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Investigation of the effects of soluble boron tracking on coupled CTF / NEM, LWR simulations

The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the effects of introducing a boron tracking capability to the COBRA-TF / NEM code coupling. The Pennsylvania State University (PSU) versions of COBRA-TF - CTF, and Nodal Expansion Method (NEM) codes are utilized. Previous implementations of the CTF / NEM coupled code had no capability to model soluble boron feedback effects due to boron transport. This study builds upon the validation and qualification efforts of the boron tracking model implementation in CTF by modeling the boron feedback calculated by the CTF boron tracking model in NEM. The core model chosen for this study is the Purdue MOX/UO{sub 2} core model used in the 2007 OECD/NRC code benchmark study. Following the implementation of an explicit online coupling scheme and accompanying k-search routine, the newly coupled CTF / NEM code version with boron tracking is compared to prior results of the non-boron tracking CTF / NEM code version at steady-state hot full power and hot zero power conditions. It was found that the boron tracking model exhibited little influence on the hot zero power result as expected due to a smaller heat flux, which does not significantly change the moderator density and boron concentration as the moderator travels up the axial core length. Meanwhile the boron tracking model had a much greater impact on the hot full power results, predicting the critical inlet boron concentration to be 9.9 ppm below the non-boron tracking result due to greater and more rapid changes in boron concentration corresponding to the reduction in moderator density from being more rapidly heated. (authors)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

An Adaptive Tracking Algorithm for Convection in Simulated and Remote Sensing Data

A robust and computationally efficient object tracking algorithm is developed by incorporating various tracking techniques. Physical properties of the objects, such as brightness temperature or reflectivity, are not considered. Therefore, the algorithm is adaptable for tracking convection-like features in simulated data and remotely sensed two-dimensional images. In this algorithm, a first guess of the motion, estimated using the Fourier phase shift, is used to predict the candidates for matching. A disparity score is computed for each target–candidate pair. The disparity also incorporates overlapping criteria in the case of large objects. Then the Hungarian method is applied to identify the best pairs by minimizing the global disparity. The high-disparity pairs are unmatched, and their target and candidate are declared expired and newly initiated objects, respectively. They are tested for merger and split on the basis of their size and overlap with the other objects. The sensitivity of track duration is shown for different disparity and size thresholds. The report highlights the algorithm’s ability to study convective life cycles using radar and simulated data over Darwin, Australia. The algorithm skillfully tracks individual convective cells (a few pixels in size) and large convective systems. The duration of tracks and cell size are found to be lognormally distributed over Darwin. The evolution of size and precipitation types of isolated convective cells is presented in the Lagrangian perspective. This algorithm is part of a vision for a modular platform [viz., TINT is not TITAN (TINT) and Tracking and Object-Based Analysis of Clouds (tobac)] that will evolve into a sustainable choice to analyze atmospheric features.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Charged Particle Tracking via Edge-Classifying Interaction Networks

Recent work has demonstrated that geometric deep learning methods such as graph neural networks (GNNs) are well suited to address a variety of reconstruction problems in high-energy particle physics. In particular, particle tracking data are naturally represented as a graph by identifying silicon tracker hits as nodes and particle trajectories as edges, given a set of hypothesized edges, edge-classifying GNNs identify those corresponding to real particle trajectories. In this work, we adapt the physics-motivated interaction network (IN) GNN toward the problem of particle tracking in pileup conditions similar to those expected at the high-luminosity Large Hadron Collider. Assuming idealized hit filtering at various particle momenta thresholds, we demonstrate the IN’s excellent edge-classification accuracy and tracking efficiency through a suite of measurements at each stage of GNN-based tracking: graph construction, edge classification, and track building. The proposed IN architecture is substantially smaller than previously studied GNN tracking architectures; this is particularly promising as a reduction in size is critical for enabling GNN-based tracking in constrained computing environments. Furthermore, the IN may be represented as either a set of explicit matrix operations or a message passing GNN. Efforts are underway to accelerate each representation via heterogeneous computing resources towards both high-level and low-latency triggering applications.

accelerator physics↗

Alpha-decay induced shortening of fission tracks simulated by in situ ion irradiation

