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At least 271 records · Page 15

The Pursuit of K: Reflections on the Current State-of-the-Art in Stress Intensity Factor Solutions for Practical Aerospace Applications

The elastic stress intensity factor (SIF, commonly denoted as K) is the foundation of practical fracture mechanics (FM) analysis for aircraft structures. This single parameter describes the first-order effects of stress magnitude and distribution as well as the geometry of both structure/component and crack. Hence, the calculation of K is often the most significant step in fatigue analysis based on FM. This presentation will provide several reflections on the current state-of-the-art in SIF solution methods used for practical aerospace applications, including a brief historical perspective, descriptions of some recent and ongoing advances, and comments on some remaining challenges. Newman and Raju made significant early contributions to practical structural analysis by developing closed-form SIF equations for surface and corner cracks in simplified geometries, often based on empirical fits of finite element (FE) solutions. Those solutions (and others like them) were sometimes revised as new analyses were conducted or limitations discovered. The foundational solutions have exhibited striking longevity, despite the relatively "coarse" FE models employed many decades ago. However, in recent years, the accumulation of different generations of solutions for the same nominal geometry has led to some confusion (which solution is correct?), and steady increases in computational capabilities have facilitated the discovery of inaccuracies in some (not all!) of the legacy solutions. Some examples of problems and solutions are presented and discussed, including the challenge of maintaining consistency with legacy design applications. As computational power has increased, the prospect of calculating large numbers of SIF solutions for specific complex geometries with advanced numerical methods has grown more attractive. Fawaz and Andersson, for example, have been generating literally millions of new SIF solutions for different combinations of multiple cracks under simplified loading schemes using p-version FE methods. These data are invaluable, but questions remain about their practical use, because the tabular databases of key results needed to support practical life analysis can occupy gigabytes of storage for only a few classes of geometries. The prospect of using such advanced numerical methods to calculate in real time only those K solutions actually needed to support a specific crack growth analysis is also tempting, but the stark reality is that the computational cost is still so high that the approach is not practical except for specific, critical application problems. Some thoughts are offered about alternative paradigms. Compounding approaches are some of the earliest building blocks of SIF development for more complex geometries. These approaches are especially attractive because of their very low computational cost and their conceptual robustness; they are, in some ways, an intriguing contrast and complement to the brute-force numerical methods. In recent years, researchers at NRC-Canada have published remarkable results showing how compounding approaches can be used to generate accurate solutions for very difficult problems. Examples are provided of some successes--and some limitations--using this approach. These closed-form, tabulated numerical, and compounding approaches have typically been used for simple remote loading with simple load paths to the crack. However, many significant cracks occur in complex stress gradient fields. This is a job for weight function (WF) methods, where the arbitrary stress distribution on the crack plane in the corresponding uncracked body (typically determined using FE methods) is used to determine K. Several significant recent advances in WF methods and solutions are highlighted here. Fueled by advanced 3D numerical methods, many new solutions have been generated for classic geometries such as surface and corner cracks with wide ranges of geometrical validity. A new WF formulation has also be developed for part-through cracks considering the arbitrary stress gradients in all directions in the crack plane (so-called bivariant solutions). Basic WF methods have recently been combined with analytical expressions for crack plane stresses to develop a large family of accurate SIF solutions for corner, surface, and through cracks at internal or external notches with very wide ranges of shapes, sizes, acuities, and offsets. Finally, WF solutions are much faster than FE or boundary element solutions, but can still be much slower than simple closed-form solutions, especially for bivariant solutions that can require 2D numerical integration. Novel pre-integration and dynamic tabular methods have been developed that substantially increase the speed of these advanced WF solutions. The practical utility of advanced SIF methods, including both WF and direct numerical methods, is greatly enhanced if the FM life analysis can be directly and efficiently linked with digital models of the actual structure or component (e.g., FE models for stress analysis). Two recent advances of this type will be described. One approach directly interfaces the FM life analysis with the FE model of the uncracked component (including stress results). Through a powerful graphical user interface, simplified FM life models can be constructed (and visualized) directly on the component model, with the computer collecting the geometry and stress gradient information needed for the life calculation. An even more powerful paradigm uses expert logic to automatically build an optimum simple fracture model at any and every desired location in the component model, perform the life calculation, and even generate fatigue crack growth life contour maps, all with minimal user intervention. This paradigm has also been extended to the automatic calculation of fracture risk, considering uncertainty or variability in key input parameters such as initial crack size or location. Another new integrated approach links the engineering life analysis, the component model, and a 3D numerical fracture analysis built with the same component model to generate a table of SIF values at a specific location that can then be employed efficiently to perform the life calculation. Some attention must be given to verification and validation (V&V) issues and challenges: how good are these SIF solutions, how good is good enough, and does anyone believe the life answer? It is important to think critically about the different sources of error or uncertainty and to perform V&V in a hierarchal, building-block manner. Some accuracy issues for SIF solutions, for example, may actually involve independent material behavior issues, such as constraint loss effects for crack fronts near component surfaces, and can be a source of confusion. Recommendations are proposed for improved V&V approaches. This presentation will briefly but critically survey the range of issues and advances mentioned above, with a particular view towards assembling an integrated approach that combines different methods to create practical tools for real-world design and analysis problems. Examples will be selectively drawn from the recent literature, from recent enhancements in the NASGRO and DARWIN computer codes, and from previously unpublished research

