SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Weather Forecasting”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2024

Virtual tower measurements during the American WAKE ExperimeNt (AWAKEN)

Dual-Doppler lidar measurements were made during the American WAKE ExperimeNt to provide height-resolved measurements of wind speed and direction at multiple locations immediately south of the leading row turbines in the King Plains wind farm in Oklahoma. These so-called virtual tower measurements were performed to characterize the inflow into the wind farm and to assess possible upwind blockage effects due to the collective action of the wind farm. The campaign was conducted from 12 November 2022 to 17 October 2023, during which time 14 unique virtual tower locations were sampled with heights ranging from 240 to 490 m AGL. The wind retrieval algorithm provided estimates of the horizontal winds and their uncertainties with a vertical resolution of about 10 m, while also accounting for the tilt of the lidar platform. The virtual tower results are compared to collocated lidar wind profiling data at the A1 site, which was located roughly 2.4 rotor diameters south of the nearest turbine. The wind speed difference between the wind profiler and the virtual tower was found to be quite sensitive to atmospheric stability and wind direction below 250 m AGL. The largest differences were observed for inflow under stable conditions, where the profiler wind speeds were observed to be about 22% lower than the virtual tower near hub height. These results suggest that there are persistent horizontal gradients in the flow upwind of the wind farm which result in biased estimates using standard ground-based lidar wind profiling methods.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bias Correction and Statistical Downscaling of Future Solar Irradiance Projections Using the NSRDB

Assessing renewable energy resources under future climate scenarios has been highlighted to understand potential impacts of future climate change in renewable generation on the power sector. Climate model projection has been recognized by the renewable energy community as a useful data set to analyze the impacts of future climate change on renewable resources. However, future climate projections generated from general circulation models (GCMs) contain inherent biases that need to be corrected for accurate analysis of future projections of climate variables. In addition, the coarse spatiotemporal resolution of GCMs needs to be improved for regional climate studies. In this work, we develop statistical methods to downscale future projections of global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in a computationally efficient way. Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that correct bias of climate projection of GHI and downscale the future GHI projection from daily-scale to hourly-scale. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to calibrate the statistical models and validate the downscaled GHI projections across the contiguous United State (CONUS). Preliminary results show that the statistical approach efficiently downscales climate projections of GHI with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34 % and nRMSE of 46% calculated against NSRDB for CONUS. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to create high-resolution climate data sets for solar energy applications.

analytical models↗

DOE OSTI2025

Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Huge heat anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean in recent years are not yet explained. Strong characteristic patterns in temperatures for upper layers of the ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 in the presence of global warming from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we show that the deep tropics are warming, although sharply modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating in the extratropics near 40°N and 40°–45°S but little heating near 20°N and 25°–30°S. The heating is most clearly manifested in zonal-mean ocean heat content and is evident in sea surface temperatures. The strongest heating is in the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects are small. Estimates are made of the contributions to heating of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric energy transports, surface fluxes of energy, and redistribution of energy by surface winds and ocean currents. The patterns of change are not directly related to TOA radiation but are evident in net surface energy fluxes and inferred ocean heat transports, underscoring their coupled origin. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in ocean jet streams and storm tracks are reflected in surface wind-driven ocean Ekman transports. As well as human-induced climate change, internal natural variability is likely in play. Hence, the atmosphere and ocean currents are systematically redistributing heat from global warming, profoundly affecting local climates. Significance Statement As the climate changes, it has been difficult to discern meaningful patterns. Distinctive patterns of change have occurred in the ocean when examined as zonal averages around latitude bands. Most excess heat from global warming resides in the ocean and, since 2005, has become focused into bands near 40°N and 40°S, with little net warming in the subtropics. The strongest warming is in the Southern Hemisphere, although sea surface temperatures have increased more in the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in the jet stream and storm tracks are primarily responsible along with corresponding changes in ocean currents. These changes are linked through surface exchanges of energy via heat, moisture, and wind stress.

Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospher↗

DOE OSTI2023

Achieving Realistic Runoff in the Western United States with a Land Surface Model Forced by Dynamically Downscaled Meteorology

Abstract In this study, we calibrate a regional climate model’s (RCM) underlying land surface model (LSM). In addition to providing a realistic representation of runoff across the hydroclimatically diverse western United States, this is done to take advantage of the RCM’s ability to physically resolve meteorological forcing data in ungauged regions, and to prepare the calibrated hydrologic model for tight coupling, or the ability to represent land surface–atmosphere interactions, with the RCM. Specifically, we use a 9-km resolution meteorological forcing dataset across the western United States, from the fifth generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) downscaled by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, as an offline forcing for Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP). We detail the steps involved in producing an LSM capable of accurately representing runoff, including physical parameterization selection, parameter calibration, and regionalization to ungauged basins. Based on our model evaluation from 1954 to 2021 for 586 basins with daily natural streamflow, the streamflow bias is reduced from 24.2% to 4.4%, and the median daily Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is improved from 0.12 to 0.36. When validating against basins with monthly natural streamflow data, we obtain a similar reduction in bias and a median monthly NSE improvement from 0.18 to 0.56. In this study, we also discover the optimal setup when using a donor-basin method to regionalize parameters to ungauged basins, which can vary by 0.06 NSE for unique designs of this regionalization method. Significance Statement This study provides useful guidance for improving a land surface model to accurately represent runoff across a spatially extensive and hydroclimatically diverse region (the western United States). The land surface model is updated to represent runoff more accurately at gauged basins, and then additionally updated for basins without observational data using a mathematical approach called the donor-basin method. We make use of a regional climate model’s reanalysis-derived meteorological data and its underlying land surface model to achieve realistic runoff. The calibrated land surface model can thus be tightly coupled in subsequent studies in a manner that should more accurately reflect runoff conditions. Findings from this study will serve as a useful reference for the atmospheric (and hydrologic) modeling communities and their ability to represent large-scale hydrology accurately.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards provision of regularly updated climate data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) is a flagship of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP). CMIP has become a recognised ‘brand’ in climate circles evolving over the last thirty years from a targeted research activity by a small number of climate modelling centres intercomparing their Earth System Model (ESM) simulations to a broad international coordinated research effort (Durack et al, 2025). CMIP is organized as a research activity leveraging funded and in-kind contributions from experts within modelling centres and the broader scientific community supported more recently by a fully-funded International Project Office. Within CMIP, Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) are community-designed to understand past, present and future climate. CMIP data provides a valuable resource for climate research and is routinely used to assess model representation of climate processes and test scientific hypotheses in the context of model uncertainty and (forced and internal) variability as evident from its prolific use in scientific publications1 . The impact relies on enabling infrastructure (most prominently via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF)), which allows sharing of simulation output, provision of the boundary conditions used in each simulation, and definition of the data standards that are essential to facilitating wide use of the data. The impact is supplemented by the wide-ranging scrutiny to which model simulations are subjected. Beyond its use in research, CMIP data is a key resource for communities producing derived climate information from downscaling and impact studies, such as the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX; Gutowski et al., 2016) and the Intersectoral Impacts MIP (ISIMIP; Frieler et al., 2024). Government, academic and commercial entities also increasingly rely on CMIP and its downstream data for climate risk assessments and climate services (for example, Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Bank portal). This means that, although CMIP is a research activity, it increasingly serves a secondary and very relevant role as a provider of climate data – a long-recognised dichotomy (Stevens, 2024). Research and applications have distinct needs, with the former requiring flexibility and generality and the latter consistency. Here we explain how the design of the research activity has been adapted to reduce the burdens imposed by applications and how the research infrastructure might evolve to further enable scientific inquiry. We propose one possible approach to consistently providing model information and projections for applications in the future.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2020