The diffusion of defects (e.g., vacancies and interstitials) and elements used for dating (e.g., He and Pb) in a mineral structure is a thermal process: This is the primary assumption used to determine the age and thermal history of minerals. For instance, thermal history reconstruction, through the number and length distribution of tracks produced by spontaneous fission of 238 U, is obtained by assuming a thermal event to be the only energy source for shortening of fission tracks. Here, we report a new, non-thermal energy source that induces additional shortening of fission tracks by the irradiation of alpha-recoils from the alpha-decay of 238 U and 232 Th. We simulate alpha-decay induced track-shortening by combining ion accelerator irradiations with transmission electron microscopy. This allows for the first observation of track-shrinkage during in situ ion irradiation. We show that rather than alpha-particles, alpha-recoils induce a significant shortening of fission tracks by nuclear-collisions. The shortening of track-length can be quantified as a function of alpha-decay event dose. However, apatite is less sensitive than zircon to this non-thermal process. Furthermore, the findings exemplify the interactions among different types of self-irradiation from alpha-particles, alpha-recoils and fission-fragment nuclei in single mineral grains and have important implications for the use of zircon and apatite for radiometric dating and thermochronology.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Time-Lapse Monitoring of DNA Damage Colocalized With Particle Tracks in Single Living Cells

Purpose: Understanding the DNA damage and repair induced by hadron therapy (HT) beams is crucial for developing novel strategies to maximize the use of HT beams to treat cancer patients. However, spatiotemporal studies of DNA damage and repair for beam energies relevant to HT have been challenging. We report a technique that enables spatiotemporal measurement of radiation-induced damage in live cells and colocalization of this damage with charged particle tracks over a broad range of clinically relevant beam energies. The technique uses novel fluorescence nuclear track detectors with fluorescence confocal laser scanning microscopy in the beam line to visualize particle track traversals within the subcellular compartments of live cells within seconds after injury. Methods and Materials: We designed and built a portable fluorescence confocal laser scanning microscope for use in the beam path, coated fluorescence nuclear track detectors with fluorescent-tagged live cells (HT1080 expressing enhanced green fluorescent protein tagged to XRCC1, a single-strand break repair protein), placed the entire assembly into a proton therapy beam line, and irradiated the cells with a fluence of ∼1 × 10{sup 6} protons/cm{sup 2}. Results: We successfully obtained confocal images of proton tracks and foci of DNA single-strand breaks immediately after irradiation. Conclusions: This technique represents an innovative method for analyzing biological responses in any HT beam line at energies and dose rates relevant to therapy. It allows precise determination of the number of tracks traversing a subcellular compartment and monitoring the cellular damage therein, and has the potential to measure the linear energy transfer of each track from therapeutic beams.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

The straw tracking detector for the Fermilab Muon g-2 Experiment

The Muon g-2 Experiment at Fermilab uses a gaseous straw tracking detector to make detailed measurements of the stored muon beam profile, which are essential for the experiment to achieve its uncertainty goals. Positrons from muon decays spiral inward and pass through the tracking detector before striking an electromagnetic calorimeter. The tracking detector is therefore located inside the vacuum chamber in a region where the magnetic field is large and non-uniform. As such, the tracking detector must have a low leak rate to maintain a high-quality vacuum, must be non-magnetic so as not to perturb the magnetic field and, to minimize energy loss, must have a low radiation length. The performance of the tracking detector has met or surpassed the design requirements, with adequate electronic noise levels, an average straw hit resolution of (110 ± 20) μm, a detection efficiency of 97% or higher, and no performance degradation or signs of aging. The tracking detector's measurements result in an otherwise unachievable understanding of the muon's beam motion, particularly at early times in the experiment's measurement period when there are a significantly greater number of muons decaying. This is vital to the statistical power of the experiment, as well as facilitating the precise extraction of several systematic corrections and uncertainties. This paper describes the design, construction, testing, commissioning, and performance of the tracking detector.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A Study of a Mini-Drift GEM Tracking Detector

