, orientation, and depth). Information about how to build DAISYs is available at https://www.pmec.us/research-projects/daisy. The repository's primary content is three compressed archives (.zip format), each containing multiple MATLAB binary data files (.mat format). A table relating individual data files to figures in the paper, as well as the structure of each file, is included in the repository as a Word document (Data Description MHK-DR.docx). Most of the files contain time series information for a single DAISY deployment (file naming convention: [site]_DAISY_[Drift #].mat) consisting of processed hydrophone data and associated metadata. For a limited number of DAISY deployments, the hydrophone package was replaced with an acoustic Doppler velocimeter (file naming convention: [site]_DAISY_[Drift #]_ADV.mat). Data were collected over several years at three locations: (1) Sequim Bay at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory's Marine & Coastal Research Laboratory (MCRL) in Sequim, WA, the energetic tidal channel in Admiralty Inlet, WA (Admiralty Inlet), and the U.S. Navy's Wave Energy Test Site (WETS) in Kaneohe, HI. Brief descriptions of data files at each location follow. - MCRL - (1) Drift #4 and #16 contrast the performance of a DAISY and a reference hydrophone (icListen HF Reson), respectively, in the quiescent interior of Sequim Bay (September 2020). (2) Drift #152 and #153 are velocity measurements for a drifting acoustic Doppler velocimeter in in the tidally-energetic entrance channel inside a flow shield and exposed to the flow, respectively (January 2018). (3) Two non-standard files are also included: DAISY_data.mat corresponds to a subset of a DAISY drift over an Adaptable Monitoring Package (AMP) and AMP_data.mat corresponds to approximately co-temporal data for a stationary hydrophone on the AMP (February 2019). - Admiralty Inlet - (1) Drift #1-12 correspond to tests with flow shielded DAISYs, unshielded DAISYs, a reference hydrophone, and drifting acoustic Doppler velocimeter with 5, 10, and 15 m tether lengths between surface expression and hydrophone recording package (July 2022). (2) Drift #13-20 correspond to tests of flow shielded DAISYs with three different tether materials (rubber cord, nylon line, and faired nylon line) in lengths of 5, 10, and 15 m (July 2022). - WETS - (1) Drift #30-32 correspond to tests with a heave plate incorporated into the tether (standard configuration for wave sites), rubber cord only, and rubber cord, but with a flow shielded hydrophone (November 2022). (2) Drift #49-58 and Drift #65-68 correspond to measurements around mooring infrastructure at the 60 m berth where time-delay-of-arrival localization was demonstrated for different DAISY arrangements and hydrophone depths (November 2022).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

TEAMER - Acoustic Particle Velocity Measurements - CRADA 601 (Abstract)

With relatively few deployments of tidal turbines, the extent and effect of underwater sounds generated from these turbines is not well understood. The University of Washington (UW) is deploying a cross-flow turbine system, the Turbine Lander, in the entrance channel to Sequim Bay. The deployment of this system provides an opportunity to understand the noise radiated by the turbine and its sources. There are three hypothesized sound sources associated with operation of the turbine: 1) a continuous tone associated with energized power electronics; 2) sound associated with the generator when the turbine is rotating; and 3) sound associated with the bearing pack that supports the rotor. PNNL is collaborating with UW and Integral Consulting Inc. (Integral) to simultaneously measure sound sources using three different devices. The NoiseSpotter®, an acoustic sensor system designed by Integral, measures acoustic pressure and a three-dimensional particle velocity vector. The NoiseSpotter, along with a commercial-off-the-shelf acoustic particle motion and pressure sensor (M20-105, Geospectrum Technologies Inc.) owned by PNNL will be deployed on the seabed approximately 50-100 m from the Turbine Lander. UW will concurrently deploy Drifting Acoustic Instrumentation SYstems (DAISYs) to characterize acoustic pressure near the Turbine Lander and localize sounds using a Time Delay of Arrival (TDOA) algorithm. Integral, UW, and PNNL will collaborate on data analysis and interpretation, with the intention of jointly authoring an archival paper on the results. The noise generated from the Turbine Lander is not expected to be significant, yet this experiment will help to evaluate the efficacy of combining technologies to characterize noise and provide insights for approaches to consider for future turbine deployments at other locations.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Frequency Emitter Geolocation Using Signal Strength Fingerprinting Informed By 3D Propagation Modeling

