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At least 271 records · Page 15

Portal dosimetry for VMAT using integrated images obtained during treatment

Purpose: Portal dosimetry provides an accurate and convenient means of verifying dose delivered to the patient. A simple method for carrying out portal dosimetry for volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) is described, together with phantom measurements demonstrating the validity of the approach. Methods: Portal images were predicted by projecting dose in the isocentric plane through to the portal image plane, with exponential attenuation and convolution with a double-Gaussian scatter function. Appropriate parameters for the projection were selected by fitting the calculation model to portal images measured on an iViewGT portal imager (Elekta AB, Stockholm, Sweden) for a variety of phantom thicknesses and field sizes. This model was then used to predict the portal image resulting from each control point of a VMAT arc. Finally, all these control point images were summed to predict the overall integrated portal image for the whole arc. The calculated and measured integrated portal images were compared for three lung and three esophagus plans delivered to a thorax phantom, and three prostate plans delivered to a homogeneous phantom, using a gamma index for 3% and 3 mm. A 0.6 cm{sup 3} ionization chamber was used to verify the planned isocentric dose. The sensitivity of this method to errors in monitor units, field shaping, gantry angle, and phantom position was also evaluated by means of computer simulations. Results: The calculation model for portal dose prediction was able to accurately compute the portal images due to simple square fields delivered to solid water phantoms. The integrated images of VMAT treatments delivered to phantoms were also correctly predicted by the method. The proportion of the images with a gamma index of less than unity was 93.7% ± 3.0% (1SD) and the difference between isocenter dose calculated by the planning system and measured by the ionization chamber was 0.8% ± 1.0%. The method was highly sensitive to errors in monitor units and field shape, but less sensitive to errors in gantry angle or phantom position. Conclusions: This method of predicting integrated portal images provides a convenient means of verifying dose delivered using VMAT, with minimal image acquisition and data processing requirements.

61 RADIATION PROTECTION AND DOSIMETRY↗

Determination of the k{sub Q{sub c{sub l{sub i{sub n,Q{sub m{sub s{sub r}{sup f{sub c}{sub l}{sub i}{sub n},f{sub m}{sub s}{sub r}}}}}}}}} correction factors for detectors used with an 800 MU/min CyberKnife{sup ®} system equipped with fixed collimators and a study of detector response to small photon beams using a Monte Carlo method

Purpose: In a previous work, output ratio (OR{sub det}) measurements were performed for the 800 MU/min CyberKnife{sup ®} at the Oscar Lambret Center (COL, France) using several commercially available detectors as well as using two passive dosimeters (EBT2 radiochromic film and micro-LiF TLD-700). The primary aim of the present work was to determine by Monte Carlo calculations the output factor in water (OF{sub MC,w}) and the k{sub Q{sub c{sub l{sub i{sub n,Q{sub m{sub s{sub r}{sup f{sub c}{sub l}{sub i}{sub n},f{sub m}{sub s}{sub r}}}}}}}}} correction factors. The secondary aim was to study the detector response in small beams using Monte Carlo simulation. Methods: The LINAC head of the CyberKnife{sup ®} was modeled using the PENELOPE Monte Carlo code system. The primary electron beam was modeled using a monoenergetic source with a radial gaussian distribution. The model was adjusted by comparisons between calculated and measured lateral profiles and tissue-phantom ratios obtained with the largest field. In addition, the PTW 60016 and 60017 diodes, PTW 60003 diamond, and micro-LiF were modeled. Output ratios with modeled detectors (OR{sub MC,det}) and OF{sub MC,w} were calculated and compared to measurements, in order to validate the model for smallest fields and to calculate k{sub Q{sub c{sub l{sub i{sub n,Q{sub m{sub s{sub r}{sup f{sub c}{sub l}{sub i}{sub n},f{sub m}{sub s}{sub r}}}}}}}}} correction factors, respectively. For the study of the influence of detector characteristics on their response in small beams; first, the impact of the atomic composition and the mass density of silicon, LiF, and diamond materials were investigated; second, the material, the volume averaging, and the coating effects of detecting material on the detector responses were estimated. Finally, the influence of the size of silicon chip on diode response was investigated. Results: Looking at measurement ratios (uncorrected output factors) compared to the OF{sub MC,w}, the PTW 60016, 60017 and Sun Nuclear EDGE diodes systematically over-responded (about +6% for the 5 mm field), whereas the PTW 31014 Pinpoint chamber systematically under-responded (about −12% for the 5 mm field). OR{sub det} measured with the SFD diode and PTW 60003 diamond detectors were in good agreement with OF{sub MC,w} except for the 5 mm field size (about −7.5% for the diamond and +3% for the SFD). A good agreement with OF{sub MC,w} was obtained with the EBT2 film and micro-LiF dosimeters (deviation less than 1.4% for all fields investigated). k{sub Q{sub c{sub l{sub i{sub n,Q{sub m{sub s{sub r}{sup f{sub c}{sub l}{sub i}{sub n},f{sub m}{sub s}{sub r}}}}}}}}} correction factors for several detectors used in this work have been calculated. The impact of atomic composition on the dosimetric response of detectors was found to be insignificant, unlike the mass density and size of the detecting material. Conclusions: The results obtained with the passive dosimeters showed that they can be used for small beam OF measurements without correction factors. The study of detector response showed that OR{sub det} is depending on the mass density, the volume averaging, and the coating effects of the detecting material. Each effect was quantified for the PTW 60016 and 60017 diodes, the micro-LiF, and the PTW 60003 diamond detectors. None of the active detectors used in this work can be recommended as a reference for small field dosimetry, but an improved diode detector with a smaller silicon chip coated with tissue-equivalent material is anticipated (by simulation) to be a reliable small field dosimetric detector in a nonequilibrium field.