CraigMcClung, R.↗

Online Tools for Uncovering Data Quality (DQ) Issues in Satellite-Based Global Precipitation Products

Data quality (DQ) has many attributes or facets (i.e., errors, biases, systematic differences, uncertainties, benchmark, false trends, false alarm ratio, etc.)Sources can be complicated (measurements, environmental conditions, surface types, algorithms, etc.) and difficult to be identified especially for multi-sensor and multi-satellite products with bias correction (TMPA, IMERG, etc.) How to obtain DQ info fast and easily, especially quantified info in ROI Existing parameters (random error), literature, DIY, etc.How to apply the knowledge in research and applications.Here, we focus on online systems for integration of products and parameters, visualization and analysis as well as investigation and extraction of DQ information.

precipitation↗

Strategic Time-Based Metering that Assures Separation for Integrated Operations in a Terminal Airspace

This paper reports an algorithm for strategic time-based metering of air traffic arriving and departing from a large ( tens of nautical miles) area (called here, the commitment region) around an airport or metroplex. The algorithm assures separation continuously in time and avoids a dictation of intent to an aircraft crew. This is accomplished by allowing an aircraft (specifically, its Flight Management System) to specify, and commit to, an intended route and ground speed profile along that route within the commitment region, and by supplying the time at which to enter the region to the aircraft crew. The airspace that comprises the commitment region need not be confined to the terminal airspace and can include some of the enroute space: the size and shape of the commitment region are parameters in the algorithm. An exact formula for including speed profile uncertainty in the algorithm is provided. The algorithm is applied to a number of data sets recorded during actual air traffic operations in the Southern California TRACON in July of 2014 and the Atlanta TRACON in November and December of 2013. The results of the numerical simulations indicate that the algorithm succeeds at keeping the aircraft separated, but introduces, in its current implementation, more separation than that observed in actual operations. This excess separation can be reduced by modeling more accurately the Visual Flight Rules separation practices, a direction for future research.

air traffic management↗

The visual surface brightness relation and the absolute magnitudes of RR Lyrae stars. II - RR Lyrae and X Arietis

The theoretical surface brightness relation for RR Lyrae stars has been combined with new VR photometry to determine distances, radii, and absolute magnitudes for X Arietis and RR Lyrae. For X Arietis, a pulsational variation in the radius from 5.06 solar radii to 5.96 solar radii, a distance of 495 + or - 50 pc, and an intensity mean absolute magnitude of +0.59 + or - 0.25 is obtained. The corresponding quantities for RR Lyrae are 4.81-5.67 solar radii, 263 + or - 39 pc, and an intensity mean absolute magnitude of +0.61 + or - 0.35. The larger errors quoted for RR Lyrae are due to uncertainties arising from the Blazhko effect. Results are discussed in the context of the dependence of RR Lyrae absolute magnitudes on metal abundance.