In this paper, a GEM tracking detector with an extended drift region has been studied as part of an effort to develop new tracking detectors for future experiments at RHIC and for the Electron Ion Collider that is being planned for BNL or JLAB. The detector consists of a triple GEM stack with a 1.6 cm drift region that was operated in a mini TPC type configuration. Both the position and arrival time of the charge deposited in the drift region were measured on the readout plane which allowed the reconstruction of a short vector for the track traversing the chamber. The resulting position and angle information from the vector could then be used to improve the position resolution of the detector for larger angle tracks, which deteriorates rapidly with increasing angle for conventional GEM tracking detectors using only charge centroid information. Two types of readout planes were studied. One was a COMPASS style readout plane with 400 μm pitch XY strips and the other consisted of 2 × 10 mm 2 chevron pads. The detector was studied in test beams at Fermilab and CERN, along with additional measurements in the lab, in order to determine its position and angular resolution for incident track angles up to 45 degrees. Several algorithms were studied for reconstructing the vector using the position and timing information in order to optimize the position and angular resolution of the detector for the different readout planes. Finally, applications for large angle tracking detectors at RHIC and EIC are also discussed.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The impact of cine EPID image acquisition frame rate on markerless soft-tissue tracking

Purpose: Although reduction of the cine electronic portal imaging device (EPID) acquisition frame rate through multiple frame averaging may reduce hardware memory burden and decrease image noise, it can hinder the continuity of soft-tissue motion leading to poor autotracking results. The impact of motion blurring and image noise on the tracking performance was investigated. Methods: Phantom and patient images were acquired at a frame rate of 12.87 Hz with an amorphous silicon portal imager (AS1000, Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA). The maximum frame rate of 12.87 Hz is imposed by the EPID. Low frame rate images were obtained by continuous frame averaging. A previously validated tracking algorithm was employed for autotracking. The difference between the programmed and autotracked positions of a Las Vegas phantom moving in the superior-inferior direction defined the tracking error (δ). Motion blurring was assessed by measuring the area change of the circle with the greatest depth. Additionally, lung tumors on 1747 frames acquired at 11 field angles from four radiotherapy patients are manually and automatically tracked with varying frame averaging. δ was defined by the position difference of the two tracking methods. Image noise was defined as the standard deviation of the background intensity. Motion blurring and image noise are correlated with δ using Pearson correlation coefficient (R). Results: For both phantom and patient studies, the autotracking errors increased at frame rates lower than 4.29 Hz. Above 4.29 Hz, changes in errors were negligible withδ < 1.60 mm. Motion blurring and image noise were observed to increase and decrease with frame averaging, respectively. Motion blurring and tracking errors were significantly correlated for the phantom (R = 0.94) and patient studies (R = 0.72). Moderate to poor correlation was found between image noise and tracking error with R −0.58 and −0.19 for both studies, respectively. Conclusions: Cine EPID image acquisition at the frame rate of at least 4.29 Hz is recommended. Motion blurring in the images with frame rates below 4.29 Hz can significantly reduce the accuracy of autotracking.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

SU-D-18A-05: Assessing Elekta MLC Tracking Performance

Purpose: To investigate the technical feasibility of using Elekta MLCs in tracked radiotherapy, specifically to show the capability of an Agility MLC to follow model tumor trajectories using object tracking. The system performance of the MLC is to be assessed via dosimetric experiments and temporal response measures. Methods: The system observer in the tracking cascade consisted of a camera serving for this proof of concept; Images of a moving object were acquired continuously and decorrelated for the position information, which was fed forward to the RT computer controlling the MLC via an interface provided by Elekta. The 1D motion (in the direction of the leaves) was induced by a CIRS motion controller. Additionally, the aperture position was observed by means of the light field of the linac. Calculating the phase between aperture and object yielded the mean aperture lag for the current setup. The object was restricted to sinusoidal motion with a period of 10s. For dosimetry, GafChromic radiosensitive film was irradiated with a total dose of 1000MU using an aperture size of 40mm and a motion range of 30mm. Results: Object tracking can substantially reconstruct the geometric dose response of a static target. In the dynamic case, dose is smeared out into the legs of the static distribution, leading to a reduced plateau and increased FWHM of 5mm, compared to the static width of 38mm. The time-lag between object and aperture was determined to be approximately 300ms for the current set-up. Conclusion: We demonstrated a tracking experiment performed on a clinical Elekta linear accelator for the first time. Observed profile variations show the dosimetric impact of tracked delivery. The determined lag is a valuable descriptor for a future tracking cascade employing predictor filters. The performed experiments are generic and possible predecessors for future applications with MR-Linac or ultrasound probes. Conflict of interest: this project is partly funded by Elekta.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Compensation of Axis Errors of Azimuth and Zenith Moving Concentrators in Programmable Solar-Tracking Systems