07 ISOTOPE AND RADIATION SOURCES↗

Extraction of Tumor Site from Cancer Pathology Reports using Deep Filters

Purpose: Pathology reports are the primary source of information concerning the millions of cancer cases across the United States. Cancer registries manually process the pathology reports to extract the pertinent information including primary tumor site, behavior, histology, laterality, and grade. Processing a large volume of the pathology reports in a timely manner is a continuing challenge for cancer registries. The purpose of this study is to develop an information extraction pipeline to reliably and efficiently extract reportable information. Method: We have developed a novel inverse-regression (IR) based information extraction pipeline. The inverse-regression based supervised filter has been successfully applied to many application domains. However, its application to the information extraction from unstructured text is hindered primarily by the extreme high-dimensionality of n-gram representations of text. In this study, we attempt to overcome the obstacles by a novel bootstrapping strategy. First, we use an information-theoretic mutual information based filter to discard the excessive and redundant n-gram features. This step reduces the size and improves the condition number of the sample covariance matrix, thus reducing the computational cost and improving the numerical stability of the subsequent inverse-regression step. Then we use localized sliced inverse-regression (LSIR) to learn a low-dimensional discriminatory subspace for information inference. In particular, we use the k-nearest neighbors of an unlabeled pathology report in the learned representation to infer the desired information from the labeled data in a supervised manner. Results: The experiments were conducted on a set of de-identified pathology reports with human expert labels as the ground truth. Our pipeline consistently performed better than or comparable to the best performing state-of-the-art methods while reducing the training and inference times substantially. Conclusion: Our results demonstrate the potential of inverse-regression based information extraction pipeline for reliable and efficient information extraction from unstructured text. The information extracted from the pathology reports can be used along with clinical information, medical imaging, and genomic information to instigate discoveries in cancer research.

Dubey, Abhishek↗

Demonstration of Electrochemically-Driven CO 2 Separation Using Hydroxide Exchange Membranes

Hydroxide exchange membrane fuel cells (HEMFCs) are a potentially lower-cost hydrogen fuel cell technology; however, ambient levels of CO 2 in air significantly reduce HEMFCs’ performance. In this work, we demonstrate an electrochemically-driven CO 2 separator (EDCS) which can be used to remove ambient levels of CO 2 from air upstream of the HEMFC stack in fuel cell vehicles, protecting it from CO 2 -related performance losses. The EDCS operating window was explored for current density, anode flow, and cathode flow with respect to its impact on CO 2 separation performance. Additionally, gas-phase mass transport was improved by selecting flow fields and gas diffusion layers conducive to the EDCS operating regime. The use of a carbon-ionomer interlayer at the cathode was explored and improved CO 2 removal performance from 77.7% to 98.2% at 20 mA cm −2 . An analytical, 1-D model is used to explain the experimental observations and design improvements. A single-cell, 25 cm 2 EDCS using the aforementioned improved design demonstrated greater than 98% CO 2 removal at a cathode flow rate of 1300 sccm for 100 h with 2.7% hydrogen stack consumption.