Manduca, A.↗

Development and Assessment of the SMAP Enhanced Passive Soil Moisture Product

Launched in January 2015, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) observatory was designed to provide frequent global mapping of high-resolution soil moisture and freeze-thaw state every two to three days using a radar and a radiometer operating at L-band frequencies. Despite a hardware mishap that rendered the radar inoperable shortly after launch, the radiometer continues to operate nominally, returning more than two years of science data that have helped to improve existing hydrological applications and foster new ones.Beginning in late 2016 the SMAP project launched a suite of new data products with the objective of recovering some high-resolution observation capability loss resulting from the radar malfunction. Among these new data products are the SMAP Enhanced Passive Soil Moisture Product that was released in December 2016, followed by the SMAPSentinel-1 Active-Passive Soil Moisture Product in April 2017.This article covers the development and assessment of the SMAP Level 2 Enhanced Passive Soil Moisture Product (L2_SM_P_E). The product distinguishes itself from the current SMAP Level 2 Passive Soil Moisture Product (L2_SM_P) in that the soil moisture retrieval is posted on a 9 km grid instead of a 36 km grid. This is made possible by first applying the Backus-Gilbert optimal interpolation technique to the antenna temperature (TA) data in the original SMAP Level 1B Brightness Temperature Product to take advantage of the overlapped radiometer footprints on orbit. The resulting interpolated TA data then go through various correctioncalibration procedures to become the SMAP Level 1C Enhanced Brightness Temperature Product (L1C_TB_E). The L1C_TB_E product, posted on a 9 km grid, is then used as the primary input to the current operational SMAP baseline soil moisture retrieval algorithm to produce L2_SM_P_E as the final output. Images of the new product reveal enhanced visual features that are not apparent in the standard product. Based on in situ data from core validation sites and sparse networks representing different seasons and biomes all over the world, comparisons between L2_SM_P_E and in situ data were performed for the duration of April 1, 2015 October 30, 2016. It was found that the performance of the enhanced 9 km L2_SM_P_E is equivalent to that of the standard 36 km L2_SM_P, attaining a retrieval uncertainty below 0.040 m(exp 3)/m(exp 3) unbiased root-mean-square error (ubRMSE) and a correlation coefficient above 0.800. This assessment also affirmed that the Single Channel Algorithm using the V-polarized TB channel (SCA-V) delivered the best retrieval performance among the various algorithms implemented for L2_SM_P_E, a result similar to a previous assessment for L2_SM_P.

Enhanced↗

Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment of Distributed Energy Resources via Scenario-Based AC Optimal Power Flow

As electric grids decarbonize and distributed energy resources (DERs) become increasingly prevalent, interconnection assessments must evolve to reflect operational variability and control flexibility. This paper highlights key modeling limitations observed in practice and reviews approaches for modeling uncertainty. It then introduces a Probabilistic Deliverability Assessment (PDA) framework designed to complement and extend existing procedures. The framework integrates scenario-based AC optimal power flow (AC OPF), corrective dispatch, and optional multi-temporal constraints. Together, these form a structured methodology for quantifying DER utilization, deliverability, and reliability under uncertainty in load, generation, and topology. Outputs include interpretable metrics with confidence intervals that inform siting decisions and evaluate compliance with reliability thresholds across sampled operating conditions. A case study on Puerto Rico’s publicly available bulk power system model demonstrates the framework’s application using minimal input data, consistent with current interconnection practice. Across staged fossil generation retirements, the PDA identifies high-value DER sites and regions requiring additional reactive power support. Results are presented through mean dispatch signals, reliability metrics, and geospatial visualizations, demonstrating how the framework provides transparent, data-driven siting recommendations. The framework’s modular design supports incremental adoption within existing workflows, encouraging broader use of AC OPF in interconnection and planning contexts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

A new interpretation of luminous blue stars

A major revision of current theoretical ideas about the brightest blue stars must be made if Carson's (1976) radiative opacities are adopted in stellar models. Unlike earlier opacities, these exhibit a large 'bump' due to CNO ionization, which leads to very strong central condensation, convective instability, and pulsational instability in hot diffuse stellar envelopes. Despite a number of theoretical uncertainties, the new picture of the structure of very luminous stars is reasonably successful in accounting for a variety of previously unexplained observations. The stellar models for the phase of core hydrogen burning predict large radii and rather cool effective temperatures for O stars and a spreading out of the main-sequence band in the H-R diagram toward luminous cool supergiants for masses higher than about 20 solar masses. In massive X-ray binary systems, circular orbits and supergiant-like visual companions are expected to be quite common. Long-period variability is predicted to exist for massive blue supergiants of luminosity class Ia. The models for helium stars predict large radii and rather cool effective temperatures for Wolf-Rayet stars, as well as multimodal pulsational instability and, possibly, surface turbulence for these stars.