The solar-energy industry is currently concerned with improving software systems of sun-tracking concentrators. It is a feature of programmable tracking that there is no feedback from the tracked object, unlike in the case of optical tracking. In this regard, the accuracy of programmable tracking is affected by a large number of factors—in particular, axis-alignment errors. An error-checking algorithm is considered for the azimuth and zenith concentrator axes in programmable sun tracking. Effects of these errors on the accuracy of programmable tracking are assessed. It is shown that zenith axis errors have the same amount of influence as the vertical deviation of the azimuth axis, primarily affecting the azimuth angle, while its influence on the solar elevation can be neglected. The cumulative effect of axial errors is most noticeable when they have the same signs and lie in the same plane.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Automatically Finding Ship-Tracks to Enable Large-Scale Analysis of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions

Ship tracks appear as long winding linear features in satellite images and are produced by aerosols from ship exhausts changing low cloud properties. They are one of the best examples of aerosol‐cloud interaction experiments. However, manually finding ship tracks from satellite data on a large scale is prohibitively costly while a large number of samples are required to improve our understanding. Here we train a deep neural network to automate finding ship tracks. The neural network model generalizes well as it not only finds ship tracks labeled by human experts but also detects those that are occasionally missed by humans. It finds more ship tracks than all previous studies combined and produces a map of ship track distributions off the California coast that matches well with known shipping traffic. Our technique will enable studying aerosol effects on low clouds using ship tracks on a large scale, which will potentially narrow the uncertainty of the aerosol‐cloud interactions.

aerosol cloud interactions↗

Automated Tracking of Shallow Maritime Clouds on Geostationary Imagery to Extract Lifecycle Characteristics

Shallow moist convection is ubiquitous throughout the tropics and represents a key player in boundary layer processes. Satellites have provided valuable insight on shallow clouds, such as size, structure, and geographical coverage, from static views of recurring cloud fields. But determining why certain cloud features appear and persist for different periods requires a time-evolving view of their behaviors. Geostationary satellites provide a unique opportunity to follow the time evolution of individual convective features, given their enhanced spatial and temporal sampling. A cloud-tracking tool was developed to identify properties of cloud lifecycle from the NASA Cloud, Aerosol, and Monsoon Processes Philippines Experiment (CAMP2EX) field campaign of 2019. The mission conducted intensive sampling of shallow cumulus in the West Pacific Ocean, in tandem with Rapid Scan imagery from the Advanced Himawari Imager (AHI) on the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA) Himawari-8 satellite. Shallow cumulus were segmented according to thresholds in 0.5-km visible reflectance and with blurring techniques. Despite being limited to daytime hours, the segmentations yielded the best resolution available for capturing cloud initiation, growth, and decay. The tracking procedure is based on a computer vision package that includes Kalman filters for motion prediction, object overlap search, and the Hungarian (or Kuhn-Munkres) matching algorithm for track designation. AHI radiances available within the tracked cloud boundaries are assembled to form individual spectral histories. The resulting catalog provides thousands of cloud histories for domains measuring only a few degrees in latitude and longitude. We present an overview of the cloud-tracking tool and its results for cloud fields sampled throughout CAMP2EX by the airborne P-3. Cloud tracks were selected from about 10 flights to form ensembles, specific groups of tracks occurring in a region with airborne sampling. Cloud lifecycle properties, including duration and maximum area, are calculated for all ensemble members, and analyzed for cloud behavior and P-3 coincidences. By following this strategy, we quantitatively assess the degree of airborne sampling for specific cloud classes defined by the lifecycle calculations. We can summarize which cloud classes had more sampling, the stage of development during sampling, and general differences in character (e.g., isolated congestus vs. cold-pool producer).