A Study on Modeled Wind Speed Errors Using the U.S. Department of Energy Buoys

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) operates two AXYS WindSentinel lidar buoys for the U.S. Department of Energy’s Wind Energy Technologies Office. The purpose of these buoys is to collect hub-height winds and supporting meteorological and oceanographic information to facilitate the development of wind energy in the U.S. waters. The first deployment for one buoy was off the coast of Virginia from December 2014 to May 2016, and the first deployment for the other buoy was off the coast of New Jersey from November 2015 until February 2017. This report describes recent analysis of data collected during these first two deployments. Specifically, we compare hub-height wind speed estimates using Monin-Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) to the lidar measurements, and examine how those errors are affected by wind direction, atmospheric stability, wind-wave direction differences, and various measures of the wave-state. The comparisons are done using standard similarity functions based on MOST; including the Businger - Dyer, the Beljaars & Holtslag and the Vickers & Mahrt similarity functions. All models produce large errors over the range of atmospheric stabilities that were observed, with the largest errors occurring for stable flows. The Vickers & Mahrt function resulted in the largest overall bias and standard deviation, while Beljaars & Holtslag function gave the smallest bias and standard deviation due to its better performance under stable conditions. The models perform best under unstable conditions, but even in this regime there is a consistent overestimation of the wind speed of between roughly 0 to 1 ms -1 compared to the lidar measurements. We identify specific metocean conditions (i.e. stability and wind and wave directions) at each of the deployment locations that lead to large errors in MOST predictions. Finally, a coupled ocean-atmosphere model framework was investigated to simulate large errors in weather research forecasting (WRF).

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

To explore the integrated effects of ocean and ocean surface wave related physical processes on TC simulations, a set of three model simulations is performed. * In experiment 'A', the event is modeled using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model alone with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at 6-hour intervals. * In experiment ‘AO,’ WRF is coupled with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), enabling variable exchange between atmosphere and ocean, but without considering ocean surface wave-related physical processes. * In experiment ‘AOW’, WRF, FVCOM, and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) exchange variables with each other every hour through the OASIS3-MCT Coupler to allow direct and indirect atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions. * Observational data are also included in this dataset (Dropsonde, HRD-Radar, NDBC_wave). All simulations are initialized at 18:00 UTC on August 19, 2021, within a domain encompassing the western North Atlantic Ocean. The atmospheric domain features a horizontal resolution of 3 km. The ocean domain, which covers a substantial portion of the WRF ocean domain, employs an unstructured triangular grid with resolutions ranging from 3 km near the coast to 9 km in the open ocean, effectively resolving the complex coastline of the U.S. Northeast Coast. Initial and boundary conditions for the atmosphere model are obtained from the 6-hourly 0.25° NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Global Forecast System (GFS; NCEP, 2015) data.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

High-Resolution Regional Atmosphere–Ocean–Wave Coupled Simulations of Hurricane Henri (2021)

To explore the integrated effects of ocean and ocean surface wave related physical processes on tropical cyclone simulations, a set of three model simulations is performed. * In experiment 'A', the event is modeled using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model alone with prescribed Sea Surface Temperature (SST) at 6-hour intervals. * In experiment ‘AO,’ WRF is coupled with the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM), enabling variable exchange between atmosphere and ocean, but without considering ocean surface wave-related physical processes. * In experiment ‘AOW’, WRF, FVCOM, and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) exchange variables with each other every hour through the OASIS3-MCT Coupler to allow direct and indirect atmosphere-ocean-wave interactions. * Observational data are also included in this dataset (Dropsonde, HRD-Radar, NDBC_wave). All simulations are initialized at 18:00 UTC on August 19, 2021, within a domain encompassing the western North Atlantic Ocean. The atmospheric domain features a horizontal resolution of 3 km. The ocean domain, which covers a substantial portion of the WRF ocean domain, employs an unstructured triangular grid with resolutions ranging from 3 km near the coast to 9 km in the open ocean, effectively resolving the complex coastline of the U.S. Northeast Coast. Initial and boundary conditions for the atmosphere model are obtained from the 6-hourly 0.25° NCEP (National Centers for Environmental Prediction) Global Forecast System (GFS; NCEP, 2015) data. These CSV files are derived from the NetCDF files in the c0 dataset. Unlike the original format, where geographic coordinates were stored in a separate file, each CSV now embeds the corresponding latitude and longitude values alongside the measured or simulated variables.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aerosol-induced closure of marine cloud cells: enhanced effects in the presence of precipitation

