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DOE OSTI2021

First Muon Neutrino on Argon Cross Section Measurements With an Off-Axis Beam

While over ninety years have passed since neutrinos were first predicted in 1930 by Wolfgang Pauli, much about them is still unknown [20]. How many types of neutrinos there are, how precisely neutrinos change flavor, and how neutrinos interact with various types of matter are largely unanswered questions that have implications for fields beyond particle physics, such as cosmology and astrophysics. The final question can be answered partially by differential cross section measurements, two of which constitute the primary result of this thesis. The NeUtrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) Beam at Fermilab in Batavia, IL provides a source of muon neutrinos and muon antineutrinos to the MicroBooNE experiment, an 85 ton liquid argon time projection chamber (LArTPC). The technology allows for high precision particle tracking and energy reconstruction that can be used to make cross section measurements. Necessary work for making these measurements for which the author of this thesis made an essential contribution is presented in detail in References [21] [22] [11] [23]. The measurement presented in this thesis is made with 2.187e20 Protons on Target (POT), the standard metric for an amount of beam exposure, of data when the beam was in forward horn current mode. Single-differential cross section measurements in terms of muon candidate kinetic energy and direction are made, and their statistical fits with simulation are 5.8 (12 d.o.f.) and 11.4 (10 d.o.f.), respectively. This indicates that the muon kinematics for muon neutrino and muon antineutrino charged-current (CC) events primarily in the energy range [0-3] GeV can be trusted for oscillation experiments, including DUNE, because of the agreement to within the associated systematic and statistical uncertainties between the measurement and the model in every bin of both single-differential cross sections. This result adds to the corresponding result for the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) because it covers a completely different energy region than that measurement, a double-differential cross section in terms of muon momentum and direction [14]. This result contributes to reducing the uncertainty in near-far event rate comparisons in long baseline neutrino experiments and also adds to existing knowledge of the neutrino-nucleus interaction by describing the outgoing muon kinematics in interactions of muon neutrinos and muon antineutrinos. This result is the first-ever measurement of differential cross sections of muon neutrinos and muon antineutrinos in liquid argon made with an off-axis beam.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

NASA NTRS2014

Direct Numerical Simulation of a Weakly Stratified Turbulent Wake

Direct numerical simulation (DNS) is used to investigate a time-dependent turbulent wake evolving in a stably stratified background. A large initial Froude number is chosen to allow the wake to become fully turbulent and axisymmetric before stratification affects the spreading rate of the mean defect. The uncertainty introduced by the finite sample size associated with gathering statistics from a simulation of a time-dependent flow is reduced, compared to earlier simulations of this flow. The DNS reveals the buoyancy-induced changes to the turbulence structure, as well as to the mean-defect history and the terms in the mean-momentum and turbulence-kinetic-energy budgets, that characterize the various states of this flow - namely the three-dimensional (essentially unstratified), non-equilibrium (or 'wake-collapse') and quasi-two-dimensional (or 'two-component') regimes observed elsewhere for wakes embedded in both weakly and strongly stratified backgrounds. The wake-collapse regime is not accompanied by transfer (or 'reconversion') of the potential energy of the turbulence to the kinetic energy of the turbulence, implying that this is not an essential feature of stratified-wake dynamics. The dependence upon Reynolds number of the duration of the wake-collapse period is demonstrated, and the effect of the details of the initial/near-field conditions of the wake on its subsequent development is examined.

Redford, J. A.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mesoscale simulation of granular materials under weak shock compaction–pore size distribution effects

This research established a systematic method to generate various pore-size distributions (PSDs) and studied the effect of PSDs on the shock compaction response of granular materials using two-dimensional mesoscale simulations under identical porosity. Simulations utilized various PSDs for three particle shapes (circle, ellipse, and square). Contacting particle configurations using three PSDs, characterized by spatially uniform distributed pores to heterogeneous distributed pores, and non-contacting particle configurations under a single case of PSD were tested. The PSD of generated particle sets was characterized using coordination number, mean diameter, and bimodality coefficient as statistical metrics. Mesoscale simulations showed that regardless of the conditions of pore distributions, shock compaction of granular materials consistently demonstrates a precursor, shock compaction front, and end. However, the shock compaction velocity of contacting particles was dependent on the PSDs despite the constant initial porosity. The compaction velocity was faster in particle configurations with relatively uniform pore distributions than in heterogeneous pore distributions, which our study demonstrated can be attributed to particle rearrangement during compaction. Circular-shaped particles had high sensitivity in shock compaction response to the various PSDs. Furthermore, a contacting particle configuration tended to propagate the shock compaction wave relatively faster than particles that were in a non-contact configuration. This study established the relative importance of considering PSD as a metric over the coordination number in studies of the shock compaction response of granular materials. Further, insights are provided on the evolving shock substructure to characterize the shock compaction response of granular materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS1986