Stothers, R.↗

Three-Dimensional Morphological Analysis of ALH84001 Magnetite Using Electron Tomography

We report here the crystal morphologies of MV-1 and ALH84001 magnetites as calculated by back-projection using electron tomography. In the present study, we used a 300 keV TEM with a field emission gun (Tecnai F-30 from FEI Inc.), equipped with a 2048 x 2048 pixel CCD camera from Gatan Inc. to image magnetite crystals over tilt ranges of approx. +/- 72 deg in 2 deg tilt intervals. The images were aligned for back-projection, either manually, or through the use of fiducial 5 nm Au spheres affixed to the specimen prior to microscopy. Three-dimensional (3-D) reconstructions were computed using weighted back-projection of the tilted views. The tomograms were viewed and analyzed as a series of slices 1.0 nm thick, taken parallel to the specimen-supporting grid, using the IMOD software package. The shape of each magnetite crystal was determined by defining the external contour of a given magnetite in each slice and assembling a stack of these contours in 3-D. To aid in visualization, the stacked contour array was reduced to an optimal mesh by Delaunay triangulation. The surface normal to each of the triangles in the mesh was calculated and the triangle faces colored according to the orientation of that surface normal relative to the principal crystallographic axis of magnetite. Green surfaces correspond to {111} orientations, blue surfaces to {100} orientations, and red surfaces to {110} orientations. Triangles whose surface normal did not correspond to one of the principal axes were colored gray. Within the experimental and numerical uncertainties of the deconvolution, the tomographic reconstruction of both MV-1 and ALH84001 magnetites are equivalent and correspond to a truncated hexa-octahedral morphology.

Thomas-Keprta, Kathie L.↗

A Precise Physical Orbit For The M-Dwarf Binary Gliese 268

We report high-precision interferometric and radial velocity (RV) observations of the M-dwarf binary Gl 268. Combining measurements conducted using the IOTA interferometer and the ELODIE and Harvard Center for Astrophysics RV instruments leads to a mass of 0.22596 plus-minus 0.00084 Mass compared to the sun for component A and 0.19230 plus-minus 0.00071 Mass compared to the sun for component B. The system parallax as determined by these observations is 0.1560 plus-minus 0.0030 arcsec - a measurement with 1.9% uncertainty in excellent agreement with Hipparcos (0.1572 plus-minus 0.0033). The absolute H-band magnitudes of the component stars are not well constrained by these measurements; however, we can place an approximate upper limit of 7.95 and 8.1 for Gl 268A and B, respectively.We test these physical parameters against the predictions of theoretical models that combine stellar evolution with high fidelity, non-gray atmospheric models. Measured and predicted values are compatible within 2sigma. These results are among the most precise masses measured for visual binaries and compete with the best adaptive optics and eclipsing binary results.

Barry, R. K.↗

The effect of modifying response and performance feedback parameters on the CNV in humans

The effect on the CNV of sustained and delayed motor response with the dominant and nondominant hand in the presence and absence of visual performance feedback, was studied in 15 male adults. Monopolar scalp recordings were obtained at Fz, Cz, Pz, and bilaterally over the motor hand area. Results indicated that the magnitude of the CNV was greater in the delayed than sustained response task, greater in the presence than absence of feedback, and greater over the motor hand area contralateral to movement. Frontal CNV habituated in the sustained, but not the delayed response task, suggested that frontal negative variations in the former case signify an orienting response to novelty or uncertainty. The absence of habituation in the delay condition was interpreted in terms of the motor inhibitory function of frontal association cortex. Performance feedback appeared to enhance CNV indirectly by increasing the motivation of subjects. A multiprocess conception of CNV was proposed in which vortex-negative slow potentials reflect a multiplicity of psychophysiological processes occurring at a variety of cortical and subcortical locations in the brain preparatory to a motor or mental action.

Otto, D. A.↗

Advanced Capabilities for Wind Tunnel Testing in the 21st Century

Wind tunnel testing methods and test technologies for the 21st century using advanced capabilities are presented. These capabilities are necessary to capture more accurate and high quality test results by eliminating the uncertainties in testing and to facilitate verification of computational tools for design. This paper discusses near term developments underway in ground testing capabilities, which will enhance the quality of information of both the test article and airstream flow details. Also discussed is a selection of new capability investments that have been made to accommodate such developments. Examples include advanced experimental methods for measuring the test gas itself; using efficient experiment methodologies, including quality assurance strategies within the test; and increasing test result information density by using extensive optical visualization together with computed flow field results. These points could be made for both major investments in existing tunnel capabilities or for entirely new capabilities.