Matz, Stephanie↗

Using Median Point in Keeling Plot to Reduce the Uncertainty of the Isotopic Composition of Evapotranspiration

Abstract The isotopic composition of evapotranspirationδ ET is a crucial parameter in isotope-based evapotranspiration (ET) partitioning and moisture recycling studies. The Keeling plot method is the most prevalent method to calculateδ ET , though it contains large extrapolated uncertainties from the least squares regression. Traditional Keeling regression uses the mean point of individual measurements. Here, a modified Keeling plot framework was proposed using the median point of individual measurements. We tested theδ ET uncertainty using the mean point [σ ET (mean)] and median point [σ ET (median)]. Multiple resolutions of input and output data from six independent sites were used to test the performance of the two methods. Theσ ET (mean) would be greater thanσ ET (median) when the mean value of inverse vapor concentration () is greater than the median value of inverse vapor concentration []. When applying the filter ofr 2 > 0.8, around 70% ofσ ET (mean) was greater thanσ ET (median). This phenomenon might be due to the normality of the vapor concentrationC υ producing the asymmetric distribution of 1/C υ . The median method could perform significantly better than the mean method when inputting high-resolution measurements (e.g., 1 Hz) and when the water vapor concentrationC υ is relatively low. Compared to the mean method, applying the median method could on average reduce 6.88% of ET partitioning uncertainties and could on average reduce 9.00% of moisture recycling uncertainties. This study provided a new insight of the Keeling plot method and emphasized handling model output uncertainty from multiple perspectives instead of only from input parameters.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Evaluating isoprenol production using the IPP-bypass pathway in the oleaginous yeast Rhodosporidium toruloides

Background To strengthen the national energy supply, there is an increasing demand for domestically generated aviation fuels. Bio-derived advanced aviation fuels offer the opportunity to meet this domestic need while presenting a unique opportunity to investigate the production of novel aviation fuels. Isoprenol, a chemical precursor to such novel fuels, has been shown to be a biologically producible compound in model organisms, but its bio-producibility needs to be further explored in organisms more compatible with industrial bioproduction. Results In this work, we evaluate isoprenol production using the promising bioproduction yeast, Rhodosporidium toruloides. First, we show successful isoprenol production using the IPP-bypass pathways most successful in laboratory strains of E. coli and S. cerevisiae. Next, we demonstrate that increased flux through the mevalonate pathway only modestly increases isoprenol titers. Using proteomics, we identified a potential bottleneck in production at the final step in the IPP-bypass pathway and explored alternative enzymes for this step. Finally, the top three strains of R. toruloides were evaluated in sorghum hydrolysates generated using cholinium lysinate. Through this work, 93.1 mg/L of isoprenol was produced in mock medium and 27.3 mg/L in sorghum hydrolysates. Conclusion Together these results lay the foundation for future work for the production of isoprenol from bioproduction crops.

Advanced aviation fuel↗

Data and Scripts Associated with "Modeling Ecohydrological Responses of Vegetation to Urban Microclimates Using the E3SM Land Model"

This dataset supports the study of vegetation ecohydrological responses to urban microclimates using the land component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (ELM) at four urban sites in Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. It includes the model inputs, simulation outputs, and associated scripts for running ELM simulations and analyzing the resulting data. The Model_Inputs folder includes static surface data, satellite-derived phenology (i.e., leaf area index), and atmospheric forcing data used to drive ELM simulations. Detailed descriptions of these datasets are provided in Section 2.3.2 of the associated manuscript. The Model_Outputs folder contains simulation results for the baseline, treatment, and ensemble experiments. Outputs from the baseline and treatment simulations are provided as raw ELM NetCDF files. Because the raw outputs from the 4,000-member ensemble are prohibitively large, the ensemble results are provided as summarized CSV files, which also serve as the source data for Figure 5 of the associated manuscript. The Scripts folder contains three components: E3SM, the core codebase of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM); elm-olmt, the Offline Land Model Testbed (OLMT) used to perform the simulations; and knoxville_elm, which contains the analysis scripts used to process model outputs and generate the figures and results presented in the associated manuscript. Additional information is provided in Scripts_readme.txt within the Scripts directory.

