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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15

Bayesian reduced-order deep learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by partial differential equations

We propose a reduced-order deep-learning surrogate model for dynamic systems described by time-dependent partial differential equations. This method employs space–time Karhunen–Loève expansions (KLEs) of the state variables and space-dependent KLEs of space-varying parameters to identify the reduced (latent) dimensions. Subsequently, a deep neural network (DNN) is used to map the parameter latent space to the state variable latent space. An approximate Bayesian method is developed for uncertainty quantification (UQ) in the proposed KL-DNN surrogate model. The KL-DNN method is tested for the linear advection–diffusion and nonlinear diffusion equations, and the Bayesian approach for UQ is compared with the deep ensembling (DE) approach, commonly used for quantifying uncertainty in DNN models. It was found that the approximate Bayesian method provides a more informative distribution of the PDE solutions in terms of the coverage of the reference PDE solutions (the percentage of nodes where the reference solution is within the confidence interval predicted by the UQ methods) and log predictive probability. The DE method is found to underestimate uncertainty and introduce bias. For the nonlinear diffusion equation, we compare the KL-DNN method with the Fourier Neural Operator (FNO) method and find that KL-DNN is 10% more accurate and needs less training time than the FNO method.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Uncertainty quantification of fireball features extracted from nuclear test films using computer vision

Films from the US’s historic nuclear testing era comprise the only extensive collection of imagery depicting high-yield detonations. These films offer unique insights into the characteristics of flows occurring on scales that are difficult to replicate experimentally, and they are a valuable source of data for the validation of models used to describe nuclear detonations. In recent work, we implemented modern computer vision and machine learning techniques to extract features of the fireball following nuclear detonation. With a training dataset of fireball films, we fine-tuned a You Only Look Once 11 (YOLO11) model to detect and track the fireball. Applied to a video, the outer bounding box produced in each frame by YOLO11 is used as an input prompt to Meta’s Segment Anything Model 2 (SAM2), which is shown to accurately predict the boundary of the fireball over time with high resolution. These state-of-the-art computer vision foundation models exhibit impressive visual accuracy in their results but lack an output of values that robustly quantify uncertainty in scientific applications. In this paper, we develop procedures for uncertainty quantification of extracted fireball features. We outline the application of a parallel attention mechanism to calculate uncertainty ranges that complement and better pose model validation data. This higher quality fireball validation data may serve to improve prognostic models describing nuclear detonations in support of nuclear forensic and emergency response activities.

Khristy, Joel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000209963060)↗

Assessing entropy for catalytic processes at complex reactive interfaces

When chemical reactions are accelerated by a catalyst, entropy differences between reactants and their transient intermediates can be the driving force behind the promotion or inhibition of desired and parasitic chemical pathways. Understanding and controlling catalytic processes therefore requires both a fundamental and practicable understanding of entropy in addition to enthalpy. In unstructured media such as the vapor phase equilibrated with sparsely covered surfaces, entropy can be adequately accounted for by well-established approaches based on translational, rotational, and harmonic vibrational partition functions. However, these approximations become inadequate in more complex condensed phase environments, e.g., solid liquid interfaces of confined reaction spaces. In this chapter, we provide an overview of the state-of-art in the computational quantification of entropy and its known ramifications on catalysis. The fundamental roles of thermodynamics and kinetics in catalysis are covered in enough detail to appreciate and contextualize the computational methods employed to compute chemically accurate estimates of entropy. These methods are discussed in appropriate detail and range from the ubiquitous harmonic oscillator approximation where entropy unrelated to high frequency oscillations is typically underestimated, to enhanced free energy sampling with molecular dynamics where the desired accuracy must be weighed against the associated computational cost of obtaining it. The rising importance of machine learning and artificial intelligence in accelerating methodological progress in this field is touched upon, as well. Finally, applications, successes, and pitfalls of using these methods are provided to showcase past and present accomplishments while clarifying where improvements in both understanding and methodology are still needed.

