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DOE OSTI2024

The Potential of Hydrogeodesy to Address Water-Related and Sustainability Challenges

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite-based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta-analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water-related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Thermal, mechanical, and electrical properties of LSCo/mullite composite contact materials for solid oxide fuel cells

Lanthanum strontium cobaltite (LSCo) is considered as a good candidate cathode contact material for solid oxide fuel cells, due to high electrical conductivity. However, LSCo has a very large coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) than the cells and metallic interconnects. As a result, poor mechanical stability is expected during thermal cycling. To minimize the CTE mismatch, we investigate a composite approach involving mixing LSCo with an inert material of low CTE, such as mullite at volume fractions from 0.1 to 0.4. Composite’s CTE shows a decreasing trend with increasing mullite volume fractions, and is consistent with model predictions. X-ray powder diffraction analysis of sintered LSCo/mullite composites exhibits no presence of other phases for samples aged for 500h at 800oC, indicating chemical compatibility. Electrical conductivity by a 4-pt method shows a decreasing trend with increasing mullite content. Contact strength of as-sintered and thermally cycled samples show that only the composite with 0.4 volume fraction has a measurable strength; the other composites have no strength. Overall, the composite approach is demonstrated in the LSCo/mullite system to lower the CTE and hence achieve thermal cycle stability. The addition of the inert phase to the LSCo matrix; however, also reduces the electrical conductivity.

Contact materials, LSCo, mullite, CTE, electrical ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Predicting Trends in VOC Through Rapid, Multimodal Characterization of State-of-the-Art p-i-n Perovskite Devices

Perovskite photovoltaic technologies are approaching commercial deployment, yet single junction and tandem architectures both still have significant room to improve power conversion efficiency and stability. The ability to perform rapid screening of material quality after altering processing conditions is critical to accelerating the optimization and commercialization of perovskite-based technologies. Currently, researchers utilize a wide range of stand-alone metrology tools to isolate sources of power loss throughout a device stack, which can be slow and labor intensive. Here, we demonstrate the use of a multimodal metrology approach to rapidly determine the maximum achievable and predicted open circuit voltages of >100 perovskite devices during fabrication. Acquisition of these different data is facilitated by combining them into a single integrated measurement platform. We show that these data and automated analysis can be used to rapidly understand and ultimately predict quantitative trends in open circuit voltages of state-of-the-art device architectures. The data and automated analysis workflow presented provides a reliable approach to quickly identify absorber and charge transport layer combinations that can lead to improved open circuit voltages.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Role of Wind Speed in Prolonging Large Fire Durations in the Western US

Abstract The duration of large wildfires in the western US has increased significantly from 1992 to 2020 in the two fire seasons, by 0.76 days yr −1 in summer and 0.55 days yr −1 in fall. The factors driving the trend and variability were analyzed using multiple linear regression models. Our analysis identified the maximum daily wind speed during large fires, which has also increased during the study period, as the primary predictor for the large fire duration. Despite the observed rise in maximum wind speed specifically during large fires, there are no corresponding trends in the average daily mean wind speed throughout the fire seasons. The mechanisms underlying the increase in maximum wind speed during large fires remain unclear and warrant further investigation, as they may pose growing challenges for fire control.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Recent Trends in Transport of Surface Carbonaceous Aerosols to the Upper-Troposphere-Lower-Stratosphere Linked to Expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone

Using Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version-2 (MERRA-2) re-analyses, we have examined recent trends (2000–2019) in transport of surface carbonaceous aerosols (CAs), that is, organic carbon and black carbon, to the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) during the Asian summer monsoon (ASM). We find a significant increased concentration of UTLS CA, linked to a linear trend in an expansion of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone (ASMA). Over core monsoon latitudes (25°–35°N), the trends in UTLS CA are enabled by increased upward transport from surface sources via an intensified monsoon meridional circulation, with increased latent heating over the southern Tibetan Plateau and foothill regions, enhanced by feedback processes associated with radiative heating by UTLS CA. In the extra-tropics, increased UTLS CA stems primarily from an extended source of increased wildfire emissions over eastern Siberia and northern Asia, coincident with a large-scale anomalous anticyclone with enhanced surface warming and drying near (80°–120°E, 55°–70°N). Here, CAs are transported upward from the surface to the ULS, likely by increased pyro-convection associated with enhanced wildfires, and enter the tropical UTLS via increased equatorward transport on the eastern flanks of anomalous upper-level anticyclones, coupled to the expanded ASMA. Overall, the increasing UTLS CA trends associated with expansion of the ASMA are consistent with a hydrostatic expansion of a warming troposphere, reflected in a rise in the tropical tropopause and consequential dynamical adjustments of the ASM subtropical jetstream, modulating the climate of the greater ASM region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Emergent Trends Complicate the Interpretation of the United States Drought Monitor (USDM)