Orbital flight simulation utility software unit specifications

The HP PASCAL source code contained in pages 6 through 104 was developed for the Mission Planning and Analysis Division (MPAD) and takes the place of detailed flow charts defining the specifications for a Utility Software Unit designed to support orbital flight simulators such as MANHANDLE and GREAS (General Research and Engineering Analysis Simulator). Besides providing basic input/output, mathematical, vector, matrix, quaternion, and statistical routines for such simulators, one of the primary functions of the Utility Software Unit is to isolate all system-dependent code in one well-defined compartment, thereby facilitating transportation of the simulations from one computer to another. Directives to the PASCAL compilers of the HP-9000 Series 200 PASCAL 3.0 operating system and the HP-9000 Series 500 HP-UX 5.0 operations systems are also provided.

Wilson, S. W.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Molecular Dynamics Simulation and Theoretical Analysis of Structural Relaxation, Bond Exchange Dynamics, and Glass Transition in Vitrimers

Vitrimers are a class of polymer networks featuring dynamic covalent cross-links that can undergo associative bond exchange. There has been recent interest in these materials due to their promise as recyclable thermosets or self-healing polymers because of the ability of vitrimer networks to rearrange at the molecular level and undergo macroscopic flow. However, the practical use of these materials often occurs in the supercooled regime or glassy state, where the implications of dynamic bonds are complicated by the interplay between slow activated segmental dynamics, cross-link (i.e., bond-exchange) kinetics, and ultimately material properties. Here, in this paper, we combine coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulation and microscopic statistical mechanical theory to understand how cross-linking kinetics affect material dynamics and how this couples to segmental relaxation of the polymeric network strands across a spectrum of length and time scales, especially in the supercooled regime. We characterize the Kuhn segmental alpha relaxation time and bond exchange time for vitrimer systems across various cross-link densities, temperatures, and bond exchange rates. Simulation and theory both exhibit a bending-up behavior for bond exchange time upon cooling, suggesting a coupling between bond exchange dynamics and segmental relaxation that intensifies with faster bond exchange kinetics. We also found bond exchange dynamics have an impact on Kuhn segment alpha relaxation time, which is most significant at higher cross-link densities. Both these effects are most prominent when the bond exchange time is similar to the Kuhn segment alpha relaxation time, and the resulting coupling of these two relaxation processes is tied to both the probability of a free end to find a bonded pair and the time scale of the constraints imposed by the dynamic cross-links. This relationship is reflected by a cross-link dependence of a theoretical parameter which represents the quantitative degree of coupling between bond exchange and segmental dynamics. Overall, the combination of simulation and theory clarifies the intricate interaction between bond kinetics and segmental relaxation and demonstrates the ability to provide molecular-level insights into vitrimer dynamics over a wide temperature range.

dynamic relaxation↗

NASA NTRS2016

Innovative Approach for Developing Spacecraft Interior Acoustic Requirement Allocation

The Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) is an American spacecraft for carrying four astronauts during deep space missions. This paper describes an innovative application of Power Injection Method (PIM) for allocating Orion cabin continuous noise Sound Pressure Level (SPL) limits to the sound power level (PWL) limits of major noise sources in the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) during all mission phases. PIM is simulated using both Statistical Energy Analysis (SEA) and Hybrid Statistical Energy Analysis-Finite Element (SEA-FE) models of the Orion MPCV to obtain the transfer matrix from the PWL of the noise sources to the acoustic energies of the receivers, i.e., the cavities associated with the cabin habitable volume. The goal of the allocation strategy is to control the total energy of cabin habitable volume for maintaining the required SPL limits. Simulations are used to demonstrate that applying the allocated PWLs to the noise sources in the models indeed reproduces the SPL limits in the habitable volume. The effects of Noise Control Treatment (NCT) on allocated noise source PWLs are investigated. The measurement of source PWLs of involved fan and pump development units are also discussed as it is related to some case-specific details of the allocation strategy discussed here.