Kollias, Loukas↗

Autonomous Radiation Mapping and Quantification using an Unmanned Ground Vehicle. Part II - Autonomous Navigation

Nuclear sites across the Unites States and other nations in the world, are prone to extreme radiation effects. To understand the radiation hazards, plan the cleanup efforts; and to meet the quality standards and guidelines, it is important to accurately characterize any nuclear facility. One of the current methods in characterizing facilities is the use of advanced autonomous systems. These are safe, efficient, and cost-effective tools, which can safely deploy state-of-the-art instrumentation without exposing workers to radiation risks. Conventional methods of taking radiation measurements by hand within or around the containment areas, and analyzing the collected data to obtain the result are: Ineffective, Puts scientists at risk of Radiation, Not cost-effective. The platform uses the Robotic Operating Systems (ROS) to integrate multiple sensors seamlessly. It can operate near real time by using a distributed processing system to handle large amounts of data: Surrounding cameras, A multi-channel 3D Lidar, Manipulator arm, High-performance gamma-ray spectrometer.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

An expectation–maximization framework for comprehensive prediction of isoform-specific functions

Advances in RNA sequencing technologies have achieved an unprecedented accuracy in the quantification of mRNA isoforms, but our knowledge of isoform-specific functions has lagged behind. There is a need to understand the functional consequences of differential splicing, which could be supported by the generation of accurate and comprehensive isoform-specific gene ontology annotations. We present isoform interpretation, a method that uses expectation–maximization to infer isoform-specific functions based on the relationship between sequence and functional isoform similarity. We predicted isoform-specific functional annotations for 85 617 isoforms of 17 900 protein-coding human genes spanning a range of 17 430 distinct gene ontology terms. Comparison with a gold-standard corpus of manually annotated human isoform functions showed that isoform interpretation significantly outperforms state-of-the-art competing methods. We provide experimental evidence that functionally related isoforms predicted by isoform interpretation show a higher degree of domain sharing and expression correlation than functionally related genes. We also show that isoform sequence similarity correlates better with inferred isoform function than with gene-level function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Machine learning materials properties with accurate predictions, uncertainty estimates, domain guidance, and persistent online accessibility

One compelling vision of the future of materials discovery and design involves the use of machine learning (ML) models to predict materials properties and then rapidly find materials tailored for specific applications. However, realizing this vision requires both providing detailed uncertainty quantification (model prediction errors and domain of applicability) and making models readily usable. At present, it is common practice in the community to assess ML model performance only in terms of prediction accuracy (e.g. mean absolute error), while neglecting detailed uncertainty quantification and robust model accessibility and usability. Here, we demonstrate a practical method for realizing both uncertainty and accessibility features with a large set of models. We develop random forest ML models for 33 materials properties spanning an array of data sources (computational and experimental) and property types (electrical, mechanical, thermodynamic, etc). All models have calibrated ensemble error bars to quantify prediction uncertainty and domain of applicability guidance enabled by kernel-density-estimate-based feature distance measures. All data and models are publicly hosted on the Garden-AI infrastructure, which provides an easy-to-use, persistent interface for model dissemination that permits models to be invoked with only a few lines of Python code. We demonstrate the power of this approach by using our models to conduct a fully ML-based materials discovery exercise to search for new stable, highly active perovskite oxide catalyst materials.

domain of applicability↗

Error quantification and comparison of binary neutron star gravitational waveforms from numerical relativity codes

Future gravitational wave detections of merging binary neutron star systems have the possibility to tightly constrain the equation of state of dense nuclear matter. In order to extract such constraints, gravitational waveform models need to be calibrated to accurate numerical relativity simulations of the late inspiral and merger. In this work, we take an essential step toward classifying the error and potential systematics in current generation numerical relativity simulations of merging binary neutron stars. To this end, we perform a direct comparison of two codes (fil, spec), which differ in many aspects, including the numerical methods and discretizations used and equations solved. We find that despite these different approaches, the codes are—within current numerical resolution bounds—fully consistent, and broadly comparable in cost for a given accuracy level. Our results indicate that the error in the waveforms is primarily dominated by the hydrodynamic evolution, consistent with earlier findings in the literature. Finally, we also discuss current limitations and cost estimates for numerical relativity simulations to reach the accuracies required in the era of next-generation gravitational detectors.

gravitational waves↗

Denoising Autoencoder for Reconstructing Sensor Observation Data and Predicting Evapotranspiration: Noisy and Missing Values Repair and Uncertainty Quantification