Kegelman, Jerome T.↗

Updated status of the ART neutronic fast reactor tools integration to the NEAMS Workbench

The Workbench initiative was launched in FY-2017 within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) Integration Product Line to facilitate the transition from conventional tools to high-fidelity tools. The Workbench provides a common user interface for model creation, real-time validation, execution, output processing, and visualization for integrated codes. The integration of the Argonne Reactor Computation (ARC) suite of codes into the NEAMS Workbench was initiated in FY-2017. The ARC codes contain both legacy codes like DIF3D and REBUS-3 that were developed with over 30 years of experience, and newer NEAMS additions like MC 2 -3 and PERSENT. The ARC integration into the NEAMS Workbench interface relies on the PyARC module which handles the pre- and post-processing of the native ARC codes input, and the runtime environment. The PyARC module together with the NEAMS Workbench interface are both released under Open Source Software licenses. This report describes the ARC capabilities available with the Workbench at the end of FY-2018, and a tutorial is provided together with the automatically-generated code documentation. Integrating the ARC codes into the Workbench benefits directly the Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) Campaign by providing a set of controlled, maintained and validated scripts to generate ARC inputs, which promotes best practices, reduces the learning curve, and facilitates project collaboration. The second benefit from this project is to improve the user experience with the ARC codes: the Workbench interface provides assistance for building an input through auto-completion, real-time validation, access to templates, and visualization. Finally, the ARC integration into the NEAMS Workbench enables new modeling capabilities, those will be extremely useful for advanced reactor design and analyses. The PyARC module facilitates and automatizes complex calculations and workflows for reactor analysis enabling geometrical perturbations, cross-section update through depletion, etc. The Dakota/PyARC coupling in the Workbench was also demonstrated to enable mathematical optimization and sensitivity analysis/uncertainty quantification (SA/UQ) techniques with ARC neutronic simulations. For demonstration purposes, the ARC codes were used through the Workbench for solving the Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor Uncertainty Analysis in Modelling (SFR-UAM) benchmark problems. The ARC codes are currently used at ANL through the Workbench by nuclear engineers for SFR core design analyses. Future efforts will focus on continuously adding modeling capabilities available with the ARC codes, training new users to continue building some experience, and on integrating high-fidelity codes such as PROTEUS into the Workbench.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Turbulence Model Validation Through Joint Experimental /Computational Studies of Separated Flow Over A Three-Dimensional Tapered Bump: Part I - Experimental Investigation

The results of a three-year experimental campaign aimed at comprehensively documenting the separated flow over a three-dimensional bump are presented with the purpose of generating a benchmark experimental database useful in validating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) flow simulations. The bump model geometry was designed to provide well-defined and repeatable smooth-body flow separation conditions that were suitable for both experiments and simulations. The bump had a Gaussian streamwise profile with a constant height equal to 8.5% of its width over the central 60% of the test section width. The remaining 40% were outboard spanwise portions that gradually taper to zero using an error function profile to minimize side-wall boundary layer effects. The model was immersed in a turbulent boundary layer that was developed on a suspended flat plate in the Notre Dame Mach 0.6 Wind Tunnel. In order to document the effect of the incoming boundary layer thickness on the flow separation, the bump model could be located at two streamwise positions. The mean velocity and turbulence intensity of the wind tunnel freestream flow field and approaching turbulent boundary layer were fully documented. The measurements of the flow separation region included surface visualization, wall shear stress using oil-film interferometry, mean and dynamic surface pressure, and planar and stereoscopic particle image velocimetry. The experiments were conducted over a range of Mach numbers from 0.05 to 0.2 corresponding to a range of Reynolds numbers based on the test section spanwise dimension (0.914m) of 1.0 × 10 6 ≤ Re L = U ∞ L/ν ≤ 4.0 × 10 6 . The bulk of the results are presented for the higher Mach number conditions of 0.1 and 0.2 with Re L = 2.0 × 10 6 and 4.0 × 10 6 , respectively. Extensive uncertainty analysis of the data was performed. The data is archived in the NASA Langley Turbulence Modeling Resource website at https://turbmodels.larc.nasa.gov/Other_exp_Data/speedbump_sep_exp.html. In addition to the experiments, a computational effort was made in parallel by the CFD group at Boeing Research & Technology highlighting the usefulness of the data set, which is outlined in the accompanying CFD report.