Chu, S. Reynold↗

NASA NTRS2016

Innovative Approach for Developing Spacecraft Interior Acoustic Requirement Allocation

Chu, S. Reynold↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of data driven low-rank matrix factorization for accelerated solutions of the Vlasov equation

Low-rank methods have shown success in accelerating simulations of a collisionless plasma described by the Vlasov equation, but still rely on computationally costly linear algebra every time step. We propose a data-driven factorization method using artificial neural networks, specifically with convolutional layer architecture, that trains on existing simulation data. At inference time, the model outputs a low-rank decomposition of the distribution field of the charged particles, and we demonstrate that this step is faster than the standard linear algebra technique. Numerical experiments show that the method achieves comparable reconstruction accuracy for interpolation tasks, generalizing to unseen test data in a manner beyond just memorizing training data; patterns in factorization also inherently followed the same numerical trend as those within algebraic methods (e.g., truncated singular-value decomposition). However, when training on the first 70% of a time-series data and testing on the remaining 30%, the method fails to meaningfully extrapolate. Despite this limiting result, the technique may have benefits for simulations in a statistical steady-state or otherwise showing temporal stability. These results suggest that while the model offers a computationally efficient alternative for datasets with temporal stability, its current formulation is best suited for interpolation rather than for predicting future states in time-evolving systems. This study thus lays the groundwork for further refinement of neural network-based approaches to low-rank matrix factorization in high-dimensional plasma simulations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1985

Analysis of a Simulated Cloud Climatology

Cloudiness simulations with the UCLA/Goddard general circulation model were analyzed by comparison of simulated and radiation statistics with corresponding observations. A description of the model formulation is given by Suarez et al. (1983), and some results are discussed by Randall et al. (1985). The global mean cloudiness is near 50%, in agreement with observations. However, comparison with the satellite observations of Susskind et al. (1983) shows that the model produces too many low level clouds at high latitudes and too few high clouds in the tropics. The simulated outgoing longwave radiation at the top of the atmosphere is too low in middle and high latitudes, and much too high in regions of deep convection. The most serious deficiency of the current model's cloudiness simulation is its gross underprediction of the cirrus cloudiness associated with deep convection.

Randall, D.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Unraveling the implications of finite specimen size on the interpretation of dynamic experiments for polycrystalline aluminum through direct numerical simulations

Normal and Pressure-shear plate impact (NPI and PSPI) experiments are popular experimental techniques for studying the mean-field macroscopic behavior of polycrystalline metals under high-rate dynamic loading. However, since both configurations rely upon geometry for subjecting the specimen to high strain rates, these experiments often involve a limited specimen size. Moreover, because of the inherent heterogeneities present within polycrystalline metals, it is difficult to ascertain if the size of the specimen and/or regions where measurements are made are sufficiently large for making representative inferences about the mean-field macroscopic properties from single-point velocity measurements. In the present study, we quantify the expected measurement variability on observable point measurements in NPI and PSPI experiments by carrying out direct numerical simulations (DNS) of statistically representative polycrystalline microstructures subjected to dynamic compression and compression-shear loading. In particular, we consider the role of specific material heterogeneities (e.g. the grain-to-grain difference in size, crystallographic orientation) on dispersion in the normal and transverse particle velocity records and on local fluctuations in key state variables (e.g. velocity, accumulated plastic strain) by incorporating these effects directly into a representative synthetic microstructure geometry and crystalline description of pure polycrystalline aluminum. The form of the present study is a large parametric investigation, consisting of ten ensembles of one hundred simulations. Each of the thousand simulations reflects a randomly realized synthetic microstructure in one of five cases of decreasing average grain size for the two loading configurations. Our analysis of the DNS results demonstrates that for both of these experimental configurations, the grain size directly correlates with the coefficient of variation (CV) in simulated point measurements, showing a convergent decrease in CV to zero (i.e. particle velocity record approaches the mean-field value) with decreasing grain size. Remarkably, the magnitude of variations in the particle velocity record is shown to be largest where the deviatoric stresses are most significant. In the case of NPI, this occurs at the elastic and plastic wavefront, whereas, in the case of PSPI, the magnitude of fluctuations are approximately constant throughout the experimental window time. The reasoning for the scatter in particle velocity due to the heterogeneous microstructure is demonstrated to be dependent on the mechanisms for accommodating deformation and on the interaction of reflection waves generated at sites of heterogeneities occurring at the scale of grains. Lastly, we develop a power-law description for the magnitude of scattering versus characteristic length, which provides a statistical framework for assessing the required number of grains per characteristic specimen dimension for minimizing scatter within these two experimental configurations (NPI, PSPI).