Abstract Machine learning (ML) methods applied in scientific research often deal with interrelated features in high‐dimensional data. Reducing data noise and redundancy is needed to increase prediction accuracy and efficiency especially when dealing with data from field sensors. We explored an unsupervised learning method, the denoising autoencoder (DAE), to extract the underlying data structure from noisy raw data in the context of predicting hydrologic quantities from multiple field sensors. These sensors have intrinsic instrumental noise and occasional malfunctions that cause missing values. Our DAE neural network reconstructed meteorological sensor data containing noise and missing values to predict evapotranspiration in a mountainous watershed. The DAE reconstructed the sensor variables with a mean coefficient of determination value of 0.77 across 15 dimensions representing individual sensors. It reduced variance and bias uncertainties compared to a classical autoencoder model. The reconstruction quality varied across dimensions depending on their cross‐correlation and alignment with the underlying data structure. Uncertainties arising from the model structure were overall higher than those resulting from data corruption. We attached the DAE structure to a downstream ET‐prediction neural network in three formats and achieved reasonably accurate ET predictions . The use of the DAE notably reduced variance uncertainty in ET prediction. However, excessive variance reduction may be accompanied by an increase in bias due to the intrinsic bias‐variance tradeoff. Our method of evaluating and reducing uncertainties in aggregated data from different sources can be used to improve predictive models, process understanding, and uncertainty quantification for better water resource management. Plain Language Summary We present a machine learning method, namely the denoising autoencoder, which reduces the effects of data noise and missing values typically present in scientific data sets collected through sensor measurements. This method selects the most relevant information from noisy raw data collected by the instruments and fills in missing values. To demonstrate the effectiveness of our method, we applied it to predict evapotranspiration, a hydrologic variable that represents the water moved from the land surface to the atmosphere through a combination of evaporation and plant water use (transpiration). We also used a random sampling technique (the Monte Carlo method) to compare the uncertainty in the predictions when using the raw and noisy data versus the reconstructed data. The denoising process produced more accurate predictions of evapotranspiration with less uncertainty. Improved predictions of evapotranspiration can lead to a better understanding and accounting of water budgets. This ML approach is broadly suitable for a wide variety of applications that involve noisy sensor data with missing values. Key Points We used a denoising autoencoder (DAE) neural network to reduce noise in meteorological and soil sensor observations by on average We used Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the bias and variance of all model outputs, including uncertainty sources from data and the model We attached the DAE component to a downstream neural network to predict ET with the variance reduced by , compared to that without the DAE

denoising autoencoder↗

New Capability at ORNL: High Precision Uranium Titration

Destructive analytical measurements establish a nuclear facility’s nuclear material inventory and inventory differences for Nuclear Material Accountancy and Control. A nuclear laboratory’s ability to perform accurate high-precision analytical measurements is key for tracking large inventories within a facility’s material balance areas and during production to track material movement through dynamic processes. For uranium, these measurements are made by using several established high-precision measurement protocols. These include isotope dilution mass spectrometry, gravimetry, and potentiometric titrations. Whatever measurement technique a nuclear lab chooses to use, reference materials (RMs) with certified attributes and accompanying uncertainties are used to calibrate measurement systems, and are the cornerstone for accurate results. In addition to calibration, RMs provide for metrological traceability, are used for method development and validation, and thus provide critical evaluations of the appropriateness and performance of analytical processes used. Evaluations may include validation that a method is fit-for-purpose, quantification of systematic and random biases, and the evaluation of long-term and short-term performance metrics. High-precision measurement techniques require that measured attributes be certified to a high degree of precision in the RMs used—ultimately, to a higher degree than that of the measurement technique itself. The US authority on the production of special nuclear material Certified Reference Materials is the NBL Program Office (NBLPO), formally known as New Brunswick Laboratory (NBL). The NBLPO is responsible for the sales and distribution of existing NBL certified reference materials (CRMs) and for the production of the next generation of nuclear RMs. To accomplish its mission, NBLPO is establishing key base capabilities within the DOE laboratory complex that formerly existed at the NBL laboratory. The Nuclear Analytical Chemistry (NAC) section within the Chemical Sciences Division (CSD) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is currently working with NBLPO to set up laboratory and measurement capabilities to provide measurements and capabilities for production and/or recertification of existing and future CRMs for uranium assay. The NBL-developed high-precision titration (HPT) method is a critically-evaluated, extremely precise and accurate primary method utilized for the determination of uranium content in a variety of uranium materials. The HPT method, combined with detailed balance weighing protocols, provides for an analytical methodology that is unsurpassed in precision and one in which all sources of error have been evaluated, a requirement of CRM certification. HPT capability within the United States was lost with the closure of the labs at NBL. The NAC has been collaborating with NBLPO to stand up and demonstrate the capability to perform uranium assay via HPT at ORNL. HPT can produce results with an expanded uncertainty of approximately 0.01% for pure uranium compounds, with typical precisions of <0.006%. The major tasks required to stand up the method at ORNL were the refurbishment of a dedicated lab and equipment setup, procedure development, analyst training, establishing method-specific quality assurance, and qualification of an analyst to perform the method. This report summarizes these tasks, outlines the documents drafted, and gives the outcome of the qualification titrations.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

How Can Construction Process Simulation Modeling Aid the Integration of Lean Principles in the Factory-Built Housing Industry?