Abstract Effective drought management must be informed by an understanding of whether and how current drought monitoring and assessment practices represent underlying nonstationary climate conditions, either naturally occurring or forced by climate change. Here we investigate the emerging climatology and associated trends in drought classes defined by the United States Drought Monitor (USDM), a weekly product that, since 2000, has been used to inform drought management in the United States. The USDM classifies drought intensity based in part on threshold percentiles in key hydroclimate quantities. Here we assess how those USDM‐defined drought threshold percentiles have changed over the last 23 years, examining precipitation, runoff, soil moisture (SM), terrestrial water storage (TWS), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and near‐surface air temperature. We also assess underlying trends in the frequency of drought classifications across the U.S. Our analysis suggests that the frequency of drought class occurrence is exceeding the threshold percentiles defined by the USDM in a number of regions in the United States, particularly in the American West, where the last 23 years have emerged as a prolonged dry period. These trends are also reflected in percentile‐based thresholds in precipitation, runoff, SM, TWS, VPD, and temperature. Our results emphasize that while the USDM appears to be accurately reflecting observed nonstationarity in the physical climate, such trends raise critical questions about whether and how drought diagnosis, classification, and monitoring should address long‐term intervals of wet and dry periods or trends.

Geology↗
DOE OSTI2022

GCAM Base Year Update

In FY21 we worked to update the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to match historical energy consumption and technology cost trends and near-term economic growth expectations using available historical data out to 2019. We have done this in a way that builds the capacity to more easily update the model in the future to make GCAM a robust and readily updatable tool for decarbonization analysis.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Decomposition of Irganox 1010 in plastic bonded explosives

Abstract Degradation pathways of Irganox 1010 in aged plastic bonded explosive (PBX) 9501 were investigated using ultrahigh performance liquid chromatography coupled to quadrupole time of flight mass spectrometry (UHPLC‐QTOF). Using a targeted approach, a total of 44 Irganox 1010 decomposition products were discovered. These decomposition products were formed through hydrolysis, scission, and/or oxidation of Irganox 1010. The hydrolytic decomposition of Irganox is a straightforward process resulting in the cleavage of the ester group(s) while oxidation and scission are more complicated and can happen at multiple locations on the Irganox 1010 molecule. Moreover, due to the symmetric nature of Irganox 1010, multiple decomposition reactions can occur. Indeed some decomposition products exhibited hydrolysis, oxidation, and scission. In order to probe any trends in the aged PBX 9501 samples, principal component analysis (PCA) was implemented. The greatest chemical differences between the aged PBX samples was hydrolysis of the ester functional groups on Irganox 1010. Despite the negative connotations of hydrolysis, the Irganox 1010 decomposition products are still able to function as a radical scavenger in PBX 9501 as intended.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Magnetic coupling between Fe(NO) spin probe ligands through diamagnetic Ni II , Pd II and Pt II tetrathiolate bridges

Reaction of the nitrosylated-iron metallodithiolate ligand, paramagnetic (NO)Fe(N 2 S 2 ), with [M(CH 3 CN) n ][BF 4 ] 2 salts (M = Ni II , Pd II , and Pt II ; n = 4 or 6) affords di-radical tri-metallic complexes in a stairstep type arrangement ([FeMFe] 2+ , M = Ni, Pd, and Pt), with the central group 10 metal held in a MS 4 square plane. These isostructural compounds have nearly identical ν(NO) stretching values, isomer shifts, and electrochemical properties, but vary in their magnetic properties. Despite the intramolecular Fe∙∙∙Fe distances of ca. 6 Å, antiferromagnetic coupling is observed between {Fe(NO)} 7 units as established by magnetic susceptibility, EPR, and DFT studies. The superexchange interaction through the thiolate sulfur and central metal atoms is on the order of Ni II < Pd II $\ll$ Pt II with exchange coupling constants (J) of -3, -23, and -124 cm -1 , consistent with increased covalency of the M–S bonds (3d < 4d < 5d). This trend is reproduced by DFT calculations with molecular orbital analysis providing insight into the origin of the enhancement in the exchange interaction. Specifically, the magnitude of the exchange interaction correlates surprisingly well with the energy difference between the HOMO and HOMO-1 orbitals of the triplet states, which is reflected in the central metal's contribution to these orbitals. These results demonstrate the ability of sulfur-dense metallodithiolate ligands to engender strong magnetic communication by virtue of their enhanced covalency and polarizability.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Diploid-dominant life cycles characterize the early evolution of Fungi