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

NASA NTRS2004

Methodolgy For Evaluation Of Technology Impacts In Space Electric Power Systems

The Analysis and Management branch of the Power and Propulsion Office at NASA Glenn Research Center is responsible for performing complex analyses of the space power and In-Space propulsion products developed by GRC. This work quantifies the benefits of the advanced technologies to support on-going advocacy efforts. The Power and Propulsion Office is committed to understanding how the advancement in space technologies could benefit future NASA missions. They support many diverse projects and missions throughout NASA as well as industry and academia. The area of work that we are concentrating on is space technology investment strategies. Our goal is to develop a Monte-Carlo based tool to investigate technology impacts in space electric power systems. The framework is being developed at this stage, which will be used to set up a computer simulation of a space electric power system (EPS). The outcome is expected to be a probabilistic assessment of critical technologies and potential development issues. We are developing methods for integrating existing spreadsheet-based tools into the simulation tool. Also, work is being done on defining interface protocols to enable rapid integration of future tools. Monte Carlo-based simulation programs for statistical modeling of the EPS Model. I decided to learn and evaluate Palisade's @Risk and Risk Optimizer software, and utilize it's capabilities for the Electric Power System (EPS) model. I also looked at similar software packages (JMP, SPSS, Crystal Ball, VenSim, Analytica) available from other suppliers and evaluated them. The second task was to develop the framework for the tool, in which we had to define technology characteristics using weighing factors and probability distributions. Also we had to define the simulation space and add hard and soft constraints to the model. The third task is to incorporate (preliminary) cost factors into the model. A final task is developing a cross-platform solution of this framework.

Holda, Julie↗

DOE OSTI2021

Impact of a New Cloud Microphysics Parameterization on the Simulations of Mesoscale Convective Systems in E3SM

Abstract Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are one of the most climatically significant forms of convection because of their large role in water and energy cycles. The mesoscale features associated with MCS are difficult to represent in climate models because the relevant dynamics and physics are absent or poorly represented with coarse model resolution (∼100 km). Using a regionally refined model (RRM) with 0.25° grid spacing embedded in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), we explore the impact of cloud microphysics parameterizations on the simulation of precipitation, particularly MCS precipitation over the contiguous United States. The Predicted Particle Properties (P3) cloud microphysics scheme has been modified and implemented into E3SM to overcome the limitations of the default Morrison and Gettelman (MG2) scheme in which rimed precipitating ice particles (graupel/hail) are absent and frozen particles are artificially partitioned into cloud ice and snow. We show that P3 improves the simulation of precipitation statistics including frequency distribution compared with MG2 with a limited effect on the diurnal cycle. P3 predicts higher hourly rain rates, resulting in 20% more MCSs and a higher total MCS precipitation (4.4%) compared to MG2, agreeing better with observations. The improvements with P3 mainly result from improved representations of ice microphysics, which not only produces higher rain rates through melting but also leads to a stronger large‐scale ascending motion by releasing more latent heating. This study suggests that improving microphysics parameterization is important for simulating MCS precipitation as future climate model resolutions continue to increase.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Microphysics of shock-grain interaction for inertial confinement fusion ablators in a fluid approach

Ablator materials used for inertial confinement fusion, such as high-density carbon (HDC) and beryllium, have grain structure which may lead to small-scale density nonuniformity and the generation of perturbations when the materials are shocked and compressed. Here, we use a combination of a linear theory of shock interaction with density nonuniformity [Velikovich et al., Phys. Plasmas 14, 072706 (2007)] and numerical simulations to study shock interaction with a model representation of HDC grains. While the shock-grain interaction is nonlinear, the linear theory shows some key features of the shock-grain interaction, which also hold for the (nonlinear) simulations. The postshock perturbations are made up of sonic reflections off of grain boundaries and vorticity deposition along them, with the latter dominating the perturbed energy content. The mean (per mass) postshock perturbed kinetic energy decreases with increasing grain size, but energy will be deposited at increasing spatial scale. From the perspective of the postshock perturbed energy, the detailed linear theory largely supports a proposed method [S. Davidovits et al., Phys. Plasmas 29, 112708 (2022)] for deresolving the grains (in a similar grains model) that treats the grains statistically. Finally, our simulation results highlight the influence of thermal conduction on the perturbation dynamics at grain scales.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Nonlinear Viscoelastic Model for Ceramics at High Temperatures