Cloud Tracking↗

Data Fusion for a Vision-Radiological System for Source Tracking and Discovery

A multidisciplinary approach to allow the tracking of the movement of radioactive sources by fusing data from multiple radiological and visual sensors is under development. The goal is to improve the ability to detect, locate, track and identify nuclear/radiological threats. The key concept is that such widely available visual and depth sensors can impact radiological detection, since the intensity fall-off in the count rate can be correlated to movement in three dimensions. To enable this, we pose an important question; what is the right combination of sensing modalities and vision algorithms that can best compliment a radiological sensor, for the purpose of detection and tracking of radioactive material? Similarly what is the best radiation detection methods and unfolding algorithms suited for data fusion with tracking data? Data fusion of multi-sensor data for radiation detection have seen some interesting developments lately. Significant examples include intelligent radiation sensor systems (IRSS), which are based on larger numbers of distributed similar or identical radiation sensors coupled with position data for network capable to detect and locate radiation source. Other developments are gamma-ray imaging systems based on Compton scatter in segmented detector arrays. Similar developments using coded apertures or scatter cameras for neutrons have recently occurred. The main limitation of such systems is not so much in their capability but rather in their complexity and cost which is prohibitive for large scale deployment. Presented here is a fusion system based on simple, low-cost computer vision and radiological sensors for tracking of multiple objects and identifying potential radiological materials being transported or shipped. The main focus of this work is the development on two separate calibration algorithms for characterizing the fused sensor system. The deviation from a simple inverse square-root fall-off of radiation intensity is explored and accounted for. In particular, the computer vision system enables a map of distance-dependence of the sources being tracked. Infrared, laser or stereoscopic vision sensors are all options for computer-vision implementation depending on interior vs exterior deployment, resolution desired and other factors. Similarly the radiation sensors will be focused on gamma-ray or neutron detection due to the long travel length and ability to penetrate even moderate shielding. There is a significant difference between the vision sensors and radiation sensors in the way the 'source' or signals are generated. A vision sensor needs an external light-source to illuminate the object and then detects the re-emitted illumination (or lack thereof). However, for a radiation detector, the radioactive material is the source itself. The only exception to this is the field of active interrogations where radiation is beamed into a material to entice new/additional radiation emission beyond what the material would emit spontaneously. The aspect of the nuclear material being the source itself means that all other objects in the environment are 'illuminated' or irradiated by the source. Most radiation will readily penetrate regular material, scatter in new directions or be absorbed. Thus if a radiation source is located near a larger object that object will in turn scatter some radiation that was initially emitted in a direction other than the direction of the radiation detector, this can add to the count rate that is observed. The effect of these scatter is a deviation from the traditional distance dependence of the radiation signal and is a key challenge that needs a combined system calibration solution and algorithms. Thus both an algebraic approach as well as a statistical approach have been developed and independently evaluated to investigate the sensitivity to this deviation from the simplified radiation fall-off as a function of distance. The resulting calibrated system algorithms are used and demonstrated in various laboratory scenarios, and later in realistic tracking scenarios. The selection and testing of radiological and computer-vision sensors for the additional specific scenarios will be the subject of ongoing and future work. (authors)

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A formalism for extracting track functions from jet measurements

The continued success of the jet substructure program will require widespread use of tracking information to enable increasingly precise measurements of a broader class of observables. The recent reformulation of jet substructure in terms of energy correlators has simplified the incorporation of universal non-perturbative matrix elements, so called “track functions”, in jet substructure calculations. These advances make it timely to understand how these universal non-perturbative functions can be extracted from hadron collider data, which is complicated by the use jet algorithms. In this paper we introduce a new class of jet functions, which we call (semi-inclusive) track jet functions, which describe measurements of the track energy fraction in identified jets. These track jet functions can be matched onto the universal track functions, with perturbatively calculable matching coefficients that incorporate the jet algorithm dependence. We perform this matching, and present phenomenological results for the charged energy fraction in jets at the LHC and EIC/HERA at collinear next-to-leading logarithmic accuracy. We show that higher moments of the charged energy fraction directly exhibit non-linear Lorentzian renormalization group flows, allowing the study of these flows with collider data. Our factorization theorem enables the extraction of universal track functions from jet measurements, opening the door to their use for a precision jet substructure program.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Particle filter-based modulation domain infrared targets tracking

Faced with problems of low contrast, poor SNR, and relatively complicated tracking environment, stable infrared target tracking is worth researching for its many potential applications. In this paper, instead of traditional target tracking in the pixel domain, we propose a sampling importance resampling (SIR) particle filter method with indirect velocity measurements to track infrared targets in the modulation domain. The dominant amplitude modulation (AM) features used for tracking is extracted by decomposing the input image using an 18-channel Gabor filter bank followed by the application of the dominant component analysis approach. The dominant AM modulation features provide a significant partial texture characteristic of the target which can be separated from background with better discrimination. To take advantage of observed kinematics, we utilize the augmented state vector with indirect velocity information via combining the measurements of velocity in adjacent frames to the SIR particle filter framework, which weakens weights of particles with bad velocity estimates but still having association with the cluttered background or other moving objects. A dynamic template update strategy is also provided to prevent the tracker from appearance model drift. Experiments indicate that the proposed method is effective for raising the tracking accuracy compared with other tracking methods.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Invisible ship tracks show large cloud sensitivity to aerosol