New and existing factories that produce and deliver factory-built housing can benefit from construction process simulation modeling to explore the integration of Lean principles in their operations. Construction process simulation modeling provides digital or virtual recreations of the real-world factory environments to visualize, quantify, analyze, and optimize their underlying behavior, including factory productivity, material flow, labor dynamics, bottlenecks, and work scope. One of the key benefits of process simulation modeling is the ability to create and compare "what-if" scenarios, including integrating Lean principles such as reducing waste (for example, transportation, waiting), line balancing, and just-in-time concepts. In general, three process simulation methods are widely used: discrete event simulation (DES), agentbased modeling (ABM), and system dynamics (SD). Myriad process simulation software also is available, but depending on the industry, complexity of the system, and purposes of the simulation, some software might be more appropriate. Similar to how computer-aided design (CAD) software such as AutoCAD and Rhinoceros enable building design of modular or factory-built housing, process simulation modeling software such as jStrobe, ProModel, and AnyLogic can enable factory design of new and existing factories to deliver modular affordable housing at scale, as opposed to traditional site-built construction. Software with DES capabilities can help generate a process model that is a logical representation of resources and activities in a factory. Software with CAD-DES integration can leverage product-process data integration to help spatially visualize a DES model of the factory in the CAD environment. Software with multimethod simulation capabilities, widely used in the manufacturing industry, brings together DES, ABM, and SD in a single platform that allows visualization, quantification, analyses, and optimization at varying data fidelities. Near-real-time data from an existing factory can be directly plugged into multimethod simulation software so that the construction process simulation model is a near-accurate representation of the real-world factory conditions. This report provides insights into the use of simulation as an aid to integrate Lean concepts in factories, including guidelines for selecting the appropriate process simulation modeling method and software. These insights have been developed as part of ongoing process simulation modeling research, development, and demonstration projects at the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory focused on how process simulation models can enable better integration of resilience, energy efficiency, and low-carbon design strategies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Quantifying leaf symptoms of sorghum charcoal rot in images of field‐grown plants using deep neural networks

Abstract Charcoal rot of sorghum (CRS) is a significant disease affecting sorghum crops, with limited genetic resistance available. The causative agent, Macrophomina phaseolina (Tassi) Goid, is a highly destructive fungal pathogen that targets over 500 plant species globally, including essential staple crops. Utilizing field image data for precise detection and quantification of CRS could greatly assist in the prompt identification and management of affected fields and thereby reduce yield losses. The objective of this work was to implement various machine learning algorithms to evaluate their ability to accurately detect and quantify CRS in red‐green‐blue images of sorghum plants exhibiting symptoms of infection. EfficientNet‐B3 and a fully convolutional network emerged as the top‐performing models for image classification and segmentation tasks, respectively. Among the classification models evaluated, EfficientNet‐B3 demonstrated superior performance, achieving an accuracy of 86.97%, a recall rate of 0.71, and an F1 score of 0.73. Of the segmentation models tested, FCN proved to be the most effective, exhibiting a validation accuracy of 97.76%, a recall rate of 0.68, and an F1 score of 0.66. As the size of the image patches increased, both models’ validation scores increased linearly, and their inference time decreased exponentially. This trend could be attributed to larger patches containing more information, improving model performance, and fewer patches reducing the computational load, thus decreasing inference time. The models, in addition to being immediately useful for breeders and growers of sorghum, advance the domain of automated plant phenotyping and may serve as a foundation for drone‐based or other automated field phenotyping efforts. Additionally, the models presented herein can be accessed through a web‐based application where users can easily analyze their own images.

Gonzalez, Emmanuel M.↗

Harnessing on-machine metrology data for prints with a surrogate model for laser powder directed energy deposition

In this study, we leverage the massive amount of multi-modal on-machine metrology data generated from Laser Powder Directed Energy Deposition (LP-DED) to construct a comprehensive surrogate model of the 3D printing process. By employing Dynamic Mode Decomposition with Control (DMDc), a data-driven technique, we capture the complex physics inherent in this extensive dataset. This physics-based surrogate model emphasizes thermodynamically significant quantities, enabling us to accurately predict key process outcomes. The model ingests 21 process parameters, including laser power, scan rate, and position, while providing outputs such as melt pool temperature, melt pool size, and other essential observables. Furthermore, it incorporates uncertainty quantification to provide bounds on these predictions, enhancing reliability and confidence in the results. We then deploy the surrogate model on a new, unseen part and monitor the printing process as validation of the method. Our experimental results demonstrate that the predictions align with actual measurements with high accuracy, confirming the effectiveness of our approach. Furthermore, this methodology not only facilitates real-time predictions but also operates at process-relevant speeds, establishing a basis for implementing feedback control in LP-DED.