Flow separation↗

Quantifying Properties for a Mechanistic, Predictive Understanding of Aqueous Impact on Aging of Medium and Low Voltage AC and DC Cabling in Nuclear Power Plants

To address the gap in knowledge in understanding degradation in relevant service conditions, this project aimed to develop a mechanistic, predictive model of medium and low voltage cable failure based on the primary environmental degradation parameters of aqueous immersion time, temperature, and the oxidation extent. To do so, we took a two-fold approach toward evaluating degradation as related to the aqueous condition. First, we evaluated the chemical, mechanical, and electrical properties of polymers that comprise the cabling insulation under varied aqueous conditions at different temperatures. Secondly, we evaluated the performance of insulation materials under similar accelerated aging conditions in addition to the dielectric breakdown of the cabling under submersion conditions. Thermal oxidation and immersion of LDPE thin films were done using a Parr vessel and the extent of oxidation was monitored using the carbonyl index from ATR-FTIR spectrum, a ratio quantifying the carbonyl functionality produced on the LDPE film surface. Increasing the temperature, oxidation time, and oxygen pressure increased the water-vapor permeability and the carbonyl content. Thermogravimetric analysis of the films confirmed that there is indeed an initial weight loss of the smaller molecular weight molecules and volatiles. At higher temperatures, there is a secondary mass loss. Up to 70°C, the mass loss curves were similar until 80°C, when the aged films decreased at a much greater rate with respect to increasing temperature. This was seen in the 10, 50, 90% weight loss temperatures. The mechanical properties of sheet PP and HDPE as well as injection molded LDPE, HDPE, HDPP dog bones were plotted with respect to the time spent in the Parr vessel during thermal oxidation. For the sheet PP and HDPE, the UTS and the modulus of elasticity decreased while the elongation increased. The injection-molded LDPE, HDPE, and HDPP dog bones experienced a similar trend where the changes in the properties were within experimental uncertainty. This analysis of LDPE in dry and immersive oxygen-rich environments is an important baseline for future experiments looking at other degradation mechanisms. A predictive aging model for low-density polyethylene insulative cable housings was developed. This model revealed a combination of physical and chemical processes which lead to an increase in permeability and a decrease in strength of the insulator. In creating this predictive model, a gap of knowledge in the literature was revealed in two areas: understanding how the crystallinity of a polymer changes with time and visualizing the predicted pores formed through the insulator which leads to failure. Developing and using an adapted ATR-FTIR method, crystallinity was monitored and compared to bulk crystallinity found via DSC. Inhomogeneity in crystallinity changes were observed but the FTIR method but was found to be less reliable. Pore visualization was found utilizing electrical impedance spectroscopy saturated aged polyethylene films with synthesized citrate-capped gold nanoparticles, and chloroauric acid precursor. results indicate a decreasing impedance of the polyethylene films caused by the transport of ions through the film. SEM imaging was then performed for elemental analysis of the films and counter electrodes for the presence of ions. Chloride and gold ions were detected; however, no nanoparticles were found. This gives an estimated pore size of at least 0.3 nm through the aged film. Cyclic submergence of polyethylene and polypropylene in aqueous solutions of copper sulfate and Harrison’s solution were examined. It was discovered that aging in these mixed conditions and at 90°C did cause a small, yet significant increase to tensile strength for both unaged polyethylene and polypropylene. The PE and PP in cycled and submerged conditions did not have tensile strengths significantly different from dry-aged after 16 weeks. For both solutions, it was determined that capacitance increases with both water tree depth and cable temperature and is relatively independent of changing water tree AR. As for resistance, there is no apparent change between depth percentages of 10 and 80 for both solutions. This is because the water tree has not yet entered the conductor and thus there is no shorting current flowing through the tree yet. Between 80 and 100% water tree depth, it is observed that for both solutions there is a rapid decrease in resistance because the tree is now impacting the conductor shield and allowing shorting current to flow through it. The relationship between resistance and temperature was found to be inversed. As temperature increases, resistance decreases for both water tree solutions with distilled water having the most apparent difference across the range of temperatures simulated. With regards to water tree AR, resistance was found to be relatively independent at depth percentages of 10, 50, and 70, but there was some relationship at 100% depth for both solutions. At this depth, as water tree AR increased, resistance was found to also increase. Through the examination of voltage and electric field distribution plots, it was confirmed for EPR cables that increasing water tree depth leads to increasing distortion. The increase in shorting current at 100% depth for aqueous copper sulfate compared to distilled water was also visualized. Lastly, the relationship between shorting current and temperature for narrow water trees was visualized and validated using the distribution plots. This study has led to a better understanding of the effect of cable temperature, water tree solution, and geometry of the tree region on cable degradation. Furthermore, this study has documented simulation results of water tree degradation in EPR MV cables, which had been previously lacking in information. Future work in this area will add frequency into the mix and examine what effect it has on the rate of cable degradation as a result of water treeing. To compliment the work being carried by UMD on different polymer chemistries, harvested medium voltage (MV) cables were selected for accelerated aging study at ORNL. These medium voltage cables are representative of the vintages and materials that are currently in use at existing nuclear power plants (NPPs). These cables were immersed in water at 90°C and energized for a period of two years at elevated voltage. Partial discharge was measured during this period of time to track potential degradation. Unfortunately, due to the absence of failure, the extent of integration between the UMD techniques and the harvested MV insulation was limited. However, based on the findings and from the UMD research in the previous sections on polyethylene and polypropylene, follow-on characterization for harvested MV cable insulation should focus on sample preparation to take advantage of the UMD techniques to better understand mechanistic degradation in MV cable insulations. This would include: 1.) Utilization of solutions and impedance measurement insulation to track permeability in harvested and accelerated aging insulation samples, 2.) Adaptation of gold nanoparticle synthesis for electrical impedance spectroscopy with supporting SEM characterization to study pore formation in harvested and accelerated aged insulation samples, & 3.) ATR-FTIR crystallinity with multiple temperature dependent harvested MV cable insulation under different air and submerged accelerated aging. In addition, low voltage dielectric spectroscopy and high voltage dissipation factor, tan δ, could be implemented as a condition monitoring tool for harvested MV cable insulation in submerged environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Validation of the HyRAM+ physics models for use with propane