Most of the described species in kingdom Fungi are contained in two phyla, the Ascomycota and the Basidiomycota (subkingdom Dikarya). As a result, our understanding of the biology of the kingdom is heavily influenced by traits observed in Dikarya, such as aerial spore dispersal and life cycles dominated by mitosis of haploid nuclei. We now appreciate that Fungi comprises numerous phylum-level lineages in addition to those of Dikarya, but the phylogeny and genetic characteristics of most of these lineages are poorly understood due to limited genome sampling. Here, we addressed major evolutionary trends in the non-Dikarya fungi by phylogenomic analysis of 69 newly generated draft genome sequences of the zoosporic (flagellated) lineages of true fungi. Our phylogeny indicated five lineages of zoosporic fungi and placed Blastocladiomycota, which has an alternation of haploid and diploid generations, as branching closer to the Dikarya than to the Chytridiomyceta. Our estimates of heterozygosity based on genome sequence data indicate that the zoosporic lineages plus the Zoopagomycota are frequently characterized by diploid-dominant life cycles. We mapped additional traits, such as ancestral cell-cycle regulators, cell-membrane– and cell-wall–associated genes, and the use of the amino acid selenocysteine on the phylogeny and found that these ancestral traits that are shared with Metazoa have been subject to extensive parallel loss across zoosporic lineages. Together, our results indicate a gradual transition in the genetics and cell biology of fungi from their ancestor and caution against assuming that traits measured in Dikarya are typical of other fungal lineages.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Dengue virus remains a significant public health challenge in Brazil, and seasonal preparation efforts are hindered by variable intra- and interseasonal dynamics. Here, we present a framework for characterizing weekly dengue activity at the Brazilian mesoregion level from 2010–2016 as time series properties that are relevant to forecasting efforts, focusing on outbreak shape, seasonal timing, and pairwise correlations in magnitude and onset. In addition, we use a combination of 18 satellite remote sensing imagery, weather, clinical, mobility, and census data streams and regression methods to identify a parsimonious set of covariates that explain each time series property. The models explained 54% of the variation in outbreak shape, 38% of seasonal onset, 34% of pairwise correlation in outbreak timing, and 11% of pairwise correlation in outbreak magnitude. Regions that have experienced longer periods of drought sensitivity, as captured by the “normalized burn ratio,” experienced less intense outbreaks, while regions with regular fluctuations in relative humidity had less regular seasonal outbreaks. Both the pairwise correlations in outbreak timing and outbreak trend between mesoresgions were best predicted by distance. Our analysis also revealed the presence of distinct geographic clusters where dengue properties tend to be spatially correlated. Forecasting models aimed at predicting the dynamics of dengue activity need to identify the most salient variables capable of contributing to accurate predictions. Our findings show that successful models may need to leverage distinct variables in different locations and be catered to a specific task, such as predicting outbreak magnitude or timing characteristics, to be useful. This advocates in favor of “adaptive models” rather than “one-size-fits-all” models. The results of this study can be applied to improving spatial hierarchical or target-focused forecasting models of dengue activity across Brazil.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Measuring labor productivity dynamics in U.S. industrial and electric power sectors: a case study (2014–2023)

This study proposes a subsystem methodology for measuring labor productivity in the U.S. industrial and electric power sectors by leveraging public data available between 2014 and 2023. Building on Pasinetti’s framework and subsequent developments, the approach employs Vertically Integrated Sectors (VIS) to account for both direct and indirect productivity effects. The novelty of this work is twofold. First, it enables the estimation of productivity trends over time, providing a robust foundation for empirical analysis. Second, it applies the methodology to a case study of the electric generation sector, highlighting its practical relevance. Using data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Impact Analysis for Planning (IMPLAN) tool, the study reveals significant discrepancies between conventional productivity measures and those derived from the VIS approach. Furthermore, the proposed method aligns with the principles of Integrated Energy Systems by capturing the interrelations among generation, distribution, storage, and consumption. This alignment underscores its utility and applications for energy-related policy and planning. Overall, the findings contribute to more precise labor productivity assessments, supporting informed decision-making and future research. Additionally, the method highlights the importance of considering the whole supply chain, providing interrelated metrics for labor productivity which includes both, direct and indirect effects on the final labor productivity metric. By incorporating intersectoral dependencies, this method offers a more comprehensive and accurate measure of labor productivity compared to traditional metrics.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Host Dark Matter Halos of SDSS Red and Blue Quasars: No Significant Difference in Large-scale Environment