Lu, Xiaoman [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306698780)↗

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps

States and utilities are developing increasingly ambitious energy goals. Part of the solution to meeting these goals is improving electric grid flexibility. This includes shifting electric demand to align with grid needs. Thus, identifying and using building energy efficiency and other distributed energy resources to produce the highest grid value requires highly resolved, accurate and accessible electricity end-use load profiles (EULPs). EULPs quantify how and when energy is used. Currently, few accurate and accessible end-use load profiles are available for utilities, public utility commissions, state energy offices and other stakeholders to use to prioritize investment and value energy efficiency, demand response, distributed generation and energy storage. High-quality EULPs are also critical for determining the time-sensitive value of efficiency and other distributed energy resources, and the widespread adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs).For example, EULPs can be used to accurately forecast energy savings in buildings or identify energy activities that can be shifted to different times of the day. This report serves as the first-year deliverable for a multiyear U.S. Department of Energy-funded project, End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock, that intends to produce a set of highly resolved EULPs of the U.S. residential and commercial building stock. The project team, made up of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Argonne National Laboratory, ultimately will use calibrated physics-based building energy models to create these EULPs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Use Attainability Analysis Aquatic Life Uses for Perennial Reach of Sandia Canyon [Slides]

The following information will be presented during the February 23, 2022 Accord Pueblos Technical Meeting. The purpose of the study is to determine if natural thermal conditions are preventing the attainment of Coldwater Aquatic Life Use in the perennial reach of the upper Sandia Canyon Assessment Unit (Sandia AU). The New Mexico Water Quality Standards allow for a change in the designated use if a Use Attainability Analysis (UAA) demonstrates that the use is not attainable due to one or more of six factors listed in 40 CFR 131.10(g), including naturally occurring pollutant concentrations. The Sandia AU is located in a perennial reach of upper Sandia Canyon between Sigma Canyon and NPDES Outfall 001. The classified Segment 20.6.4.126 NMAC comprises perennial waters within Los Alamos National Laboratory boundaries and includes the Sandia AU. Persistent surface flows originate from NPDES permitted effluent releases. These releases have occurred since the early 1950’s and continue today. The UAA examines several lines of evidence. NMED’s Air-Water Temperature Correlation (AWTC) model is used for identifying appropriate stream classifications and attainable aquatic life use subcategories. The model correlates between July average air temperatures (ATEMP) and maximum weekly average stream temperatures. Air temperatures are obtained from PRISM and LANL Meteorological Towers and used to derive ATEMP. Thermographs were placed in the Sandia AU to obtain measured stream temperatures during summer months when stream temperatures are the highest. Measured data is used with AWTC modeled data to determine if the Sandia AU is meeting its natural air temperature driven thermal condition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

It takes a village: using a crowdsourced approach to investigate organic matter composition in global rivers through the lens of ecological theory

Though community-based scientific approaches are becoming more common, many scientific efforts are conducted by small groups of researchers that together develop a concept, analyze data, and interpret results that ultimately translate into a publication. Here, we present a community effort that breaks these traditional boundaries of the publication process by engaging the scientific community from initial hypothesis generation to final publication. We leverage community-generated data from the Worldwide Hydrobiogeochemistry Observation Network for Dynamic River Systems (WHONDRS) consortium to study organic matter composition through the lens of ecological theory. This community endeavor will use a suite of paired physical and chemical datasets collected from 97 river corridors across the globe. With our first step aimed at ideation, we engaged a community of scientists from 20 countries and 60 institutions, spanning disciplines and career stages by holding a virtual workshop (April 2021). In the workshop, participants generated content for questions, hypotheses, and proposed analyses based on the WHONDRS dataset. These ideation efforts resulted in several narratives investigating different questions led by different teams, which will be the basis for research articles in a Frontiers in Water collection. Currently, the community is collectively analyzing, interpreting, and synthesizing these data that will result in seven crowdsourced articles using a single, existing WHONDRS dataset. The use of a shared dataset across articles not only lowers barriers for broad participation by not requiring generation of new data, but also provides unique opportunities for emergent learning by connecting outcomes across studies. Here we will explain methods used to enable this community endeavor aimed to promote a greater diversity of thinking on river corridor biogeochemistry through community science.