High-temperature creep behavior of ceramics is characterized by nonlinear time-dependent responses, asymmetric behavior in tension and compression, and nucleation and coalescence of voids leading to creep rupture. Moreover, creep rupture experiments show considerable scatter or randomness in fatigue lives of nominally equal specimens. To capture the nonlinear, asymmetric time-dependent behavior, the standard linear viscoelastic solid model is modified. Nonlinearity and asymmetry are introduced in the volumetric components by using a nonlinear function similar to a hyperbolic sine function but modified to model asymmetry. The nonlinear viscoelastic model is implemented in an ABAQUS user material subroutine. To model the random formation and coalescence of voids, each element is assigned a failure strain sampled from a lognormal distribution. An element is deleted when its volumetric strain exceeds its failure strain. Element deletion has been implemented within ABAQUS. Temporal increases in strains produce a sequential loss of elements (a model for void nucleation and growth), which in turn leads to failure. Nonlinear viscoelastic model parameters are determined from uniaxial tensile and compressive creep experiments on silicon nitride. The model is then used to predict the deformation of four-point bending and ball-on-ring specimens. Simulation is used to predict statistical moments of creep rupture lives. Numerical simulation results compare well with results of experiments of four-point bending specimens. The analytical model is intended to be used to predict the creep rupture lives of ceramic parts in arbitrary stress conditions.

Powers, Lynn M.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Hybrid Reynolds-Averaged/Large Eddy Simulation of a Cavity Flameholder; Assessment of Modeling Sensitivities

Steady-state and scale-resolving simulations have been performed for flow in and around a model scramjet combustor flameholder. The cases simulated corresponded to those used to examine this flowfield experimentally using particle image velocimetry. A variety of turbulence models were used for the steady-state Reynolds-averaged simulations which included both linear and non-linear eddy viscosity models. The scale-resolving simulations used a hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation strategy that is designed to be a large eddy simulation everywhere except in the inner portion (log layer and below) of the boundary layer. Hence, this formulation can be regarded as a wall-modeled large eddy simulation. This effort was undertaken to formally assess the performance of the hybrid Reynolds-averaged / large eddy simulation modeling approach in a flowfield of interest to the scramjet research community. The numerical errors were quantified for both the steady-state and scale-resolving simulations prior to making any claims of predictive accuracy relative to the measurements. The steady-state Reynolds-averaged results showed a high degree of variability when comparing the predictions obtained from each turbulence model, with the non-linear eddy viscosity model (an explicit algebraic stress model) providing the most accurate prediction of the measured values. The hybrid Reynolds-averaged/large eddy simulation results were carefully scrutinized to ensure that even the coarsest grid had an acceptable level of resolution for large eddy simulation, and that the time-averaged statistics were acceptably accurate. The autocorrelation and its Fourier transform were the primary tools used for this assessment. The statistics extracted from the hybrid simulation strategy proved to be more accurate than the Reynolds-averaged results obtained using the linear eddy viscosity models. However, there was no predictive improvement noted over the results obtained from the explicit Reynolds stress model. Fortunately, the numerical error assessment at most of the axial stations used to compare with measurements clearly indicated that the scale-resolving simulations were improving (i.e. approaching the measured values) as the grid was refined. Hence, unlike a Reynolds-averaged simulation, the hybrid approach provides a mechanism to the end-user for reducing model-form errors.