The observed optical colors of quasars are generally interpreted in one of two frameworks: unified models that attribute the color to the random orientation of the accretion disk along the line of sight, and evolutionary models that invoke connections between quasar systems and their environments. We test these schemas by probing the dark matter halo environments of optically selected quasars as a function of g – i optical color by measuring the two-point correlation functions of ~0.34 million eBOSS quasars as well as the gravitational deflection of cosmic microwave background photons around ~0.66 million XDQSO photometric quasar candidates. We do not detect a trend of halo bias with optical color through either analysis, finding that optically selected quasars at 0.8 < z < 2.2 occupy halos of characteristic mass M h ~ 3 × 10 12 h –1 M ⊙ regardless of their color. This result implies that a quasar's large-scale halo environment is not strongly connected to its observed optical color. We also confirm the findings of fundamental differences in the radio properties of red and blue quasars by stacking 1.4 GHz FIRST images at their positions, suggesting the observed differences cannot be attributed to orientation. Instead, the differences between red and blue quasars likely arise on nuclear-galactic scales, perhaps owing to reddening by a nuclear dusty wind. Finally, we show that optically selected quasars' halo environments are also independent of their r – W2 optical–infrared colors, while previous work has suggested that mid-infrared-selected obscured quasars occupy more massive halos. We discuss the implications of this result for models of quasar and galaxy coevolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Identification and Analysis of Backwater Nursery Habitats in the Middle Green River, Utah, during 2014, 2017, and 2018 Using High-Resolution Optical Remotely Sensed Imagery

Low-velocity channel-margin habitats, known as backwaters, serve as important nursery habitats for the endangered Colorado pikeminnow (Ptychocheilus lucius) in the middle Green River between Jensen and Ouray, Utah. The backwater synthesis report for the 1987–2013 period (Grippo et al. 2017) reported a decreased number of backwaters per river mile (RM) and an increased mean backwater size across the middle Green River. Information about backwaters is critical for understanding habitat characteristics that are important for Colorado pikeminnow recruitment. The goal of this study was to determine backwater number and size in the middle Green River using high-resolution imagery for 2018 to add to our understanding of long-term trends of backwater habitat availability across the reach. For comparative analysis of backwater habitats between 2004 and 2018, information for 2004, 2006, 2013, 2014 and 2017 from our previous studies was also utilized (Grippo et al. 2017; Hamada et al. 2017, 2021, and in review). Across the 2004, 2006, 2013, 2014, 2017, and 2018 study years, mean daily flow at the Jensen gage during image collection ranged from 1,220 cfs (2004) to 2,940 cfs (2014), which was approximately 140% greater in 2014 than in 2004. The number of delineated backwaters ranged from 88 (2013) to 245 (2017), and total backwater area ranged from 118,938 m 2 (2006) to 209,611 m 2 (2014). Mean backwater size ranged from 822 m 2 (2017) to 1,508 m 2 (2018), but there was considerable variability in backwater size for each of the study years. Backwater areas differed significantly among the study years based on a Kruskal-Wallis Rank Sum test ( P < 0.001). Pairwise Wilcoxon tests indicated that the median backwater areas in 2017 and 2014 were significantly lower than in the other sample years ( P ≤ 0.05), even though these years had the highest total backwater area. 2018 had the greatest median backwater area, although the distribution of backwater area values was not statistically different from backwater areas measured in 2013 ( P > 0.05). These two years also had the lowest maximum backwater area values among all sample years. The distribution of backwater area values was not significantly different ( P > 0.05) among the 2006, 2004, and 2013 sample years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

A review of machine learning in building load prediction

The surge of machine learning in recent years has been empowering engineer modeling in various fields. The decreasing hardware cost, increasing data accessibility, and advances of building automation system (BAS) allow the collection and storage of a significant amount of building operation data. The two facts provide great opportunities of applying machine learning to building energy systems modeling and analysis. There are a great number of research papers on this topic but there lacks a comprehensive and general review to summarize the current development, limitations, gaps and future trend. In this review paper series, machine learning techniques in building energy system modeling and analysis are reviewed under the organization and logic of the machine learning definition by Tom M. Mitchell: a computer program is said to learn from experience E with respect to some class of tasks T and performance measure P if its performance at tasks in T, as measured by P, improves with experience E. This paper is the first part of the review paper series, which focuses on building load prediction. First, the applications of building load prediction model (task T) are reviewed. Then, the modeling algorithms improving machine learning performance and accuracy (performance P) are reviewed. At the same time, the literature on the data perspective for modeling (experience E), including data engineering from sensors level to data level, pre-processing, feature extraction and selection, is reviewed. Finally, what is well-studied and what is lacking but with great potential are concluded; the gaps between present and future utilization of machine learning techniques are identified; the future trend and development are also predicted. The target readers of this paper are not only researchers from the building side who can get exposed to cutting edge machine learning tools, but also those from machine learning side who can understand the potential and challenge to apply machine learning in buildings.