Borton, Mikayla A.↗

Metadata Schemas and Ontologies for Building Energy Applications: A Critical Review and Use Case Analysis

With the increasing digitalization of processes throughout the lifecycle of buildings, data exchanged between stakeholders and between building systems has grown significantly. However, a lack of semantic interoperability between data in different systems is still prevalent, hindering the development of applications that can be reused across buildings and limiting the scalability of innovative solutions. Semantics refers to the description of the meaning of the data in a way that can be consistently understood by applications. Recently, several competing initiatives have been developing metadata schemas and ontologies to express this semantic information for different applications in the building domain. This paper systematically reviews these schemas and conducts an analysis of five of them to evaluate their applicability to three high-value use cases for building operations: energy audits, automated fault detection and diagnostics and optimal control. The survey finds 40 schemas published in the last 10 years but but their actual use in industry is difficult to estimate. Among the five selected ontologies, several gaps are highlighted in relation to the three use cases. Recommendations for the future include better harmonization of these initiatives, more centralized repositories and search engines for these schemas as well as better industry engagement to facilitate their adoption.

Smart Building, Sematic, Metadata, Ontology, Data ↗

DETECTION OF LENSING SUBSTRUCTURE USING ALMA OBSERVATIONS OF THE DUSTY GALAXY SDP.81

We study the abundance of substructure in the matter density near galaxies using ALMA Science Verification observations of the strong lensing system SDP.81. We present a method to measure the abundance of subhalos around galaxies using interferometric observations of gravitational lenses. Using simulated ALMA observations we explore the effects of various systematics, including antenna phase errors and source priors, and show how such errors may be measured or marginalized. We apply our formalism to ALMA observations of SDP.81. We find evidence for the presence of a M = 10{sup 8.96±0.12} M {sub ⊙} subhalo near one of the images, with a significance of 6.9 σ in a joint fit to data from bands 6 and 7; the effect of the subhalo is also detected in both bands individually. We also derive constraints on the abundance of dark matter (DM) subhalos down to M ∼ 2 × 10{sup 7} M {sub ⊙}, pushing down to the mass regime of the smallest detected satellites in the Local Group, where there are significant discrepancies between the observed population of luminous galaxies and predicted DM subhalos. We find hints of additional substructure, warranting further study using the full SDP.81 data set (including, for example, the spectroscopic imaging of the lensed carbon monoxide emission). We compare the results of this search to the predictions of ΛCDM halos, and find that given current uncertainties in the host halo properties of SDP.81, our measurements of substructure are consistent with theoretical expectations. Observations of larger samples of gravitational lenses with ALMA should be able to improve the constraints on the abundance of galactic substructure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Observation and characterization of a cosmic muon neutrino flux from the northern hemisphere using six years of IceCube data

The IceCube Collaboration has previously discovered a high-energy astrophysical neutrino flux using neutrino events with interaction vertices contained within the instrumented volume of the IceCube detector. We present a complementary measurement using charged current muon neutrino events where the interaction vertex can be outside this volume. As a consequence of the large muon range the effective area is significantly larger but the field of view is restricted to the Northern Hemisphere. IceCube data from 2009 through 2015 have been analyzed using a likelihood approach based on the reconstructed muon energy and zenith angle. At the highest neutrino energies between 194 TeV and 7.8 PeV a significant astrophysical contribution is observed, excluding a purely atmospheric origin of these events at 5.6σ significance. The data are well described by an isotropic, unbroken power-law flux with a normalization at 100 TeV neutrino energy of (0.90{sub −0.27}{sup +0.30})×10{sup −18} GeV{sup −1} cm{sup −2} s{sup −1} sr{sup −1} and a hard spectral index of γ=2.13±0.13. The observed spectrum is harder in comparison to previous IceCube analyses with lower energy thresholds which may indicate a break in the astrophysical neutrino spectrum of unknown origin. The highest-energy event observed has a reconstructed muon energy of (4.5±1.2) PeV which implies a probability of less than 0.005% for this event to be of atmospheric origin. Analyzing the arrival directions of all events with reconstructed muon energies above 200 TeV no correlation with known γ-ray sources was found. Using the high statistics of atmospheric neutrinos we report the current best constraints on a prompt atmospheric muon neutrino flux originating from charmed meson decays which is below 1.06 in units of the flux normalization of the model in Enberg et al.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

First Cosmology Results using Supernovae Ia from the Dark Energy Survey: Survey Overview, Performance, and Supernova Spectroscopy