Abstract. The Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) version 4.3 model is configured within a Lagrangian framework to quantify the impact of aerosols on evolving cloud fields. Kilometer-scale simulations utilizing meteorological boundary conditions are based on 10 case study days offering diverse meteorology during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA). Measurements from aircraft, the ground-based Atmosphere Radiation Measurement (ARM) site at Graciosa Island in the Azores, and A-Train and geostationary satellites are utilized for validation, demonstrating good agreement with the WRF-simulated cloud and aerosol properties. Higher aerosol concentration leads to suppressed drizzle and increased cloud water content in all case study days. These changes lead to larger radiative cooling rates at cloud top, enhanced vertical velocity variance, and increased vertical and horizontal wind speed near the base of the lower-tropospheric inversion. As a result, marine cloud cell area expands, narrowing the gap between shallow clouds and increasing cloud optical thickness, liquid water content, and the top-of-atmosphere outgoing shortwave flux. While similar aerosol effects are observed in lightly to non-raining clouds, they tend to be smaller by comparison. These simulations show a relationship between cloud cell area expansion and the radiative adjustments caused by liquid water path and cloud fraction changes. The adjustments are positive and scale as 74 % and 51 %, respectively, relative to the Twomey effect. While higher-resolution large-eddy simulations may provide improved representation of cloud-top mixing processes, these results emphasize the importance of addressing mesoscale cloud-state transitions in the quantification of aerosol radiative forcing that cannot be attained from traditional climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Adiabatic and radiative cooling are both important causes of aerosol activation in simulated fog events in Europe

Aerosol–fog interactions affect the visibility in, and life cycle of, fog and are difficult to represent in weather and climate models. Here we explore processes that impact the simulation of fog droplet number concentrations (N d ) at sub-kilometer scale horizontal grid resolutions in the UK Met Office Unified Model. We modify the parameterization of aerosol activation to include droplet activation by radiative cooling in addition to adiabatic cooling and determine the relative importance of the two cooling mechanisms. We further test the sensitivity of simulated N d to: (a) interception of droplets by trees and buildings, (b) overestimation of updrafts in temperature inversions (which leads to artificially high N d values), and (c) potential mechanisms for droplet deactivation due to downward fluctuations in supersaturation. We evaluate our model against observations from the ParisFog and LANFEX field campaigns, building on evaluation described in the companion paper. Including radiative cooling in the activation mechanism improves how accurately we represent the liquid water path and the vertical structure of the fog in our LANFEX case study. However, with radiative cooling, the N d are overestimated for most of the ParisFog cases and for the LANFEX case. The time-averaged overestimate exceeds a factor of three (the normalized mean bias factor exceeds 2.0) in 4 out of 11 ParisFog cases. Our sensitivity studies demonstrate how these overestimates can be mitigated. Assuming the overestimate affects both radiative and adiabatic cooling, we find that although radiative cooling is more often the dominant source, both cooling sources can sometimes dominate activation.