Digital twins↗

Multi-element flow-driven spectral chaos (ME-FSC) method for uncertainty quantification of dynamical systems

The flow-driven spectral chaos (FSC) is a recently developed method for tracking and quantifying uncertainties in the long-time response of stochastic dynamical systems using the spectral approach. The method uses a novel concept called enriched stochastic flow maps as a means to construct an evolving finite-dimensional random function space that is both accurate and computationally efficient in time. In this paper, we present a multi-element version of the FSC method (the ME-FSC method for short) to tackle (mainly) those dynamical systems that are inherently discontinuous over the probability space. In ME-FSC, the random domain is partitioned into several elements, and then the problem is solved separately on each random element using the FSC method. Subsequently, results are aggregated to compute the probability moments of interest using the law of total probability. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the ME-FSC method in dealing with discontinuities and long-time integration of stochastic dynamical systems, four representative numerical examples are presented in this paper, including the Van-der-Pol oscillator problem and the Kraichnan-Orszag three-mode problem. Results show that the ME-FSC method is capable of solving problems that have strong nonlinear dependencies over the probability space, both reliably and at low computational cost.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

FAIR Data and Interpretable AI Framework for Architectured Metamaterials (Final Report)

This research program established a transformative framework for the discovery and design of mechanical metamaterials, which are architected structures engineered to control physical phenomena like sound and vibration in ways natural materials cannot. To overcome the traditional reliance on trial-and-error, the project developed an interpretable Artificial Intelligence (AI) framework that moves beyond "black box" models to reveal the specific geometric patterns—such as "unit-cell templates"—that govern a material’s performance. A major breakthrough was the development of a hierarchical design method, which allows a single material to block vibrations across multiple frequency ranges simultaneously by layering patterns at different scales without them interfering with one another. This was further expanded to include irregular, graph-based designs that use spanning tree algorithms to ensure structural connectivity while allowing for customized, direction-dependent properties like stiffness and acoustic impedance. Beyond design, the project addressed the practicalities of real-world production by developing uncertainty quantification techniques that account for manufacturing defects and material variability, reducing the need for expensive physical testing by orders of magnitude. To speed up the discovery process, the team implemented Gaussian Process Regression and other surrogate models that provide accurate performance predictions at a fraction of the traditional computational cost. The AI-generated designs were successfully validated through fabrication of physical samples and wave propagation experiments, confirming their ability to accurately guide or reflect waves as predicted. By contributing these tools and high-quality FAIR benchmark datasets to the wider scientific community, this work provides a scalable foundation for advancing technologies in aerospace vibration control, medical imaging, and noise reduction.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Quantification of the Electrostatic Effect on Redox Potential by Positive Charges in a Catalyst Microenvironment

Charged functional groups in the secondary coordination sphere (SCS) of a heterogeneous nanoparticle or homogeneous electrocatalyst are of growing interest due to enhancements in reactivity that derive from specific interactions that stabilize substrate binding or charged intermediates. At the same time, accurate benchmarking of electrocatalyst systems most often depends on the development of linear free-energy scaling relationships. Furthermore, the thermodynamic axis in those kinetic–thermodynamic correlations is most often obtained by a direct electrochemical measurement of the catalyst redox potential and might be influenced by electrostatic effects of a charged SCS. In this report, we systematically probe positive charges in a SCS and their electrostatic contributions to the electrocatalyst redox potential. A series of 11 iron carbonyl clusters modified with charged and uncharged ligands was probed, and a linear correlation between the ν CO absorption band energy and electrochemical redox potentials is observed except where the SCS is positively charged.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A new method for quantifying 64 Cu in nuclear debris samples

Quantifying 64 Cu in post-detonation nuclear debris samples can provide important diagnostic information regarding the structural materials used within a nuclear device. However, this task is challenging due to the weak gamma emissions associated with the decay of 64 Cu, its short half-life (12.701 h), and the presence of interfering fission product radioisotopes. Large quantities of debris sample are generally needed to accurately quantify 64 Cu, which can be problematic in sample-limited scenarios where other radiometric analyses are required. Herein, we present a new method for the separation of 64 Cu from solutions of mixed fission products and demonstrate the quantification of its activity through use of gas-flow proportional beta counting. Here, the new method was validated through a series of rigorous tests and was shown to improve the detection limit of 64 Cu by over two orders of magnitude, from 2.5 × 10 6 to 1.3 × 10 4 atoms/sample for 100 min measurements.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