We present details on the observing strategy, data-processing techniques, and spectroscopic targeting algorithms for the first three years of operation for the Dark Energy Survey Supernova Program (DES-SN). This five-year program using the Dark Energy Camera mounted on the 4 m Blanco telescope in Chile was designed to discover and follow supernovae (SNe) Ia over a wide redshift range (0.05 < z < 1.2) to measure the equation-of-state parameter of dark energy. We describe the SN program in full: strategy, observations, data reduction, spectroscopic follow-up observations, and classification. From three seasons of data, we have discovered 12,015 likely SNe, 308 of which have been spectroscopically confirmed, including 251 SNe Ia over a redshift range of 0.017 < z < 0.85. We determine the effective spectroscopic selection function for our sample and use it to investigate the redshift-dependent bias on the distance moduli of SNe Ia we have classified. The data presented here are used for the first cosmology analysis by DES-SN (“DES-SN3YR”), the results of which are given in Dark Energy Survey Collaboration et al. The 489 spectra that are used to define the DES-SN3YR sample are publicly available at https://des.ncsa.illinois.edu/releases/sn.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Measuring Alignments between Galaxies and the Cosmic Web at z ∼ 2–3 Using IGM Tomography

Many galaxy formation models predict alignments between galaxy spin and the cosmic web (i.e., directions of filaments and sheets), leading to an intrinsic alignment between galaxies that creates a systematic error in weak-lensing measurements. These effects are often predicted to be stronger at high redshifts (z ≳ 1) that are inaccessible to massive galaxy surveys on foreseeable instrumentation, but IGM tomography of the Lyα forest from closely spaced quasars and galaxies is starting to measure the z ∼ 2–3 cosmic web with requisite fidelity. Using mock surveys from hydrodynamical simulations, we examine the utility of this technique, in conjunction with coeval galaxy samples, to measure alignment between galaxies and the cosmic web at z ∼ 2.5. We show that IGM tomography surveys with ≲5 h {sup −1} Mpc sightline spacing can accurately recover the eigenvectors of the tidal tensor, which we use to define the directions of the cosmic web. For galaxy spins and shapes, we use a model parameterized by the alignment strength, Δ〈cos θ〉, with respect to the tidal tensor eigenvectors from the underlying density field, and also consider observational effects such as errors in the galaxy position angle, inclination, and redshift. Measurements using the upcoming ∼1 deg{sup 2} CLAMATO tomographic survey and 600 coeval zCOSMOS-Deep galaxies should place 3σ limits on extreme alignment models with Δ〈cos θ〉∼0.1, but much larger surveys encompassing >10,000 galaxies, such as Subaru PFS, will be required to constrain models with Δ〈cos θ〉∼0.03. These measurements will constrain models of galaxy–cosmic web alignment and test tidal torque theory at z ∼ 2, improving our understanding of the physics of intrinsic alignments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Parameterizing deep convection using the assumed probability density function method

Due to their coarse horizontal resolution, present-day climate models must parameterize deep convection. This paper presents single-column simulations of deep convection using a probability density function (PDF) parameterization. The PDF parameterization predicts the PDF of subgrid variability of turbulence, clouds, and hydrometeors. That variability is interfaced to a prognostic microphysics scheme using a Monte Carlo sampling method.The PDF parameterization is used to simulate tropical deep convection, the transition from shallow to deep convection over land, and mid-latitude deep convection.These parameterized single-column simulations are compared with 3-D reference simulations. The agreement is satisfactory except when the convective forcing is weak. The same PDF parameterization is also used to simulate shallow cumulus and stratocumulus layers. The PDF method is sufficiently general to adequately simulate these five deep, shallow, and stratiform cloud cases with a single equation set. This raises hopes that it may be possible in the future, with further refinements at coarse time step and grid spacing, to parameterize all cloud types in a large-scale model in a unified way.

Storer, R. L.↗

Land use mapping and change detection using ERTS imagery in Montgomery County, Alabama

The feasibility of using remotely sensed data from ERTS-1 for mapping land use and detecting land use change was investigated. Land use information was gathered from 1964 air photo mosaics and from 1972 ERTS data. The 1964 data provided the basis for comparison with ERTS-1 imagery. From this comparison, urban sprawl was quite evident for the city of Montgomery. A significant trend from forestland to agricultural was also discovered. The development of main traffic arteries between 1964 and 1972 was a vital factor in the development of some of the urban centers. Even though certain problems in interpreting and correlating land use data from ERTS imagery were encountered, it has been demonstrated that remotely sensed data from ERTS is useful for inventorying land use and detecting land use change.

Wilms, R. P.↗