This work focuses on the problem of RF geolocation in complex multipath environments. Using 3D electromagnetic propagation modeling to characterize environments of interest will enable more accurate RF geolocation. Specifically, a path-loss radio map can be generated in simulation for use in received signal strength indicators (RSSI) fingerprinting, or pattern matching. RSSI fingerprinting is an example of data-based method that takes site specific information into account which should allow for better performance than other model-based methods that use a generalized model of electromagnetic propagation. This modeling capability will also be used to evaluate the relative performance of RSSI fingerprinting, pathloss model based RSSI methods such as differential received signal strength circles (DRSS), RSSI joint gaussian estimation, and time-difference of arrival (TDOA). New methods using this simulation derived electromagnetic characterization could improve the efficacy of currently deployed and future RF spectral monitoring solutions. Wireless InSite developed by Remcom is used as the simulation tool of choice in this work. An indoor location is simulated with a grid of fixed receivers and a grid of transmit locations. Using the output of the Wireless InSite simulation the response from a given transmit location to a given receive location can be generated. During the first year of the project various geolocation methods evaluated on purely synthetic, but realistic, data. The second year focused on testing and validating the efficacy of simulation informed RF geolocation using two physical testbeds. This work has shown that data-based approaches are more accurate than model-based ones at the expensive of requiring measured or simulated site-specific training data.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DAISY: A Rapid Approach to Evaluating Marine Energy Converter Sound (Final Technical Report)

This project’s objective was to improve the quality of acoustic information about marine energy converters that could be collected from groups of drifting hydrophones, while reducing the costs of deployment and data analysis. This was achieved through technology development addressing four focus areas: (1) minimizing flow-noise and self-noise, (2) integrating metadata streams into a single data acquisition system, (3) developing post-processing routines to facilitate rapid data review, and (4) enabling objective identification of marine energy converter sound against a backdrop of ambient noise using time-delay-of-arrival localization.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Experimental Investigation of Steel-Borne Acoustic Pulses for Fault Pinpointing in Pipe-Type Cable Systems: A Scaled-Down Model Approach

Pipe-type cable systems, including high-pressure fluid-filled (HPFF) and high-pressure gas-filled cables, are widely used for underground high-voltage transmission. These systems consist of insulated conductor cables within steel pipes, filled with pressurized fluids or gases for insulation and cooling. Despite their reliability, faults can occur due to insulation degradation, thermal expansion, and environmental factors. As many circuits exceed their 40-year design life, efficient fault localization becomes crucial. Fault location involves prelocation and pinpointing. Therefore, a novel pinpointing approach for pipe-type cable systems is proposed, utilizing accelerometers mounted on a steel pipe to capture fault-induced acoustic signals and employing the time difference of arrival method to accurately pinpoint the location of the fault. The experimental investigations utilized a scaled-down HPFF pipe-type cable system setup, featuring a carbon steel pipe, high-frequency accelerometers, and both mechanical and capacitive discharge methods for generating acoustic pulses. The tests evaluated the propagation velocity, attenuation, and pinpointing accuracy with the pipe in various embedment conditions. The experimental results demonstrated accurate fault pinpointing in the centimeter range, even when the pipe was fully embedded, with the acoustic pulse velocities aligning closely with the theoretical values. These experimental investigation findings highlight the potential of this novel acoustic pinpointing technique to improve fault localization in underground systems, enhance grid reliability, and reduce outage duration. Further research is recommended to validate this approach in full-scale systems.