Ghosh, Pratapaditya [Carnegie Mellon University, P↗

DOE OSTI2020

Sensitivity of aerosol optical properties to the aerosol size distribution over central Europe and the Mediterranean Basin using the WRF-Chem v.3.9.1.1 coupled model

The size distribution of atmospheric aerosols plays a key role for understanding and quantifying the uncertainties related to aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions. These interactions ultimately depend on the size distribution through optical properties (such as aerosol optical depth, AOD) or cloud microphysical properties. Hence, the main objective of this contribution is to disentangle the impact of the representation of aerosol size distribution on aerosol optical properties over central Europe, particularly over the Mediterranean Basin, during a summertime aerosol episode. To fulfill this objective, a sensitivity test has been conducted using the coupled chemistry–meteorology model WRF-Chem (Weather Research Forecast model coupled with Chemistry). The test modified the parameters defining a lognormal size distribution (geometric diameter and standard deviation) by 10 %, 20 %, and 50 %. Results reveal that the reduction in the standard deviation of the accumulation mode leads to the largest impacts on AOD due to a transfer of particles from the accumulation mode to the coarse mode. A reduction in the geometric diameter of the accumulation mode also has an influence on AOD representation since particles in this mode are assumed to be smaller. In addition, an increase in the geometric diameter of the coarse mode produces a redistribution through the total size distribution by relocating particles from the finer modes to the coarse.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Applying double cropping and interactive irrigation in the North China Plain using WRF4.5

Abstract. Irrigated cultivation exerts a significant influence on the local climate and the hydrological cycle. The North China Plain (NCP) is known for its intricate agricultural system, marked by expansive cropland, high productivity, compact rotation, a semi-arid climate, and intensive irrigation practices. As a result, there has been considerable attention on the potential impact of this intensive irrigated agriculture on the local climate. However, studying the irrigation impact in this region has been challenging due to the lack of an accurate simulation of crop phenology and irrigation practices within the climate model. By incorporating double cropping with interactive irrigation, our study extends the capabilities of the Weather Research Forecast (WRF) model, which has previously demonstrated commendable performance in simulating single-cropping scenarios. This allows for two-way feedback between irrigated crops and climate, further enabling the inclusion of irrigation feedback from both ground and vegetation perspectives. The improved crop modeling system shows significant enhancement in capturing vegetation and irrigation patterns, which is evidenced by its ability to identify crop stages, estimate field biomass, predict crop yield, and project monthly leaf area index. The improved simulation of large-scale irrigated crops in the NCP can further enhance our understanding of the intricate relationship between agricultural development and climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

CMIP7 data request: impacts and adaptation priorities and opportunities

The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 7 (CMIP7) undertook an extensive process to gather community input and refine data requests related to impacts and adaptation applications of Earth System Model (ESM) outputs. The Impacts and Adaptation (I&A) Data Request Team worked with CMIP7 leadership to distribute an open solicitation across many communities that use climate model outputs requesting inputs for new and existing variables, the most applicable temporal characteristics, and groupings of variables that together allow for specific application opportunities. This input was then collated and translated into CMIP7 standard templates for inclusion in the broader data request, leading to 13 I&A data request opportunities, 60 variable groups and 539 unique variables sought by vulnerability, impacts, adaptation, and climate services user communities. Here, we describe these opportunities and variable groups, as well as new insights into how ESM groups can prioritize outputs that set off a chain of further analyses, ultimately informing decisions impacting society and natural systems. These include an emphasis on high-resolution outputs to allow further modeling of climate impacts at regional and local scales, improved representation of extreme weather events, enhanced accuracy of downscaling and bias-adjustment techniques, and support for more detailed assessments for decision-making in adaptation and mitigation strategies. There is also broad interest in more extensive provisioning of two-dimensional variables at the Earth's surface, prioritizing experiments that enhance our understanding of both the recent past and future scenarios, and providing outputs that allow further downscaling and bias adjustment. We emphasize that variable groups are the fundamental level at which to engage with the I&A data request, matching the scale of input and the way output provision enables specific I&A applications. Given resource constraints, we applaud CMIP7 efforts to foster strong engagement and communication between ESM groups and the I&A team to build consensus around prudent compromises in priority variables, temporal resolutions, simulation experiments, time subsets, and ensemble members.