Cloud reflectivity is sensitive to atmospheric aerosol concentrations because aerosols provide the condensation nuclei on which water condenses. Increased aerosol concentrations due to human activity affect droplet number concentration, liquid water and cloud fraction, but these changes are subject to large uncertainties. Ship tracks, long lines of polluted clouds that are visible in satellite images, are one of the main tools for quantifying aerosol–cloud interactions. However, only a small fraction of the clouds polluted by shipping show ship tracks. Here we show that even when no ship tracks are visible in satellite images, aerosol emissions change cloud properties substantially. We develop a new method to quantify the effect of shipping on all clouds, showing a cloud droplet number increase and a more positive liquid water response when there are no visible tracks. We directly detect shipping-induced cloud property changes in the trade cumulus regions of the Atlantic, which are known to display almost no visible tracks. Our results indicate that previous studies of ship tracks were suffering from selection biases by focusing only on visible tracks from satellite imagery. The strong liquid water path response we find translates to a larger aerosol cooling effect on the climate, potentially masking a higher climate sensitivity than observed temperature trends would otherwise suggest.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Different X-ray spectral evolution for black hole X-ray binaries in dual tracks of radio-X-ray correlation

Recently, an 'outlier' track of radio-X-ray correlation was found, which is much steeper than the former universal correlation, where dual tracks were speculated to be triggered by different accretion processes. In this work, we test this issue by exploring hard X-ray spectral evolution in four black-hole X-ray binaries with multiple, quasi-simultaneous radio and X-ray observations. First, we find that hard X-ray photon indices, Γ, are negatively and positively correlated with X-ray fluxes when the X-ray flux, F{sub 3-9} {sub keV}, is below and above a critical flux, F{sub X,} {sub crit}, which are consistent with predictions of the advection-dominated accretion flow and the disk-corona model, respectively. Second, and most importantly, we find that the radio-X-ray correlations are also clearly different when the X-ray fluxes are higher and lower than the critical flux as defined by X-ray spectral evolution. The data points with F{sub 3-9} {sub keV} ≳ F{sub X,} {sub crit} have a steeper radio-X-ray correlation (F{sub X}∝F{sub R}{sup b} and b ∼ 1.1-1.4), which roughly forms the ''outlier'' track. However, the data points with anti-correlation of Γ – F{sub 3-9} {sub keV} either stay in the universal track with b ∼ 0.61 or stay in the transition track (from the universal to 'outlier' tracks or vice versa). Therefore, our results support that the universal and ''outlier'' tracks of radio-X-ray correlations are regulated by radiatively inefficient and radiatively efficient accretion model, respectively.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Role of ocean coupling in the weakening of the extratropical storm tracks from Arctic sea ice loss

Abstract Within the changing climate, the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks have been projected to shift poleward and expand eastward. Changes in the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks arise from a variety of sometimes competing effects on the region's baroclinicity. Arctic amplification weakens the meridional temperature gradient, hence weakening the storm track, while low-latitude warming has the opposite effect, and surface-amplified warming at high latitudes reduces static stability. To determine the mechanisms driving these competing changes, we use a hierarchy of models with different levels of ocean-atmosphere coupling, using forcings from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) to assess the role of Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks. We find that ocean-atmosphere coupling enhances and sharpens the weakening of both the North Atlantic and North Pacific storm tracks in response to Arctic sea ice loss, that surface turbulent heat flux modulates the intensity of the weakening, and that local ocean dynamics controls the meridional location of the response. A moist isentropic diagnostic of the atmospheric overturning circulation shows that most of the weakening of the storm tracks and its associated changes in atmospheric heat transport (AHT) arise from a weakening of the transient eddy mass flux. Poleward of the storm tracks, the AHT also decreases, but through weakened effective stratification rather than weakening mass fluxes, an effect which occurs even in the absence of ocean dynamical coupling.

Audette, Alexandre (ORCID:0000000163321088)↗