Moutassem, Zaki↗

Online Learning and Pricing for Service Systems with Reusable Resources

We consider a price-based revenue management problem with finite reusable resources over a finite time horizon T. Customers arrive following a price-dependent Poisson process, and each customer requests one unit of c homogeneous reusable resources. If there is an available unit, the customer gets served within a price-dependent exponentially distributed service time; otherwise, the customer waits in a queue until the next available unit. In this paper, we assume that the firm does not know how the arrival and service rates depend on posted prices, and thus it makes adaptive pricing decisions in each period based only on past observations to maximize the cumulative revenue. Given a discrete price set with cardinality P, we propose two online learning algorithms, termed batch upper confidence bound (BUCB) and batch Thompson sampling (BTS), and prove that the cumulative regret upper bound is O˜(√PT) , which matches the regret lower bound. In establishing the regret, we bound the transient system performance upon price changes via a novel coupling argument, and also generalize bandits to accommodate subexponential rewards. Here, we also extend our approach to models with balking and reneging customers and discuss a continuous price setting. Our numerical experiments demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed BUCB and BTS algorithms.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Design of a Level-1 Long-Lived Particle Trigger in the CMS Hadron Calorimeter

The Hadron Calorimeter (HCAL) in the Compact Muon Solenoid (CMS) experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) was recently upgraded for Run 3 to introduce depth segmentation and online timing measurements, expanding the physics capabilities. In particular, the augmentation of the calorimeter information at the hardware trigger level enables quick identification and recording of long-lived particle decays using lower thresholds on energy-based event quantities. The depth segmentation and online timing capabilities are utilized in novel HCAL-based hardware-level triggers to identify displaced and delayed long-lived particles (LLPs), either decaying inside the calorimeter volume or arriving at a delayed time. This increases the sensitivity to LLP decays occurring up to almost 6 m from the collision point. This two-pronged calorimeter trigger approach leverages the new capabilities of the CMS HCAL to expand the phase space accessible in ongoing LLP searches. These triggers were deployed for Run 3 of the LHC, beginning data-taking in 2022, and we review the trigger implementation and calibration.

Kopp, Gillian Baron [Princeton University, NJ (Uni↗

An implicit solution for Asay foil trajectories generated by separable, sustained-production ejecta source models

We present a simple implicit solution for the time-dependent trajectory of a thin Asay foil ejecta diagnostic for the general case where the impinging ejecta cloud is generated by a source function characterized by an arbitrary (sustained) time dependence and a time-independent (stationary) particle velocity distribution. In the limit that the source function time dependence becomes a delta function, this solution—which is amenable to rapid numerical calculations of arbitrary accuracy—exactly recovers a previously published solution for the special case of instantaneous ejecta production. We also derive simple expressions for the free-surface arrival (catch-up) time as well as the true ejecta areal mass accumulation on the accelerating foil and place bounds on the level of error incurred when applying instant-production mass solutions to a sustained-production trajectory. We demonstrate these solutions with example calculations for hypothetical source functions spanning a wide range of ejecta production durations, velocity distributions, and temporal behaviors. These calculations demonstrate how the foil trajectory is often insensitive to the temporal dependence of the source function, instead being dominated by the velocity distribution. We quantify this insensitivity using a “compatibility score” metric. Under certain conditions, one may capitalize upon this insensitivity to obtain a good approximation of the second integral of the velocity distribution from the observed foil trajectory.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

SKS Polarization Anomalies Due to the Coriolis Force

The Earth’s Coriolis force has been well–known to impact surface waves and normal modes, which is essential to accurately interpret these waves. However, the Coriolis force on body waves has been assumed to be negligible and mostly ignored. It has been previously shown that the Coriolis force impacts polarizations of shear waves, whereas the wavefronts remain unaffected. We expand on the potential influences of Earth’s Coriolis force on shear–wave polarization measurements by conducting 3D numerical simulations for elastic waves generated by earthquake and explosive sources in a radially symmetric, and 3D mantle and crustal models. The Coriolis force can produce polarization anomalies of mantle shear waves up to 7° and core phases, such as SKS and SKKS, up to 4°. Uncorrected shear–wave polarizations due to the Coriolis force can cause an additional source of error (5°–10° in fast direction, and 0.2–0.3 s delay time depending on the method and seismic phase), inaccurate interpretation of station misalignments, and imprecise estimates of the core–mantle boundary topography. We show how to correct for the Coriolis force on teleseismic shear waves using 1D ray tracing for well–isolated phases. Here, we recommend the use of full waveform simulations to accurately account for earthquake sources parameters, poorly isolated phases that could include interfering phase arrivals within the measurement time window, and the effect of the Coriolis force on the polarizations of shear waves.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