The Hydrogen Risk Assessment Model Plus (HyRAM+) toolkit combines quantitative risk assessment with simulations of unignited dispersion, ignited turbulent diffusion flames, and indoor accumulation with delayed ignition of fuels. HyRAM+ is differentiated from HyRAM in that it includes models and leak data for other alternate fuels. The models of the physical phenomena need to be validated for each of the fuels in the toolkit. This report shows the validation for propane which is being used as a surrogate for autogas, which is a mixture of propane and butane and used in internal combustion engines in vehicles. For flame length comparisons, five previously published experiments from peer reviewed journals were used to validate our models. The validation looked at flame lengths and flame widths with respect to different leak diameters, mass flow rates, and source pressures. Most of the sources included more than one set of experimental data, which were collected using different methods (CCD cameras, IR visualization etc.). In general, HyRAM+ overpredicts the flame lengths by around 65%. For heat and radiation models, we compared the heat flux and radiation data reported from two different sources to the values calculated by HyRAM+. For higher mass flow rates, the HyRAM+ calculated flame length results gave a better estimate of what is found in the experiments (65% error), but a higher error (85%) is observed between the HyRAM+ calculated lengths and the experimental flame lengthsfor lower mass flows. Some differences can be attributed to outdoor environmental effects (i.e. wind speed) and uncertainties in jet flame shapes. The propane flame trajectory is predicted for a high Reynolds number case with Re = 12,500 and a low Reynolds number case where Re = 2,000. The Re=12,500 case which is momentum dominated matches well with the experimental flame trajectory, but the agreement for the bouancy driven low Reynolds number case is not as good. Dispersion modeling for unignited propane was also analyzed. We compared the mole fraction, mixture fraction, mean velocity, concentration half width, and inverse mass concentration over an axial distance from different credible journals to the values calculated by HyRAM+. The results display good agreement but generally, HyRAM+ predicts a wider profile for mole fraction and mixture fraction experiments. Overall, HyRAM+’s results are reasonable for predicting the flame length, heat flux, flame trajectory, and dispersion for propane and can be used in risk analyses

08 HYDROGEN↗

Computational Tools and Workflows for Quantitative Risk Assessment and Decision Support for Geologic Carbon Storage Sites: Progress and Insights from the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership

The 2005 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on CCS raised the profile of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) as an important technology for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. CCS is now recognized as a key component of most climate change mitigation scenarios. Since publication of that report the international research, development, and deployment (RD&D) community has advanced key technical aspects, clarified regulatory requirements, explored value chain and infrastructure solutions, and developed incentive paradigms to enable and promote large-scale deployment of CCS. These efforts have included research to better characterize geologic storage resources, to improve injection performance and storage efficiency, to assess and manage subsurface environmental risks, and to advance monitoring technologies to assure system conformance. These efforts have helped to build confidence in the viability of geologic carbon storage (GCS), but stakeholder concerns about long-term risks and liability associated with GCS remain a hurdle to broad acceptance and large-scale deployment of CCS. Since 2010, the U.S. DOE’s National Risk Assessment Partnership (NRAP) – a research collaboration between five contributing national laboratories – has worked to establish and demonstrate methods and tools to quantify and manage the subsurface environmental risks associated with GCS, amidst uncertainty. This work supports the Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management Carbon Transport and Storage Program’s goal of advancing safe and secure commercial-scale GCS deployment. To address the technical challenge of simulating the physical response of the GCS site to large-scale CO2 injection, NRAP has adopted an approach that relies on coupling computationally efficient reduced-order and/or data-driven proxy models of important system components (i.e., storage reservoir, sealing caprock, leakage pathways, intermediate formations, overlying groundwater aquifers, and the atmosphere) in integrated assessment framework. That integrated model of the physical system is complemented with fit-for purpose functionality to support site characterization and risk-related decisions. The recently released NRAP Phase II toolset includes the Open-Source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) for evaluation of trends in leakage risk and potential impact, tools to support monitoring design optimization (Designs for Risk Evaluation and Management – DREAM v3.0 and Passive Seismic Monitoring Tool - PSMT), and tools for state of stress evaluation (State-of-Stress Analysis Tool - SOSAT) and forecasting induced seismicity risk. The NRAP team has also released a pair of reports describing conceptual workflows to incorporate physics-based, quantitative risk assessment into many of the design, planning, operation, and closure decisions for GCS projects. An online catalogue highlights published studies where these tools and methods are demonstrated. In this presentation, the utility of these products to assess risks and address key stakeholder questions will be highlighted through examples, and related insights about the safety and security of geologic carbon storage in qualified storage sites will be discussed. The prospect of rapid, large-scale deployment of GCS technology to aggressively reduce anthropogenic CO2 emissions requires careful consideration of interference between multiple commercial-scale storage projects within a basin. Going forward, NRAP is expanding and adapting site-scale risk quantification tools and methods to enable assessment of risks and inform management decisions for basin-scale deployment. Increasingly, this work will leverage next-generation approaches for surrogate modelling, fast prediction, and advanced visualization enabled by machine learning and artificial intelligence to promote virtual learning, scenario evaluation, and augment risk-based decision making.

quantitative risk assessment, geologic carbon stor↗

Mobile Hot Cell Digital Twin: End-of-life Management of Disused High Activity Radioactive Sources – 23598

Sealed radioactive sources are utilized for a wide range of applications across nuclear facilities, universities, hospitals, and industry. When these sources reach the end of serviceable life, they become waste. As waste, this radioactive material then goes through a process of recapture and then transfer to long term storage. With the advancement of technology in conjunction with better accessibility of technology, industries are exploring the use of digital automation to enhance productivity, efficiency, and safety while minimizing operation and maintenance costs, health and environmental risks, and uncertainty in the project life cycles. One area for exploration is the use of a digital twin to help design a robust, versatile, and safe solution for recapturing spent sources. We believe this avenue can also provide further advantages in the operations aspect of end-of-life management of spent radioactive sources by reducing the deployment time, increasing operator safety, and reducing operation & maintenance cost. We present a novel digital twin framework for end-of-life management of disused high activity radioactive sources. We have designed and developed a framework that houses a digital twin for visualizing and monitoring the recapture process to inform the engineering and design of a new Mobile Hot Cell. Furthermore, we demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed framework by providing a prototypical implementation, supporting the Mobile Hot Cell and human-machine interface's virtual replication.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Chance Encounter with a Stratospheric Kerosene Rocket Plume From Russia Over California

A high-altitude aircraft flight on April 18, 1997 detected an enormous aerosol cloud at 20 km altitude near California (37 N). Not visually observed, the cloud had high concentrations of soot and sulfate aerosol, and was over 180 km in horizontal extent. The cloud was probably a large hydrocarbon fueled vehicle, most likely from rocket motors burning liquid oxygen and kerosene. One of two Russian Soyuz rockets could have produced the cloud: a launch from the Baikonur Cosmodrome, Kazakhstan on April 6; or from Plesetsk, Russia on April 9. Parcel trajectories and long-lived trace gas concentrations suggest the Baikonur launch as the cloud source. Cloud trajectories do not trace the Soyuz plume from Asia to North America, illustrating the uncertainties of point-to-point trajectories. This cloud encounter is the only stratospheric measurement of a hydrocarbon fuel powered rocket.

Newman, P. A.↗