Ruane, Alex C. [NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studi↗

DOE OSTI2022

Holographic Cloud Particle Imager (HCPI)

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Probabilistic Forecast of All-Sky Solar Radiation Using Enhanced WRF-Solar: Preprint

This study presents enhancements of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) to provide probabilistic forecasts of solar radiation. Our approach builds ensemble WRF-Solar runs by introducing stochastic perturbations of variables that produce the largest uncertainties in predicting surface irradiance and clouds. The key variables are identified using tangent linear sensitivity analysis of six physics packages responsible for all-sky irradiance variability. An optimal strategy to stochastically perturb the selected variables is developed and applied to WRF-Solar to generate ensemble members for day-ahead solar prediction. The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is used to validate the ensemble forecast at arbitrary locations on the model grid. Preliminary results indicate that the proposed technique can potentially produce WRF-Solar ensembles providing reliable information of solar prediction uncertainty. This study describes the implemented methodology and initial results as well as future research to improve ensemble-based probabilistic forecasts with WRF-Solar.

all-sky↗

DOE OSTI2025

ERF: Energy Research and Forecasting Model

High performance computing (HPC) architectures have undergone rapid development in recent years. As a result, established software suites face an ever increasing challenge to remain performant on and portable across modern systems. Many of the widely adopted atmospheric modeling codes cannot fully (or in some cases, at all) leverage the acceleration provided by General-Purpose Graphics Processing Units, leaving users of those codes constrained to increasingly limited HPC resources. Energy Research and Forecasting (ERF) is a regional atmospheric modeling code that leverages the latest HPC architectures, whether composed of only Central Processing Units (CPUs) or incorporating GPUs. ERF contains many of the standard discretizations and basic features needed to model general atmospheric dynamics. The modular design of ERF provides a flexible platform for exploring different physics parameterizations and numerical strategies. ERF is built on a state-of-the-art, well-supported, software framework (AMReX) that provides a performance portable interface and ensures ERF's long-term sustainability on next generation computing systems. This paper details the numerical methodology of ERF, presents results for a series of verification/validation cases, and documents ERF's performance on current HPC systems. The roughly 5× speed up of ERF (using GPUs) over Weather Research and Forecasting (CPUs only) for a 3D squall line test case highlights the significance of leveraging GPU acceleration.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Integration of a physics-based direct normal irradiance ($\mathrm{DNI}$) model to enhance the National Solar Radiation Database ($\mathrm{NSRDB}$)

The National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) is an extensively used dataset that furnishes satellite-retrieved solar resource data across the United States and an expanding list of other countries. Although the NSRDB uses a physical model to compute global horizontal irradiance (GHI), it currently employs an empirical approach based on surface observations to estimate cloudy-sky direct normal irradiance (DNI). Recently, a new physics-based approach, known as the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications with DNI (FARMS-DNI), was developed to improve DNI forecasting. FARMS-DNI integrates direct and scattered solar radiances within the circumsolar region, resulting in improved day-ahead forecasting of DNI by incorporating it into the Weather Research and Forecasting model with Solar extensions (WRF-Solar). This study incorporates FARMS-DNI into the NSRDB algorithm to produce high-spatiotemporal-resolution DNI data from satellite data. The accuracy of the NSRDB based on FARMS-DNI is analyzed using surface observations from 19 sites situated within the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Surface Radiation Budget (SURFRAD) and Solar Radiation (SOLRAD) networks, the University of Oregon (UO) network, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) network, and at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). The results demonstrate that FARMS-DNI reduces the significant overestimation of DNI in the conventional NSRDB at all surface sites, particularly in cloud overcast conditions classified using both satellite retrievals and surface observations. Consequently, this new model can effectively improve the overall accuracy of the NSRDB. The results also suggest that further improvement of DNI estimates at individual time steps, however, requires advanced satellite techniques and precise identification of clouds and retrieval of cloud properties.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