Baurle, R. A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deep learning closure models for large-eddy simulation of flows around bluff bodies

Near-wall flow simulation remains a central challenge in aerodynamics modelling: Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes predictions of separated flows are often inaccurate, and large-eddy simulation (LES) can require prohibitively small near-wall mesh sizes. A deep learning (DL) closure model for LES is developed by introducing untrained neural networks into the governing equations and training in situ for incompressible flows around rectangular prisms at moderate Reynolds numbers. The DL-LES models are trained using adjoint partial differential equation (PDE) optimization methods to match, as closely as possible, direct numerical simulation (DNS) data. They are then evaluated out-of-sample – for aspect ratios, Reynolds numbers and bluff-body geometries not included in the training data – and compared with standard LES models. The DL-LES models outperform these models and are able to achieve accurate LES predictions on a relatively coarse mesh (downsampled from the DNS mesh by factors of four or eight in each Cartesian direction). We study the accuracy of the DL-LES model for predicting the drag coefficient, near-wall and far-field mean flow, and resolved Reynolds stress. A crucial challenge is that the LES quantities of interest are the steady-state flow statistics; for example, a time-averaged velocity component $\langle {u}_i\rangle (x) = \lim _{t \rightarrow \infty } ({1}/{t}) \int _0^t u_i(s,x)\, {\rm d}s$ . Calculating the steady-state flow statistics therefore requires simulating the DL-LES equations over a large number of flow times through the domain. It is a non-trivial question whether an unsteady PDE model with a functional form defined by a deep neural network can remain stable and accurate on $t \in [0, \infty )$ , especially when trained over comparatively short time intervals. Our results demonstrate that the DL-LES models are accurate and stable over long time horizons, which enables the estimation of the steady-state mean velocity, fluctuations and drag coefficient of turbulent flows around bluff bodies relevant to aerodynamics applications.

Mechanics↗

NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Long-Term Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations Using Satellite Radiance Observations and Multi-Frequency Satellite Simulators

This paper proposes a methodology known as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Triple-Sensor Three-step Evaluation Framework (T3EF) for the systematic evaluation of precipitating cloud types and microphysics in a cloud-resolving model (CRM). T3EF utilizes multi-frequency satellite simulators and novel statistics of multi-frequency radiance and backscattering signals observed from the TRMM satellite. Specifically, T3EF compares CRM and satellite observations in the form of combined probability distributions of precipitation radar (PR) reflectivity, polarization-corrected microwave brightness temperature (Tb), and infrared Tb to evaluate the candidate CRM. T3EF is used to evaluate the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model for cases involving the South China Sea Monsoon Experiment (SCSMEX) and Kwajalein Experiment (KWAJEX). This evaluation reveals that the GCE properly captures the satellite-measured frequencies of different precipitating cloud types in the SCSMEX case but underestimates the frequencies of deep convective and deep stratiform types in the KWAJEX case. Moreover, the GCE tends to simulate excessively large and abundant frozen condensates in deep convective clouds as inferred from the overestimated GCE-simulated radar reflectivities and microwave Tb depressions. Unveiling the detailed errors in the GCE s performance provides the best direction for model improvements.

Matsui, Toshihisa↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Gaussian process autoregressive model capturing microstructure evolution paths in a Ni–Mo–Nb alloy

Additive manufacturing is increasingly being employed to produce components of complex geometries in structural alloys because of the expected energy savings associated with the near-net-shape capability and the ability to build in novel internal features that are not possible with many conventional manufacturing approaches. However, because of the extreme thermal conditions encountered, the non-equilibrium microstructures produced during powder bed-based additive manufacturing processes must be subjected to custom post-heat treatment processes to recover the target mechanical properties. Phase-field models and simulation techniques have matured to a state where the microstructure evolution paths, and the morphologies of the resulting precipitate phases can be predicted reasonably accurately, considering alloy-specific thermodynamic and kinetic aspects of the nucleation and growth processes. However, phase-field simulations are computationally intensive, which precludes the ability to apply the simulations directly to the length scale of the entire component. Therefore, it is highly desirable to develop low-computational-cost surrogate models that effectively capture the physics at the microstructural length scale, while facilitating the design of optimized processing conditions resulting in location-specific targeted microstructures at the component scale. The work presented here demonstrates the application of the materials knowledge system framework to develop a surrogate model that effectively captures the microstructural path during annealing of a Ni–Mo–Nb alloy containing different Mo and Nb compositions known to segregate during solidification under additive manufacturing conditions. Specifically, the surrogate model built in this work is based on a Gaussian process autoregressive model informed by statistical representation of simulated microstructures using two-point correlations and dimensionality reduction through principal component analysis. In conclusion, this surrogate model is shown to capture the bifurcation of the microstructural path during precipitation, which yields a microstructure dominated by the $\gamma^{\prime\prime}$ phase at high Nb concentrations and the $\delta$ phase at low Nb concentrations.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