Liang, Zhang↗
DOE OSTI2023

Summary report of the 4th IAEA Technical Meeting on Fusion Data Processing, Validation and Analysis (FDPVA)

The objective of the Fourth Technical Meeting on Fusion Data Processing, Validation and Analysis was to provide a platform during which a set of topics relevant to fusion data processing, validation and analysis are discussed with the view of extrapolating needs to next step fusion devices such as ITER. The validation and analysis of experimental data obtained from diagnostics used to characterize fusion plasmas are crucial for a knowledge-based understanding of the physical processes governing the dynamics of these plasmas. This paper presents the recent progress and achievements in the domain of plasma diagnostics and synthetic diagnostics data analysis (including image processing, regression analysis, inverse problems, deep learning, machine learning, big data and physics-based models for control) reported at the meeting. The progress in these areas highlight trends observed in current major fusion confinement devices. A special focus is dedicated on data analysis requirements for ITER and DEMO with a particular attention paid to artificial intelligence for automatization and improving reliability of control processes.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Nonlinear Photovoltaic Degradation Rates: Modeling and Comparison Against Conventional Methods

Although common practice for estimating photovoltaic (PV) degradation rate (RD) assumes a linear behavior, field data have shown that degradation rates are frequently nonlinear. This article presents a new methodology to detect and calculate nonlinear RD based on PV performance time-series from nine different systems over an eight-year period. Prior to performing the analysis and in order to adjust model parameters to reflect actual PV operation, synthetic datasets were utilized for calibration purposes. A change-point analysis is then applied to detect changes in the slopes of PV trends, which are extracted from constructed performance ratio (PR) time-series. Once the number and location of change points is found, the ordinary least squares method is applied to the different segments to compute the corresponding rates. The obtained results verified that the extracted trends from the PR time-series may not always be linear and therefore, “nonconventional” models need to be applied. All thin-film technologies demonstrated nonlinear behavior whereas nonlinearity detected in the crystalline silicon systems is thought to be due to a maintenance event. A comparative analysis between the new methodology and other conventional methods demonstrated levelized cost of energy differences of up to 6.14%, highlighting the importance of considering nonlinear degradation behavior

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Atmospheric Variability Drives Anomalies in the Bering Sea Air–Sea Heat Exchange

Abstract High latitudes, including the Bering Sea, are experiencing unprecedented rates of change. Long-term Bering Sea warming trends have been identified, and marine heatwaves (MHWs), event-scale elevated sea surface temperature (SST) extremes, have also increased in frequency and longevity in recent years. Recent work has shown that variability in air–sea coupling plays a dominant role in driving Bering Sea upper-ocean thermal variability and that surface forcing has driven an increase in the occurrence of positive ocean temperature anomalies since 2010. In this work, we characterize the drivers of the anomalous surface air–sea heat fluxes in the Bering Sea over the period 2010–22 using ERA5 fields. We show that the surface turbulent heat flux dominates the net surface heat flux variability from September to April and is primarily a result of near-surface air temperature and specific humidity anomalies. The airmass anomalies that account for the majority of the turbulent heat flux variability are a function of wind direction, with southerly (northerly) wind advecting anomalously warm (cool), moist (dry) air over the Bering Sea, resulting in positive (negative) surface turbulent flux anomalies. During the remaining months of the year, anomalies in the surface radiative fluxes account for the majority of the net surface heat flux variability and are a result of anomalous cloud coverage, anomalous lower-tropospheric virtual temperature, and sea ice coverage variability. Our results indicate that atmospheric variability drives much of the Bering Sea upper-ocean temperature variability through the mediation of the surface heat fluxes during the analysis period. Significance Statement A long-term ocean warming trend and a recent increase in marine heatwaves in the Bering Sea have been identified. Previous work showed that anomalies in the exchange of heat between the ocean and the atmosphere were the primary driver of Bering Sea temperature variability, but the processes responsible for the heat exchange anomalies were unknown. In this work, we show that the atmosphere is the primary driver of anomalies in the Bering Sea air–sea heat exchange and therefore plays an important role in altering the thermal state of the Bering Sea. Our results highlight the importance of understanding more about how the ocean and the atmosphere interact at high latitudes and how this relationship will be affected by future climate change.

Hayden, Emily E. [a College of Earth, Ocean, and A↗